tim courtney, why are you saying be wary of commodities? energy sector was up, soft commodities, grains were higher today, it looks pretty good? >> i think a commodity basket or even individual commodities, when you have such low inflation around the 2:00% annualized rate, historically commodities have actually lost, lost ground. they have negative real returns. so with a lot of the growth stories around the globe, europe potentially slipping back into recession, emerging markets like china, their growth is slowing, commodities i think are a pretty risky play considering how volatile they normally are and limited upside they have with a low growth scenario. david: dan, you were you are hot on three hot oil energy stocks. why are you hot on oil even though we have a strong dollar, even though we have lower demand from china and europe? of course we have very little inflation. doesn't look good for oil as a commodity. why are you hot on these oil stocks? >> well, dave, i'm hot on the oil stocks today because they have been beaten up so recent