and romney is not competing in the straw poll. so, you know, the two -- romney is the national frontrunner but not competing in the straw poll. so you've got a wide open situation. congressman michelle bachmann was born and raised in iowa. i think she got off to a really good start here. governor pawlenty, the former governor of minnesota, although he's not done well in the polls, he may surprise some people i think he may do better than people expect. also, you got ron paul, who's going to be competitive in this. herman cane. rick santorum. just recently rick perry, although he's not going to be on the ballot. there is an effort to get votes for him that could make an impact so it's a wide open situation. and, again, the straw poll, you know, isn't the iowa caucus. so i would expect -- you know, it's going to be a very open and fluid situation. and obviously the people are due better expectations as huckabee did four years ago. he could give them a real boost for the iowa caucuses and for the subsequent primaries and caucuses in o

again, the straw poll is not the caucus. i expect it will be an open and fluid situation, and obviously, people will do better than expectations. could give them a real boost for the iowa caucuses and the subsequent primaries and caucuses in other states. >> can you give us a sense about the history of the straw poll in? do you think that in recent years, its impact on the race at large has been diminished? >> actually, i think it has grown in its influence. more people participate, and it has been a nice fund-raiser for the republican party in the state of iowa. yet, i think we need to look at it realistically. this is not a scientific survey. it is an early test of organization. it is sometimes not who wins it but who exceeds expectations. last time, a lot of people thought that then senator brownback, who is now the governor of kansas, would do well, actually, what happened is governor huckabee beat him, gave a surprisingly strong second, and ended up defeating romney in the caucasus. i think romney is trying to keep expe

that said, look at the polls. e cnn poll, debt ceiling raised if balanced budget and spending cap favor 66%. constitutional amendment require balanced budget, necessary or non-necessary? necessary, 60%. the point of the polls i think, jonah there is a plan that the house moved forward that the senate will deal with tomorrow. that is still on the table. raises the debt ceiling. >> you can imagine the frustration of the tea party guys that ran on precisely this sort of thing. they lost the p.r. war. conventional wisdom against them. two of third of americans agree with them. harry reid saying this is among the worst piece of legislation in history. does it become before or after fugitive slave act? i mean, the rhetoric that comes out of the senate is astounding on this. >> charles, you don't buy the thing about the deal today? >> no. what happened is congressional democrats got a whiff of possible deal. where you get entitlement cut and tax reform next year that might increase revenue or might not. they panicked. bec

the republicans in power. here to help us break down those poll results are the men who do the poll, bill mcenturf and bill. the basic message this poll is sending to washington today. >> people are fed up with washington fighting. they want something done. that's true, it's always true. but it doesn't mean by the way, they would like the deal that would come out what would happen in washington. you have to distinguish between how fed up they are with washington versus whether or not they would support or oppose the kind of deals that are currently being discussed. >> peter, there seems to be a disconnect between the tea party wing of the republican party and other parts of the american electorate. simply on raising the debt ceiling, plurality says raise it in our poll, but a large majority even after told the explanation of the tea party wing of the republican party, 62% say don't raise it. that was another part of this poll, a big disconnect between tea partiers and the rest of the american electorate. >> absolutely right, chuck. you've been reporting it from the beginning. there are 13% that essentially a

that was one of the few polls actually ever been done specifically on the personal rights generation of black voters polled voters it is eighteen through forty five and one of the things we found is that the younger you go the more the increase in the number of young black voters identifying themselves as registered independents not just identify myself as independent i think of myself as independent but i did actually registering as a dependent voters and that's a summary trending that's been holding voters between the ages of eighteen and thirty or significantly more likely to identify themselves as registered independents than african-american voters who are older than that who are overwhelmingly registered as democrats the poll numbers when we did our research around a quarter of all black voters at that time ages eighteen to twenty four in my research is about three and a half years ago so you can extend that to almost the age of thirty were registered as independents and the the only other research that have really been done among

the poll numbers are temporary. >> they did not vote for default. ne who has a credit card, i can understand the results of that. what happens is, you don't pay your bill if you get deeper in the hole. >> at that point, i don't think any of the politicians have explained it like that. >> right. >> every family has done this at some point in the last two years, and now washington has to deal with it. everybody stay put. governor rick perry suggests that he's being called to a higher ambition. how his appeal among evangelicals could reshape the presidential hopefuls. i love that my daughter's part fish. but when she got asthma, all i could do was worry ! specialists, lots of doctors, lots of advice... and my hands were full. i couldn't sort through it all. with unitedhealthcare, it's different. we have access to great specialists, and our pediatrician gets all the information. everyone works as a team. and i only need to talk to one person about her care. we're more than 78,000 people looking out for 70 million americans. that's health in numbers. unit

the new poll shows the tea party queen, michele bachmann is surging in the gop polls. y had a 3% approval rate, but she's shot up, now has 16% of republicans backing her in the gop race. rory, does her rise show continued unle ease? >> i think that examine now and next november you'll hear a lot from all the candidates a lot on the debt. you'll so i think you'll here a diverse of opinions. that's a good thing, because conservatives are debating the right specific facts, while all we're getting is the status quo from the other side. >> why is michele bachmann surging and the others are not? >> i think if you asked the question for the next two weeks you would have a devil poll number. more taxes, more spending, more regulation on the left, so you're going to have a spirited debate how to fix this economy. >> joe madison, you laughed all the way through that. >> well, the reason i -- michele bachmann is surging, because he is speaking to the tea party. she is say the kinds of things they want to hear. my audience, for example, thinks she's very shallow, and she's going to

another poll of interest, the gallup poll, this is the weekly gallup poll. 43% approval for the presidentwest week since he took office. back with the panel. steve, the politics of this for the president as he gets ready for a primetime address tonight. >> well, the daily gallup tracking poll is even one point worse for the president. it has 42/49. one of the things you're hearing from the white house is that republicans are doing this for political gain. they want to have another vote. they want to have this debate again during the election year, but at the same time you're hearing the white house say that they're winning the politics of this, that actually all republicans want republicans in the grassroots, out in the country, want their members to vote for tax increases, and that rebs are losing this political battle in washington. i think those numbers suggest that whatever the merits of the -- you know, the president's arguments, or whatever the white house thinks the blocks are on the specifics of the debt hike argument, he's not winning the overall argument. the number has come dow

the poll of 800 found 74% support a new consumer agency. 49% of the republicans polled said they agreed that we cannot give our economy back on track without strong financial reforms. the new agency will open an office right here in the bay area. >> california hit harder than any other state during mortgage fraud. and it's going to be important to have a local presence here in california. that is the federal cop on the beat. >> republican confroled house less than an hour ago passed a measure weakening the bureau that replaces executive director with a five-member panel. a watch dog group says banks have spent to get that measure passed. >> we foungd banks gave $11 million to members of congress compared with the people who want these consumer protections to stay strong. >> i'm not an advocate for no regulation. i'm an advocate for smarter, lighter regulation. i think this amendment meets that test. >> and the president says he will veto the measure if it reaches his desk. >> and now, for the first time ever, the federal government wants meat producers to tell you how much liquid they'r

so the poll is probably skewed. none the less, republicans. >> bill: why would they do that? why bother taking a poll with only 25% of republicans in the sample. >> why bother -- well, in a political issue, i never have understood the value of polls of all adults. i just don't think they tell you very much. >> bill: the 25% republicans, of course, you are going to skew it down if you don't -- the rest of the poll is 75% non-republican. >> still, the poll son the right track to the extent that i think the republicans are losing. if the poll were better it would probably shoat republicans maybe 6 or 7 percentage points higher. this isn't going well for republicans just as it didn't go well for republicans when they were in a strikingly similar fight 16 years ago. >> bill: i don't think it's going well for anybody. i think the liberal base in this country has alienated people. president obama at 43%. majority over 50% think he is doing a bad job in this. >> right. >> bill: okay. now, the reason that many people and i think you, too, feel that the republicans are booth it as far a

more if the polls tell you that the number one concern on the minds of the american people is the economy and jobs that tends to be where you focus and you treat these things overseas with marginal interest because it appears that no one really. cares the problem with that of course is it all costs a great deal of money and it has a huge impact on your force and people are trying to make that connection to the broader economic problems finally right so we see now secretary gates mean replace with the former cia leon panetta coming in to the defense department coming to the pentagon why is obama doing this in the middle you know at this point in the history of these wars well i think gates was someone that under normal circumstances would never be in there but again he was someone who was imposed on obama this is a and outsider this is a and because my own well i think the deal because the so-called neo conservatives both on the left and the right remember that the notion that the people that brought you to the party in afghanistan or iraq are all republicans is wrong there are nation buil

in terms of how it's playing, the one big polling piece that we got this week was the president is now generic poll to republican presidential nominee whoever it would be. that's a huge gap for the president and a step in the wrong direction. so this frankly is the ultimate pocks on all your houses issue. the poll is very frustrated with everybody in washington who cannot come to an agreement on this. that's what ultimately is going to drive the end game here. an agreement has to be reached. it's just not american for us not to be able to pay our bills. that's what we expect as families and what we should expect the government to do. my bet is at the end they're going to pass some type of medium-term, 500 billion or so, six-month fix all tied to spending cuts. and barack obama has no choice but to sign that. >> paul, you agree with that, some sort of medium fix? >> i suppose that may be where it's going. i tend to be more pessimistic about this. you never go broke betting that republicans will be irresponsible and reckless. one democratic senator e-mailed me a couple of days ago with a

i think the polls speak to that people genuinelyç like this president. nomy, he is a likeable person. at least people feel that way. talking to democrats they say that's one of the reasons his poll numbers generally aren't lower, that he is about 37 to 48% in polls. people think he is genuinely doing the best he can. even if you look at the way presidential candidates weigh in against him, they use phrases like, he is a good man. they think he is earnest with a good family but he failed the economy. there is a genuine good feeling about this president. a sense that he at least is trying to dot right thing. >> ron, you would admit you're a republican. you admit he is a good man trying to dot right thing, wouldn't you? >> i think sea good man. >> great. i think he is a contribution to the -- >> i don't think he is trying to take the country in the right direction. he is taking us absolutely in the wrong direction. the broader question you should have asked here al is that his numbers are plummeting. his numbers among college-educated people are plummeting.

that will begin once the poll closes for its annual maintenance. roof work at garfield pool is complete. you had authorized a substantial amount of money to replace the deck at one property. the cost and scope of the project put that project into the ada realm. so it is now considered an alteration, rather than a repair. so we are removing this project and moving it back to rec and park planning to further address the ada requirements, the scope of that work, which may also require an accessible path of travel from the concert meadow to the deck. that money will fall to the contingency balance. balboa pool. the planning is complete. that work will start in september of this year when the poll closes for its annual maintenance. mayor llama clubhouse, the roofing is almost complete. a bit of a cost increase out of the contingency for hazmat and asbestos removal. union square. the replacement of the failed light fixtures in the pavement has been planned out. the department has, at the request of commissioner harrison, identified an alternative funding

here's the poll again. it does show only 20% support for spending sus only. add up the number for some kinds of mix and cuts in taxes and you get 69%, not the 80% the president said. he also alluded to the same poll when he said that 65% of republicans support that grand bargain. he reportedly struck with speaker boehner before the speaker backed away from it. in fact the poll doesn't ask specifically about the deal, only about a mix of taxes and spending cuts. i talked about all the budget maneuvering again today with paul begala and ari fleischer. >> both sides trying to get in front of this. at this point does it look like the white house is making a dent in this battle? >> certainly from the polling, and sorry to be so political but i'm a political hack. that's why i'm on. the president, there's a quinnipiac poll that came out today the president has a 14 point advantage. he's shown the most political courage. he has put medicare cuts on the table. 78% of americans oppose cuts in medicare. but he's put t

more weeks and force the nation into default and crash the economy and they'll see big gains in the polls next year when voters blame the depression an economy on the president not only that house majority leader eric cantor will receive a fat dividend check from his investment bet that the dollar's going to lose its value and these guys call themselves patriots. it's time for a daily poll your chance to tell us what you think here's the question is there a legal system being eroded by murdoch styles and sation allies infotainment your choices are yes we should use the old canadian system of only reporting crimes after convictions are no waiting for the next sensationalized infotainment jury trial bring it on log on it's on our back and let us know what you think the poll be open until tomorrow morning. it's a simple message which are sick all the time someone say i'm a wonderful kind it all boils down to one thing. the richest two branches. no where there's nowhere to go once again where. you sit if you rent. the rent is today and all right the movie the big splash at this year's brookly

the race. he's not in this poll maybe some will write in his name. eeds to keep an eye on perry the next machine. >> rick: is perry a game changer? >> definitely, i agree with martin frost. this is good. i think governor perry could change the race. remember n the generic presidential ballot, the president is down eight points to a no name republican. the president has the lead in the latest fox poll that just came out. good to talk to you both. >> great to be here. >> arthel: it was a crime that horrified many americans. the senseless beating of a fan on baseball's opening day. leaving a father of two in a coma. why the arrest of two new suspects have become a huge embarrassment for police? s amou. only one calcium supplement does that in one daily dose. new citracal slow release... continuously releases calcium plus d for the efficient absorption my body needs. citracal. so delicious. i think you'll find it's the vegetables. deliciously rich. flavorful! [ female announcer ] together at last. introducing new stouffer's farmers' harvest with sides of

the president has won this perception battle in the polls. our nbc news, "the wall street journal" poll shows, 58% of people support the president's position that there should be a balanced approach to deficit reduction, and 62% of people say the republicans should agree to a balanced approach, including some tax revenue increases. everything the president has said and continues to say about the debt ceiling and deficit reduction is designed to appeal to independent and swing voters who will always hope that the president can find some sort of middle ground, some reasonable middle ground compromise with republicans. some of what the president has said about deficit reduction, about spending cuts in medicare and social security specifically, has troubled some liberal obama supporters who are hanging on the president's every word. medicare and social security cuts are unpopular throughout the political spectrum. a poll released this month by the pew research center found 50% of republicans, 53% of independents, and 72% of democrats say maintaini

to right wing fanaticism in ohio governor john case it is getting killed in the polls you've got forty percent approval ratings right now look at the last four bills these past senate bill five ends collective bargaining for public workers now you have people saying well he gathered over a million one point three million petitions more than ever before the state of ohio has passed a fracking law that opens up all of ohio's public lands to fracking to making your water flammable seventy percent of the public opposes this particular guns in bars eighty percent of public opposes that and new budget eliminates the estate tax the personal tax that cuts income taxes for the rich it also cuts education health care funding and is going to cost fifty one thousand ohioans their jobs how does this guy plan to keep industry well it turns out his plan is to restrict people from voting new voter i.d. a lot of problems that we're republicans no longer require poll you know you know the story here i mean this is this is part way work on steroids so it's going to happen only because if if if the voter

they are focusing on iowa, the iowa straw poll in ames august 13. the g.o.p.on fox is august 11. here is the latest poll out. quinnipiac has a new poll out that says mitt romney at 25%. michele bachmann at 14%. this is nationwide. sarah palin, rick perry, 10%. you have can see the rest there. the governor of texas said this. he has his day of prayer coming up in houston august 6. he says, "i'm getting more and more come president ofable every day this is what i've been called to do. this is what america needs." talk about running for president. back with the panel. juan? rick perry in? >> it looks that way. now he says he hasn't, he is not ready to announce anything. but i have to believe if he is waiting he is thinking money. do i have the money to do this? you know what? it flies below the radar but rick perry is a tremendous rundraiser. he raised $22 million last quarter for the republican governor association. broke records there. haley barbour from mississippi, terrific politician. rick perry did better. rick perry has a good economy in texas. some people

if you look at the washington polls, "the washington post" has a poll that came out today, 72% of americans support raising taxes on those making over $250,000 a year. we even see where 62% support a combination of cutting spending and increasing taxes. yet -- >> that's where the president is. >> yet the reid plan doesn't even given revenues. some say we're giving too much. >> i think it's a down payment. it is a spending-only plan. however, and it's an important however, he does set up a process where we have the partisan support that would look at spending proposals, contrasting that with what speaker boehner is proposing, that would not allows for spending cuts either initially -- i'm sorry -- for revenue either initially or in six months. when you contrast the two, clearly the majority leader's is a stronger plan, but everybody knows we have to compromise, we have to figure out something that can past both house and the senate and come to the president's desk. that's what he called for last night. he said very clearly to the american people, we have so much at stake here. -- that you pa

and the polls are increasingly showing that the house republican point of view is not popular with the american public. i mean, there's a "washington post" out -- poll out tonight that says that more than three-quarters of americans see the republican leadership as being too resistant. >> however, however, let's listen as we go back to kate bolduan on the hill, the democrats are reading the polls. the democratic leadership going to the floor essentially saying, republicans, why are you wasting our time? >> the public has had it with this theater of the absurd that's going on. they want congress to come together as our president has suggested and do the most important thing that we can, create jobs for the american people. >> so, kate, the democrats clearly see the national poll trends, but i think what gets lost sometimes even in this town, especially across the country, the people are saying if the polls show that, why aren't the house republicans moving. more than 200 have signed a pledge saying they won't raise taxes. many of them ran in campaigns where they said this was the defini

bachmann is surging in the polls as a presidential candidate. in second place 'n against gop primary voters trailing only former massachusetts governor mitt romney. the mainstream media is responding by criticizing her husband questioning her ability to leave because she sometimes suffers from migraine headaches a charge she swiftly refuted. >> i have prescribed medication that i take on occasion whenever symptoms arise and they keep michigan grains under control. i would like to make it abundantly clear my ability to function effectively will not affect my ability to serve as commander-in-chief. >> after yesterday's rally brian ross ambushed the congresswoman trying to ask if her headaches ever affected her work in the house. when he was report to go the mainstream media roughed up by bachmann's body guards a claim which he admit is far over blown. joining me is author of brand new book right there. america individualism and i got my signed copy right here. >> yes, you do. >> margaret hoover. right there. former senator mccain advisors author o

if you look at the rasmussen polling the time obamacare passed march 23rd, 2010, until today today, there hasn't been one week that less than a majority of americans have wanted to see us get rid of that awful government take over of health care. seniors know why. president obama took 500 billion out of medicare in order to put pit in obamacare that's not going to -- to do any good for seniors. we need to fight for them and liberty in health care and people know we won't get that with obamacare. >> sean: you stood alone with maybe two that i can think of in congress saying. wait a minute we found that they prefunded obama care. >> right by 105 billion dollars. >> sean: you wanted the leadership to fight, they didn't agree with you? >> i believe in was a battle we could win. because we've already presold this to the american people. they want us to fight this fight. i believe we can fin it. i think our best chance was on the 2011 budget. i was a tackle decision i believe we could have made. i think -- tactical decision i believe we could have made. >> sean: the ryan's budget it has to be p

it is 63% of the democrats in the poll, and the internals of that poll show that it is mostly democrats believe, who believe that, and as john harwood pointed out all of the pressure on the house side is to vote no. thank you so much, and we will see you tomorrow, chris cillizza, and that is going to do it for this edition of "andrea mitchell reports." tomorrow on the show, we will be live from the capitol with the latest on the debt talks and among the guests democratic chair debbie wassermann schultz, and senator chuck schumer and governor mcdonnell from virginia. and up next is tamron hall. >> in our hour, we will be following the dramatics of the hearings going on in london where rupert murdoch said he is not responsible for the phone hacking scandal that rocked his media empiempire. and more on murdoch's wife, wendy, who jumped to his husband's defense as a protester splattered something in his face. and what role does she play in the empire and in her husband's defense? let me tell you about a very important phone call i made. when i got my medicare card, i realized i needed an aa

bill: why the shift now, with the polling? or of the "national review" and fox news contributor, good morning to you. >> hey, bill. bill: it was done by a democrat, leaning polling agency out of north carolina, and why is mitt romney attractive to independents? >> it is a sign of the president's weakness more than anything else and the economy is an albatros around obama's neck and he'd lose if the election were held today, to any acceptable republican and everyone remarked on all the polls showing a generic republican beating the president soundly and mitt romney looks like a generic republican. bill: is it more on social issues and the this economic front... >> that is reading too much into it. i don't think people particularly focus on mitt romney, at the moment. they will be when he's actually the nominee but i think it is that kind of... it is a referendum on the president at the moment and a sign of his weakness. bill: what about tim pawlenty? he came close to tying president obama. >> again, any... bill: when it came jus

the campaign. normally at a local level. polling day itself, most people here think will be orderly, will be peaceful, and people will turn out in large numbers to cast their ballots. the real question mark is what happens after that. firstly, will one part be able to get enough seats to form an absolute majority and then by right to form the government? or will it be a case of one party wins the most seats but not enough to be an absolute majority and therefore we're going to see a period of horse trading while they try to get other small parties to join them in a coalition? it is in that period when effectively we have a lame duck government period. and while this is horse trading going on, that some people think they could be the potential for some wrongdoing in the background, for pressure to be brought behind closed doors, everybody who is involved in this process in terms of the political parties, in terms of the election commission, in terms of the observers and crucially the military are saying that this should be an express

. >>> she's surging ahead in the polls. now the republican establishment is trying to portray michele bachmann as unfit for the presidency. you won't believe what karl rove has cooked up this time around. >>> and steve ducey's conspiracy theory about president obama's birthday. ♪ [ male announcer ] an everyday moment can turn romantic anytime. and when it does, men with erectile dysfunction can be more confident in their ability to be ready with cialis for daily use. ♪ cialis for daily use is a clinically proven low-dose tablet you take every day so you can be ready anytime the moment's right. ♪ tell your doctor about your medical condition and all medications, and ask if you're healthy enough for sexual activity. don't take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as this may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. [ man ] do not drink alcohol in excess with cialis. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache, or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, seek immediate medical help for an erection la

the polls begin to open on july !sion at theokçó end of night then.lpçó >> okay.ñrq sara, many thanks. >>> according to theÑi cia worl fact book, thailand's economyq grew by 7.8%e1 in 2010 after falling 2.3% during 2009. that was in the midstÑi of the global receqárjjy the country has one ofc+Ñ lowest unemployment rates in the world, 1.q %. and less than 10% of thailand's population lives below the poverty line. that's not to see that the average thai citizen is bay any means well off. the average annual gdp per person in this country stands at just $8,700. putting thailand iuá the bottomr 40% of the world economies. that goes a long way to explaining thej. kind of unrest that sara was talking about and the unreste1 that has beset the country for seven years now. >>> we're used to seeing themjfn the basketball court but the Ñiç so farw3 neither side has declad victory. we'll look at what that means we'll look at what that means for fansxc.5%9 medicare supplement insurance card, too. medicare is one of the great things

the choice is real simple. my entire career has been problem solving, not politics. that poll may not reflect it but the numbers that we have gotten in our first report reflect a little bit different story. secondly, if you look at the latest gallup poll in terms of positive intensity, i lead all candidates in terms of positive intensity. second little, within the last six weeks my name i.d. has gone from 21% to 48%. >> chris: versus bachman, are you different on the issues? >> we are close on the issues. we are different on the fact that i have more direct hands on problem solving experience. that is where we differ. issue wise we are very close and i said that before. the difference is my entire career as a problem solver and business executive at pillsbury, burger king, the problem solving approach is where i have stronger credentials than literally many of the other candidates. >> chris: let me ask you a question and we get to the bottom line. four years ago, sam brownbeck finished third in the ames straw poll and felt after all his campaigning he had to drop out, finishin

. >>> she's surging ahead in the polls. now the republican establishment is trying to portray michele bachmann as unfit for the presidency. you won't believe what karl rove has cooked up this time around. >>> and steve ducey's conspiracy theory about president obama's birthday. [ male announcer ] there's more than one of these abandoned racetracks in america today. automotive performance is gone. and all we have left are fallen leaves and broken dreams. oh. wait a second. that is a dodge durango. looks like american performance is doing just fine. ♪ carry on. ♪ and replace your old mayo [ female announcer ] it's time to raise the bar with the full flavor of kraft mayo with olive oil. ♪ made with half the fat and calories of hellmann's real mayo... ...kraft mayo with olive oil is the new standard in mayo. the possibilities are endless. interesting... save up to 50% this tuesday and wednesday only. hotels.com. be smart. book smart. >>> like nearly 30 million other americans, i experience migraines that are easily controllable

he's down at 6% in the polls. e that he can really pull this off. so, he's got to catch fire. he's got to make stuff happen. and to do that, he's got to get rid of her. >> but dave, he's going down the only path he can. this is it. he's right he's got to finish first or second. in the straw poll four years ago, first place was mitt romney, second place was mike huckabee, third place was sam brownback, and sam brownback didn't finish the campaign. third place, you're fired. >> he was more critical of romney, being clear, saying he would have a hard time against obama, having supported health care. but on the debt business, it's really quite interesting. i mean, willing, it seems like, to go with the most conservative line, which is, you know, default be damned, we're going to keep opposing. >> don't think this presidential campaign that's going on right now didn't have an impact. >> sure. >> on this, because john boehner and the take party flank inside his own caucus, but whatever deal he cut, if he looked like he w

here's the poll again. show only 20% support for spending cuts only, but add up the numbers for some kind of mix of cuts and taxes and you get 69%, not the 80% the president said. a 11 point difference. the president also said that 65% of republicans support that grand bargain he reportedly struck with speaker boehner before the speaker backed away from it. the poll doesn't ask specifically about the deal, only about a mix of tax and spending cuts. i talked with paul begala and ari fleischer. >> paul, both sides are trying to get in front of this. at this point does it look like the white house is making a dent in this battle? from your perspective how do you see it? >> certainly from the polling -- and i'm sorry to be so political but i'm a political hack. that's why i'm on. the president, there's a quinnipiac poll that says the president has a 14 point advantage right now over the republicans on this. i think it's impressive. because he's shown the most political courage. he has put medicare cuts on the ta

so, you can read the polls any way you want. you have to make a reasonable proposal, cuts only, and then the president is the one who is on the defensive. will he really veto a bill like that short, simple, and clean and put us into default? i think not. >> chris: steve, this is really a mess, isn't it? >> it is total chaos. fascinating chaos but total chaos. it has real implications. the prospect of us not paying our bills or prior advertise or reorganize. the august 2nd deadline if we thought it was arbitrary before, you could have rating agencies coming out monday and making judgments that nobody wants them to make. >> chris: all right, gentlemen. we are going to have to leave this there for a special breaking news from washington. breaking into "the o'reilly factor." we will go right back to the o'reilly factor right after this break. >> laura: in the factor follow up segment tent, do the republicans have anyone who can beat president obama in 2012? according to the latest fox news poll mr. obama does not get above 50%. alway