tom keene is there. tom? withwonderful the first of the managing director of the international monetary fund. does first-order economics but out of harvard he has landed to rest and risk management doing that it citigroup and other spots along the road. he can link in the stability of the system into our present day economics. she calls it a delicate moment. what is the delicate moment of our global financial stability? >> it is a risk management moment. we have the forecast of the economy slows down. thate downside risk and means one has to be very careful. we expect growth to strengthen back next year but with trade tensions, not knowing where monetary policy is going to go, not knowing how chinese growth will turn out, is time to make sure policymakers do no harm and they try to be supportive of growth. the last thing we want to see is a downturn. tom: when you say do no harm that speaks to the trade policy, the almost mercantilism of the president of united states. interview,rview to it is not bad but the

and tom keene. a stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: good morning, everyone.cine lacqua. these are important meetings at the workshop. everything is a secret. you can't identify who said what. is the chairman. >> the funniest thing i heard since it became chairman's i met chinese guy that i've known for i was already fascinated by the chopping house rule but i never thought i would meet the ruler. tom: if you look at the basic economic equation that you live by and we all live by, there is domestic work and there is the external work identified by net exports and imports. worry about a global slowdown? are we over focusing on trade dynamics versus the underlying strength of various domestic economies? >> you are on form tonight, tom. francine: he had an italian espresso. of the biggest issue that has been bothering me in the last six months is a slowdown of chinese consumption. sadlyat indirectly is resolving why europe is so weak. so looking at it slightly more positively, what we got out of china in the past week might be the beginnings of evidence that chin

tom keene is with a special guest. lcome all of you on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television at the meeting of the international monetary fund. york -- with new speaking in new york with stephen moore, canada to be on the fed. this is the interview of the day . she is the governor of the federal reserve system affiliated with democratic politics. more than anything, it is a sterling academic achievement at wesleyan and harvard and onto a career in economics and harvard. what an interesting time. president trump going after the trading partners in europe and all of that. i want you to tell global audience and an american audience where you were the day the berlin wall fell. what was the moment like for you? for me it was huge. i grew up in poland and germany and at cross the wall several times. the world changed dramatically. and positively for me. we have seen europe strengthen since then dramatically. tom: within the economics we have today, there is social discussion as well. should we assume there is a potential o

tom keene is looking at vespas on his screen. that is all he is focused on now. myself on there too. from your lips to god's ears. [laughter] chris rupkey staying with us. much more coming up. fed, mueller, and oil prices. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: good morning. tom keene, lisa abramowicz in four francine today. what we would like to do now is speak of sri lanka, but not of the immediacy of the tragedy. we are still receiving information, some of 300 dead, mostly in christian churches and some of the fancy hotels in colombo. we have the perfect conversation all ian marlowe, covering policy in south asia. you understand this is buddhist with minority hindu, muslim, and christian, and it goes back to the sonalis buddhism of the british empire, going back to 1948, then independence. who is this majority buddhist population that creates immense tensions with these three minorities? been saying,e have in sri lanka, almost every religious group, at one point or another, has targeted one of the other groups. what happened here -- and when this first happened, easter sund

this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ bloomberg "surveillance," francine lacqua in london, tom keene in new york. ravels of prime minister may. rumor has it she did not take british air. francine: i think we can confirm it. tom: you go to the lindy city airport -- london city airport and have a coffee and then go to berlin. i do not think that is the way she went. francine: she is landing in 30 minutes from now and probably has also both phones from the royal air force to make the crisis more imminent. tom: we will follow her travels on this tuesday. wolfango piccoli and yianos -- with us. what are you watching in the political and financial suit of turkey? of turkey? yianos: we want some stabilization for the electoral outcome to become old news. once that is the case, we can concentrate on the economic set up and the potential of getting something new from the minister of finance in terms of structural reform. ultimately, we have a turning point in terms of the cycle in turkey in the sense that we had a big attraction in demand. the currency moved substantially by now so there is a chance that t

i'm tom keene in new york.tant woman in the arab world, egypt's minister of investment and international , who is advocating notstment for a politically troubled, but interesting, egypt to say the least. i have to get the news of the moment out of the way. "the times of london" expanding on a story in "the new york times." i want to dovetail your economic and investment efforts with the political challenges that mr. of -- that mr. el-sisi has faced. guest: thank you. on yourlovely morning program. as you mentioned, we are moving forward with legal reform to improve the business environment , and there is a grand vision for egypt where investment would be driven by the private sector. so we will do all of the required reforms to ensure that. this is reflected in the indicators. we have continually improved rating for egypt. efforts andonomic international cooperation efforts, are they amended or changed given the politics that egypt?sisi has in guest: the politics have helped improve the environment and open the

i am tom keene in london with anna edwards.hoice, and this folds in to steven major's call for low interest rates. first quarter growth is moldy. how does it get better through the year? >> clearly what we saw was a big drop in consumption and that is why we will see this number come in at around 1.4% annualized. also, there's some pickup from government spending which has been impacted by the shutdown. we know from the budget that we should continue to see that. we do expect to see a visible slowdown in the u.s. economy this year. we are forecasting below-market consensus and that reflects a fiscal phase. you still have fiscal stimulus supporting the economy but not as much as last year. there is a deceleration coming through, but 2.3% is not bad, short of trust -- president trump's 3%, but not a bad number. move towe get the major two point 1% on the 10 year yield, what does that do to dollar dynamics? steven: the dollar can still be strong. i know the temptation is to focus on the cyclical dynamics and look at rate different

right now, guy johnson and tom keene, let's get to our first word news.t special counsel robert mueller found out about links between russia and the trump campaign. a redacted version of his report will be released today. attorney general william barr is holding a news conference before sending the report to congress, the democrats saying it gives him a chance to spin the contents before the public reads it. another member of the trump cabinet is getting ready to leave. energy secretary rick perry is finalizing the terms and timing of his departure. he once ran for the republican nomination for president. consumers in the u.k. brushing aside turmoil over brexit, retail sales unexpectedly growing, up in march for the third month in a row. rising 1.1%, record unemployment and rising income are helping underpin consumer spending. venezuela again winning the title of the world's most miserable economy. ,or the fifth year in a row they are topping the bloomberg misery index which looks at inflation and unemployment outlooks. inflation is projected to hit 8,000

if you're watching from asia, tom keene in new york. m expanding the 0.4% for the euro area. of datais a little bit that goes back to this remarkable thing that we saw in u.s. gdp last week. economy and a separate external economy. it looks like the european economies are actually doing ok. will focus on trade and china. we will look at the gdp figures. but let's get straight to the bloomberg first word news in new york city with viviana hurtado. viviana: we begin with a bloomberg scoop. china's hallway -- while technology is denying rumors a china spy on u.s.. vodafone says flaws could have huawei access. weressues they say resolved but the information may damage their reputation. trade to wrap up a agreement. steven mnuchin telling reporters that he is looking forward to having inductive discussions. leading a chinese trade elegation to the u.s. prime minister theresa may facing another child from her own conservative party. members signed a petition opposing her leadership to force an emergency vote on her future. she will face judgme

tom keene in new york, francine lacqua holding court in london.ry, but i'm distracted by deutsche bank. it is a standalone strategy. francine: yes, you are right to focus on deutsche bank and we will continue focusing on deutsche bank. we are hearing from the chief executive also saying he expects to take part in deals regarding asset management. the story i am following closely as if you look at what president xi was saying in his speech, he seems to be signaling he will give trump what he wants in the u.s.-china trade war so things could be moving in the right direction quickly. tom: maybe they are saving face. right now with our first word news, here is viviana hurtado. forana: time is running out theresa may and her plan to get the u.k. out of upcoming european elections. she is unlikely to put her brexit bill before parliament next week so probably will not get it ratified before the european elections. that vote will likely mean losses for her party. kim jong-un morning the current -- off the korean peninsula is at risk, accusing faiths. of

i am tom keene.p administration wants to wrap up a trade deal with china by next month. next week, a delegation goes to beijing for talks which returned to washington on may 8. they hope to announce a draft agreement then. intellectual property and how a deal would be enforced are sticking points still on the table. kim jong-un arriving in russia for talks on his nuclear program with vladimir putin. the kremlin says putin will try positive -- consolidate the positive begun by donald trump. joe biden expected to announce he is running for the presidential nomination. rallyl have a campaign next week in pittsburgh. he plans to focus on his economic message and strong ties to labor unions. theresa may is considering a new tactic in her attempt to deliver alreadyparliament rejecting her deal with the e.u. three times. she is going to try her luck with a piece of legislation that would enshrine her deal. if they do not get a brexit deal in a month, they will have to deal with european elections that could

from our studios in washington, i am tom keene. francine: they did not let me through immigration. tion. francine: me and the rest of the imf gang. it took at least two hours. tom: this is a metaphor for these meetings, and i want to go to president trump inserting himself into the -- himself into the festivities. francine: this is something we have been trying to figure out, if he signs a trade deal with china does he put his sights on europe with tariffs on cars and the 11 billion we were hearing about? we will kick off two days of the imf annual spring meeting with conversations. down with the sit managing director of the imf, christine lagarde, asking her about clearing the european banks and whether a certain possible merger would make it too big to fail. tom: lael brainard with the governors of the fed. in new york city with our first word news, here is viviana hurtado. viviana: a breaking story fast developing, julian assange in the custody of london police. the president of ecuador announcing on twitter it pulled his diplomatic immunity. in 2012, he sought refuge at the emba

tom crean -- tom keene off to our queen victoria street to do radio.oes this evening and whether we have a constitutional crisis on our hands in the united kingdom. coming up, we speak with the kentucky governor. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua here at westminster. the dallas fed president says he sees u.s. gdp growing this year. anyhe is not forecasting rate hikes this year. he spoke in an exclusive interview. plot,id not, in my dot have rate increases for 2019. it does not mean i couldn't change my mind. it means that, as i sat there in the march meeting, that was my base case for 2019. but it is always subject to change. is for my main goal monetary policy now is we are flexible and we are patient. i want to see how growth is going to unfold for the next several months in 2019. based on what i see -- and for me, i look not only at the economy hard data, i look at corporate earnings reports, look at what is going on in the markets, particularly fixed income markets and the treasury curve. as we get

click, call, or visit a store today. ♪ guy johnson in london, tom keene in new york.irst word news update. france, emmanuel macron france, emmanuel macron is presiding over a rare moment of unity following the devastating fire at notre dame cathedral, telling that the cathedral will be rebuilt in five years. whopping $125 million has come in for the reconstruction. there are new reports the trump board board. larry kudlow is saying the white house is interviewing candidates to potentially replace herman board. larry kudlow is saying the white house is interviewing candidates to potentially replace herman cain and stephen moore. republican support for the two has alsouncertainty over brexits uncertainty over brexit has given britain at least one thing -- their summer vacations. fairies across the -- ferry -- jumpingss overnight. there were concerns leaving the e.u. would make it more difficult for british businesses to travel. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am u

bought a lot of assets over the last three years. ♪ ♪ bloomberg "surveillance," francine lacqua and tom keenee clooney in italy. francine: the embers that a form ruzetti form. tom is going around with rosetta stone to learn italian. i cannot wait. tom: she writes wonderful, thoughtful articles for bloomberg opinion. let's look at the american bank that will buy all of american banking. this is a complex letter from jamie dimon with some financial depth. we can see that he could talk about maybe the place of america within europe. headlines are real simple. talking about the excellence of his bank and the challenges doing forward, and the american events across the globe, and all of this wrapped around european banking. banks --ean banks by buy banks in europe? why can't morgan stanley by commerzbank? >> i do not think they want to. jamie has been talking about and reiterating they can keep growing market share by adding bankers. they do not need to take on europe's troubled lenders. business is still very competitive where profitability is potentially at a.p.. -- a peak. francine: and the ban

i'm tom keene in london -- in new york.ington, we will digress from eu banking and dollar dynamics to talk to stephanie baker once more about what is going on in washington. talk for an hour right now. let me cut to the chase on separation of powers. tosn't congress just go their normal process to push back against a president that says my way or the highway? >> absolutely. and you have an extraordinary situation where trump is challenging what is widely accepted as congresses constitutional right to subpoena hisrequest members of cabinet and executive to appear before congress as their oversight role. is likely to lose many of those fights. but it will just drag things out potentially for weeks or months. this goes to what you are so good at. investigative reporting. you have a piece on a guy from georgia.and russia and he mated up in front of congress. to be clear, the white house can't control who goes before congress. it right? >> know, and you have congress pushing back. congressional democrats have to face this choice

this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: francine lacqua in london and i'm tom keene in london.n the great divide out there in strategy and economics. ben. and then -- thehe great u.s. divide, need for a rate increase versus stability as we have seen with mario draghi. or the need for a rate cut. soave never seen the gap big. how do you see this? is it a grand canyon or is there middleground? >> the middle ground is where we are right now. the likelihood of a cut or a hike is extremely remote right now. pce will bet core lucky if we get to 1/8 by the end of the year. they have them hiking next year. tom: does the ecb boxed in the same way? we get the dots and the inflation forecast. does mario draghi have an inflation forecast? >> they have one, but they don't get back the target. seeing, what they were i think they decided to positive move back on base guidance. year, the rest of the they can't move. normalization earliest would be sometime in the first half of next year. select the fed, they are in the weight -- they are in wait and see mood -- mode. become a good question the

bloomberg surveillance, tom keene and francine lacqua on queen in london.uests -- guests. we are not ignoring markets. really reaching out well over 26,000 this morning, the futures. i saw the story three or four hours ago. and absolutely spectacular new york-based story on deutsche bank. , all this talk of money laundering. we go to frankfurt and speak to steven arons. for everyone in global wall street, this is common knowledge. people running around manhattan ofing to launder gazillions dollars through these banks. how will this be taken by the idea that deutsche bank is participating with these smaller peripheral banks? how will that be taken in frankfurt? it just addsnk another layered to all the questions facing the bank about compliance, about money laundering. it you mentioned danske bank. the banking sector as a whole in europe is now embroiled in scandal. deutsche bank is at the forefront of this. and it doesn't make things easier for the bank. people will look at the story very carefully and ask what it means for the bank. tom: and the other idea

francine lacqua and tom keene.tion, open ramin and catherine mann, and on we go to various dignitaries. -- lupin rahman and catherine mann, and on we go to various dignitaries. it has been hours since we last saw dr. frenkel. francine: when we look at the end of monetary policy and the fact that it is being extended, what does that mean for global growth? the end of monetary policy deserve some clarification, so you main lengthening -- mean lengthening the period we will have low rates? francine: yes. jacob: though rates by themselves will not create growth. by themselves will not create growth. it has been now 10 years and monetary policy has tried to give the space in the room for those other policy instruments to come up. as long as the other policy instruments do not come in, monetary policy alone will not do it. low interest rates that are exceedingly low create distortions. they direct investors into the financial markets. we want them to invest into growth and services and plans and equipment, so we flew --

i am tom keene in new york.eet, there are moments that stand still. -- just precious afford view on deutsche bank. the price target taken down to 6.50 euros. what i find startling -- stunning is a return on equity. forget about single-digit or low single-digit, he does not see a plan forward. francine: i know you have a chart looking at deutsche bank. this is after deutsche bank missed its first quarter net income and the potential merger with commerzbank has been ruled out. credit suisse noting that the lender has not laid out structural changes to address its problems. last week, we were trying to reminisced or remembering that they already had restructuring plans in about four years, and investors now more -- now want something more. tom: if you look at the famed one has really capitulated on the major hazards , barclays,it suisse and at stifel. right now, your first word news. warning u.s. imf engines could push iran's inflation rate to 50%. the u.s. goal is to cut the country's oil exports to zero. iran alr

i'm tom keene in new york.e dame and will have reports across all of bloomberg. be author of france will here for the next hour. at your side of the pond, we have seen subpoenas come down for various banks. deutsche bank is the name that sticks out. lawmakers are subpoenaing financial information related to story andbusiness whether or not actually this was stained in at was variety of ways that they wanted to investigate. marty, we have lawmakers subpoenaing records. what are they looking for? they want to see if there was any inappropriate relationship between deutsche bank which is donald trump's lender of last resort for decades. whether there was some untoward relationship. guy: what does that mean? is this russia related? is this how financial reporting works? marty: it could be any of those things. there are some suspicions that deutsche bank bent its own rules to help donald trump with his real estate empire. and somehow they would be treated favorably under his presidency. he would presumably have acce

continuing our coverage now of the imf world bank annual spring meeting, tom keene and francine are standing one of the hosts of the meeting, the managing director of the imf. tom: thank you so much. the news flow extraordinary, but all of that pushed aside. we welcome the grandmother christine lagarde. [laughter] carol: newly minted grandmother --francine: newly minted grandmother. tom: everyone fine and well? christine: everyone doing well, now we will look to the future. what is delicate at the moment is moving from what we had assumed would be a synchronized growth a year ago to what looks like a synchronized slowdown at the moment. you actually try to understand the roots of that and identify the policy that countries can apply in order to go back to roaring growth, which we are still hoping for in 2020 because we believe that while this year will be at 3.3% global growth, next year we will focus on 3.6%. francine: how much of a concern is it when they have to roll this back? christine: they will probably have to do that in a very gradual way. does that monetary policy which, remain vie

that is tom keene. a reminder, hearings on capitol hill as we speak.nuchin, william barr both testifying. drug company ceos talking about drug pricing. you can watch any or all of these hearings on live go. this is bloomberg. ♪ live from new york, i'm vonnie quinn and this is "bloomberg markets." it is time now for futures in focus. joining us is brian. no end in sight to oil moving higher. what are you targeting? it is right below $64 a barrel right now. >> yes. we are getting overbought here. seems like we are in a 50 to 60 range. why are we this high? we have temporary supply problems with libya, venezuela. we have cut off the iranians. those are temporary things. we don't have a supply problem because the saudis have turned it up. i don't see demand picking up anytime soon. why would i say that? the u.s. will hang in there. our recovery is going well but we are threatening mexico with closing the border. we are threatening the europeans with tariffs because of the airbus subsidies. and we are fighting with china. all of those things will suppressed

i'm tom keene. onant to thank everyone queen victoria street for a really successful week.an tell you that a trophy should begin out to francine for longest thaw. francine: it was cold but it was fun. we spoke to a lot of academics and had some thought-provoking conversations. it was a really wonderful summit. in the backdrop of the summit was let's fix eu banking. john from jpmorgan will step lightly over the seam of let's fix eu banking. with this we are thrilled this , a true expert on eu banking. statisticalsingle observation and eu banking that maybe not in the zeitgeist right now. what is the ratio that matters? numbers thate matter the most is probably the number of banking institutions. the eu has the highest number of banks. we are talking about 28,000 institutions. you take the top five banks in europe and the u.s., and you .ave almost 50% in europe the banks are not large enough. tom: not only do you look at the financial parts, but you look at the human condition. these parts red -- do not represent shareholders. is that true? bank, commerzbank, whatever -- are