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and sharon beasley it running strong against ted bud in north carolina, a state that went -- >> tom bevan was on last night, he said that is a five point race. he said, it is not close. anyone who says that north carolina race is close, is full of hot wind. which is fine there are plenty of races where democrats should be -- >> no hot wind, i see different polls. they give us hope. kennedy: so far real clear politics and method they use is pretty accurate, they don't have a dog in this fight some, progressive polling in places like oregon show that race is ad dead heat that a republican could be elected governor for the first time in 40 years in the beaver state. as jason said, hand, hannah this is the most cony connecticut -- consequential election how do you feel. >> they say that each election. as a whole, there is not, on some big social issues, sure with spending you get less worse results from republicans, i can be persuaded we don't want democrats to have a majority if we did we would see crazier progressive line items passed. trying to push people out of freelance work, and build

tom bevan here with us right now. an interesting selection of states. what do you make of it?of candidates where he's been in those states a couple of months ago. the candidates had scheduling issues. look, president biden's job approval rating is 43% in the real clear politics average. in some swing states, it's 39 or 40. so for most of these candidates, you know, he's a drag on the ticket. they don't want him around right now as their -- very close races. again, trying to stay focused bevan. >> it's on abortion and protecting democracy but the question is whether that is in sync with the voters demands and the voter concerns which right now most of the polls almost every poll across the board shows the economy and inflation the number you 1 issue. >> don't know how it sorts out in colorado. that could change. we are seeing signs of that right now in georgia as well. that could change. but i'd be curious to get your hands capping of the senate. >> right now you have nevada that would be a pickup for the republicans and john fedder man. all it would be a wash. however, a lot o

i want to bring tom bevan in, the real clear politics co-founder.out on a limb, the senate will go republican. are you still confident of that? these one and two-point races not withstanding? >> we are. look, these are projections of what we think will happen election day. if there's data that leads to us a different conclusion, our projections will change. right now everything we're seeing both at the generic ballot level -- we had two polls out today in favor of republicans, four points, five points. the average is back to 2 1/2 points for the rcp average. the individual races themselves, they have been trending in the republicans direction over the last couple weeks. they've been tightening as undecided have been moving and moderate voters. the way things go, neil, anybody who has followed elections, four races under two points, 1 1/2 points, some of them under a point, these are razor thing races. somebody will have a good night on election night. the undecided voters will break to one side or the other. when they do, they will win the majority.

>> neil: want to go to tom bevan, what he makes of this. the real clear politics co-founder and president. first on this issue of so many democratic candidates on defense not on the economy but you can extend that to the illegal migrants and the general inflation news to say nothing about how things are faring with the great russian threat, the china threat, a lot of threats what do you make of this? >> well, the data is clear on this, neil. it has been a long time. the economy and the inflation is the number 1 issue on the minds of american voters. that includes republicans but also independents. the problem the democrats find themselves in is they have put all of their eggs in the abortion basket. they are running -- if you look across the country, the ads are running, the mailers going out are exclusively on abortion and protecting woman's right to choose. that has had the effect of firing up the democratic base. that's certainly something that the democrats need. they need a motivated base to turn out. but it is also put them in a posit

joining me now is tom bevan, president and co-founder of real clear politics, and brian kilmeade, fox and friends, co-host and author of the president and the freedom fighter. now out in paperback. he's also the host, of course, one nation, airing saturdays at eight p.m.. tom , it turns out that these gop candidates with no experience in many cases, are connecting with the concerns of everyday americans in their states. and districts better than the democrats who may be the incumbents. >> yeah, and i think they've they've all acquitted themselves pretty well in the debates that they've had. if you think about vance in ohio, you think about even herschel walker outperformed expectations in his debate in georgia. blake masters certainly had a strong debate performance in in arizona. and so and you look at the the the democratic candidates, when you didn't mention in your angle, luras is mandola barnes in wisconsin. another another who is seen as a rising star in the democratic party. ron johnson is well up in the polls now. there is leading in all the polls, extending his lead there. an

tom bevan, president and co-founder of realident clear politics, and mike davis,f president of article three project. ticle 3 prand former clerk to je neil gorsuch. mike , now you worked in the senate. your reaction to this cocoon surrounding fetterman when we know what a day in the life of w senanator was working at full tilt, what it really is alll about? of yeah. so the 13 million people of pennsylvania need to decide. they have two home state senators. they need to decide if they want one who is going tortd be smart and effective and be able to work with his colleagues to get the 60 votes necessary to necessa deliver for pennsylvania. do they want fence at all treatment grants ty wantanyl tro new york and illinois, or do they want those grants to go to. pennsylvania? whenwhen they're picking when t home state senators are picking federal judges? do you h want a home statebe senator who's going to be independent and provide anmea independent check on president biden? or do you wantte a home state senator who's going to be bidens and schumer's puppet? this this is a critical decision

>> joining me now is indiana congressman jim banks, chair o the republican study committee, and tom bevan, president , co-founder of real clear politics. congressman, right now, republicans and i don't want tot bapublicans and i don't want tot but have the wind atck their backs. comes, but the next question becomes what a republic is going to dos when they get into power. will this be squandered opportunities or is this going to be hit the ground running? >> yeah, laura , we can't squander the opportunity that we have a couple o f weeks ago, republicans made a commitment to america. we unveiled our agendar to th o the american people, a framework. we hamework. ,everything we can to keepso w that commitment to america. >> so fio we have to we have to fight hard to pass legislation to bring dow n gas prices, tocrt address inflation. the democrats are so divorced from the reality today of ame everyday working americans, they don't know what they'relo going through. and when they've all los mt the equivalent of one month of their salary on average. seventy two hundred dollar thas. a year that

. >> joining me now is tom bevan, president and co-founder of real clear politics. tom , have you been seeing any data suggesting a swing back to biden in the last two and a half weeks or so? weeks oo >> no, not yet.. >> certainly possible but we're seeing all the movement towa it's certainly possible. but bue ret right nopublw we'rig all the movement is toward the republican party and we're seeing that not just we're seeing it in the genericional bd congressionainl out, which is really a leading indicator for a lot of these state races.n and that has shifted and that are going on .icans gainedu and that has shifted. republicans have gained almost in the generic ballot and in the four points in the genericth, de ballot just in the past month. democrats have lost aboutint an seven tenths of a percentage point. so republicansd have the biggestc ballot lead they've had in the generic ballot in the real clear politics average since and it's a late middle of june. so it looks like it's a late breaking wave for the gop. intoh and we'll have to see if there's any data that