we are thrilled to bring tobias levkovich and craig moffett. a non-opec note. the microeconomics of u.s. shale. you get to the same summary but through saudi arabia. >> he is saying opec is going to be disappointed by the lack of u.s. response to lower oil prices. if you have the infrastructure in place, the production trends and break even starts getting down to the $30's per barrel and not $40's or $50. the marginal cost of shale production is low enough that it does not force it. >> our wall street audience owns the oil. how does tobias levkovich adapt when you talk to a guy like ed morris or talk to goldman sachs? >> i have a lot of good friends there. in terms of when we look at the energy sector as a whole, big o il is the heaviest weight. we are neutral on the area. we are interested in enp and drillers where we've seen growth. we are not going to fight that by 1000 cuts. >> the drop in the price of oil is not going to break all show producers. who can hold out longer, big oil or saudi arabia? >> then you start getting into speculation. to me, that is no