jonathan: what are you up to, tom? tom: it is the first trip out with afterthought. jonathan: i haven't got a problem with it. you will call me complaining, you know you will. about all kinds of things. of 22 on the s&p. advancing 0.5%. coming up shortly, the greek prime minister. tom and i have been meaning to catch up with him for a while. we look forward to hearing from him again. in new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: philippine president rodrigo duterte has signed a law taxing casinos, which cater mostly to chinese clients, according to a spokesman who says tax collections will be used for universal health care and to develop medical facilities. singapore's health minister says covid-19 cases in the country are rising faster than the government originally projected. the health official said the delta variant disrupted the country's plans for fully reopening. the biden administration is pressuring companies involved in the semiconductor supply chain to be more transparent as the global chip shortage continues to disrupt many industries. softbank is leading a $

tom: i will be out the last week of the year, thank god i'm taking five days this week. it has been a really twisted quarter. do you have a vision on q4? i don't. jon: i don't have a vision on november, october. it was really defensive with utility staples, health care, and in the mix, the dollar move got your attention, my attention. tom: it was elements of jump condition. you're up against a support or resistance. if you go further from here, that is substantial. jonathan: euro-dollar wants to take the d.c. mess? any takers? lisa: they are going to kick the can down the road to december. i think that is what we will see as they move the extension for the deadline to i believe december 6. they have to negotiate until then. i think that it will be very interesting to see if the house votes on the bipartisan infrastructure bill today. can pelosi get most progressives on her side to pass the other bill, written and sealed? jonathan: we can hardly wait. let's round out price action for you th

tom: thank you so much.ng up the pieces off the apple soiree this afternoon on open the close. -- on "the close." right now, matt hornbach has to synthesize global research at morgan stanley, head of global microstrategy, also -- of global macro strategy, also senior head of herding cats. it is greek to me and everybody else as well. you go to the heart of it. watch the fed. what is this distinction between tapering and tightening? matthew: thanks for having me on, and what i said way from jgb asset swaps into fed tapering. i think the issue for the fed is that when they are tapering their asset purchases, they are technically not tightening monetary policy. they are simply easing monetary policy by less and less with each subsequent paper -- each subsequent taper. the issue for the markets, in order for the fed to hike rates, they need to taper their asset purchases. so the first step towards rate hikes i asset purchase tapering. it doesn't guarantee that the fed will reach the end goal of actually tighteni

tom: maybe lisa.han: every company has their problems they're trying to work out and we want to be part of the future. lisa: we just did it, represented their view. jonathan: futures up five points. ♪ (announcer) back pain hurts, and it's frustrating. you can spend thousands on drugs, doctors, devices, and mattresses, and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo, the ergonomically correct exercise breakthrough that cradles your body so you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body. since i've been using the aerotrainer, my back pain is gone. when you're stretching your lower back on there, there is no better feeling. (announcer) do pelvic tilts for perfect abs and to strengthen your back. do planks for maximum core and total body conditioning. (woman) aerotrainer makes me want to work out. look at me, it works 100%. (announcer) think it'll break on you? think again! even a jeep can't burst it. give the aerotrainer a shot. pain and stress is the onl

tom: it is, and it goes with the calendar.old days, the kids went back to school the wednesday after labor day, and the world recalibrated the thursday after labor day. that is not true. it starts on a given monday mid-september, and that is where we are starting on this monday to get the wednesday fed meeting. jonathan: every single friday at about 10:05, tom and i go for breakfast together. tom sits there you tell me, what you doing this weekend? i tell you what i am doing, and you say i am going to watch ted lasso. "ted lasso" just taking home the emmys. tom: i have to watch it with the script on the tv screen because i can't understand 1/3 of the words. i want you to translate it for me. the guys in the locker room, i have no idea what they are talking about. this guy is from kansas, and that's all you've got to know. this is an ancient tradition, and the creative comes out of nowhere. that's is a lot. lisa: tom, why did you not wear the velvet suit? i was expecting a blue velvet suit. jonathan: what do we make of the stre

tom: no pun intended. [laughs] jonathan: i saw it in the "wall street journal" as well it i think you are being loose with the word "big story." lisa: [laughs] you have been out for a while. this is indicative of the feeling of where we were back in march, back in april, this feeling that we are going back in time, and i think that is significant, jon. jonathan: lisa, thank you. tom: jon, for those of you worldwide, jon gets lisa so riled up. [laughter] jonathan: hey, listen. a record big story. payroll, the range is still pretty wide, 600,000 separating the low and high come of the low b and 400,000, the high being one million -- hgh-- high, the low being 400,000, the high being one million. tom: again, the dispersion. jonathan: let's check in with roger bootle, chairman of capital economics. roger, if you wrote that book today, what with the title be? roger: i might attempt to call it "the rebirth of inflation." i probably would have adopted a different title. the title time, 1996i published it, the bund

tom: help me here. you hang on to every word of that conference and i'm looking at red sox baseball and i thought the whole thing yesterday was bizarre. it is a new level of splitting of hairs because of the political cards lagarde has been dealt. jonathan: they have reduce the pace of purchases but forecasting inflation way below target in 2023. so you either have advocacy problem, or you've got a credibility problem or both. that question wasn't asked to aggressively in the news conference. i think the ecb president got a little bit of a pass. tom: how far off is that that we will see on september 22 question -- 22nd? massive fiscal stimulus. david page has gdp coming down. i think it is data dependent. jonathan: what did the governor say? the market is pricing narrow outcomes. tom: when you get as old as me, you don't read anymore. kailey leinz reads everything and she brought me an essay and dominic wilson is dead on as the uncertainty goes up, everybody gets narrow on their calls. jonathan: the ran

tom: then what your target? have never heard you more optimistic. >> what's going on is the delta variant has put us in a position that i think we will set up a second reopening. it won't be as big as the first one but i think it's the same thing, bond yields have bottomed out and we are disappointed with growth and starts to pick up the yen. we have all these new employees that might come back in the labor force. i think we will have another good field maybe through year end. we are supposed to have a correction but i think it might get pushed out. lisa: what if we don't see a full on correction with a sudden spike in yields? what if there is a slope lead where the margin pressures start to increase like many are expecting? how realistic is that scenario? >> i think it's possible. if you look at some of the price surveys relative to wage surveys, prices can go up faster than wages. if anything, if you increase nominal gdp growth which is not really slowing down, that is so highly correlated with profitability.

gil or tom. did. >> coming up -- >> her husband or her lover? >> he threw me on the bed and he was tickling me. >> who would linda choose? >> hindsight, i think he knew probably about my body language just him knowing me as well as he did that he was losing. >> had she and gil been telling police the truth. >> maybe linda wanted tom out of the way so she could be with gilberto. >> no question. gilberto. >> no question ♪ [triumphantly yells] [ding] don't get mad. get e*trade. still fresh unstopables in-wash scent booster downy unstopables (vo) this is a place for ambition. a forge of progress. a unicorn in training. a corner to build a legacy. a vision for tomorrow. a fresh start. a blank canvas. a second act. a renewed company culture. a temple for ideas. and a place to make your mark. loopnet. the most popular place to find a space. when you really need to sleep you reach for the really good stuff. new zzzquil ultra helps you sleep better and longer when you need it most. it's non habit forming

tom: good morn

tom: it's a global system. i'm going to go to that and the tensions with submarines and where china ramifications go up the pacific rim to japan. i would not leave the japanese out of the discussion. kailey: we do have to consider that china represents 18% of global gdp. wednesday -- when china sees this, the rest of the world get sick. there -- there is -- that china will restructure, they also expect policy to ease in october to contain the ripple effects. you could have the regulatory crowd in the property sector, but policy could come into offset that. >> bad news, good news. tom: that does describe surveillance on a three by five card. jonathan: up 24 on the s&p, 56 of 1% on the bed decision day. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> london work culture and punishing work load is causing mental health to deteriorate. so far, they have not been working with the five euro veteran of the swiss bank, seeking 200 $73,000 in --. he said it was caused by stress in the london office. volkswagen struck division has become the la

tom: ok. there, but on a labor day where we are with all the challenges, 82% vaccinated over 65% --65 years old. jonathan: it goes beyond just trump supporters. minority groups as well -- there is a genuine and in some places justified mistrust of government, and actually it has spilled into this conversation. tom: they will do it differently in singapore -- look at the new headline -- it is a different cultural approach. jonathan: italy is considering mandating the thing as well. different countries omit different decisions. up three point -- up .3% of the s&p. would you like to sing to break, what is the number one country song? tom: ♪ feelings ♪ ♪ (announcer) the core is key to losing weight, getting back in shape, and feeling good. introducing the aero trainer, designed to strengthen your core, flatten your stomach, and relieve stress and back pain. it conforms to your body and increases muscle activity. abs, back, obliques, hips, and glutes. get incredible results in just five to ten minu

tom: help me out. i have seen more collective gloom in the last 6, 7, 8 days than i have seen in measures. where is the needle this morning? andrew s.: i am watching the bond market. i still say, last time i was on the show, i will be wrong is rates go back to 1%, but i am noticing yields are slowly creeping, creeping higher. energy prices are slowly creeping higher. that tells me that my fourth-quarter thesis is not wrong, but i will be wrong if this all rolls over. lisa: can we actually get any economic signal from bond markets that are so distorted -- distorted is perhaps a fair word -- influenced by not only the united states, but overseas. andrew s.: no question. no question. look at where rates are. stocks should be higher on a valuation basis. i think the stock market gets the gig that the fed has been buying bonds and rates are artificially low. just to be clear, if rates go up, i am not so sure it is great for the s&p, which benefits from this low rate environment, given the fact it is full of

tom: the news flow is extraordinary this morning. we are going to cram it into three hours of radio and television. i believe ferro will move it forward in clock hour. china is truly front and center. this is about tough economic data, and my litmus papers, the 30 year u.s. bond coming in nicely under 1.3%. jonathan: 2.5% against an estimate of 7%. tom: leland miller will say, can we trust the data? i think it is the trend of the data, and the trend is below 6% gdp, and that is a new china, never mind the overlay of everg rand and all of it. jonathan: we certainly taken some heat of this federal reserve going into next week. lisa: you are talking about cpi yesterday. i think one aspect that equity investors are focused on is the fact that ppi, prices of the inputs a lot of companies are using, arising much more quickly than consumer prices. this goes directly to the margin question and directly to the momentum in the economy. jonathan: i know gina martin adams is doing some work on that. w

tom: i less think so.nk as we heard from michael mckee and others, diversity is front and center and theirs are two geographies where they can easily affect diversity. jonathan: diversity abuse as well? tom: yeah conservative tilt to the texas fed. -- you have a conservative tilt to the texas fed. boston is its own interesting soup with all of the universities around. i have a great confidence the local boards will solve the issues washington cares about. jonathan: a lot of questions for chairman powell. that starts at 10:00 eastern. lisa: i wonder whether this takes pressure off him in the sense he has fewer questions to answer in terms of the ramifications for trading activity. i wondered stephen stanley will be right that the new fed, the new composition of the fomc will only be more dovish than what we have seen? jonathan: cap and you get more dovish than what we have seen? lisa: what does that mean? jonathan: all i know is the two hawkish dots go. tom: i was confused about boston university because th

tom keene playing politics again. tom: there was a debt ceiling, but i will go back. grew up in a house where there was complete panic every time the debt ceiling got up. i am more interested in the dynamics of 3.5 trillion down and what it means for tax increases, real and perceived by voters. my working number, you ready? none hundred billion. jonathan: what gets you there? tom: history. i read every word of a report. i cannot cite it here. the indiana redistricting and the re-peopling of the hard left of west lafayette and the two-minute drill is redistricting. lisa: if you are on radio, you are missing jonathan ferro's face as he is processing this. jonathan: usually when he brings up indiana, it is because he is in trouble with our manager. tom: it is the new madison, wisconsin. a liberal oasis in the midwest. jonathan: can we get back to this market? what does it mean? i have no idea. this is bloomberg. jonathan: what a mess he started for the trading week. this is bloomberg surveillance. here is the action. spilling over to europe. down by 1.46%. we are down by

tom: dr.ouriel roubini got way out front of that crisis into thousand five, seeing things up to 2007. a little window right now before we get to the present moment, there was you and i in davos at a hotel. it was a late night. we sat there and penciled out the reversion of the mean of the housing market. you said, it has got to end, and it did a year later, maybe 18 months later. bring us forward now, that we are so debt encumbered. do we have the degrees of freedom we had when you and i sat at that quiet bar in davos? dr. roubini: my concern is that we are in a debt trap, not of fiscal dominance, but one central banks essentially went to phase out unconventional monetary policy, therefore they will be in that debt trap and unable to normalize policy rates. that is why you see inflation. tom: i am so honored that you are here. this is a guide to talk to. from greenspan over to this new debt crisis now, how do you interpret the outcome of this buildup in debt, which is life at the zero bound? d

tom: good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters in london. i'm tom mackenzie. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." decision day, investors await any changes to the ecb bond buying program as rising bureaus energizes the hawks. mobile stocks fall amid fears of a recovery slowdown. the fed says the delta variant hit u.s. growth in july and august. china's regulatory crackdown continues. tech shares take a beating as gaming companies face oversight. inflation searches to a 13 year high. it is the ecb we want to focus on. i want to bring your attention in terms of real yields on high-yield bonds in europe. as a result of that enormous balance sheet held by the ecb, those real yields of high-yield bonds are in negative territory. that 3% inflation picture, you get negative yield in the high-yield space. that talks about the reach, the lack of yield as a result of the oversight ecb balance sheet. will that change to any degree? will the middle move at today's meeting? is this a bet by investors that the inflationary picture is more transitory than hawks are suggesti

tom: good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters in london. i'm tom mackenzie. this is "bloomberg: daybreak europe." japan is set for a new leader. the prime minister plans to resign after just one year in the job. the nikkei jumped. opportunities in china are too big to miss despite the crackdown, we will bring you our exclusive conversation. it is jobs day, another banner report could push the fed closer to tapering. the dollar is mixed after another record on wall street. the fed and jobs are in focus, but the political story of the hour is this news that the prime minister of japan will be resigning. he will not be running come september and not in the general elections later this year. the reaction on japanese equities, a leg higher, the belief that the unpopularity of mr. suga and any placement could prove positive. fiscal support is something we will dig into shortly. let's check in on the markets broadly. mse i asia-pacific is up after a positive close. -- msci asia-pacific is up after a positive close. the nikkei up 2%. the yen is at 1.10. a broadly neg

tom: how does she know that? jonathan: she's a machine, tom.m in the "surveillance" nap by then. jonathan: a dangerous man. i mean, come on. bears everywhere agree with senator warren. he a dangerous man. let's get you some movers this morning and say good morning to a very nice man. good morning, romaine. romaine: a lot of people looking for safety or you keep an eye on shares of alphabet because there's quite a lot of -- because this caught a lot of people's attention yesterday with the drawdown we had in big cap tech stocks. alphabet caught a lot of people's attention. this had been one of the most persistent stocks out there among the big cap tech stocks. it had been on a persistent uptrend going back to early january. that broke down yesterday, without the bet closing below its 50 day moving average. it is higher in the premarket by about 0.9%, but still below that key technical marker. a lot of people saying this will be a barometer with regards to big tech, much more so than apple or amazon or even netflix. netflix shares are higher this

tom: tell us about that. michael: no change at all despite tom's best efforts.ould think there would be a little bit of again given the way things have been going, but it does fit with that narrative that people stayed home in august because of covid. we did not see any hiring. tom: john, jump in with the market reaction. jonathan: it is a shrug and the equity market. push it through the bond market. a little but of a lift on the treasury curve, yields up by two basis points. 1.32 on tends, 30's at 1.88. how do you compare and contrast that? it is a strong beat for august. tom: might answer to all of this is on retail sales, the control group is what the pros fall back on but does the control group work in a pandemic? michael: it does. basically the control group takes out things like auto sales because they are reported in the retail sales figure as a dollar number. sales of autos go down as business investment in gdp. they took this things out and gasoline we take out because it is so affected by price. not much this past month. the other one we should mention

♪ tom: good morning. i'm tom mackenzie.his is bloomberg daybreak: europe and these are today's top stories. stocks and u.s. futures hold steady. guggenheim's scott minerd him warns the fed may hold off on tapering due to risks over the debt ceiling. quarantining at home, astray this most popular state eases travel rules. the fda is set for a crucial decision on booster shots. plus, watch for anything spooky in markets today. it is triple which, and goldman sachs estimates $3.4 trillion of equity options are set to mature. and we have a terminal chart that shows that volumes are near their highs for the year as we lead up to the u.s. close and that triple witching feature around options and futures in equities and the index space, as well. goldman sachs flagging options in terms of shop -- stocks of around $3.4 trillion. what this tells us about market sentiment will be in focus. volatilities the name of the day when it comes to the play through into the equity space. let's check in on the markets across asia. you're seeing

tom: what do you think? jon: we caught up with, he said all it would take would be a change in the probabilities. pretty much everyone is forecasting no change with the ecb. tom: i look at three moving average studies and when the three averages come to a point, that describes stasis. we are not there yet, jon, but give it a week or two. jon: it is the story of the bond market. good morning to you all. we will try to make it a little more exciting as the show progresses. yields pretty much where they were last friday and the friday before that. equity futures down. a little bit of a lift in the euro. lisa: it has not been the most exciting week. this looming credibility crisis among policymakers. it all depends on policy. that is what we are looking at. this goes with respect to monetary and fiscal policy makers. the fda panel is meeting about vaccine boosters, whether to recommend everyone get vaccine boosters. pfizer says, everyone get vaccine boosters, we also make them. some scientific advisors from the

tom: we are allowed to pause. lisa: thank you, tom. tom: we will get through it.are allowed to pause. jonathan: this is great therapy. lisa: therapy for us. tom: the fed meeting, forget about that. i'm way more worried about revenues and earnings than that. jonathan: are you, tom? on what side of things are you more worried about revenue than earnings? tom: do you know what, that is a beleaguered question. my brilliant answer right now is i guess i'm more worried about revenue because that is not what the pros are worried about. they are worried about earnings. jonathan: bouncing back after five days of losses. up 6/10 of 1% on the s&p. tom: two shots. two shots. jonathan: this is bloomberg. >> policy for the most part looks like it is going to be somewhat benign. there's no fears of taper from the ecb or the fed. >> they won't do it in september, i don't think. i think they will announce in december that tapering will start from january. >> we are in a place of strategic ambiguity. >>>> we know for a fact every time something goes wrong, we come back with even mo

tom: that was great.athan: only on my radar because of glenn juncker and, formerly of -- because of glenn youngkin, formerly of carlyle. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ baaam. internet that doesn't miss a beat. that's cute, but my internet streams to my ride. adorable, but does yours block malware? nope. -it crushes it. pshh, mine's so fast, no one can catch me. big whoop! mine gives me a 4k streaming box. -for free! that's because you all have the same internet. xfinity xfi. so powerful, it keeps one-upping itself. can your internet do that? jonathan: live from new york city for our audience worldwide on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market advancing 16 points on the s&p. economic data in america drops. here is michael mckee. michael: we have been waiting for good news on jobless claims and we do not get it. they went up to 362,000 from 351,000, the unrevised number. the revised number -- it was not revised. in in cleese -- an increase in jobless

tom: you sound like lisa.han: lisa speaks the truth sometimes and sometimes you have to agree with them. lisa: sometimes. [laughter] jonathan: tom keene has come after you on twitter, have you noticed that? [laughter] tom: let's get away from the gloom and say you can't all be in cash. anthony ross -- anthony roth joins us now. let me picked up on what john said. you have an international cast and we have a rally that continues in some way, what does that mean for asia and pacific rim? anthony: it is good for asia and pacific rim. they are providers in commodities. that provides sources of revenue and profit for them. i think that is good for pacific rim and asia overall. you have a weird situation in china which is 50% to 60% of the market cap in that part of the world and they are marching to the beat of their own drummer now. whatever happens in china affects the overall scenario from a commodities standpoint. higher commodity prices are going to benefit. tom: your claim for the management of quite money, y

tom: let's go.is fair to say that, but i will point out that at the end of the day, companies need to be staffed and this is a delicate consideration for them. i got that. jonathan: equity market down 38. your bond market yields higher. up for basis points. -- up four basis points. later today we will hear from jay powell and secretary yellen. this is bloomberg. ♪ it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours? ...delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat. xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today. (announcer) the core is key to losing weight, getting back in shape, and feeling good. introducing the aero trainer, designed to strengthen your core, flatten your stomach, and relieve stress and back pain. it conforms to your body and inc

tom: good morning from bloomberg 's european headquarters. i'm tom mackenzie. this is "daybreak: europe." ecb policy makers sparring over ending stimulus amid a rise in inflation. stocks are mixed as we position for the u.s. jobs report. chinese taxpayers some gains as ride-hailing companies come under criticism. we will hear from president xi jinping. opec plus sticks with plans to supply hikes. perspective from -- of energy aspects. i want to bring your attention to the positioning of two of the biggest, most important central banks. a terminal chart showing what is happening, in terms of a yield differential narrowing between the pboc and the fed. when it comes to the benchmark, the u.s. 10 year and chinese 10 year. chinese 10 year 280. the u.s. 10 year at 130. not near the 70 highs we got earlier for the u.s. 10 year. but those of you coagulating coming to the idea that 150 is what you get come the end of the year. china is different. pboc pumping about $40 billion to $50 billion into its banking system to support sme's. that is playing into the bond space.

tom: yeah.on't know if it is october or january, i don't know, but my major issue this weekend is the three of us have to decide our strategic plan to be financial influencers. this is something i have been studying. jonathan: i saw that story in the bloomberg this morning. some of them are making some really decent money. are you going to charge for content? tom: i don't know. do i do a cooking show? jonathan: i think you have to tell people why the best path forward is to stay in cash. every single meal that you prepare, you just finish by saying stay in cash. tom: that is good. i love it. jonathan: i don't know if you need any qualifications to make that investment advice. tom: which pub are we going to? jonathan: from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: live from new york city for our audience worldwide, heard on radio and see on tv, i am jonathan ferro. rounding out the week with a marginal week of gains into friday morning. equity futures down three points. negative almost .1%. into t

tom? tom: thank you. coming up, u.s. consumer confidence fell to a six-month low ahead of the august jobs report due late they are week. more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: welcome back, this is bloomberg's "daybreak europe," concerns are back after u.s. consumer confidence fell to a six-month low, ahead of the key august jobs report late they are week, on friday, which is expected to show a deceleration from the rapid employment gain in the prior month. wellem sels is still with us. how do you position around the erosion of consumer confidence in the u.s.? >> actually the reading from the conference is not a surprise. we obviously had the michigan university reading last month that already showed that decline. also above the neutral readings as people feel improvement. nevertheless the market doesn't seem overly concerned at this stage. consumer discretionary stocks are improving somewhat. they're not leading all the other sector, they're improving somewhat. so obviously you're going to have your ups and downs

the euro, tom, stronger by 1/10 of 1%. tom: is it just a so what?athan: i think there is more than a so what going on there, tom. equity markets, jack, i've tom: bad is the crisis -- tom: how bad is the crisis fatigue in washington and at the white house? >> i'm not sure that there is as much crisis fatigue in washington as you might think. the biden administration came in very prepared to deal with crises. i say that not as a value statement, but they knew they were going to have to aggressively approach the pandemic. the actions in afghanistan are a direct consequence of the plan to pull out of their. between a presidential election in the first midterm, the republicans are very, very willing to play up any crisis that may help them in 2022 and afghanistan clearly appears to be one of those if you look at the response to the polling. so, there's not really crisis fatigue but more of a willingness to amp up importance of any crisis. as for the hurricane, i don't really necessarily see crisis fatigue. we haven't really seen congress having to act to

tom: the global head of strategy. let's talk about the dollar, and the real break out of the past 24 hours area is chairman powell a dangerous man. >> i think you summed it up well saying that senator warren. tom: look at the dollar strength. you are an expert at summing it up altogether. from a continental europe perspective, what is the character of the dollar strength. elsa: that is an interesting question. what was unusual about yesterday was the bond and equity joint set up. we used to be in that environment but we are seeing a positive environment for the u.s. dollar, even against what you typically think of. tom: let's get back to 101. is this a relative interest rate, or is this about flow of capital? elsa: both clearly mantle -- matter. you have to think about how much money european investors have piled into the united states. you can see it increase over the past year. we are in an environment that creates downside on the dollar. this is a global environment within sp set up. capitals are the key. lisa: is

tom:f course, all of this to the fed meeting and what it means for the stock market. if you are getting out of your car on bloomberg radio, stay in your car. if you are in the living room and going into the kitchen to get a glass of tang, don't, because anna han is coming up with the sharpest note wrapped around that economic data. it is the way they get there. they have the acuity that is really unique. jonathan: lisa, one of the big bulls on the street right now going into year end. lisa: everybody is sort of expecting maybe a little softness, and even the people who had previously been a little more bearish are getting more bullish. even the bears are buller bears then they were before. the narrative is not changing for people depending on the data. it is really just what your view is going forward. jonathan: tom is having a great time, lisa. he's enjoying the week. is flying by for him. not flying by for me. jonathan dollop of credit -- jonathan golub said, why do we need to get a corr

tom? tom: thank you. coming up, just markets get defensive as growth concerns return.e discuss more coming up. this is bloomberg. tom: welcome back. this is bloomberg daybreak europe. let's check in on the european futures. you may get some more aggressive tapering than some had expected from the e.c.b. we will see if there is an announcement around reducing some of the purchases currently. futures in europe looking lower. a solid day in europe. maybe a bit of profit taking here. in the u.s., essentially flat. we have a new record for the nasdaq yesterday. morgan stanley cut u.s. tech equities to underweight. investment strategisteama and northern trust management is still with us. what is your view on where things stand with u.s. equities with morgan stanley and bank of america, are they right to be sounding the warning signal at this point? >> we don't agree with that stance at the moment. we are a little more optimistic. we still think the recovery will continue. in the short-term, we're transitioning interest the recovery growth to more organic growth. lots of vola

tom: dutta is cynical. jonathan: good take, though. interesting. tom: it is.ked up the greenspan battles from when greenspan was reappointed. it is all the same. lisa: did you actually think it was in question whether republicans would vote for confirmation? was it ever an issue? jonathan: it might give more republicans a little more cover. lisa: he was nominated and put there by president trump. jonathan: he is a republican. lisa: anyway, carry on. tom: right now, ben laidler with us and jay pelosky as we switch over to fixed income, ira jersey , running fixed income strategy for bloomberg intelligence. we are coming up on $1.5 trillion. worry that, worry long-term, were a short term. which part of the yield curve right now matters to ira jersey? ira: i am looking at the five year and the seven year sector because that will really get a clue as to how far the federal reserve will ultimately hike rates once they do. watched that for clues as to if the market is really worried that the fed is getting behind the curve and it is going to hike much faster and furt

jon: head to the gym tom. tom: i think pharaoh had to be medicated late. jon: i turned it off after 20 minutes, that is the truth. getting ripped apart, really tough. for anyone that remembers 2005, there was an infilling -- infinitely superior football team to liverpool into a dozen five and liverpool came back with this big comeback from 3-0 down. congratulations, liverpool. well done. [laughter] tom: this is the one day all year pharaoh can call it that. jon: why do that now? futures down six on the s&p. unbelievable. down a little more than 1.5 -- .1%. i need more than a tank right now. the division around the outlook for me is fascinating. i know it's for you guys as well. this was from hsbc this morning. the girl close slowdown is real but expectations are not yet incorporating that efficiently. as such, we retain our outlook on cyclicals. we compare this to j.p. morgan, despite concerns about the recent downshift in economic and business cycle momentum, we remain confident strong growth ahead -- of strong growth ahead. tom: maximum divide wrapped ar

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tom keene meditating. tom: i've been listening to ed shearon. jonathan: what did you call it, warmed up coldplay? lisa: oh boy. jonathan: in the fx market, the euro showing a little bit of wood. euro-dollar -0.3%, $1.1775. lisa: i've been particularly interested in what is going on in the crude market. we have this dissonance between stockpiles going up in the united states, while we have lower demand evidence result -- lower demand as a result of the delta variant. we are bidding the opec monthly report released anytime now. how do they view the drawdowns and inventories in the united states, that are now the lowest since 2019? it is the first day of public school in new york. i'm watching how we people actually return and what it is like. just 65% of new york city 12 to 17-year-olds have been vaccinated. the first hedge fund conference to be held in new york city versus where it is normally held, and las vegas. the discussion will be going forward, what is the future of hedge funds that now have more than $4 trillion of assets under management

tom: it's been choppy. what i would note, even with the equity recovery of the last number of days, the vix still near a 22 level. there is still that choppy tension as we go towards the new quarter. jonathan: euro-dollar, a break of $1.16. the weakest euro we have seen going back to july 2020. strongest dollar we have seen all year. what underpins that move? tom: i'm going to suggest i don't know. finally, what is underlining this quarter is how quiet this has been. jonathan: how well anchored is this move? how durable will it be? lisa: i'm going to provide a potential narrative at my absolute peril. i think it is fascinating to see you move up the stronger dollar, higher yields in the 10 year, and weaker equity performance . how much is this a quantitative easing unwind trade? this to me as one of the questions as we watch real yields rise to the highest since june. jonathan: equities risk off, bond yields higher usually positive for the u.s. dollar. luke kawa of ubs is going to weigh in on that, and then

when we think about abbott's, tom? tom: i never got it. the lyrics are deep. jonathan: how did you record so quickly? tom: abba is not perfect, but she is lovely. he is going to go in there and talk about mr. kaplan and trading of debt ets. but he is going to do everything he can to get through this, maybe calibrate in a hawkish way . they need more economic data. i am not going to look at the dots. jonathan: i will go straight to the dots later. any communication around separating qe and rates could be disrupted by the dot plot later this morning. you're going to sing us out? futures up 25. yields 1.3294. tune in for the rest of the day. we've got abba. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> that u.k. government is set to provide limited financial support to restart production of the country's biggest plant. the food industry had halted because of high natural gas to costs. government has also met with domestic gas and power supply. u.k. is said to be looking at the u.s. free trade agreement between the u.s., mexico, and canada. it is recognition that the biden administrati

tom: serious stuff.will be at different venues around london, and everyone descends upon the dorchester bar . they put drinks in your producer. they have a number love. they scaled back. but all drinks that producers have have an umbrella in them at the dorchester bar. this has been researched. jonathan: i am not sure where you're going with this. i think the three of us at lme metals come of the three of us in london. to see the tots. jonathan: wouldn't that be great? i'm sold. [laughter] in business, it's never just another day. it's the big sale, or the big presentation. the day where everything goes right. or the one where nothing does. with comcast business you get the network that can deliver gig speeds to the most businesses and advanced cybersecurity to protect every device on it— all backed by a dedicated team, 24/7. every day in business is a big day. we'll keep you ready for what's next. comcast business powering possibilities. wanna lose weight and be healthier? it's time for aerotrainer. a m

tom: thank you so much.lways important on jobs day to speak to the chief economist with morgan stanley. it is ever more important on the american labor economy and our gdp call. ellen joins us now. let's do the labor economy first. we just had a very cautious call from td securities. what is your statistic? ellen: it's not that exciting. it is 725, which seems to be in line with consensus on bloomberg terminal. we put exciting". in the midst of the upside or downside is what has us excited. tom: i want you to fold them into the uncertainty you have of an august slowdown. this labor report, the labor report for september we will see in the first week of october, how do you adjust those. >> basically, you have to disconnect the two. we have made a very sharp markdown to growth in the third quarter. it solidified when the motor vehicle sales came in. it was the fourth consecutive declined. it was pulling demand forward when we got the stimulus checks in march. basically, this is not a jobs story. it's a payback

tom: this is critical.ave stocks that are perceived as having revenue growth and there is a wall of stocks, hundreds of stocks where the revenue growth is not good enough. what do those companies do? gina: they have to manage their costs. what we have experienced in this recession is anomalous relative to past recessions. it is almost impossible to manage costs when the labor market has recovered as fast as it has. we might start to see tax increases adds to cost pressures, reducing overall margins as well. companies are forced to manage costs. they have to lean on technology. they have to find ways to create greater and greater market share gains. maybe they merge. they find ways to make up for that added cost pressure. tom: they need synergy. jonathan: looking for a merger in north london. i doubt it would be a merger of equals right now. here is a quote from morgan stanley. based on our economic forecast, this spread should decelerate incoming quarters, which suggests margins should contract, not expand.

back to tom's work about china -- tom: kaylee, shut up. kailey: sometimes you criticize me for talking about your age, sometimes my compliments don't work. jon: you criticized tom about his age? kailey: i haven't but he always things i am. jon: this shows going to be great. from new york city with tom keene over in greenwich and kailey leinz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom: greenwich, connecticut. jon: i'm aware. i did not think you made it to england this year. tom: we are not at gmt. jon: greenwich, connecticut, tk. you made it out there. dirty eight on the s&p, up .9%. this is your bounce back on the yield coming i couple of basis points yesterday, up a couple basis points today, and later, we stay on top of the global story and catch up with lawrence boone of the oecd, the chief economist. from new york city and greenwich, connecticut, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news i'm ritika gupta. prime minister justin trudeau in canada one a third term but fell short of getting the majority he was seeking. that mean the lip -- means

tom? tom: ok. coming up on the show, lots more to focus on, including the inflation debate and commodities, what is happening in that space. we will break it down for you and bring you discussion and analysis from martin malone. this is bloomberg. ♪ manus: it is "daybreak: europe." tom mackenzie is alongside me. japan's nikkei 225 on track for its highest level since 1990. hong kong and china have wavered as traders evaluated the troubles of the ever grand group. -- ever grand -- evergrande group. we are joined by martin malone. there are protesters outside the institution. good morning. martin: i think basically this will be a social issue. xi has been very vocal backing the social agenda. literally the politics, the social side, the sort of ideology of president xi will basically come to the forefront and way behind that is the market, investors, companies and some of the protests we are seeing. tom: what does it tell us about the distorted economic incentives in china and whether any progress ha

tom. tom: thank you very much indeed.p, we will look at your stocks to watch including unilever as the company looks for a buyer of its two. -- tea business. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: welcome back to the open, everyone. nine minutes from the cash equities open. the futures in the ftse are pretty much flat. we actually had a great chart looking at some technology stocks in europe. evaluations in terms of multiples, higher than the u.s. and we could look at a correction when you look at some of the technicals as well. let's get straight to your stocks to watch this morning with sam from our equities team. quite a lot going on with asml. >> it is quite a messy picture today. yesterday, the european tech sector had its worst session in nearly 11 months. we have asml raising their guidance today but overnight, we have micron, a big u.s. bellwether. disappointing with its forecast and some inflation out in japan about the demand forecast. very messy picture. not quite sure which way that sector is going to go. tom: ok. nex

tom, what has changed? mike wilson of morgan stanley, "price is the most import determinant of people's behavior. price gets you to focus on the things right in front of you all along. it is priced its changed, and price since the narrative." tom: at the other side, the bulls look at technology. what was was an opportunity yesterday, but you've got to pull a trigger given the fear. i failed. i couldn't pull the trigger. tom: you couldn't get out of jonathan: -- jonathan: jonathan: jonathan: you couldn't get out of cash. let's see what jason draw hope -- jason draho has to say, ubs head of america's asset allocation. how long this will take? jason: it might be along the line of four to six weeks. we have to get through the evergrande situation. we have to get through the fomc tomorrow to see is the fed going to be a little more hawkish, or do they toe the line. we get to the debt ceiling. over the next two weeks, we see a lot of potential headline risks to get through. until we come clear of those hurdles, i

tom: nicely said. a guy back to 2007, an incredibly long 10 year, with wisconsin phd in economics. it has been an important voice. let's link him away from his illness and serious issues with a kidney transplant with mr. kaplan of dallas. what is your reporting, particularly with the national so season for business economic dynamic meetings -- business and economic meetings, going on right now? michael: probably some pressures internally, but the problem they have is that this was all cleared by ethics officers. they all passed in advance, so it wasn't what they thought they were doing some thing wrong. the appearance is bad. obviously, people will make their own conclusions about whether or not there were any profits made here. there is an internal investigation at the fed. the question is, does that internal investigation turn up anything? you never know with internal investigations. tom: the president of brown university, every regional board has that local constituency. who holds the decision-makin

tom: lisa, what is years? lisa: eating at a restaurant, but also the fact that labor is costing a lot more, and the lack of labor available to the restaurants. they are all understaffed, and the prices have gone way up. tom: tk complained about the service has well. lisa: i'm not complaining about the service. but every waiter who comes up and says on the only person here, waiting on all these tables, it happens all the time. tom: anecdotally, we are leaving tables and sitting more at ours just because you can get better service. jonathan: i'm not sure that is right. i'm not sure that is a post-pandemic change. tom: let's do the data check. futures, negative four. dow futures, -36. the vix still above 19. jonathan: nasdaq futures negative a little more than 0.1%. yields higher by a basis point or two. in your hasn't done much since fed chair jay powell spoke at that virtual conference in jackson hole, wyoming. going into inflation, 26 minutes away. tom: we are looking at the dollar flat. i thought that was ver

tom has been tallying that. tom: less than 2% drawdown.sy wing see correction. -- teensy weenys correction. the lady isn't tapering. that's an elton john lyric. jonathan: the lady isn't tapering? tom: it's an elton john lyric. it was after madman across the water. jonathan: you are making stuff up again. tom: he did that in the trident studio in london. jonathan: live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) back pain hurts, and it's frustrating. you can spend thousands on drugs, doctors, devices, and mattresses, and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo, the ergonomically correct exercise breakthrough that cradles your body so you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body. since i've been using the aerotrainer, my back pain is gone. when you're stretching your lower back on there, there is no better feeling. (announcer) do pelvic tilts for perfect abs and to strengthen your back. do planks for maximum core and total body conditioning. (woman) aerotrainer makes me want to work