think about how tjx works. if you've been there.needs to have cheap merchandise that it bought at typically behind the scenes from a big retailer who is desperate for cash or an apparel company that is desperate for cash. remember, it's a closeout chain. it also benefited from its, well, let's call it the prap competitor for its home goods business, linens and things, gone. by the way, that also helped bed, bath and beyond. both of these two growth engines are going away in the second half of the year. so, we're not going to have easy comparisons. you see, right now, other retailers are doing so well. don't look at the papers. they're dead wrong on this. with so little inventory and so much cash that they have no reason to fire sale their goods to tjx. when everyone else has lean inventories like they do now, there's nothing to dump it tjx's way. now, i think this is the reason that the conference call was so darn grim. it was the worst of any retail conference call barring lowe's and family dollar. despite the misinformation piece

i think that's where tjx is down. so what makes big lots different than tjx? why am i less worried about it having a sourcing problem the second half of the year? mainly it's because big lots was much more confident about the second half on its conference call that tjx has been. management sees major improvements in earnings and same-store sales. from the third quarter to the fourth quarter. while tjx had a much more negative outlook. the other difference tjx sells mo mostly apparel, while big lots has a much more diversified mix. on its conference call, big lots mentioned recently landing big new closeout deals as a reason they're positive about the second half. so they're clearly not in the same boat as tjx. how about the key metrics for big lots, same store sales, margins, we're comparing all of those. but management was more optimistic in the second half of the year, predicting same-store sales down to 2% to flat in the third quarter and slightly positive in the fourth quarter. that's the one we care about, but it is up against something easy to compare, t

that's different from tjx. they raised four-year guidance for very different -- very, very different from the dismal picture that i thought tjx management had on its conference call. i like that ross is also significantly smaller than tjx. they only had 990 stores. txz has 2,609 and they've got them everywhere. that means that ross has more room to expand. management thinks they can get to 1,500 stores. hey, you know what, that's going to produce growth for a long time. hey, and we know ross, ross dress for less, it has a fashion bent. katy couric stops there. or at least she did when she was at nbc. but at the end of the day, ross seems to have the same sourcing problem that tjx does. the company is not in control of its own destiny because its selection of products and its margins depend on the excess inventory of other retailers like these guys. and a recovery where full-price retailers are moving a lot of inventory means the business model will get squeezed. there's also the fact that as the economy improve

tjx was caution. they weren't bullish. how are you supposed to make this much money on this counterintel. how are you supposed to profit when the stories you read are biassed and incorrect. you would think there's a fifth column. here's the bottom line. you have to be skeptical when it comes to the press. and i'll show you how every night. because i'm not about planting the news to make you scared, paralyzed, or worst of all, a seller when you should be a buyer or vice versa. i'm here to interpret the news correctly to help you try to make money. they don't even report. so let me teach you how to decide. >>> let's go to steve in pennsylvania. steve? >> caller: boo-yah from huntington valley. >> that's my steve! you know what it is? it's fourth time long time for steve. thank you -- thank you for coming in. >> caller: grab your staff for me, jim. >> no problem. just a second. jimmy rollins, 1 for 5 last night. but let me tell you, shame -- speaking about shame like that island -- oh the movie like the gun fighter. i'm talki

i include urban and tjx, but you know how i feel about tjx going forward. congratulations mr. bernanke. on your reappointment. congratulations consumer to feeling the good idea to buy a home. congratulations investors. what the hell. >>> coming up, one upgrade and one downgrade, how do you sort it all out? turn to cramer as he decides whether one stock has run out of steam or just starting to heat up. >>> plus it's a competition of warehouse proportions, a week-long competition continues as cramer pits two stocks against each other to find out if either one has what it takes to be crowned discount king. >>> and later, cramer puts the charts against the fundamentals on an all new "off the charts." all coming up on "mad money." (announcer) we understand. you need to save money. announcer: you could buy 750 bottles of water or just one brita faucet filter. ( drop plinks ) >>> today the mammoth brazilian metal and mining company got hit with two dueling pieces of research. hsbc downgraded the stock from neutral to underweight, wall street gibberish from hold to sell, and morgan st

i include urban and tjx, but you know how i feel about tjx going forward. congratulations mr. bernanke. congratulations consumer to feeling the good idea to buy a home. congratulations investors. what the hell. >>> coming up, one upgrade and one downgrade, how do you sort it all out? turn to cramer as he decide one stock has run out of steam or just start to go heat up. >>> plus it's a competition of warehouse proportions, a week-long competition continues as cramer pits two stocks against each other to find out if either one has what it takes to be crowned discount king. >>> and later, cramer puts the charts against the fundamentals on an all new "off the charts." all coming up on "mad money." i'm racing cross country in this small sidecar, but i've still got room for the internet. with my new netbook from at&t. with its built-in 3g network, it's fast and small, so it goes places other laptops can't. i'm bill kurtis, and wherever i go, i've got plenty of room for the internet. and the nation's fastest 3g network. gun it, mick. (announcer) sign up today and get a netbook for $

he's already in jail, awting trial relateto a security each at tjx stores, that snagged million credit card numbers. >> paul: sears and k-mart wa customers to sta saving for holiy presents, now. today, parent sears holdings dusted off the conpt of a christmaclub account. it lets shoprs store funds on a ses or kmart holiday card to be used for chrimas spending. consumers have uil october 31st to start saving and quafy for a matchi 3% reward of up $100. last year, theetail siblings resurrected their lay-away progms to help consumers manage holiday speing without rackg up credit card debt. >> jeff: many consumers who ve racked up thatebt are having a rd time paying it off. capital one says its0 day crit card delinquencies rose last month adid its loan char-offs. that's the accounts it bieves will neveray up. capital one cate to borrowers wi lower credit histories. sot's not too surprising that its rivals saw aomewhat better piure. credit card charge-o rates fe slightly at citigroup, american eress and discover financial services. bankf america, which has the highest default and linquency

abercrombie, lowe's, home depot, tjx next week as well. what are you expecting from them? are you expecting them to raise guidance? are you expecting them to be cautious? what do you think we're going to hear? >> what we're seeing from our capital iq estimates on the numbers three months ago, edge of november was higher. this week gains by macy's. today was walmart. expectations are cautious guidance. that's going to be really dependent upon looking forward. >> certainly the idea of presenting the market with cautious guidance allows the retailers themselves to be by definition cautious. getting too far out of this which no one wants to do is -- >> that's been the consensus on the street all day. nordstrom -- they're going to be very cautious in the second half. and there will be some selling on the open -- yesterday because the stock's gone up 30%. that makes sense. why would you dramatically stick your neck out when the stock's had a big run-up? i'd be cautious too. >> you want to keep an eye on the margin compression because what we've seen obviously for months is in or

he's already in jail, awaiting trial related to a security breach at tjx stores, that snagged 40 million credit card numbers. >> paul: sears and k-mart want customers to start saving for holiday presents, now. today, parent sears holdings dusted off the concept of a christmas club account. it lets shoppers store funds on a sears or kmart holiday card to be used for christmas spending. consumers have until october 31st to start saving and qualify for a matching 3% reward of up to $100. last year, the retail siblings resurrected their lay-away programs to help consumers manage holiday spending without racking up credit card debt. >> jeff: many consumers who have racked up that debt are having a hard time paying it off. capital one says its 30 day credit card delinquencies rose last month as did its loan charge-offs. that's the accounts it believes will never pay up. capital one caters to borrowers with lower credit histories. so it's not too surprising that its rivals saw a somewhat better picture. credit card charge-off rates fell slightly at citigroup, american express and discover finan

watch for retailers target, saks fifth avenue, tjx, parent of tj max and marshall's.the big tech bellwether hewlett packard. that's your global stock watch. >>> coming up next on "worldwide exchange," are global equities on the brink of another leg down? we'll have analysis after the break. >>> it's a little more than half past the hour. here are the top business stories from around the world. in the u.s., investors look for evidence that the housing sector is at a turning point. >> i'm becky meehan. in europe, investors are shrugging off yesterday's slump. >> here in asia, china everbright shares are in focus. the debut in shanghai, is it a sign of investor cooling in demand? >> hello and welcome to "worldwide exchange." if you're just joining us in the u.s., the futures are pointing to a bit of a bounceback. up about 65 points above fair value. as far as the dow, the s&p futures right now are just about 5 points above fair value. we're going to hear from home depot ahead of the open. not likely to be such a great mover. also, we are going to get data on housing star

ross climbing 4% and tjx which owns tj max and marshalls rose 4%. and it may mean even though stores have already cut inventory, they may be forced to cut prices going into the fall shopping season. as investors looked at properties for retailers, a drop as well for the bloomberg maryland index the consulting among the shares weighing on your index. and if you use the cash for clunkers program you may not find the color or amenities you want or a car at all. the clunkers' plan has depleted inventory especially at chrysler and show rooms, automakers need four to six weeks after consumers grabbed just about everything they had on the lots. at the new york stock exchange i'm michele reporting for wbal-tv 11 news. >> thank you, michelle. they say everything is bigger in texas and that's especially true when it comes to the cost of eating at the new deloibs stadium. dallas cowboys stadium. stadium officials are charging customers, $60 for a large pizza. if you and your friends want to wash it down or keep yourself from choking on those prices with a beer

department store chain sacks delivering a smaller than expected loss thanks to expense controls and tjx one of the few to see both profits and sales tick higher. the ceo says traffic greatly increasing but the average spend on a per customer basis is still a bit down. the key is discipline. these retailers are proving they've learn it had from previous mistakes. the question going forward is, will sales growth snap back before there's no cost left to cut. that will be a big one. >> that's a really important point. thanks so much. rebecca jarvis. joining us now, rich peterson is with us. along with greg olsen, gentlemen, always nice to have you on the program. how are you investing in this environment? >> we think the market may have gotten a little bit ahead of the economy and we wouldn't be surprised if we see a couple more% and on the pullback. as we see these, we're looking for opportunities to put more money to work because we think the long-term trend is going to be up. >> yesterday we had this decline which started in china, goes to europe and then in the united states. here we ar

. >> kleinfelter says the off-price retailers like ross and tjx will also continue gaining share. can they drive profit growth as those sales materialize? brian tunic thinks they will. >> t.j. and ross are at or near all-time highs here. they're a good place for investors to hide. they've been hiding there for the last couple of quarters now. i think the good news is we will see more upward earnings revisions. >> still, tunick says the easy money has been made with the retail stocks up more than 50% from the march lows, as you see there on your screen. they've outperformed the overall markets by about 10%. he says to drive profit growth going forward there's still some cost cutting that can be done. inventories are the major theme there. they're running down about 10% to 20% versus last year. melissa. >> great report, rebecca jarvis. thanks so much. for more on back to school season i am joined by senior vice president at bree & murray carrot & company. and also james rousseau vice president of global consumer insight at the nielsen company. thank you to both of you for joining us

but tjx companies, parents of the off-priced marshall's and tj maxx stores among the few bright spotstail area during the recession. is the worst of the recession over? we should get a better picture of how the economy's doing when the latest jobless claims numbers are released later this week. joining me live in the studio, reporter an anchor with forbes.com. is the worst of the recession over? >> the worst of the recession is over. when we look back at the first quarter of 2009, that is going to be considered the worst part of the recession. so we're out of that. don't expect a strong raefr even if we see the gdp crack into positive territory, that's only a small part of the economy. it is not the real economy. even looking at our last jobs report, jobs were a lot better than expected with around 250,000 job losses and unemployment ticked lower just slightly. that's good but that's still 250,000 job losses. until that number starts to recover we won't have a strong recovery. >> can you look at that again looking for silver lining anywhere you can, with jobless numbers not plummeting

however, there's tjx companies, parents are the off-priced marshall's and tj maxx stores are among the bright spots in the retail recession. >>> is the worst of the recession overall over? we should get a better picture of how the economy's doing with the latest jobless claims numbers are released later this week. joining me live here in studio, reporter an anchor with forbes.com. good morning to you. can we say good? do you think the worst of the recession is over? >> i don't know if we can say good yet but at least the worst of the recession is over. it is not time to celebrate. we're still losing jobs quite significantly. unemployment is at 9.5%. i mean that is still pretty severe. that's not a time when you'll see a v-shaped recovery of any sort any time soon. the consumer is under pressure and as long as the consumer is not spending, demand is weak and companies won't spend any money hiring any time soon. all other signs of the economy is rooe we are proving it will be a sluggish recovery but nonetheless a recovery. >> what about housing? we look at the housing starts. we shall ge

for more about this week's ups and downs out of the retail sector, home depot, target, tjx, all beatingestimates that sears, sax and lowe's all falling short, we want to go to our guests to ask this question here. what does it all mean for the retail recovery, and high-he said versus low end? we asked jan nicen, retail analyst. great to see you, jan. thanks for coming on the program. >> thanks to you. >> so make sense of this. why are we seeing some positive results from some of these guys, and yet such dismal results from others? >> well, the low end certainly is the place to be in this current environment, and probably will be for a while. we used to say nobody ever made money at the upper end and nobody ever will. for five years that, wasn't true. but that was probably the aberration. the 40 years before that where the upper end was tough was probably more normal. >> do you consider sears then more normal middle of the road, and that's just a problem area? or -- becausis not like your high, high-end consumer is out shopping at sears. >> no, it's been a market share to walmart, and jc

tjx companies part of marshall's and tj max stores among the bright stops during this recession.he recession over? a special issue of "business week" is asking that question. joining me michelman dell, chief economist with "business week." good morning to you. >> good morning. >> the latest cover says "the kaeft for optimism: is the worst over." >> since it's hurricane season, let me use a storm analogy. before we were stuck in the middle of a category five hurricane, the worst in 70 years. now it's a rainstorm. it's muddy, it's nasty, but we can start seeing signs of blew out there. the storm seems to have passed us. the policy measures that the government took seem to have worked. >> i'm one of these people who always love to look for the silver lining. that's me. you're saying it's smart to be optimistic right now. >> absolutely. what happened during the boom is everybody was too optimistic. then the nasty stuff came. and everybody got too pessimistic. everybody has their head down looking for the next hole. we or not predicting everything is going to be hundred ki dorie tomor

tjx, which is t.j. maxx, hitting a 52-week high. i'm melissa francis in for erin burnett. i'll see you here tomorrow as well. up next is "the closing bell" with maria bartiromo. >> announcer: this is cnbc.com "news now." >>> the treasury -- sold $28 billion in seven-year notes. >>> a&e networks is buying lifetime entertainment for an undisclosed amount. the deal gives nbc universal a partner with disney and hearse in a&e, a stake in lifetime which is jointly owned by its two partners. >>> sanford financial cfo james davis has pleaded guilty to three felony counts for his role in the firm's alleged ponzi scheme. that's cnbc.com "news now." first in business worldwide. i'm julia boorstin. >>> and there's a live picture of the floor of the new york stock exchange, entering the final stretch on a thursday on wall street. the market picking up some steam here as we approach the final stretch. up in the double digits. reversing an earlier sell-off. hi, everybody, welcome to "the closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo on the floor of the new york stock exchange. it's a light summer d

for instance, the tjx credit card theft case, we talked a lot about that last year, that was a mere 40n accounts. that's one of his -- one of his scams, and he faces a lot of time for that one and another 20 years if he's convicted in this one, kyra. >> so, susan, do we know any details on what he actually did with the accounts? were they sold and then used? >> well, certainly the intent was to make a lot of money on it, and prosecutors say the goal was to sell the data. but the thing about these kind of scams, identity theft, is that you really don't know the reach until you start hearing from the consumer -- consumers themselves. your account may be compromised. the number may have stolen. it's when you start utilizing that. we don't know just yet. we do know, prosecutors say, that they targeted 7-eleven, haniford brothers, which is a regional grocery chain based in the northeast, and perhaps, most importantly, heartland payment systems, which is a huge credit and debit card processor. so, i guess the one big caveat here is for everyone, to continue to check your bills and -- and mak

>> that is still important, and as a result, you're seeing the off-mall value retailers gain share, tjx and gold are seeing traffic improvement and share in gains. so the consumer cares a lot about value, but the fact is, there is less inventory out there, they'll have to promote less. but i still think you are seeing this morning they are shifting price points, to more accessible price points, less of the higher end, more aspiration al price trends. so i think the consumer is looking for good and better as opposed to best. >> on the earnings season side, doesn't seem to be a revenue earnings season. so i'm wondering with regard to the retailers, how much do these results -- the better than expected results today even cost cutting as opposed to real revenue and are there any stand out stocks where we are seeing real demand and real revenue growth? >> you're right. i think it's safe to say that for the most part, it has been driven by inventory and cost containment. the exceptions are the kohls, where the old fashioned fees driven by top line coming in better, and you're seeing that flow

but in addition to home depot, we are expecting results from target, saks and tjx. after the bell we're going to hear -- that is no slouch there, hewlett packard coming after the bell. did you see that article yesterday about senator boxer in a little bit of a tiff because of who is going to possibly run against her? carly. who has some scratch of her own if she senated e ed needed to spend -- it could be the toughest fight that she's had to face. although most of the winds are at her back. >> so you could have the ex governor and -- >> sort of a nasdaq. i don't know if either one will really -- they're both republicans. we'll see what we're ready to do in to 10. she was a big mccain type. >> today, though, in the journal talking about the mid year -- yes, and riding the tea leaves. >> it's much more difficult to see this time around. >> 52 guys in the house. >> and every president, except for 43. >> but you guys have 79 right now. >> i think republicans need -- 41. >> but once congress passes the public option and obama has a huge health care victory, then there wi