. >> we are like the mexican peso. ely strong economy. it's got half the debt of the united states. the peso has gone down but has stabilized and basically yields on a cash basis about 5%. it's not a bad dollup. >> the imf expects gdp growth in mexico to exceed 3% this year. exports also looking stronger in the next two years. check out the jobless rate here, guys. 4.5% expected for this year. that is lower than many developed countries right now, certainly lower than the united states and the lowest of all the mint economies. as for the stock market, it's down about 7% and the msci is down about 12% over the past one year. but it has doubled since the lows back in 2009. so is this a safe environment to put your money and why is everyone just so hot on the peso for 2014? >> let's bring in our guests now. joyce chang, from jpmorgan, someone who has been hot on mexico for awhile. well known to our viewers. tim seymour from trigem asset management. i want to start wit because i know you talked about mexico for awhile. our

we were talking about the argentinian peso. ot the turkish lira, really being hit. >> also, you see the strengthening of the japanese yen. a lot of things are coming together -- what has happened is we have seen the sharpest slump in emerging markets for x -- forex and almost five years. emerging-market economies have dropped below forecasts. a lot of these top trades, some of these banks recommended them a few months back, are in total disarray. if you went with it, you would have lost out on a lot of money. first, from bank of america-merrill lynch, they recommended in november to buy the mexican peso against the japanese yen. their expectation was you could make a 9.4% return. aboutactually a loss of 1.5%, if i'm not mistaken. the other one, buy the turkish lira. >> the spreads are going to be so big with these, as well. >> it is really -- i guess, just a note, the top trades i mentioned have already been abandoned. fairnessoint, in all to these forecasters, it is hard to predict. they didn't get it a very right or very wrong

dollars to try to stop the falling value of the peso. ency has fallen by 16% over the last two days. raising the prospect of a jump in inflation, which is already very high. we're joined from washington, d.c. from an economist, welco once again to al jazeera. the peso slumping against the u.s. dollar. inflation at almost 30%. why is argentina's economy in such a bad state. >> because they always put politics in front of economics. now what is happening right now? everybody is talking about the peso being devalued to 8 pesos per dollar, but the truth is it is still overvalued, it has to keep falling until it is consistent with what people are guying in the black market which is about $13. the president will have to do that. what she needs to do at this point is provide confidence to the citizens of argentina. and more importantly confidence to foreign investors -- >> how can she do that though? >> what she needs to do, her policies have been very populous, because i think for the way they were behaving, her husband and herself, is they wer

the peso for example, philippines peso is at a 3.5 year low. donesian rupiah is very close to a record low, just below 12,200. that is what you have for the thai baht. the indian rupee is also seeing pressure in the market right now. we are close to 63. >> thank you very much indeed. we are going to check on some of the other stories out there at the moment. betting on its next big hit. sony buying a best-selling book. the chief operating officer will not be a character in the story. it will be fictional. let's find out what else is going on out there. president of a japanese grid maker is resigning after some product were found to be contaminated with pesticides. has lowered its net income forecast as consumers shunned those brands. the view age group is planning something big. income has boosted demand. they became the world's biggest pork supplier last year. top company news, i am john dawson. at wh, one ofing the many companies eyeing hong kong for their public debut. we were looking at this last week as well. etc. and a ban, on some things.

a day after the peso suffered its steepest decline in 12 years. it fell 11% against the dollar.ale reports from buenos aires. >> reporter: it all came to a head on the hottest summer day in ben necessary air res. the peso having the biggest-single day drop in 12 years. >> translator: this was a situation in -- >> and the law will not just be accompanied by executive action, but also with judicial power. those who undertake illegal transactions will face the full force of the laws that govern this activity. >> reporter: the reappearance in public >>> low popularity ratings, and clashes with french catholics over gay marriage. he seemed nervous as he met the pope and didn't get as warm of welcome as overheads of state. >> reporter: an official visit to the vatican but without his first lady. friday's meeting lead to inevitable sar sarcasm from the french press. but there were more serious subjects than his troubled love life to be discussed. a gay marriage law sparked outrage among at licks, a new proposal to legalize suicide was met with disbelief and a new law that would ease ab

the argentine peso getting killed today. cerns about china. >> this is the third day in a row about concerns on china. i have been talking with guys in finance after work in certain social areas. they have been voicing concerns. steve was warning about this a couple of weeks ago watching odd movements in chinese bond sales. he said you have to watch out. this could be a warning sign. >> matt miller, glad you could make it. let's get to our top 10. microsoft jumping nearly 3% after posting record sales for the second quarter. companies flocked to the xbox and tablets helping to beat analyst projections. >> shares falling about six percent. the makers of the robotic surgery device says revenue decreased by 23% from a year earlier. they partly blame the sales drop on uncertainty over obamacare. >> i had one of those used on the. it is cool. apple is down as the iphone maker steals the market share from saint-saens --samsung. samsung has been struggling to keep up with apple's appeal. >> honeywell down despite posting fourth-quar

it's oftentimes confounded, the mexican peso is being used as a hedging tool, but we still like the peso. our equity analysts are still recommending overweight in mexican stocks, and brazil is a little bit in the opposite side. i think that brazil is going to provide a very good entry point sometime later this year. we're not seeing the policy response we would like to and this is because, again, elections happening in october. i think brazil is a country that investors should be watching to enter at the right time in the next two to three quarters. >> bit of a brief discussion but we got to go. we went around the world in five minutes. give us credit there. see you again. thank you very much. >>> still ahead, will yellen be screaming -- sorry. about emerging markets? steve liesman on ben bernanke's final fed meeting this week. >> later on, apple reporting earnings after the bell. we will tell you the three key things to watch, when they report. plus we will go bargain hunting with five stocks under ten bucks. "street signs" is back after this. [ male announcer ] here's a question for yo

the out. ch,. brazilian rio versus argentinian peso. let's get started with the front page. >> the market meltdown. it started in emerging markets. it spread around the globe. we start the week with the dow trying to recover from its worst week in a year and a half. futures are bucking the slide we have seen in emerging markets and european stocks. is this a short-term pickup? hiccup?p -- >> i would point to what we heard out of the president of goldman sachs speaking to bloomberg market makers. we have to get used to more moves like this. >> you see that in the vix. average on the vix is about a 20 , going back two decades. we are getting back to average from the huge complacency. >> the decision comes out on wednesday. it doesn't affect what the fed does -- does it effect what the fed does? my favorite quote out of the weekend came from "the wall street journal." until the tide goes out that we see who has been swimming naked. that is what we're seeing in the emerging markets. we are seeing that economies like turkey. pages, in the fro

another 1.5% move against the dollar for the argentine peso. erg's top headlines. equity volatility in emerging markets jumped the most in two years as turmoil spread across global markets. asian stocks slid the most in seven months in the south korean won bank weakened. the turkish lira weakened to a record against the u.s. dollar. gold also gained. one third of swiss banks offered amnesty by the u.s. have applied for the program. that is according to three lawyers involved. the u.s. government gave the bank until december 31 two seed nonprosecution agreements if they believe they may have invaded u.s. tax laws. edward snowden the says there is doubt thehere is no u.s. engages in industrial espionage. he also dismissed accusations that he worked as a foreign agent and said he worked alone. now. look ahead for you apple will be reporting earnings later today. for more on what we can expect, let's get to john ferro in the newsroom. >> good morning. we are expecting some pretty big headline numbers from this company. they could paste their first p

then, i'm not sure we ever, mandy, talked about the argentinean peso. that's taken a better than 15% haircut. new emerging markets concerns. turkey still out there. a big down day. a lot of nefrsness and not one big single story ruling the roost. a collection of things we need to worry about. we'll be hitting this in the next hour. >> bring it closer to home. a closer look what's happening with the dow. currently at a five-week low. it has been down about 2/3 of the time this year. the s&palities down 1.3%. about 90% of the s&p is now in the red. as for gold, it is rallying to a six-week high. indeed, gold is up about 3% year to date. it's been a bit of a sleeper hit. maybe people are surprised what god has been up to after a dismal 2013. bottom of the screen, the ticker, yielding, yes, below 2.8%. send it down to bob pisani at the nyse. brian alluded to at the top of the show, how much can we lay blame at china's feet? >> oh, i agree with art cashin. 70%. seems right to me. show you what happened. i just watched the markets and then explain what's going

like in the case of the peso. t some of the trends and whether it is the unraveling. >> we're in a new year, the tapering will continue. there's a lot of places around the world that benefited from that liquidity. i think money went to places where it wouldn't normally go. >> we'll see what happens with it. >> we are hear in davos and in davos, you spetend to come acro some strange bed fellows, rockers and bankers sitting down with each other. yesterday, i got to sit down with bono and brian moynihan. bank of america has paid out over $50 billion for settlements to this point. there is an outstanding one from the fhfa. recent recently it was suggested that bank of america may have to pay 5 billion to $8 billion. i asked moynihan if that sounded like a number in the right ballpark. >> we settled a lot of cases. i wouldn't agree that's in the right ballpark. every case is different. today is a day to celebrate about what we're trying to do as a major force and doing good things in the world. a lot of the litigation i

emerging economies, emerging problems, the fall out of the peso in argentina and turkey and india andna are all struggling and let's look at the bank balance in a moment and find out how one of the strongest men feeds his appetite for success. ♪ you're on the news hour here on al jazeera and these are the top stories, the ukraine prime minister has resigned in an attempt to ease ukraine's two month political crisis and the parliament convened a special session to deliberate antiprotest laws talked about two weeks ago. court at the hague says chief of the armed forces will not have to testify in defense of his former boss. their ruling was made during the trial and has concluded at the hague and the election in thailand goes ahead after the prime minister and election commission met in bangkok and the commission said it should be postponed. just more on ukraine at the moment and the parliament convenes a special session to talk about the antiprotest laws. this report is from kiev. >> and even before the banks in the emergency session of the ukraine parliament has begun, the prime minis

looking at the mexican peso weinst the euro for example, think the mexican peso will perform stronglyeremy stretch, thank you very much. ahead, we will dig into the fiat-chrysler deal to see what is going on. stay with us. we are "on the move." ♪ >> i am anna edwards in london. this is "on the move" on bloomberg television. the final rating for european factory output are released across the european union this morning. david tweed is following them from berlin. what do we have so far? we have numbers out of spain, also sweden and ireland. these are important numbers to look at. they are the final numbers but we do get a little more detail about what is going on with regard to manufacturing from the purchasing managers who are surveyed. 5000 are surveyed by market economics. 3000 of them put in manufacturing results. to me just give you ireland. those numbers were fresh and they did show a six-month expansion in manufacturing activity in ireland. the number we got for december, 53.5 versus 52.4 in november. purchasing managers who were interviewed said it has been driven by export dem

the mexican peso, south african rand, fast-growing economies. the question is, why is the street so concerned about an emerging market currency selloff spiraling into this type of financial crisis. here's the difference. emerging markets are much more important to world economy right now and to companies, big multinationals, than they were back in the '90s. the weakest links here that we are talking about, argentina, venezuela, chile, peru, south africa, ukraine, turkey and thailand make up 4% of world gdp and according to deutsche bank, if you put all the emerging markets together, that's 40% of the world economy, almost half, and double what they were back in the '90s. but there is a silver lining that makes this time different. emerging markets are sounder financially than they were back in the '90s, they have more flexible currenciecurrencies, s external balances and more developed debt markets than they did. the other big difference is china. china has been a force of strength in the region. it has trillions in reserves or ammunition to figh

there is the argentinian peso as they spend money to protect the point 00.t it is cold in new york city this morning. 8.00. peso, argentina, two days ago, they -- 174 million to support the peso and they increased the amount to 800 million. emotional target for the market right now. locked in the newspaper this morning. we looked across the web. here is scarlet fu with the front page. >> all over the front pages obviously was the state of the union. i had of the big speech, the president said he would use his executive authority -- ahead of the big speech, the president said he would use his executive authority to raise the minimum wage for federal workers. talking about how he will go it alone without congress. a big theme in his speech. today he will be at a cost go in maryland selling his plans. the other big seem was of course income inequality. here is the president from last night. >> today after four years of economic growth, corporate profits and stock prices have rarely been higher and those at the top have never done better. but average wages have barely budge. has deepened. u

the filipino peso hitting its lowest as well since 2010. joining us is the head of global currencies at usb. thank you for joining us. >> thank you. >> how much further has this got to go? chris watling says it may stabilize, but he thinks we are only at the beginning of a shakeout. >> yes, the figure has happened yet, so emerging markets is more fixed income trade than an equity trade. for the last five years we have seen fixed income come in more than equity money. this hasn't left yet, so while there has been underperformance in em currencies, there's been underperformance in the equities. you haven't seen these rates perform in a big way as of yet. there's been credit worsening, so they have been widening out. so i can see why this stabilizes in the near term. and so far this has been entirely an em trade. we have not seen the dollar leg of the movers yet. in fact, euro has held up throughout the course of the last year. so when the u.s. front end begins to move as it inevitably will over the next two to three years, em will be compromis

the peso slid by 16% against the dollar in the past two days and is feared this could worsen already and daniel reports from buenes aires. >> reporter: it was on the hottest summer day for many years and temperatures of more than 40 degrees celsius and peso on the exchange losing 87 cents or 3% against the dollar, the biggest drop in 12 years and trade on the black market also spreading against the battered peso. >> translator: this was not a situation integrated by the government. what we saw was the result of speculation by those who love dealing in exchange markets. >> reporter: and these are difficult financial times in argentina, the government introducing measures aimed at limiting the massive movements of our currency out of the country and earlier this week it was announced restrictions on intersunset purchases and controlling trading on the black market. >> translator: we will defeat whatever illegal activity with one tool, the law. and the law will not just be accompanied by executive actions but also with judicial power. those who under take illegal transactions will face

the biggest market reaction is in emerging market currencies. pesond south africa was where they thought they would have to raise rates. so far this year. you have to ask yourself with the dollar-peso down. mistake.a bit of a it is just which way around. you have a clear stage of work. today, we spoke to ubs and credit suisse. and you areling off going to see more selling when we begin to differentiate in the week. >> thank you very much. they continue to be bothered by the tapering question. will the central banks follow suit or go in the opposite direction? says they will not reduce stimulus anytime soon. going to be more proactive because of deflation and economic growth. be emerging markets will trying to counter. they will need more help there. it will continue. you have a big hurdle. if you do not start with inflation, there will be another. >> here is what else is on the radar, snowden says there is no doubt that the united states engaged in industrial espionage. they said that companies were found to have useful information and the nsa would

percent today while private markets estimate it's more like twenty five percent and the currency the peso has depreciated on the black market to reflect this inflation yeah so that's where you know it really costs to make matters worse two years ago argentina expropriated a major argentina oil producer from its spanish owner repsol putting a chill on foreign investment with u.s. dollar reserves dwindling argentina has for it has been forced to devalue its own currency not good stuff going on now stocks in emerging markets are down over twenty percent and currencies from mexico to south africa to russia are under heavy selling pressure so there you have it. we're in the midst of what may be the next crisis and the us media is navel gazing completely oblivious to what's going on but yeah let's talk more about minimum wage in the traffic in atlanta. continuing our theme on emerging markets we spoke to economist and author george magnus earlier today about what's going on in the emerging economies right now we also discuss what's happening in the u.s. in the u.k. where housing fueled recoveri

argentina, you talked about the peso a lot. specific problems, political tensions, you see it in the ukraine, you are seeing it in turkey where the lira hit a record low for the last ten days. then they get grouped together when you have this kind of sentiment and fear out there and that's the big concern. >> to what degree are these emerging markets running out of money to the point where they can't fight the outflows? you have a central bank who can't throw some money at the problem to intervene in the markets because they just don't have the reserves. >> that's a huge problem. that's what we're seeing. that's why there's a concern and you see such sharp and sudden plunges in some of these currencies. the problem is it starts to hit their economies. we are much more globally interconnected right now. argentina, i learned this morning, is the top exporter in the world of soybean oil. there are factors we need to pay attention to these economies and when you have currency outflows and currency crises like this, it hurts them and

but this coyote squares the price is only 100 pesos per head. $8. ore the migrants. all of the products are what they buy to take with them. bags, jackets. ski masks, blankets. the desert gets surprisingly cold. everything is in camouflage. >> si. >> here hanging up in every shop is an item you went see at saks or wal-mart, carpet shoes. >> that's what they put on so they don't leave footprints. the border patrol doesn't find them. >> reporter: in high demand, rosaries protection from a higher source. then over here we went into a group of would-be migrants sizing up the carpet shoes. [ speaking foreign language ] >> we plan to cross tomorrow, tomorrow night if they give us a chance. so far, he says he has spent 7,000 pesos, $560 to make it this far. the price tag to cross the border can be real money. ,000 $4,000. a with real risks. >> biggest danger, dehydration, snakes, animals. >> reporter: the final step is the most risky, meeting with the coyote. >> reporter: your part, how much do you charge to get them from altar to the united states? >> tran

the business accused of funneling money for drugs. and mad dash for cash. why many in argentina are trading in their pesos for u.s. llars. >> welcome back to al jazeera america. i'm john siegenthaler in washington, d.c. tonight. and here's a look at the headlines. president obama will address the nation tonight in his fifth state of the union. income and the economy are expected to be at the top of the agenda going into the state of the union address. u.s. and u.k. spy agencies are tapping into personal data in cell phones, according to edward snowden. the aleaked documents show how intelligence operations can take information from game apps. >>> the three hour negotiations session led to some progress for trubd syria. the government will appeal some of the antiprotest laws set in place earlier this month. >>> he is one of the main players in the bitcoin business and today he was placed in handcuffs. the co-founder of a bitcoin exchange company charged with laundering money. christian saloomi reports. >> bitcoins are a new form of currency but the charges filed against one ceo of a coin exchange company are pretty

the dollup of currencies we refer to, we like the mexican peso. >> you said the right thing, bill. >>now i said the right thing. >> ole! >> it's a relatively strong economy. it's got half the debt of the united states. the peso has gone down but has stabilized and basically yields on a cash basis about 5%. so it's not a bad dollup. >> i feel like you have e-mailed everybody in our universe and told them to get -- >> no, no. to be fair, one of the reasons i have become bullish on mexico is because of pimco's work. looking into the economic analysis, it just makes sense. >> thank you very much. >> bill, great to see you. enjoy your weekend. >>> still ahead, retooling america. we are heading to the front lines of the u.s. jobs market with one company that is actually fixing our skills gap. >>> we found again the cheapest gas in america and i know what you're saying, it's in oklahoma. actually, it's not in oklahoma today. we will tell you where it is. [ male announcer ] legalzoom has helped start over 1 million businesses. if you have a business idea, we have a personalized legal solution

it's obvious that the peso is not doing well. 's joined the crowd, so to speak, in terms of going down and depreciating. mexico to me is still the best of the emerging markets. it's got half the debt of the united states. its wages are in some cases in automobile manufacturing and so on are about 15% of what we have in the united states. so mexico's a long term hold. it's just getting caught up in the vortex here of emerging market and delevering types of positions. >> all right, bill. last night i heard something in the state of the union, a lot of things said, but if i were to knock on your door, say mr. gross, sir, i've got a guaranteed decent return with absolutely no risk, you would probably slam the door in my face and say that's impossible. but that's what we heard last night in this new m.y.r.a. retirement plan from the president. it's not political. it's just anybody who said it, republican, democrat. what's your view on that? is it possible to have a decent return with no risk guaranteed? >> well, there is always risk. n

the federal reserve policymakers cut the peso bond buying by $10 billion for a second straight meetingfomc maintained its strategy of gradually withdrawing the stimulus program as janet yellen prepares to succeed ben bernanke. it was the first meaning without a dissenting vote since june of 2011. china manufacturing contracted for the first time in six months in january. a purchasing managers index fell to 49.5 from 50 point five in december adding to concerns about the world's second-biggest economy. the rating just missed the estimate of economists surveyed by bloomberg. bank of england governor mark carney says scotland will probably have to give up some of its sovereignty and mirror integration plans if it votes to leave the u.k. and keep the pound. speaking today or yesterday, he said policymakers need to carefully consider the stability risks associated with monetary union. scotland referendum is set for september 18. the world's biggest distillery, first quarterd profit growth that missed expectations due to a slowdown in emerging markets. joining us now, bloomberg consumer repo

you're seeing record lows for the turkish lir raa, the argentine peso. you start to see spillover to other emerging markets currency. then you start to think of the engines of the global economy and the fast-growing economies there, and if you're not discriminating, you start to worry about growth. >> even for people who aren't necessarily playing in those currencies, supplement companies by default have exposure to a lot of these markets and they're small perhaps relative to the domestic market but an important source of growth and there's a lot of growth companies today that weren't spared from the sell-off. >> there's the multinationals that have exposure to the foreign markets. those are the stocks to watch. in terms of today's movement i'm hearing it's a fundamental and technical story at play. on the fundamental side ongoing worries about the fed, weaker data in the u.s. on the technical side you have the s&p and dow breaking key support levels. the nasdaq close to breaking the 50-day moving average. >> mary ann, how ugly does it look to you? >> rea

argentina downgraded its peso. is the to snap up bargains or is there more worse to come? we have the former prime minister who was known for maintaining value of argentinian peso. he joins us from his home in argentina. domingo, thank you for coming in, i appreciate it. today the peso such a little bit from where it was. people were snapping up some bargains, right? >> yes. the problem is that the there is plenty of uncertainty. what are the rules of the game? the government is doing one thing one day and something completely different the next day. so there is a lot of uncertainty. i don't think that what is going on in argentina is related to what is going on in the rest of the world or in the rest of the emerging markets. this is very peculiar to the argentinian situation. david: you know how investors are. investors in america and europe do tend to group emerging markets together. but if there was, as unique as argentina is, if there was another default in argentina like we had in 2002 for example, that would be like

there is a lot of trade. 14%k something like a devaluation in one day of the argentine peso, the mostve years or something. these are not small pains. these are major issues. have of these countries debt maturing that they have to pay back in dollars. they have limited foreign exchange reserves to pay them back. that is going to create real problems. borrow more to dollars and pay much higher interest rates. these are fragile economies. they cannot really withstand much higher interest rates. that is causing the selloff in their equity markets, and hours in reaction to that. it is also causing selloffs in their currency markets. >> we were speaking with our last just about managed futures. he said that for him, volatility is good. for the average investor, is there a way to do this? >> this is one of the things we talk about all the time, the difference between some managers and other managers. i am not a fan of programmatic managed futures. there are global macro managers who can play trends rapidly and tend to do it through futures. that is the fastest way of getting in and out, sta

the peso of oh argentina got walloped against the dollar. there are concerns the government may default. argentina stocks down 8 to 10%. u.s. stocks saw declines in big multinational names, materials and energy and industrials. sectors like utilities and telecom with little change. the dollar weakened on this, the gold rally. the ten-year yield dropped. it's been a strange year. a lot of divergence. the dow industrials are down but the transports are up over 2%. nasdaq and russell 2000 are up also. it's been a big cap sell-off in 2014, but the rest of the market is holding up fine. back to you. >> all right. many thanks, bob pisani. we appreciate it. things aren't necessarily so bad out there. let's switch gears. even as president obama puts the finishing touches on his income and equality theme state of the union address, a new study out today flat out negates the white house claim that inequality is hurting economic mobility. in fact, the study says the odds of america's youth climbing the economic ladder are the same now as they were 50 y

the argentinian peso led the way lower off 12%. here's how that all affected latin and international markets. >>> could warren buffett's berkshire hathaway be too big to fail? it could be according to the financial stability oversight council. it's headed up by treasure secretary jack lew. this risk council is trying to determine if berkshire could threaten the nation's financial stability should it fail. and if so, the company would be subject to stricter regulatory oversight. >> from the here we go again file, the economy could be in real trouble real soon if we hit the debt ceiling and washington can't borrow more money to pay its bills. treasury secretary jack lew told congress it has to act now and not wait until the last minute to increase the nation's borrowing limit. >> i think they know what they have to do. i think they know it was not a good thing to create the kind of economic anxiety that was created just a few months ago. we're doing pretty well in the u.s. economy right now. we've got some tail winds. we're seeing th

you can see the carnage there where the peso has dropped the most in 12 years. mode this morning to try to loosen some of its strict controls on the currency. in turkey, where the lira is at a record low, the central bank there desperately trying to stop the decline on concerns there about the government. in ukraine, where violence on the streets has led to sharp outflows from the country. you may be thinking these are currencies you don't hear about every day. you certainly don't trade. but here's why they matter. because we've seen this game before. remember, it was the thaibot that plunged that triggered the asian financial crisis in 1997 spreading economic pain around the world economy. the mexican peso in 1994. these are currency crisises that can spiral in financial crises. i'm not saying it will happen and i don't want to overplay it but it's why the sudden and sharp moves trigger bad memories and why lloyd blankfein was talking about the sipsychology. you are seeing the south african rand is at record lows and the ruble is at record low against the euro.

the peso.owhere near breaking through to new yen strength. there is our forex report in a tumultuous morning. next hour onin the bloomberg television and radio, we will speak to adam parker, chief u.s. equity strategist at morgan stanley. ♪ >> microsoft chooses an insider, bill gates may be chased -- replaced as chairman. customer service leads to a shareholder lost. nobody talked about drones of a conference call. underpaiderman, he is . he needs a big super bowl. good morning, this a bluebird surveillance alive from the world headquarters in new york. it it is friday, january 31. i am time -- tom keene. off aten to alarms go our world headquarters building. everything seems to be fined as our security checks it out. they have also check out adam parker. he gives us traffic market perspective. -- had deteriorated in the last hour. here is alex deal. new-home starts is the highest in 26 years. this is half the european central bank target in january. economic activity in the u.s., personal inco

argentina announced it was relaxing currency controlled restrictions, after the peso suffered its biggest fall in a decade. >> one of mexico's well-known poets died. he was 74. he was considered a leading voice of mid 20th century mexican litter atture. >> half a million miners in indonesia lost their jobs, because many mines closed down due to a ban on the export of raw minerals. we have this report from a baux item mine. >> it looks like soil. this is one of indonesia's main export products. bauxite mine. >> it looks like soil. this is one of indonesia's main export products. bauxite. it was all exported to china for its construction industry. not any more. the mine on the island of bornia closed down two weeks ago. more than 1,000 workers were sent home. nearly all the villagers lost their income. the mine brought a salary, electricity, roads and a booming economy. >> translation: we hope the government will reconsider the relyingulation. we are six people, but part of indonesia. >> it is worth $20 million u.s. due to the export ban the revenue will be lost. indonesia's national mining

others didn't, and we had the peso crisis also known as the tequila crisis. i'm not kidding. and by the way, that's not the same as when we ran out of high-quality tequila. that won't happen again. pass the bottle. you should have seen the panic during the tequila crisis, you would thought every speculator had swallowed the worm that they put at the bottom of the bottle and real bad mezcal. before that happened, our stock market got pounded, 470 down to 445. a year later, s&p trading at 627, hmm, scaredy cats freaked out. those with patience and fortitude caught a 40% gain over the next year. fast forward to 1997, the emerging market pied pipers, hong kong, singapore, south korea, taiwan, hey, the four tigers of east asia. thailand, a tiger cub was trying to get in on the action, but it got too overheated. and its currency, the thai bhat got clobbered. the contagion quickly spread to four tigers which were reduced to a bunch of tabbies. guess what, you can't see the decline. going into the asian financial crisis, the s&p 500 stood at 865, a year later emerged at 1,098, 27% ga

you have zeroed in on the argentinian peso. >> it was a great data check there. mike knows from covering these crises that when do things lock in together? begino they pull and and to react as one market mass? in that data check, i saw a little bit. when you see the 10 year yields go lower and higher in price as you see the distortion of the turkish and the argentinian and you see gold go higher, we see that correlation. >> it is related to the fed in tapering. coming out of those emerging markets, it has to go somewhere. it is not going into equities right now. it goes into ron's and money market funds. >> manufacturing is also continuing. >> a lot of things in play at the moment. >> a lot of forces at play. let's move onto to our second front-page story. what about microsoft? it is rising in premarket trading after they posted -- theyhey posted posted record sales. >> did you get one? >> too expensive. the fourthcan on quarter. clout software also did well. is that a record. >> we all thought of microsoft as an operating company. windows did lousy. they sold mo

the peso fell 15% last week. interestingly the turkish lira is rallying, turkey said that they would have a surprise central bank meeting tomorrow, which has people feeling bullish around turkey. action from the treasury market last week, money going back into the safety and asset of u.s. treasuries. yields below 2.8%. >> gold selling off a little bit? >> yes. >> and it has been two years. >> with investigators not too concerned. >> we will see what happens there. >> a lot more coming up, including a story that spoke to your heart -- apple on earnings day. next. market right, emerging- equity volatility rose the most in two years growing with china's economy. but will the contagion continued to spread? our guest this hour, the principal at dallas capital. john, good to see you. welcome to "in the loop." the selloff last week, i could not believe that people were calling for fed action after a minor selloff with three or four years straight up? >> 30% up, three percent down. we have suppressed volatility for four y

. >> you know the peso has been stable. what are the risks?ing about a country that's relying upon the energy sector even more even though restructuring has showed you you have a government that is willing to tackle labor issues, structural political blockades within their own economy. so ultimately mexico is going to be most vulnerable to one major capital flow shifts in emerging but also the united states economy. if you think the united states industrial growth is going to slow down markedly, i think you want to be careful on mexico. if you want a country where you are exposed to a very significant consumer consumption story but also have the industrial growth, i think mexico is a great way to play it. on valuation relative to itself, mexico is trading somewhere around 14, 15 times. not expensive and relative to emerging, i think i'd rather be in countries that are a little bit more expensive. deep value is not working. >> running out of time, tim, i'm just going to mention your third idea is playing emerge market consumption growth via som

deutschee bank listed the peso among its top picks to buy in 2014. the mexico story linked to the u.s. economy. eww is the ishares mexico etf. i've got one more for you. poland. the polish currency getting drawn into the mix as the sell-off has been spreading across the emerging world. poland's economic growth this year is set to accelerate between 3%, 3.5%, that's faster than most of the countries in the region. the czech economy, for instance, the hungarian economy. poland's growth is also tied to a recovering euro zone, something we have seen. an etf tied to polish market plnd, that has been the hot play for investors last year. perhaps time to go back in as you can see, it has been sold off with broader emerging markets. so the punchline is this. if you're not bold enough to jump into the entire group or an entire emerging markets etf, it could be a cheap opportunity to go into those that look fundamentally and relatively stronger and safer, because yes, they are all unique. the one caveat, the one warning i will give you is that right now, invest

the peso is hitting record low. default westeconcerns over in argentina. e big bank stocks. brazilian real is getting hit. capitol flight issues. brazilian stocks are down 3% to 5%. you see a lot of knock on currency effects from the chinese weakness. the sectors here in the united states, what we used to call the risk on, risk off trade, we don't use that phrase anymore. finally, scott, you know what moves up, this kind of situation, bonds move up and gold moves up. >> right. >> gold sitting near a two-month high today. >> bob, most sell-offs over the last a least six to 12 months have been bought. calling for a correction seems to be like the boy who cried wolf at this point. it doesn't materialize nearly to the magnitude that most people expected that it would. is this time different? >> i don't know. the main concern is whether or not we're going to get the growth out of china. there's a lot of -- there's a lot of negative feelings about china these days. there's a lot of feelings they're not going to make the growth targets. there's a lot of concerns a

the argentinian peso is the back story. it is 799. they try to protect their currency.hey spent 174 million dollars and you could see the ugliness over the past six hours. that is an updated check for the day. we are focused on washington. market.ublican type of the republicans will be watching the state of the union. president obama will address the nation in the evening in a speech in which he will highlight an executive order to raise the minimum wage for federal contractors. people talk about other issues like immigration. we have both sides of the aisle here on "street smart." join us for the hour is the democrat austan goolsbee who served under president obama as the chairman of the economic advisers. the youngest to serve in that position. representing the other side, ed conard. he is a former executive at bain capital who worked alongside mitt romney, wrote the book "unintended consequences." the americanr at enterprise institute. great to have both of you with us. the president is going to be addressing the nation at a time when his ratings are the lowest ever

the philippines peso hovering close to the four-year low. and the indonesian rupiah hit a two-week low against the greenback following the sell-off on wall street friday, asian equities also fell sharply starting the week. the nikkei and hang seng closing down more than 2% today. that's putting pressure everywhere else. take a look at what's going on in european trading right now. we have a situation where you have red arrows across the board in europe. the ftse down 1.5%. in italy more than 2%. we'll take a quick look at the u.s. equity futures as well as we take a look now, the good news is we have red arrows with the dow opening five points higher, the s&p 500 up three points higher and the nasdaq up 2.5 points. over to sarah in the meantime. >> among the catalyst most often cited, fears over tightening in u.s. monetary policy and credit conditions in china. let's start in china. eunice is joining us live from beijing with an update. good morning. good evening. >> good morning. it looks like we have averted a potential crisis here in chin

the result are rampant black market. while one dollar buys you 6.6 argentine pesos, you can get double that right on the street. esos, the effect is a corrupt economy and -- argentina is ticking off a fourth box from the venezuelan playbook as well. subsidies, argentina's total bill on subsidies on energy for the first half of 2013 rose by 62% from the previous year. this isn't the only form of government support. according to the war bank, argentina is one of the world's most protectionist countries meaning it imposes the most restrictions on global trade, shielding its favorite sectors. that brings us to our final category, becomes a dictatorship. argentina is a democracy, was the president has displayed worrying symptoms, the ker ch nevers have now ruled argentina for decades, floated rumors of amending the constitution to run for a third term. she's building a cult personality. fashioning herself after yvette that, the populous widow made famous on stage and screen. argentina's attempt to mirror -- tells a larger story, look at this map of -- on the left in green, you have the countries that are facing the p

the money we earn helps improve our lives. ♪ a butterfly costs 200 pesos. prices vary for the others, depending on the type. ♪ here are our family photos. this is my eldest granddaughter. and this is my eldest son. this is my other granddaughter and here's her mother sonia. she has two children with my son. the eldest daughter is being raised here with me. everyone else in the family lives in santo domingo. ♪ i'd like to introduce my husband, bernardino lo santo. he's the father of my seven children. we raised them all here. ♪ i hope you come again. we'll definitely be here. and i hope you enjoyed your time with us here in sabana mula. >> thank you, you're always welcome. >> and now we head further south to a country that takes its role as host very seriously. next year the football world cup comes to brazil followed by the summer olympics just two years later. the government has launched a multi million dollar infrastructure overhaul. recent protests highlight brazilians' resentment that money is being spent on new stadiums instead of improvements to their

the argentinian peso will also plummeted. and thus have not surprisingly and knock on effect for the mock it's going to hold them up on friday's action for that. the crisis in argentina was the last straw the stock markets are back in a crisis mode it started the suite was very disappointing economy the town from china and its ending with a capital flight from emerging countries investors are looking for safe havens putting pressure on du chien and experts can be a nasty and also the week with heavy losses. loney if you win this said the german stock market among the endless the pharmaceutical policy that sees the old us company can make this inbox the company for six billion year was one of the biggest takeovers in the years. karen tells incentive for us and his equipment that at the numbers show a new canal and jenny and the date down almost to the hospice and nine cents to three hundred and ninety two the year is on tues stock stage deals with heavy losses closing at three thousand to twenty items. any off the dow is still