on my left, thomas donnelly runs the defense studies program at aei, the author of multiple books, oneof the countries leading experts on defense policy, defense budgeting. finally in lot -- not least, richard fontaine. to anotherg us level, one of the most important think tanks in the country, a former advisor to senator mccain. we are going to start with ambassador ross and then robert kaplan and then anne-marie shorter. >> i have been given a 15 minute to talk about the challenges in the middle east, so i have little to talk about. [laughter] i thought i would do it in an unconventional way. i am doing a new book right now that looks at our foreign-policy in the middle east from the truman through the obama administration. if i were to say that there was a message from the saudi's on a -- and a number of arab leaders to the administration that said we have doubts whether you will stand by us, we are under great threat, the region is going the wrong we feel vulnerable and we do not see what the u.s. is doing about it, people here may say that is not surprising. but if i were to say t