maria: as tjx.at's across retail. mike baker jump in here. >> i'm curious, the significant numbers that target's reporting on loss from theft and crime, are you seeing that across the board in he retail? >> yes. it's a problem across the board for anybody who is in the cities. maria: that's unbelievable. >> the headlines. tjx numbers, though, are quite -- if you think about it, everybody else guided really down big, tapestry said business went negative in north america. target guided down q2 big versus consensus. all love a back half a story. maria: what is the breaking news on tjx. >> they're talking about the current quarter, they're saying for q1 which they're reporting that comp sales were up 3%. that was the high end of the range for q1. again, this points back to what we've been talking about the consumer is trading down. the nordstrom consumer and the whole foods consumer is going to walmart for gosslys and people that were -- groceries and people that were shopping at target are you now goin

is that goin tjx >> they're up 40%. it's not as if they're not performing already haven't performed this year year to date. i think walmart, if i was forced to choose, walmart over tjx, but -- >> nobody forced you by the way. >> i forced myself i have a strange personality defect if you look at tjx and ross stores, they were the early winners coming out of the pandemic because everyone who couldn't get goods wound up overordering. what do you do with overordering it sits. doesn't sell you take it, sell it to other stores they benefit from that that phase is over with. the ross stores and tjx are out of the sun you're going to do bet we are walmart, and they have grocery as well. >> grocery helpful in driving sales but walmart did point out last time those are lower margin sales. they're still profitable, but if they don't send more of the general merchandise it does pressure the margin. guy, about other names home depot reporting always a good read there with what's going on in the homeowner. we also know the spring wea

when i meet you in person whether it be at tjx or target on wall street one of my wife's mezcal bottle signings the parents love to talk about the stocks we own for the charitable trust. invariably it's nvidia and apple, they come up first. so do amazon, eli lilly, even caterpillar, salesforce. the kids want more they want their own set of companies. not their parents' fuddy-duddy ones stocks that are newer and admittedly more risky. i don't shy away from that because i know younger people have their whole lives ahead to make back any near-term losses normally we don't spend a lot of time focusing on these higher risk names here on "mad money" but tonight i'm breaking form. i'm going to give you the father-daughter, mother-son list you prayed for the stocks that might turn out to be huge eventually. assuming they turn out to be anything at all. almost all of them are young what we used to call junior growth names so they won't be the netflixes or the teslas or the metas the ones i'm talking about tonight are higher risk and potentially much, much higher reward at least from these level

tjx, we are getting it from target, we will hear from walmart tomorrow. it is common in the united states to talk about leave the gun, take the cannoli. take the desert. it feels like it is happening. alix: like you are ditching all of the stuff, buying all of the things you have to eat. food and drink. it led us to the question, it took a while for him to get but he got there. guy: it is a process. the question of the day, it refers to people dropping discretionary and going to the staples. leave the tv, take the tv dinner. you can change it for a cannoli if you are a godfather fan. the ceo and -- price target of 95. this has been the story for a while. people have been swapping one for the other. discretionary for travel. a lot of mix. but how should we think about this trend and is it the trend of the is that the right way to think about it and invest? >> bet is what we are seeing, discretionary facing headwind. but with tjx, you saw apparel and accessories very strong with a better device margin. that shows a value inconvenience. you are thinking abou

tjx is fractionally lower.orts tomorrow this is a lot of extra, you know, focus i guess we should say on the consumer. we get all these reports, credit card spending didn't go down, delinquencies are creeping up. >> it is tricky to discern some of that. we're seeing some strong spending in discretionary categories but like target, said no, we're not. it's been very soft for us one thing we have seen through some of these big guys, home has been really soft across the category tjx owns home goods and those were down 7% so that could be lower discretionary spending so that's one theme that we can pull out i think that retailers are expressing caution because that's what consumers are expressing i think that tjx with strong results play suppose that narrative. that is largely known as sort of where you go treasure hunting and bigging through the racks for those good discounts yes, target is also known as sort of a value player, but sometimes you see a divergence in the performance of a target versus a tjx in momen

because we own home depot, ross stores, tjx. all of, that we have significant exposure going into earnings, and i'm hoping it comes out all right. home depot as well if i didn't mention it it does make a lot of sense, and how he is playing it make sense. he's not really trying to that i can this out of the money approach we have upcoming catalysts we know what they are, when they are. it's all coming up next week that short delta strategy helps you put the pause button on if you have any or many of the stocks that are reporting, and so this is an inexpensive way. you can see what he's laying out, exposure to june. if the market broadly softens this gives you insurance out to that >> carter, what do you make on the retail space right now >> if we look at the retail consumer discretionary sector, the top three with 50% weight, so the xrt is the better way to capture the theme of retail. that's an equal weighted etf almost 0 names, 2.4 trillion it's sitting at 52-week low, not confirming the strength in the market since the low let

jonathan: we got the results from tjx. let's look at them.ies thank you. tjx first quarter performance sales come in at 3% positive. estimated 3.1%. and a full year outlook for sales and eps as well. let's do sales first they are at 2% positive-3% positive and that as a -- estimate was re-.1% positive. and then they had a range -- details on margins as well. lisa: the actual sales on comparable store basis are going down. they are able to pass along the price increases and somewhat the profit margins that are expanding and with input prices that are coming down in certain areas, they can capture the difference. basically companies keep in prayer -- improving prices based on their base cost. that is why they can support the earnings-per-share even if the sales volume falls more. jonathan: initial reaction of the sales when the premarket we are down 1.9%. tom: they are all the same. no they are not. the net market -- net margin and the shrink are different than pre-pandemic. we make jokes about it but this is a profit machine for decades. doubl

consumer sentiment weigh on retail results we'll get you ready for results from home depot, target, tjx >>> short-sellers are targeting the c3.ai. we'll talk about it when we come back but stephanie got inspire, an implanted device that works inside the body. there's no reason to keep struggling. inspire. learn more and view important safety information at inspiresleep.com. lily! welcome to our third bark-ery. oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network. that sounds just paw-fect. terrier-iffic i labra-dore you round of a-paws at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure for your business. >>> it is a big week for retail. we're getting first quarter results from home depot, walmart, tjx and foot locker and april retail sales are expected to post their first increase in two months our next guest notes sales have been negative year over yea

can you glean or get a message from tjx and tj maxx about the rest of them?ankly the one thing we had was consistent between target and tj x, increased traffic. consumers are coming back to stores and looking for value. you certainly heard what target said about discretionary items which were a little bit weaker, and when you think about tj, what worked for them? it was a apparel and accessories and value prices that were very strong and drove the mid san diego comp. the other thing you can glean is inventories are lower, so all of these companies, they are definitely leading with lower inventories. the second quarter guide, yes. we are seeing consumers overall being much more cautious, particularly at the low to middle tier, but frankly, you're even seeing it at the higher end also, so as we go through the back half of the year, i think that almost the tjx setup , given that they beat the earnings, the guidance they essentially maintained and the up-tick essentially came from the fact that they beat q 1 , so i'm cautious on the second half of the year, but w

eastern to give us an update on these talks, stay with us for that, big retail earnings on deck target in tjxwill forgive the numbers as soon as they cross the tape checkup market reaction as well restating by for housing data in the april housing starts and building permit 8:30 a.m. eastern will see if that impacts markets as well, check the european market in the meantime we have a mixed story in the eurozone, the s&p 100 is up two points can con down six points but higher by 56, a mixed story overnight in asia the hong kong down better than 2% with the index and 2.09% the others fractionally moving, joining the conversation all morning long cheryl casone he restoring american editor for the washington examiner and portman square group ceo and former cia officer mike baker right here, "mornings with maria" is live right now ♪ ♪ >> house speaker kevin mccarthy and president biden speaking out after meeting on the debt ceiling yesterday, both sides are far from reaching the deal but some progress has been made. watch. >> the structure of how we negotiate has improved now engage a better oppor

morning, walmart, reporting a beat for q1, sharp contrast from the likes of home depot, target and tjx. with more radio results on the horizon next week, let's check in on the state of the consumer with dana telsey does it just reflect the fact that walmart is 60% groceries and that's what consumers are spending on now? >> it's that and the fact of the trade down you look at what consumers are spending on. you look at the value they're offering you look at the convenience of their locations, what they've done with digital. it all wrapped up nicely leading to better than expected guidance. >> can we look at the results over the past few days and really glean anything about the health of the consumer even home depot, i pointed out earlier, the consumer is in good shape, they're just not spending as much on their home because we have this big pandemic shift happening. >> look at what some companies have said. improved traffic consumers are going back to the physical store that's a good thing. you look at what they talked about, they're definitely more discerning in their choices. you look

we have home depot, target, tjx and walmart reporting earnings this week.nly give us a window into the macro story as well. we're looking ahead to the april retail sales number out tomorrow morning. everything on miftsz are expecting an -- economists are expecting an increase of sales of seven tenths of a percent month over month. joining us now, anderson capital management chief investment officer, peter anderson. thank you for being here. what do you think will be more important to markets this week, the retail data, whether it's earnings or the retail sales coming out, or this debt negotiation meeting which is happening tomorrow between kevin mccarthy and the president and other congressal leaders? >> well, first, the easy answer, maria, i think the debt negotiation will go fine. we just have to look at history. there has been 20 of these negotiations in the past 20 years and we all know that they have turned out dare i say okay in the sense that there was he closure. so i don't think this one is going to be any different from the past 20 years of exerci

it's too hard to predict even though it's so hard to run i don't feel that way about tjx. it does best when scores like bed, bath are closing. after the close we get results from cisco and the giant network but it's become hopelessly out of favor with the analyst. cisco reported some last go around often the backlog without new orders coming in next, i'm gets a sense take 2 interactive might be due for a change of fortune. last time around they came here, right here and told us he was not happy with his own performance. i don't see that happening again. now, of course, we'll be covering all of these issues, especially tjx at the investing club monthly meeting a lot of you had some nice sense what we were up to with the club i am ninforming you of this and you might want to sign up. thursday morning walmart and alibaba's time to shine. walmart's stock has been meandering higher. that's a recipe for better than expected numbers i like alibaba because china wants to unload more ipos on our markets, not theirs. why wouldn't our government help alibaba have a surprise profit it

tjx has a slightly higher end customer but off-price, warehouse clubs are a great -- are a great place to duck and cover right now. matt: great to get you in the studio. hopefully we can get you back. she covers the retailers for that shop. coming up, more details on pfizer's massive bond offering. it's raking in over 85 billion dollars in orders. an incredible book building. the sale lining up to be one of the biggest ever in the ig debt market. details next. this is bloomberg. ♪ go. go scientist. go software. go cure. go production. go faster and safer. emerson automation software helps breakthrough medicines get to market at warp speed. go human go. go boldly. emerson. matt: this is bloomberg markets. i'm matt miller. pfizer today is in the u.s. high-grade bond market with huge deal putting it among the biggest ever. bloomberg news is reporting the pharmaceutical giant is tapping the market for about 30 billion dollars to finance the acquisition of the biotech company, see jen. we just learned a few minutes ago the order book topped $85 million. joining us is bloomberg -- the bloomb

. >> the average consumer different from the tjx shopper >> i would say ross stores consumer is slightlyr income and they have a banner called dd discounts, which skews even slightly lower income so, they're a little bit different than a lot of the tjx shoppers, which is, of course, the tjmaxx, marshalls and home goods. but it is that off-price category retailer. >> court, thank you. courtney reagan. karen, put this together with the walmart results? >> very consistent the consumer is still there, they do have money to spend, they seem to be a little bit cautious though ross stores, it sounds like maybe a little sandbagging there, because target talked about may not really being much better than april and march was bad, so -- but we're seeing this sort of tradedown value-oriented, which, when you're walmart and you have that scale and you have that offering of groceries, you can do it. so, the consumer's still there i'd like to see us get out of what happened in march it will be next quarter before we really get a sense, i think, of -- is the debt ceiling issue solved do people feel bett

tjx is no longer doing that. they're saying, you know what?ith this in creative ways. dollar tree seems like they don't have the money to address it the way that tjx did, but they must, because this is just a case where there's no coming back if you have this trend line of theft, they have to deal with it spend money. solve it >> yeah. it was a miss, and the guidance, not good let's take a look at the market here at the open as we're back to 4,150 at the big board, kraft technologies celebrating the recent listing of its a.i. large cap tech at the nasdaq, the men's lacrosse league. >> i wanted to ask q, at our fantastic conference, the inaugural ceo conference, and eddy did not feel that lacrosse had that kind of thing i'm from summit. summit girls just had a big championship win and we are rabid but he just doesn't think that it has it. and i think that what he is looking for, and what apple is looking for is, if we can get mls to be as respected overseas, the production values of mls are pretty good, but no, i tried -- i threw out lacrosse i

tjx, discount retailer, they missed on revenue, still not terrible to start the year end raising 22, improved with inflation coming down and here's the important part, fill the whole left by the bed bath and beyond bankruptcy. stuart: general rule -- this is an intriguing story, and was on a side of streaming to for professional pickle ball. >> have you ever played pickle ball? why is interested? stuart: i've watched it in florida. [laughter] >> nimble. for tournaments, for pickle ball tournaments, the fastest growing sport in america. 36 million of battle, and you're tempted. for amazon i think it's all that surprising since we know sports and prime video has driven prime subscriptions which surpassed 200 million around the world and football, huge success the a lot of people in the market say adding more sports, not a surprise. i would say buying another studio, maybe there done. stuart: when i was about to say, the soccer team in britain, there's another offer on the table. how much is being offered? >> six and a quarter billion dollars, it's an offer from target group in the 11th

home depot out tomorrow, we have target, tjx, walmart, government retail data out as well for the month a lot to dive in and think about here. backing all of this up is a huge logistics industry. mark manduca of gx logistics -- gxo joins us. is this related to companies cutting cost? can you walk me through the read for gxo and the industry? mark: a strong set of numbers. the q1 highlight was maybe two fold. strong growth in this very contractual business we have had for many years rate on top of that, a very strong pipeline, robust pipeline, lots of consumer companies coming to us and we raised guidance. automation in very high demand and people trying to save costs. we saw this in 2008 and 2009. alix: what is your read through that? what do you get the sense of the level on demand confidence is? mark: there are a couple of things to think about. if you think about what is happening with the consumer right now, it is an uncertain time. the reality is the u.s. consumer is beginning to see frailty particularly in the discretionary home where type categories. the u.k. consumer has be

high inflation means budget conscious, down for discount retailers like walmart and tjx in the set targetse depot's we talked about with disappointing sales. 60% at walmart sales come from groceries which are americans continuing to spend to fill the fridge and shopping less at home improvement, home depot but i'm concerned about cheaper labels, private labels and walmart so instead of buying the labels that are more expensive, they're going the cheaper route. a lot of talk about shrinkage, we talked about this. fact. target yesterday said it will cost them 500 million this year. analysis i read from walmart is a lose 3 billion a year end shoplifting and theft. last year they want it's getting worse, that is on the rise that could lease lead to closures and that hasn't hurt on the bottom line but i think it will be a major theme throughout the year. stuart: a bigger story than the financial world. a couple of earnings reports before the bell this morning including cisco, way down. >> what's old is still old apparently. we looking at -- i say cisco outperformed the last six months or so but

should we take what we hear from target today and use it for other earnings like tjx and walmart cominghey're $100 billion retailers. they matter. target, walmart, home depot, costco we think the overall theme will be slowing retail sales beginning this year and going into the back half of the year our estimates are for sales to grow at the smallest rates since 2008, the great recession. we think margins will recover. supply chain costs are not as big a headwind as they were a year ago to me it's going to be the inventory glut that's largely behind us they're cycling the massive markdowns they took a year ago and that shouldn't repeat in 2023. >>> target ahead in the premarket right now. michael baker, thank you for being here. >>> coming up on "worldwide exchange," elon musk, more of his wide-ranging exclusive conversation with our own david faye bore and the key factor that musk says when it comes to being competitive and market value. much more in a moment. ♪ these are the people, who help you stay well. ♪ ♪ searching lower prices, ♪ ♪ and brands you love on the shelves. ♪ behind the

tjx is a discount retailer, i suppose, in the k2007 to 2009 price. >> it is telling it is reflectivef investor sentiment toward the stocks. i think the expectations were so low. it was a low bar to see a positive surprise yesterday and wraps into the macro and despite the headwinds and rising interest rates and cost of living and higher food prices, et cetera, consumer spending on some part of the retail sector is still resilient that is impressive. >> as our first guest, it takes a lot to get americans to stop spending that is true. >>> let's look at tencent which posted the fastest jump in revenue in more than a year. jumped 11% in the first quarter with the rebound of payment volumes. the results mark a strong bounce back of growth after negative and flat quarters. >>> alibaba will report before the shell. it is expected to benefit from the post covid reopening, but will take a hit from spending. emily tan filed this report. >> reporter: alibaba expected $1.36 per share on sales of $36 billion. marking another quarter of contraction. the business will be in focus with a contributi

. >> some of the picks are tjx operator of tj maxx and marshalls and ge when it comes to ge, it is notesting, frank. it used to be a con skconglomere it is getting simple they spun out ge healthcare. they are spinning out in january the power renewable business i think it becomes more of an aviation pure play they have done a good job of that business. that's the gem always has been. it got lost in the shuffle because it was a conglomerate. they reiterated guidance for free cash flow >> good point. stephanie link, we have to leave the conversation there you are buying into the market appreciate you being here. >>> one quick check of the futures. we have been watching them all morning. the s&p taking a dip to the down side dow jones industrial average in the red. nasdaq is higher that will do it for us here on "worldwide exchange. "squawk box" is coming up next thank you for watching it's official, america. xfinity mobile is the fastest mobile service. and gives you unmatched savings with the best price for two lines of unlimited. only $30 a line per month. the fastest mobile service an

visit indeed.com/hire >>> busy week for retail as you know tjx one of the bright spots today, sharesighest since about the middle of february they say fiscal q2 off to a good start. decent conversation about margins and eps. we're wahi ttcnghat with walmart on deck tomorrow take a short break and be back here in a moment we moved out of the city so our little sophie could appreciate nature. but then he got us t-mobile home internet. i was just trying to improve our signal, so some of the trees had to go. i might've taken it a step too far. (chainsaw revs) (tree crashes) (chainsaw continues) (daughter screams) let's pretend for a second that you didn't let down your entire family. what would that reality look like? well i guess i would've gotten us xfinity... and we'd have a better view. do you need mulch? what, we have a ton of mulch. ♪ >>> time for jim to stop trading. >> club members, if you parse the home depot call you heard many positive things it was weather and lumber i thought the stock was unfairly beaten up. and it's now down 80 cents from where it fell yesterday. so you're

miss more than 20 years, cut full year for being telling us what to expect later this week target, tjx a common thread here? what do you assess the retail big issues to even be right now, and what is your assessment of the home depot report. >> well a little different consumers focused on value i still like walmart largest grocer 5% grocery market that is going to do well numbers kind of open book grocery up i think walmart going to do fine, target is not heavy in groceries does well in good economies not in weak economies the consumer is struggling that has been true for year since 1961 both founded together good times target outperforms tough times walmart outperformance a target problem right now a wallwall kind of year tjmaxx is a value player worth 91 billion dollars keep that in mind guess what macy's is worth 4 billion dollars nordstrom 1/2 billion dollars, parasite is devoured the host in form of tjmaxx doing amazing, always bet on them going to do fine with home depot look, the consumer spent a lot on homes in pandemic not doing it 234ir78, lumber prices soared down to 50%, si

investors liked what they heard from -- though big retail story of the day, tjx and target getting in encouraged by the long-term outlook from target. we will talk about it later and be on the debt ceiling headlines, we are watching how the banks are performing today. it helps the russian alliance had the commentary about the deposit base that has helped fuel pac west, zions and america , up about 11%. matt: a lot of regional bank movers and of course, aside from the regional banks, the debt ceiling developments have been where investors are focused. this week, it has been a major focus. pimco's libby cantrell spoke on the effect on markets. >> i think we could see a relief rally. some of the uncertainty has been priced in to a small extent and i think if a deal is sooner than folks expect, it is pulled forward, you could see a bit of a relief. jon: the commentary from bank executives as part of the storyline today. jamie dimon of jp morgan, jane fraser of citigroup speaking with the majority leader chuck schumer about the debt limit. jamie dimon saying the u.s. government probably wi

of revenue up for grabs from bed, bath, and i thought it was going to be target this piece says it's tjxt's watch that because we forget, when a big retailer like that goes under there's a lot of merchandise. >> shared donation is what it's about. >> watch this company. it is the best in the industry all retail has been challenged. >> we'll talk about it next week how about tonight in addition to lift >> you know, that's my major focus. i feel, by the way, that this man who is a great humanitarian, talk about people like that in the business, but he was, he left business to go teach people how to read in africa and he's come back because this is a challenge that he really wants to win and that's why i say, if i were dara i would say, i feel a little - >> are you saying this guy is ali? >> my commencement speech. my commencement speaker. one of the greatest days of my life he was amazing. >> i remember that story. >> one of the most amazing men ever. >> good weekend. we'll see you tonight. "mad money" at 6:00 p.m. eastern with steady open here. s&p up about 9 don't go anywhere. good luck.

target tjx, wal-mart will be coming out with earnings this week adam, what are you expecting from the optimistic like me need a good number today retail rose 3%, last month they fell a percent. from up 3 to down one. so we need that 8 tenths gain this morning. that's important. that also gets to the narrative of what's been happening to this economy. if it weren't for the u.s. consumer we would be in a very different place. two-thirds of gdp in this country is consumer driven, so, again, we need to see some strong numbers on the retail front this morning. as for that home depot print is why the dow is down 7 -- 70, 80 points. for two years we were locked at home. the fact that the home depot numbers were a little bit soft actually makes perfect sense to me. i think the money has been spent. what i want is confirmation that americans are out there spending on experiences which has been certainly a theme and not doing so on their credit cards because that would be a little bit of a flag for me, big number at 8:30. we are looking up eight tenths of a percent, maria. maria: yeah, but i'm

home depot, target, tjx, walmart reporting quarterly e this week.ail sales number out tomorrow morning. economists are expecting an increase in sales of seven tenths of a percent month over month. what do you think this is going to tell us and how important is the retail sales number for investors, it does give us a good window into the consumer, right. >> absolutely. we talked about this last hour. we had bank of america's credit card report come out and starting to show some weakness not just in the middle to lower sector but of also the upper sector as well. and again, investors right now, they're taking in a bunch of information. you had stanley at the zone conference last week talking about more dead bodies coming down the pike. you had warren buffet talk about his situation, how you well he's done. i would encourage investors, listen, you're a long-term investor, i'm going to quote warren buffet. when others are fearful, you need to be greedy a. it's smart. look to take high quality companies, understanding compounding is a road to riches, com

little bit poor >> i think that everyone is going to be a little bit more cautious on guidance and both tjx and target today talked about march slowed because of the macro. april slowed again and may is off to a slower start. i think they're being conservative for sure. it's not a surprise, again, given the bank situation and all the unknowns with the fed and we're also seeing the shift from goods to services. that being said, i think that a lot of the bad news is in these stocks with regards to discretion inventories are coming down and the consumable piece, the grocery piece, is doing just fine i mean, beauty grew double digits for the last three years. food and beverage, household products did really well and discretionary is not doing well. eventually that will turn and i think they will get pricing power as a result. i'm not in this gloom and doom camp of consumer you know that because the job market is still tight and wages are still high on a relative basis. and inflation has peaked so i'm still in the camp the consumer will hang in there and a company like target offers a value prop

while i don't hate it, i am a much bigger fan of tjx which reports wednesday. we own it for our travel trust and telling members it should have a good quarter because so many bed bath & beyonds are vanishing. inventory is all over the place driving down prices so we have to wait and see. the ideal thing buy some tomorrow when we will talk about it at our monthly club call, fill everybody in. we know the oil price stocks worked during the last debt ceiling showdown so that gives me confidence they will work again. what's surprising, chipotle, yeah, these guys just reported terrific quarter this came in hot going into the last debt ceiling crisis and roared from 270 it 40 after it was solved and trades erratically. the best time when you have the most current information and that is i say -- chipotle, hey, next we own humana for the travel trust, while we didn't pick it for its outperformance in 2011, it didn't hurt, 65 to 90 like the others strong all year then dipped into the worst of the debt ceiling fiasco then caught fire again. i think it is the ultimate st

. >> yeah, that's true but i think there also is some weakness generally in the home category even tjx which of course has marshalls and t.j. max but also home goods we even heard walmart and target call out home as a soft area i think we all did our homes, did what we needed to do during the pandemic that part was done also some pull forward in some sporting goods equipment, outdoor things that's correct what dick's said as well also during the pandemic, how many kayaks does one family really need. and of course we do see some weakness in apparel and? discretionary spending and there's some question again is that because we went out and spend so much when we did finally re-emerge or is that because you're feeling a little tighter with a possible recession? i think there's a lot of question marks there so a lot of cautiousness for the rest of the year >> or how many trips could my wife jo make to home goods never enough >> never enough. and don't question her when she comes home >> i do not. i sit in the car all right, court, thanks >> thank you >> meanwhile, lots of opinions on the st

as we told investing club members at our noon club call, you can still buy the stock of tjx, which had the best quarter of the entire group. you know that offprice sector is so good. now, if you want to know more, just go to the replay of today's monthly club call. it's real good join up by opening the camera on your phone, all right, and pointing at the qr code that's right here you won't be disappointed, unless you don't know how to use a qr code, and then you got to go to the cnbc.com website third lesson we had half a dozen billionaires come on our network and give interviews, all within the last five days and all they wanted to talk about is how everything is so awful and terrell and dangerous. >> sell, sell, sell! >> the house of pain >> they're not just grottening about the debt ceiling they always hate the market, always well, i got to ask, is it more dangerous now, less dangerous, or were they just wrong? now if you want to understand the bad advice from the billionaires issue, hey, it's nothing new. you need to go back in history to learn about what the first super wealthy am

you can have tjx discount store.s consumer pulls back, that is where they will go even if they're still spending. expedia is a name you can have maybe short term in your portfolio. american airlines up the profit. travel is starting. maybe that is a good heart-term play on cyclicality. charles: great stuff, victoria. thank you very much. coming up, folks, advanced auto parts, those shares are absolutely being annihilated. i will bring in phil blancato. we'll go to fundamental school. you need to grab pen and paper. you need to be in the market to avoid hits like this. there were so many signs. we'll go through them at 2:30. erin gibbs is here with her latest stock picks this is a tale of two markets. she will break it down for us next. ♪. what if there was a community of like minded people ready to support you when you need it most? christian healthcare ministries is an organization with over 40 years of trusted care who understands the importance of family. a group that sees you for who you are regardless of your he

and then there's tjx, tj maxx. if people want to shop still and they don't want to pay retail, that's the best place for them to go. it's better than burlington the, better than ross stores. you can compare them on graphs. those are the two places right now based on my trade-down theory and the idea that we're going to the see lower rates into the end of the year, those would be my two picks right now, liz. liz: maybe or maybe not lore rates, but certainly a consumer slowdown. jay powell was asked about that. i want to to play exactly what he said and then,ar necessary toe, we'll -- err ernesto, we'll yet on the other side what you think the whale trade is at the moment. >> we're trying to reach and then stay at for an extended period a level of policy, a policy stance that is restrictiveive to bring inflation down to 2% over time. and that's what we're trying to do with our tool. i think slowing down was the right move. i think it's enabled us to see more data, and it will continue to do so. liz: yeah, it doesn't

we hear from home depot tomorrow and target and tjx on wednesday. walmart and alibaba on thursday.n deere, not retailer, but interesting company and foot locker on friday our next guest doesn't need to come on because i said everything she is thinking the market has been like a duck appearing calm on the surface, but paddling underneath amy wu silverman from rbc capital markets. amy, market is 4,200 on the s&p. nasdaq is up if it looks like a duck and qua quacks like a duck, it's a duck. you can't tell what is going on underneath >> who knows it could be like a duck in that way. we will see certainly how the debt ceiling resolves itself yeah, you know, what i meant is it appeared calm from the equity perspective, joe, but from a volatility perspective the reality is the violent sector rotations underneath. you know, your headline vix numbers are muted. if you look at the demand for the vix going higher, that is at historic highs it is concern, but it is forward looking. >> because we always talk about consensus and use that as a contrarian indicator, i was fascinated what you said

we'll see what they have to say on the conference call. >> let's talk about tjx and walmart. of the same, or the margin story is going to be pretty important as you mentioned, freight costs down and that's probably helping everybody too >> absolutely. freight is going to be the positive theme, i think. with regards to -- so target at 55% of their business is discretionary. and 45% is consumables for walmart, they have a better mix. 55% is grocery so, whether having pricing power, and so i think the comps are probably going to be pretty good 4.8% is expected international could be high single digit comps and freight will help gross margins, inventories will be likely be down as well if target can make that kind of progress, certainly walmart is going to as well with tj, it is a little bit different story. higher inventories is a positive for tj they're buying the stuff and they have better pricing so their transactions and basket probably are likely higher they are probably going to do about 2% or 3% comp. mar max, the bogey there is 6% or better. and, again, freight, they cal

. >>> right now it's time for some squawk picks our next guest at proctor & gamble, tjx companies, and.p.s., joining us is stephanie link stephanie, is there any common ana>> that's kind of the theme s year it's stock picketings. it's trying to find opportunities in the midst of dislocation. you mentioned a couple of names i like u.p.s. is one of them. it's a recent pick for me. it's down 14% from its highs it was down 10% last week alone after they reported earnings they definitely disappointed numbers definitely came down, but they only came down by about 5% i think the ceo is being conservative, just with what's happening around the world, right, and also the u.s. volumes are definitely slowing but this is a company with $100 billion in sales, so it's a -- it's got size, it's got scale, and the ceo is doing a great job in terms of technology innovation, and so i think margins have upside. it's blue chip on sale. >> except for procter & gamble, is that because they were able to get such strong pricing power, the margins they've been able to maintain >> i thought pretty much all of th

i'm talking to kohl's, macy's, tjx, burlington. i don't know who am i not talking to?ell me who i'm not talking to i'll talk to them too. >> the guy who runs the bodega down the street. >> none of those is telling me that apparel is up i talked to ollie's. i don't know who else to talk to i try to put together a pastiche if not a mosaic of prices. >> give us your conclusion from all the calls that you make. >> i'm saying apparel is down, and they're saying apparel is up i want to know where apparel is up i just -- tell me. i mean, you know, i'll tell you, across the street is hermes. apparel is up. >> maybe they're overweighting the hermes data. >> lvmh is up. >> i'll tell you what's interesting that goes along with this is the b of a card spend today, total per household down 1%, and a lot of that's happening at the high end where pay growth is not what it's been at the low end >> look, david, i clearly speak in hubris, but what i am saying is that you have to believe in the druckenmiller, you have to believe stan druckenmiller's view, which is that it's all a bubble

we get some good earnings reads from target on wednesday and walmart on thursday, tjx, ross stories, overall the earnings trend has been better. actually goldman sachs reiterated last week why they're positive on earnings and stocks because revenues were better and even margins were better than expected i will be interested, david, to hear what we get from these retailers. it's always been, remember, walmart doing better because it's heavily exposed to staples and groceries vcr sus target which is more discretionary. let's see if the trend is intact and they've all been saying the consumer is in good shape. we'll see if anything has cracked. there's evidence that things are slowing. >> what evidence would that be >> so we got the consumer confidence report. university of michigan, he preliminary may numbers on friday, that was a six-month low. it's a confidence reading. the other thing the bank of america institute data on credit cards and in particular, they raise the flag on high income households they're looking at people who make more than $125,000. they show that jobless benefit

you could talk about ulta, tractor supply, of course, tjx to some degree and arerh, depenn on where werebuild cycle. >> year to date, at one point, in april, it was up 17 for the year now down 7 so, all those year-to-date gains are wiped out. i do wonder, i mean, unless a retailer is willing to quantify the shrink impact, like target did, is it like blaming the weather and the classic thing that we know retailers tend to do >> yeah. i mean, i do think that ultimately, it does get quantified in a filing or something like that. they probably have to attribute it to something like that, write it off, write off the inventory. but no, it's tough to know exactly how much a part of the shortfall that is, and i mean, it's no doubt a chronic problem. sometimes people just feel like it's the cost of doing business, but it's become a little more extreme. >> it's become worse the analyst from bmo points out this was the first time in about four years that management only reiterated full-year earnings guidance for ulta. they're used to raising guidance, at least investors are, just because it's bee

are pre-bought walmart talked about it, they saw it consequentially decline you want to look at the tjxs'll have diff differentiation. >> yesterday, stocks were up sharply on the idea that the debt ceiling might -- we might have a deal. there might not be a default do you think that's probably the most likely scenario anything you've done around that what are your favorite sectors if retail is not at the top? >> haven't done anything about the debt ceiling because it's so binary we've been positioned pretty defensively. we're overweight in healthcare, staples, areas we're thinking you'll get more value over the next couple of years the multiples there are much lower than the overall market. a relief rally if we get through this phase, becky, they're going to focus on where companies are going to be, you got a lot of companies that have debt coming due and where is the demand going to come from you want to be in the right place. defensive companies, good balance sheets, good dividends if you look at theover all s&p, the afternoon stock is down for the year, there are plenty of opportuniti

at home depot underarmor said it drove prices for deal seeking shoppers which have gone walmart and tjx as states end their emergency snap benefit allotments. snap recipients are buying fewer groceries and trading down to cut costs. walmart called the change in benefits a net negative in april. shares of walmart and target have moved in opposite directions since their last reports and that gap could narrow this time around if there's a significant change in grocery sales, which walmart joan indexes in compared to target a boost from the recovery in china but called out caution in the united states. >> that's sort of a mixed bag here >> it is, it is. i want it to be a clear answer but it's never as clear as we really want it to be >> what are going to be some of the key things on the conference call in. >> absolutely you want to hear if consumers are doing a lot of trading down and in some cases we're seeing that and in some cases we're not. it's been interesting what we've heard from the banks they all thought the consumer was really strong. wynn called out the consumer as flush but som