let's get to the st. louis fed dot plot. dots at the bottom is the st. louis dot plot.bullard said the rates would stay. are you with jim bullard? jim: i think jim bullard will be right only if the reflation and growth trade of the new administration is not tried. i think what we are seeing is a clear desire and the market seems to be believing them that the new administration will oversee tax reductions, infrastructure spent, and some deregulation. if that is the extent of the policy changes, you do get an acceleration of growth and flat forever does not work. david: recession. if you look at historically what happens, if you look at all the presidents, eight of 12 had a recession in the first year. we are overdue historically for a recession. what about that possibility? jim: that is a possibility, david. we are looking at a classic teams in stimulus in there sian stimuluskeye in there described policy. the advocacy from the administration spokespeople is, sure the unemployment rate is 4.9%, but it is really 11% and there are a lot of people who really want jobs who h

we will hearng up, from the st. louis fed president. nomic policies of president-elect donald trump. this is bloomberg. ♪ scarlet: james fuller says some of the policies president elect trump could help restore order to a lagging u.s. economy. he spoke to matt miller in frankfurt, germany. the rollback of some regulations to the extent you think some of the regulation might've been overdone. republicans are betting they can roll that back. program, doneture properly, could provide some public infrastructure which could improve u.s. productivity and drive. some kind of tax reform that would repatriate profits from overseas. it could increase u.s. investment. there is some potential here. we have a long way to go to see if any of that gets implemented. and on these issues that were maybe more concerning during the campaign which are immigration and trade, to me, those are longer run issues. affects the macro economy. it takes a long time to unfold. if you are going to redo trade arrangements, you're going to negotiate over time with other

we will be speaking with the st. louis fed president james fuller. e you make time for that coming to you five minutes past noon u.k. time. let's bring in the c. oimbings from london and capital group. great to have you know the program. the statement from yellen and the q & a. what were your takeaways? >> she is in a difficult position. yousef: when has she not been? >> the uncertainty trump brings combined with the fact that everybody has now discounted they will have to be pursuing a running away -- higher inflation and growth in an environment where the capacity is still quite low. you could have wage inlayne in nation coming up quite season. puts her in a position where one side -- she is well aware of the fact that there is still a lot of risks and that donald trump's appointment has done nothing but extending the possibility of risk and anticipating the potential for a recession for down the line. at the same time, she knows in the very short-term, you certainly will see shortened stimulus. there is nothing worse than a central bank being behin

does this constitute a regime change for the st. louis fed? a new normalt regime. james: it's way too early to say that, but it has a little potential to go that direction. the things that are driving the low real interest rate regime are low productivity which has been very slow, only half a percent a year for many years and the high liquidity premium, government debt. investors love government debt and they are willing to hold negativets paper at returns. that has been declining for decades. as far as monetary policy is concerned, they are saying we should expect that we are in policy rateetary .egime it's possible we will have a high interest rate regime later and we will have to watch for that. if that happens, we will have to change monetary policy at that time. fox,: joining us now, tim the head of research. we were listening to bullard and he was talking about how a lot of trump's policies are long-term things, renegotiating trade deals, building infrastructure which would not necessarily have an immediate impact on the u.s. economy. yet, if you look at the a

is this constitute the regime change for the st. louis fed? bout expansionary regime and the lower interest rate and lower regime, chemical back to the reagan years? there islard: potential to go in that direction, so he will keep an eye on that. the things that are driving the low interest rate regime are low productivity, growth, which has been slow, only .5 of 1% for many years, and highly liquidity premium on government debt. investors just love government debt and they're willing to hold governments at negative rate of returns. that has been declining for monetaryso as far as policy is concerned, what we are saying is you should accept the fact that we are in this low realtor rate regime for now and make monetary policy appropriate for the regime, which is why we called for not too many rate increases. it is possible he would switch to some kind of higher real later andate regime do a test to watch for that. if that happens, we would have to change monetary policy at that point. vonnie: that was st. louis fed president tim fuller with matt

that's according to james bullard, the st. louis fed president said the possibility of regulatory reforms along with infrastructure spending could boost growth and far outweigh concern over market volatility. he added the fed's plans remain on track following the election results. mike collins is a senior investment officer. good morning. >> good morning. happy friday. >> happy friday to you. it's been a long and eventful week. do you think the fed's plans do remain on track? is it a given we will see a hike in december? >> we're been saying all along that there's a high likelihood there will be a hike in december. the bond market already elevated and i think they should follow the path and continue to hike. it would send a bad signal if they don't move in december. >> the rise in yields, we are just a couple days after the election. you would assume quite a bit might be technical initially as well. do you think that people are now thinking long-term inflation is going to happen? are we thinking we'll see a change in economic strategy a

the market is concerned. i think we're almost there. we're going to get another perspective from within the fed later on. we'll have a conversation with the st. louised president james bullard. matt miller will have that conversation in frankfurt just after noontime. can't wait to see that what he has to say on the subject. yesterday i think sealed the deal when it came to janet yellen. king dollar. that's story. we're seeing it on a tear since donald trump was confirmed on election night. this is an interesting chart. this is 2016 the trajectory of the dollar index. you can see this breakout that we're seeing here. this push higher. the line here is the average. this is 2015. that is how the dollar perform. improving as we went through the year 2014. a back end year for the green back. 2013 the opposite. you can see this outperformance that we're seeing on the dollar index right now. it changes everything. a chief investment officer joins us now. good morning. if you had to tear up some of your models and rethink where you are, the dollar is on a tear. >> yeah, this is really just a normalizeation of interest rates that we have seen the past few y

growth, but that's because they're at the highest level they've ever been on every chart from the st. louis fed>> profit margins are at 60 year fixed. productivity growth is not. >> productivity -- no, productivity growth has slowed. >> exactly. >> but it's at the highest levels that it's been. >> i got to jump to melissa lee who is going to tell us what's coming up on power lunch. hey, mel. >> hey there, scott. we have so much coming up. the dow and s&p, of course, hitting new record highs. what december and 2017 holds for stocks? trump's money team is taking shape. speaking to us first on cnbc tax reform overhaul front and center. we've got one of the architects of dodd frank, of course, dodd frank parts of it could be repealed. we have barney frank coming on to elus what that all means. oil is soaring. energy, the top performing sector this year. how do play these stocks in the back of the opec deal? halftime report will be right back. see you at the top of the hour. >>> president-elect donald trump will meet today with manhattan attorney general in midtown. now, the new york post is reporti

plus, on friday, we will have an interview with the st. louis fed president at 12:05 p.m. time. by now, i want to get back to michael metcalfe. michael, we heard some talk of the possibility that the fed might want to consider more than a 25 basis point move. most people have sort of poo -pooed that talk. obviously, they will have to follow the market more than the market is following the fed now, won't they? poo-poo" wouldnk " certainly be the market reaction. unless you go all the way back to the 1994 cycle, the fed does not surprise when it tightens. now, we are almost 90% priced for december. that gives them plenty of room to do their 25. the interesting thing of course, will be what they do with the dollar. the challenge they have with that is right now, we have no idea how much more fiscal expansion is coming and so, they may not actually change that. the one thing, two things i would say that are important. the first, they do not need to be concerned about inflation getting to 2% anymore. it is almost there. even the for all the -- even before all the trade stuff. i

the greenback is getting a further boost after fed chair janet yellen's comments that a december rate hike is likely. coming up, an exclusive interview with st. louispoised for the biggest two-week loss in a quarter-century. president-elect trump continues his marathon of

does this constitute a regime change for the st. louis fed? about different regimes, like a reagan expansionary regime and a new normal regime. would we go back to the reagan years? james: it is way too early to say that but it's got potential to go in that direction. we will keep an eye on that. the things driving the low interest rate regime are low productivity, growth which is been very slow, only one half of a percent for years, and is high liquidity premium on government debt. investors love government debt all around the world and are willing to hold government at negative real returns. that has been declining for decades. as far as monetary policy is concerned, what we are saying is you should accept the fact we are in this low interest rate regime for now and make monetary policy appropriate for that regime. possible to switch to some kind of higher real interest rate regime later. if that happened, we would have to change voluntary policy. vonnie: jim bullard. euro finance week in germany. david: a supermodel turned philanthropist mi

for implications the monetary policymaker said it was too early to assess the market impact of a trump presidency. >>> st. louis' fed president, james bullard what been speaking in the last hour. he's been saying one interest rate increase possibly in december could be sufficient to bring u.s. monetary policy to a neutral setting. he went on to say the u.s. monetary policy outlook has not changed after the election. and that from the fed's point of view, a rise in inflation expectations is a good thing. >> busy day of fed speeches yesterday with boston fed president also weighing in saying he thinks a december rate hike is plausible barring any significant negative news. in september the historic dove joined the minority of policymakers calling for a rate hike. mr. rosengren said he is sticking with his hawkish predictions until year end. >> i'm looking forward that the economy continues to improve, and that it is appropriate to tighten in december. >> as you have been hearing as well, the dow posting a fresh all-time closing high yesterday. helped by an outsized contribution from goldman sachs, which was up by 14 p

the economy. fed speakers also out in force today including st. louis fed president james bullard. cember rate hike. bullard said the real question about the path of rates -- is about the path of rates next year 2017. bullard is a voting member of the fomc this year which proves joe's point once they raise in december, then bestart asking when is the next time. >> it's good for us. think of how many quarter points we get to sweat until we get back to normalized. maybe start going more than a quarter at a time. but what's normal? >> not soon. here's the things. the fed spent of this year redefining what normal is going to look like in terms of rates. they've been down playing how high rates can go in the short end. now they had that rhetorical walkback for a few months before we start to readjust. >> i thought it was kind of funny, charming, ironic. janet yellen suddenly worrying about inflation. they wanted it so bad. now she's talking about these trump policies potentially being inflationary. him theoretically being able to achieve what they haven't been able to achieve for a decad

. >> one of the things jim bullard told me, st. louis fedresident, is that tax cuts, fiscal stimulus, and reduced regulations will have a faster affect. a shorter to medium effect whereas trade will be a longer-term drag. not felt immediately. where do you think investors should go first to take advantage of short-term gains fiscalx cuts and stimulus? >> we have been overweighting u.s. equities and overweighting high-grade bonds like the 10-year. you can stick with that now. not because necessarily that, again, the policies are going to innge that much but because particular, u.s. earnings look like they are going to be improving. only because the commodity trade is unlikely to fall apart like idid last year. we are starting to see that earnings growth pickup in the united states and that is a factor under our bullish call on the u.s. many of theso companies from the u.s. and on the ftse get earnings from overseas. are we going to see european multinationals post better earnings as the u.s. economy picks up? >> well i think there are some di

the day for us. thanks, mister. i thought my $7,000 was a dead goner. me. what are you d dn' now, price, since you sold your land? business--got my office in st. louis. how about you? fed up with trail dust in your pores? no, always had a hankering to see the big city. besides, hoot's getting' married, asked me to stand up with him. stand up? you mean hold him up, don't you? we'll have ourselves a time. you got yourself a deal, just as soon as i get him to the alter. you think you can keep him awake long enough? not bad, just what they're wearing in st. louis. me, i'll stick to the sunday go and meetin' kind. you know, you haven't changed much, the same old cheyenne. you come to a decision, sir? i'm wearin' 'em. say, your old friend still has a few young ideas. awfully nice of you to help. don't mind it at all, ma'am. try y from this angle. lady can't make up her mind between the red one and the green one. me, i like the red one. looks real elegant. i think i'll take it. this is my friend, cheyenne bodie, and this is price edwards, miss, uh, miss... miss parker. glad to meet you gentlemen. it's a pleasure. well, i guess i'll get my things together for the boat. how muc

will the election of donald trump delay an interest rate hike next month? st. louis fedames bullard said no. he said we are on track the same way we were before the election. i'm not seeing enough volatility to change my production -- change my projection. the fund bring in manager for m and g limited. it's great to have you in the studio. you followed greg's it closely and then came here to follow the u.s. election. everyone is trying to make election toom one the other. what are your observations coming from an outside perspective? there are parallels and there are big differences. the parallels are undoubtedly populism as an election strategy in there, there are a lot of similarities. popular -- populism was used during the brexit debate to create allies that were unnatural. what we see with trump when you look at the distribution of his supporters and what i would say is it's not a coherent set of policies. it's an electoral strategy but not a coherent set of policies. the mood in terms of the actual very different from the post-brexit world. the immediate aftermath

the u.s. energy department. st. louis fed president jim bullard is in london today speaking at a ubs conference. he suggests that one interest rate increase, possibly next month, may be enough to bring u.s. rates to a neutral setting. >>> snapchat confidentially filing for an ipo. the messaging app is expect god public as soon as march. the company could be valued between 20 billion and 25 billion making it the largest u.s. tech ipo since facebook's 2012 debut. >>> couple stocks to watch, agilent posting better than expected earnings in revenue. the lab equipmentmaker is citing post equipment uncertainty. >>> and eu antitrust regulators are expected to give clearance to abbott lab's $25 billion bid for st. jude medical. this coming according to reuters. the european commission is due to make a decision by next wednesday. >>> wall disney upgraded to buy from hold. the price target is $112. the share sitting at about $99. square saying that jack dorsey who is on the board of disney, entered into a stock trading plan to sell sha

today's agenda weekly jobless claims out at 8:30 eastern, followed by the federal monthly budget statement at 2:00 p.m. st. louis fedresident jumps bullard will speak today. you know who we'll talk about with monetary policy today? alan greenspan maybe? >> i'm looking forward, dude. >> you don't think he's -- he hasn't missed a beat. you're faulting him for inflating the bubble? >> i think we got two economists on today. >> david malpes it will be fed chief? >> i don't know. but he's involved with the trump foundation -- >> the freudian slip. a lot of those lately. on the earnings front, we'll hear from macy's around 8:00 a.m., and ceo terry lundgren will join us first on cnbc. >> can i tell you a funny terry lundgren story? i walk into a shoe store last week, a guy is trying on shoes. he's vaguely familiar. he has this hair. oh, that's terry lundgren. hi, how are you? the guy looks at me, it was pierce brosnan. >> wow. >> i confused them. >> you know what? >> you've been in financial journalism too long. these people are your celebrities. >> we've always said that about terry lundgren. >> the most handsome ceo? >>