>> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. it is a day most special, bloomberg surveillance this morning from the headquarters of the international monetary fund during their most historic crisis since world war ii with war in ukraine and food inflation. this is a most unique spring meeting. we have seen in one week. lisa: you set it up perfectly, reconsidering as the court try to understand what their new role is at a time of such crisis, entering into what could potentially be even worse. you are right to bring up food. tom: food crisis front and center. tom:for me what is so important, this will be a long -- we are lucky in the markets are quiet and. this is a moment of multiple crises for all of economic international -- international economics. we start strong. lisa: i'm struggling to understand exactly what the crisis is. in 1944, it was a monetary crisis and now it is a real crisis over goods -- crisis of goods. tom: and that may be the globalization theme. you talk about the globalization an

whether it happens in 2023 or 2024, that depends on the fed. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keenerro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. a most

this is bloomberg surveillance, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. futures are flat on the s&p and up a tent on the nasdaq. but there's only one stock to talk about. netflix is getting hammered. tom: it is really fundamental. some would say from the 50's and 60's, the new idiot box. streaming is strader this morning. jonathan: stocks are down this morning. they are explained to investors that they have gone against growth. any potential growth. largely, somewhat, how did this get out of their control? tom: we are going to do a lot of sophisticated financial review of that over the next day and coming days, but there is a point where growth switches to cath flow -- cash flow. can i make the switch that comcast did years ago? jonathan: when you thing about valuations you think about the real yield in the body -- body -- bond market. lisa: people a been watching this because it changes the dynamic. to put this in perspective, real yield was positive. it was normalcy. now it is an abnormal see, but we are getting back to that place. how does that move th

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. on radio and television, not your usual friday. a massive set up to a massive week next week. jonathan: cpi next week, most people on wall street looking for an eight handle and earnings from jp morgan after that and on the policy response from the ecb. a tough spot for central bankers. for many people they got themselves into it. tom: away from the tension in ukraine we have to go to what matters this morning and to meet as the bank of america downgrade. they look at transportation and other parts of the american economy and they see demand destruction. jonathan: bank of america downgrade nine of the 28 transports in their coverage. in the banks, seven straight days of losses on the kbw bank index. yields are higher, the purpose deeper. this is about demand destruction. let's look -- tom: let's look at the signals we see in this raging debate over recession, over where we will be, forget about q3 2023, how about q3 2022? everyone knows and equity land that lisa abra

jonathan: a picture of tom keene in the evening after a long meal and a lot of drinking. y word. did you hear that mom let's not? it was a certain tone. [laughter] let's not. jonathan: the alpha price, $54.20. tom: let's quote the dow. jonathan: let's not. tom: let's not. [laughter] jonathan: this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. bloomberg has learned twitter is on track to reach a deal with elon musk on the $43 billion takeover offer as early as today. still the talks are set to be fluid and a deal could be delayed or fall apart. twitter had previously considered supporting that attempt. u.s. secretary of state antony blinken and defense secretary lloyd austin met with ukraine's president volodymyr zelenskyy in kyiv sunday night, the highest level visit since russia invaded. the u.s. promised ukraine more military aid and said they cannot attempt a repeat of the war. in france, voters have given emmanuel macron a second term, winning more than 58% of the vote, but his 17 point margin was b

with tom keene, lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro.is bloomberg. >> keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world. i am ritika gupta. a long anticipated russian offensive has begun. russian forces are said to be targeting the region in the eastern part of the country. the assault is taking place along the front of more than 300 miles. it's a fresh blow to russia's billionaires. president vladimir putin signing off on legal amendments -- to reconfigure the structure of businesses they hold by overseas shares. u.s. treasury secretary janet yellen will participate some sessions. they are backing of any suggestions that they would boycott meetings if russia takes part. she will attend others focused on the economic fallout from russia's invasion of ukraine. china is grappling with a record financial outbreak. 25 million people living in shanghai. the company is currently interviewing banks in march. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries

and that will make a softer landing a very difficult task. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keeneisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. you are watching us or you are watching

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. a most momentous week. tax day is so over. we look to may, and we do it within instabilities and witnessed by the speed of weakness. weakness in the japanese yen. jonathan: it is over, but it still stings for a lot of people, including me. bearish through this year with higher prices as well, and how people cut back on discretionary spending i think is going to be the focus for us all, particularly with netflix after the close. within foreign exchange, the macro story i think is fascinating. you bring up the japanese yen story. we've got this break out in yields in america. breakout in germany. yields higher. japanese bond yields aren't doing anything. so far, the stock observer in foreign-exchange teams to be the u.s. dollar taking all the strength and the japanese yen taking all the weakness. tom: folding into that, maybe less so for service sector america, is the commodity boom we are seeing. simon casey is

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.ing up back 0.2% on the s&p. tom: a bit defensive over the last week. gloom is front and center. for the gloom crew, this is a must watch 30 minut

this is bloomberg surveillance live on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. i'm jonathan ferro. futures up on the s&p, with fact of the park. we can talk about that later. what a move in that. tom: it's an extra neri moment. stay with us for the morning as we give the best coverage we can on this international debacle. i will be linking in matt levine of bloomberg's phenomenal effort on bill hwang with the japanese ministry of finance. wang was and is trying to corner a market. he tried to corner 10 selected stocks and move them up and up in a leveraged way and we talked about this before the show, japan's government is trying to corner the jgb market by eyeing in more paper, keeping control of the yield. what is the difference? jon: the doj probably -- doj probably. the action of the boj is in conflict with the japanese finance ministry. on the same day minister, official from the ministry of finance and japan, is externally concerned on the move and fx. the bank of japan is offering to buy unlimited amount of government bonds at 0.25%. to protect the ceiling

tom keene, have you been able to follow this fat over how a paper route -- this spat over how to pay r russian gas? tom: buried in the depths is a look dark chapter when your eyes glaze over. you have to have a beverage in your hand stop the answer is i was listening to this, it comes down to a foreign-exchange swap which is very complex it is the time and the key thing, is the ruble truly priced at 82? to me that is the singular traumatic question. jonathan: futures up .5%. it is payrolls friday. your estimate is 490,000. two hours away. this is bloomberg. ♪ if you're a small business, there are lots of choices when it comes to your internet and technology needs. but when you choose comcast business internet, you choose the largest, fastest reliable network. you choose advanced security for total peace of mind. and you choose fiber solutions with speeds up to 10 gigs to the most small businesses. that's virtually everywhere we serve. the choice is clear: make your business future ready with the network from the most innovative company. comcast business. powering possibilities™. jonat

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures down 0.8% on the s&p. n in china shaking things up big time. tom: i think china really has a profound impact today, but there's also some real nervousness not t

be later this year, early next year type of phenomenon. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keenean ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. it is a thursday claims in 30 minutes. what we claim is optimism, way too much opti

should ask yourself is where can i find safety in the world. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: a ton of tech earnings coming right up. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures positive by 1.4% on the s&p. after the close, amazon and apple. tom: we have been distracted this morning with a lot of macro babble. chris verrone with weekend -- with weak yen out to 150. i was wrong on facebook. they delivered in spades. i loved what dan ives of wedbush said. they get a pop this morning off the user growth and stability. jonathan: lost almost 50% so far coming into the earnings story, so certainly a pop up of pretty depressed expectations. speaking of growth, mcdonald's just out, sales for the first quarter plus 11.8%. tom: the key now, if you look at paragraph 42, it will mention a little bit of road trip there by mcdonald's, sales and all of that. it comes back down to if they can raise prices. it c

announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. forget may. forget the next one. july 27 matters. that will be the fed meeting. jonathan: on june 15, a 75 basis point move. they think another 75 basis point move and they think that comes up to a 50 point basis move. we know the goal of the federal reserve. get back to neutral and get there quickly. what is important is what you do after that. tom: the timeline here is nonlinear and i am suggesting what really matters happens in three meetings. jonathan: we have already seen the peak of cpi potentially. maybe it is in a month, maybe another month. it is around the first or second quarter. from there, you will get lower inflation. that is what most people anticipate. that is one side of the story. the second part is the more important part. it is how above target inflation will be next year. whether it has a four or a five handle and whether this fed will tolerate that. that is where the division on this fomc

tom keene, lisa abramowicz, tom farrell -- jonathan ferro.is bloomberg. ♪ >> keeping you up-to-date with the news from around the world, i'm ritika gupta. in a bid to restart peace stocks between russia and ukraine, they met with ukrainian negotiators. they talked after evidence of war crimes emerged. the central bank found no clear world turn it is to the major reserve currencies. the bank of russia holds only gold and yuan. that made it possible for international governments to seize half -- jerome powell may reinforce bets that the fed will raise interest rates by half a point next month. the fed's pre-meeting begins at midnight friday. china and its allies have resumed flights. the airline is working to put its entire fleet of boeing 737's back in the air. the cause of the disaster has not yet been determined. powered by more than -- i'm ritika gupta this is bloomberg. ♪ >> it's vital we do not fall >> we do not really know how aggressive this will be, but if the fed delays all that means is that inflation will get more entrenched and the

>> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, tom keene, it is "bloomberg surveillance" but decidedly different today. from washington and the headquarters of the international monetary fund, thrilled to have you with us on radio and television and on a most historic time. jonathan ferro's off today. forget about him. what is so important here is not a crisis or a war but a set of crises i've never seen. the number of them in the three-dimensional space is a certain area. lisa: you frame it perfectly. we are dealing with the pandemic and now war and then we are dealing with inflation and the trick a lot of facts of all of these escalating prices -- crises. how do you grapple with that as a monetary system is turned on its head with unprecedented actions by central banks, unprecedented inflation in many areas of your life. tom: without question, this is the most packed day. we have bank earnings out, we saw wells fargo, should ali bostick -- sonali bostick's work there. and yes we

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. it is technology earnings day, the beginning of the onslaught. a wonderful guest coming up on innovation and the rewarding of technology. microsoft will state. jonathan: we will hear from alphabet, amazon, and apple through the week as well. those names making up 40% of the nasdaq 100. they are big animals and this is a big week for that particular index. it is down hard on the month, down much more so on the year. tom: we will do what we have always done, we just take a bigger, broader picture. patrick armstrong to join us on the bigger view of technology. from where you sit and with your london heritage, how alone is america with big tech? jonathan: i think they speak for themselves. think of the big tech names. that was the story in the last 10 years. that's why there was a u.s. bias when it came to equity exposure, because that's where those names were. this year, that is where the weakness has been, not t

tom keene and lisa abramowicz. we are in washington, d.c. at the international monetary and headquarters on a busy morning. we got citigroup's first quarter earnings, well-received, the shares popping after that. such a moment for us to be at the imf ahead of the ecb press conference, the head of retail sales, as we see this conflict between inflation and [indiscernible] tom: there has never been a year like this. the amount of stories, the cacophony. bank earnings coming up in a moment on citigroup. far more, it is the urgency in the last 48 hours that we see. the russian headline just came out for the bank of russia. lisa: banks may lose half of their capital. also, interesting that vladimir putin saying there is no alternative for russian gas in europe right now. how much will they leverage that when that is really financing some of their war effort? tom: i said to the imf director, strategy, do we know what the russian reserves are? i got the boilerplate answer. let's ask again, do we know what the russian reserves are? lisa: right now w

demand retracts in the economy. >> recession risks are higher. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keeneerro and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning everyone.

tom keene, he will join us in five minutes on the latest piece. one of his more forceful pieces. he does not mince words of the ramifications of any set of 25 or 50 basis point rises. it dovetails nicely with what we heard from governor brainard yesterday. jonathan: they have to get restrictive. given financial conditions, clearly the idea is they have a lot of work to do. lisa: if real rates turn positive, that is a game changer. you were pressing on this. cash becomes more appealing. is that what the fed has to do? do they have to get real rates to zero? they have been indicating that. jonathan: the vix with a little lift. tom: 30 is the pain level. we come back 18, 19, 23. dow futures negative. jonathan: it is that kind of day. [laughter] tom: it is that kind of day. jonathan: people watch this program, they listen to it because we don't do that. they can go somewhere else for that garbage. you know that. lisa: this is going to be fun. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ if you're a small business, there are lots of choices when it comes to your int

announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. ryone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene.

coming. >> we went from exuberance on growth to gloom. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keeneerro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. on radio and television, not your usual friday. a

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance," with tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. o, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene on radio. it is a tuesday of extraordinary inflation, that report in 90 minutes, michael mckee leading the coverage on the agony of a nation with inflation. it permeates every aspect of our economics. lisa:

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance," with tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. m: jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene on radio. it is a tuesday of extraordinary inflation, that report in 90 minutes, michael mckee leading the coverage on the agony of a nation with inflation. it permeates every aspect of our economics. lisa: a complicated issue, because you talk about the pain and it is painful for the individuals but the dynamism of corporate america with bank earnings with j.p. morgan, how much does this dissonance yield something close to a downturn versus a tale of two parts, the haves and have-nots? tom: the have-nots not doing well with the global and american recession. the world trade organization gets out front of imf world bank -- lisa and i will be in washington in a few days -- and the gauging of recession worldwide is a big deal. wto doesn't call for recession but with every bit of work i've ever done, 2.8% global gdp by every measurement i've ever heard models global recession. lisa: you look at how big the downward revision is, 4.1% to 2.8

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz. tom: an interesting day has become a very busy day, an historic day for global wall street. the united states district court, southern district of new york, bill hwang and archegos are back. jonathan: federal authorities said mr. hwang used archegos as an instrument of manipulation and fraud. we have to break down the charges and see how easy or hard they will need to prove. tom: when i look at this and the follow on, one of the parts of the debris is credit suisse today hit a new low under seven swiss franc's per share. still damaged by the scandal. jonathan: and they'll be watching this closely. the epicenter of this, acquired leverage. was that a legal or perfectly legal? that will be a factor in this that i'll be pretty interested in. tom: we are looking at the document right now. everybody will wade through the documents quickly. lisa, your thoughts? lisa: it will be interesting to see what they go after in terms of leverage given the fact that he had 1.5 billion dollars in actual

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. an historic day for "bloomberg surveillance." we have microeconomics, we have amazon and apple this afternoon. all that is going on in europe. we have stock-based compensation at twitter. it grew 60% year-over-year. somehow i think that may end. tom: we got some -- jonathan: we got some earnings. they will not be providing any forward guidance. all previously provided goals and their outlook as well. after the close we will not have an earnings call this morning. yesterday that stock closed at $48, and the offer is $54.20. tom: that goes to the complexities of this public to private transaction. operating margin compared to a plus 5% operating margin, i'm not quite sure what that means. the bottom line here is can we say -- how is mr. musk going to look at this? jonathan: i could not care less about this earnings report this money. we just had german cpi come in at 7.8%. the world has got bigger problems than this earnings report. tom: i have been screaming

>> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. morning. mr. ferro on sabbatical but kailey leinz joins us. sweden and finland make history talking about joining the eu and nato. is a huge deal with finland. we have weak yen. the dollar is in a churn off the inflat

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. it is a thursday claims in 30 minutes. what we claim is optimism, way too much optimism this morning away from the really difficult news in europe. we will get to it in a moment. people pushing against the gloom. jonathan: dan ives at wedbush saying now is the time to buy big tech. at the moment in the market, we are getting a bit more defensive. we have talked about that throughout the whole morning. the weakness is where the story is. not picking up on the banks, the financials, even with the move we have seen in rates. tom: and the confidence there that is really being tested, looking at what is out there right now, everybody into cash. the gloom plays off the central bank mystery of this april. jonathan: it is no mystery for a lot of people. bank of america calling 50, then another one, then another one. tom: let's compare that to citigroup, which is going 50, 50, 50, and then they keep going, right? jonathan: they believe that the end rate is going to

>> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. mr. ferro on sabbatical but kailey leinz joins us. sweden and finland make history talking about joining the eu and nato. is a huge deal with finland. we have weak yen. the dollar is in a churn off the inflation report. new york city, no one cares. lisa: a lot of people are trying to understand how big of a threat there was from yesterday. you saw that shooting in the subway station. i will say many new yorkers i know are saying things happen. don't let the terror win. nobody died, we are dealing with it and they are working to apprehend the individual. front and center is earnings. we get jp morgan earnings and delta earnings. a tale of two different economic stories. tom: both show the resiliency of jp morgan through the panic and all is well. delta airlines. this goes back to a conversation i had with mr. bastion two years ago. he said domestic comes back and international will take some time. my tone is take some time is now. lisa: that is the message from delta'

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning everyone. kailey leinz information abramowitz -- kailey leinz in for miss abramowitz. do we have the courage this morning to look at the images on the cover of the newspaper? jonathan: haunting was the word used by the european council president. deeply concerning, distressing. how does europe respond to it? will they fall short? most people conclude they will. tom: this is not a war from other centuries or even world war ii or vietnam. there is an immediacy here that not only affects the war outcome but affects the policy around it. jonathan: a moral question has dominant of the conversation for weeks. how do they back away from energy? they can talk about reducing dependency this has become much more urgent. this electorate wants to see them do something immediately and you can see the pressure building right now. if they do that, you know what the price will be, almost a guaranteed recession. tom: i want to get to kaylee and the washington response let's go to that

aftershock. >> the trend in inflation is going to peak soon. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keeneerro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: live from new york city, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance. i'm jonathan ferro. tom:

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz back in the house, and tom keene. the analysis back to thursday of is this nato, is this russia, or is it just a redux of chechnya is front and center. jonathan: but can the europeans agree on? is it energy? the proposal we have seen that we are reporting on is a baby step towards doing something on coal, coal imports. with that be enough to retake -- to retain any credibility as russia ramp things up? tom: all of it leading to reduced growth, and certainly the most controversial pleat of the investment morning and economic morning is blanchflower really pushing against the certitude of ecb and indirectly said raising rates a lot. jonathan: jamie dimon and jp morgan yesterday, "pity the fed." his words, not mine. let's take the essence of the spirit of that statement. this federal reserve is in such a tricky position going into the back half of this year, and to repeat what damian sassower set on this program 10 minutes ago,

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. m: good morning everyone. mr. ferro on well-deserved sabbatical. kailey leinz doing double duty this morning. thank you for joining us this morning, on radio and tv. with the news flow, the inflation report tomorrow come our trip to washington scheduled for thursday. you know what? the markets matter, and they are moving. lisa: and it is not just. the imf on. thursday we also have the -- not just the imf on thursday. we also have the ecb meeting. we see the 10 year yield in the united states reaching the highest levels since the heart of the pandemic. but it is also german yields, the highest since 2015. just to put into perspective how significant this move is, at one point we were talking about negative yields in germany on the 10 year early in march, and now talking about almost 0.8%. tom: i'm not going to sit on a data check right now. we will do that in a bit. but the 10 year yield is front and center this morning. wow, have we come to a smaller negative statistic. lisa: is this b

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. we welcome all of you to markets on the move. yes, it is about a follow on from what we saw friday afternoon. dow down 900 points are you china front and center in the story. but jon, corporations continue to move forward with transactions and combinations. mr. musk front and center this morning. jonathan: the offer from elon musk is $54.20. twitter trading pretty close to it as all reports suggest could, i emphasize could, have a deal as soon as today. tom: in all the reporting over the weekend, the single sentence, i'm going to give bloomberg credit for this, morgan stanley steps in in some way to assist here. there is a difference between mr. musk alone and mr. musk wall street. jonathan: and it is not just morgan stanley. it was mufg, bank of america, barclays, a whole range of banks backing up elon musk's offer. that is clearly what changed things for this board, taking that offer seriously. at the time it came out, the jokes about whether this was ser

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. on radio, on television, it is jobs day. the usual great guests will join us. jeff rosenberg, the former governor of the fed, and we have 5, 6, 7% inflation. jonathan: in europe and in the united states. the range is super wired from zero all the way to 700k. the number drops in 30 minutes. tom: can we say that this job today can adapt or just fed policy? jonathan: i'm not there. jonathan:for the 50 basis point move in early may this needs to tell the fed not to rather than tell them they should. 50 basis points, the whole of wall street is behind that view. tom: i say, lisa, that the political backdrop of this jobs report is seen in a gallon of gas, but now percolating into all of the inflation of america. it is a different labor economy. lisa: the conversation is about the hot labor market, the good news that we are hearing out of the economic data. and then the sentiment of consumers is low and lower because of gas prices and inflation. how do you respon

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: live from new york city, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance. i'm jonathan ferro. tom: what i'm looking at today is a set of inflation statistics that say inflation is here. how about gold. we just had a new high on corn. there's all these indicators of prices up. jonathan: the conversation on wall street is moving. maybe the mechanical peak is. ultimately this story will persist through the year hit. they think that's going to start hitting growth and earnings as well. tom: to me the thing in the economic notes that there is this game wrapped into the fed parlor game of what is the timing of a presumed the client in inflation. i guess we have evidence that's presumed. jonathan: we can play the fed parlor game. banks aren't rallying on that story. they aren't rallying on that whatsoever. the numbers at b of a this morning, it's a miss on investment banking revenue. look at the performance of stock in the premarket. that's a stock that's been hammered over the last mo

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. ing everyone. mr. ferro on well-deserved sabbatical. kailey leinz doing double duty this morning. thank you for joining us this morning, on radio and tv. with the news flow, the inflation report tomorrow come our trip to washington scheduled for thursday. you know

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz. resting day has become a very busy day,

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. you are watching us or you are watching netflix, down this morning. right now, a little bit of a bounce. we are going to retest that crater at -28%. jonathan: we were down 22% after last quarter's earnings, and here we are again. this time, a letter to investors saying this growth company is going ex-growth. tom: tim nolan from macquarie, never had a buy on it. i love what dan ives said, it will be about the haves and have-nots this earnings season. traditional media will be there and i will look at mourner discovery, their work on billions of dollars. help me with this energy, with the fed, the real yield actually what positive. lisa: they should welcome this. we have been in an abnormally suppressed environment, but how much higher does it have to go in order to be restrictive? as we are hearing increasingly, they are looking for some kind of restrictive policy. if they don't get that in place, what happens to inflation, given that expectations over the longer-term

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom:

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. d morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz back in the house,

announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. on radio and television, it is uneventful wednesday. it is a rapid pace wednesday. the tone, the second derivative, the calculus from the lady from westland. they continue to move this morning. jonathan: the line from governor brainard, we need to reduce the balance sheet at a rapid pace. chairman powell said the same thing. that is exactly what a few of us will do. we will look for the fed minutes. tom: we talked to bill dudley about what is the difference between the vulgar inflation and the brainard inflation and to me it is the intertwined nature of all of this with the pandemic, with the huge fiscal stimulus and i will suggest a massive mystery between bill dudley and david blanchflower is one debate. jonathan: we are moving quicker, much quicker. balance sheet reductions will happen faster because rate hikes have not happened soon enough. the hikes started in 2015. the reduction started two years later. it was not years between. it was a couple of mon

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: a most eventful friday, getting set for may. six days until that fed meeting. jonathan: looking forward to it. we all expect a 50 basis point move from the federal reserve and then maybe another 50? what happens after summer, what happens when we get to what they think is neutral? tom: i didn't get to it with one of our guests this morning, but we will do it now. how hard do we focus on july 27, september 21, november 2? by november 2, sterling will be at parity. jonathan: i have no idea where it will be by the end of the year. when the numbers come out from apple, amazon, the numbers look decent from apple. then make it this fluffy guidance about what will happen in q3. not great. tom: lisa, help us out. the fluffy guide is the mystery of china. lisa: it is broad-based and significant in terms of worry. when you talk about looking out into the future, there were 200 missions of recessions so far in earnings calls. even though we were talking about sustained momentum right now in

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. live from europe city, good morning, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance. futures just about positive on the s&p, setting you up going into the weekend, with cpi and earnings in america. tom: it will be interesting to see earnings. ecb just as important. the market speaks volumes. i am looking

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz i am jonathan ferro. what a move in this bond market. tom: a huge move and you can look at a short term. did you know that it is rapid pace wednesday? i think this is where we are after we heard from the presumptive vice-chairman and the bond market is moving away from what we remember. a two year yield particularly, valentine's day before the pandemic 1.43% and look at where we are today. jonathon: i love that you base anything off of valentine's day on every given year. are you reading the fed minutes later this afternoon? tom: i am not, vice-chairman presumptive brainerd will read them for me. lisa: honestly, we had this feeling that we would get some kind of bombshell about how quickly they will wind down the balance sheet and the many -- in the meeting minutes. we knew that they were interested in -- interested in moving quickly and brainerd said that we would move quickly and everyone freaks out so you start to wonder how people will respond to the actuality of words that we have been expecting for a couple weeks now? jonathon: i re

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. thrilled you are with us this morning. what a conversation we had with claudia sahm, firing up twitter. we will continue that conversation in moments with optimism on getting through this crisis. we are buffeted by a cacophony of crises. jonathan: let's start with the drumbeat of the central bank speakers a little bit later. the drumbeat continues into that panel between chairman powell and president lagarde a little bit later. we know what the federal reserve is about to do in may, a 50 basis point move. we know the committee is back on board with getting back to neutral, something north of 2% on fed funds. the question is how much further will they go from there. we know what bullard would like, 3.5% by year end. can he get others on board through the next few meetings? tom: the vix under 20. futures up 41. the sense here is the optimists or the calm down crew are having their moment given the gloom that we see in so many blogs and research notes. jonatha

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. lisa: good morning. a pivotal week starts with a yield spike. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. jon ferro, tom would say, is on sabbatical. i will say it is vacation. kailey leinz is with us this morning. we've got the q1 earnings kicking off, the ecb meeting on thursday. how much is the scenes that are really 10-year gilts rising to the highest going back to 2019? tom: all we have done is set the table this morning. one is that in flirt -- is that important inflation report tomorrow. there is some data. all you have to do is look at the headline data, 8.4%. i guess that is a boom nominal gdp for a while, but then what? lisa: is it headed upward? how much upward? or is this the plateau, the peak? wednesday's earnings kickoff may be more important to markets given the forward look then even the cpi report. tom: there is a great division here. there's people looking at an average 5% earnings growth, people who underplayed it. mike wilson's they