alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. is wednesday, futures -53, down on the s&p 1.2 percent. on the nasdaq, down 1.4%. tom: it is moving out there. you go to the currency dynamics as well.

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. tom keene front and center. we have a bigger rate hike debate. tom: you highlight goldman sachs and the bank of england. there is much more going on than that. the major central banks versus others whose hands are forced by inflation. jonathan: they are already moving. let's look at the front end in new zealand, the u.k., and the u.s. in new zealand they have already hike. the u.k. is encouraging the move at the front end. the united states is doing anything about. this is becoming a bit of a market test for chairman powell going into november 3. tom: what you see, and this goes to the central banks, is the linking in of energy costs, hydrocarbons into other commodities. i was younger at the last time i talked about that. jonathan: central banks are starting to respond. we are seeing it in the u.k. much more so. could they hike? goldman says november. than it is onto the fed. forget about tapering. it is on. it is what they talk about around the interest rate discussion that has been sparked up over the last coup

alongside tom keene, lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. tom keene, jp morgan earnings this hour. tom: they get us going this morning, and what will be so important are the conference calls, the nuances of what they say, not only what jamie dimon says, but then, jon, we dive into those important tech earnings. jonathan: before we get the cpi, we need to talk about apple. fantastic reporting from debbie woods out in taipei. that stock is negative, just .6%. apple is likely to switch its projected iphone 13 production targets buys many of 10 million units -- why? because they can't find the chips. tom: my carrier is t-mobile, and they said the same thing to me, jon. they are having trouble getting the phones. to things are going on. one is the shortage of daily reports. but the other thing is they are selling the unit. people want the new toy. the team i bloomberg intelligence says the demand is at least at 6.5% better than consensus. jonathan: you can learn something from the bloomberg story. you can also learn something about how the market responds to the bloomberg story. that is

tom keene, this feels very european doesn't it. m: it feels european but we've been doing this for years. i can or member the statistic of how many times we've done it. it's an original politics, there is an election coming up. i get all of that and i may really be wrong on this and the people like me may be wrong where we go i could really be wrong. jonathan: year end with a fed decision. tom: i don't think we should go on vacation the three of us. lisa: you are making friends by suggesting nobody go on vacation. honestly this is going to be interesting especially because the longer we go without a resolution the longer the federal reserve will run -- may run out of tools to deal with the debt limit on an interim basis. jonathan: what did someone put in your tank this morning? why are you so upset? tom: i was sent a bottle of champagne. jonathan: from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: let's call the past 24 hours interesting. a reflection of where we are at the moment. equity futures are positive 27 on the s&p. the nasdaq up

tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. e back by 4/10 of 1% on the s&p. 80 euro-dollar -2/10 of 1%. tom: 1% move. [laughter] jonathan: i cannot take you seriously with your red socks. tom: this is bigger than the socks. a global audience says, what is the big deal? peter gamin's talking about the calvinism there from stockbridge to boston. let's look at red sox baseball. this is in the time of ted williams. for those on radio it is calvin in bed after the homerun in 1978. and the problem we have is yankee fans shopping for a fancy yankee paraphernalia. jonathan: goodness sake. is that an official new york yankees ralph lauren? tom: you can be sure the gentleman from brooklyn is a yankees fan as well. john, spirit of the moment and fun for everyone. jonathan: it is. there is a reason annmarie has not come back. she feels like she has been trolled by you. [laughter] tom: get a detroit tigers fan acting nice today. jonathan: president biden is blaming republicans. others are saying he is right. frame us what is going on in d.c

tom keene, we have a problem with the messaging. essaging is there, it's regional, it's geopolitical. i think every story is different , again i'm going to go back to the messaging of corporations, their profits in their future, certainly their short-term strategic plan is at risk and companies are making the action here. companies in the united states almost acting as surrogate for government. jonathan: you think others will follow jp morgan? tom: i think they will follow visibly and it will be interesting to see if we see people follow quietly paid jonathan: in the statement from j.p. morgan it suggests their clients are the people who are turning around to them and saying we want to make sure people come to see us are vaccinated. the clients were pushing it and jp morgan responded. lisa: how similar of a story will that be for the airlines. mandating vaccines, those will feel more comfortable getting on those planes. at one point -- at what point is it driven showing discretion for those that do prioritize. jonathan: incredibly di

jonathan: i am alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. we had down .25%. et up for the season. tom: we need the earnings. it really gets

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. m: good morning, everyone. in this hour, do you have the courage to be in the market? biot occur -- beata kirr with us in moments. earnings not bad. jonathan: you know what the big mystery is kailey: how divorced -- mystery is? how divorced the conversations are we have a rose are -- we have every day are with the market. when people talk about the doom and gloom and margins, you've got an equity market just short of all-time highs. it is getting harder to reconcile the conversation we have daily on programs like this and where the market is. jonathan: andy pullback -- tom: and a pullback like today is crushing, negatives .07% -- -0.07%. jonathan: every time there is a pullback, we need to talk about the durability of the so-called fed put and how durable that fed put can be. have we finally broken out of this lower inflation regime? that's got to be top of mind for bread much everyone worldwide. does the fed have the capacity to keep supporting and equity market if we break out of a l

wrap it up." 10-year, tom keene, the curve a little bit flatter this morning, the front end is movingm: i am watching the curve, .4991 on the two-year. jill moak -- gilles moec speaks of the linkage of central banks. we are thrilled he can join us, free ecb. gilles, i will let jon ferro dive into madame lagarde and the ecb. my question to you is more thorough -- how linked are these central banks right now? gilles: they are kind of link, because they have similar policies, at the peak of the pandemic, and their starting point is very similar between the fed and the ecb, three programs in both regions. however, i would suggest that europe and the u.s. are still in two very different positions from this point of view. the recovery started earlier in the u.s. the fiscal stimulus was higher than in europe, which means the output gap in the u.s. is probably close to 0 right now, so that the fed talks about removing qe entirely, find that some members talk about hiking rates, fine, but we are not there in europe. and the risk is that the market tries to create a bucket where every single ce

tom keene and jonathan ferro together this morning with kailey leinz. equity futures down 23. -.5%. nd market in america is closed. in germany it is open. tom: closed? why are we here? jonathan: from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ baaam. internet that doesn't miss a beat. that's cute, but my internet streams to my ride. adorable, but does yours block malware? nope. -it crushes it. pshh, mine's so fast, no one can catch me. big whoop! mine gives me a 4k streaming box. -for free! that's because you all have the same internet. xfinity xfi. so powerful, it keeps one-upping itself. can your internet do that? >> we are starting to get some signs that we are getting back to one labor market, but it is still not back to the way it was pre-pandemic. >> i think wage growth is actually as important as the federal report. >> the stagflationary environment, they are going to tolerate the higher degree of inflation. >> i think chair powell already set up for a possible does appointment. >> i think the market has essentially priced in the start. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom kee

jonathan: tom keene, i imagine he is in a better mood. the -- he is a happy man. a happy man. jonathan: i'm not sure it is a great comparison. features down 19 on the s&p. let's whip through this price action for you. yields are higher. the euro is stronger. tom: i think the stability here is important. the spill -- the stability brings new levels. what is not stable is from an 18 or 19 level. jonathan: it is shifting. a soft landing at the fed. i do not know where. transitory is becoming less transitory. tom: you are poetic. with that, we migrate to david wilson with some really good observations on the equity market. let a set of differing opinions. >> absolutely, but not all that different. tom: this is a story about narrowness. >> you avoid the worst performing group and you tend to do better. it will have a list among energy sectors, but what happened in the third quarter is that there was so little distinction between the best and the worst performers that they did not really matter. the gap of less than seven percentage points, the best performer out of the

tom keene, get the christmas shopping done. t is funny, and i know we are going to talk to johns hopkins in a minute, but we are having an american discussion, worried about narratives assuming covid is fixed or really on our way to doing way better. there are so many other parts of the world with that is not the case. i look in australia, you look at the australian football league and i'm not sure the brisbane lions are going to get it done. jonathan: you've never watched it in your life. i used to watch the rugby league, the broncos. tom: i am more concerned about the afl and what the liens are doing. -- lions are doing. jonathan: i have to make a joke about it. lisa: those two people are watching surveillance for the sport updates. tom: you don't have a heart. you are heartless. lisa: he is a person too. tom: there are parts of the world are where we are but i want to see it brisbane can do it against sydney. they are not the same as they were. when they had michael voss they were better. jonathan: coming up, dr. adalj : join

tom keene,. this is bloomberg. >> with first word news, the federal reserve says it will ban officials at the organization from buying stocks with trading. it is an embarrassing scandal for the fed. it is a path renomination, and some fed washers say that the quick actions will deal with senior fed officials. european government will result in a steep to tech china. they will retain core digital platform such as amazon and facebook. the global tax deal will come into effect, and they will refund any levies in excess of the agreed rate. carbon reduction is lowered then anticipated, due to a mobile chip shortage. manufacturer says it will make 500 thousand fewer vehicles in 2021 due to lack of components. they previously predicted a shortfall of roughly 200,000. authorities are investing after confirming alec baldwin shot two people in an incident involving a prop gun on a set of a gun in new mexico. a cinematographer was killed and a director was wounded. the production has stopped. global news, 2

announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. m: good morning. on radio and television, interesting tuesday to say the least. we stagger to the jobs report friday but before that pepsico readjusted. revenues are going to be better than good. john, the mystery of what begins october 13. jonathan: onto jp morgan's earnings and we kick things off with apple. remarkable moment and a big question -- can you meet demand with supply? we so that with nike, fedex and others. it is the key question going into earnings season. damage of the index level five points on the s&p. amazon, apple, facebook much greater. double or triple that. tom: 11% on apple as well and we are looking at this drawdown. that is a fancy word for people with bowties. it is a loss and some losses are tangible. jonathan: buy the dip? how has that worked out? tom: they had a big year the year before. jonathan: they did. but it is so easy to sit here and say, buy the dip. people, programs like this and then you hesitate. tom: lisa, to me it is extraordinary how the pres

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. m: good morning, everyone. kailey leinz in for lisa abramowicz. the bond market is closed. abramowicz says i'm not coming to work. jonathan: but it is open in germany, open the u.k., and those bonds are lower, yields are higher. the u.k. joining the likes of new zealand, mexico, brazil, norway, hiking interest rates. tom: price down, yield up. along the way, there's got to be touch points. a german 10-year getting to zero is a huge deal in this 13 crisis. -- in this 13 year crisis. jonathan: can we talk about that $81, $82 handle on wti? we haven't talked about these numbers since the back end of 2014. tom: we have only come back to normal when you adjust for a lot of fancy mass, but i'm sorry, we had a rounded up $85 a barrel on brent crude an hour ago. when do we see $90 a barrel? jonathan: maybe soon. what does that mean politically speaking? the politics of $90, the politics of $100. we got to have a bigger conversation about that, tom. tom: as we dive into earnings season, kailey

tom keene, just going deeper and deeper into earnings season. tom: deeper into earnings season, a sigh of relief off the banks. taking it from the last hour, if you missed the last hour it was lights out with an important conversation with margie patel. as we go into industrial, companies away from the accounting of banks, it will be about pricing power. jonathan: i spoke to pepsico, they said they expect the price story to persist but there remains consumer price tolerance. if you have that pricing power, great. if not, margins will be an issue. tom: it will be a sector difference in growth and value. it is underestimated the partition in growth stocks between those with ample cash flow, persistency of cash flow, and pricing power, and the have-nots. jonathan: we get goldman sachs earnings, then it is on to in america. lisa: retail sales at 8:30 a.m. how much will we see a softening? how much does this come into the narrative, the idea that people are buying less? we are seeing this in the auto sector. sales are slowing in part because of how hi

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene. tom: it is a new quarter coming up. come up -- coming up a conversation on 2025. jonathan: we heard from deutsche bank earlier this morning. bank of america in the last hour denigrating european equities. these issues are so well talked about. why are they not well priced at this point? tom: we have had a preponderance of bull markets in the last couple of days and mike wilson has a different story. jonathan: are we starting to lean towards that tail risk that it becomes 20? based on what we have seen through price alone over the last week? tom: lee said, of those 14 things, five or six are wrapped around washington with great uncertainty overnight. lisa: the possibility that we will not get any plan as gridlock and skews has been a potential tailwind to keep spending going at a time when people are getting concerned about the way sherry pressures. that is eating into consumer jonathan: sentiment. jonathan:-- that is eating into consumer sentiment. jonathan: we are up 16 after the smallest of quarterly gains. the bigges

there's elements here that we are dealing with stagflation. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. it is an interesting day, a different day than anything we have seen.

tom keene, that point on emerging markets i think is so important. are seeing real hikes over the last several months. tom: i can't believe i am saying it after 2008 and 2009, greenspan's famous speech at the imf, some of the other moments, the tension here is extraordinary, and it all devolves back to an imf of another time and place, and the imf of the future, which is the emerging markets. jonathan: we will continue that conversation through the week for the imf-world bank meetings. your equity market advancing 0.7%. morgan stanley results, seven: 30 eastern, 17 minutes away. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ pres. biden: the port of los angeles announced today it is going to begin operating 24 hours a day, seven days a week. this is across the board commitment to going to 24/7. this is a big first step in speeding up the movement of materials and goods throughout supply chains. our goal is to not only get through this immediate bottleneck, but address the long-standing weaknesses in our transportation supply chain this pandemic has exposed. jon

audience -- for our audience worldwide this is bloomberg surveillance live on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. for big banks on wall street reporting earnings. tom: it is going to be exceptional, and there is no other way to put it. i looked at the tape this morning. the stag in stagflation is being pushed aside. jonathan: i say day 2 because monday is not enough to cover the cpi report. even steve major has gone from 1% to 1.5%. it is a tactical story for them, a three-month horizon. you take note of that. tom: it is the only order of conversation in washington, the imf and world bank meetings. the quality, the character of this inflation. we are data-dependent. we will have to wait to see what more inflation is. you heard it in the president's comments, it has political attention because the public feels -- they don't care about the dallas trim meeting. jonathan: you can't take out food, you can't take out energy. that t-where it is facing a bigger challenge. lisa: the only person sticking with it is janet yellen. everyone else has a swear jar to put

tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. equity market up 16.our date winning streak on the s&p and we add to it. in the bond market, we reverse things a bit. yields lower. lisa, how much fed speak is there today? lisa: it is ridiculous. jonathan: chairman powell is a bit later. lisa: i was going to go down the list and then i realized it sounded bad. jonathan: on crude, 1.52%. tom: t commodity story is there. he other metals in a moment. the equity market -- the bears have been humbled. a bit going on in washington as people we gauge and adjust. joe mathieu joins us this morning. joe, i look at catherine wrangell in the washington post talking about the actual realities of something is a sick and simple as childcare -- of something as basic and simple as childcare. how do people in suits and ties actually write a bill about childcare? that underscores how distant america is to a social contract we see in europe. what does leadership do about that? joe: they would love to know. it might come to fruition today at the white house, as president bid

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance," from washington, from new york, with citigroup earnings. it is a bank that separate routes transformation, strategic refresh, and culture and talent. of all the banks, citigroup is different. jonathan: we are finding out that in the third quarter on wall street, things were ok. the earnings are out from citi. the big beat, the big lift year-over-year, has come from the equity business for bank of america jp morgan, morgan stanley. citi is no different. investment backing revenue, $1.92 billion. the estimate, $1.54 billion. the story for the equity, the stock, we are up by 1.34%. we already had a full picture of what was happening on wall street coming into these numbers. citi is up. the numbers are decent. sonali basak is still with us. your early read on these figures? sonali: huge beat on the equities business, and he did beat on fixed income as well. the investment banking division also doing well. citigroup up there in terms of

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. from washington and the meetings of the imf and world bank, from new york and the meetings of jp morgan on conference calls, worldwide within inflation report this hour, a busy day. jonathan: and so far, so good. jp morgan doing ok. the imf predicting 5% gdp growth in america. it is about insufficient supply meeting that demand, and higher prices because of those things mixed gather. do those higher prices hit growth? tom: we forget the scale for the moment. jp morgan meeting on the upper end income line. these are giant companies. apple in the news, jp morgan in the news, and they survive this pandemic. jonathan: investment banking fees up by 52%. ipo activity good, and m&a activity good. the banks are clearly picking up some these. tom: a little bit of transitory inflation worry. lisa, we will hear about inflation. every single person i ran into in the airport, on the airplane, started with inflation. lisa: this is what people feel in their day-to-day exp

jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. onto the jobs report tomorrow, we do it with a better market. it is a draw up. jonathan: we are trading on verbal intervention, not trading on resolutions. tom: very nice. jonathan: that is really important to draw a distinction between what is happening here. we are kicking the can in washington, d.c. a bit of verbal intervention. right now, i don't see any resolutions. so sentiments better, yes, but there's a lot still to address. tom: we've had the correction, which was a non-correction, down whatever number you want to use, 6%, 7%, 8%. the back story is there is still a wall of money looking for a warm spot. jonathan: do we need things to get better or stop getting worse? the shipping bottleneck problems are officially going mainstream. as usual, that probably means the worst is behind, even if it means it will take some time to resolve. tom: tea leaves for the morning, liz ann sonders does it with her team and a great set of charts. finally, shanghai to l.a. cargo rose over -- car

tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. tom and i are paid to like each other.wap comes up later. this is bloomberg. ♪ laura: democrats are trying a new, riskier approach to taxation to helps save the president biden social agenda proposing a tax that would affect about 700 people, one billion dollars in assets for those that earn at least $100 million three years in a row and meanwhile the separate path would require companies that report more than $1 billion in profits to pay a 15% tax rate. president biden is zeroing in on whether to renominate jerome powell for another term as chair of the federal reserve. the president has started to meet with treasury aids to review candidates and hasn't settled on a choice and is not clear whether he is leaning towards reappointing powell or replacing him. the chinese president is calling for breaking new ground in records development, saying china must establish a modern management system for the defense industry, coming after taiwan, the u.s., and china rebalanced forces for what the biden administration called strategi

eventually will come off. >> a taper is much more on autopilot. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keenean ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone.

3% next year, we are still growing well above potential. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: sperry thought for an equity market bear. -- spare a thought for an equity market bear. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. up 22, up another 0.5% on the s&p. it is a four-day winning streak, within one present from all-time highs. tom: the way we do it this way is an impulse. must watch, must listen in minutes, gina martin adams will discuss and link this into earnings like netflix this afternoon. jonathan: we've had that big churn beneath the surface. a lot going on. at the index level, is it fair to say this is one resilient equity market, tom? tom: the gloom crew has been crushing it. we heard this morning about sluggish growth in inflation, and maybe you can indoor from that. this idea of slug-flation. jonathan: we are staring down all-time highs on the s&p 500. the least bullish survey from the bank of america fund managers survey in a year. nixon's of that. lisa: if you tamp -- make sense of that. lisa: if

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. on radio, on television, a most interesting day. a market lift that has a different character to it. it is a market lift wrapped around fed speak. jonathan: where do the equity bears go? four days of gains into tuesday, striking distance of all-time highs on the s&p 500, and the fed speak front and center because we are doing this with increasing rate hikes at the fed. tom: it is going to be interesting to see how they do. they separate taper from rates. i think i am more focused on the rate chat than the taper chat. jonathan: totally. the taper chat is done. let's have a conversation about interest rates. they have not been successful. the objective is to separate the taper talk from guidance. they have not been successful increasingly pricing and interest rate hikes. that is what they need to push back against this week. tom: to me, it is about slower growth. you wonder, is there a fiscal drag if washington gets nothing done on infrastructure, nothing don

>> if economists are right, it is probably an accident. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. jobs day, m

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance," tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. nathan: new quarter, same problems. this is bloomberg surveillance live on tv. your equity market -14 off the lows, down one third of 1%. goodbye, q3, tk. tom: we have to line up the ducks for the fourth quarter and there's a lot of things to worry about. the wall of worry is not so much about inflation but what inflation does to corporate america. jonathan: under two weeks from earnings with jp morgan. corporate america has some explaining to do. tom: it will be in the conference calls. no one will pay attention to revenue, it may be you get a nominal gdp surprise, but i will take the point that they will be in selected sectors, some margin mysteries. jonathan: revenue falls to the bottom line. lisa: how much has been priced in? we've seen pockets of real selloff among a number of big tech players. you wonder if that is more with bed, bath & beyond. jonathan: could you go through the schedule for d.c.? lisa: basically a lot of phone calls, people having discussions. i wonder what the

tom keene looking for some attention. you can have it in a moment. tom: i have to go home. jonathan: all-time high for the equity market around the corner. tom: what impresses me today as we have eight reasons to go down and we didn't. i got the booster shot. it didn't hurt, you were there, it was great. let's go. get your booster shot, get vaccinated. there is the headline. new york city required covid vaccinations for all public employees. dow jones, there you go. let's move on. lisa: i'm very charged. jonathan: help me out. lisa: not only are we nearing all-time highs, we see 10 year yields continuing declines of the highest level since may of this year. the idea of higher inflation, a higher yield isn't scaring the equity bowls. it actually shows faster sales offset by lower margins but still optimism. >> let's get to the price action . equity market up 29. bond yields unchanged. in the fx market, we can talk a little bit about the exit of the blunders bank. -- of the bundesbank. 82.24 for crude. lisa: which fed speakers are going to speak. this follows yesterday's rash

tom keene started the weekend at yesterday. he is with us this morning though. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> the u.s. is one step closer to investing -- defaulting it. the senate passed a bill that raises the debt limit through december 3. the measure goes to the house which will approve it next week. democrats in congress are starting to discuss how to make cuts in the sweeping social spending bill. the president had proposed an outline. now he is willing to go down. joe manchin says he could only support $1.5 trillion. majority leader -- journalists have been awarded the nobel peace prize. they were honored for their courage is fight for freedom of expression. a key hurdle has been removed on a deal that would reshape the tax landscape for multinationals. ireland will abandon its 12.5% tax rate. the organization is having a crucial meeting on taxes. elon musk is moving tesla's corporate headquarters to austin, texas. they are building a new factory in austin. they are the latest to move to texas to avoid taxes. hewlett-packard and charles schwab have done it. global

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market up another 0.4%. so far, so good. tom: the vix under 15. there's a reaffirmation

i'm alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom we are getting deeper into earnings season, 80 4% -- tom, we are getting deeper into earnings season. so far so good. jonathan: i read -- tom: i really want to emphasize that this is not a quiet day. there's a terrific slow on economics, finance investment, and off of it as well. jonathan: we do have two commissions with some research written for you. is the dow jones stupid? what's that about? tom: laidler made an observation and i completely missed this. in the flaunted dow, everybody -- the flawed down. everybody looks in the investment world, it is growthier. he nailed that it's not copper anymore. jonathan: hardly anybody has allocated to the dow jones index. do you listen to what they say or watch what they do? tom: i watch what they watch. which according to google trends is four times the dow. jonathan: and then pay money to the other index. tom: we have to do both. lisa: i'm gonna let you guys decide the important developments of the dow jones but i do want to pick up on

trying slowly to return to the fairytale we had before. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keeneerro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz

tom keene, you've seen it all week. the bloom -- the gloom crew taking one on the chin. tom: the week started on wednesday with the banks earnings. the banks are in business and there minting money. jonathan: we will wrap up bank earnings and about two hours. yields were lower through the week. the back end of the week, a lift. 10 to 1.5458. lisa: the biggest change in the narrative is companies can deal with the supply chain disruptions with the higher input costs because the revenues are turbocharged and the consumer keep spending. we will get a read on that at 8:30. september u.s. retail sales expected to come out softer because of auto sales. you start to see a bit of a gain. still softer. people are looking past this. bank of america seymour credit card loans, and is what has led bank of america to be the winner. yesterday shares rising the most going back to january. 8:30 to caps off all of the bank earnings, goldman sachs coming out with theirs. a lot of people looking at investment banking revenue. to take a look at where we are over the past year, these are massi

worrying about the cycle again, that is a different story. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. in

>> we are a very long way from stagflation. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathanlisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. on radio, and television, within earnings

with the idea that central banks are going to be dovish. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. in this hour, do you have the courage to be in the market?

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market positive five on the s&p, up a little more than 0.1%. jp morgan first out of the gate. tom: i think it is being underplayed. everyone looks at the stock price and says so what. they are doing fine. i thought dames diamond -- i thought james dimon's opening salvo, forget the gloom. jonathan: if you had a headline, things are improving. lisa: however, there is another headline underneath some of the numbers, and that is lending. average lending going up, being driven by the corporations, not consumers. you are still not skin consumer loan growth. to me, that indicates this question mark around how much resilience there will be. jonathan: the equity market not doing much of the back of this. equity futures on the s&p advancing five points, up a little more than 0.1%. 8:30 eastern time with cpi in america. going into that, yields lower by a basis point or two to 1.56 12%. let's check in with bloomberg's sonali basak. year-over-year, the comps really quite tough. just ru

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: big week ahead. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. your equity market down 23, negative zero .5%. earnings season begins unofficially this week. tom: i really agree with you. we spent the last hour in celebration of the nobel prize. the inflation data, and i agree with you, the mystery of this earnings season. jonathan: no mystery on the performance of bank stocks this year. year-to-date, up almost 40% of the kbw banks index. tom: grinding like brent with the vanilla spread. the difference between the 10 year and the two-year was 120 basis points. it is now 129 basis points. jonathan: have you got a word on energy? $81 handle on wti. tom: i've always believed that the fancy suits and ties underestimate when this kicks in. i was in l.a. giving a speech or something years ago. i looked out the window, and gasoline across the street said four dollars a gallon, and that really woke me up. painted

jonathan: kailey leinz with us today, tom keene, jonathan ferro. rward to more of that production down the road. tom: you are so sensitive this morning. jonathan: the question i get the most often is " do you actually like each other?" that is pure love! this is bloomberg. ♪ this halloween, xfinity rewards is offering up some spooky-good perks. like the chance to win a universal parks & resorts trip to hollywood or orlando to attend halloween horror nights. or xfinity rewards members, get the inside scoop on halloween kills. just say "watch with" into your voice remote for an exclusive live stream with jamie lee curtis. a q&a with me! join for free on the xfinity app. our thanks your rewards. moving is a handful. no kidding! fortunately, xfinity makes moving easy. easy? -easy? switch your xfinity services to your new address online in about a minute. that was easy. i know, right? and even save with special offers just for movers. really? yep! so while you handle that, you can keep your internet and all those shows you love, and save money while you'

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning to all of you to get lisa abramowicz, kailey leinz info jonathan ferro, and i'm tom keene. we have a catholic president visiting the vatican. we will go there now as president biden begins his trip in rome. the g20 meetings, and then on to glasgow. we have seen and -- seen him come into seen peter square, seeing the vatican gardens, and no awaiting the visit with his pope, pope francis. really extraordinary to see these images after what we saw in the early 1960's with john fitzgerald kennedy. now, president biden visits the vatican. kailey: this is a president who has not been shy about his faith. he has made it very clear throughout his service as a public servant that his faith is very important to him. of course, he is arriving at the vatican in the context of a very important g20 meeting in rome prior to him heading to glasgow. climate is going to be really front and center on the agenda. there's a few key players present. tom: what is so important about this, he

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. on radio, and television, within earnings season. lots to talk about. here at 8:00 a.m. wall street time, a lot of smaller companies streaming out. all in all, earnings better-than-expected. jonathan: the prevailing mood coming into earnings season was one of fear, not of hope. here of margins, we have not seen that any massive way this morning. so far, so good. that has been the story of the quarter. there have been some losers, but there have been winners as well. it is big tech after the close. we get alphabet and microsoft. tom: and the real emphasis here on technology, and of course, many now trillion dollar companies. it will be fascinating to see the conference calls of big tech , how they frame out the holiday season and how they begin to get into 2022. jonathan: with the bar getting higher and higher, and that is the concern around jeffe ries' comments right now. tom: i read every word of joe feldman this morning on amazon. it is real simple. look

meeting next week, and we will get the taper announcement, and event immediately on thursday morning, tom keenego, ok, when will they raise rates? tom: that is exactly it, how did he know i would say it like that? thank you, michael. an improvement on the day, futures -19. with a reset view on the american economy, michelle meyer, bank of america merrill lynch managing director is joining us. what did you take about 2% yesterday? michelle: it came around her expectations. we are holding to our view that the fourth quarter should show a rebound. we have stronger signs of consumer spending. when we look at our card data, we have a really healthy move higher in spending with the services economy re-engaging, with potentially an early start to the holiday shopping season, so we think we will see stronger consumer spending, business investment continuing, and contribution from inventories. so, our forecast is 6% real gdp growth in q4, a nice pickup from the third quarter. tom: major inside baseball. how can you count inventories with the upset of supply shock? michelle: this is going to get wonky --

lisa: you need to tell the story of united kingdom to tom keene. : are we going to go to london? tom: the desk patrol is out looking for a desk. jonathan: that is the only reason you won't come? tom: it would look good. lisa: take a greyhound. jonathan: we will work on it. two london? -- to london? lisa: [laughter] jonathan: kathy jones is coming up. before that, mary from gm offers decent numbers from general motors. heard on radio and seen on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> in london we may be rushing to the pubs after work, in the u.s., democrats are trying a new approach to taxation to pay for president biden's agenda. that would affect around 700 people, those with at least a billion dollars in assets. meanwhile, a separate -- to pay at least 15% tax rate. president biden is zeroing in on whether to nominated jerome powell for another term. the president met with treasury aids to review candidates. he is not settled on a choice and it is unclear whether he is leaning towards reappointing powell or replacing him. xi jinping is calling for breaking n

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. rate hike conversation starting much earlier than expected. tom: it is the shock and awe of the bank earnings last night. as we heard from lori calvasina, may be a tilt towards something more positive. this is the ambiguity. do higher interest rates signal gloom or a constructive and spirited economy? jonathan: this equity market signaling resilience right now. we are within 1.5% of record highs on the s&p coming into monday, in the face of a conversation about higher rates, and the face of a conversation about slower growth in china. tom: i'm going to go to the vix, 17.53 is a good place to start a monday morning. but i do take your point on the global slowdown. i thought jp morgan was really strong friday evening, michael feroli and the team, and bruce kaz munroe writing really showed the nuances -- and bruce castor and -- bruce kasman writing that they really showed the nuances. lisa: this really goes to the point we were making earlier in the show, which is how do they hike rates

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. it is a tuesday before a wednesday, and we welcome all of you on radio, on television, to earnings season. it is upon us and it will adjust our economics, our finance and our investment, and the political landscape. jp morgan, we forget how big these things are. 260,000 employees. they coined $336 million in revenue per day. jonathan: and a massive capital return program in the mix as well. factor in higher rates. what does that mean? banks have really big-time. the kbw bank index up more than 10%. cpi tomorrow, retail sales on friday. a big theme has gripped investors coming into this earnings season. it is gross risk to the downside, inflation risk to the upside -- growth risk to the downside, inflation risk to the upside. tom: is it buy the rumor, sell the news, or buy the news, sell the rumor? jonathan: and how the policy maker response to it. the federal reserve decision november 3, before we get there, october 28, which is when we get apple numbers, t

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. in this hour, claims. it is my most elegant chart. there's a persistency to lesser claims and a better america. that dovetails with what we see in this early earnings season. jonathan: earnings are good so far. we came into earnings season worried because we saw nike, we saw bed, bath & beyond struggling to meet demand with supply-side issues. it is always going to be about who handles the cost pressure. have been success stories. unilever is one of them, boosting prices the most since 2012, and the consumer able to absorb that. if you need to, repeat the act a few more times. tom: there it is. the shorts are out there. the people saying it is top, top, top. i don't see catharsis. do you see taxi cabdrivers telling you what to do with tesla? jonathan: i have not, although when they told me what to do with bitcoin, i should have listened. i missed out big time. yields are up by two basis points on tends to 1.67 percent. yields up twos as well. yields up for

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. m: good morning, everyone. a monday on radio, on television , to reset towards a jobs report . in moments we will reset on the fixed income markets, the signals of price and yield. range bound, but for how long. jonathan: the big question into earnings season. let's quote david kostin of goldman sachs. "the risk is the supply chain normalization takes longer than expected and that unmet demand is not recouped in final quarters." tom: bruce katzman of jp morgan saying forget the gloom in the pacific rim. jonathan: bruce acknowledging the wide range of outcomes into next year. that is the number two issue for this market. if you can get through earnings season, ok, can you establish with the rest of next year looks like? i don't think we can. payrolls this friday, the range is from 200,000 750,000 -- from 200,000 to 750,000. lisa: there's the obvious debt ceiling debate which could eventually disrupt the t-bill market, but you are talking about the headline numbers. what are we doing wit