" >> before tom kolman? >> before tom kolman. >> same day? >> same day.hought that was a sterile environment." and she said, "well, you should give that a check." so, we did. >> sure enough they got a match. turns out the dna belonged to the deceased male who'd been on the medical examiner's table before tom. so the dna had nothing to do with the case, but it did mean that some evidence had been contaminated. >> what are you thinking when you hear that? >> well, i'm thinking a couple things. i'm thinking, "that's gonna be a problem at trial because of the contamination." but i'm also thinking, "thank god, we get a little break. >> and after all the additional testing, the medical examiner finally had a cause of death, acute midazolam poisoning. investigators took everything they had to a special prosecutor and argued they were sure gilberto nunez had killed the man he called his best friend. >> i don't think that nunez was ever a friend to kolman. not for a minute do i believe that. he is a master manipulator. he lives to manipulate. i believe he drew tom

tom: how do you sell it. to french hill of little rock the other day with the same challenges. i would suggest arkansas a grimmer story than tennessee. what is the prescription you have with your knowledge of nashville media and tennessee business, what is the plan to jumpstart this as we hear from president biden? sen. hagerty: as we look at where we are headed, the numbers continue to look much better. we just need to continue to talk about that positive outcome, that positive result and encourage people to continue to get behind it. as school reopens, we will probably see another pickup in inoculation. tom: one final question on this. what do you need from former president trump to send a message to the unvaccinated? sen. hagerty: president trump is having a hard times any -- is having a hard time sending any messages thanks to the censorship of big tech. his message has been stifled. i think that is troubling. in terms of his message, no one worked harder to put a vaccine in place. people know that. i thi

tom: i agree. tom keene, kailey leinz, jonathan ferro. lisa back next week. tom: so she says.han: she will be back, tom. no doubt about it. she will be missing this. equities -1.1%. lisa will be missing this kind of price action. i'm sure she will write in at any moment. 4270 on the s&p 500. this is bloomberg. ♪ leigh-ann: with the first word news, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. opec and its allies have overcome a split that threatened the supply in the oil market. they have reached an agreement to invest 4000 -- to inject another 4000 barrels of crude a day into the economy. saudi arabia met the united arab emirates halfway on its demand for oil output. those that helped smuggle former nissan chairman carlos ghosn out of japan are going to jail. they received a 20 month sentence. senate majority leader chuck schumer has set up two major tests this week. schumer is hoping to have a first test vote on the bipartisan infra structure bill this wednesday. he wants democrats to get behind a much bigger bill that would carry out the bulk of president biden's agenda. finally, an american has

tom: tom: good morning. bloomberg surveillance. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, tom keene.y are off. holding me off, romaine bostick and matt miller. romaine bostick back from massachusetts and matt miller in berlin. very exciting day. i thought it would be a snooze fest. remain, help me with the data. romaine: the nasdaq composite, right now futures up .1%, a similar story for the russell. flat on the day. a lot of the tech names and the nasdaq, a lot of the energy names in the russell, that is why you're getting a pop. what will sway the market, we will see what happens when it opens. what happens with the chinese adrs in the u.s. companies linked. tom: inflation-adjusted yield a stunning -.95. to see a negative 1.00 would be something really pushing against the economy recovery. right now on the american economy, i have to explain this for radio. what we have learned at surveillance that in the pandemic we do work from home shots there are usually stunning bookshelves and we keep track of who is reading what. we cannot do that. let me describe the picture. this is a subu

tom: no.t is entertaining me is jon has a team of 20 people to get him to really yield friday, and what i would recalibrate on real yield off of that dude move we saw from chairman how yesterday is not so much the nominal yield but inflation estimate that gets you to the residual, that real yield. if you listen to david rosenberg, that residual will come in with a vengeance and you will have a real yield that recovers. jon: are you calling that a huge move yesterday? is that what you did? tom: i think it was substantial, yeah. i think we went out to negative real yield statistics. jon: we can do that now, would you like to carry on? [laughter] is this the editorial meeting now? i think our audience would like us to continue, with the show, if you want to. tom: i can go either way. lisa: [laughter] tom: jack kaplan joins us. jackie kaplan, there it was, spiking out to negative real yield yesterday. is it a "so what?" >> perley from the fed it is. there is no and -- no incentive from the fed to

tom: the data is really interesting. we will have guests to give us some clarity. something has to give. i look at this data screen. you wonder what has to give. on much of the dollar, it is static. which way does the dollar cut? jonathan: tell me where this bond market cuts. yields come in another to basis points. lisa: i am struck by the contrast between the s&p estimates and the real yields that keep going more negative. this idea that we are projecting low growth ahead, and at the same time hearing about the highest rate of growth we have seen in decades. it does seem incoherent on some level. at one point is this just free money liquidity tipping the scales? jonathan: we will find that. we get cpi, bank totals, and chair powell testifying. tom: it is a two day testimony. you've got to believe they will be reaffirmed, particularly after the lagarde interview with francine lacqua this weekend. jonathan: michelle meyer expecting that deficits to come from jay powell. let's turn to the pr

tom: september 22 is what matters. jonathan: the next after this one. tom: yep.onathan: after jackson hole. tom: taken over by the delta variant. jonathan: we actually did a survey on that. lisa, i know you have gone through that, too. september seems to be the landing port for a lot of folks in this market. lisa: economists surveyed by bloomberg expect we will get tapering rhetoric. i do wonder how much of a path the chair has based on the delta variant. i could make it up, too. jonathan: good to know that lisa doesn't make it up, too, tom. tom: right now, emily wilkins saves us in washington. speaker pelosi is trying to not do a john boehner. no one talks about senator schumer and his leadership of a senate majority doing a john boehner. does senator schumer has the troops behind him? emily: he's working to get them there. let's be real, at this point, we don't have a bipartisan and for structure deal, and even as that is coming together, we are hearing other democrats in the conference raise concerns. we don't have any sort of budget resolution, which we are g

tom: good morning,

tom: that is important.ator schumer spoke about, nobody gets to go home, which is serious talk in washington. now that you are doing the washington gig, you get to take off the month of august. today tell you that? >> that is the gig in europe, too. jonathan: deadlines just the same. >> same as the european union or brexit. you will hear it is time for crunch time talks, deadlines, etc., lawmakers do want a break. they want to go home in august. there is a deadline in the sense that we have a debt ceiling approaching. there are other issues being held up because they are trying to work on this bipartisan infrastructure agreement. the democrats want to get it done so they can work on their big plan, the $3.5 trillion package. jonathan: good to catch up. this is not a trick question. hands up who is waking up in new york city if you know the answer to whether you should be wearing a mask indoors? has that been mandated? i have no clue. tom: i decided last night and i failed this morning, i have to start carryi

in washington, tom. get back to work. that's the message and a lot of the u.s. right now. get back to work on wall street. what do you make of the president's response? jack: on the ui stuff, i believe , if i am recalling correctly, the debate over unemployment in the ui unemployment insurance stuff has kind of stagnated. i am not sure if i am a member in the exact response -- if i remember the exact response you are referring to, but with 2022 in mind, there's a very partisan debate over the presence of the continued unemployment insurance payments and also the expectation that they are set to end in september anyway. i am not sure there was a significant response in my mind that you are referring to. jonathan: it is not exactly a stern defense of this administration's policies, is it? jack: no, democrats have kind of backed off of that for probably a month now. republicans have pushed and pushed and said we need to get people back to work. there are some democrats who would like those payments, or are

tom f: yes i can.you look at it as a precursor of what sustained sales could look like for apple, they have north of 40% revenue growth in the june quarter for china, but the build up in the 5g network is far ahead of the u.s., far ahead of the western world. if you are thinking of starting with china and 5g, i think you can have a sustained double-digit topline growth for apple for years to come. tom k: they are buying back shares with apple cash flow. if you get revenue growth, do you assume the privatization of apple with that massive share buyback? tom f: i think you can assume they will continue to use a large portion of their free cash flow to buy back their stock. i think the big benefit apple got when they lowered the corporate tax rate is it freed up even more cash flow to buy back shares. so yes, they are generating by apple standards very robust topline growth. when you think of their high margins, lots of free cash flow, lots of opportunity to buy back their stocks and retire the shares, as

tom: let me get out of triple leveraged all-cash. jonathan: stay where you are, tom. we started this hour talking about where we started last year. for these calls going into this year, it was the first week of november. when you came out with 3950, and i understand it is now 4100 year-end, i also understand that a forecast by definition cannot be wrong because it is a forecast, and we still have for months on the calendar. what has surprised you? you were bullish. many people were not bullish enough. what surprised you to the upside? binky: number one, it is earnings and how strong they have been. number two is how the market is treating those earnings and where we are basically in the cycle. i think it is important to keep in mind that the cycle has been proceeding very fast, especially if you look at corporate america and where earnings are. if you look at things like gdp, you would say the cycle has a long ways to go. we are still waiting for q2 numbers, and that might us above recoded levels relative to the trend in gdp, and that suggests there's a lot of upside

with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: wanted: 20 -- 1.25. this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio. your equity market, 4295 on the s&p. lisa is out of the building. romaine bostick helping us get through the price action. here is the price action. a little bounce in the equity market. still down 1.2% on the s&p. 1.25 on the 10 year yield. tom: huge news flow this morning and important voices joining us. michael shaoul in moments. the range bound on equities is there. we've not breached the range of the recent moon shot up. a little bit of stability. fixed income should be the point of analysis. jonathan: look at the curve. 1.05. in five basis points. tom: coming in five basis points. it is amazing how the whole inflation easter -- how the whole inflationista thing has been given up. it is a huge surge in repo and the idea of pushing out the yield curve into the price up, you'll down. not talking and i've -- not talking enough about price up. the ecb concerns the

tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. july 1, it is the beginning of the second half of 2021. jonathan ferro, we are in a great bull market. jonathan: we are slab bank on the median forecast. we have had some huge gains today, plus 14% on the s&p. for some people, this is where it ends. not for everyone, though. credit suisse is out there at -- tom: they're going to recalibrate after earnings up or down. jonathan: we are all bond market strategists. can you tell me where the 10 year yield is and i will tell you what sector to sit in. tom: lisa, that is what it is about. even equity -- the equities team follow bonds and bond vigilantes. lisa: but they follow data that is inconclusive at this point. we are going to learn about inflation in the next cupping months -- next couple months. -- that is some of the turbulence there forecasting. tom: liz ann sonders was with us and edward yardeni in a moment. we hook up with edward yardeni by wires and the screen turns green. it is amazing. we have the nasdaq finally green on the s

tom: please. lisa: there was a disagreement in the opec-plus members, and the united arab emirates pushed back on the process by which they measured output. they did not come to an agreement. if they do not come to one, and don't raise production to meet the increased demand, you will have a rollover of seeing the production limits, which means the supply not necessarily meet demand in the same way, leading to higher prices. a key question going forward. tom: i got a jump in here, because i think it is important that we see miss abramowitz with a european focus on her work today. jonathan: absolutely. tom: jon and i will be enjoying rain-swept new york city. let's go to the greek data check. we can do that with athens equities up at an 888 level. jonathan: nice. tom: i believe they use the euro on one of those islands in greece. lisa: thank you. tom: i think that is the price -- no, that is the nash -- i thought that was the price of feta cheese but that is the national bacon grease time. jonathan

tom, just for you, 74.16. tom: opec is in the mix. jon: i agree. tom: the bentley was down today so i took kenny in the lift. [laughter] lisa: we are getting to oil in just one second, because in the day ahead, we should get a sense of what we could expect with respect to supplies coming back online. 8:30, let's get started with jobless claims. the initial claims of the week. i'm interested to see how much further this falls. the expectation is for 380,000 down from 411,000. last week, again, the steady climb lower. at what point do we reach a ceiling that perhaps labor market is improving more dramatically as they jump to tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls? today, we will also get the opec plus meeting to consider output boosts, the question on based on a credible demand coming back online, will saudi arabia allow some of the output production to go back into the market? this has been the argument for the likes of russia, saudi arabia has pushed back. u.s. auto sales today to be released for june. the expectation is to climb quite a bit, not just because

tom: sup -- the delta variant. tom: some of this is canada.here's like a 20 day differential there. jonathan: the bigger issue seems to be with europe right now. if this is about the delta variant and is already so prevalent in the united states, the dominant strain, what good is the travel ban? if united states citizens can travel freely, what does that accomplish? tom: my eyes glaze over on it. i really can't keep track of it. . jonathan: coming up on the program, former world bank chief economist on an important moment for the global economy. yields are lower by a couple of basis points to 1.2529% on 10. your equity market down six on the s&p 500, -0.14%. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. heard on radio, seen on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: the four day winning streak into monday on the s&p 500. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. 60 minutes away from the opening. negative a little more than .1%. yields in a couple of basis point to 1.2529. euro stronger against the u.s. dollar. that

tom: good morning, everyone. simulcast on radio, on television, and it is a most surprising market. romaine bostick in for ms. abramowicz. it is a raging battle about what to do when the stock market. jon: we said earlier on in the morning, show us the bond market, i will give you the equity call. your 10 year yield at 1.34%. your 10 year yield at 1.34%. who was lookingqjz middle of summer after the growth figures we've had in this country? who was looking for a 30 year sub 2%? that was not the consensus view. those positions got hit once a couple of weeks ago. they got battered again yesterday. tom: the real yield right now, that 10 year duration at get a 1.0023%, says it all. on the equity front, it is a raging decision between being u.s., or maintaining a cyclical view, or get back on board amazon and its brethren. romaine: i think you are seeing a reassessment of that cyclical view go for the growth stocks, which are by default the safety stocks in this new era. but you talk a bout the rotation we saw little

tom: i don't know.l ferro, they should kick the ball from farther out and make the penalties more exciting. washington always exciting. jack fitzpatrick joins us this morning. i want to talk about jacksonian americans. president trump had a big portrait of andrew jackson in the office. we are migrating away from a jacksonian america, but i huge part of the republican does not. tell us about that tension of the republican primaries in march of 2022. what is the strength right now of mr. trump's jacksonian america? jack: trump really is the force behind the republican primaries right now. if you look around the country in congressional primaries, whether you have gotten an endorsement from trump or whether you have cast yourself as a trump i could light is a key question -- trump acolyte is a key question. especially if you are trying to get at what his legacy is and how he shapes the country in the long-term, does the republican party stick with him in 2024? is he going to run, or even just how he factor

tom: it will be. what we see at sun valley, all of those elites are going to have to meet and say how do they adapt across 72 items. romaine: it will be interesting to see how many of those items become a reality. i think the message is clear that for the next three years, you have a regulatory environment that is going to be a lot more scrutiny over some of these deals. i think that could put a little bit of a chill on some of these mega-deals, but overall, the market seems to be taking it in stride. tom: let's go to the bond market. i'm looking at the real yield. we went down to negative one point whatever. we come back to a more attractive negative number. jonathan: up five points on tens. your yield, 1.3377%. futures positive by 0.5%. what is the new range over at bmo on the 10 year, low one 20's to 1.47% for the next month and a half? what ian had to say is even if i told you what the economic data point was going to be for next week, the week after, could you tell me with confidence and convicti

tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. a simulcast, bloomberg radio, bloomberg television. a friday to reset, there i, into august. it is able market -- dare i say, into august. it is a bull market that will not end. jonathan: i think we have to look past august and into next year. we are at a pivotal point, if you believe the cdc, for the pandemic. we won't get the answers to these questions on the outlook until september or october. everyone comes on this program and talks about it for good reason. september is critical for the additional and limited insurance to end, for the return to school to develop, and there are risks around that now. september and october will produce the data that gets people either the confidence to look ahead to a brighter 2022 or perhaps the reason to trim their forecast. tom: it is an exceptionally strong hour for you on bloomberg radio and television. peter hotels will join us later -- peter hotez will join us later in the hour, ed hyman, and sam stovall with us. what did not happen this wee

tom: they have earnings to back that up. there are any number of earnings, but just the covid business blew it out. there is no other way to put it. citigroup went to a 345 price target and you wonder how many dinners will there be? jonathan: the nasdaq 100 record high and twitter snapped, taylor riggs after the close yesterday, they blew it away, and facebook and google are joining the party. taylor: saying that if you are an advertiser you want to be on these platforms, namely snap. if it is a choice between snap or twitter it is snap. it is incredible the type of growth you see. highly daily users and twitter doubled the market value. we saw a 10% move, every premium content wants to be there. he raises a price target to 84. jonathan: this is just raising the bar for big tech earnings. taylor: everyone had given them frustration for nasdaq 100. how much of this is a defensive move and these are the companies that are turning down freak a lot -- cash flow and are outperforming. jonathan: the numbers look good and this has

alongside tom keene, im jonathan ferro joined by taylor riggs. we can talk about that a little bit later. equity futures on the s&p up 19th, advancing for 10th -- advancing 0.4%. tom: we spoke with michael purves yesterday. others begin to recalibrate, to take their earnings. the french luxury conglomerate. but there is benjamin laidlaw. i love what he says. it is a healthy pause. what we saw is not a correction. jonathan: 5% more common, averaging three year. history favors buying them. the fundamental outlook is unchanged. let us talk about this bond market. we went from 1.12 to 1.25 this morning. tom: a sigh of relief and may be more clarity on the delta variant. there it was a little bit of pandemic calm in the last 12 to 24 hours. jonathan: let us talk about the delta variant and united airlines. that did not sound like an airline too concerned about the future. kailey: a full recovery of demand by 2023. if you've been traveling, you would think there was a full recovery demand this weekend. w

: tom: jobs report. we will go right now into -- the next jobs report. tom: we go right into why we see flattening. why do we see flattening in the yield curve? jonathan: i will give you a range of options, there are two. either this market is well in line with the federal reserve and believes inflation is transitory, or the market and some participants think the fed will choke off growth and inflation early. priya misra from td texas to the latter and not the former. tom: it is also a fact of a bill in 2006, price up and yelled in. lisa: you see that, but there are two different stories here. tom: you really think so? lisa: i do think so. to some degree there is a separation between credit, full facing credit, backing their debts in the united states. the idea of the good economy is better for companies more leveraged. on the flipside, government debt, you don't want to own if you expect inflation. i'm looking at people acknowledging nothing structurally has changed over the pandemic to lead to a higher

tom: you note that. -- you nailed that. jonathan: thank you, tom. from new york city this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. just a little grumpy this morning, aren't you? all-time highs in the equity market, inflation dat is next. . this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: live from new york city for our audience worldwide on tv and radio, waiting for economic data in america. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. here is michael mckee. michael: good morning. we have some inflation. a lot more than anticipated. on a month over month basis the cpi rises .9%. the forecast was for .5%. the poor rate up .9% -- the core rate up .9%. we had 5.4% for the cpi and the core at 4.5%. significant increases this last month. let's take a look at some of the ones we have. in terms of the change, food is up .8%. energy up 1.5%. that includes a 2.6% rise in gasoline prices, which is going to be a problem. gasoline continues to rise. used car prices still contributing to this, up 10.5%. app

tom and jackie hawks?these people. >> and i go -- >> and at that moment, then i just said, ugh. any possibility that the hawks were still alive died right there, unfortunately. because, as soon as i heard that i go, no. >> they called me on their way up. it's like, yep, we got it on the back of flat bed of a truck. we got it. we caught him in a lie. it was key. it was so essential. >> the fact that skylar dropped that car off, huge break. >> skylar deleon has already told police, i don't know what happened to the hawks. all they said was they were driving off to mexico. >> they realized that skylar deleon and jennifer, who is also described, had been down there. they had now witnesses who knew them. and they said, they gave us this car. >> skylar had befriended this gentleman's son years earlier. and skylar was an avid surfer and would go down and surf and would stay with that family. >> that family had no idea who that car belonged to or the circumstances. >> i was about 99% sure that my parents were murd

tom, what a week we have lined up. tom: this is an important market moment. yields breaking down. if you can get to the real yield, see it folks on friday afternoon with food with -- with where we are now. inflation-adjusted yields, it speaks volumes. i would kill jon and talk to laura summers about stagflation. jonathan: the earnings, a huge amount of tech earnings through this week. chairman powell this wednesday. tom: some noise, taiwanese floods, the delta variant playing into all the dynamics in china. it is going to be a bang up earnings week. jonathan: the hang seng over in china, hong kong, getting absolutely battered. lisa: last week, china came out with a crackdown on education companies, saying they may possibly make them all not-for-profit, cracking down on the profitability of these companies. regulatory uncertainty is taking on a new meaning in china and a lot of people are saying the stocks are virtually uninvestable. there is a question of how far china will go in this crackdown and why they are doing it. jonathan: hang seng off by more than 4%. i think the poster

tom: morgan stanley going the other way. that if the decision that makes people tune in in august. maybe we will have more than 42 viewers and listeners in august. jonathan: thank you for that, tom. great promotion of this program. [laughter] here's the quote. "in the near term, a complete service sector recovery will likely require return to office work patterns." how many people are in that boat? tom: there's a lot of people in the boat, but i'm sorry, morgan stanley goes completely the other way. jonathan: we will get into it any moment. that's part of the market. that's the debate. i'm with you. tom: i'm in cash. i feel comfortable. jonathan: clearly, given you are not per and what we see on the screen. are you finished? lisa, we are not doing that. lisa: never done. jonathan: you take a drink, relax. take a deep breath. tom: tang. even when they don't launch a rocket which we have 10. lisa: the idea here, they really pointed to the return to office and how that has really liked behind

tom: thank you so much.omaine bostick with others the euro -- this afternoon, remap bostick -- this afternoon, remain bostick with others. the silliest gkionakis -- vasil eios gkionakis with bank lumbar dodi a, you see strong -- with banque lombard odier, you say ace strong move. why do we see such a strong move? vasileios: it has to do with domestic fundamentals. there have been some signs of slowing down, but nonetheless, the chinese growth is still going to cause a rise in the second half of the year. there are a lot of flows into china right now, and this is because of the introduction of a lot of chinese assets in the benchmarks. the other thing that is going out quite interestingly is that chinese exporters have been feeding into an unusually large pile of dollars over the past eight to nine months, and whenever we have had that in the past, which coincided with period of prices, it lead to acing the unwinding of that pileup dollars and conversion back into the renminbi. the confluence of all of these

is that not your takeaway, tom? no? tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. thought you were fired up. it lasted, like two minutes. coming up, george son of bnp pick asked george -- george sun of bnp paribas. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: federal reserve chair jerome powell says it is too early to scale back aggressive support for the economy. he told the house financial services committee the debate over bond buying will continue at the central bank's upcoming meeting. meanwhile, chair powell says inflation has risen faster than expected. he is back on capitol hill today. senate democrats have found a way to help pay for that 3.5 trillion dollar tax and spending legislation. bloomberg has learned they want to impose tariffs on carbon intensive imports. the plan also includes expanding tax credits for renewable energy and electric vehicles. in china, i can growth studied in the second quarter. gdp expanded at 7.9 from -- 7.9% , a number skewed by the pandemic. industrial output estimates last month. in south africa, the number of soldiers deployed to put down

tom: jack, thank you so much. interview with secretary yellen in brussels she advances forward her view on this combined tax. jon, when i hear the word treaty, i hear timeline and the timeline flashes, and it runs into a brick wall. i'm asking you. you are better informed than i am. jonathan: we are not there yet on both sides. tom: i think we all understand the advantages, getting ireland to cooperate as well, but i just look at the timeline, and when jack fitzpatrick mentions treaty, that is long. jonathan: and then a couple of moments, we will hear from goldman. second-quarter investment banging revenue, 3.45 billion dollars, up 26%. trading revenue, $4.9 billion. a little letter on fixed income. sales and trading revenue comes in at $6.2 billion. we are firm or just a little bit on equity sales and trading revenue. $2158. second-quarter net revenue, $15.39 billion. second quarter eps, $15.02. a lot of numbers to pour through, but just to give you some of the highlights so far from goldman. tom: they put the qu

tom keene, yields can rise as well as full. tom: they can. there is a huge set of research notes out, everyone publishing early off of the growth scare we have seen of last 48 hours. we will have a lot of different opinions on that. conrad in moments, but i am looking at the bloomberg terminal, telling me this growth scare is on the edge of over. jon: yields of five basis points to 134. i think people are trying to work this out. i think many people believe we are at some kind of inflation point. morgan stanley believes that next level is not behind, it is in front of us. tom: the idea he says is real correction would be a buying opportunity. we have not had that. wilson stalking we need 10% or 15% down to be has buying opportunity. he shows optimism for equities out one to two years. jon: we are down .7%. on the week so far. romain, you know that means, the nasdaq slower and the s&p 500 is doing ok. romaine: the s&p 500 doing ok. we should point out the nasdaq is basically flat on the week. what really got hit where the cyclical stocks, some

jonathan: wrote tom: road trip. -- tom: road trip.han: the uk2 allowed vaccinated residents to return without quarantine. if you live in the u.k. and have been vaccinated in the u.k. you can travel now. you can return without quarantine. here's the issue, if you are a u.k. residents and try to come to the united states directly you cannot,, that's the problem. we do not have a reciprocal relationship with the united states of america and this is the problem right now. from july 19 if you are vaccinated you can travel to europe, back to the u.k., no quarantine. my personal example, if i fly to the u.k. today before july 19, i would have to quarantine for a short while. i would not be able to fly back directly to the united states. i would have to find a third country and stay there for two weeks. what a fantastic time of the transport secretary of the united states this morning. why do we have no reciprocal arrangement with the europeans, with the u.k. ready to go for this summer to help out these airlines? the cdc told us the delta st

i didn't watch the first season, tom. tom: i don't know -- aston villa. jonathan: you're mixing up football clubs now. tom: i look now at jack, and he could go to richmond. jonathan: i think "ted lasso" would really develop the player, tom. let's move on. in the bond market we go, yields come in a couple of basis points on tens to 1.5016% -- your dollar just a touch stronger. euro-dollar, $1.1781. kailey: stronger dollar for a fourth day. at 8:30 a.m. eastern, not only is the first special programming on bloomberg taking us through that blue origin jeff bezos launch, we are also getting some economic data, housing starts and building permits for last month. how much are rising material costs weighing on construction in the residential sector? at 9:00 is when jeff bezos will blast off to space in that new shepard rocket, the first manned launch for blue origin. jeff bezos, brother, 82-year-old wally funk and an 18-year-old kid from denmark. quite the crew. finally, after the bell, we were just talking about it, netflix reporting second-quarter results. wat

tom: trey hollingsworth will not show up. as you mentioned earlier this morning, really with a sharp question on the heart of the matter, what is the fed doing to the american economy. tom: let us paraphrase, we are distorting the financial economy and in the real economy. is there a benefit? jonathan: what are the long-term benefits and what is the difference between 100 been billion dollars and 60 or maybe zero, and that is a question we have to ask at the moment. when we look at every single data point, can you show me an example of insufficient demand i cannot find an example in this economy right now. tom: i cannot find it as well. olivia rodrigo moving the needle. what i would look at is on the bloomberg terminal. the u.s. 10 yield -- 10 year inflation-adjusted yield. it is nothing that trey hollingsworth studied or that chairman powell has ever seen, it is an distorted economy. tom: where did that come from -- jonathan: where did that come from? i am going for it. lisa: to me, the biggest take away and from the testimo

jonathan: is that american football, tom? tom: no, hockey. jonathan: luke kawa, ubs asset allocation strategist, thank you. tom, are you disappointed after the fed decision yesterday? did you not get what you wanted out of it? luke: frankly -- tom: frankly, i thought it was a pretty successful meeting. i thought chair powell started off shaky and improved as the meeting went on. jonathan: up seven on the s&p. we'll get to the bottom of this and work out what is wrong. yields up by three, 1.2676%. you got a long weekend, haven't you? tom: i'm taking off tomorrow just to get ready for "ted lasso." you haven't watched "ted lasso" yet. you got to watch the first season. jonathan: it's going to be ok. we are up 0.2%. this is bloomberg. ♪ leigh-ann: the u.s. senate has voted to move ahead with that infrastructure package that happened just hours after a bipartisan group of senators and president biden reached an agreement on a $550 billion spending plan. lawmakers expect the final passage to last into the weekend and possibly even next week. fed ch

tom is recognizable. jon: tom encourages the recognition.ognition. tom: can i recommend that we send ferro to sun valley next week? jon: do you just went to get rid of me? what would you like me to do in sun valley? you want me to go to do yoga and go on one of those hikes? tom: you can do that. i'm sure there's a yoga session going on. jon: did you watch "succession?" tom: i've never watched it. jon: you really need to watch. they go to a version of sun valley. it seems to be a great time. romaine: there's a lot going on down there. tom: luck on the tv screens of finance, like "billions" and all of that, we've made an appearance. jon: on "billions," yes. i think on "succession" as well. the trailer for the new season is out. i believe season three comes out in q4 of this year. tom: and of course, as we look at the quality theater of "lien's" -- of "billions" and "succession," we've got to go to "love island." have you watched the new season? jon: i think it comes out next week, the u.k. version. season seven of "love island u.k." believe it

tom barrack is a very wealthy businessman. he was a top fundraiser for the trump campaign wu trump won the presidency, tom barrack became chair of the trump inaugural committee. the financial weirdness around trump's inauguration has been something that stood out from the very beginning. we covered this pretty dn intensively on this show. tom barrack raised more than $100 million for the trump inauguration. in context you should know that's way more than anybody has ever raised for any other inauguration. that more than doubled the previous record for what had been raised and spent on any previous inaugural, including the mammoth and historic first barack obama inauguration in january 2009 which brought more than a million spectators to washington and featured just about literally every single a-list entertainer in the united states of america. the trump inauguration in 2017 was not that. it had like a deejay guy who played electronic drum sets that would, like, light up and do special effects when he hit them. they had a grou

i called tom. i told tom, the door's locked.to me. >> reporter: and according to schrauben, tom called back within minutes with a backup plan. >> he told me his mom was going to go out that night and that they needed it to happen tonight because his mom can't take it anymore. he said, we didn't do it tonight, his mom was going to do it. >> reporter: they returned that night about 9:00. schrauben's stor by was he schrauben's story by was he dropped his friend off and drove around the neighborhood while his friend snuck inside and stabbed jack jessee to death. >> we had walkie-talkies. afterward he called when he was done and told him to pick him up. so i'm turning to go back. he had a little blood on his legs. we looked for a place to clean himself up. i believe there was a del taco place. there he went inside to clean himself up. >> the information he provided, if we could corroborate what he said, would blow the case wide open. >> t.j. garrick was questioned and denied everything. he said he wasn't in the car and he didn't kill

tom: wages. if people don't have the skills, they can't fill the positions producing about coding and the question of who is going to pay for retraining? tom: there was a phenomenal study done out of iowa 15 years ago on welders. the elasticity point is wage. they come out of the woodwork with wage. jonathan: 43 point while on the s&p -- 4312 on the s&p. all-time highs going into payrolls friday ahead of a long weekend. the coverage right here on bloomberg tv and radio. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> there is growing doubt there will be an agreement between opec and its allies. bitter infighting after a key member, the united arab emirates, scrapped the deal. that forced opec to postpone the meeting until today and could mean there will not be any increase in production. the imf predicts the federal reserve will begin raising interest rates as soon as late 2022. a washington-based fund said the fed will scale back purchases in the first half of next year. at last month's meeting, policymakers indicated

tom: from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. alongside tom keene, i am jon ferro. lisa is back with us next week. equity futures down 26. tom: too many people tell me monday is boring but it is not. the markets are fascinating. they scream global slowdown. john: back to where we were in february. it is not just the bond market. it is foreign-exchange and dollar strength in the mix. tom: i know we will get to that in a moment. so many of -- it may be a critical time to decide which way we go. jonathan: we have to talk about the airline stocks as well. travel in europe is getting hammered. kailey: it is not just the airlines. it is the cruise lines as well. carnival, norwegian. jonathan: the president of the u.s. said it could be several days before we find out what happens with travel. tom: on covid, i felt a seachange in covid. los angeles back to masks outside. this was an important weekend for the exhaustion of an 18 month pandemic. jonathan: your trad

tom: there will be a second look.ith a lot of the people , jon ferro mentioning neil dutta earlier. let's focus on where we are right now. dare i say there is a huge mystery to q4. nobody has a clue. jonathan: a lot of this has to do with how quickly some of the frictions get evened out. corporation saying it could be a long runway. these are the push and pull effects. tom: the news through the day on the pandemic and on masks. part of the conversation, "balance of power" at 12:00 noon with the senator from florida, rick scott. stay with us. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ (announcer) back pain hurts, and it's frustrating. you can spend thousands on drugs, doctors, devices, and mattresses, and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo, the ergonomically correct exercise breakthrough that cradles your body so you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body. since i've been using the aerotrainer, my back pain is gone. when you're stretching your lower back on there,

to tom's point of bit earlier, on what?he exception may be some long dated debt coming to market, which was a little bit messy. that is your bond market at 129.16. stability for once. 193 .80 on a 30 year yield. your attention will turn away from this bond market to the fx market very briefly in one hour and 15 minutes at the ecb. switch up the board to euro-dollar. euro-dollar, 117.87. we were one figure north of this point the day after francine lacqua's interview with christine lagarde. i would not have been interested in this meeting if it were not christine lagarde saying that we should pay attention because this one was somehow important. let's see how important that is when we get that information. tom: don't you agree with me that the german 10 year and k-swiss 20 year are acting differently than the u.s. 10 year? they have a life of their own. jonathan: i will bring up the italian 10 year in the next hour. just wait for that. that is the tees for 6 minutes time. it is the development with what has happened for the

thank you, tom.son, under a government plan to cut crime in england and wales. borisjohnson launched the programme on his first day out of covid isolation. it includes removing rules introduced by the former prime minister theresa may which made it harderfor police to stop and search suspects — and having a named officer for each local area. but the police federation said these were old ideas presented as new. daniel sandford reports. a dramatic arrest in london this year as officers intercept a man carrying two scorpion submachineguns. as the lockdowns ended, criminal activity has started up again — much of it linked to drugs. aware that crime is a high priority for the public, the prime minister and home secretary promised today to "build back safer" after the pandemic — with less crime, fewer victims and a safer society. what we are announcing today its plans to back the police but also to back the public so that if you are the victim of a crime you have unnamed police officer that you can go to,

tom: how cute. lisa: today, we will be getting earnings sun america followed by citi and wells fargo. i want guidance on potential loan growth among consumers and corporations. what are they seeing? we did not get that much except for hope from j.p. morgan that perhaps consumers would spend a bunch of their savings and actually start to lend again. they would be able to lend to the consumers who would borrow again. what we are not getting clarity in any way and goldman sachs did not provide that. 8:30 a.m., u.s. june producer prices. we will get the index reading after yesterday's data. i want to understand what the friction is for some of the industrial producers. what kind of price input, how high have they gotten, and how much will that lead to inflation in the bottom line in the consumer prices that we see as we talk about when you go to the store and you see the sticker price increase. you are not going to talk about transitory factors. at 12:00 p.m., fed chair jay powell will testify at the ho

tom: thank you.ook for that on "the close" this afternoon with all of the information from those conference calls as well. right now, ian lyngen joins us, bmo capital markets head of equity strategies. i am going to go to a single sentence you have which segments -- which suggests the demand for bills, notes and bonds, and that is the backstop of demand you see out there. to find that backstop. ian: -- define that backstop. ian: i think if we look at the primary takedown of treasury supply via the auction, we continue to see a willingness to underwrite treasuries, whether it is from domestic accounts, primarily banks and investment firms, or overseas, central banks in particular. these options continue to see strong sponsorship, and that at a minimum suggests there will continue to be a backstop of demand that isn't really going away anytime soon. it is less about whether or not there's a willingness to absorb supply and more a function of what levels will we see these takedowns. with 10 year yields

tom: no question. forward this conversation on infrastructure in washington, we are thrilled to bring you at 12:00 austin goolsby of chicago. former council of economic advisors chairman. stay with us through the morning on radio and television. this is bloomberg. ♪ te (announcer) back pain hurts, and it's frustrating. you can spend thousands on drugs, doctors, devices, and mattresses, and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo, the ergonomically correct exercise breakthrough that cradles your body so you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body. since i've been using the aerotrainer, my back pain is gone. when you're stretching your lower back on there, there is no better feeling. (announcer) do pelvic tilts for perfect abs and to strengthen your back. do planks for maximum core and total body conditioning. (woman) aerotrainer makes me want to work out. look at me, it works 100%. (announcer) think it'll break on you? think again! even a jeep can

tom: explain that. jonathan: there is an agreement on the federal reserve about interest rates and flexible average inflation targeting. that is much more of a dovish reaction function then we have over at the ecb. there is an agreement there. we have this very murky agreement over at the ecb, wary of just approaching 2% so-called symmetrically. i think that is different. the forward guidance has been agreed over that the ecb is radically different to the guidance that has been achieved and the framework shift, the reaction function shift, at the federal reserve. tom: and we have negative yields further negative in europe. we have less negative yields on germany and in switzerland. they have turned around and fractionally smaller negative yields. all of this a distraction for earnings season coming up. texas instruments yesterday, other names today, i believe intel and twitter. what have you learned about earnings season so far? kailey: i've learned that beats actually do matter this season. in quarters

tom: biblical. troy: managers that outperformed last year because they were long growth have underperformed because you had about a four month underperformance period. economic strength has been very pronounced. going forward, the industry is still overweight tech liquor growth, but a lot of these up -- overweight secular growth, but a lot of these value plays have >>. jonathan: how fragile -- have legs. jonathan: how fragile do you think this trade is? it upsets confidence people have about where they are on the equity market. troy: the sector rotation this year has been more critical than in the past. for five months you had significant underperformance of growth, so no surprise, cyclical managers, of which there are very left because of underperformance, they have very strong starts. last month, however, you start to see secular growth reinserted self. so you have a fractal damage between those -- a fractal dynamic between those. are they too over their skis in one factor or another? jonathan: wh