it so seems like a large portion of the u.k. public believe that to be the case, but it's going back to your previous question, it is extremely difficult to weigh the costs and benefits of the u.k.'s membership. there is sentiment that there is over regulation and the u.k. is being held back. it's inability to negotiate trade agreements, et cetera, that the u.k. could do as better on a bilateral basis. the problem is that, for example, there was a costs and analysis and the trade would be 55% lower with europe, 55% lower had it not joined the e.u. or predecessor in 1973. so it is very difficult to quantify and analyse what the costs and benefits are, but as you said, there are these small things, these issues that crop up that remind people of what they see as brussels overreach >>> some of this, professor, getting over not being a big important country any more, one of the tough fights over european integration had to do with britain severing some of its traditional agricultural ties with other countries outside of the european

given the u.k. is such a big market, what would be the point of introducing a friction into that relationship? it is not make any sense economically unless you're willing to say we will punish our manufacturers and consumers something as abstract to be members of the european union. this whole involvement in trying to threaten the british public or what is perceived as threats by the british public is not received well. we would ship tears of britain left, they said. we were told it would be unknown consequences if we left. we were told we would be ruthlessly targeted economically. we went from being best friends to protection within several days. if we do not pay a certain amount every year, bad things would happen to us. i am not sure it is a great thing to be in an organization of promises you a punishing beating unless you give them money. same thing from the u.s. perspective trying to tell the british people that they have to do something when it is their own national free will that is being tes

and the u.k. so as british voters go on the 23rd and drop their ballots in the box, we would like them to be about to consider what their cousins across the ocean have to say. we are not planning on telling people how to vote. my question for you is can you give me examples of how it would be in the best interest of the united states of america for the u.k. to leave the eu? thanks very much. heather: i think we will let you have at it. dr. fox: first of all, there is an emotional attachment to the commonwealth in the u.k., but our external relations will have to be based on our national interests. that will be economics and trade. we will want to be able to exploit market as best we can. we want to free ourselves from as much european regulation as possible to give ourselves the maximum freedom to operate in a global market with huge opportunities. if you look at britain's trading performance at the countries where our trade is growing, the countries you see, obviously china and india, as we are lo

the u.k. is left to make it up as it goes along. probably greater for the u.k. from an economic point of view, and quite challenging for europe on the political front. currency look at the market and look at euro-sterling, it does look like the book is priced into the sterling. ewen: we have had a decline over the last six months. with the opinion polls saying the outcome is going to be a of ato remain, the chances surprise would be to the downside. guy: how much of the regulatory impact do we understand? someone told me the other day the eu negotiates for the whole of the eu but on a country by country basis, the deals on global trade are something the eu could walk away with. ewen: i don't agree with that. umbrellae deals are deals. the other thing is, it is not just about the trade deals. it is about the regulatory barriers beyond the border. imagine a situation where capital markets union presses forward in an eu that does not have the u.k. in it. it would have a material effect on financial services. guy: let's talk more about that. what would be the impact

the u.k. ould exit. 10% just do not know. which was done -- and i should point that out as being an important a whole month ago -- it is pretty consistent with the other surveys we have seen of business leaders by other business groups and the united kingdom. it is, you know, more supportive of remaining in the european union than what you see when you look at the general public. perhapss more divided then perhaps george osborne would like to see. you look at the other pole we got just yesterday from the icm, that shows the remain and leave camps in a dead heat, 41%. that is obviously a huge concern to the chancellor. look, he is going to be happy that he is joined by the german finance minister today. they will be speaking together at 2 p.m. it will all be about how britain is better if it remains in the european union. there we other business leaders taking that side of the fight, as well. and that is important because there are going to be some thertant, strong voices in room, and the top ec

looking at how the u.k. phase the eu -- for sees the eu -- francine: you think i have kids, i have family, i need to make sure i can pay my sovereignties. david: exactly. it all comes down to economics. if you think you can do better outside the eu, you can leave. francine: you really think there is a 30% chance, a 40% chance of the u.k. leaving? david: it is such an emotional subject, and nobody knows for sure. all we know is it will be very messy for least two years. over the ten-year, the u.k. will do ok, so that is the rise i'm looking out for, for my family. -- at thenderstand end of the day, i think people will vote to stay. francine: so we have four months of uncertainty, four months of the sacrament is fight within the cabinet. doesn't mean that productivity will fall -- does it mean that productivity will fall? probably see low growth in the second quarter. going into the brexit itself, most senior people will put it on hold. institutions,jor you have to deal with contingents. francine: what is your

and the eu, is if the u.k. votes to remain in the eu.ould go back to the state it was 10 years ago with a very large minority. investors will see that. they will realize that the referendum has not solved everybody because referendums very rarely do. this insecurity you just spoke about will remain. guy: do you think other nations, other politicians in other nations, will look at it and say, the u.k. got close, we can take it to the finishing line. or do you think they will look at it and say, the u.k. voted to stay, we are going to get back in our box. david: i don't think either of those, really. are those who will, if it is a close to feed for the brexit camp, the want to say, that's unfortunate. perhaps, vote, but we are not going to push our country like that. it would be lovely if we can push a little bit more, but we need the u.k. to take the exposure for itself. ave confidence in their ability to get over the line, but there is an acknowledgment fo r the u.k. as a bs for the rest of the country -- as a base for the rest of the co

markus: the u.k. car industry remaining initain the european union. 2/3 of the members in the u.k. re backing continued membership. a brexit could be risky for both trade and business. bmw owns rolls-royce and mini. british businesses remain divided on the issue. more than 200 boxes of smaller companies have written an open bossesin favor of -- 200 of smaller companies have written an open letter in favor of a brexit. the crackdown on tax evasion paid off last year. tax authorities uncovered tax dodging to the tune of more than 21 billion euros. officials say they collected an extra 12 billion euros, almost half of it from big business. delano has more details. it is in this office where auditors from the french finance ministry have been hard at work. -- uncovered a record 21.2 billion euros in tax fraud, 2 billion more than the previous year. >> our job is to recheck what has already been audited. o: 500 auditors were charged with tracking multinationals. say, is no longer right to as we sometimes read, that large multinational tech companies manage to evade taxes. as i have said

manus: coming up, the u.k. committee questions boris johnson. ♪ security forces hunt the perpetrators of the brussels terrorist attack. 31 people dead and more than 230 injured. on easy markets, ages stocks slump following u.s. weakness. boris johnson, talks brexit. etc. the cost savings plan. they will lose an additional amount of jobs. hillary clinton and donald trump both take arizona the democratic and republican primaries, but there are victories for ted cruz, and bernie sanders elsewhere. ♪ manus: you are welcome to "countdown." you'ret is 8:00 if watching in brussels. the development in brussels so very much front and center for us here in europe. with that in mind, european equity markets made up for all of those losses during the session. what does today have in store? at 81% come yesterday that was that a vicious reaction in the travel, we're seeing that. the destruction of valley very quickly, limited in the emerging market stocks. have learnedts from previous episodes that macroeconomic effects tend

let's get another look at the u.k. market. the world's largest tour operator reported a 2% increase in bookings and a 1% increase in average selling prices. as you can see, investors liking that news. the stock higher by about 5.4%. this of course is good news after some of the heightened terror threats we've seen across europe that had previously weighed on tui and other stocks in travel and leisure. let's bring you an update on premier foods now. they are bucking the down trend in europe this morning. this as the kipling cake maker has agreed to take part in talks with u.s. spice maker mccormick following its improved offer to acquire the firm. they raised their bid to 65 pence per share yesterday, up from 60 pence per share. well, that's the view on the big movers today. once again, we've been watching the trends throughout the quarter. no surprise here when you look at the commodities prices that the miners were, in fact, on track now to be the best performing sector this quarter in europe. risk-on sentiment was giving a bo

those numbers from the u.k. are strong today. >> back to your asia point, you are seeing extraordinary growth there. the ceo i noted on squawk earlier was talking about how you have to recall they're doing business primarily with middle class consumers in asia, that there are still people who have money who are coming on board and using prudential. he described it like a risk-off trade. do you think it's a risk-off trade for the longer term? >> i think in longer term, the opportunity in asia is huge. we have to remember it's fundamentally different to the west. there's various reasons for that. of course, the economies in asia are set to grow faster than they have in the west. the penetration of insurance products is simply lower. also, you've got to remember customers over there have -- consumers have a gap. it's a social security net that doesn't exist in asia. prudential with its health and protection products can fill that gap for consumers. although there's been some headwinds with the currency and whatnot,

the contest in the u.k. has gone very negative. is taking that little further but he is pushing the negative campaign buttons. look the consequences and the disaster that will become the u.k. if it decides to leave the eu. he is pushing the migration button pretty hard here it he is pushing the financial conservative button pretty hard. he knows what he is doing. hans: i will think david cameron would necessarily would've done it any differently and is the negative side. this is the other side of the sphere component. guy: i think the brits all listen to the french. it is funny how that relationship works. the rally is still on in asia. we are seeing that quite strongly here it you're going to strengthen boards -- you are going to share the boards in just a moment. let me take you to the bloomberg fair value. london recording lower at the moment. berlin and paris -- a little bit higher. the aggregate, .1 higher. these risk on sentiments that we see dominate the story have maybe come to a hold here in europe. hans: there is discount

the u.k. and what we really need is a much more balanced -- in which people make an effort to qualify and represent the points they make. represent each other's views with some accuracy. >> i'm glad you said that because i think some of my views are being critiqued and i'm grateful to you for the opportunity to speak earlier in this hearing to set straight some of the gross misrepresentations that are being made. for. >> we have a question. >> we heard a little bit the term corporation and many institutions -- with the city of london and i think it's perfectly -- perfectly reasonable. who the bank of england has said the u.k. has failed to negotiate the proper agreement on financial services with europe that it would be detrimental for london. do you disagree with those institutions? >> there are plenty who take an opposing view in i'm prescient is the dash is very moderate about this and most people think mistakes are much lower than they were. the interesting feature, exports in the last 10 y

francine: what of the u.k.? what does the u.k. look like june 24, if the u.k. des to leave the eu? -- do thels clash guild's clash? carsten: financial markets will look different on the 24th of june. goes will look the same this would only be the start of a lot of negotiation between the u.k. and eu. on,rt: the world will move there will be bilateral trade agreements put in place. europe worked well when it was fragmented before the eu pulled editing together. there could be some short-term dislocation. if we get to the point where there is a brexit, they will price into the market before the 24th -- before the 23rd. francine: i wonder if it is the shock or whether it is the polls that let people down. do you even think the london as a financial center can exist? actually as an investor you would not be buying into the they have to-- draw every single contract again. at one point, it seems as though frankfurt would be the financial center of europe, going back to 2000 and 2001. for whatever reason, london attracted all of the investment and became the primary fi

when i look at the u.k., how easy is it to tease apart u.k. s from the global the fact that these assets are domiciled in london. and the index0 are not linked to the u.k. economy. it is very positive and telling. in december, our u.k. equities and our european allocation. theind a lot of value in u.k. equity market which is trading at very low price to book, 1.6. very low compared to average and high in terms of dividend yields. the second thing is that you have a lot of commodities. the differentre entities across the world, the ftse 100 is one of the most exposed to commodities with 19% of the index exposed to oil and gas. reasons, theese coalition between the u.k. economy and the ftse 100 is not so clear. we are more positive on the u.k. stocks. saying, youu were need to be looking for stocks. if i am looking for long sure strategy, i am looking or socks that are sensitive and insensitive to what sterling is doing. favor the exporters and particularly -- is putting pressure on the euro. go for some industry. this is the strategy we put in p

the latest budget for the u.k.. e country -- lowering the this yearorecast for and warning that economic union will the wood even more. -- lower it even more. alix: two hours away from the fed announcement on interest rates. it would be a major surprise if rates go up, but will the fed lay the groundwork or action in the months ahead? mepresident obama nominated rrick garland to serve on the supreme court. we will tell you who he is. well into the trading day in the u.s. going to the markets desk were julie hyman has the latest. julie: we are not seeing much market action. people are waiting to see what that officials are going to say, what janet yellen will say. even if no interest rate change is expected, the commentary could be key in terms of market direction. if you take a look at groups on the move or not moving, the biggest moves we see today is the decline of nearly half a percent in the utilities. even within the groups on the move, you are not seeing much direction. seeing a pretty even split between gains

the u.k. chancellor will tell the bcc that those who want britain to leave have not been able to offer the most -- answer aboutst basic questions how businesses would maintain access to a single market and the jobs and benefits it brings. ryan chilcote is at the conference. where does the business community stand? a nutshell,ow, in the business community is divided. if you look at the survey the british chambers of commerce - aelf did a monthly go - month ago, 60% favor staying within, 10% don't know, 30% against. as the director said all the business groups in britain only represent 25% of businesses here. small businesses make up a huge part of the business community. they are underrepresented. many of them do not think britain should remain within the european union. actuallytimation, it's pretty close to 50-50 within the business community. really torn. one example of that is we're going to have the business secretary speaking in a while. he's going to make the opening remarks well ahead of

the problem we have with the idea of a u.k. it, nobody knows what it looks like and this is one of the big issues. negotiation,rs of politics, and talking, how depressing is that? not as much as reading your research because it is intimidating how outfront you are on the debate. one of the things mario draghi has to look at is capital flows and you wrote a piece on the war for capital. it is becoming parochial, not global. central-bank retrenchment magnifies the process. what is mario draghi's retrenchment going to mean for capital flows in europe, in the u.k., and globally? as far as europe is concerned, this is primarily at a national level. this is the french going along to the french banking system and say, we would rather if you went back here. we have seen banks becoming a lot more localized within the eurozone as a whole, but europe is now less actively engaged internationally. european investors are keeping money closer to home and to the domestic bond market. this is leading to a substantial reduction in global capital

the u.k. chancellor george osborne has set the stage for a number of budget cuts in the face of what he calls great economic uncertainty. speaking on sunday, he said that the government must be proactive and prepare the u.k. economy for future shocks. budget isage in this that the world is a more on certain plays than any time since the financial crisis, and we need to act now so we don't pay later. that is why i need to find additional savings by the end of the decade, because we have it within our means to get back here and that is how we make britain fit for the future. anna: also speaking, the shadow chancellor john mcdonald. he said there needs to be more money invested by the government instead of pursuing austerity. we don't have that sound, unfortunately, but we will bring it to you later. let's bring in the founder of capital economics, who joins us on set to talk about the looming budget. then we will talk about brexit. first, let's deal with the budget. todayid in an article that you

let the u.k. give an american company an order for data on nonamerican citizens. it would not cover american citizens or actions here. >> back to apple, one of the things in the apple case is that apple's compliance with the court order they say could open them up do other foreign governments. and legal actions similar to what you're talking about. how do you think this is going to go over with the tech community that it's already concerned about privacy? >> this is something that the tech community has been supportive of. it helps them with the vulnerability that they currently have. they do business all over the world. and they are subject to laws in the u.k. if there's an examination or investigation into a case occurring in great britain. this would allow them to comply without being out of compliance with u.s. law. security and privacy are tremendously important to the u.s. government. it's one of our highest priorities. every day in every single case involving criminal activity, we go to cour

happeningt what is with the u.k. d that is getting a lot of focus as we get closer to the actual date. my concern there is certainly to fuel thishelps right-wing nationalistic movement, given that we do have that migrant crisis going on in europe, and certainly a situation for the last two years or so. andoes undermine the euro the eurozone project, but i think right now markets have a very short attention span. what is ahead of us is brexit, and i think that still topical and certainly does suggest that we could see some ripple effects into the euro more generally. take onve seen the euro a safety trade with the yen versus the dollar. we did not see that reaction today. >> that's a good point. when you think about that? what is the safe haven currency here? , a scenario euro where you have terrorist attacks and the threat of more? , thereegards to the yen are domestic idiosyncrasies in japan that favor it as a currency that is a safe haven. i would throw the swiss into that scenario as well, but in the coming quarter

tom: but the u.k. is. luke: i think some of the regulations and restrictions that we suffer under the eu would be lifted. would have a resurgence of belief in democracy. i think the eu has in a way damaged the people's faith in politics and political leadership. i think that is, across europe. francine: unlike the u.s.. luke: i think if there were votes, it would be closer than you think. the dutch and the danish and the germans are looking at us, saying how come they get to vote? there are many other challenges of making the eu work. tom: you are a fossil in this business. where do the young kids want to be? i know they want to be in berlin. we have cool people like hans nichols, they want to be in berlin. everybody wants to be in london? london is thriving thanks to bright younger people and older people as well. they are starting businesses. they are generating investment. growth and job creation are at the top of the tree in terms of the eu. we have pretty good demographics compared to other members of

we are going to discuss the u.k.'european decision -- the brexit next. >> what would germany do if the u.k. voted to leave the e.u.? would cry. [laughter] [applause] guy: would jim rogers actually cry about this? that is the question we need to debate. we will do that in a moment. ♪ there will be consequences if the united kingdom leaves the european union. there will be constitutions a and lots ofequences fields. on the common market, in the financial centers, for the economic development between our countries. i am not suggesting it is all going to collapse. i do not want to be catastrophic that there will be consequences. guy: "there will be consequences." the french president speaking yesterday with a bilateral meeting with david cameron. let's gets to consequences and ideas about brexit. good, bad. jim rogers still with us. if you had to vote, would you leave or stay? jim: for great britain, i would vote to stay definitely. to trade with europe without being in the common market is not going to be good or helpful

in the u.k., 20%. he u.s., upwards of 40%. 12.5% int pay the ireland because of the double structure. they pay less than that. of irish legislature got rid it in 2014, but if you are already using the structure, true for facebook, google, and the others, they have until 2020 to change. even if there is an international tax structure change and ireland loses 12.5% tax rates, companies can move on to walter, the cayman islands, right? malta, the cayman islands, right? jeremy: that is a frustration that the u.k. has voiced, that these corporations can move quite a bit. they have a lot of flexibility to do that under the law and pay less tax. you are seeing the public pressure for them to pay more in certain jurisdictions like the u.k.. it has resulted in these companies choosing, almost voluntarily, to change their arrangements. like facebook did today, saying areall have more in this of the u.k. and pay more tax. they have the ability to not do that if they didn't want to. mark: still ahead on bloomberg c

the u.k.. patrik: i think excluding the u.k. bid is quite crucial. the european and dax at the moment, it is very hard to determine an opinion because the conflict between the u.k. and continental europe are so different. the u.k. is heavy in everything and i'm pretty sure we are looking for earnings to fall again this year, whereas the closer you get to the core eurozone, earnings are not looking too bad. we suspect there is some upside risk to what analysts have at the moment. it is not a fantastic absolute outlook but for what it is worth, analysts look pessimistic. ,f you look on a global level earnings expectations are the lowest they have been in decades. mark: the ftse is one of the better performing european bosses. yes, it is down but it is pretty much flat on the year. the rebound has been led by those mining and energy stocks. does that tell us that you do not think this rebound in those sectors has legs? patrik: to be honest, we are fairly lukewarm on the outlook for commodity cris

brexit is a real concern for the u.k. d it has the potential and uncertainty it causes that is challenging. it puts a big clown -- big cloud over the bank of england forecasts. maker tod as a policy forecast a year or two in advance when you have such an uncertain brexit referendum in june looming. i think will be difficult for the bank of england to come down on one side or another. alix: and the market, alexander, is really reflecting that. take a look at the work function in bloomberg for the u.k. it is truly an believable what we have seen. a 6% chance of a rate hate -- rate hike at the end of 2016. it is so dovish, the market, very pessimistic. do you think the pessimism is justified? alexander: i think that's what it -- that sort of pessimism could disappear if the u.k. electorate votes tuesday. my now the market has pushed out the opportunity or potential for our u.k. bank of england rate hike until the middle of next year. if you vote to stake him a lot of the political clout lifts, and that could give the green li

if it word happen, it would be highly negative not just for the u.k. omy but also for europe and even globally it would have implications. the focus is very much on what would happen in this country come it is bigger than that. get the impression that investors are contingency planning? peter: investors have always got to look at the high impact lower probability events although the probability of brexit is slightly higher than one would like to see. you have to build these things into your outlook. next, as presidential hopefuls get ready for super tuesday, we speak to a u.s. policy expert. on the democrats chances. ♪ anna: welcome back. let us get the bloomberg business flash. nejra: apple has won a crucial victory in its privacy battle with the u.s. government. a new york court rules it does not have to unlock a drug dealer's iphone. today, apple is on capitol hill to testify he for the house judiciary committee. the land-based intercontinental isintercontinentalexchange exploring a counter offer from the london stock exchange. it would create the do

your seen that in the u.k. index and guilds. much rather see a natural market, and the market determine the correct price. we like them to spread. we are a buyer of corporate bonds as recently as last week. anna: thank you very much for joining us. "countdown."r manus: an exclusive conversation coming up. futures are rallying. ♪ manus: -- guy: welcome to on the move. we're counting you down to the european open. i am guys jon tester i'm guy johnson. on cycle is on assignment. the greenback rally is cut down. what does the dollar demise mean for global markets. we are going to talk about that. why eu leaders are ducking draghi in brussels? brazil's market surges as the government pushes close -- as the government is pushed closer to the edge. so we are just under a half hour until the european market open. i want to show you what is happening with the market. let me take you to the bloomberg and show you the air value calculation. we thought this rally was going to run out of steam in europe. it probably is. it is not great that

outlook for the u.k. economy more difficult. as he unveiled his yearly budget, george osborne said the growth in britain will be weaker than previously expected as a result. reporter: george osborne has now presented six annual budgets to the house of commons. every year, the keyword has been "austerity." the economy is strong, but the storm clouds are gathering again. our response to this new challenge is tap now so we don't pay later. this is our conservative budget. so that the next generation does not have to pay our debt. reporter: osborne pointed to external factors, a week global economy -- weak global economy. he announced revised figures for low -- for british growth. it is set to stagnate at 2.1% for the three years after that. reason for the conservative government to keep cutting spending to the tune of 3.5 billion pounds by 2020. this caused anger in the opposition's ranks. the chancellor just delivered is the culmination of six years of his failures. >> order! reporter: the upcoming brexit re

they want to reach the u.k. to claim asylum. paul brenan is live for us. we understand that the people who are leaving the jungle, so-called, are moving to other areas. where is there for them to go? >> reporter: the combination of options that face the refugees who are being cleared from the southern edge of the jungle camp here in calais, they are being offered better the authorities would say accommodation in a northern area of the same camp here, with containers which are effectively dormitory-style accommodation. i have to say that many of those say those containers do not offer the privacy and security that they would like. the other option being offered to the refugees is to claim asylum in france rather than continuing to hold out hope of reaching britain to claim asylum in the u.k. some are agreeing to be bussed to other centers, in excess of 100 centers scattered around france shall, where they will be required to apply for asylum in france. the mood is fairly bleak. there was some resistance to the dismantling and demolishing of the huts and shel

there will be berlin if the u.k. votes out of the eu. talk brexit next. ♪ guy: welcome back. we are 41 minutes into the equity session. the chinese markets have closed. there is an interesting line flipping around this morning. china is said to be intervening with stocks. interesting, yes. i look at what is happened with the chinese markets and it has rallied a little bit. i would say that is probably before some of this would have been taking place. march 4 today and markets started rallying on march 1. it is not an uncommon theory that the chinese intervened in the stock market. here is your bloomberg business flash. nejra: goldman sachs and bank of america are planning job cuts to reign in costs. goldman will illuminate 5% of traders and -- will eliminate 5% of traders. meanwhile, bank of america will dismiss 150 trading and investment bank employees next week. largeste, the world's luggage maker, has agreed to buy the company. it is the biggest acquisition for this company. the london stock exchange group has had four year total reve

what we have said is that we think the u.k. the -- we think the eu was better with the u.k. anna: ok. and we sit here today -- i know you are in london and i'm in london -- the ecb meets today. mark any message for mario draghi -- do you want to see an end to the negative interest rate policy? >> well, it is going to be interesting to see if mario draghi does whatever it takes. less time he disappointed, and we are probably expecting a ten basis point reduction and another 10 billion in qe. as a company, it doesn't affect us too much. we are not that volatile sensitive because our back book is extraordinarily well-managed, and our new business sales don't have high guarantees. anna: thank you so much. thank you. mark wilton, the ceo of aviva. ♪ hey how's it going, hotcakes? hotcakes. this place has hotcakes. so why aren't they selling like hotcakes? with comcast business internet and wifi pro, they could be. just add a customized message to your wifi pro splash page and you'll reach your customers where their eyes are already -

the u.s., u.k., there is a status quo of extremely accommodative monetary policy. move decisively in one -- ction francine: because it is an experiment? i am not trying to blame center bankers. they are experimenting -- blame essential bankers, but they are -- blame central bankers, but they are experimenting. simon: the kind of metrics you could's consistently work with and forecasting models. this is the case for investors, central bankers and this is why there remains a sentiment on global risk markets, because they cannot understand is a different this time? it looks different when you look at nominal measures. francine: simon french. up next, the starwood bid battle. we will bring you the details next. ♪ francine: let's get to bloomberg's first word news with nejra cehic. nejra: a hijacker who claims he was wearing explosive belts flight to- and egypt land in cyprus. the passengers and crew have been released. -- the u.s. has dropped its privacy case against apple after successfully hacking into the iphone used by one of the san bernardino terrorists. the justi

you look at the u.k. k market and you think, if there were to be a boat to leave the eu, that could be quite damaging, and that you think about -- well actually, a lot of about 70% come from other companies, so would it be that damaging? it is a fine line we are trying to tread. vonnie: there is a difference here between small business, media business and then big, large business conglomerates. small businesses may not be as enthusiastic as some of the larger businesses. >> i'm not sure i caught that question. the more domestic country -- companies, the ones that trade with europe. >> if you look at what smaller businesses are saying, it is by no means unanimous. some think it will be damaging, there are others who think it will be fairly neutral. i don't think you can make a statement and say it is going to be positive or negative. for each i think company, you need to think about it on a case-by-case basis. i might look to this in some detail, almost every argument that you hear for staying in or for lea

breaking news out of the u.k. figure we were expecting for the fourth quarter is a little bit better than expected. in terms of the figure year on year. let me get it up for you, because i lost it on the bloomberg terminal; it's better than expected. you can see an increase of 0.6% for the fourth quarter. %.en we were expecting 1.5 the other important one is the current account balance; that's -32.7 billion. is better than expected but watch out for the current account balance. this is a picture of the currency you can see. let's get straight to the first word news. nejra: thanks. planning to cut 400 jobs in what may it a guest round of layoffs to date at the world's largest money manager, according to people with with knowledge of the matter. it's equal to about 3% of its employees. despite the cuts, blackrock will continue to invest and hire in key areas and expects to end the year with a higher headcount. german joblessness is unchanged in march, snapping a run of 5% decline. the number of people out of work hel

a similar story for the u.k. gilt market. und has made big inroads to the biggest losses since 2009 against the dollar. a big performing industry group in europe is basic resources. rebound that we have seen in the european stock market since the 2.5 year low on february 11. basic resources has risen by 16.6%. by the i am stunned 10-year basis point move in the last five days, looking at 24 basis points. the 2-year is still 54 basis points. that is widening. in the u.s., 1.89%. a little bit of treasury selling today. more on the jobs report and what it means for the u.s. economy. we talked to bill gross. tom keene asks him if the jobs being created are good. : i suspect some of them are not great. some of them aren't minimum wage or higher. of americanincome workers is proceeding higher, but not at a rapid pace. the hours worked in this report did not increase. the participation rate went up. i think a company would be heartened by that, by the extent that it goes up it means more people are coming into the workforce, taking p

view, the economic prospects for the u.k. are far better outside the european union than within. , norway andutside switzerland are two of the wealthiest economies in the world. the u.k. would do even better. manus: -- anna: let's get back to steve from standard bank. i guess thoughts turn to levels around this brexit conversation. how week with the pound get if we saw some kind of brexit? >> some of those things are not equal him a as you might expect and it depends on the length of time after brexit mode. i'm not sure that is quite so relevant. the polls are closed in the polls are often wrong anyway. i suspect that if we leave were toapidly, if we stay, we would probably increase by about 5% or so. it is interesting because if you take those figures and say, ok. what probability of brexit makes the pound seem neutral? that level would be 80%. if there were an 80% chance of , then you would be neutral on sterling. so a 20% chance of us leaving and getting a 20% move equates to the same thing. what i'm saying is that to be ne

that's a personal preference, i would very much prefer to see the u.k. stay in the european union, but i also believe that our economic findings will strongly support that view that it would hurt both the u.k. and the eu if the u.k. was to go. katty: we will have more of my interview later in the program. including why she is pushing for more women in the workforce in europe. an estimated quarter million people have been killed and driven from their homes. ofhas led to the persecution minorities. this week one young woman will address it is lawmakers about her ordeal. ourshe has been speaking to reporter. >> marooned on a mountain, hasrs of the minority who fled the murderous advances of the i.s.. this is the story of one girl, 15 at the time, who was not able to escape. we are not identifying her because she has family members still held captive. >> they came with their fighters eachhey beat us and they chose one of us. i was there with my sister and cousin. i was selected by a 25-year-old iraqi man. >> what was he like, this man? >> he was like a monste

just remind us what the u.k. lls are telling us about where people stand on the issue. >> if you look at the polls they are pretty much still all over the place at the moment. there is one batch of polls that has a narrow lead for the leeds camp but other batches show there is actually a very strong lead for the camp that says that the u.k. should stay in. when we're looking at this poll, this also applies i guess in the u.s. as well. there is a big difference between internet polling and phone polling. the phone polls tend to track less commitmented voters. they tend to show a lead that the u.k. should stay in the european union. the internet polling which tends to capture more committed voters, people more committed to their respective causes, that tends to show a lead for the leave camp. francine: looking at the polls and what people are worried about, it should probably be what the u.k. economically would look like outside of the e.u. it looks like a lot of the talk is on snchity. >> the london chattering clas

the u.k. more favorable demographics than a lot of the european countries and is likely to be the largest european economy in the years ahead. wheren see a scenario sterling goes up with the euro on a brexit. sterling-dollar at 1.30. we are going to bring you full coverage of mark carney's testimony later today. asian stocks have dropped the most in about three weeks since data showed japan's economy and chinese exports are shrinking. on whatet more details has been happening in the overnight session. nejra: i had the chart here of the asia-pacific index. they are heading for the biggest drop in three weeks. this is coming after china's exports slump deepening. the exports dropping more than 25%. so much focus on china with the national people's congress on going. i want to show you brent crude. yesterday, this rallied above $40 a barrel. it has halted, the rally there, -- 40.35.l above 40 yesterday, brent rose on the speculation that we might see producers agreed to an output freeze but we hav

there is a lot to talk about in the u.k. ound the brexit theme but first let's talk about the vibrant economy project. and the amount of value you think could be added to the economy if we were to increase productivity to g7 levels. >> they've quantified what we all thought which is that if we increased it that would be an extra 479 billion in the u.k. economy. anna: how do we tap into that higher productivity? >> what's really interesting is when we looked at the vibrant economy there are three key themes. up.vation is taken we are crating environments were businesses and people can thrive. axis to skills and infrastructure. in our research we came to very critical areas in terms of exporting and the aspiration british business and how we can create that positivity and environment. anna: how much aspiration do you sense is out there? you talk to a lot more medium-sized businesses and found some evidence that perhaps they are not ambitious enough. how much they need to be thinking that the rest of the world or the marketplace

sales will actually result in taxable profits in the u.k., and we need to bare in mind that the u.k. also has some deferred tax assets which means it can use these assets to reduce its future tax responsibilities. so it's very difficult to understand how much of the overall supply chain profits will be taxed in the u.k. >> just to be clear about this, we know -- we keep hearing that there is going to be a significant increase in the amount of tax that facebook pays, but you are saying even though sales won't be routed through ireland, there are still structures and methods in place that can help them keep their tax down. >> yeah, if you consider ireland, all of the sales routed to ireland in the past, were then further transferred to tax savings, which ended up not being taxed at all, so in this case -- the amounts won't be significant, because we're talking millions. it is likely that facebook will pay millions of tax in -- in the u.k. over the next few years, but you need to bare in mind, that the number is in the billions rather than the millions. >> all right. thank you very much

is amongidn't get in 250 business leaders backing the push for the u.k. lead the european -- leave the european union. contrast with in the bank's current management which warned it will send 1000 cap to paris from london if voters decide to leave the eu in the june referenda. that is your bloomberg business flash. manus: commodities are in focus today including oil and copper and they are at risk of some steep decline. as recent advances are not grounded in improved fundamentals. that is if you are according to barclays which has warned that prices may tumble. the bank says copper may tumble to a $4000 market a metric ton while oil could fall back to as low as $30 a barrel. in our guest.ack the head of global fx strategy. barclays called this morning. part of the huge momentous rally we are seeing in oil -- it has been quite considerable. it is tied up with what is going on in the dollar and that shift lower in the dollar but the short covering rally, one of the most aggressive drops it in shorts. 60% over seven weeks. the rally onaying limited fundament

also coming up, the end of an era and thousands of jobs at risk in the u.k. as a steel giant starts wrapping up its operations there. we will look at what's left for the industry during our business update. and sleeping with sharks for real -- the holiday that offers you a chance to go underwater sleeping at the aquarium. first our top story live from paris -- the french president, francois hollande says he is dropping plans to change the french constitution. the most controversial among those measures would have stripped convicted terrorists of their french nationality. the plans were put in motion after the terror attacks in paris last november that left 130 people dead. here is the president speaking earlier today. my state today for months on at the national assembly and the senate have not been able to agree on a text. given the everything circumstances we are living through which are so serious to avoid division. i have decided, following meetings with the leaders of the national assembly and the senate, to end the constitutional debate. today, our frenc

like the rest of europe. , the u.k. s from overcapacity, and cheaper chinese imports are flooding the market. energy costs are also high in the u.k., and the exchange rate is another disadvantage. the government would have to come up with measures to make the deal sweeter for potential buyers. >> looking at these issues of taxes, interest rates, energy costs, to make sure these industries can remain competitive in a very challenging environment. reporter: analysts believe that to address overcapacity european players may consolidate with mergers. the second-biggest steelmaker, hyssenkrupp,-- t has indicated it may combine with other corporations. the european steel industry employs 300,000 people. the industry rose after tata said it is selling, showing some investors believe mergers are possible and they may be the key to saving the sector. markus: argentina's economy minister says the country has turned a new leaf after the default in 2001, follows a decision by the senate to back a settlement with investors. this sett

the u.k. rket has rallied 11%. as in the rallied 8% since the middle of february. it is a real shift, having passed through the needle. , there counting the msci asian market lagging. you have that downgraded by moody's on that view of china. the yuan is stabilizing. the manufacturing data really caught the zeitgeist. anna: anything positive around that, to put it in context with that comment from the bank calling from a rate hike from the u.s. in march. still only a 22% chance. a nice line, manus. let us check in on some of the ofk assets, get a gauge where people are putting their money in the overnight session into australia. 0.72 on the aussie dollar, on the back of that gdp number, the dollar rising for a third day. gdp at 0.6%, better than the estimate. and the q3 number, also up. that helps. man is going up to 1.1%. the reserve bank of australia on pause. but dollar-yen, let's be fair. we dropped to 1.2% yesterday. the reason why i put euros sterling on there, there is a new feature on t