tom: do you prefer that boys? that was a deep -- do you prefer that voice? that was a deep fake. irst commercial product launched in 2020. i think francine prefers the deep fake. francine: it was a smooth voice. tom: there was a caramel essence. these guys are leaders in the space and they have raised a lot of money from google ventures. we are joined by the ceo of synthesia, victor riparbelli. why do we need big fakes in the commercial space? victor: what we see in the online world today is video audio has become the default. that causes a big problem for companies because recording video is time-consuming and expensive and does not scale. tom: don't tell our bosses that. victor: what we see here is not replacing video production but replacing text. our customers use this for training. instead of having that done with slide text, now we have a video which is a better format. francine: the caramel voice. you have made my day. my tom mackenzie can speak spanish. can we have a look at that deep fake? tom: [speaking spanish] francine: gracias, tom. tom does not speak spanish. tom: i

a blunt. tom: oh, that is a blunt. [laughter] jonathan: that's what people tuning fork, a bit of a bond market and a bit of a -- lisa: bluntghter] tom: our next guest joins us now. we can go to physics of cambridge and look at 14 topics. i want to look at the one true thing here we are focused on is your ecb. you have provided huge research over the last decade on ecb. what does lagarde do, is her degrees of freedom so shrunk down that she has limited choice april 14? >> at this stage, they will be doing little. they are setting up for normalization coming further in the year. i think what gets interesting is what they do further out. the margin is pricing hikes and it is clear that's the direction of travel but question is how far. do we just get to zero stocks, do we go any further than that? unlike the u.s. where you have strong domestic demand, and europe, it is a bit of more about inflation without much strengthen the economy. tom: how do you respond to the certitude they will raise rates, begin to raise rates or get out front of raising rates to keep up with the fed? elsa: they're not going to keep up with the fed an

tom: a big day for big tech. it's a big day and microsoft, we love to talk about apple and twitter and google. do we talk enough about microsoft? jonathan: and it's a heavy weight on that particular index. tom: no question about it with the cash filled up in the transfer from the original management to the new management stuff it's been a giant success story. they will separate the stable haves. jonathan: twitter will report earnings later this week. i wonder what those earnings actually look like whether that's a factor in accepting the offer from elon musk. tom: john kessler will be with us in a little bit. maybe the conference call will happen this afternoon. jonathan: we've got an agreement about price of $54 billion. can we close this transaction? lisa: shareholders have to sign off on this. you on musk will have the equity position but will he share it? he wants external investors, will he get them and how does he finance this? jonathan: cost of the debt as well. a lot of people have said moral crusade may be movi

this is who submitted an application . motor vehicles well, after all, tom, we are not the president of hooliganism, we will not a-aan actions, but, after all, tom a-a, activists and people who are really already starting to annoy and similar fascist propaganda fascist propaganda a-a add er-e demonstrate on the territory of a-a occupied crimea and sevastopol what is against and there is against and-y there is a part of the population that a-a shows its struggle in such a-a way eh-well the question is possible a little naive , but extremely important in fact. how do you feel about the changing moods of the interventionists in crimea and the collaborators and the population that they used for the colonization of crimea, because we are talking about hundreds of thousands of people, and they now understand that crimea is temporary occupied territory and soon it will return to the control of the authorities. well, first of all, i want to remind you that there are more than 600,000 russian people who came to crimea. they have a different social psychology. they don't know what it is . ukraine and the ukrainian people, an

a weak euro. do your reading of those headlines, what is a buyer? jonathan: is it a country, a company? tomdon't know. jonathan: i'm -- i don't have the detail on this and a lot of it does not make sense to me. tom: i think so. for clarity, what do we do? talk to annmarie hordern, our washington correspondent. then all of your work in london, what does brussels do? what does brussels respond to this specific news of poland and bulgaria? annmarie: they are having a meeting today. we heard from ursula von der leyen -- i guess it is a first step. she is calling it black male, on what they are doing. what we see is putin using energy as politics. putin never lets a good crisis go to waste, and that is precisely what he is doing. he is getting ahead of it. you look at the europeans talking about sanctions, coal they were able to do, now there is murmurs about oil, but they remain silent on natural gas. this was always going to be the most difficult. putin is getting ahead of them and making good on his threat that he has been making for weeks, which is if you are not going to pay for these suppl

a small violin. tom: i had a nightmare. can you imagine the damian cam? start with a slide rule.han: everyone can select which camera they would like. the 'bramo cam. need someone a bit more bullish in the mix. take your pick. we will get a picture of the trading floor at j.p. morgan. lisa: marco. jonathan: get the marco cam. futures negative one point -- -0.1% on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) enough with the calorie counting, carb cutting, diet fatigue, and stress. just taking one golo release capsule with three balanced meals a day has been clinically proven to repair metabolism, optimize insulin levels, and balance the hormones that make weight loss easy. release works with your body, not against it, so you can put dieting behind you and go live your life. head to golo.com now to join the over 2 million people who have found the right way to lose weight and get healthier with golo. >> we are living in a world of 6%, 7%, 8%, almost 9% inflation. >> it is too early to sound an alarm bell on a recession over the next year. >> it has gotten much harder to forecast. >>

had a look to make sure the number two value meal was a cheeseburger. just a fact-check. it is a quarter pounder with cheese. tomamend it to two cheeseburgers. jonathan: i still don't believe that you go to mcdonald's. tom: the trick is you order without catch up so that you get fresh cooked burgers. jonathan: that's good news. i will try that one in like 10 years. tom: you and me, london. the liverpool station. jonathan: once and only once with you. we are never going back. this is bloomberg. lisa m: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm lisa mateo. president biden plans to deliver remarks today on support for ukraine as the end looks to send congress a proposal for weapons and humanitarian aid for ukraine that would last through september. the proposal would include funds to help remove landmines and combat food insecurity. european commission president ursula von der leyen is warning companies not to bend to russia's demands to pay for gas in rubles. they have turned off the taps to poland and bulgaria in a dramatic escalation. that made good on a threat if rubles we

in the most of it, tom is in a - because it's a small set. it, tom is in a spider suit, so he is all cg~ _ most of it, tom is in a spider suit, so he is all cg. they— most of it, tom is in a spider suit, so he is all cg. they are _ most of it, tom is in a spider suit, so he is all cg. they are throwing i so he is all cg. they are throwing around _ so he is all cg. they are throwing around cars~ _ so he is all cg. they are throwing around cars. sometimes, - so he is all cg. they are throwing around cars. sometimes, the - so he is all cg. they are throwing. around cars. sometimes, the entire frame _ around cars. sometimes, the entire frame is _ around cars. sometimes, the entire frame is cg~ — around cars. sometimes, the entire frame is cg~ so. _ around cars. sometimes, the entire frame is cg. so, what— around cars. sometimes, the entire frame is cg. so, what we _ around cars. sometimes, the entire frame is cg. so, what we had - around cars. sometimes, the entire frame is cg. so, what we had to- around cars. sometimes, the entire frame is cg. s

a bull on growth because of growth concerns. it trades a lot of speculation. how do you gauge on a longer-term view? tom: i'm going to do a demand dynamic here. gold up $21. $1967 an ounce. lisa: especially given the fact that bitcoin, and i know you love bitcoin, is falling to the lowest since march 22. i love when people say why. tom: because kailey is on the show to talk crypto. [laughter] lisa: there was a big conference in miami having to do is crypto assets. people were saying the reason why bitcoin is down is because the sugar rush is off and the parties are over, which i find kind of hilarious. tom: talk about our three hour effort, crypto with kailey leinz, how's that going? kailey: doing great. 1:00 p.m. tuesdays. we will be talking to sam backman freed tomorrow. it is going to be interesting. bitcoin is related to the broader theme we were seeing in the markets. usually it trades in tandem with other risky assets and increasingly with technology which is coming under pressure as we see real yield sitting at just -13 basis point. tom: what do i say? she has so drunk the kool-aid. [laughter] li

that is a lot of hiking for an ecb over a little more than a year. tom: even more original commerzbank wrote that they made clear that the ecb is way more difficult than the fed. i thought it was a very terse note and deutsche bank with some very strong language as well. the answer here is that we are going to stagger day by day through this along with ukraine, and the answer is what lyle brainerd mentioned, it is original monetary policy they are committing. jonathon: i put that deutsche bank quote on twitter. can you imagine the amount of pushback that i got, tons of it. lisa: they are not alone because the ecb is facing inflation that is frankly the fastest pace that they have seen in decades and they are seeing this crimping growth. how do they respond to that? it seems hard to imagine at this point. jonathon: that is the main focus of this program, what does it mean for your market. team coverage on ukraine starts right now. let us start with you, these sanctions efforts, where are we this morning? maria: well, we are about to get an official approv

there's a lot less oomph from a wage perspective. tom k: i channeled my inner porcelli aple of days ago ended the wages and benefits adjusted for inflation, and the wage decline we are living has been much longer than the one a number of years ago. what is the duration wage growth that matters? tom p: you are seeing it show up in the confidence numbers. we were talking about this a month ago. the thing about confidence numbers and why they were falling, it was not this idea that they were worried about economic growth or recession. today might be different. but they were worried because of inflation. you saw it show up in the confidence data in a pretty meaningful way. i think that is one of the most important points about what is happening from a confidence perspective. higher inflation is eroding confidence. that has been true now for many months. jonathan: i want to come back to you in just a moment and pick back up on the twitter story because the twitter ceo is tweeting, "i am excited to share that we are appointing elon musk to our board. it became clear to us that

tom: china's 6.37 is immovable. is there a chance a goes like the sri lankan rupee? >> no. help me! >> i'm just making a joke. if you look at debt gdp in china, it jump to the highest since 2020. if you look at leverage in the world's second-largest economy, it does not bode well. they have to make payments on $92 billion of debt. that is a lot of money they need to come up with. lisa: when you talk about how it was not necessarily a good luck, we still had outperformance when it came to the official gdp numbers. you think chinese officials recognize the degree of stimulus will be necessary in order to get near their growth charter for this year? damian: they do not care. if there is one thing we have seen from beijing is the thoughts and views of investors are the last things on their minds. the interesting thing about the differentials on the board, if you look back over the past 3 years we have seen investment into the chinese local bond market. now that those yield differentials have flipped in favor of the u.s., that is a pretty big deal. we have heard a lot about the

a bit of hawkish in this driving markets at this juncture. we think we will see a rate more conducive of equities. it's a relative call. tom: we are looking on the bloomberg terminal with some reveling in emerging markets indicated by currencies. you grew up with a phd at the house of bernanke at princeton where he believes financial stability is everything. from your view at blackrock, how financially stable is em right now? >> em is a big stays -- is a big space. you have a complex story playing out. the commodity story is playing out. these are very distinct forces. it turns out here in an environment where rates are still pretty low they started earlier and were ahead of this and i think that provides more resilience. that's why we seem to be overweight em and that continues to be attractive in this environment stop lisa: how can you look at sectors at a time when people are talking about specific idiosyncratic stories within emerging markets? when you look at oil's versus financials or consumer discretionary and how are you surgical at a big firm at a time when people are talking about security selection? >> this envi

tom: they may not show a 5% mortgage rate, but there we are with a new high mortgage rate. nathan: it is going to hurt a lot of people. tom: it is tangible now, certainly the talk was a new york city as well. this is a joy because if you grew up in the plains of kansas and you go east over to washington to the foreign service of this nation and truly serve for decades, that describes the former ambassador to india, robert black will -- robert blackwill, who joins us now. thank you so much for joining today. you alive at this moment are the defenders voice -- the definitive voice on the hope we have of force reductions in europe. you were there not in the 1970's, but in the 1980's. the warsaw pact and the allies trying to figure out how to calm europe down. that world has been turned upside down. tell me how the allies do a mutual and balanced force increase in europe against mr. putin. robert: first of all, the most important change, and it is a stunning change as you forecast it, has been this very robust european reaction to the bloody invasion of ukraine by the russians,

a messy session and yesterday morning was pretty decent. crude is down 2% today. morgan stanley upping their forecast. on a much worse supply outlook, that's their call. tom: this has been the back story this week. there was auge miscalculation of oil demand. tom: jonathan: demand is likely to recover more slowly than we anticipated. we now see a greater deficit. tom: this is the micro economic foundation of all this. emily, the president speaking of the contribution of the united states. is anybody else ponying up the size of money of the united states? emily: that is major news out of washington from yesterday but it's also the additional amount we will see the white house request in coming days, asking congress to approve that additional funding. we don't know how much that is but we know there is still that strong bipartisan consensus in washington to move additional funding for ukraine. 1.3 billion dollars, 800 million dollars for weapons and technology and that will include a different kind of weapon that reflects the changing nature of the invasion in ukraine. tom: early in the week, we had a chart that showed how lonely the u.s. was in ponying up money, am i wrong on that? is europe ponying up milli

that is now a style, to take your fathers shoot is at -- fathers suit as a child and put it on. tom: he had ay suit on, double-breasted. jonathan: like 50 sizes too big. kailey: and a pink beanie. jonathan: that's right. tom: did i get what? jonathan: do you understand the trend? -- in head office, no inside information on this. they are having a laugh, laughing their heads off as people go around wearing the stuff. jonathan: live on tv and radio, this is bloomberg surveillance. price action shaping up. the s&p up 0.2%, the nasdaq of 0.33%. for the month of february, looking back. later this week, the minutes to watch according to chairman powell. he told us if you want ideas, clarity, detail on balance sheet reduction, look to the minutes on wednesday. tom: help me why the matter. jonathan: apparently, we get detail on balance sheet duction. that is what chairman powell said. the ecb has accounts that the last meeting. whatever that means. that would give you the ecb account. tom: they need the bramo- account. jonathan: i would love it. a really interesting research note. you say, the recess

a global lens. tom: delta airlines with a boom delta airlines economy. lisa: everyone wants to travel and get out there. when you look at what is out there, there is af threats. chicago futures return to their highest, talking about that. tom: been watching that, eight dollars per bushel would be something. lisa doesn't know i know what a bushel is. lisa: i see. tom: bank earnings this morning. from washington, this is bloomberg. ♪ loomberg. ♪ at xfinity, we live and work in the same neighborhood as you. we're always working to keep you connected to what you love. and now, we're working to bring you the next generation of wifi. it's ultra-fast. faster than a gig. supersonic wifi. only from xfinity. it can power hundreds of devices with three times the bandwidth. so your growing wifi needs will be met. supersonic wifi only from us... xfinity. tom: bloomberg surveillance. good morning. a very special morning from the headquarters of the international monetary fund, timely conversation with the managing director of the imf. it is a bank earnings time, also a time of ecb. we heard from wells fargo, goldman sachs in any moment. sonali, what do you see? >

a rate hiking cycle before. for many people they have not seen a rate hiking cycle like the one we are about to see. tom: i think really are the only ones in media loving -- talking about aar market. how may people have seen a -8% drop in bond prices? jonathan: you mentioned paul volcker and i think the quote of the week on paul volcker came from lael brainard who said "40 years ago paul volcker noted the dual mandate is not an either or proposition and runaway inflation would be the greatest threat to the continuing growth of the economy and ultimately to employment." that is the situation the doves find themselves in. it is not an either or. lisa: one of the unspoken questions a lot of people have is if consumers show resilience, then why not allow inflation to run hotter? if it is not crimping growth than why not go past the 2% threshold the fed has clung to for so long. jonathan: they've been beyond 2% for a long time. coming up on the portfolio, geraldine sundstrom. looking forward to that. this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping up-to-date with news from around the world with the first word. ukraine's foreign minister says his agenda is simple. he wants nato to give his

it always fascinates me to see such a well researched name like netflix, so heavily researched, so well talked about, have a move of 35% on a given day. tom: he's getting me in trouble on a daily basis. it is like we are married. jonathan: just say what you think. tom: just say what i think, yeah. ok. i think a lot of very courageous people for two or three years said wait a minute. dan ives is coming on, and his colleague absolutely nailed this. there's no other way to put it. i want to talk about something out there for the optimists. the wonderful 100 page energy piece yesterday, and his note i sang in energy marshall plan is what we are going to see. that is the same as david landau talking about the capital investment that will be required in europe given the change in this war. these are huge investment responses which typically have good financial outcomes. jonathan: deutsche bank in the meantime telling everyone to prepare for a hard landing. tom: i am talking the bigger, broader that you just heard from brent schutte right there, underpinned by let's do it, let's get going. that is what you hear from j.p. morgan on energy demand.

a smarter man than me. twitter is trading at $48. this could be a gap opening up. the wrong way. tom: there is different numbers there. i have seen numbers as high as $700 a share on tesla as a margin call. i have seen numbers at the $500 level as well. i don't know where that number is today, but boy did he get partly there rapidly. jonathan: it is about $5.30 in the equity market, lisa. lisa: whether this deal will actually get done, much less what the consequences could be. jonathan: sebastien galy joins us now, nordea asset management. i remember back in 2016 when we saw a 1.03 handle. your thoughts on what is going on here? sebastien: it is an interesting conflagration. you have the dollar strength which creates momentum, the appeal of the dollar as a safe haven, the cluelessness of the market who does not know how to trade rate differentials as small as between the u.s. and eurozone. in the big shock is really this conflict in ukraine, which probably will last quite a few months, and we might get wilder and wilder moves. we are starting to see that from the russians. they do not have the logistics, they do not have the production. ukrainians are pla

a tactical move to try to stop the supply lines from russia to ukraine. remember, this is a countries -- a country completely surrounded by russian troops. tomming from crimea, let's move west there. is this a week where russia takes the black sea coast? maria: that's what they're hoping. this is what ukrainian officials fear the most. it is something russia has been after for 10 years now, especially strategically. if they take full control of the black sea, ukraine is isolated in words. tom, there is now this impression very much in europe today that putin once victory day fast approaching. remember, the ukrainians have said that if there are referendums, very similar to what happened in crimea, done in ukrainian territory, that is the end of peace talks. lisa: meanwhile, we heard about tony blinken visiting kyiv. there were talks we heard about from zelenskyy. and i what those work? annmarie: zelenskyy said they were fruitful, which bakes the definition of that. it was going to be military assistance, not just ukraine but others as well. a lot of that will be earmarked for kyiv. $165 million of ammunition, as well as the fact that secreta

the expectation is for a 5.5% hourly wage and these year-over-year. palm, on a guilt -- tom, on a real basis they are still lagging behind inflation. the manufacturing front is interesting at a time we have covid rolling off but then the influence from europe. at 9:30 we get u.s. auto sales. how much do we start to see ongoing weakness? people have already bought cars. prices have come down from the accelerating pace in terms of how quickly they've been driving the used-car front. the expectation is for the worst quarterly decline in auto sales going back a decade, just to give you a sense of what we are looking at. at 10:00 ism manufacturing at a time when we have dueling factors. covid is ending. on the other hand you're getting pressure globally because of what is going on in ukraine and what is going on in china. covid is not over there. we saw the biggest decline in private manufacturing in china back to the heart of the pandemic. jonathan: let's talk about what is happening with china for the stocks listed in the united states. alibaba in the premarket is shooting higher off

a while. it is probably more of a story for late 2023 or 2024 as a legitimate recession risk to the united states. tom: the first thing i read this morning was off of your age and affects desk with jp morgan really making clear, japanese yen is a global indicator on a path to weaker yen and a 130. your colleague in crime at deutsche bank it's extremely worried about strong dollar and the depreciation of selected currency. you agree there is a risk here with chairman powell's policy, that we could see an descendant or resilient dollar that forces depreciation, devaluation, and currency protection by other nations? >> i certainly think there is a risk and i am a buyer of a young that continues to stay under downward pressure. let's first recognize the dollar, even through all of the turmoil and for the fed moving in a hawkish direction on its rhetoric, is staying pretty much in a narrow range year. we have moved through the last three to six months. that is a reflection of the fact that the fed economy has been benefiting from the commodity price surge and there is also a significant amount of tightenin

a look at a $96 handle comic $97.27. tom: blackstone to buy ps ps business parks. it does not end. jonathan: dealmakers are making deals. elon musk is aealmaker. the offer is $54.20. there's a conversation about a deal -- about a deal getting done as soon as today. he is still looking for co-investors. tom: 28 million square feet in the ps business parks. dealmakers are doing what they do, they keep going. jonathan: did you just do that again? the square footage? tom: 28 million total square feet. jonathan: the voice? tom: i cannot do that again. andrew hollenhorst will save us. the chief economic density group. there is a phillips curve, now there is the andrew hollenhorst curve, which is a certain number of interest rate increases. where on the curve does jay powell become restricted? andrew: a great question. thanks for having me. that is what we are seeing. fed officials trying to find where that restrictive point is. we have had a concerted shift towards the hawkish direction and inflation continues to run strong. you're looking for a point where the economy slows down. we have mortgage rates higher, above 5%. maybe that will slo

a read on gdp, but on thursday we get gdp for the first quarter. it is going to be with a 1% handle. tom: really? powell will have a below 2% in the march gdp? l: and how nervous are the market's going to be about that? jonathan: mike mckee, thank you, buddy. equities still down 0.3%. tom: durable goods, you take a three month moving average and move on. michael mckee will do that through the morning. this is a great joy right now. michael mayo joins us. to say he is senior equity analyst at wells fargo barely describes his contribution to bank and financial security analysis. long ago and far away, i met him when he was at credit suisse on one of his journeys. that was fractious, to say the least. he joins us this morning with perspective on citigroup and the jane fraser challenge. let's look at the ratios, and they are a little bit apples to oranges here, but i've got a citigroup price-to-book of 0.55 off of bloomberg. jp morgan shining bright at 1.44. mike mayo, i'm sorry, credit suisse, and i get it, it is a different calculation, is 0.40. fortress fraser is pretty much on the cusp of being a credit suisse. mike: well, there is a chance t

a case of covid at the moment. the good news is there is a disconnect in a way there wasn't a couple of years back between cases and hospitalizations. tom know. the urgency in europe is greater right now than in america. i don't know why but you look at the maps. there is a greater tension there. jonathan: let's pick up on the fact that jamie dimon watches ted lasso. jamie diamond watches ted lasso. tom: wait a minute, that wasn't in the letter. jonathan: i could show more gratitude. tom: is that chelsea blew the same as the j.p. morgan blue? jonathan: i think it's similar. tom: one single sentence, we are not a conglomerate. that's the single most important sentence away from behavior in the letter. jonathan: we get distracted by things like mentioning ted lasso. what matters here for the banks and shareholders is just how poorly the call went after earnings on the new expenses, the new spending and how productive that spending would be. tom: does he mention the senator from the commonwealth of massachusetts? no, but he says our problems are neither dimmick attic nor republican. he says he does not want crony capitalism. jonathan: they

a resumption of some of the problems? twitter has been problematic for a lot of people. tom: you did not get aing from anybody in washington on section 231, which is codified here in new york, which is i am not allowed to tweet during "surveillance." very important. section 231. tell me about the biden white house. it is getting to that point where the game starts about should i stay, should i go. where is that ballet right now? joe: cedric richmond is about to go, but it is to the dnc. there's a lot of question about what happens to jen psaki, the press secretary at the white house, who had signed on, we had been told, for a year. a difficult position to fill, and i think that is why the white house has been slow walking her visual departure. all the cabinet secretaries seem to be in place. even marty walsh is hanging. -- even marty walsh is hanging in a hotel in washington even though he might prefer to be in boston. jonathan: what do you make of this with the press secretary, that in all likelihood there might be a broadcaster who i won't name this morning who's planning a show for her? joe

tom: a more important conversation that it was 24 hours ago. he has to massage aegative gdp statistic wrapped around, as tom porcelli suggested, two of the five quintiles flat on their back. jonathan: uncomfortable moment to explain. negative growth and inflation at multi-decade highs. amazon, the big loser on the day. on tv and radio, this is bloomberg surveillance. ♪ lisa: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, i'm lisa mateo. let's get to first word news. president biden has broad support from congress for a massive $33 billion ukraine aid package. lawmakers could finish work by may 9, but if democrats assist on attaching funding for coronavirus vaccinations and treatments to the package, action could be delayed indefinitely. officials in china are defending the covid zero strategy as the best way to fight the pandemic. they say the outbreak is coming under control with cases in shanghai showing signs of turning around. the lockdowns have been criticized for existing -- exacting heavy social costs. potential money laundering case at deutsche ba

a recession or a growth session. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom: good morning. welcome to a monday of jump conditions. kailey leinz is in for jonathan ferro. it is not a normal monday. there are jump conditions. lisa: is being led by the federal reserve expected to respond to them. the 10 year yield shocking, the real yield heading that much closer to zero as we move towards potentially a normalized fed but restrictive fed. tom: in our travels to washington for the meetings of the international monetary fund, what is important is the correlation of movements. today japanese yen ever weaker. lisa: it has been shocking. yield not just in the u.s. but in europe and it is now a race to see who can tighten most quickly and restrain inflation at a time when a lot of the inflationary pressures on the war in china -- the war in ukraine and with china. tom: the structure's of the weekend, the masters over the weekend and the french election. what is fascinating to me is how washington responds particularly to the threat of further war in ukraine. kailey: we know president biden will address that with india, spe

a neutral country, they are concerned about the humanitarian crisis in ukraine. how much does this shift to a more aggressive stance by a lot of european nations? tomthis is important because austria has the huge weight of russian energy. this is a real nuanced change. lisa: especially given the fact that they continue to buy oil and gas. this is one of the main points of contention among foreign ministers meeting in luxembourg today. president biden is meeting virtually on zoom with indian prime minister narendra modi. how much is their increased pressure to really get some of the quiet allies to speak up and declare which side they are on, given the fact that we have not heard anything decisive and aggressive out of india, basically castigating russia for their war in ukraine? tom: i will try to get this story out on twitter. reporting from india from bloomberg news, really lays out beautifully the nuances here of china, india, and the united states, and india and russia as well. there is a real complexity to this story. right now on the complexities of all of the economic babble we talk about and what does it mean actually to construct strategy,

seen in the past is something that is a former fed official who said when a number comes in as a surprise it usually gets revised in the direction of the surprise. toma greater negative statistic? michael: we could see a greater negative statistic and that will be a concern for the fed. the reason the bloomberg's economic people call it a pothole is consumer spending held up. i am taking a look at the nonresidential fixed investment, which is basically business spending. that was up 7.3% after a 2.7% rise. consumers were spending. the big issue is what happened with exports and inventories. tom: that is the heat of the matter, the back end of the gdp question, with all of the currency dynamics, when you or matt luzzetti look at this is a mystery on import and export dynamics, right? michael: is not a mystery because we know at least a rough approximation of the inventory numbers. those will change a little bit but they have improved the reporting time on that. the change in inventories, 34 point $5 billion lower. that subtracts from growth because inventories built so much in the fourth quarter. tom: mike mckee will dive into these numbers and we wi

we have a euro that stronger by a half of 1%. tom: atle bit of a lift in the euro this morning and a time of huge disruption in the uncertainties we face into the month of may. jon will address the ecb and i will introduce philip lane. there is no wetland at the fed with the inaugural chief, must in germany. this is considered a key position in global economics. i want to go back to a paper you did from trinity to harvard years ago. you did a paper on economics and the scientists and engineering of it all. do we throw the textbooks out now? can modern engineering work given this moment? >> i'm familiar with that paper that i can't take credit for it. the basic question is still very relevant. it's a lend of respecting the signs of the textbook and we live in the real world where we have to understand the actual data arriving and come up with policies that work in the real world, not just in the textbook version. jonathan: let's talk about the real world and the data this morning. the rising core inflation comes in at 3.5%. how worried a

tom: thank you, lisa. [laughter] lisa: i will give you an out. jonathan: a picture of tom keene in the evening after ameal and a lot of drinking. tom: my word. did you hear that mom let's not? it was a certain tone. [laughter] let's not. jonathan: the alpha price, $54.20. tom: let's quote the dow. jonathan: let's not. tom: let's not. [laughter] jonathan: this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. bloomberg has learned twitter is on track to reach a deal with elon musk on the $43 billion takeover offer as early as today. still the talks are set to be fluid and a deal could be delayed or fall apart. twitter had previously considered supporting that attempt. u.s. secretary of state antony blinken and defense secretary lloyd austin met with ukraine's president volodymyr zelenskyy in kyiv sunday night, the highest level visit since russia invaded. the u.s. promised ukraine more military aid and said they cannot attempt a repeat of the war. in france, voters have given emmanuel macron a second term, winning more than 58% of the v

tom: this actually happened to me on a play a couple days away. i had to do this, take the martini -- jonathan: and then take the mask off. tom: and then take another sip. there's a lot of new stuff going on, -- serious stuff, including the war in ukraine, but this is "surveillance." you need to watch this morning. amesh adalja will join us and tell us what to do. jonathan: well, he will tell us about the science, because ultimately, we will do whatever we want. uber joins the club, the only place in new york city where i still have to wear a mask that ends today as well. the announced it on their website just moments ago. tom: and pandemic that's now migrating under 500 a day, which is constructive. i want to go to japanese yen. it matters. all sorts of people writing this today, carl weinberg really tearing apart the treasurers -- treacherous moment for the yen. this we bounce back to chairman powell. he cannot ignore a ¥1.28. jonathan: 13 days of weakness against the u.s. dollar, record street, going back to the 1970's or something. 1.28 is a bi

a nazi, it is the worst of insults. we really have to stress this. they think it is a war that is fair and completely valid. tom: i've got to ask aestic question because we are international this morning with everything going on this morning. is joe biden a lame-duck president? annmarie: oof, tom. let's see what the midterms deliver for this democratic party. also, let's see if he's going to come of the bedtimes will decide -- the midterms will decide. if you have a red congress, there's going to be a lot that is difficult to get through. potentially the international sphere will be they only place you will see legislation in terms of more support for ukraine. but after that, yes, two years it will just be constant infighting within parties on who will take up the mantle for 2024. jonathan: precisely. i wonder if that is the deeper question you are asking here. are you asking about the term of the midterms or whether or not who is running in 2024? tom: i think it is all wrapped up together, and i think the nation with this inflation is tangible. the weight on them is getting way out front of the politicians and the zeitgeist and

a projection from this company of -2 million. that is a massive spread between where the street wise and where this company is projecting. tom: any number of people taking a victory lap. wedbush, and of course, michael nathanson, who may join us later this morning. right now, somebody who absolutely crushed this call -- neutral forever, like 2.5 years with a recent underperformance, but flat out, he is basically never said by necklace. timothy nolan is joining us. out of london, with j.p. morgan. he is the australian shop. tim nolan, what did you see on october 2019 where you said run? tim: we had a buy rating on netflix going into the time when the steering war really got underway way. -- underway. we downgraded to a neutral around the time disney plus was launching. the rationale was simple and it is coming to bear very clearly, which is more competition from major content analysis, going to record the consumer, it will keep the pressure on netflix. it takes away from their ability to add subs as progressively as they did for years and years, and it will raise the pressure on content costs. we have seen all that come to bear very clearly, especially in

a softer landing a very difficult task. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. you are watching us or you are watching netflix, down this morning. right now, a little bit of a bounce. we are going to retest that crater at -28%. jonathan: we were down 22% after last quarter's earnings, and here we are again. this time, a letter to investors saying this growth company is going ex-growth. tom: tim nolan from macquarie, never had a buy on it. i love what dan ives said, it will be about the haves and have-nots this earnings season. traditional media will be there and i will look at mourner discovery, their work on billions of dollars. help me with this energy, with the fed, the real yield actually what positive. lisa: they should welcome this. we have been in an abnormally suppressed environment, but how much higher does it have to go in order to be restrictive? as we are hearing increasingly, they are looking for some kind of restrictive policy. if they don't get that in place, what happens to inflation, given that expectations over the longer-term have climbed? tom: how do you perceive in the credit market the path to a restrictive reality, qua

point to a risk of a 10% drop in the market, someone with a large fund, a long time horizon would tell me that might be a problem for some but for me it's an opportunity to load up. tome you loading up on amazon this morning? >> no, i don't do individual stocks. jonathan: that was a good effort, tom. great to catch up with you as always. let's go through the headlines in russia. they have inflation north of 16% and they just cut rates to 14%. the bank of russia is seen the key rate reduced further this year. for some who suggest that the decent measure of pain the country is going through, perhaps suggesting not much. they see gdp in 2022 falling 8-10%. they had growth that 2-3% and that is a monster revision from the central bank of russia and i imagine a lot of people believe it will go lower. tom: exactly, which interesting is how you define this word pressure. there is an academic study of what that means. these are recession numbers, down 5%, now 7%. 25%, down 30% gives you an indication of what the gloom crew is talking about in russia. i will not say we will get there but that's the scope and scale you need. jonathan: this is the dilemma, massive downside risk

a lawsuit, put some questions around the authority of the cdc. that's the potential downside to this. tom: joe is just fresh and perky this morning. after patriots' day in boston, he has a lager beer wrapped around him. he is way too chippy. jonathan: awho did not run the marathon. tom: i thought about it once. explain that hill in newton. >> heartbreak hill. it's not too late. people do this late in life. we can start a couple months of training together. we will be the last to arrive late in the dark of night. tom: pharaoh is going to be pushing me in the cart. jonathan: can you do that voice again? is that your ex and at the end of a marathon -- accent at the end of the marathon? we got you the average age of the senate. just for you. 62 point nine years. average age of parliament in u.k., a little more than 50. tom: ok. i don't know. i like what joe manchin -- joe mathieu said. it's like washington and wall street. i like what joe mathieu said about term limits for chairman and chairwoman. jonathan: that's a mistake i made. are you bringing it up from yesterday? tom: the last time jon ferro made a mistake was six weeks ago. can you get me that? jonathan: are you suggesting the president is too old? tom: i'm not suggesting that. i

a doctor and serving the community. you see, dr. tom's guidance fueled with me a passion for social justice, a passion i lived as a premed student organizer in ucla -- at ucla, and it's with dr. tom's encouragement that i applied to harvard medical school to earn my medical degree and graduate with my masters in public health and masters in public policy from harvard university. i am forever indebted to dr. tom for his love of dough vogues for my -- devotion for my growth. he was always there to motivate us, to celebrate us, and to give us a smile when we needed it the most. he gave us a family, a familia, where we found reassurance and strength. all graduates share a common bond because of him. and to this day, when i meet a fellow graduate, we reminisce about his kindness and grace. we said goodbye to dr. tom just last month in march, 2022. however, we know that his legacy will live on in each and every one of us. and we know that his memory will survive in the hearts of his beloved wife, dr. lily, his brother, ray, his children, evelyn, patricia, and tom. and all his wonderful grandchildren. together we mourn his passing and celebrate

a recession with a hatzius overheated job economy? jonathan: thanks to you, i actually had a lot of people on the coast reach out to me. [laughter] tom: you and i are seeing a 40 degree chill, and ferro is watching the sunset -- lisa: you know what? not anymore. good to have you back. [laughter] jonathan: futures down half of 1%. yields up by a couple basis points. the 10 year, 2.85. lisa: honestly, that is amazing. if you look at size and scope, that is the highest since going back to 2018. it is be driven back. -- an 8:30 a.m. call. this comes as you see stocks on the banks fall to the lowest going back to march of 2021. we have had a whole round trip, despite, as you were talking about, we have been getting this curve that is actually steepening in the yield space. does it indicate a certain pessimism or is there something else going on? frankly, a lot of people are asking that. 10:00 a.m., housing market index, this will be interesting. we are seeing it come off the highest levels on record going back to the 1980's. this comes as homebuilders look at higher prices across the world and a lack of conviction if they do not build. if

a hard spot that the ecb is in this year. tom: what do you see in the data screens that matters? jonathan: this bounce is not a convincing month. we all got up this morning, saw a move on s&p and nasdaq futures around 1%, and now we are up about a third. apple and amazon coming up tomorrow. tom: we try to speak to people that are truly in depth on a given topic. if you studied german at harvard, that prepares you to arguably the top investigative reporter at wall street. greg farrell has done this at the financial times and for over a decade at bloomberg. his story was definitive 10 years ago. are you surprised to see this legal action against the founders of archegos? greg: frankly, no. given the events of last year, we were all over this. it was more of, can the prosecutors figure out a way to figure out what the charges would actually be? they were looking to exploit a couple of legal avenues. jonathan: can we go through the charges? an instrument of market manipulation and fraud, that is what they use the company for. the other allegation, they artificially inflated the portfolio from $1.5 billion to $35 billion. explain when acquired leverage is illegal an

tom: when does the housing idiocy break? jan: i think it will slow. i think a lot of the weakness we are going to see, a of the slowdown will be a decline in demand. supply is a much more significant constraint. tom: i agree. huge issue. jonathan: that is my gift to you going into the weekend. tom: that is good. jonathan: it is a special friendship you and i have. tom: i am more interested in -- jonathan: we have the australian grand prix, looking forward to that. we have the big game on sunday. formula one. and we have the masters as well. that is what you are still calling on australian airline. tom: we were polite. we did not ask if he agrees with deadly. good form. lisa: i think i did ask. jonathan: pretty sure lisa asked. tom: she was delicate. jonathan: you two are so low without me next week. have fun. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, i am ritika gupta. the war in ukraine is entering a new phase six weeks after putin launched the invasion. ukraine may have weeks to obtain new weapons for eastern fighting in the country. dozens of refugees were killed

a basis point. what a move we have seen here yield up around 30 basis points on a 10 year p euro-dollar little -- 10 year. euro-dollar a little higher. tomlad you mentioned it. i think we have underplayed the shift we have seen this week in yield as witnessed by yield inversion, back up to something less inverted. the 10 year real yield has been underplayed by all this week and has come back. jonathan: with the exception of one person. at least has been on for take as we get -- tick for tick. lisa: it has been driven by real yields. we are still negative but the idea that inflation-adjusted yields of the highest they have been going back to early 2020 puts it into perspective. tom: all the more reason to tune in with jonathan ferro on the real yield. it will be a uniquely inspired program. tina fordham is with us. we are thrilled she could join us after a strong debate over what the west should do. tina fordham, i can say in all my years of doing this, to have john bolton saying will washington get over it, they are not going to start world war iii. and alanna farkas saying, working with president obama, they are not going to start world

language to find out how old it is and what it was for to be us out inspects the amulet in an x ray tom a graph. a for him martin as the instead yeah, here we're installing a specimen between the x ray source and the detector. that's the glass. it's the same kind of radiation you get in a dentist office when config gooden. i landings. however, here we rotate the specimen around in the beam of theos austin of ink. that gives us the transmission picture from a variety of angles. garcia, it's that we see the specimen held in the beaker and the dark spots we can see are probably iron. so it's hm and that's what we're as durcan does as does vessel synthesis, daniels bomb and felix hunter from the berlin sousa institute for applied mathematics and computer science are also involved. the computer program they've developed makes the ancient script visible without having to unfold the amulet, then it's fit on the next step in determining if there really isn't a writing on the piracy is the unfolding or unrolling step. that's for that. we've developed a module that allows us to go through to piracy layer by

a day for six months. that, we have already seen prices come down as a result of that announcement. that will have a major impact in the oil markets and energy markets writ large. tom: what is important, this filters down into every product, including a slice of pizza. it is up come up, up. jonathan: you're very delicate about a slice of pizza in new york. tom: i think it is as important as a gallon of gas. jonathan: it is important. you called on congress to make companies pay fees on wells with leases they haven't used in years and acres of land they are hoarding without producing. they keep talking about 9000 leases. i don't think that if you had written this he would have wrote that. if i asked you the following question, i want a direct answer to a direct question, of those 9000 leases how many are on productive land? amos: i will answer a direct answer, but let me say on the slice of pizza price that i agree prices are going up everywhere. part of that is as a result of the skyrocketing energy prices. we are not a farm to table economy. we are a farm to truck to table, so everything that we consume has resulted in a gallon of gasoline or a gallon of diesel, t

tom: it is going to be a big deal. jonathan: i think it is a wonderful thing. at a turnaround for him. tom: what i am fascinated by, and i am not an expert on this, but what is fascinating to me is tv is still beholden to tiger's showing up. that is fascinating to me. jonathan: you heard dan ives mention scotty scheffler. do you know who scotty is? tom: i do not. jonathan: number one in the world. he's the guy with momentum coming into this. they are names you don't know. you need the names everybody knows to get the broader audience, and that name is always tiger woods. tom: fascinating to me. i will talk to paul sweeney about it in my other property today. jonathan: 10:34 eastern time, tiger woods. looking forward to it. for our audience worldwide, heard on radio, seen on tv, futurist at the little bit positive. this is bloomberg. ♪ if you're a small business, there are lots of choices when it comes to your internet and technology needs. but when you choose comcast business internet, you choose the largest, fastest reliable network. you choose advanced securit

a mistake. they are breaking the news that he is a suspect, not just a person of interest. abc is now saying that. tomat is an important revelation, to say the least. this is your fault, shelly, the immediacy of modern news is appalling and we correct as we go. >> that is correct. it adds to the anxiety of keeping people on edge. this is not a city that feels at ease, at the moment.

pullback, we may be able to navigate not necessarily a soft landing, but a very brief dip into negative territory. tom: there you are, two days in a row. dr. piegza, thank you so much. i was shocked by the word transitory. i wax poetic. transitory, oh transitory. remember when transitory was everything? that was ages ago. lisa: we dropped the word and we dropped the concept. after dropping the word, people clung to the concept that we would see these base effects and new inflationary pressures in the form of what we are seeing from ukraine and the discretion -- destruction in the exports of oil and gas. at what point do we get to a place where we are crisis-free? tom: the only base effect that matters is from electro harmonics. they have a compressor to die for. it has opto feel. it is base effects. electro harmonics of long island, they just kill with this. they own it. lisa: i am looking at bonds on the 10 year yield. i love your guitar stories. i just cannot really add much to it. i think the move in bond yields has been dramatic. tom, will it get worse or better after the meeting minutes that you are not going to read? tom: i

tom: kailey leinz, in a trilateral world, i will suggest with a massive locked down in china, the warn ukraine, seeing the images of esther putin -- mr. putin, the united states is the only one left standing within the global recession. kailey: the united states in theory more insulated from the situation then europe. rush -- the u.s. could be heading for a crisis whether or not an embargo is put in place and the wto echoes the peterson institute warning of a slowdown in growth in the backend of the year. the bank of america fund manager saying numbers are the lowest on record. tom: we were in russia an hour ago and images of mr. macron, we hope to bring you madame le pen. this is french campaigning with medical officials in the far east of france over by switzerland and germany, and macron has stood there for at least an hour and done campaigning the macron way. lisa: he didn't do a lot of campaigning into the first round and he is kicking it up after the closeness in the election. the broader implication is dramatic. below are angry about how quickly the prices of the goods they buy