the eu and u.k. would try to get preferential access to the european markets and preserve the margins of preference, the preferential treatment it gets today. how much of that will be preserved, i don't know. that would depend a lot on the conversations between the two. what is important is that whatever happens there, we have to realize that the u.k. already does trade with the rest of the on wt a terms. that is already than arm and that's what exists today. it deals with china, the u.s., brazil and indonesia, all of that. that will not change. that is very important to bear in mind. what needs to be figure it out mostly is what happens to the trade relations between the u.k. and the eu and between the u.k. and those countries where the eu has preferential arrangements. tradeon the subject of relations, can we talk about trade relations between the u.s. under new president donald trump and the rest of the world? he is withdrawing from the tpp, and wants to renegotiate nafta and likes bilateral rather

if the u.k. will leave the eu, it is important the rest of the eu form solid relationships going forward. more aboutll talk the u.k. and a moment. one of the stumbling blocks seems to be contributions to nato. tothe u.s. is committed nato, and we are hearing those messages, if they are committed, there does seem an expectation that europe will have to pay more. which economies can afford to pay more for defense? >> everyone will have to pay a little bit more. it will be done by gdp and population-weighted numbers. i imagine that's how it will fall. there is a point here. there is a price for everything, and europe will have to pay more going forward. anna: europe trying to get a handle on what the u.s. administration makes of it, to work with europe on? with those to deal old challenges like the greek crisis. roll your eyes, david. we are at their again. more conversations around greece taking place today in brussels. the second round of the third bailout, that kind of magnitude of things. do we r

in -- in the u.k. e seen theresa may and her government being tested over the oingization and they were going to be tested by this unilever acquisition but that hasn't come to pass. what kind of industrial strategy should countries like the u.s. and u.k. be adopting? >> i think we have to remain open to investment, that's an important thing. when you talk about industrial strategy, the porn thing the government here has said is it wants to review that and have a more active approach toward ensuring that the government supports the economy, the whole economy, across the whole of the country, in terms of investment, bhilleding skills and as i said before, helping people to be ready to compete internationally. that's a policy that they're launching. there's a consultation going on at the moment and in the next few months they'll take that forward. anna: does that mean blocking m&a could be ok if it were going to lead to job losses? >> i think we'd have to look at that carefully. the policy in this country

and the u.k. on the same point in the economic cycle, which is an incredible point to make, and then the perception of a tightening of relations between the u.s. and the u.k. anna: the ecb is still carrying on with its quantitative easing plans at the moment. his mark carney definitely neutral? yesterday we saw him declining to confirm whether officials at the bank of england are still committed to that neutral claim. , in termsk of england ad aur positive view has re-tweaking of the assumptions in regard to employment. that's pushed out the time and potential of when the bank of england will move. i think sooner rather than later the market will come back to the idea that the economic fundamentals are stronger than people have anticipated post >> it. that means the august move from last year, the rate cut, perhaps that should be reversed and we should start to see the rates market price that in more seriously in the second half of the year. that's part of our positive story as well. anna: thank yo

anna: i was and to sit comments about the u.k. economy. the u.k. has been doing better than many people expected in the wake of the brexit vote, but there was downside to come. when you think about the problems this bank has faced even indecent times for the u.k. economy, that would be the last thing they need is weakness on their home turf. >> the bank of england is forecasting for a falling gdp next year. we do not know exactly how things are going to play out with article 50 being triggered by theresa may in the coming months. what happens to the uk's economy is a big uncertainty. we are entering into a relative position of strength. we come through the brexit vote in june much better than people thought that the u.k. economy royal bank in a reasonable position given that it is focusing on the u.k. economy and that is performing ok for now, that we'll see how it goes. thea: you look at eye-watering -- >> one of the reasons they are taking huge provisions was so that 2017 would be a much cleaner year for them. they are trying to put these issues b

financial conditions in the u.k. in supportive, underpinned by falling rates and lower credit spreads. moreover, domestic credit conditions are accommodated, competitiony strong and consumer credit markets and historically low mortgage rates. in part this represents the bank of england's policy, chas lowered the uncertainty on activity. november, case in there are few signs that households are cutting spending ahead of the -- household that picking up. adjust theirs spending and expectations of future income will be important determinants of the outlook. stronger projection does not mean the referendum is without consequence. uncertainty over future arrangements is weighing on business investment, which has been flat since the end of 2015. this investment is expected to be around a quarter lower than projected prior to the referendum, with material consequences for productivity, wages, and income. the level of gdp is still expected to be one and a half percent lower in two years time than we projected in may, despite

matt: william hobbs, is the u.k. arket to lucrative to sacrifice or is this just going to be one of the things that that country has to deal with as a result of voting to leave the european union? personally, i do not think brexit should be definitive. we go back to the view that we long-held actually that if the u.k. did decide to exit the e.u. , votes to exit the e.u., that brexit would prove a headwind. william: if we are talking about tariffs, the fact is, global tariffs have come down such a long way that you are not dealing with, you have, it should not be a game changer in terms of the tariffs even in a hard brexit scenario, which probably seems the most likely one. in our opinion, the automotive industry can survive. technological advances are likely going to continue to come over lavrov of time, reduce over ayment -- reduce -- long period of time, reduce employment in the sector. that does not mean productivity cannot continue to increase and output cannot continue to increase. the u.k. workers in are already

that 17% probably for the u.k. year, -- anna: and we are watching the news headlines, we should be ready for this ping-pong scenario, where the article 50 bills goes to the commons, to the lords, maybe even back again, then back again. this is something we are being set up for. could we see delays around the timeframe? >> baby. markets look at it and it is happening. whether it happens in march or april, it is happening. ultimately, when we get into those negotiations, as we get to the end, that is one of the market focus will be, like a laser, on the details. anna: thank you very much. nick stays with us. manus: up next, the commodity come back. rio tinto is using the valley to cash in and cut the borrowing. the cost of insuring as bonds plunge. we have a spectacular chart of the our next. the discussion straight after this short break. ♪ >> welcome back. it is 3:30. week in the busy market. trunk is speaking a number of times in this week. it is a new addition of daybreak. >> let's take a look at top stories bloo

the u.k. prime minister promises on article 50. parliament concludes later today. lendingd second biggest company will pay a higher dividend than expected, after reporting the first gain in annual profit since 2013. this is "bloomberg surveillance." we are expecting breaking news out of india. -- theanged the policy world bank of india changed its policy stands to neutral. the rupee -- i do not know if you have a chart. the rupee pared some gains as panel held rates steady. they are changing their policy stands to neutral from accommodative. this is a picture that may imply the rupee holding off for a couple of months, in terms of the gains we saw. we will get back to that shortly. first, this is the rest of your market. we are expecting a little bit of fluctuation in terms of some of the currency. european stocks gaining. asian stocks recovered a touch from early losses. this is the picture for the .ndian sensex it was lower as we were waiting for this r.b.i. decision. european stocks -- rio t

the u.k. of the european union asked parliament. mp's warn the approval should not be mistaken for unconditional support. brexit minister david davis outlined his vision for the future in a white paper. he confirmed the u.k. will need both the single market and the customs union, which enable british exporters to trade tariff-free with the rest of the block. the bank of england left rates on qe unchanged yesterday. it upgraded its economic forecast and revealed that some policymakers are more concerned about inflation. mark carney said the central bank is ready to respond as the u.k. begins its formal exit from the european union. >> it will be the country's new relationship with the e.u. and the reforms that it catalyzes. these processes will have a significant bearing on inflation over the next few years. sebastian: smaller manufacturers warn of higher inflation. the collapse of the pound is driving up the cost of raw materials. costs rose at the quickest pace since 2011. the confederation of

are the pickups coming into the u.k.? >> we've got very strong numbers everywhere. s the kind of always getting better program that we have. we had a record 95% low in the factories. it is across all of europe. people continue to travel in the u.k. but people are traveling in the lower third. over the next 24 months, we may see a slowdown in the u.k. economy. impact not only on the u.k. but elsewhere. that is why we have to be cautious. there is a huge amount of opportunities. we only hit 15% market share in europe. there are a massive amount of things that we continue to do. hopefully we are not going away. >> are you thinking about scrapping the u.k. domestic region? >> we are reviewing it. a lot of it depends on the open skies. >> this is something that we can do. it is relatively simple. if you look at our domestic u.k., we have three domestic routes on our network. it is a small part of our business. however, if we get close to the brexit and it seems this business is be want to stay in the, then we can, of course, open up a narrow certificate in the u.k. and op

. [♪] >> announcer: as the u.k. rliament votes to leave the european union, bangs and markets may bear the burden. how will that affect your trish: the british parliament voting this week to give theresa may the official power to ditch the european union. gary: we are back with bob diamond. you spend some time in london as ceo of barclays. what do you make of the brexit situation? are you surprised it hasn't d more an impact in terms of asset prices? >> actually, i am. i love the fact that i can vote in the u.k. as well as the u.s. my family was there long enough that we had passports in the u.k. as well as the u.s. i voted to leave and i was wrong. but i have to say it's bench more calm post that decision than i would have expected. i think the financial services industry in london will be a dominant financial services industry, by think it will be smaller. i think the biggest beneficiary of that financial center is not paris or dublin. i think it's new york. the bismght s. firms doing bert than the european firms w

getting some retail sales data out of the u.k. tail sales unexpectedly fell for a third month in january. that suggests consumers are starting to feel the squeeze from accelerating inflation. the volume of goods sold in stores and online declined 0.3% following a 2.1% plunge in december. that has been revised downwards from 1.9%. in the three months through january, sales dropped 0.4%, the worst quarterly performance since 2013. these figures add to evidence that the cooling in household spending is materializing as ritonsse find their -- b find their purchasing power falling. according to a statistician come of the data shows the first signs of a fall in the underlying trend since december 2013. she says the evidence suggests increased prices in fuel and food are significant factors in this slowdown. my guest is one of the biggest figures in u.k. retailing, best known for his tenure at the helm of sainsbury's unaware he faced the challenge of the german discounters and spearheaded a push into smaller stores. in a 30-year career, h

curiosity, have you in that point of time with the u.k. member of the you -- eu, have you modeled with the u.k. if it were to significantly cut its corporation tax aggressively let's say would have on the economy and the european economy? pierre: no. now we are at the moment when the british parliament just agreed on portal 15. it will open the negotiation. it is really unrealistic to speculate about the outcome of negotiations that did not even start. move past that. we will the go she ate in the interests of the 27 members of the eu outside of the u.k.. when we negotiate it will be in the british interests. i think it was rational that the u.k. is not in the global market. we will see the full freedoms and that -- finally when you are a member of the club, you have privileges. you can't have the same when you are no more a member of the club did it must not be as good. as you say in see the u.k.. i do believe that the u.k. can and will be a tax haven. guy: ok. two quick questions. you said it would be a tragedy of france were to leave si

. [♪] >> announcer: as the u.k. rliament votes to leave the european union, bangs and markets may bear the burden. how will that affect your [vo] quickbooks introduces rodney. he has a new business teaching lessons. rodney wanted to know how his business was doing... ...so he got quickbooks. it organizes all his accounts, so he knows where he stands. ahhh...that's a profit. way to grow, rodney! visit quickbooks.com. dtry align junior probiotic.th digestive balance? so she can have a fraction dominating... status updating... hello-yellow-belt kind of day. get 24/7 digestive support with align junior. the #1 doctor recommended probiotic brand, now for kids. trish: the british parliament voting this week to give theresa may the official power to ditch the european union. gary: we are back with bob diamond. you spend some time in london as ceo of barclays. what do you make of the brexit situation? are you surprised it hasn't had more an impact in terms of asset prices? >> actually, i am. i love the fact that i can vote i

told yesterday is that lawmakers and the u.k. ll not be able to say we don't like this deal you need to go back to the eu and renegotiate. they will have to either take it or leave it. if they were to leave it, that could put the u.k. in a difficult position where it has to revert to the wto terms for trade. mark: yesterday, they overwhelmingly backed the motion opposing the start or the indication of article 50. that vote sparked this reaction today from prime minister theresa may. the supreme court was very clear that the scottish parliament does not have a veto on the triggering of article 50. is going through the house obviously is giving the power to the government to trigger article 50. i would also remind him of this point because he constantly refers to the interests of scotland inside the european union. an independent scotland would not be in the european union . mark: we could be heading toward at least another independent referendum debate. opposition within scotland rages doesn't? it? nejra: yes, there has been a new

the austrian chancellor says the u.k. will be charged 60 billion euros to leave the e.u. e got british mp ian and smith -- reaction next. plus, what does a post-brexit u.k. hold for the technology sector? we will be speaking to the founder of tech london advocates. later, the bundesbank executive board member joins us on surveillance. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: you are watching our weekly brexit show. i'm francine lacqua. let's check on your markets. nejra: it looks to be a risk off broadly across markets today. by taking to the gmm, you can see weakness in european equities. this follows losses in asia after the rallies in global above $7pushed value trillion. a bit of caution in equity markets today. a bit of weakness against the dollar. euro, 1.0589. the bloomberg dollar index overall unchanged. not a huge move in bond markets. we are seeing those yields coming down. a bit of a mixed picture in commodities. we've seen copper rebounding from a loss of 3% on the london metal exchange yesterday. gold higher. silver up for a ninth street weekly gain. i'll go more into c

the u.k. treasury has said rbs will provide 750 million pounds of initiative to boost competition in u.k. banking. ceo ross mcewen told the financial times that the bank may return to profit next year. rbs is scheduled to announce annual earnings on friday. the pboc says chinese banks had more than $3.8 trillion of wealth management products held off their balance sheets. that is a 30% increase from a year earlier. the central bank says this shadow banking outpaced the 10% growth in normal lending, raising risks for the broader economy. jpmorgan and bnp paribas have said foreign companies will sell more yuan bonds in china this year as the government started allowing the two banks to underwrite corporate notes. jpmorgan says it is having an active dialogue with global clients about possible issuance. b.n.p. paribas said it may expand its onshore debt capital markets team which now consists of three people after it gained wider access to the market. that is the bloomberg business flash. francine

>> has the right honorable gentleman knows, when the u.k. government negotiate, it will be negotiating the government for the whole of the united kingdom. we have put in place the arrangements through various committees, which enable us to work closely with the administration to identify the particular issues that they want to see represented in our view is together. we have said we will intensify discussions with and not arrangement and that is exactly what we will be doing. >> when the prime minister was in peterborough on the 15th of july last year, until they have been agreed u.k. approach. given the scottish parliament has voted overwhelmingly against the approach at all or one mp representing the scottish constituency has put this against her approach. she does not have been agreed u.k. vote. >> mr. speaker, as the prime minister niles, a lot of people watch prime minister's questions. so will she tell those viewers in scotland whether she intends to keep her word to scotland or not. >> we are ensuring that we are working closely with t

the u.k. capital housing market underperform the rest of the country last year after brexit and tax increases weighed on investor demand. global news 24 hours a day, powered by 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries around the world. this is bloomberg. manus: thank you. japan's exports disappointed. shipments for january, they rose 1.3%, well short of the expected 5%, a yawning trade deficit could see japan's trade growth worsen. mark, great to see you. ofk, a disappointing set numbers, but exports to the u.s. dropped by 6.6%. everything is grand and they will be able to make a good case for a bilateral trade deal with mr. trump when they sit down. >> i mean, that is definitely one part of it. they can say, look, you don't need to impose trade barriers or protectionist measures. our exports to the us is dropping. they still had a trade surplus, which is not great news. they are worried, saying the exports are not growing as much as they would like, implying they need further y

. [♪] >> announcer: as the u.k. rliament votes to leave the european union, bangs and markets may bear the burden. how will that affect your ♪ across new york state, from long island to buffalo, from rochester to the hudson valley, from albany to utica, creative business incentives, infrastructure investment, university partnerships, and the lowest taxes in decades are creating a stronger economy and the right environment in new york state for business to thrive. let us help grow your company's tomorrow - today at esd.ny.gov afoot and light-hearted i take to the open road. healthy, free, the world before me, the long brown path before me leading wherever i choose. the east and the west are mine. the north and the south are mine. all seems beautiful to me. trish: the british parliament voting this week to give theresa may the official power to ditch the european union. gary: we are back with bob diamond. you spend some time in london as ceo of barclays. what do you make of the brexit situation? are you surprised it ha

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. [♪] >> announcer: as the u.k. rliament votes to leave the european union, bangs and markets may bear the burden. markets may bear the burden. how will that affect your why is there neverite, enough of it? a john deere 1 family tractor with quik-park lets you attach and go. imatch quick-hitch gives you more time for what you love. so it takes less work to do more work. autoconnect drive-over mower deck? done. they're not making any more land. but there's plenty of time if you know where to look. now you can own a 1e sub-compact tractor for just $99 a month. learn more at your john deere dealer. we believe everyone deserves a great night's sleep. (announcer) at boll and branch, so we created the perfect sheets. made from pure, 100% organic cotton. we made it our mission to perfect every detail. until finally, the softest, most comfortable sheets you'll ever sleep on. try them for 30 nights and get $50 off your first set at bollandbranch.com, promo code: tv. trish: the british parliament voting this week to give there

the u.k.'s house of lords starts a detailed examination of prime minister theresa may's exit legislation today. a number of amendments are expected to be put forward, including one which would give parliament a binding vote on the final brexit deal. the pound is down against all its major peers after a report said may's office is preparing for sultan to call another independence referendum. the independent french presidential candidate emmanuel macron has won a third endorsement in a week on the suggesting he is favored to win the upcoming election. techcrunch is seen challenging francois fillon with the far right leader marine le pen expected to win the first ballot. she is currently expected to lose in the second round. the suspended president of south korea has denied involvement in wrongdoing according to the news agency. it sites are written comments to the constitutional court, which is holding its final hearing on her impeachment. park was suspended over a scandal about influence involvi

. [♪] >> announcer: as the u.k. rliament votes to leave the european union, bangs and markets may bear the burden. how will that affect your investments? why pause a spontaneous moment? cialis for daily use treats ed and the urinary symptoms of bph. tell your doctor about your medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, or adempas® for pulmonary hypertension, as this may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess. to avoid long-term injury, get medical help right away for an erection lasting more than four hours. if you have a sudden decrease or loss of hearing or vision, or an allergic reaction, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about cialis. voti this week to give theresa may the ficial power to ditch theuropean union. gary: we are back with bob diamond. you spend some time in london as ceo of barclays. what do you make of the brexit situation? are you surprised it hasn't had more an

we should be proud in the u.k. that we have some of the highest animal welfare standards in the world -- indeed, one of the highest scores for animal protection in the world and leaving the e.u. will not change this. i can assure my right honorable friend that we are committed to maintaining and, where possible, improving animal welfare in the u.k. it ensuring our industry is not put at a competitive disadvantage. >> thank you, mr. speaker. last week, russia decriminalized domestic violence committed against women and children. i trust the government will encourage russia to rethink this aggressive approach, which federalize his domestic violence rate -- domestic violence. they are ratifying the federal convention with russia and way should be placed on ending gender-based violence. pm may: can i first of all say that i am proud that in this country we have strengthened the law on domestic violence against women and girls. we see this as a threat of the russian government. repealing existing legislation sends the wr

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mark: the u.k. s scheduled to vote on the article 50 hill which would give theresa may the authority to trigger the brexit process. one number talked about the future of the country's trade with the eu. >> the truth is that while britain is seeking the maximum possible access to the single market for goods and services, and while we hope the fact we have a trade deficit and important financial center will count in our favor, the government has chosen, and i respect this decision, not to make the economy the priority. mark: for the latest on the article 50 debate, let's go to westminster. former chancellor george osborne's comments highlight the division within parliament, within the conservative party itself on this very sensitive subject. what these rather acidic remarks illustrate is not so , ih the opposition to brexit think most mps see this as a done deal but to the direction be takingy seems to the brexit -- a hard brexit, leaving the single market. there's a great deal of uncertainty as to wha

she said it is not because the u.k. ing the eu that she is not concerned about the so clearly aue balancing act for theresa may here. the eu leaders are well aware that she will use this special relationship that the u.k. is trying to rebuild with the u.s. as leverage in the brexit negotiations. will be included in the morning discussions on migration and in the lunch where they are supposed to discuss donald trump. thelater in the afternoon, 27 will meet without the u.k. to discuss a common strategy less than two months before brexit is triggered. manus: caroline, thank you very much for the latest. owen is still with us. the great gathering. the political context in terms of germany benefiting from the the euro. set itsa administration cap. david: absolutely right. is going to try to form that bridge between the u.s. and the rest of the eu but at the same time, the u.k. is moving towards brexit and the rest of europe will be slightly skeptical about what the u.k. is saying. thing is soigration big. the refugee crisis.

the new u.k. e agreements with non-eu countries will not come close to offsetting the impact of leaving the eu. the national institute of economic and social research critics that leaving the single market could lead to a long-term reduction in british trade up to 30%. they say increased trait tribute deals would boost trade by less than 3%. boostdeals would trade by less than 2%. that's practical over place ted budd, who had been in the role for one year. over attracted new fans the holidays. they beat estimates. they saw two .5 million more phones in the third quarter than the year before. 2.5 million more phones in the third quarter than the year before. vonnie: time for our bloomberg take. today, we look at the supreme court. president donald trump has nominated neil gorsuch and concerns that he will be [indiscernible] and will not be are to the left like previous republican nominees. to the left like previous republican nominees. until voluntary retirement or on the courtacancy has raised conc

i'm sure many people in the u.k. tion certainly have second thoughts about brexit because trump really changed the game and not in their favor. wek: how do you expect -- just saw pictures of justin trudeau, the canadian prime minister, visiting the european parliament. once article i 50 is triggered, say by the end of march if theresa may sticks to her plan, how do you expect the early negotiations to unfold? well look, i think the early negotiations are very much driven by the european institutions. don't forget we have a number of elections upcoming, the netherlands, france, and then germany, so the political guidance from the big countries is going to be very weak at least until fall of this year, which means that the european union institutions are the driving seat. i think they've made clear that they take a tough line. they want to take a sequential line. first, we discuss the terms of the exit. recently the brexit bill. and then, only then, once that is settled, we can discuss the future trading relations betwe

out of the u.k., u.k. industrial production rising the 1.1% in december, manufacturing have been a better than estimated performance in the fourth quarter. it means it rose by .2% in the fourth quarter, rather than being unchanged as previously estimated. they will do little to change the view that the economy is very much led by the services and by the consumer, which could be under pressure as inflation rises, putting a squeeze on real income, potentially in 2017. 90 minutes into the trading day u.s.e how is it looking, abigail? higher, stocks trading the dow jones, s&p 500 and nasdaq higher. day,ow jones for a second above that, so really some nice games pass that psychological milestone. the s&p 500 and nasdaq up for a fourth day, so a bullish street for stocks. top sector on the days energy. the first day since february 1, best 30 days since china way 24. this on the news that opec achieved 90% compliance for supply cut deals and a shift from the past. there has been a history of making deals and not a

we have 52 chambers of and down the u.k.. at they tell us is they actually want a brexit wheel that focuses on the impact on places and real-world businesses, not necessarily a deal. they want the broadest possible deal that gives them the most frictionless trade possible. they want an ambitious agenda with the rest of the world. they are saying with lower sterling and the prospects of new trade deals they are looking at other markets. the rest of the world is certainly on the horizon for many businesses as well. marshall, joining us from westminster. barcelona or the ceo is standing by to speak with this program. president trump will lay down the budget plan. how they are positioning themselves ahead of the congressional address and later. starbucks ceo says china will overtake the u.s. in terms of stores. that interview and plenty more to come. this is bloomberg. the open is 18 minutes away. guy: let's catch up with juliette with the bloomberg class. >> south korea's special for other -- executives. formal charges would mean

hird in the u.k. rogress and we like the balance of having a strong consumer business, particularly in the u.k. where we have a sitter dell position -- a position, anchored in but with anew york global presence. we like the balance that gives to our profile. it is a strategic advantage for barclays. james, what is your take on barclays' restructuring? the focus on growth? james: i think he has further to go in that we have not seen the real fruit being born from the lehman act. optimistic during the global financial crisis. i would expect a further extension of margins and growth before we have an acquisition making strategic sense for them. speak down cold. this is an unfair comparison. the blue line jp morgan. let's call that the best case out ofthe lehman lows the bottom. coming out of the lehman lows are equities has a huge outperformance versus jp morgan and has not gone anywhere. what is the catalyst to barclays' banking, to the united kingdom banking? james: we have to get an end to the regulato

u.k. get from the eu? so, that deal still is critical for the u.k. en we understand migration, we understand the deal. manus: the demographics would suggest it is a challenge after 2020, in terms of the aging population. i want to get a sense from you as a u.k. economist, are you surprised from the financial conditions and consumer confidence? financial conditions, this is a bloomberg financial conditions chart. it is healthy. it is certainly in an upward trajectory. does that run with your thinking? does that sustain, or will that hit jumps as well? >> i think that can sustain. i would be more word about the long-term consequences. brexit will reduce potential growth to 1.8%. in the near term, can bridge and resolve its domestic political problems, which it did. and then with the eu, with the bank of england stepping in to provide liquidity. anna: you think she is nonconfrontational? >> at the start she was. we have somes saw, dangers from brexit, but not in the near term. the economy is mostly done in a non-brexit scenario, which is the critical poi

taking the u.k. of the european union has passed its first test in parliament where lawmakers agree to a lovely private minister start negotiations by the end of march. they backed theresa may by 498-114. approval warned the should not be mistaken for unconditional support to negotiate freely. the government will publish an outline of the brexit plans today. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . manus: we have equities. juliette saly standing by. i was asia taking the signaling? >> certainly the yen has weighed in on the mckay. juliette: weakness in a late trade, coming up from the korean won as well. the feds, not much new. fora lot of movement investors willing to dip their toes into the markets. quite a bit of weakness coming through hong kong down .7%. catch-up.ying hong kong was closed for lunar new year. their 76.43 after the trade balance beating expectations. we have also

what's interesting, powers will be taken away if the u.k. leaves. it hasn't really been specified which powers. that is soften the blow. northern ireland and scotland, they voted to remain. these are crucial points in this large document. >> here is some other headlines. in romania more protests have been taking place against the degrees -- decrees against corruption. the government's decrees could freeze dozens of officials jailed for corruption of the prime minister says he will press ahead with his decision. the russian president has arrived in budapest to meet the hungarian leader. he has been calling on the european union to lift sanctions on russia. sanctions travel bans, one u.s. tech giant is pleading for exceptions to that recent travel restriction. you have that story. >> talking trump again. microsoft has asked donald trump for an exemption to his contentious travel ban. the president has sent a proposal to the new administration requesting case-by-case reviews. corporations like microsoft rely on talent from around the world to create the

and the u.k. what we've seen over the last week is a shift away from that and towards the multiple political events in europe. i think that is catching the markets' attention. that is potentially where concerns are starting to rise. francine: so it is not a concern on brexit or what a trump administration will bring with it. simon: that is how we started the year, but now we're in the wait and see mode. we've not had the extremes of policy that perhaps people were thinking about. to me, we've seen a shift in focus. people have talked a little about perhaps what is happening on the currency side, but we've not seen the extremes of moves in the bond market we've seen perhaps back in december. francine: richard, has anything shifted in the markets? richard: i don't think it has. i think the markets are looking for the theme that is going to drive them forward this year. i think there's also uncertainty about the situation in the united states. president trump has taken all the limelight with his polit

it is the u.k. that will be negotiating. e listen, we take account of, and we incorporate views of scotland, northern ireland and wales, but when i am sitting there around the e.u. council, i am doing so as the prime minister of the united kingdom. mr. cash: did my right hon. friend observe that after she had spoken to the 27 they were far more realistic, particularly with respect to the question of defence and nato, than they had been beforehand, and in particular than in respect of donald tusk's letter to the 27, which he sent them on 31 january? pm may: my hon. friend is absolutely right; there is a growing recognition among the member states of the european union that within nato it is important to meet the 2% commitment for expenditure on defence. i am pleased to say that a small number of other european member states have already reached that 2% level, but others are actively moving towards that >> nobody is talking about replacing. ist we're talking about agreements with other parts of the world. i suspect the general

coming up, the u.k. ublishes its brexit white paper, the plans for leaving the european union. we will break it down. this is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: you are watching bloomberg. i am vonnie quinn. mark: and i am mark barton. here is what we are watching today. sales are booming, but profits only rise slightly as the company improves its technology push. we will hear from daimler's ceo. vonnie: betting on president trump, and so far, it is paying off. mark: after years of relative stability, the dying country may be heading down the new pass as the philippines president threatens to head on a new path. vonnie: daimler says it will rise slightly this year. the company has vowed to increase investment in electric cars and self driving cars. after meeting with the trump administration, here is the ceo. >> we were talking about two weeks. typically we have a 100-day rule to get more on the direction. i at least prescribe ourselves this kind of patience. georgia bank posted fourth-quarter trading revenues that mis

redundantly the u.k. and norway have been impacted by the low price of oil.il is bottoming out, it is stable and we see that picking up over the coming years. we have a very large installed base. a mature market. don't expect to see growth but we expect to see stable business. and i ask you what is coming politically in europe and any concerns you have surrounding that area the financial markets are beginning to indicate nervousness. tom: we have a regional model for mmo regions. -- we don'td by import, export. we generate 95% locally. we are not as effective as other companies may be look at cross-border transactions. you're not concerned about the flow of people because you hire locally as well? the case.s we have 4000 people in the u.k.. they are local and will stay there after brexit. adding value and generating the -- business. guy: thank you very much for your time. snap credit suisse has posted a loss after taking a litigation challenge. the setback resulted in a second executive -- consecutive annual loss. in zurich where she is speaking to the ceo. h

europe and the u.k. hey can win and lose. ,f there is a mutual agreement a friendly agreement and that is much better than the opposite because from a european perspective it means he u.k. would become an offshore center, a supply driven economy which would generate a lot of capital imports and that will strengthen sterling. francine: thank you so much. the coop, we speak with of bayer -- the ceo of bayer. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ francine: this is bloomberg surveillance. i am francine lacqua in london with tom keene in new york. total ceo said opec and russia need to prolong their six-month deal to cut output if they plan to trim the global glut. they spoke with john mickelthwait. >> i am convinced we will have to do it, opec and also russia, we have to understand what happened in november is a necessary agreement between opec and non-opec and the real problem was russia, the fact that russia for the first time in history, and the leadership of vladimir putin excepted to make cuts, was the driver which is

peter grant. >> my assessment has been for the u.k. government, if you minutes ago, namely that with islamic phobia being propagated in america, it may be easier for daesh to recruit? >> i agree with the phenomenon, i understand the phenomenon to which he alludes and we all need to work harder and work together with our american friends and partners to tackle that sense of exclusion and isolation which can drive extreme hate. >> for women's rights or torture, you're on one side or the other end how many refugees will we take to offset the ban? how many women's organizations will receive funding from us? will he rethink that highest honor? >> this country has a proud record of taking refugees and international organizations and campaigning for female victims of sexual violence and conflict. we have done more than any other country in the world to do that and we continue those. as for his point about the state, i repeat my point. her majesty the queen has extended that invitation. it is proper that we should go ahead and it will. >> could

the u.k. t bill which gives prime minister teresa may to start the divorce from the eu will fleet a final round of debate. the opposition labor party with leader jeremy corbin ready to unleash a whip. he suggested that front benchers may not be sacked. saying he was quote a very lenient person. >> a shadow secretary of state and international climate change as well. >> first of all, i want to get your take on this survey. 100 of the biggest companies surveyed say brexit has had a negative impactb on their business. what should the government do? >> i was in a business in new yorksure last week. they make the hudson bay blankets. and the chief executive of that company had voted in the referendum to leave the eu. thee was the was absolutely unthinkable weicide move fords an increase in tariff. he thought we couldn't be serious. now the government must give real agerns on this point. because if they do income into play, then our businesses are go poog be at a real disadd vantage. . what we've see

the minutes. those are out at 7:00 p.m. u.k. ors will be looking for clues as to how tight the federal reserve's conversation is pure you can follow that on yourtliv fund -- your tliv function. they are lining up, aren't they, like ducks, trying to shift the probability function of 38%. in march if the probability function is not up around 70%, 80% probability? with a really do something shocking like move without the market being fully briefed? jonathan: it would be a complete shift in yellen's approach so far, which has so far been to lead the market once the market expect to move. you can then make the move. do not make the move and surprised the market. at the moment, as you say, it is not looking likely in march. it is looking likely in may because that is where the probabilities are in terms of what the market is expecting, and i still suspect may is the most likely. it will be interesting to see what comes out of trump's discussion of congress in less than one week now. manus: yes. jonathan: and his phenomenal corporation

the u.k. or the u.s.? >> probably the u.k. >> i think that has everything to do with the history of how african people came to each of the continents really, and to a certain extent it matters that people of color in large part came to the u.k. in recent history, because they wanted to. as opposed to being taken and i think that makes a huge difference. >> i love bail, one of my favorite movies ever now. since the theme of race is present in both films, two different pieces, both beautifully done by you. since race is present in the story line of both pieces, what did you learn from the journey of bail that helped you on a united kingdom. >> i learned to be more sub versive. in the way i tell my stories. you know, it's -- on the one hand, you get a bit of a love story in bail. the main love story you walk away with is a woman -- a woman's love for herself. and understanding her own value and the importance of that value. i learned to do that in hopefully subtle ways that engage accordions, here the love st

so a lot of the cars being made in the u.k. here and if they see big tariffs, that will be really problematic. that may be one thing that spurred the sales talks in the beginning. a lot of this depends on what goes on with the brexit wrote. maybe these companies just want to wipe their hands of it and get rid of these assets right now. peugeot will pick up a lot of production in continental europe. a lot of it depends on who wants which markets for these cars. miller will stay focused for breaking news throughout the day in germany. charlotte halled to shake things up at the bank of england. now she may be a candidate to succeed the governor, which would make her the first woman to hold that role. she will become deputy governor of markets and she starts her job next month. the agreement gives her the widest powers of any of mark carney's equities, two years before she plans to depart. let's bring in jeremy on the great debate on the bank of england. may have ake a woman pretty powerful position. she was brought in by carney, de

we surveyed china, the u.k., the u.s. about consumer intent.o surveyed consumer online about devices that have launched, and we look at google search data to measure intent versus the desire. we think we are at a tipping point where the devices are at a price point, consumer interest in starting to build, especially in markets like china and japan, and with a tipping point around price plus intent could mean going forward by adoption in the consumer marketplace. >> one additional question i have for you is how do you feed the play of content into the ecosystem? price is a key factor but the other is the availability of great content to make device useful. eric: it is a great question and at the heart of the matter. get build when they up our chicken and egg issues. you have to have the hardware and then you have to have the content. go back to the launch of the original iphone. or two forut a year the applications to catch up to the iphone. we see no difference here. when you listen to google, when you listen to facebook, they are g theng about