here is the tlt. u can draw the lines this way as a double bottom or draw it as a textbook bearish. we think this continues on a yield basis. we're around 2-3, 2-4. we think we're going to 215. take a look at the long-term chart. you can draw the lines, fairly well defined. when we got to the top of the channel, we got to the bottom of the channel. and by all accounts, we failed here. we think we go to the mid point. that implies about 2% ten-year yield, or 23 now. >> i think carter makes an excellent point, don't you, when he talks about the relative attractiveness of u.s. treasury yields. the german bund below 1% now. >> given the language we've gotten from the fed and the fact that they're willing to wind down qe in this cautious optimism, if yields are at 2%, something is going to be terribly wrong in the world. and that's to me something's got to give. i could be total lay moron about this. but it just doesn't make a lot of sense that equities continue to make all-time highs. it seems like every w

when the tlt was 117.80, you could look at the september, november 115 put calendar.t am i doing right here? i'm selling the september 115 put at about 80 cents and i'm buying the november 115 put at 210. what i'm trying to do is thread the needle a little bit. i'm giving myself some room. i want the tlt to move back to 115. i want the tlt, that 115 put to expire worthless. then i own november. why am i targeting november? we'll have the wind down of qe and the october fed meeting. i think that will be a good opportunity talking about the potential opportunity. maybe that's when the fed is done buying bonds. >> i definitely like trading long calendar spreads. i think this is a smart way to buy premiums, take advantage of the fact that the near options will decay. the other situation here, this looks like the very low premium but actually treasuries are not that volatile. when you're looking at these, why would i sell those inexpensive options. they're not that inexpensive. >> the bottom line before we move on to oil? >> i don't know how you buy them here. if you're bu

. >> the tlt 20 year bond is up 20%. in the year we live in over the last year, we know there was this bifurcation when we had this temper tantrum. bonds came down and there were times when the bonds went up. at some point something has to give. from where i'm sitting, something has to give. we will foe soon enough. >> for something to give, there has to be some sort of trigger, doesn't there? >> there is some global macroconcern maybe you will continue to get fuel for the fire for all financial assets. what i would point to is the fact there has been a mild uptake, they still are exceptionally low at less 350 basis points. >> carter, what is all this bond action tell you? >> you think rates are going lower, in fact, there is relative value in the u.s. compared to everywhere else in the g8. here's the tlt. can you draw it this way or a textbook bearish to bullish reversal. we think this continues on a yield basis at 23, 24, wily the we are going to 12r50e67b8 look at the long-term chart. you can draw the lines fairly well

the tlt is up 18% this year. that's not a bad return. i'm still in the camp that rates go lower. >> good for guy who has been pushing on the tlt and rates going lower. i would say two to three weeks ago and probably a couple of times since i said tbt. i think rates are going higher. having said that, that's the wrong call. and be clear on tbt and tlt. the three times etfs, trade them. if you think rates are going to go higher next year, if you hold it next year, it's going to have serious capital erosion. i do think it's going higher. >> any of those two and three times, those are trades. >> exactly. >> trading. >> the calculation goes every day. i think the one thing that is very important to point out here, because of the vix, which is a measure, and i'm not saying this is a tradeable thing, it's more of a measuring stick for me. when i see the vix today get underneath 12, giving you an opportunity to own protection at these levels with the s&p, with all the things you pointed out, guy, and for all those reasons, we aren't seeing the no

guy adami is the tlt bull, tim seymour is the bear. you have 40 seconds to make the case. >> i have been a bull, i continue to be a bull. i am convinced rates are going down to 2%. if the economy globally was as strong as the s&p 2,000, why are rates going down instead of higher? if you asked tim seymour, he would be the say, s&p 2,000 in august, where is the 20-yearfield yield? german yields less tan 'than 1% him something is going on. i think inflation has been the enemy all along. rates are headed lower. >> i tell you water going on, yeels are artificially low globally. there are people that play in the fixed income space. that's why yields are where we are. look at where we are in terms of jobless claims. look at where the economy is as i said earlier in the show. we are mid-cycle. the labor market is set up for rates at zero. we have been in the seventh year of the upontary experiment. this is a case where if you see the end of the two-year and three-year highs. the five-year levels, you want to look at. the curve is flattening. d

you're playing it because the tlt, the instrument, is up about 17% this year. that's a huge move. and i think it's got a lot more room to go. how do you play it. yields go lower, tlt goes higher. >> you're a buyer of tlt. >> i will sound like a broken record but i go back to gold. if we have low rates for longer, you're going to have negative real rates. inflation is going to be higher. that's very good for gold. if rates rise in that environment, that's when gold and the dollar tend to correlate. they trade together, and you want to be in gold. under both scenarios you want to be in gold. >> i think the market can tolerate, to your point. on a relative basis, how high rates will go. i think now we're on financial engineering. if rates start to creep a little higher, you will see them back off on the buybacks. the reason why debt is so high is because they borrowed because they wanted to reinvest in their own companies. so i think you have some time here. but i think you go to cash versus spin out and going to bonds. >> i would elaborate a little bit. i'm telling people that have b

return, if you bought bonds the day s&p decided we weren't a good credit risk to 22% total return for the tlt, the long bond proxy, and if you bought stocks, 71% gain for the russell 3000. so when you see those big, bad events everyone's afraid of, almost always it goes the other way contra to everyone's expectations. >> the way i look at it is that, it was a string of misses. let's not forget they forgot to call the whole financial implosion. but here's the thing -- you rely on rating agencies and therapy not investors. so they're more administrators, and so they don't really get the kens of the markets, but also, if you take a look at what was happening in the rest of the world, imploding. >> yes, right. >> so to -- >> they missed every call they could have made to warn investors of the financial crisis, and i think they've lost a lot by the way of representation, but interestingly, take a look at their stocks. think about the ultimate contrarian in terms of rep tangs, goes down. their stock prices, mco, mhp, have gone up, ironically. >> i remember the month well and i think what was most i

we're talking about fractional moves on the tlt, even though the prior day we had a big sell-off, wes yesterday. >> one of the things going on is a lot of people are positioned for this big sell-off, so you didn't have a lot of people that really wanted to buy yesterday for a variety of reasons. i think they bought today particularly after a bit of a disappointment in the wage number. people really wanting to get into position prior to this morning's numbers. >> rich, what do you see on the charts? >> i'm with ira on this one. i think yields move higher over the rest of the year. let's bring up the charts. i'll show you exactly why. with when you look back over the last 12 months, we've been in this very well-defined trading range, with 240 on the low end. earlier this year, we break below the 200-day moving around. it's your ceiling of resistance, so clearly a break back will provide a catalyst for a retest of the high end of that range. if we zoom out and look longer term, i think that's the more compelling chart. late 2013 we break back above that 200-week moving averages for the

the article mentioned rumors that park had an encounter with an individual at the time. tlt was a protest lodged. they say they will seek civil and criminal action against the paper. >>> the last thing we want to do is clamp down on ron madison because he is always with a treasure-trove of the latest business. >>> in china prices for new homes fell in more than 90% from the month earlier. that news is fuelling concerns that a slow down in the real estate market could dampen the chinese economy. officials in the bureau of statistics say new home prices rose in just two of the citiess surveyed. prices declined in 64 cities. that is the most since 2011. the pace of decline expanded to 1.4% in shanghai. home prices in beijing turned down by 1.3%. investors have been discouraged . analysts do expect housing prices to keep falling for the rest of the year. >>> following the release of the data investors sold shares of chinese property developers but weakness was offset. the composite at 2,239 the highest close in more than eight months. here in tokyo market players had a slow star

as you head through the days, tlt plenty more, you can tell from the dark blue, that is looks like itl be wet over the next few days. >> thank you very much. >> now in yemen, the president met members of parliament and his advisors to talk about ways of restoring stability and security in the country, tens of thousands of people have been protesting around the capital. they are protesting against a petrol tox height introduced last month and are backing the houthi rebel's demand that the government resign by friday. who are the houthis, and what do they want? they are tribesman from the northern highlands, belonging to the za heedy sector. fighters lyle to the houthi tribe battled government forces since 2004. now they are demanding 20,000 of their member be included in the yemeni military, asking 10 ministries to be allocated to them and a delay in the disarmament of their weapons. a disarmament deal was broken by the u.n. this year, and asking for handlinga and aljaf, their strongholds to be part of the capital sanaa. let's talk to a journalist based in yemen. peter, it sounds incre

when this is meted we put that in that of the we add the put that is tlt aaway to do. >> dump it in thereis smells good, huh. >> what happened here. >> dump it into the pie dish. >> it will be beautiful. >> it's going to look like that so we can move onto the chocolate. >> do i push that on here kroo yoo i can do i here. >> that pie crust is beautiful. >> well, the chocolate you just add this. the best. it is really fantastic. it's melted chocolate and sugar and milk and lemon butter. you put a baking soeta in. >> now you're making some p. >> you take them out and i flip it. >> can you flip it for me. no, put it down. yeah. you do it. >> it's not coming out. >> i'm just going to eat it. here is one done. >> this is it. >> all the trait recipes on klg and hoda.

but we've seen days like this before in the tlts so i'm not that concerned yet. eld are 1%. in my opinion for a number of different reasons, u.s. yields have a lot more to go on the downside. ask me about a trade, though. look at mcdonald's. that's about as bad comp numbers as we've seen out them for quite some time. at a certain point you have to believe it has to be priced in. i think it has to be priced in. levels we've traded down to before, i think this stock bounces. we talk about on the show all the time, lions gate. content is king. lgf had a big sell-off but it continues to hold this 28.5, 29 level. now we're back north of 32. >> did i hear some inversion chatter out of lions gate as well? >> you may have. you're the inversion girl, not me. >> perhaps something along those lines. >> could be out there. but regardless, this is a name i think right here given what's happened and what you want to own. >> yeah. >>> i find it interesting about mcdonald's because there's your classic whether -- it's seen as a global barometer for consumer spendin spending, weat

look at the tlt. yeah, yields 2.5%. 2 2.4%. it is up 18% this year.re a lot of alternatives. >> you can always sit in cash which dr. j probably is -- >> that's getting more and more painful by the day though. >> what about this point about buying protection? others are arguing -- bob pisani has a nice note on this. today, he says the real increase in volumes that we sell here on the exchange for years was driven by high-frequency trading. that's coming out of the market. maybe the decline we are seeing is just getting back to normal. maybe we shouldn't be thinking about playing the vix quite the way that we used to. >> i think it's just as telling of what's going on in the market as it ever has been. but i think, also, that you've got a situation where banks have been taken out through dodd-frank and other measures. they've been pulled out of this speculative side which is probably a good thing if they're using their balance sheet to leverage up, which they had been doing. so getting that volume off the table when you are talking big institutions mean

the sec inning. here it comes there it goes. tlt fast ball on long gore a makes him pay. the bottom 1 nothing. a's even it up in the third. this is deep to right. about a fat shy from clearing the wall. reddick running hard from first on the play and slide in safely here for 1-1 game. the down to one 06. josh donaldson. the scor score. go extra tied at 2 and little baby opossum. coliseum in oakland of all places. lucky opossum because bomb 10 too down single off closer good. tonight gym over drive home safely. the opossum did it. a's win 3-2 to stay game ahead of the angels and yes, pie time for derek norris and company. jits mets 4 game series in new york. blast left center chris young and la gawr a spoke at the wall neither make the catch. triple for him great in the series did he pis constantly huck elby the fanned at 60 feed. wild pitch. before pens scores tied at 3 a piece. still tied in the nipt. pablo with pitch on the count and right down the the line or blank 0that's the game winner. panda with 3 rbi he win 4-3 take 3 out of 4. dodgers lose to the giants again and a half back tell of

the sec inning. here it comes there it goes. tlt fast ball on long gore a makes him pay. the bottom 1 nothing. a's even it up in the third. this is deep to right. about a fat shy from clearing the wall. reddick running hard from first on the play and slide in safely here for 1-1 game. the down to one 06. josh donaldson. the scor score. go extra tied at 2 and little baby opossum. coliseum in oakland of all places. lucky opossum because bomb 10 too down single off closer good. tonight gym over drive home safely. the opossum did it. a's win 3-2 to stay game ahead of the angels and yes, pie time for derek norris and company. jits mets 4 game series in new york. blast left center chris young and la gawr a spoke at the wall neither make the catch. triple for him great in the series did he pis constantly huck elby the fanned at 60 feed. wild pitch. before pens scores tied at 3 a piece. still tied in the nipt. pablo with pitch on the count and right down the the line or blank 0that's the game winner. panda with 3 rbi he win 4-3 take 3 out of 4. dodgers lose to the giants again and a half back tell of

the sec inning. here it comes there it goes. tlt fast ball on long gore a makes him pay. the bottom 1 nothing.s even it up in the third. this is deep to right. about a fat shy from clearing the wall. reddick running hard from first on the play and slide in safely here for 1-1 game. the down to one 06. josh donaldson. the scor score. go extra tied at 2 and little baby opossum. coliseum in oakland of all places. lucky opossum because bomb 10 too down single off closer good. tonight gym over drive home safely. the opossum did it. a's win 3-2 to stay game ahead of the angels and yes, ime time for derek norris and company. jits mets 4 game series in new york. blast left center chris young and la gawr a spoke at the wall neither . . triple for him great in the series did he pis constantly huck elby the fanned at 60 feed. wild pitch. before pens scores tied at 3 a piece. still tied in the nipt. pablo with pitch on the count and right down the the line or blank 0that's pandathe game winner. panda with 3 rbi he win 4-3 take 3 out of 4. dodgers lose to the giants again and a half back tell of l.a. told

the beak's camp. >> which camp would that be? >> tlt, blackberry camp. >> buy it here. i'm melissa lee. thank you for watchge. see you back here at 5:00 for >>> my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >>> hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to save you money. my job is not just to entertain you but teach and coach you through tough markets. call me or tweet me @jimcramer. today is the day where the market finally figured it out. stocks aren't getting weaker because of earnings which for the most part have been trick. they aren't getting weaker because of the fed or interest rates. they should be going up instead of going down. no, stocks are being clobbered because russia might be ready to invade the ukraine and the west doesn't have a clue about what to do about it. that's why the dow tumbled 140 points. plunged .97%. i kept telling you that people are getti

to me, everybody on the cover side of the boat sets up a nice trade to be short treasuries in. that i have a small put on tlt. >> that expires on friday, just that exact reason. >> the problem with the marketplace, everyone has been on the same side of the boat. i feel they will be the right ones at this point. maybe this is why you can't see banks run. we're looking for interest rates to move a little higher. the banks fajtorred that in. >> are you looking to move out of the market? >> i could be. i think the biggest thing you have to look for in yellin's speech, really, is how long is the fed going to stay low and if they're going to stay low, if they're willing to tolerate a little more inflation than their 2% target. if that is the case, then you get negative interest rates where inflation goes higher than interest rates, positive for gold and real estate and positive for stocks short term. >> i will not trade around it even if i knew exactly what she was going to say. i can't tell you what the outcome of trading would be. >> and that has been different than in years past? >> i don't know. i never know w

the beak's camp. >> which camp would that be? >> tlt, blackberry camp. >> buy it here. i'm melissa lee. u for watchge. see you back here at 5:00 for >>> my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >>> hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to save you money. my job is not just to entertain you but teach and coach you through tough markets. call me or tweet me

i, tlts's too many wishes in the pot when you think of your family, your children, peace in the middle easting climate change. >> rose: right, right. >> nuclear in iran. >> but harmony. harmony. the ability to sit with your fellow man and woman and talk and listen. to accept your mistakes, say you're sorry, enough, not oversay it. but certainly admit it. and then move on. sondheim wrote that song move on for sunday in the park with george and james la pine, if you could know where you're going, you go, just keep moving on. and you know, and look into the classics. and look into the great writers and po eds and lyricists. they've left us where their wishes, not only for themselves but for the world at large. and there is great value to the art of the reflection of the human nature. and we are fools not to drink it. >> rose: thank you. >> thank you. >> rose: for more about this program and early episodes visit us on-line at pbs.org an charlie rose.com. captioning sponsored by rose communications captioned by media access group at wgbh access.wgbh.org bloomberg. >> what if those "health f

i think the rates are going low, a 52-week high basically 116 and change. i think that sucker is going to 2%. >> tlt totally long treasuries. >> look at you. >> i'm michelle caruso-cabrera. catch "fast money" tomorrow. don't move, though, "mad money" with jim cramer begins rights now! >>> my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a work somewhere. and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money". welcome to cramerica. my job is not just to entertain you but to educate and teach. so why did you call? 4 call me at

tlt stude-- students. and he meant to hear their concerns and requests. he is gathering for a report, what makes a goodbye school. trike to improve education. >>> combatting and controlling diabetes the special focus of a forum in delaware county. part of a panel at the ymca against seniors and how to reduce the risk. and joining the congressman in the discussion were medical experts and health care officia officials. >>> rescue efforts in southern china after a powerful earthquake buries hundreds under the rubble. >>> and forcing a california food company to extend the nationwide recall weave have the details. >> and cecily in for adam. >> and the summer heat returning. 84 degrees today, but heat and humidity hon the way. details in the accuweather forecast. >>> and jamie apody withing details in sports when we come >> the search for survivors underway in southern china following stunned's powerful earthquake killing almost 400 people and injuring 1800. rescuers began to dig through shattered homes in the province and 12,000 homes collapsed when the quake struck. rain and thunderstorms in the area come mra indicate -- complicated efforts to find them, and bringing supplies to those

the economic news gets worse. ari brought up a great point with that 30 or ten-year bond. i think that breaks. i'm long tlt and long bond futures. i think that breaks. i think that's why it goes below. >> let's remember we are in an election 84 cycle. we have mid-term elections coming up. you know that old saying, you never short a dull tape. it feels like we are getting into the later days of the summer, it feels like the reverse of that. we will drift lower and spring higher maybe in september or october. >> you are setting up for a balance. >> i am setting up for a bounce. it all hin hims on geopolitical. if russia and ukraine ratch it up, which they probably will, you have to lighten up on stocks. >> vcs reporting moments ago. julia. >> all way if you have plans to grow the company that is focused entirely on content. they announced a new extension of netflix with a 25% increase in the quarterly dividend and doubling of its share repurchases. he says he's pleased with advertising price inviejass and add demand to be high and accelerate coming up this fwaul. he crowed about the intent e benefits in cour

the fine print. almost nobody does. here to tell us what he said -- >> that was such a cute image with that, right? tlt. u try to message somebody. you may think you don't have anything to do with this in life. the fact is if you use facebook and you have it in your phone, you'll see this. it does affect you. >> what does that mean? >> let me tell you what they're up to. facebook is absolutely horrible as disclosing what they do. it's a messenger app where they're requiring you and me to download facebook messenger, a completely separate app on your phone in order for us to get one-on-one communication going. which people do all the time. they'll say this is to enhance the experience for us, that it's easier to send photos and so to share video and take selfies. the fact is, though, it is also requiring you to agree to all sorts of things and the list is frighten. >> like what? >> so it wants to -- as soon as you download it, it will ask you for your contacts and are you okay with me reaching out to your contacts and having access to those. it will ask for the ability to turn on your microphone, the came