i am tom keene in for jonathan ferro.inal thoughts but because of the extraordinary nature of the week, kathy jones, margie patel, peter tchir with us. we are diving into the ramifications of this for the little guy. i don't know whether the little guy is $2000 or $100,000 or even a million dollars. what does the little guy do, pushed around by these institutional realities? kathy: at the end of the day, it has not changed much, being diversified, understanding your time horizon, and making sure you have some safe assets. we have been emphasizing more on the safe assets lately because we are getting more defensive in equities and fixed income. but nothing has changed, you still need that diversification. tom: this is important, i'm going into the real yield here. ferro stays within two years but i'm going off of the actuarial assumption. margie, you shocked me with the idea of 4% or lower. how do we get there if we are the little guy and we have to retire? margaret: frankly, people need to keep working -- that is the real

start your design today at customink.com tom: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i'm tom keene. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ tom: coming up, the yield curve --erts, this inverts, disinverts and historically more , fixed income on fears of global slowdown. bond yields priced to perfection on germany and surging negative yielding debt. finally, credit markets enjoy real volatility. high yield spreads at their widest since january. we start with a big issue, fears of recession and uncertainty surrounding trade sparking a , rush into safety. that leads to a u.s. yield curve that inverted wednesday. as i recall, the first time since 2007. >> the recession is avoidable. >> even when you see the yield curve in the -- invert. >> that does not necessarily mean we are going over a cliff into recession. >> it happens to be about 18 months earlier than you see recession. >> and this is about traditional signals of the yield curve. >> talking about the curve in version. >> inversion. >> 2/10 inversion. >> recession goes right up. markets always short-term have a wall of worry

i am tom keene, in for jonathan ferro.bloomberg real yield," not final thoughts, but because of the extraordinary nature of the week, with peter tchir, margie patel, and kathy jones of schwab with us as well. we are diving into the ramifications of this for the little guy. kathy, i got to go to you. i do not know where the little guy is with this, $2000 or $100,000 or even $1 million. what does the little guy do, pushed around by these institutional realities? kathy: at the end of the day, it has not changed that much. it is all about being diversified, understanding your time horizon, and making sure that you have some safe assets. so we have been emphasizing more on the safe assets lately, because we are getting more defensive, both in equities and in fixed income. but it hasn't really changed. you still need that diversification. tom: ok, this is really important. i'm going into the real yield here. ferro stays inside two years. i am going to go on the real yield based off of the actuarial assumption. margie, the actuar

francine lacqua in london, tom keene in new york. curve flattening.a. the president tweeting south korea has agreed to pay substantially more money to the united states to distend itself from north korea, and claims the relationship is strong. all this as north korea says the missile toast is a warning -- test is a warning to the u.s. new defense's secretary says the drills are needed. gold rising above $1500 an ounce, it has since pared some gains. this year, gold is up 17%. the fbi investigating mass shootings in dayton, ohio, looking at the shooter's interest in violent ideologies and if anyone chose -- helped him. joe biden maintaining a significant lead in the democratic residential race, at 32%, 2%, followed -- followed by elizabeth warren, bernie sanders, and kamala harris. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am viviana hurtado. tom: the markets really on the move. turning to the bloomberg with the equity lift. curves flatter. --want to peak

tom keene is off today.al strike today, with flights canceled and public transport disrupted. chief executive carrie lam is accusing protesters of trying to ruin the city as protests erected across hong kong. ms. lam: those with ulterior motives are going to destroy hong kong, to risk one country, two systems. caroline: joining us with the latest is our chief north asia correspondent stephen engle. give us the latest on the ground. of the: we are in front central government offices which house the just laid of counsel and the chief executive's offices. heard last hour or so, we the signature sound of tear gas being fired by the hong kong police. they did fire several rounds of using "the least amount of force," they say, to disperse the crowd that had blocked the central part of hong kong. mostly peaceful right here on the grass in front of the central government offices at victoria harborside. it is kind of a tense calm right now as police have tried to clear the roadways, but many protesters still stay her

i am tom keene in new york.vanilla unemployment rate and all you need to know is it is eisenhower like, it is lbj, vietnam war boom like as well. we got a bit of a disagreement. your work says it is over. lakshman: our work says the vector on jobs growth which is separate from overall growth and inflation, has turned down. our leading employment index is at its weakest growth rate in 10 years, so directionally the call is in. we can discuss what are the details in the construct, but directionally decelerating jobs growth is what you should expect. the socialant is reality of getting qualified workers. that is a washington distinction. about three or four weeks ago i was in michigan where the unemployment rate is 3% and they cannot find more skilled labor. they add that a lot of young people cannot pass a drug test, so you have to limit in terms of job growth. you have a president who not only imposed -- opposes illegal immigration, he is not crazy about legal immigration and to get the productivity and growth he

i am tom keene in new york. nejra cehic is all prorogation in london.s prorogation? nejra: this is the suspension of parliament were talking about. 9,the week of september cable will come under pressure because this increases the risk of a no deal brexit. there is some positive sentiment at the prospect of a general election. boris johnson says he is not seeking a general election. headlines, we will go to maria tadeo at some point on italian headlines. some stability toward a next election in italy and maria tadeo will explain it. york, our in new first word news. viviana: british prime minister boris johnson moving to make it easier to leave the e.u. without a deal, asking queen elizabeth to suspend parliament until mid-october. that would hamper efforts to block a no deal brexit. johnson saying that will give lawmakers plenty of time to debate. and today, italy may find out whether it will get new government or early election. the president will meet with the main political leaders, who are trying to form a coalition. the democrats are said to have g

our thanks to tom keene of "surveillance." more "markets" ahead.s is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ vonnie: live from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. this is "bloomberg markets. let's check in on the bloomberg" . here's kailey leinz. kailey: iran's president has hungry honey -- is ron's iran's president hassan rouhani has all but ruled out a meeting with president trump. has beguns russia delivering more components of its missile defense system, despite strong objections from the united states. washington says the russian system is incompatible with nato and poses a threat to the u.s. led efforts. threatened sanctions against ankara. in hong kong, chief executive carrie lam sees no need for chinese troops to put down demonstrators. she says she's confident her government can handle the crisis. she says she still once a dialogue with protesters despite an increase in violence. police used water cannons, and one fired his weapon at protesters over the weekend. johnson meter boris with french president emmanuel macron and german chancellor angela merkel, who appeared to

coming up, a very special edition of "real yield" with tom keene. t he will be talking about the inverted yield curve. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i'm tom keene. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. coming up, the yield curve inverts, december its, and historically or fixed income on fears of global slowdown. bond yields price to perfection on germany and surging negative yielding debt. finally, credit markets enjoy real volatility. high yield at their widest since january.

tom keene in new york with nejra cehic in london. ricard reports its first is -- for no ricard reports is fastest growth in seven years. . tom: after the firestorm tuesday and wednesday, this morning is quiet. relative stability in the markets. the s&p 500 4% from a record high. it is trump derangement syndrome. the move upward continues. thisnce summer suggests summer is the best seven days in may. and prime minister johnson needs the clean skin them to september 12 and beyond. good morning, everyone. this is bloomberg surveillance, i am tom keene in new york with nejra cehic in london. the last two days have been asked ordinary. we need a quiet day this morning, don't we? nejra: we do. let the markets certainly are not quiet. in terms of brexit, we have actually heard from the e.u. side saying the prospect of a no-deal brexit might not increase, it might actually have receded. i will be keeping an eye on the long and, too. tom: on twitter, rob hans wonderful summary of the wonderful last hours 24 hours of the u.k., we will get to th

francine lacqua in london, tom keene in new york. what you need to know, bounce and the markets. the chinese set the renminbi at a stronger level than what many market disciplines expected. does a cat bounce? upures up 28 and dow futures 240 points, curve steepening. francine: officials from china are urging hong kong citizens to stand up to protesters challenging the government. force carrie lam's resignation will fail. the ms ci hong kong has fallen some 10 days straight, the longest losing streak since 1984. , we have all watched the briefing and saw and heard what beijing said and we were reefed by the chief of police in hong kong -- briefed by the chief of police in hong kong. is china going to send in armed forces to deal with the escalating protests? enda: it was a harsh message from the press conference. certainly in terms of security, they made the point that police are able to get a grip on the anuation but it will remain open-ended discussion what happens next. both sides seem to be digging in. office and liaison the protesters standing by their own demand. there is no

i'm tom keene in new york. nejra cehic is in london.ld and the united kingdom off today, and this is the banking and financial deal out a bank work holiday in the united kingdom. what is a bank holiday? closed, theanks are and it absolutely dead, is the hottest august holiday on record as well. the sun is shining. >> we saw that, the weather is absolutely extraordinary. huge news flow, huge market flow, good conversation for you. your first word news in new york city. says chinat trump wants to restart trade talks. the focus at the g7 meeting in france. china called last night, our top treat people, and said let's get back to the table, so i think they want to do something because they understand this is the right thing to do and i have great respect for it. positive development for the world. >> last week the countries escalated the trade war tit-for-tat tariff increases. president trump in japan's prime minister shinzo abe have agreed in principle on the new trade deal. they are hoping to sign the treaty next month. they will cut tari

start your design today at customink.com tom: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i'm tom keene starts right now. ♪ tom: coming up, the yield curve --erts, this inverts, disinverts and historically more , fixed income on fears of global slowdown. bond yields priced to perfection on germany and surging negative yielding debt. finally, credit markets enjoy real volatility. high yield spreads at their widest since january. we start with a big issue, fears

i sound like tom keene. t when it comes to argentina and the spillover in the global assets. tom: i get that. that is a broadway play, cry for me, argentina. gideons this morning, rose will join us. another day of protests, another day of departures delay. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ ♪ tom: this morning, there is no business in the stock market. negative yields grind lower. european bank shares are sold. the fifth day we are losing counts of -- losing count of protests in hong kong. cathay pacific another plane see partners -- see departures end. the canary is in the windows aires -- in the buenos goldmine. good morning. this is numbered surveillance. we are live in new york. i am tom crean. -- i am tom keene. francine, the knock out affect of this has to be the european banks. they descend further this morning. francine: they do. reading.e cw it was bad. we were expecting a -48. hong kong is our top story. that. feel anxious about we saw it clearly yesterday. we heard moments ago, the airport in hong

"surveillance," tom keene in new york, nejra cehic very alone in london.it, does it come to a complete halt this summer? nejra: you have the labour opposition party talking about ways to stave off a no deal brexit, so there is work going on behind the scenes and we see that in the pound. tom: for right now with our first word news, viviana hurtado. viviana: not interested in just a photo opportunity with donald trump, that is coming from iran's president. the leader responded to an overture from mr. trump, insisting sanctions are lifted before negotiations. esther rouhani says if all he wants is a photo op you should use fettered shop -- use photoshop. donald trump wrapping up the g7 summit by making clear he will not give up his rough-and-tumble manner to get a trade deal. there has been little real progress. the president's optimism may have more to do with his mood than anything else. in germany, the economy is on the brink of recession. shrank by 1/10 of 1% in the past year, the second contraction. in italy, talks over a new coalition are on hold over

tom keene is in new york.checks, more extensive data checks looking at the sectors because they tariffs kind of came out of nowhere, 10%, and hit the markets quite hard. it also renewed all the anxiousness and fears about the trade war escalating. tom: i looked across three of the great geographies, and instantly it is about contraction, completely readjusting what the central banks do going forward. francine: we will have plenty more on the markets, 20 more on inflation -- on expectations. let's get straight to first word news with viviana hurtado. viviana: beijing vowing countermeasures if the u.s. follows through on the threat of extra tariffs. to chinese imports. at a came pan rally in ohio, president trump said the proposed 10% tariff hike could go higher, to 25%. time asump: until such there is a deal, we will be taxing the hell out of china. that is all there is. viviana: the chinese commerce ministry saying president trump's tariff announcement agreement with president xi. puerto rico governor has stil

i am tom keene new york. let's drive forward the conversation.a mai of pimco. thrilled you are with us. i want to cut right to the chase. we had a dollar index chart of the blended dollar not moving all that much over the last couple days. nowt an opportunistic time to be speculated in foreign-exchange? >> depends on what you are speculating against, i would think. regarding the dollar itself, probably not. we have got a couple of weeks until it becomes clear what donald trump is or is not going to do. markets are in the position of -- basically with the chinese latest moves, markets are betting the fed will cut rates in september. i think that's probably a reasonable probability. probably looking forward than to another rate cut in december thereabouts. what we have got to see now is a -- data from the u.s. side, whether we see a deterioration in data as we see everywhere else. tom: as a strategist, how do you take the em rate cuts we have? stephanie flanders joining us in the next hour. in philippines, thailand with their rate cuts? peter: the

tom keene joins me out of new york.tinue the conversation on the markets with the investment manager at aberdeen asset management. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: helping while way. the white house holds off on a decision for companies to reset business for the chinese tech giant. something he calls for -- sell vini calls for early elections. bayer -- shares in the drug company surge as it is set to pay $8 billion to settle lawsuits over its roundup weed killer. good morning, everyone. good afternoon if you are watching from asia. this is bloomberg surveillance. tom, we are on election watch, so we do not have a date set for italian elections, but there is movement when it comes to italian bond yields. there is brexit watch, and a contraction. we will look at any repercussions. tom: the contractions we were talking about. we will have a good conversation on surveillance today. the german two-year breaks down to grade of -- to greater negative yields. it is impacting a lot of asset classes. we will go into the deeper. tha

i am tom keene, francine lacqua in london.nary. talking about hundreds of thousands, even millions protesting on sunday in hong kong. francine: this has a huge implication. there was a great story in bloomberg businessweek, longer-term this is all about 2048. there is an interesting dynamic where it have been 50 years and the role of the u.k. will slowly fade. it is a longer-term piece about where hong kong goes next. there is quite a lot of market action, not like we saw yesterday. things are stabilizing a little bit. and the yield curve means the dynamics. tom: right now in new york city, our first word news. renita: a glitch at the london stock exchange delayed the opening for some of the biggest stocks. 250ftse 100 and ftse indexes were delayed. the outage comes amid rocky markets within the u.k.'s looming departure from the e.u. israel will allow u.s. representative rashida talib to visit the nation, a reversal from yesterday that barred entry to two members of u.s. congress from entering. this comes despite pressure from

tom keene is a new york. so, hongst hour or kong canceled many flights from hong kong airport. ave moved on this news. we will go to the data right now. equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. we are at -13 on futures moments ago, right now -12. curve flattening. that is a big deal to get an ensht handle on the twos-t spread. let's go onto to the second screen, with the vix showing the angst. there's the friday close on the dow. .atching renminbi francine, what do you have before we go to hong kong? francine: i was looking at treasuries and the yen advancing, gold paring a drop. were down.ocks there's this mounting unrest in hong kong. joining us from hong kong is denton kate. i think for the first time they have actually canceled flights. where did they go from here? do they get worse? reporter: it could get a lot worse tonight if they happen to go in there and clear the airport. we've seen some increasingly violent scenes throughout the city on the subway lines. police fired tear gas into one of them for the first time yesterday, along with rubber bullets and using other cro

i am francine lacqua in london and tom keene is in new york.nd a lot of time trying to figure out what happened at the news conference, why the market is disappointed and what it means for the rally after what jay powell said and we will spend the time that is left in the next two hours talking about the bank of england and earnings. tom: earnings may be about your opening was dead on about the tensions with jay carney, fascinating to see. let's call it bloomberg: race to the bottom, we have great currency charts to show where we are. the lead stories renewed dollar strength today. francine: you are not wrong on that. i was speaking to jean boivin about whether we were in a currency war. let's get to the first word news. >> president trump and investors and blasting what they believe is a muddled message from jerome powell. the central bank cut rates for the first time since 2008 and he left open the possibility of further moves but said he did not expect an extended easing cycle. donald is hoping for a larger rate cut and tweeted, as usual pow

in london.ne lacqua tom keene is in new york. s with extra daily checks and try to figure out what that means for the world economy. tom: really interesting to see where those data checks will lead us. francine, you wonder like when the u.s. markets open at 9:30, you wonder where we will be at 9:38. i have no clue. francine: we will look to the market shortly, but let's get to bloomberg first word news in new york city. here is renita young. renita: president trump is what it -- is making what appears to be an overture to president xi jinping. the president wrote of course shona -- of course china wants to make a trade deal. xi a great leader and once a one-on-one meeting. president trump says china is not the problem facing the u.s. economy. it is the federal reserve. the president resumed his fed bashing as stocks plunged. he said the phase -- the fed fed raised says the called jayast and powell clueless. present -- to prevent boris johnson's government from pursuing a no-deal brexit. corbyn promised to seek a delay in brexit an

francine lacqua in london, tom keene in new york.teresting bond yield movement. germany not great. that may spur a little bit of fiscal spending, not great is what i am talking about in the economy. then you see moves on the back of this, president trump delaying some of the tariffs. tom: yields come in with a vengeance on china off germany, as you mentioned. we are on the inversion watch. that is a historic moment back 12 years. francine: we will have to go back to that and give you all of the updates historically. let's get straight to first word news in new york city. here is viviana hurtado. viviana: china has stepped up its attack on antigovernment demonstrators in hong kong. beijing accusing them of acting like terrorists and swarming the city airport. today flight operations return to normal. authorities are restricting access to the terminals to prevent further protests. chinese officials still plan to come to washington next month for a face-to-face trade meeting. that is a sign that it is on track after negotiation aiders -

tom keene with a week off.ds ago saying that they see a risk to the german economy, that it could shrink again in the third quarter. it is interesting that the german finance minister may have preempted that by saying there is 55 billion. -- 55 billion euros ready to spend if there is a crisis. scarlet: we don't know the conditions that would prompt the german government to deploy that spending per geoff yu mentioned thatthe german economy -- perhaps this latest headline set the scene for a german recession, but until we get confirmation, it is unlikely that we know whether german will -- whether germany will open its purse strings yet. francine: the buddhist bank saying that the german economic outlook is unclear and that hinges -- the bundesbank saying that the german economic outlook is unclear and that hinges on it. here is viviana hurtado. in the: the u.k. faces case of a no deal brexit, according to a report from the from leaked, government documents are we're talking about the brexit situation going on r

tom keene still on his week off.ation on what jerome powell can do tomorrow, how he will anticipate or try not to do the mistakes we saw at the last press conference. there is an outstanding editorial piece saying multilateralism is dead, long live the g7. we look forward to the g7 in biarritz. scarlet: a lot of the attendees will be looking for these one side meetings, bilateral they try toen as get together and solve big, intractable problems together. i can't wait for the group photo. it will be awkward with boris johnson making his debut, president trump wondering where vladimir putin is. francine: it will be interesting. i always like the g7 photo ops. scarlet: herding cattle. francine: we will have plenty more on the g7 throughout the day but let's get to the bloomberg first word news. reserve's reasons for cutting interest rates in july supports another move soon. according to minutes from last month's meeting, policymakers saw the move as insurance from the trade war and low-inflation. over to italy. that's w

tom hanks is a keen aston villa fan, while sylvester stallone supports everton but you don't see manyt he was letting himself in for. he managed to stay classy in a suit in the changing rooms after the match. wright is he actually a fan, what he did hejust wright is he actually a fan, what he did he just happened wright is he actually a fan, what he did hejust happened to be wright is he actually a fan, what he did he just happened to be there? wright is he actually a fan, what he did hejust happened to be there? he is made with the owner, so he invited him along. we are going to talk about rugby union a bit later on. our correspondent has had many moments with eddiejones. he really tried. eddiejones moments with eddiejones. he really tried. eddie jones is moments with eddiejones. he really tried. eddiejones is not the easiest man to break down. the extraordinary thing about wales as they could be world number one in by they could be world number one in rugby terms if they avoid defeat today. that would be a phenomenal achievement for them. edinburgh's international book festival gets

tom hanks is a keen aston villa fan, while sylvester stallone supports everton but here's an unlikelyng caught offside too much los angeles fc share pompey owner is also chief exec of walt disney company that's the connection, i got to the bottom of it. he is not a dyed in the wool fan, and they wear blue, so perhaps he got confused. thank you very much. excitement‘s building for next month's rugby world cup and england start preparations with a match against six nations rivals wales at twickenham today. a win for wales would see them ranked the world's number one team for the first time. and england's build—up has been far from ideal with late injuries and an alleged training ground bust up between mike brown and ben t'eo. 0ur rugby union correspondent chrisjones tried to get to the bottom of it with the england head coach. what can you tell us about mike brown and ben t'eo? i'm not sure what people are talking about, so i don't really have much to say. but there was an altercation between the two? i cannot deny or confirm that. you can't deny it? as i said, i'm not making a comment.

tom hanks is a keen aston villa fan, while sylvester stallone supports everton, but here's an unlikelyshare pompey owner is also chief exec of walt disney company. he is worth £1 billion, so he can invite who he likes to frighten park. pompeii are on the way back with mr eisner in charge. —— bumpier. enjoy all the football that is happening. hot flushes, night sweats and mood swings arejust some of the menopausal symptoms that hormone replacement therapy, or hrt, can help relieve. however, supply issues mean women are facing a national shortage of the drug, because up to half of the most commonly prescribed forms are out of stock in some pharmacies. elizabeth carr—ellis was unable to get her prescription, she joins us from canterbury and in the studio, is kathy abernethy from the british menopause society. elizabeth, lets start with you. did this come out of the blue? no, because i am very interested in menopause had no do a lot of campaigning, soi menopause had no do a lot of campaigning, so i knew from reading on facebook sites that a lot of women had not been able to get their hrt f

tom holland has said it would be keen to do that. it is quite hard to see. ny people and they are dilating it, so money will be lost. i think they will go forward. i was watching the report and i was i think they will go forward. i was watching the report and i wa5ju5t thinking if we could get spider—man drafted to play for barry, we could make a lot of money! a few people have taken issue with me because i have taken issue with me because i have asked why who are not supporters should care about bury. without wishing to get into trouble with you, why should people care as long as spider—man is continuing? sony and disney are ultimately businesses and technically rivals, so because spider—man has become the highest grossing movie for sony, disney want more of the share. so wa nt disney want more of the share. so want a commitment from disney. it is sad to see that they are so competitive that they forget about the fans. the fans have had such an uproar that they don‘t want spider—man leaving the mcu. it is sad that they are not taking the fa ns sad that they

keen to continue to attack them over austerity. may be those people who think an election could be on the cards could well be right. silly season not quite with us yet! tomtly 11:15pm: an investigation by the bbc has found drug crime has dropped in cities but is rising in rural areas and the gangs are targeting the most vulnerable. borisjohnson has announced a review of sentencing for violent and sexual offenders and tonight further investment in prison security. all flights investment in prison security. all flights to and from one of the world's busiest transport hubs were cancelled today. hong kong's international airport was closed by pro—democracy protesters. one of the world's busiest airports, hong kong international, has been closed for the day, and all flights cancelled, after thousands of anti—government protesters joined a sit—in. there have been demonstrations in hong kong for 10 consecutive weekends about a proposed law that would have made it easier for suspects to be sent to mainland china for trial. the law has been suspended. beijing has called some of the protests terrorism and vowed to respond to violent crime with an iron fist. jonatha