and the news. >> out with toll brothers doesn't. help the situation. >> you know julie i want to go back to something you said with regard to some of these the spectrum across there. one thing that we do know is that many of the housing related stocks outside of the pure builders, i'm thinking names like home depot or lowe's or maybe names like masco on the building supply side of things have been trading alongside maybe not exactly lockstep, but they're not exactly momentum upside winners at this point either. how big of a deal is it for some of those other plays, like a home depot or lowe's, given the fact that the housing market right now seems to be losing at least a little bit of steam for the time being? >> yeah. >> i mean, i think it's absolutely critical, right? >> those all. >> of. >> those businesses, everyone has been holding their breath. if you read any analyst. >> note covering any of these. >> companies for all of 2024, we're just waiting for interest rates to decline. and we're all just waiting and waiting and holdin

again, shares of toll brothers down nearly 6%.ng the stocks hit hard yesterday on the latest homebuilder sentiment data, falling to its lowest level in five months. the drop largely being fueled by concerns over tariffs, which could raise homebuilder costs significantly. other homebuilders like d.r. horton, lennar, pultegroup, taylor morrison and kb home falling between a half a percent all the way down to 2%. take a look at the stocks ahead of the open. you can see in the red across the board right now. kb homes still down nearly 2% taylor morrison down about you know fractionally less than a quarter percent. but pultegroup down about one and three quarters of 1% for much more. let's bring in logan mohtashemi lead analyst at housingwire. logan good morning. always good to see you here. all right. so i know you're really an expert on the housing market, but i do have to ask you a question about some of this tariff concern when it comes to these homebuilder stocks. i'm looking at with the nahb, the national association of home buil

toll brothers implying a move of about 6%.pretty big for a company that doesn't usually move that much on earnings. oxy's implying a move of about 4%. and the new ticker is x, y, z. that's that's block, which used to be ticker skew x. y z was always our favorite sort of generic ticker when we were saying buy x, y, z stock. but you can't do that anymore because now you're talking about block. i think you could actually get long. this one, it looks a little bit weak technically, but the fundamentals i kind of like it. i think you can make sort of a hedged upside bet by buying the june 87th and one half calls and sell the march 98th against it. you're going to spend about six bucks a contract that's the equivalent of $6 a share. to make your bullish bet, you're going to try to capitalize on the fact that the nearer dated volatility is going to come in after they report earnings. we call that a vol crush. and that sort of acts as a tailwind to buy that longer dated upside. >> how long do i stay in this trade? how long before i kno

diana olick on what to expect from toll brothers.after the bell. pippa stevens on oxy and devon. you want to talk about what's on your mind today in this trading session. >> so market is continues to be very split. not in a particular hurry to get anywhere even though we've been hanging around the highs for a while. but i find pretty pronounced rotation today growth in value. how do you keep the s&p 500 flat? growth index down 30 basis points. value index up 40. so far the index has managed the market has managed to continue to kind of surf whatever wave comes in and not necessarily kind of get washed out in the process. that's been positive. i still think you're looking at a little bit of fatigue in some of the winners. the red hot stuff you hit robinhood, there's also hims and hers. there's costco, there's netflix all down multiple percent today. we're taking it naturally as well. and so we'll see if there's anything more to it. i've been talking for a while about how these expirations this week could sort of like let some of the t

holiday but then we resume on tuesday with fed speak from mary daly with earnings from baidu and toll brothersdnesday, minutes from the fomc and cpac gets underway. thursday, walmart earnings and the g20 summit in south africa and more earnings from mercedes and rivian. and then u.s. home sales and we look ahead to warren buffett's letter to shareholders on saturday. let us see how much value is alive and well in this market. from new york, that does it for us. same time, same place. this is bloomberg real yield's and this is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: welcome to bloomberg markets. let us get a check on the markets. on the face of things not a lot is happening but the s&p 500 is down a little bit. the stocks are moving en masse. we have a lot of earnings ries and the chip stocks blowing as the wind takes them. so the philadelphia semiconductor index about have higher and have lower. we have the 10 year at

take a look at toll brothers.nd the bottom line. average delivery price of a home also fell more than 1%. however, the company did reiterate its guidance of 11,200 to 11,600 homes delivered this year. tariffs also weighing on the entire sector. shares of toll brothers down more than 5%. another earnings mover for you bumble. those shares just tumbling right now after top and bottom line beats. but user numbers those fell well below expectations. you can see shares are down more than 17%. so net additions those fell by 77,000. the estimate was a net gain of 117,000. the company also revamping in an effort to face its competition and attract more gen zers. among the changes women they no longer have to make the first move. an eye is now being used to help make better matches. also, founder whitney wolfe herd will return as ceo next month. again, shares of bumble falling more than 17%. and we have an upgrade this morning. capital one shares are moving higher in an upgrade from b of a, you can see capital one shares m

toll brothers cratered the entire industry. everything from lennar, d.r. horton to home depot and lowe's and everything they sell. and there's the banking cycle now that's in fuego. it's smoking. i mean, it's crazy. the lack of democratic regulatory headwind and the slower rate cut cycle. good for them. wells fargo, goldman sachs, jp morgan screaming higher doesn't hurt that the whole industry seems very confident that the trump regulators will be more bank friendly than the biden regulators. well no kidding. who wouldn't be? on the other hand, you got groups like the transports. they're just getting clocked at a conference call today, norfolk southern, one of the big east coast railroads, traced out a soft picture. union pacific didn't seem all that exciting either. cold, sweet chemicals. horrible. those are the ones that go into plastic. plus, talk about being in the crosshairs of the tariffs. do we want to own a rail that runs from mexico to here, a trucking company like j.b. hunt? if we're getting into a tariff war with mexico, to me, this group feels

you can see homebuilders on the board, all down, so toll brothers down 1.5%. not great news for existing home sales, lighter than expected, down 3%. ashley: real estate markets in the doldrums. consumer sentiment, some numbers their too. ashley: coming in at 64. 7, that is not great. expectation is 67.8. this is the final reading for february. when you look at inflation expectations, 4.3% over one year and over five years, 4. 3% 3% one year inflation expectation is pretty high, is it not? stuart: the confidence at the lowest level since 2003. not a good point up to the future. not much market reaction. the market was down before those numbers came out, it is still down. i would be interested to see what the treasury is doing. now this. in 2023, an outfit called power forward communities brought in just one hundred dollars. it was a newly formed group of charitable organizations with an emphasis on climate. in 2024 a miracle, power forward got a to billion dollar grant from the environmental protection agency, $2 billion. friends in high places but friend in th

toll brothers, yesterday we also had some pressure on housing the nahb index. me is something that's happening as an undertow along the way, which is not about policy really directly. it's about can this part of the economy handle rates where they've gotten to at the start of this year? we don't know if it can or not. it's probably not enough to sink the expansion, but it's enough to take the edge off the growth a little bit. and maybe in combination with other things, like maybe a sudden group of layoffs from public sector or somewhere else, it could be something that changes the feel of this kind of no landing economy. i was going to ask you what you think would do more damage. a truly gruesome inflation print or a jobs print that was well below expectations. i always lean in the direction of the market can kind of deal with inflation because you can massage it away in the analysis. you can sort of we've already gotten to a point where the fed is not expected to cut soon. i do think that a downside growth scare is probably the thing i would be more more conce

toll brothers yesterday said they're doing okay on the high end of the market from a home building standpoint but there's not enough affordable houses out there as far as inventory goes and the home builders don't want to start building them until mortgage rates come down so it's the chicken or thing, which comes first. maria: that's why president trump one of his first executive orders was more supply in housing, right? >> you've got to have that. you've got to have more supply and have to figure out how to get mortgage rates to an affordable level. someone making 80,000 a year, the median household income in the united states, there needs to be a path for them affording a $250,000 house in a respectable area with decent schools. maria: yeah. apple unveiling its cheaper iphone, the 16-e model, powerful enough to support the apple intelligence feature, looking to boost overall iphone sales after falling 1% last quarter. microsoft revealed the first quantum computing chip, won't be available through microsoft's azure cloud but it opens the door to future models with greater capacity is what th

so look at toll brothers you know yesterday and you look at the results. you could say okay there's a supply demand dynamic here. but we also have 30 year mortgages at nearly 7%. people are kind of stuck in these homes. it's not a great environment to get a home equity loan, that sort of thing. so when you talk about guy, if you're what guy just mentioned fighting inflation with credit cards or credit in general with high yields, it does speak to a fact that we're not going to get a whole heck of a lot of growth until, you know, we get that neutral rate in some ways. right. and so the fed is probably given up on getting that 2% in 2025 on that inflation target. and so that's why i just think rates are kind of stuck here. so maybe we get in a stagflationary environment when you add in the potential for tariffs as a headwind. and you know, the other thing is if the trump administration, if they've kind of overstepped their bounds a little bit on the tariff front, they might not have a lot of leeway to get done what they want to do as far as deregulation and

toll brothers missed.nt warned on its earnings call that political uncertainties are impacting consumer confidence and market stability, while return to office has commercial real estate showing some signs of life, particularly in new york city. manhattan's commercial property sales volume is now back to pre-pandemic levels, according to new data, while blackstone is reportedly planning to take out a loan of about $800 million for a stake in a 50 story office building. so we've got the c-suite view on both. joining us now is doug bower. he's the ceo of tripoint homes, and tony malkin, the ceo of empire state realty trust. welcome to both of you. doug, it's great to have you here. and, you know, there's so many things to unpack, but more broadly, it was the best of times for the homebuilders just a year or two ago. and now i don't want to say it's the worst of times, but the mood has certainly shifted. >> yeah. >> kelly. >> thanks for having me on. you know, let me just break it down. into two components. t

. >> the incredibly reliable toll brothers called the spring selling season mix. that's what. >> we want. >> to hear. we also hear from lowe's, which is. >> always in a horse race with home. >> depot, but. has been a standout performer. for years. the stock never soars. >> it just quietly goes higher. i love. >> that at the close we get. >> some fireworks. >> there's salesforce. oh boy. >> which is thought to be doing very well, but don't tell that to the shareholders, who have been shellacked in a battle wave of selling. this is a richly valued momentum stock, although a stock, by the way, like servicenow. >> is much more expensive. then there's. snowflake the rent, the cloud play. >> that's become. >> far more than that, really. it's a real advisor to those who want to learn more about. >> how to. use artificial intelligence in the business. >> and then there's the most important company report this week, if not this year. okay, nvidia, we have many reports offering forecasts. >> of. >> how the $3. >> trillion. ai and accelerated. >> computing company might be d

traders looking to a first read on housing with homebuilder giant toll brothers reporting earnings afterlovallo writing, "we believe market sentiment has rapidly shifted towards pessimism which creates the most attractive buying opportunities." john, good to see you. let's start with interest rates and then tariffs in the rebuild efforts on both sides of the united states on the west coast and the southeast. 4% policy rates at the federal reserve, north of that at the moment. 6% to 7% mortgage rates. how has the housing market functions with that as a backdrop? john: thanks for having me. we talked about this in the past. what's interesting about the public builders positioning, when you are buying from a public builder, you are not paying 7%. a tremendous catalyst for the unleashing demand out there which we think is still strong. from an existing home sales market, higher rates would keep some of that inventory contained an activity contained. the public builders should be able to at least it with the use of those incentives. lisa: how much confidence can investors and public homebuild

we saw soft numbers with toll brothers this week and those kinds of sectors are more interrelated.eding the home sector right now. not that interest rates are at record highs. they are higher than they have been in a long time. as far as consumers have seen interest rates like in the 1990's, we still have good levels. until consumers get more accustomed and are prepared for the fact that it is a new normal , i think we will see softness in the home sector. that is different than what we are seeing with mass goods that get purchased at walmart. annmarie: when it comes to tariffs every day there seems to be a new item. last night it was lumber added onto donald trump's list of what he might want to go after. at what point will we see walmart and other retailers start to incorporate what tariffs could mean when they give out guidance? sucharita: we already see companies like amazon had a highly ranked risk factor at there is ec filings walmart is in a watch and see mode because it is difficult to know whether these tariffs have teats or whether they are political theater -- whether th

toll. eli sharabi as you mentioned, his wife, daughters, brother, all dead. and several of these hostages as well have had loved ones killed. they will have to be dealing with the new reality even as they celebrate being free finally. but it's certainly a very long, long road to recovery. and salma, speaking of a long road, i want to turn now to the future and we have been talking a lot here, at least in the u.s., of netanyahu's visit to washington. and of course, donald trump's plan to take over gaza. any sense of of how all of that might impact as we go into the future and look at how all of this could impact phase two? >> it's very difficult to speak about impact. when president trump didn't present a plan, he just made a shock announcement. he just shook up and entered a new era in the conflict without actually explaining how and where and when and why, and any detail at all. now, president trump has said he is going to try to strong arm essentially other middle eastern countries, other countries in the region, such as egypt and jordan, into taking gazans