the u.s. about inflation. fedirman stanley fischer recently said he still thought a pretty strong case for raising rates this month. economic reports on retail sales , industrial production in the consumer price index in the u.s. could absolutely affect the fed's decision. nicole: mohammed al arian basically said what everyone has been thinking the u.s. case domestically they may raise the rates but to look at the global picture he said yellow, signs of caution. lauren: so does the imf and larry summers. nicole: let's turn to politics. a new poll shows bernie sanders leading hillary clinton by wide margins in new hampshire and iowa. in new hampshire he is leaving clinton 52% to 30% and in iowa 43% to 43%. bernie sanders on "meet the press" same way is more electable than hillary clinton. >> the american people and my stronger you are sick and tired of establishment politics in the establishment economics and they won a candidate prepared to stand up for the big money interests. wall street, corporate america that

the u.s. is slowing down, the fed is going to hike. cannot imagine a bear market or credit spread in ticket of of a contraction unless the economic data manifest that, and it hasn't gotten there yet. i think a lot of the fear we talked about in the beginning, this is a fear driven market. the credit spread is widening. it has to manifest some clarity before actually see some recovery. alix: if you look at the bloomberg world index, we have not yet seen it leaked through to the economic indicators. kathryn: that's exactly right. from the u.s. perspective, i'm expecting a deceleration in the second half. i don't think we will retain the amount of inventory accumulation. i think that will retract. i think the strong dollar is a real risk and that's part of the reason why the fed is going to be reluctant to hike in september. great stuff, thank you so much for helping us break it down. when we come back, which major country just held raising interest rates because it believes the u.s. fed will delay an extreme increase? the answer, when we

well, traditionally, the fed focuses on u.s. data only. t this time, during the q and thehey referred to international influence. for example, the growth outlook in china. but please do not forget that the fed nevertheless -- the most important influence of the fed nevertheless remains the u.s. labor market and the prospect for inflation. in the u.s., the labor market is tied to unemployment -- and went down to 5.1%. unless we have huge market turbulence in asia, we will quite likely see the fed to start the rate hike process, i would say, in december. next: so all eyes on the big jobs report coming out of the u.s.. how important will wage growth be here? joerg: this is very important. the unemployed rate, this is really good and strong. wages,sing link is the when you look at the employment cost index. we expected somewhat. but the labor market is tied, and the ratio of unemployed to openings, it is only a question of time before you also see wage growth to pick up somewhat. expect that the an employment rate goes down, and therefore, dece

the u.s. to some extent. the fact that the u.s. market theged to move so far after fedision shows there were priced in.ikes we can learn from yellen, what is it she told us about the world economy and u.s. economy? inflation is not doing what it is supposed to do. a littles been disappointing. the international situation has been disappointing. a lot of that is true for europe. drug isyou think disappointed or elated? if you would like the to keep a bit more pace than it might have had, you are pleased she did not raise rates. our point ofrom view, the ecb is going to look at the developments over summer. the developments over summer had the fed back from moving, at the beginning of a tightening cycle. the ecb, means for still in the midst of easing, implies more easing. guy: you think more qe comes down the road. think in the fourth quarter they will announce an extension of qe. you raise the pace of purchases, and the lady groundwork to do that, or you extend the going to end of the program. guy: thank you. it is a 6:40 three in london, 7:43 in paris. let me tell you

the big unknown is how markets will react to the u.s. fed policy meeting after the economy has benefitted from almost a decade of near zero interest rates. that's the wild card everyone is watching. >>> moving on to other markets in the asia-pacific region. in china the shanghai composite sank 2.67 closing at 3114. that's the sharpiest one day fall in three weeks. investors shrugged off the government's plan to revamp the state-run companies. investors in hong kong cheered beijing's reform plan. it rebounded 0.3 brs. kospi slid half a percent. malaysia up by 2.25% after the government announced its stimulus package. sidney rote half of a percent. here's a look at some of the other business stories we're following. >>> the number of new condominium put on sale in tokyo rose almost 24%. analysts say demand is expected to rise ahead of a planned consumption task hut in 2017. some developers are launching sales of new units. japan will provide $110 billion to build infrastructure in asia. finance ministry officials want the japan backed bank to

wall street overnight, still, trading volume remains low with many investors keeping eyes on the u.s. fed's policy announcement later today. the nikkei average climbed 1 .4%, up for the third straight session to finish at 18,432. the broader topix followed near 1 .3% up, many expopoers gained on a relatively weaker yen. air conditioner maker daikin industries road 4%, and shiseido up 6% of the major brokerage upgrading the assessment. japex up 3% oof a jump of crude oil prices in new york. sony rose 4% after announcing a medical device that uses 4k medical imaging technology. on the downside, regional banks were down 2 .9%, and fukuoka group down 3 .2%, and swiss downgraded both ratings. the u.s. inflation data released wednesday showed a monthly decline in august, and analysts say weak inflation figures could be a sign fed holds off on the interest rate hike. well, we'll know the answer for sure later on thursday. reporting from the tokyo stock exchange. >> all right, giang, thanks. >>> other markets in the asia pacific region ended mixed ahead of the fed's decision. in china, the shanghai

they'll be waiting for the u.s. fed policy meeting that takes place next week. easing the markets for now, but to get a clearer sense of direction, we have to wait until next week. aika nanao. >> thanks. >>> moving to others in the asia pacific region. the shanghai composite added 2.3% to hit its highest close in nearly three weeks. following weak trade data investors speculated the government may use further stimulus to support the slowing economy. other markets in the region were lifted by the rally in tokyo and shanghai. taiwan surged nearly 3.6% to close at the highest level in over three weeks. traders bought shares of apple suppliers on speculation over a new iphone launch. seoul's kospi rose 3%. and malaysia gained by 1%. >>> executives at toyota motor have unveiled their newest hybrid the prius. it's 10% more fuel efficient. the prius appeared on tuesday in las vegas. it's six centimeters longer and one and a half centimeters wider than the previous car. but it's two centimeters lower than the previous car providing stability. the new model goes on sale i

the u.s. fed's beige book showed some upbeat activity, some positives there. so how is all of that affecting the tokyo markets? >> good morning, ramin, they basically said that the u.s. economy is expanding just about everywhere, so that pushed up the dollar and led to that sharp rally in new york. so let's see how tokyo markets are opening this thursday. japanese stocks are snapping their losing streak for the first time in four days. the nikkei is up to 18,445, about 2%, and the topix is up nearly 2% as well, 1,495. and given the current levels, one analyst told me japanese shares look oversold. bulls say it's only a matter of time, to revive a rally in tokyo as japanese markets are outperforming in the region for the year. they say, improving earnings and a favorable currency are likely to help boost sentiment again. the weak yen usually helps japanese exports to earn more money abroad. and the dollar is rising again, around 120.60. and the beige book itself will not sway the feds' potential rate hike in september, but it's a piece of evidence the fed will u

the ten year u.s. treasury is being manipulated. you have the fed buying treasuries and you also have the chinese central bank who are also massive holders of treasuries but who have been selling u.s. bonds because they have been supporting the currency. so they have been selling dollars to buy the currency. it's allowing yields to rise. it's very difficult to reach straight across the bond market and straight back to what do they think the fed is going to do. i think it's just amplifiying it was people don't know. >> we'll talk more about the market moves and what we're going to do here. let's give you a run down of what to watch for this trading day. august cpi inflation data is due out at 8:30 a.m. eastern time. consumer pricing expected to remain unchanged as gas prices drop to also the strong dollar keeping inflation in check. core cpi which excludes food and energy forecasts arise .1% for a second straight month. at 10:00 a.m. we'll get the monthly sentiment survey for the national association of home builders. fed ex and cracker barrel will r

meanwhile, we heard from the u.s. fed president, james bullard, he's concerned the u.s. paid too much attention to the market volatility. he'll be on "squawk box" for a full hour starting at 1300 c.e.t. >> i don't know if we're being too harsh. china plucked an issue out of the air. they allowed janet yellen to be positiontive and not hike and blame it on china and any old excuse not to hike. >> they're going to hike at some point during the year. 64% in december. and as you mentioned in the press conference, it's not about when, it's about the trajectory and the speed of the increases. so, you know, i guess the market wanted to hear an all systems go rhetoric but in some ways she's standing pretty cautious on the global economy. >> globally. it's clearly a negative reaction in terms of risk/asset and yet we didn't get the hype. markets listening to her caution towards the global economy than the fact that we didn't get global tightening. >> it was quadruple. there was a lot of factors at play. futures contract expiring. people rotating options and the second highest vol

of course, one of the most likely negative consequences for the united states would be that if the u.s. fed raises rates while other central banks are keeping rates low, that would mean that the dollar would strengthen and that's bad news for american exporters. for "nightly business report," i'm becky quick in new york. >> mr. buffett also told becky that he purchased more shares of ibm in the third quarter but didn't specify the size of the investment. on bank of america, buffett reiterated his support for the ceo, brian moynihan, saying he opposes the split of the title. >> today the world bank said they should not raise interest rates until the global economy stabilizes. the chief economist said the fed risks triggering, quote, panic and turmoil, end quote, in emerging markets if it opts to hike interest rates at its next meeting next week. with today's move higher, is it possible that most of the selling is behind us? joining us, good friend and author, ron insana. good to see you, ron. thanks for coming in. >> thanks for having me. >> you make the point that this market is oversold fo

. >> central banks, the u.s. fed, we hear from several members of the fed at different times saying they are on track to raise rates sometime there year. but that would put them at odds with the majority of central banks across the world. do you think that they will raise rates before the end of the year and what kind of headwind might that be in the fourth quarter? >> i do think that the fed will raise rates at some point this year. i think that the maybe the october meeting, october 27th and october 28th, is on the table for a rate hike. it's all depending upon the economic and financial conditions going into na meeting. so if we see some better data coming out of china, if the corporate profits may be earnings didn't decline by 4%, if it was closer to 1% or flat which is what i'm expecting, i think the fed could have a good footing for actually hiking rates. the key isn't necessarily whether or not the fed hikes. it's why do they hike. if it's hiking because they think that the economy can handle it and inflation

the u.s. economist. global markets matter to the u.s. fedentially what they said over the weekend in jackson hole. they think there are reasons to raise rates. they want to raise rates but i think ultimately global pressure will keep them from doing that. trish: jared levy, there are, reports out that china has actually been buying up stocks, in part because you've got two-day holiday coming up. let's not forget, it is a country completely controlled by its government which can basically do anything it wants to do, including detain reporters and detain investors that have negative views on the chinese markets. what do you think is going to transpire? at some point do people wake up to say, enough, this can't be supported by a government that is communist ultimately? >> well, that is sort of what is happening, right? kind of like the american government can only do so much, right? with all stimulus we can only motivate so much. obviously china goes way, way over the edge. but trish, thing is this. the chinese number one, yeah, they're buying

the u.s. central bank is not raise them for -- has not raised them for nine years. the fedtime to move to stave off inflation, but there are warnings a premature move could hurt the global economy and the u.s. economy, and the fed seems to be walking a tightrope. >> the fed has a tremendous challenge right now. on the one hand, the job market looks pretty good. not perfect, but pretty good. wages are not rising at the rate many would like, and that includes the fed. inflation is below the target the fed set, 2% or so. but the volatility in financial markets, while not part of the fed's mandate, is not something the central bank ones to inflame -- wants to inflame. reporter: the oecd is cutting its forecast for 2015 and 2016, trimming 0.1% of the forecast. the organization for economic cooperation and of element believes in 3% growth globally, and has said the outlook in particular has worsened for emerging economies. let's look at markets on the back of that. we see gains in u.s. stock markets this session, as investors keep their eyes on the fed. the markets are being supp

connect theing to dos between fed policy and u.s. markets. the timing of when the fed decides to start raising rates affect your strategy, if it does at all? >> it does not too much. it is something we have been anticipating for at least a year. there are a lot of market who want them to get done with it already. take line toss, maybe a 45% chance we will do it this month versus 55% probability they will wait until at least december. i do not think anybody will be spooked by a 25 basis point increase when actually the historical relationship between core cpi and the fed funds rate implies we should be closer to 3% van 0%. >> let's talk about transitioning. treasuries are gaining. as olivia and i were talking about, the gains have shifted that it is unlikely because of volatility. with the odds lower of a federated hike this week, if the fed were to move, some say would have a major impact on the market. would that be the case in equities? >> i do not think it would have that impact on equities. what we typically find is leading up to the firs

fed scenarios. what happens if they hold off? two recent the dollar weakens and treasures rally? catherine: i think some of come off the u.s. dollar if they hold on. i know with the increase in the the fed fund forecast, but i do think that you will see pressure come off, some more percent -- support for emerging markets which has seen quite a hit in recent months. expecting that first high, but i think the company shipped from the chinese government that devaluation will keep the fed on hold. if the fed does hike and it remains a possibility, we think it will be one and done. we think the fed will accompany with language but we think at the end, it will also take pressure off of what has been a very strong full dollar rally. we do not think that is in the benefit of the u.s. economy and the fed does not want to see the consistently depreciating dollar. if the fed hikes tomorrow in the meeting, we think that impact it will signal a very gradual and minimalist tightening process. scarlet: got it. let's get back to the boj that we referenced how they declined to move ahead of the fed. it sat on its hands. you present the japan

the u.s. equity news. the fed will be making

the day ahead. in this case the fed is on our radar. lauren: analyst divided over what fed policymakers will do. some say the feds will raise rates to improve job market and a growing u.sed will not pull the trigger because they are concerned about low inflation and the impacts to hike would have which are very fragile. the central bank at the consumer level with the consumer price index, cpi index but expect patience there it doesn't look like too much evidence inflation is heating up. if you look at the core rate including energy prices, on expected to rise one 10th of 1%. besides the rate decision, the fed will also release its latest economic rejections. and of course you have a news conference held by fed chair janet yellen. everyone piecing together every word she says and looking through the statement. nicole: we want to tell you what the traders have been telling us. body language will raise rates this week. taking a pass in september. keith blade saying he believes they will not be a change in policy this week that the language will be more hawkish in town. he believes the fed should not raise rates at this time. we've been getting quotes as well. nicole: ther

appeals court is blocking samsung electronics from selling some of his older smart phones here in the u.s.. feds the ruling vindicates apple but it might not hurt samsung too much. that is because it applies to phones that are no longer popular. the most recent phone effected is the galaxy s3 which was released in 2012. >>> amazon has introduced a new tablet computer. it's making waves. it's called the fire. it cost only $50. amazon says the 7-inch tablet has front and back cameras and a speedy quad core processor. amazon will sell the tablets in a six pack for less than $250. >> and we also think people might use it for more dedicated purposes. you might use a tablet for an alarm clock. you might have one in the kitchen as a tv screen in your kitchen. >> the company has said it doesn't expect to profit from the tablets themselves but they hope customers will use them to access services like amazon prime. >>> the seattle aquarium has diagnosed a sea otter with asthma and training the animal to use an inhaler. look at that. the otter was diagnosed after trainers reported the sea otter was having

u.s. factory production fell to the lowest in 18 months. some argued that that might change the picture for the fed as it decides whether the u.s. economy can withstand higher rates. lynch had toerrill say about not raising the rates, maybe the best way to go now. >> the risk is they don't. the reason is because the international events have overtaken u.s. fundamentals, especially china. if they were to hike in september -- >> speculation growing that the fed with a late raising rates as the china situation has ignited concern about global growth. investors confident there will be a rate hike. the odds of a rate hike by december are 60%, but this week, that is down to 30% in terms of what they are telling us. percent before the chinese currency devaluation. there is historical evidence that the fed rarely issues a rate hike decision when the market is in correction, the turmoil we have seen in recent weeks. what you may have seen in the tuesday rally is the fact that the market is really anticipating no rate hike at this point. we shall see. back to you. angie: ok. we are counting it down. thank yo

the fed says an unremarkable 2% through 2018. gone are the days when the fed forecast acceleration in growth had approached 4%. still, yellen said if it were just focused on the u.seconomic data it's good enough for the fed to have raised rates already. >> the u.s. economy is reasonably healthy. the job market is good. overall consumption should be good. the problem is the remaining part of the economy, capital spending and net exports, that remaining 20%, 30% -- 20%, 25% rather is going to look horrible. >> it's worth remembering as lackluster as the u.s. numbers may be, they're still better than japan and europe. for "nightly business report" i'm steve liesman. >> so with such lackluster predictions for growth from the fed, how can you make money on your investments? charlie bobrinskoy is vice chairman and head of the investment group at ariel investments and he joins us with his thoughts. charlie, welcome back. good to have you with us. >> hello, tyler. happy to be here. >> terrific. slow growth 2%. inflation 2% or less. interest rates relatively modestly low between now and 2018. that feels like a pretty good recipe long term for stock investing. >> well, fir

the chief u.s. economist from barclays. is the fed going to go this week? michael: we thought they were ready to go on the august 11 decision. it did rattle markets and we think it led to a tightening of financial conditions within the u.s. we use that opportunity to say that the fed won't go, partially due to the concerns you just wantoned -- do you really to be tightening rates into that? we think they will skip this meeting and not raise rates. scarlet: when you look at the economic conditions in the u.s., the bloomberg survey found that most in the u.s. leave we are not due for a recession until 2018. having said current expansion would last nine years. give us your take on the linkage between the stock market and recession. if they are steep enough, there is a wealth channel where wealth supports consumption and real estate valuation supports consumption. if you had a sharp decline in equities that led to a large drop in wealth, that could create recessionary conditions. we have in in a long expansion and its reflection of how far we fell. we think equ

the short term. comeuld expect to see gold off another $50, $100 if the fed raises rates. as we go through 2016, as inflation gathers pace, it's likely, given the modest increases that the u.sd is putting out there for rate rises, the market has only factored about two or three interest rate hikes over that period -- we think real interest rates go negative again in the u.s. in 2016. that has been traditionally quite supportive of gold. we see gold holding around a mark.th $1100 yes, we are cautious in the near term, but in the medium-term, we are a little bit more constructive. yvonne: cautious but constructive. wayne gordon, thank you for joining us this morning. >> it's time to take a look at stories making headlines around the world. he start things off in thailand. police say the two men they arrested a month ago for the ones responsible for the bangkok shrine bombing in august. a man in a yellow shirt is seen planting a backpack bomb. officers say the men have confessed and now face multiple murder charges. police say the attack is revenge for them breaking up a people's monthly operation. indonesian authorities have hai captain of a ship on suspicion of illegal fishi

the u.s. is that 2.5% -- 2.15%. you see the feds not hiking, that is a low interest rate environment at the moment. the fed to hike in december, we do think that inflation pressures will rise. if there is no financial meltdown coming up to the december decision, in other words you do not have another obvious to type off, that is the right moment for the fed to hike. it is more of a short position to bet that body double increase from here. i would look to taking the decision closer to the time for fear, if there was a financial meltdown between now and december, the fed will stay on positive -- pause again. angie: thank you. coming up next, after pulling off the biggest upset in rugby history, japan's brave blossoms have fallen back to earth. the world cup update is coming up after this short break. ♪ japan -- angie: japan has been denied another win at the world cup. in the other matches on wednesday, australia got their campaign off to a winning start against fiji. france was too good for romania. brave blossoms started the match

the u.s. dollar. ? >> if the fedto a rate hike this week, the dollar will get some relief from premature tightening concerns. the dollar is backing off a bit. that also creates somewhat easier conditions around the rest of the world. the market currencies are not capitulating the way they were. space or a bit more maneuvering room for central banks. thee: how do you factor in people's bank of china coming in, intervening, intervening in the equity markets as well. >> we are eager to see china get out of the business of propping up equities. the reason for volatility in the asian market has been because the chinese authorities have decided to clear as much leverage out of the system as they can, put more of those suspended stocks back into trading status, allowing would-be sellers to sell their stocks. that's allowing the market to get to what we can consider true clearing levels and find a real bottom, after which we can start looking for a rally. angie: you don't know when or if it will continue to see prop ups. >>

the u.s. the latest fed survey of the american economy shows manufacturing activity has been mostly positive. beige book report plays a crucial role in the fed debate over a rate rise. economy provided another positive look at the domestic picture for federal reserve policymakers. fed districts reported moderate growth. the survey which covers july through mid august showed a mixed picture for manufacturing. a strongricts reported dollar had dampened manufacturing activity. cleveland, st. louis, san francisco. home sales were increasing in every district. information gives that policy makers a new set of data before their market committee meeting where they will consider rather 2 -- to raise rates are not. positive u.s. economic numbers including second-quarter growth and job growth at a steady click. policymakers are facing global unease over china's economic health. there was little mention about the recent market turmoil, certain to factor into any decision made in just two weeks. relatively well, japan has the heaviest debt load in the world. the government may have a new tool to tackle t

the u.s. fed should wait with raising rates. that according to a world bank economist. the world bank is now weighing in on exactly what the international monetary fund said. do not raise rates until the global economy is more stable. the world bank chief economist said in an interview with financial times. i don't think the fed will create a crisis but it will cause immediate turbulence. let us bring in scott black, delphi management of the has nearly a billion in assets under management. when you hear that, scott, now you have the world bank weighing in along with imf don't raise rates, warren buffett said don't raise rates. the dow is up nearly 400 points. now another big organization is saying don't raise rates. >> i concur with that the u.s. economy is doing pretty well. real gdp growth is 3.7% and we have modest inflation. we're well below the 2% ceiling of the fact that the world economy is fragile, we don't really know ramifications what china will be for emerging markets. europe is still sluggish. france and germany are sub2% growth. it pays to err on side of ca

the u.s. rishaad: thanks for that. particular focus for the fed this month. for more let's bring in our chief asia correspondent. enda, where are we now? enda: it is probably a little bit of good news in asia, because it least it is -- won't put further downward pressure on their currencies. sure, you can argue japan would complain about a bit more softness in yen. malaysia and indonesia have to be wary of capital outflow. so, the fed not tightening takes pressure off. rishaad: these weakening commodity prices playing their part, too. enda: what is fascinating about the statement is it is one of the fed meetings were china dictated what the fed did. that is what we have been watching. rishaad: but, people have been getting upset about this, as though it was going to happen. it was not predicted to happen. december was the month. we are looking at 50% implied there. we were looking at 30% for it to happen this month. so is everybody -- why is everybody getting worked up about it? enda: it indicates that do. if you consider the strong view the fed would ignore

they also urged fed policymakers to consider the possible effects of their decision on the global economy. now, the latest retail sales out of the u.s. may be a factor in the feds' decision on the benchmark interest rate. retailers showed solid growth in august, and that's from stock prices stemming over china's economic slowdown. commerce department officials said retail sales last month totaled nearly $448 billion. that's up 2% since july. americans spent more on autos and super parts. they were afraid it could dampen purchasing, but it has had little effect so far. but market players are cautious. they want to see u.s. consumer price data, which comes out later on wednesday, as well as global economic trends. they say the fed policymakers may have a difficult time making their key decision during this week's meeting. >>> following the retail data in the u.s., u.s. stock prices closed up more than 1% with the dow, closing at 16,599. for more we go to our business reporter who is standing by for us at the tokyo stock exchange. good morning. yesterday the bank of japan kept its current measures in place, and that of course affected

the ndp can do to transition our economy beyond the buffeting wins with oil prices, china and the u.s. fedanctity will not raise rates again? >> i think it's possible to build a candidate that is more generous and more prosperous. mr. harper tentatively that everybody is on their own. i think we're all in this together and we should try to work hard with everybody out. i do come from a very large family and sometimes were tough but i see what is when people work together. tthey try to give each other tht helping hand. i also know it's high time that around the world people start looking at us different the i want our democratic institutions respected adult and her international reputation respected abroad. i would to make sure that every young person gets the opportunities that they need and, frankly, that our seniors get the help that they deserve. that's why we. that's why we have proposed raise the guaranteed income supplement to raise several hundred thousand of our ports seniors out of poverty. >> what you say that the liberals will apply for deficit and there will be schlick which? >

the time. so many things to talk to you about but i want to kick things off with the fed. you have a huge u.sreport in u.s. dollars. does it matter to you when the fed makes it's first rate hike? whether it's october, december, or next year? >> no it doesn't really matter to our business. the more interesting thing is that this is the first time that an event in china has lead to global dislocation of financial markets. that is a big marker that says that china has arrived and it is going to have a big impact on global markets but for our business personally, whether they raise it now or later it's not going to make a huge impact on our business. >> you make an important point about china leading the fed to hold off on hiking rates yesterday. 26% of your revenues come from the emerging markets. china as a determinant for many of these. how worry redirect examination you about the slow down that we're seeing there and are you considering pulling back from some of these regions just because the growth there doesn't stand up to your expectations? >> we've seen a bit of a slow down in emerging ma

the u.s. to year, the highest level since 2011. the white line is the yield on the u.s. sex which we do not talk about a lot. about and will the fed raise rates at what happens if fed rate hikes. thees are rising at short end. it is kind of already here. be market seems to be digesting it. alix: perfect lead-in to our superstar guest. there are two days to go until the crucial rate decision. she should make her move this month, saying it is fully appropriate for the fed to normalize policy. it is no longer appropriate for the fed to be so far away from neutral. jan hatzius is the chief economist at goldman sachs. you have been saying september since june, others have joined your camp. what you you see that so many others do not? an: it is looking at what the committee seems to be communicating at how things are developing relative to that. we switched our call to september from december right after the meeting in june because it seems like the message sent by chair yellen was more of a december baseline message it and then the question was really, did things after that come in stronger than what she expected at that time? the answ

the fed. in the end, no change to interest rates. now fed chair janet yellen said she is impressed with the u.s. ket and moderate growth in the economy. there are concerns with china. the fed wants to raise rates before the end of the year. those are the signals from the fed. there are two meetings left. october and december. wall street could not decide whether to love or wait this fed decision. stocks zig zagged with big gains and losses. you can expect more volatility as investors play a guessing game on what happens with the fed. one concern is inflation is low in the united states. you think that is a good thing. >> we need inflation. you want to see it in the price of your home. >> if you have wages falling and prices falling. consumers putting off purchases. it happened in japan. >> that's what is looming. >>> thousands of refugees and migrants stranded. more european countries shutting borders as the crisis unfolds. we are live. need to hire fast? go to ziprecruiter.com and post your job to over one hundred of the web's leading job boards with a single click. then simply select the best c

the u.s. economy is improving but we have investors and traders holding on the sidelines, holding their breath as to what the fed is going to do. now taking a look at the trading range, 120 point swing for u.s. market which is is the narrowest we've seen since august 18th. usually we've been trading at a 400 point trading range and there is no volume out there. no one is trading. we're looking at the lowest in a month's time. what's the probability of a hike in interest rates? right now rates futures are telling us there's a 28% probabili probability. we might not get a rate hike this year. we have been speaking to the chief economic advisor and he's talking about the volatility we're seeing ahead of the fed decision. >> we're in the midst of a change in the volatility par paradyme. it's too close to call and the big question is not whether they're going to hike or not. the big question is why are we so obsessing with a single hike? that says a lot about how co-dependent markets and central banks have become. >> too close to call. we do have black rock saying it could be a 40% probability this week and maybe 15%

the chief u.s. economist from barclays. >> thank you for having me. joe: is the fed going to go this week?ichael: we thought they were ready to go on the august 11 decision by the pboc. it did rattle markets and we think it led to a tightening of financial conditions within the u.s. we use that opportunity to say that we do not think the fed will go, partially related to the concerns you just mentioned. is there downside risk to china? downside risk to global growth? you do not want to be tightening rates into that, so we think they will skip this meeting and not raise rates. scarlet: when you look at the economic conditions in the u.s., the bloomberg survey found that economists on average believe we are ok, that we are not due for a recession until 2018, and that would mean the current expansion would last 19 years. give us your take between the start market and others? can they create exceptions? michael: yes, and there is real estate valuations that support consumption, so, yes, a sharp glide equities, it could create recessionary conditions, and you are right. we have been in a very l

the spread is what is going to drive that. if there is not much spread, you get much less effective monetary policy. jonathan: it is fed decision day. policymakers will way the u.sk. economists are split on whether the fed will and seven years of near zero interest rates. the bank of england also considering a rate hike in the near future. governor mark carney says there's a chance interest rates may need to increase from a record low and 2016. -- record low in 2016. a decision will come into sharper view at the end of the year. jonathan: at least three people died in the 8.3 magnitude earthquake that hit north chile. waves triggered by the quake washed ashore. the president says the government is assessing damage and wants of the potential for strong aftershocks. the second republican debate shifted from policy to personal. the more politically experienced candidates try to gain advantage against mr. donald trump. >> i think there is a sophomore quality that is entertaining about donald trump. i'm concerned about having him in charge of a nuclear weapon, to attacks response people on their parents, short, tall, fat, ugly, my goodness, that happened in junior hi

the u.s. yesterday ahead of the fed meeting but also off the back of strong consumer data. let's look at forex rates as well. the story of the last month has been the u.s. dollar pricing in no hike in rates against the likes of the euro and the yen and things not too volatile today only sterling moving off the back of the data. ending the session up nearly 5%. the companies said three executives were under investigation for suspected insider trading. let's check in on markets in asia more broadly. sri is in singapore. >> first of all, it's a big black eye that insider trading probe for china's biggest brokerage and let's not forget as well it's really very much been in the front line of beijing's effort to try to stabilize the market. they have been doing service by buying stocks to insider trading probe hurt the share price. it did stabilize and it doesn't seem to have blunted the resolve of beijing to try to intervene in the market. to stabilize the market and emotions b there was the late session surge we saw on the shanghai composite. a lot of people are saying that beij

the last report of the fed. jobs to be added to u.s. payrolls. european stocks traded lower ahead. finance ministers and central bankers see disruption from the fed liftoff and a slowdown in china. we're live in ankara. welcome to "the pulse" live from bloomberg's headquarters in london. i'm manus cranny. we have a great lineup for you throughout the next two hours. this hour we will speak to the former italian prime minister mary monty. -- mario monti. draghi downgraded the forecast, we speak to the former ecb president jean-claude trischet. then we have russia's deputy prime minister who will join us at 10:00 a.m. for todaysharpen because it is jobs report in the united states. it is especially crucial because it is the last one before the fed's september meeting where they may hike rates. let's see how the markets are trading with caroline hyde. caroline: nervousness, risk-ave will, call it what you we are down when it comes to equities in europe. three things unnerving investors. the first, it is jobs day. will it be a bearish sentiment. ,he number is more than 217,000 does that

in the short term, it's about fed and monetary policy, about china and their struggles with finding a bottom in their financial markets. in the longer term, it becomes more about the u.s. >> what number would make it certain the fed raises rates? >> i think that is a fool's errand. i don't know what the right number is. i don't think the market knows the right number. i do know the fed usually raises rates if you go back to the last time they raised rates in 2006, in the face of growth. in the face of inflation. we have global gdp numbers coming in, not moving higher. we have no sign of inflation at this point. to me, it's just a recipe for disaster. that's why ultimately you start to see earnings come in and the fed pushes us into recession. >> that is a huge thing to say. >> i felt i should say something huge. do you want me to say something small? >> no. >> we have a problem with seasonal adjustment this time of year. >> if it's softer, they get breathing room there. if you think about it, why wouldn't the fed have already moved? why do you think they are pigeon-holed right now? they understand they can't raise rates. everyone wants them to raise rates. it's more c

the u.s. economy. fedicymakers will get a look at industrial production for august expected to pose a small decline. for what the fed is going to do, no one knows. the outcome is too close to call because china is continuing weakening economy and uncertainty about inflation in the u.s. have seen so many policymakers and analysts, totally different pools of thought. i'm excited for thursday afternoon. nicole: the warning came the countries have been raised in and they have to go pull back and that is one of the things the fed has to consider as well. breaking news this morning. a man accused of killing his girlfriend at a university professor in mississippi is now dead. 45 wrote shannon lamb jumped out of his car, took often fatally shot himself last night. it is not clear at this point why he allegedly killed the woman he was living with. the history professor at delta state university. >> right now we have no motive and will not speculate until we have facts in hand. nicole: authorities say before shootin

way-pacific stocks on the down with crude futures moving to the outsiders, investors awaiting the fed decision. >> asian markets follow the u.s. ahead of the fed decision. we have seen positive momentum in the region this morning, although the shanghai market once again doing its own thing, down by a half of 1% despite a positive start. that is adding to what we have seen in china. yesterday, the shanghai composite down by three point 5%. hong kong has come up a little bit from earlier gains. , big pickup in pradesh shares its first-half net profit, good , up by one and a half percent. in australia, all sectors moving higher with petroleum surging. this after the bid was rejected by the oil search board. s&p eas x 200 up 1.3 percent. the topics bracing a losing streak, up by 1%. south korea looking pretty strong. malaysia is closed today for a public holiday. gains coming through from emerging-market currencies, particularly the malaysian ringgit. it was under a lot of pressure by around 2/10 of 1%, it rose against the greenback. up by another half of 1%. look at the quick australian dollar. it has been at a two and a half we

the u.s. economy is in pretty good shape. i think we're more confident about the u.s. economy than the fed. lt, we are investing in leveraged loans. but no duration. these are floating rate securities. also in the u.s., we are securities. visa they represent very good value when you compare them with high yield or any other kind of investment in the u.s. are too.s., equities psychologically and sentiment-driven. despite a strong economy, we tend to evil equities -- to avoid equities. rishaad: what about equities away from the u.s. as well? if we look at europe, some valuations are very attractive. >> indeed. we like european equities. the financial sector will do particularly well. but again, equities are very psychologically and sentiment-driven as a class because they are precisely of that large retail participation. if there is a way we can replicate equity exposure, but participate in a more institutionally driven market, we will try to do that. in europe, that market is a high-yield bond market. risk, we can buy corporate as well as duration. we are happy with the base curbs in the peri

the last report of the fed. jobs to be added to u.s. payrolls. european stocks traded lower ahead. nisters and central bankers see disruption from the fed liftoff and a slowdown in china. we're live in ankara. welcome to "the pulse" live from bloomberg's