in the cnn poll. more on that in a moment. the breaking news tonight is ron paul appears to have scored a bit of a coup in his effort to win iowa. shortly before dr. paul took the stage there, in des moines tonight, an iowa republican ç state senator who's named kent sorensen was introduced to the ron paul supporting crowd. up until tonight mr. sorensen had been serving as an iowa state co-chair for the michele bachmann campaign. the reason he was being introduced at a ron paul ro rally was to announce he's switching sides. >> tonight's been tough for me. i've been serving as michele bachmann's state chair over the last year. and while michele has fought tremendously for my conservative values, i believe we're at a turning point in this campaign. i believe we have an opportunity to elect a conservative, somebody who holds our values dear. i want to tell you guys i'm going to do everything the next few days to help in iowa and beyond and we're going to take ron paul all the way to the white house in 20

when we take a look at this, the time poll big news. omney at the top. >> according to that poll with 25%, that's the same figure he wound up with in 2008. that was a devastating campaign losing to the candidate. this time around, it has been fracturing of the conservative vote and even though they are surging right now. rick perry and newt gingrich. romney is benefiting from that. we will show you live pictures from what is the music man square in iowa. the music man is the famous musical that was written by a woman from this town and focused on the positive themes. patriotic theme that is the people throughout much of the mid-western parts of the country have been here too. we are looking at the answer to the economy. 500 and over with the crowd this morning in a diner, they have been hoping that they are the concern adding to the problems existing. the opponents are attacking one another and fighting out the other 50% that is available with them sharing the other 50% of the voters. >> a lot happening there. with the front-runner, mitt

thing is -- in the straw poll. >> oh, in the straw poll! romney won the straw poll. >> romney won. caucus in iowa. what. >> it's essentially a three-way tie. i would not scout michele bachmann and she has an organization, she's on a bus tour visiting all 99 counties. she another place you can go if you don't want romney and you're wary or think -- about newt gingrich, so he -- really interesting campaign about a lot of ideas like increasing the health budgets so we can solve alzheimer's. and something so bizarr the box. and romney is a total -- come on! >> for romney the idea is winning and if you can't do that, anyone besides gingrich winning iowa is good for mitt romney, especially if it's ron paul. >> a little history. george w. bush beat ronald reagan in iowa in 1980. >> right. >> we saw that happen then. >> reagan came back and beat him by 20 in new hampshire. >> so the win by george w. bush in 1980 didn't do anything for him as far as the general election was concerned, as far as winning. mike huckaby beat john mccain in iowa in 2008.

mitt romney and ron paul are at the top of the polls. right now, the support for newt gingrich has drop ped. romney built on momentum in west des moines this morning. let's listen. >> i need your help you guys. this is a real battle. it's a battle for america. it's a battle for the future course of america. i don't want politicians running the country anymore. and i will do that with your help on tuesday night. >> barbara carvollo joins us today. thank you and happy new year. >> happy new year to you too. . >> let's talk about the big numbers first. these are big shifts standing for every candidate across the board. have you ever seen such truly seismic shifts where iowans are leaning this close to voting day? >> i know exactly. we have seen nothing but change each time we have done any kind of polling here. and this is a race that's surprisingly unsettled. i think mitt romney actually may be getting exactly what he wished for. he's neck and neck, as you mentioned, with paul. but there's quite a pack right behind him. and santorum has sur

her high point was the straw poll last summer. she continues to fade, that would be an important potential for someone like santorum or perry because she obviously is strongest among the most conservative elements of the party. it would be like what happened in new hampshire in 2008 when rudy guiliani's collapse really freed the way for mccain to do well. if bachmann continues to go down, you increase the odds that someone like santorum or perry can probably go up. >> ron brownstein, thank you so much for stopping by. we also didn't mention jon huntsman but that's because he's not playing here in iowa. you'll hear a lot more about him in new hampshire. cial has been working hard for their clients' futures. never taking a bailout. helping generations achieve dreams. buy homes. put their kids through college. retire how they want to. ameriprise. the strength of america's largest financial planning company. the heart of 10,000 advisors working with you, one-to-one. together, for your future. ♪ you noticed! these clothes are too big,

percent the communist party coming in second so far exit polls at nineteen percent let's check in at communist party headquarters artie's arena go there for us what are people talking about there what's the mood one thousand percent so far. they are pretty happy with that number they were hoping for twenty or higher and by the looks of it they're actually going to get it i have to say the atmosphere here at the at the headquarters is rather relaxed nobody is running around nobody is in a hurry they are happy with the results that they are getting and you have to remember that this has been a party which has surprisingly or not so surprising we've been showing rather consistent positive results so a during the last elections which happened four years ago so people here are is saying they're joking around they're saying that they expect their results to be very good no tension whatsoever they did mention of course i think their primary focus the elections right now are these supposedly. the the the problems with the election at the electoral process it and they are staying the communis

you and i like the polls. we get excited about it. rasmussen poll, the g.o.p. onal poll, the republican voters. newt is at 38%. you have romney at 17%. that is a significant shift. sustainable. >> bob: it is. again about the polls. i understand why greg gets tired of them. there are so many around. we know the closer you get to an election the more they firm up. the real clear politics average poll is always gets better closer to election. rasmussen who i don't, the numbers, but he is close coming to the election. i think you have to take some of it seriously. what it underscores is not newt but back to romney. >> dana: what romney said this morning on "fox and friends" is important. that there have been many candidates who have had great runs for two weeks. they do really well. then there is something that happens and it stumbles, might be something they say in a debate. it's true that newt gingrich had an amazing run up to this point. can he have a flawless campaign between now and iowa? no way. can somebody else, at least start to pick up some of that momentu

the polls have been leading there now. oes come out ahead, how does that change things for him going ahead. >> almost every one of the candidates at one time or another had scrutiny and the personal background and michele bachmann said things that are eyebrowç raising. the revelations. romney's folks saw the opportunity to really open up, but they are running against a depleted field. it sets the bar and if he comes out of iowa and wins which is what he expected to do, the question is who challenges them in florida and south carolina? i'm not sure if this field has the heft to do that. >> more quick question. >> who stands to lose the most and who might be dropping out? >> i think john huntman may be dropping out if he doesn't come in fourth or fifth place, i don't see how he ask continue. the person with the most to lose, mitt romney if he doesn't win new hampshire or iowa, that changes the game. >> peter? >> i think you will see a lost candidates staying for personal reasons and newt gingrich wants to keep his name out b

her high point was the straw poll last summer. nues to fade, that would be an important potential for someone like santorum or perry because she obviously is strongest among the most conservative elements of the party. it would be like what happened in new hampshire in 2008 when rudy guiliani's collapse really freed the way for mccain to do well. if bachmann continues to go down, you increase the odds that someone like santorum or perry can probably go up. >> ron brownstein, thank you so much for stopping by. we also didn't mention jon huntsman but that's because he's not playing here in iowa. you'll hear a lot more about him in new hampshire. cial has been working hard for their clients' futures. never taking a bailout. helping generations achieve dreams. buy homes. put their kids through college. retire how they want to. ameriprise. the strength of america's largest financial planning company. the heart of 10,000 advisors working with you, one-to-one. together, for your future. ♪ you noticed! these clothes are too big, so i'm don

i mean right now, the poll, the cnn/time poll has him in fifth. rd to make a credible case for him to go on to south carolina even if he has the money. if he finishes fourth or third somehow, i could see him deciding south carolina is where he puts in every last dime that he has. his superpacs decide to put in every last dime they have and try to make a stand as the southern regional candidate in south carolina whereas howard said earlier, romney is like notoriously weak. that might work. a fifth place for rick perry in iowa given the amount he's spending here and the fact that this should have been hospitable territory for him given the cultural conservative vote here, a fifth place finish would be pretty devastating to perry. >> thank you both very much for joining us tonight. >> thanks, lawrence. >>> coming up, the actions of police. at the occupy wall street protests that led new york city's police commissioner to reissue the department's order against interfeing with reporters doing their job. that's in tonight's rewrite. and next, is the sant

gives he says gingrich is for real the latest i will poll show him pulling ahead thirty three percent of third of the likely caucus goers say he's their choice for the nomination why and mitt romney the former massachusetts governor and ron paul the congressman from texas i think he has really a very much an opportunity here and a very serious shot at winning the nomination right now gingrich leads the pack by a healthy margin newt gingrich is according to those voters the candidate they trust most on the economy. so here we are again looking at the mainstream media's distaste for any candidate that isn't a member of the establishment somebody they consider fringe who the washington d.c. establishment also considers fridge and so this vicious circle of living in a tiny little bubble but only encapsulates washington d.c. and new york continues and the mainstream media lives in it only and chooses not to recognize that there are other kinds of thought out there this really isn't about agreeing with someone's viewpoint or policies or thinking that ron paul is more extreme than ot

>> look at all the polls. if you look at polls yesterday one insider advantage poll had him tied for first. 1a rg poll has him in second. what this really tells us this race in iowa is very, very fluid. gregg: yeah. but, you know, jackie, at one point your dad did say look, the negative attacks are having some effect and he decries that. he said this week i'm not going to go negative period. those are his words. but then he proceeded to call romney the second most dangerous man in america. then he called ron paul totally outside the mainstream of every decent american. i mean in a way isn't your dad also engaging in negative attacks? >> well i think clearly what we've seen in the polls is some slippage due to all the tens of millions of dollars that have been spent here, much of that against dad in negative attacks. what he is doing he is drawing a clear distinction who he is as conservative who has been there before and done it. he balance the national budget. he cut taxes and cut spending. he reformed welfare

i think the poll is very effective. ts from the romney campaign, shots from the perry campaign. the question is, with all of the fodder there is about newt, having earned $100 million by being a k-street lobbyist, an anathema to the party, with all that fodder, will the 55% flip again? i think it's a possibility. >> now, dana. when you look at romney's plans for next week p. increase tv ads, do more media interviews, skip fund-raisers, campaign aggressively. i mean, it looks like willard is trying to get up and energize and fight back. can it work? >> well, that's all that's left for him to do, reverend. i don't think the white house is scrambling and alarmed and worried. the white house is delighted at the prospect of running against newt gingrich. romney not so much. the most troubling thing in that poll is not that newt is going up, but that romney is stuck at like 20%, maybe 25%. that's where he always has been. he's just never been able to close the deal with the rest of the party. his tactic was to stand back, let

the right time. it was four years ago in in poll at this time in the des moines register poll that mike huckabee took the lead over mitt romney. the timing of this is important. having said that, however, you really do have lift with your campaign to get people out on caucus night. newt gingrich had his campaign in iowa implode over the summer. he is really scrambling to rebuild that to have enough of an organization so that -- a foot of snow on the ground on january 3rd, he can still get his people out to the caucuses. >> do you think we'll see more of him? he's scheduled to go that way friday. >> i believe mitt romney will put out a serious effort in iowa. he has polling now, had direct mail in iowa. he's making his -- his campaign is making phone calls. he's sending out surrogates, including chris christie coming out. i expect he'll be put a serious effort in iowa. he does have a mature campaign organization. so he absolutely can perform better than his poll is showing right now. >> speaking of the polling, the conventional wisdom has been that a lot of herman cain's support will go, in fact, to n

that is no longer true in the polls. voters think gingrich can do those things. >> schieffer: over at the white house it's no secret they really want to run against newt. they are aiming their fire at mitt romney. it was a big week over there too. kind of a turning point. >> no doubt. i think these debates are like presents under the christmas tree for president obama. they want more and more americans to watch these debates where mitt romney managed to make a mistake where he said he would bet $10,000 with rick perry,. the democratic national committee was delighted by that remark. they got it trending worldwide on twitter. what 10-k would buy essentially. then they had newt gingrich delivering their best line of attack on mitt romney when newt gingrich said to mitt romney the only reason you're not a career politician is because you lost to ted kennedy. that has been one of the central focuses of democratic national committee is to paint not only mitt romney as a flip flopper but as a career politician someone who has b

the poll shows the opposite. the question is, what is obama's narrative. and congress. what is he going to say to turn these polls around? >> he's going to go absolutely negative, right? and what -- pat, let me ask thu, what does that do? heville to go scorch earth. what does that do to the brand? >> it means he cannot govern the country. we wrote a piece, saying he should step aside. they will make this campaign something to behold and by the way, i don't think the american people think the economy is good. they really feel, i mean -- >> the poll said they were optimistic about the economy and still, they felt -- >> let me say -- [overlapping dialogue] >> change has not come. >> let me tell you something i. american people are extremely forgiving, number 1. you know, they vote emotional nemany ways. emotions are nothing more than effective body states, characterized by peculiar body changes. >> that sounds sickly dirt. go ahead, pat. >> 69% of the people think this country's in decline, and only 60% believe their children will not live the american dream.

polled just the iraqi survey actually polled everybody but we segmented out and moradi's from the largerblic so i think you are right. if we had polled everyone the satisfaction levels would have been very different but when you talk about emirates period, satisfaction is high. >> maybe it's not surprising that the other part of the question was what is less understandable to me because, is why the saudi's expressing such dissatisfaction so wide is true that i don't think there are many unemployed in the emirates in the country. because there are so few of them to begin with but there is a high-level of unemployment in saudi arabia. >> i did a poll in saudi arabia, a massive poll we actually did from mckinsey and i think that the reports of saudi unemployment are misleading. for example, we will get a 30 something% unemployed but many of them are students and loved, if after you have looked at the demographics and on the whole breakout you find that the person who is unemployed lives in a household of 10 people, four of whom are working and this person who says he is unemployed also repo

spending the same poll shows 71% want cut spending and 59% cut taxes. class warfare strategy. to next change. >> i think this narrative of the class warfare, you know, that the rich are getting richer and poor are getting poorer, it pits americans against each other and it is frankly unamerican. i don't think it's an award for him. >> the problem kathleen it is true the top 10% have really seen their fortunes increase dramatically in the 15 years. >> you have to appeal to people the same gallup report i keep coating 82% of americans care most the prevailing message needs to be hope and opportunity. they don't want the negative. they want the positive. >> i think most americans want to get into that top 10% by the way. >> of course. >> joining us now to handlize in studio kelly an conway political pollster and dick, the chair of the south carolina democratic party. it's going to be bad news for mr. obama if even tom brokaw isn't on board with the class warfare fight, right? >> well, i think, you know, class warfare is a term everybody uses as a practical matter cbs poll just a

there are all sorts of polls that say exactly the opposite. have polls that have me in that same exact position as well. again, what we are doing, we're the hardest working campaign on the ground. no other candidate is going to 99 counties in just over ten days. we're doing that and we're seeing a lot of people go from undecided to the michelle bachmann column. i think a lot of people are going to be shocked on january 3 because when people see me, when they hear me, one thing they know about me is that i'm an authentic, real person. i'm not a politician. i never want to be a politician. they're seeing a person who is very competent, who will do what i say. >> eric: talk to us a little bit about what happens on january 4. you're going to wake up and where do you need to be? first, second, third? where do you need to be to stay in the presidential race, the run? >> we see that we're going to do very well in iowa. i am the only candidate that's won a statewide race so far. that was the iowa straw poll. no other candidate can say that. what we're

>> you saw from the polls, we are sitting there at the bottom. among the six candidates that are campaigning, our feeling there is really three primaries going on. ron paul has his own primary, gingrich and romney are sort of establishment primary and three vying for the conservative mantle to go up against the gingrich-romney duo. i feel good about it. if we can do that we're off to the races here and conservatives around the country just like they are doing in iowa will start rallying around our campaign. >> do you need a top three finish? >> i don't know. my feeling is when you are sitting last, if you can do better than that, that is good. as you look at the polls and just feel it on the ground, we're picking up momentum. we've got over a thousand caucus captains. people going, griff talking about people going to the polling places. there will be around thousand caucus locations. not every one but almost all of them and no other campaign is going to have someone there and speak on our behalf. someone who has met me on the campaign trail, they