with lisa abramowicz, tom keene, and jonathan ferro. nasdaq down three percentage points. ♪ >> condemn this barbaric attack and the cynical arguments to justify it. it is president putin who is bringing war back to europe, and in these dark hours, the european union and its people stand by ukraine and its people. jonathan: bringing war back to europe, the words of the european commission president. from new york, good morning. futures down by more than 2% on the s&p. on the nasdaq, down by 2.7%. it is brutal. those are lower, the haven been taking treasuries higher, yields down by 12 basis points to 1.87. crude has a brief break into 100 handle. triple digit crude on brent, $99 38 cents, almost of a percentage points. the headline of the last 30 minutes came from ukraine's border guard service. in the statement, "russian military vehicles breached into the kyiv region." tom: 55 miles up the river, and this is belarus north of kyiv and there they are. as you mentioned in the break, and greater london, it is not kyiv but it is the region.

pressures come down . >> the fed needs to move quickly. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. tom:

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, john farrow and lisa. jon: waking up for our audience worldwide. good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance live alongside tom and lisa. we're waking up to disputed claims from the russia and u.s. tom: things have changed and maybe we're not back to the bloom from a few days ago but there's a tension out there. the race of gold, 1900 an ounce and gold is one indicator of the continental european tensions. jon: the u.s. disputing claims the russians are pulling back and the russians disputing the u.s. claims of a buildup. i don't know what the market wants to do, down .6%. tom: the ruble walk weakened by the terse statement. secretary blinken made very clear that he's looking at action phrases. there were two action phrases i could discover in that statement and it's real simple. all it comes down to is he's got a few action points and they have to respond. there and there was a headline an hour ago from lavrov saying they'll respond. jon: they are gripped by headlines. lisa: you don't have

the here and now earnings, not those far in the future. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keeneand lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. on radio, on television, a momentous thursday. claims in 30 minutes, but far more

making tom keene proud. of the big pieces of the equation is that the bond-bull market was dead. hose. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 volker kisses. kriti: it looks like perhaps in the long term, the bulls are still winning. the other side of the argument is if you continue to see persistent inflation coming to the yields break above this long-term decline in the trendline? we are not there yet, but we could be. tom: former chairman john fisher, where was he working, blackrock? fisher is watching this, he's tearing up. this is modern economics. kriti, homerun, over the turnpike. that sets of cameron crise on our markets blog. i'm sorry, cameron. kriti nailed the rate of change of yield that we see now. stan fischer was huge on that with his tenure at the fed. we are moving fast, aren't we? cameron: we are. the question is whether we will continue to move fast moving forward. you can perhaps argue that the rate of change in yields might slow from here. certainly at the last few auctions, central banks have stepped up huge, took down a record proportion of the 10 year sale yesterday. so it might be

it is not you, it's not me, it is tom keene. these headlines coming from amazon, no strategy to boost growth to unnecessary price hikes. they have production constraints linked to labor. this is a fascinating one. tom: i know the story very well. it harkens back centuries. the family decided -- they did this in france and worldwide -- to set up small pods of labor in different, smaller cities. it works great. this is where the leather that you are buying every friday comes from. it hit a massive constraint. jonathan: $9,000 burke and bags -- burkin bags? jonathan: i did in article once on jane birkin. the chief excise -- chief fx strategist joins us. they are planning mandatory covid mass testing for hong kong. they are trying to avoid a lockdown. we have zero covid in china. the stage is set for this inflation story to fade into the back half of this year, if we can reopen the world. we are thinking about china. you think we can reopen the world? >> i think we will be able to reopen the world. it will reopen in a confusing sort

with tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am to nothing pharaoh. -- i am jonathan ferro.get people reaching out saying just use the h word, hyperinflation. i want to remind you of where zimbabwe is. the central bank just maintained their interest rate of what? 60%. let's not use the h word when it does not apply. tom: that has been true for decades. there is some fancy mathematics involved that we don't do on monday but the answer is, you are right. it is overused and you are correct to call on it right now. let's go to the pandemic and get an update. certainly good news for america. joshua sharp steen joins us, from the johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health. we are beginning to see politicians act. jonathan ferro brought up the positivity rate. can we have a rule-based or single rule system to unwind our policies on the pandemic, wrapped around a ratio like a positivity rate? joshua: i think positivity rate is important but probably not enough, because it depends on the number of tests and getting tested and a lot of tests are not getting reported but the conce

jonathan: let's get the view from tom keene -- tom: what happened over the weekend and what we will really focus on this week, particularly with retail sales coming in in a few days, is growth. mike wilson mentioned date. he is focused on growth. we have been talking about it. i think we have been upfront about this. at the end of the day, it is about economics and what is gdp going to become a real and nominal. jonathan: when you read through the mike wilson note, consumer confidence friday, fresh decade low. that is where his focus is right now. higher prices are starting to hurt confidence. tom: the bulls was a we have had a nice washout, correction, if you will, and you have to go optimistic here. again, we start the week focused on growth and focused on these raging debates, plural. jonathan: futures on s&p down 0.8%, down 150 or so on the nasdaq. -- jonathan: do you want to come back to that in a moment? have you said happy valentine's day to mrs. keene? let's try and have a serious show. tom: i know. jonathan: thank you. lisa: how is that serious show looking -- working out for you?

jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, i am tom farrow. the s&p up .7%.it softer, comfortably south, $80 94 cents. euro-dollar just about positive. coming back in a bit. euro-dollar 11442. positive a little more than .1 %. what is about to happen in new york, governor hochul about to get rid of the mask mandate. what is happening in hong kong, china? tom: it is a different world and in hong kong it is a different world than the olympics in beijing. we get it needed the on global wall street thinking in hong kong. it is an absolute shock. we are a distance from what you are living, but to see that there are three nonstop flights from hong kong to singapore 1600 miles off of singapore air with no flights is jaw-dropping. is hong kong moving to singapore? >> hong kong has always been branded as asia's world series but has been dubbed on social media as asia's isolated city. the airport essentially shut as is the crossing to mainland china. it is absolutely hammering sentiment within hong kong and having an effect on the economy to the point that people movin

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, lisa ramos, and jonathan ferro. tom: most interesting and truly historic friday. we are thrilled gina martin adams with equity perspective in four lisa abramowicz. what we have heard this morning has truly been historic. i'm going to go right away to the strategist at bank of america, mark cabana. jonathan: looking for seven hikes this year, 50 basis points possible in march. it is the balance sheet reduction, one trillion this year, one trillion year. 3:00 matters to them because that is when the new york fed puts out there monthly purchase schedule. some people think they should end it now. for some people a little later. tom: back this morning with craig torres, decades of work monitoring the fed. makes it clear this is a fed that does not want to get out in front of the calendar. jonathan: this is a fed that is so far behind. the facts on the ground and where they are, miles apart. the optics are almost embarrassing now. inflation is 7.5, and they are still doing qe. that makes sense to nobody. tom: we are going

tom keene, lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan arrow. futures back 0.7%. tom: the nasdaq 100 down 16-ish %. maybe not as inflammatory as what everybody is waking up to. more important is the movement of two standard deviations. we are not at a correction, but negative 10% is negative 10%. jonathan: secretary blinken canceling his meeting with lavrov. what is next from here? tom: what is next is how will mr. payton respond -- mr. putin respond? the natural gas price based out of the netherlands is not what it was at the beginning of the year, but it is here to chile relevant -- usually elevated. jonathan: that address from the president yesterday, to defend freedom abroad. what are they going to do to offset this? a deal with iran? a tax holiday on gas? lisa: i am not getting a cohesive message. where is the cohesive message around domestic energy? what is the plan to move away from russian gas at a time when europe cannot make up for what russia supplied? jonathan: bond yields higher around the world. it started in new zealand. we got a .5 basis point hike

tom keene, lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro. the nasdaq down four points. lift on yields to the curve in the treasury market up two basis points to 1.90 377. our higher --are higher yields a good thing? some think that these shifts that these problems are nominal, tom, they say that they are finally diminishing and that is good news. tom: we will have to see what the euro's -- but the euro does. i am using the euro as -- currency as a litmus paper. jonathan: had a bit of a bounce on the euro-dollar. 1.1426. let us see how far they are able to push this. tom: i read one of the articles carefully this morning and i have no idea what has happened in the last 24 hours. joe mathieu here to translate. the smart show, sound on on bloomberg radio. if you do it on nord stream 2, what is the biggest mystery? joe: who actually said what, to think that we had such a carefully choreographed dance, which seemed to play well for biden and schulz's respective audiences, we are not sure where the german stand. joe biden, we will bring it to an end, a direct quote when he wa

well and does not over tighten into a slowing economy. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone.

if you could hear the commercial break, tadeo, amh, tom keene trying to speak french for about two minutes work, tom. futures down 0.1% on the s&p. can you imagine how much an advertiser would pay for that spot? 0.7% on tens. tom: enough with the french. we will leave it there. annmarie hordern with us washington and maria tadeo in brussels. very symbolically, maria tadeo today at the nato headquarters, placed on the airfields of belgium of world war i and world war ii, when germany occupied to them. that is the back story to all of the emotions of nato and the mixed conundrum and the rest of it as well. what headlines are you looking for today in what has so far been a quiet wednesday? maria: really, the focus in nato today, defense ministers from all of the nato countries are meeting behind me. they say they want to see real proof that russia is pulling back troopthey say russia has ds many times. i had one official from estonia telling me i would never believe a video filmed, recorded, and released i the russians. i want to see our intel confirm they are putting back the troops. this is

alongside tom keene and lisa, i'm jonathan. your nasdaq 5%. tom: microsoft, apple, now google. amazon tomorrow, facebook this afternoon. it's a renewed confidence in they got. jonathan: let's talk about the numbers, not the stock split. 33% at revenue, growth in the google business just phenomenal. tom: a long time ago they made his acclaim on sales and revenue, start at the top line and go down. that's what we see here, and it's true with apple as well, where they reaffirmed iphone. but the answer is not 30, you go down to 25, you go down to 2020. what's your run rated for google out into the distant future? that's how you adjust price. >> alphabet up more than 10%. lisa: given the fact it was advertising revenue, just driving facebook's gains, though we've seen in premarket it seemed like the cyclical push still very much there. i'm just getting whiplash, because the narratives have gone to a slowing growth scenario and people have gotten too sanguine about the fed, to oh,my goodness, growth keeps going. jonathan: how quickly is the price moving over the last three days? tom:

, from new york city, good morning, this is newburgh surveillance live on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa hymowitz. your equity market is down one third of 1%. tom: every once in a while, it has to go to down but it didn't go down as a correction in a general statement. it didn't go down as much as we but but it was just an adjustment stop we are focusing on equities at the top of each hour. jonathan: big adjustment in the treasury market. it is a guessing game right now. tom: everyone is adjusting. i know you saw the goldman sachs note and it's a portland that suddenly the boom economy map is gone. jonathan: 3.2% on the gdp consensus and you wonder how many people start to follow. lisa: they might downshift their gdp estimates but latent estimates tell where they are. the estimates are all over the place for what the actual path the fed members take. jonathan: have you kept up the fed speak? lisa: i have watched it all. it's interesting because there is a paradox underlying what they are talking about. they want to slow the economy and not torpedo it, how to they do it? this is

tom keene, kailey leinz, jonathan ferro. tom: i was watching curling.jonathan: don't get me started on the different platforms. that drives me nuts. tom: canada-norway, it was good. i don't remember. jonathan: futures down 1/3 on the nasdaq. tom: that's like me at 9:00 a.m. jonathan: you and i should commentate on curling on radio. that's what it's going to sound like. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> i am ritika gupta. today's report on inflation in the u.s. could push the federal reserve to its largest rate hike in more than two decades. the consumer price index is out at 8:00 a.m. u.k. time. 7.2% annual increase may pressure the fed to consider its first half percentage point hike since 2000. eight university of michigan economist will become the first black female to lead one of the federal reserve's 12 districts. susan collins will be the next president and a rotating voter on the central bank's policy. russia and belarus are beginning their largest joint military drills in years today. they are being watched closely by the u.s. and europe amid tensions ove

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. on radio, on television, earnings season upon us, and a lot of other news as well. looking at the acclaimed function, the earnings pour out. it is corporate america adapting to the cards they were given. jonathan: last year wasn't about the fed. it was about corporate earnings. it was about resilient margins and companies that adapted. the start of this year has been about the federal reserve adjusting at a big way in some point -- adjusting in a big way at some point. who of ubs writing -- luke kawa of ubs writing, it is a growth scare. things are moving very quickly. tom: that is a real gdp analysis. let's forget about the inflation story. let's frame it. jonathan: consensus at the moment, the median estimate up at 3.8%. does that come in as the year progresses. does the federal reserve into a weaker economy, an economy that is decelerating through the year ahead? tom: lisa abramowicz, you featured that this morning, the staggering idea of the fed into ma

stocks have been less bad. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa: good morning, everyone. on radio, on television, on an eventful friday, the headlines, may be

jonathan: because people don't use facebook like tom keene does. tom: it was a surprise on the sell side because these executives feel they play with a different rulebook. they should have communicated these challenges way out front. jonathan: i made the same complaint about net flicks. when accompanied this big has market moves like this, is it corporate communications or does it tell you something about the market we are in today? tom: i believe we've got mike wilson lined up today. this is about individual stock selection which seems to be front and center this year. jonathan: it makes up 5% of the nasdaq 100. i am on tiktok. jonathan: you carry on. futures are -2.3%. on the s&p 500, down by more than 1% stop the 10 year yield is 176.99. lisa: today is such a pivotal day bank policy. bank of england will come up with their rate decision at 7 p.m. eastern time. they will be followed by press conferences by the respective presidents and the governor. how much of a surprise will we see here? the ecb is more interesting to me. can they signal that th

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. about 30 minutes into the session, we are down 1.5%. words you do not want to wake up to, war in europe. tom: there was a headline, russia invades ukraine, and it was more than an invasion. it was a multi-front invasion. the news flow extremely supple right now. i know we go to henry and moscow. what is important that henry in mustache henry in moscow. -- henry in moscow. jonathan: the president of the united states right now any meeting. we wait for the response. tom: we have lots of internal memos. we had one in washington sent to me. there were two camps at the white house. there needs to be singular action. you wonder, will there be that, and will it be coordinated? jonathan: the dark words of the russian president earlier today, bowing to "demilitarize" the country and replace its leaders. lisa: we are hearing reports of heavy fighting in several places. we are hearing of military bases being targeted, as well as ground troops. jonathan we are hearing from senators as well. senat

of fire and ice, and we think it is going to be icier. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keenejonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: payrolls 90 minutes away. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures on the s&p -0.25%. 125,000 for this payrolls morning. tom: i believe there is a number that has never been a greater fiction and that number. it is a movable feast south because of omicron. jonathan: and we have no idea if it is a plus sign or minus sign in front of that. that is how movable it is. tom: today you've got to look at wages because on this jobs day, i'm looking at one number on the bloomberg terminal that may be out to a new high, $82 $.94 on brent crude. jonathan: just look at the other central bank, the ecb. the more recent pivot in the last week. lisa: i'm surprised the market has not reacted more, despite the fact we have talked about the main reason that yields have shifted so low. yet we are not seeing an addit

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. tom: jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and john -- tom keene on a four-day week. we welcome all of you on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. it's about different nations with different sanctions. jonathan: it a different interpretation of events as well. i call recent russian action and amounting to a renewed russian invasion of the ukraine. will the u.s. use the same language? many people doubt that. the u.k. making their move. is that move proportional to the prime minister moments ago and three high net worth individuals? tom: help me out with a better market. small caps, a little green. the bear market started with a gentleman from germany under the pipeline and the baltic sea. jonathan: there is a turnaround in the equity market. futures down about .1%. 93.60 w ti on brent. very close to 100 earlier. 99 then backing away. the west is not targeting the three state owned russian banks that really matter for the oil, gas, and other commodity trades. vtb, sberbank, and gazprom b

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. it is jobs day. on radio, on television, we will go beneath the headline data in 30 minutes. the oddest of odd labor reports. jonathan: could be a wild number. no one is paying much attention to it because of omicron. 125,000 is the estimate. then onto to cpi next week. as people expect it is going to have a 7% handle again. given where crude is right now, when does this stop? it feels like we are reaching a tipping point with this conversation. we have gone from inflation stock to potentially a rate shock, and may be in the near to medium term we will be talking about a growth shock. tom: adjustment over the weekend, including to what jon is going to talk to secretary walsh about in the 9:00 hour. i just did the math on $100 a barrel, $108 a barrel roughly, and that new price adjusted is in the vicinity of $119 and $120 a barrel. we are not that far away from it. jonathan: even with the economy growing as quickly as it is growing, the economy keeps pointin

more differentiated -- more differentiation within that. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keenebramowicz. tom: we welcome all of

this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. our studios in new york, we welcome you on radio and television and we continue to monitor what we see in moscow, what we hear from ukraine. all of it falls back to what the bloomberg terminal says. it is a better market. jonathan the optics improved around russia and ukraine and now we need to see the substance . he hasn't seen the facts on the ground yet. tom: here's a set of headlines that we are watching. three sets of headlines. russia with its silence in meetings, ukraine moments ago, and nato stepping in with a link -- with a long presser. what matters to you of the three sets of headlines? jonathan: what we have heard from sergei lavrov is there are troops possibly going back to their bases after what he calls drills. point number two, the nato secretary-general would like to see that withdrawal on the ground. he hasn't seen that yet. he wants to see evidence. i think that is what everyone wants to see, the substance to backup the better optics. the markets a

50 basis points, the fed should walk through that door. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. thrilled you are with us on radio, on television. the message this morning within the quiet of the headlines, a

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. nathan: i am just here to see tom's impression of someone curling for the olympics again. can we do that again? tom: never done it. [laughter] jonathan: futures down 0.1% on the s&p. we are negative on the nasdaq 100, too. lisa: look at those bond yields in italy. the question of the morning is how far will the ecb allow yields to go up, and addition to the movements that tom was just doing. but where is the put of the central banks? you see yields move pretty violently upward. jonathan: up 13 on tens. it adds to a move from last week. tom: there's is a real mystery here. i go back to marvin good come from a controversial paper at the jackson hole meeting years ago. we've got the right guest coming up in moments on this. what is going to be the seachange on the shift from negative rates to positive rates within europe, and frankly worldwide? jonathan: president lagarde speaks a little later. your focus, what is it? tom: my focus is how she will readjust off of what you mentioned last w

tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro.ers are negative two point -- futures are negative on the s&p 2.5%. crude is higher, up by almost 7%. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ if you're a small business, there are lots of choices when it comes to your internet and technology needs. but when you choose comcast business internet, you choose the largest, fastest reliable network. you choose advanced security for total peace of mind. and you choose fiber solutions with speeds up to 10 gigs to the most small businesses. that's virtually everywhere we serve. the choice is clear: make your business future ready with the network from the most innovative company. comcast business. powering possibilities™. ♪ jonathan: demilitarized the country and replace its leaders, the goal of the russian president for ukraine. equities down by 2.4% on the s&p. on the nasdaq we are down by 3%. coming into today, the story was already bleak for equities. we take more weight off the gains of last year. that is the equity story. we talked about military vehicles

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everybody, on radio, on television, it's all about google. the alphabet from a to z, it is up. january 26, the v.i.x., 31.96. that was my entry point. i missed it. jonathan: what a change. we've taken a big bite out of the losses over the last three days. three days of gains, tom, up more than 7% on the nasdaq 100, and we're set to add weight to it. futures up another 1.7%. tom: it's the quality of the gains, and what i'm seeing percolating away from tech is, oh, yeah, it's everybody else as well, and it's about a resilient margin level versus the gloom margins will disappear. jonathan: and how much can you see ad growth in the google business, up more than 3% on the quarter, is that a confidence play for you, just a nice read on the broader economy, despite what we've gone through in the last couple of months? tom: i'm going to partition and say the halves of technology, whether it's direct technology and not, and we got meta, facebook this afternoon, and amazon, bu

. -- jonatha -- with lisa abramowicz and tom keene, i am jonathan ferro. rmany, yield higher, crude lower by 3.3%, t.k.. tom: the bounce across 24 hours, what i will say in the last 20 minutes for pros glued to this across equities, bonds, currencies, commodities this devolves off of headlines and i'm looking at rush out right now. they are literally coming out in real time and we are reacting to this. ukraine recognizing russia violates -- that gets you going. jonathan: and then the reaction from boris johnson, some of the headlines from him reacting to the last couple of days, looking closer at ownership of russian companies, the uk's the epicenter of some of that discussion. we think that russia is prepared to move at any time. we've heard that from the administration over the last few weeks. seeing russian openness to conversations. the final headline seems to be what is driving things at the moment. the optics, the style, the approach seems to be improving. i think what we would like to see his substance going forward. tom: we'll wait for germany and r

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tk, did you see the news?ing workers the option of a four-day workweek. still got to work your hours, but i

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.p -0.25%. 125,000 for this payrolls morning. tom: i believe there is a number that has never been a greater fiction and that number. it is a movable

these are not linear decisions. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance," with tom keene, jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz. tom: an historic day on i can --

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. tom: we welcome all of you. maria tadeo in brussels, and reordered in washington. i think we have to rip things up at the top of the show. everybody died in. i am sick -- everybody dive in. i am seeing huge moves in the two year yield. the markets are the litmus paper of the political debate. jonathan: a monster move on thursday on cpi then we backed away as the geopolitical risk started to bubble away and that we start to build that yield backup, getting back up to 1.55 on my screen. tom: off the bloom earlier this morning, green on the screen. happy valentine's day. the dow now up 31 points. lisa: to me this all highlights how much a lack of conviction there is. if you look at implied volatility, i keep coming back to this. edward -- it has risen to the highest level since april 2020. is it a geopolitical risk to the downside or an inflationary impulse that could lead the fed to tighten too quickly. tom: the good news is we are not strategists. jonathan: it would be so difficult. ima

this is bloomberg surveillance live on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. your equity markets are up nicely. pretty tidy. tom: then nasdaq up with the vix back hundred 22. this is a sea change moment. we saw with microsoft, with apple, and google said once and for all this is different these companies are different and they have a playbook that is based on cash flow and profit. jonathan: before we get into the stock split, 33 percent ad revenue for google. these are real numbers in a massive business. tom: what is important and i go to general motors with the long-term price target from 54 to above 200 dollars at gm, what i will say is that what is common here is a new confidence that successful companies can get beyond the pandemic and generate again profit and cash flow. jonathan: the stock up in the premarket by almost 11%. a 20-1 stock split for alphabet. lisa: trying to make their shares more accessible to mom-and-pop investors. that they will be able to buy inside. you can buy fractional shares. that is an argument that has been discussed for a long ti

on equities, gina martin adams, tom keene, and myself just trying to keep up.s is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: what an end to this week. futures down. coming into friday, positive on the week. we are up by a 10th of 1%. teachers down by three quarters of 1%, a lot of by what is happening in the bond market off the back of inflation. what a difference 1/10 makes 10 basis points. that is enough. seven point 5% year-over-year, the separation between the federal reserve and the facts on the ground could not be wider. the move yesterday sticks. the curve is flatter. this is what i want to sit on here it off of the back of the biggest move since 2009 on the front end, front loading rate hikes, look at goldman. 25 basis points every time, perhaps 50 in march. the endpoint hasn't changed for a lot of people on wall street. we are just going quicker and doing more in a short amount of time. i wonder if the destination has to change. tom: the overlay is better on the pandemic period noticed yesterday for the first time since the itty-bitty between delta and omicron window, a q

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz.m new york city, for our audience worldwide, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures are lower by 0.7% on the s&p. we are staying on top of the story as it develops. russian forces closing on ukraine's capital. tom: developing on multiple fronts. we have many reports of sirens were a lot of the western media is.

from new york city, with tom keene, lisa jonathan ferro.e down a third of a percent on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: french president emmanuel macron says vladimir putin told him that russia would not escalate around ukraine but he did not offer any specific details. today, macron is in kiev to speak to the ukrainian president volodymyr zelensky. the u.s. is losing patience with china regarding trade agreements made during the trump administration. china pledged to buy an extra $200 billion in u.s. agriculture and energy products through the end of 2021. billy near peter thiel is leaving the board of meta to pursue donald trump's agenda, backing senate candidates who back the former president's policies. a divided u.s. supreme court has dealt a blow to minority voting rights. it is reinstating an alabama congressional map that creates only one district likely to elect a black representative. a lower court said federal law required a second one. the ruling ensures alabama voters will use the original republican drawn map in the elect

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. m: good morning, everyone. on bloomberg television, on bloomberg radio, and historic day. it is simple, the headline late in the evening, putin decides to conduct military operation in ukraine. the speed of military operation is stunning. jonathan: things have changed quickly. we are waking up to a very different europe and very different objectives of this russian president, perceived objectives. they have changed were markedly in just a few days. he russian president vowing to demilitarize ukraine and replace its leaders. it is no longer just about separatists in the donbass. tom: what is a single statistic that shows the angst of international relations? jonathan: i've got to say, away from crude, the front-end of the bond market. how that develops is going to be critical. a monster move at the front end. we have priced and more fed hikes. what happens from here for this federal reserve? that is the number one question for market put this up and's, for markets this morning. for you,

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. on radio, on television, on an eventful friday, the headlines, may be a dearth of headlines recently out of russia, but all eyes on belarus and the plexi. -- and the black sea. jonathan: that could be the story into the we can. we have talks scheduled. that improves things just a little bit. sentiment improves off the back of that. secretary blinken gets set to meet minister lavrov next week in europe. tom: oil a little bit in as well. david b uncle -- david bianco and for sizing -- emphasizing oil prices. let's talk about what stocks have done. they have looked at earnings such as deere and others and said, not bad. a lift this morning. jonathan: when it comes to a protect more broadly, a massive punch lower, down by 3% on the nasdaq 100. for me today, it is about the fed speak, the core of the federal reserve, getting a hold of the narrative around what to expect next month from the fed. maybe you hint of what we can get subs italy --what we can get subse

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. m: good morning, everyone. thrilled you are with us on radio, on television. the message this morning within the quiet of the headlines, a bounce, a recovering set of markets. jonathan: yields are moving with it, so what do we have? yields are pushing higher again at the front end and right through the curve. your curve is flatter. twos-tens, 37. tom: it is going to be the focus with our guest in a matter of minutes. the curve flattening, deft and from 0 -- flattening, distant from zero, distant from inversion, but it is the rate of change, the speed we move. jonathan: let's talk about the speed. bank of america says seven. where does this top out, and what is more important, the pace or the destination? tom: we will have to see. i am on the ruble watch right now. 80.3 the ruble, a weaker ruble in the last hour. lisa abramowicz, what matters is the auction watch. fold the auction action this afternoon into curve flattening. lisa: it is the same point jon just made. what is the longer-t

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. m: good morning, everyone. on radio, on television, across this nation, we welcome you. retail sales in 30 minutes. an important consumer metric. the buoyancy of this economy. the destruction of ukraine, russia, and washington. the secretary of state moments ago with a statement. jonathan: let's get to that statement. i will read it out verbatim. "the russian duma has stated it plans to send to president putin an appeal to recognize the peoples were publics is an abundant. it goes on to say, to be clear, this would amount to wholesale rejection of commitment send the minsk agreement's, which outline the process for full political and social integration of the ukraine region controlled by russian led forces and political proxies and's 2014. enactment of this resolution would further undermine ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, constitute a gross violation of international law,: to further question russia's engagement in diplomacy to achieve a peaceful resolution of this cr

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz i am jonathan ferro. takei tends at 195. tom: yields are on the move, this is a must listen and watch for all of you. i'm going to look at the real yield, it is moving. he mentioned the two year yield, we are in a 2% 10 year watch. jonathan: 195 on tens, we started the year at about 150 on a 10 year. what gets your attention now, the level or speed? tom: the rate change. we are going to go all in this hour. we had a big event friday, i got it wrong, we all got it wrong. it proceeds into tuesday, that is the headline. jonathan: we've got a big event thursday, cpa around the corner. lisa: the significance of this more -- moment, he of a concern that percolates over, then people come in and they brought the dip. you are not seen people come in and buy the dip when it comes to treasuries. that is significant at a time when it is really yields increasing into not inf

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. 24 hours to the cpi report. the jumble here, one day away from the inflation report, it is unusual. jonathan: the estimate, 7.2%. we are backing away from the highs we have seen on a 10-year treasury yield. on the two-year treasury yield, going into a really important print tomorrow morning. tom: into a successful three-year auction, there's other tea leaves here. we will get on to some normality. we see it in the equity markets, the nasdaq on a tear. jonathan: the mask mandates slowly getting chipped away, then all at once. tom: the kids, no masks in a week or so. lisa: perhaps. we have not actually heard. we are looking at the post-pandemic economy, and is it marked by a new kind of growth in inflation, or are we back to a new normal? it seems like the market is betting on a new normal that is better than the old. tom: i don't know if we made it up for the prime minister, living was covid. that is what we are going to do. jonathan:

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance," with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: an historic day on i can -- day for economics. mike wilson will join us with colson -- with caution on the equity markets. the swirl that mr. wilson has to take in, including history at the bank of england. jonathan: it has been 17 years since we had back to back rate hikes at the bank of england. 15 basis points last month. 25 basis points this morning. it could have been 50. that was not the 5-4 vote we were looking for. form embers of the mpc looking for a 50 basis point hike at the bank of england. under bailey saying something which i think is going to be controversial. the living cost crisis would be worse without rate hikes. that is what spoke them. inflation is higher than expected. that is where they want to move. others are taking completely the opposite view. tom: lagarde in 30 minutes in frankfurt. manus cranny will monitor that's conference. you see it on bloomberg radio, on bloomberg television. what is so important, you go from what the fed is doing, including the t

know that anyone prospers in an inflationary environment. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, and jonathan ferro. tom: most interesting

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. on radio, on television, a momentous thursday. claims in 30 minutes, but far more, we await comments from mr. putin and mr. lavrov as they respond to blinken and the united states, stoltenberg and general austin front and center this morning. jonathan: we are the same thing in the last one he for hours. we have not seen a pullback. we would like to see one. russia saying they have pulled back. that is the dispute we with up to this morning. tom: we are watching the market reaction. we will talk to michael holland about this new equity market and inflation in a moment. but as we await, as you said earlier, little bit of a nudge to angst, but it cuts either way across asset class. jonathan: it is i headline driven equity market. for now, no drama. for the fed, mike for early of jp morgan -- michael feroli of jp morgan talks seven hikes for the fed. suggesting that if the fed does not deliver what the market expects, you would get an adverse reaction in this m

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz.onathan: from new york city, for our audience worldwide, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures are lower by 0.7% on the s&p. we are staying on top of the story as it develops. russian forces closing on ukraine's capital. tom: developing on multiple fronts. we have many reports of sirens were a lot of the western media is. from the south into kyiv, as we monitor independence square, we have talked this morning about that bridge to crimea. jonathan: we need to talk about china, too. state media says they are urged to negotiate to address problems. tom: there have been a stream of headlines. not sure what to make of it, but it is evident that is the loan support for mr. boudin. -- mr. putin. jonathan: what are they negotiating over when a foreign leader comes to their country and says they want to demilitarize the country and change their leadership? lisa: honestly, the idea of where this -- of whether this is the loan supporter of vladimir putin, how much o

. >> this is an extended edition of "bloomberg surveillance," with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: the power of those words lost on nobody, "bringing more back to europe -- "bringing war back to europe." bringing forward severe, coordinated economic and financial sanctions, condemning belarus's involvement in aggression against ukraine. tom: it is the worst outcome of all the speculation we have seen, including the president possibly leadership with new use of american intelligence. to me, the dominant theme this morning, the military action in ukraine, ukraine is 785 miles wide east to west. jonathan: 90 minutes away from an address from the president of the united states in d.c., what are you looking for? tom: the president with complete application of sanctions, is bloomberg's expert on with the swift mumbo-jumbo. what we need to see is general hodges mentioned, what the troop deployment of nato is because general hodges said putin will not go after america. jonathan: we've got to work for the price action as well. on mastech 100, we are -- on nasdaq 100, w