we were recovering, tom keene still recovering.will be back tomorrow ahead of a federal reserve decision after payrolls on friday. 44, crude down about 3%. the germans making some noise this morning saying they are open to a possible crude embargo. and they are open to it. >> they have already cut back their oil imports quite significantly from russia. really the main story with oil is what's going on in china and the shutdowns and how much that will affect the global demand supply picture when they could have a negative print. jonathan: joining to discuss. annmarie hordern. keeping my voice. let's start with you. maria, the germans open to doing something on crude how quickly can they do it? >> i think they want to do it quickly. if it was up to them they would agree to it this week. i would note the details, it doesn't mean the implementation will happen immediately but the germans say they would drop the veto if they get a transition phase for this so the german industry is able to adjust in a phaseout that's gradual from now ti

lisa abramowicz and tom keene. john -- jon ferro is off this week. in, which is difficult because every photo on the marriott website is of clear, sunny skies. lisa: it's true. tom: there chief executive officer. how many hotels is it? anthony: a little over 8000. tom: tony capuano with us this morning. the wage war. eight dollars an hour, $10 an hour, $22 an hour. we will speak to brian moynihan, a couple of hours out. what are you and your franchise is doing about the wage war? anthony: our total vacant positions of about 8000 is almost exactly what our steady run rate was re-pandemic. the difference is pre-pandemic, they were relatively evenly distributed. now they are concentrated in the markets that have recovered most quickly. obviously we need to be competitive on wage. we've got to identify folks that want hospitality as a career. one in five jobs that were lost came out of travel and tourism. lisa: do you get the sense that there is a bigger pool of applicants for each job? that the labor market is starting to get a little easier? anthony: i

markets. >> it's very hard to say inflation will just proceed. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keenethan ferro, and we. tom: good morning, everyone. jobs day in america n

, this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. i am jonathan ferro. futures are down .2%. we have to start with the carnage of the last 24 hours. tom: this is an incredibly important report. mike mckee will join us in the early california morning. it is extraordinary. i'm going to say this is clear as i can. the difference is a previous pandemic correction that was had, they were short and sharp. it has taken a long time for the peaks to get to a 10% correction, a drought down -- a drawdown. it is lengthen and prolonged. jonathan: we have to pick over the destruction. 49% of the nasdaq, and 52 week highs. the index is already in a bear market. tom: this is the case. a distribution that you see among any given index. i take your point here. the 500 is more ticket if -- indicative than the dow jones. what happened yesterday? was it governor bailey or something else? to me, it was the x access of inflation guest forward. it shifted, and equities took it on the chain. jonathan: what happened on wednesday? let's talk about that. lisa:

lisa: tom keene cares about bond options. tom: i do. . lisa: that's my biggest take away. tom: our schedule to be in london today, monday is memorial day and a fractured united states of america. we will be in transit and jon ferro is scheduled to be with us tuesday as well and we will begin an eventful week looking at the american labor economy and onto a critically important ecb meeting. maybe the one look forward to the most with christine lagarde. will you give us a brief are the hour? lisa: sure. tom: are you going to dash the ethro? lisa: we will be looking a personal conception, personal spending, and personal income at 8:30. at 10:00 a.m., we get university of michigan the sentiment which will probably come in around the same level as it was before, the weakest level since 2011 and we have a slew of incredible guests. christian may like coming up with jp morgan as we try to discern the dynamics of an oil market, a crude market in oil. tom: i told mohamed el-erian this may be a more important interview then the doctor and hang up the phone -- hung up the phone. she

for our audience worldwide, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures up .8%. there is a bounce. will it stick? tom: with a little bit of hope and prayers. maybe it is a shift on the fed guessing game, but as lisa mentioned, earnings are better than good and strategists readjust. jonathan: we look forward to cpi tomorrow. that is the major one for this market. tom: i agree. it is going to be interesting to see. i know you already know the numbers. i'm still not used to an eight-figure. jonathan: we are looking for another one tomorrow. wall street will look for one thing, and the newspapers will go with something else. lisa, the front pages -- and i would argue this administration too -- will look for deceleration. wall street will be looking month on month. tom: they -- lisa: they are also going to be looking at the components. what is driving ongoing inflation? i'm wondering how much of the new search is due to supply chain disruptions. whether that changes the story for a federal reserve which is trying to fight demand-side inflation. cannot d

down. >> it is clear that things are way out of control. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keeneferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: a fed day on radio and television.

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro come in lisa abramowicz. tom: jon ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene from davos. jon is on assignment, lisa and i are here in a changed davos. the shock of may instead of january and other ideas. you know how there is a token driver. i am the token rest are. i went to bed. you are up partying all night. lisa: the davos mood is a lot more quiet sent. this is my first year here. everyone talks about the weather being former and fewer people are here. there is also a more serious tone. not only with the backdrop of ukraine, but also markets. yesterday we saw a pop. today we are giving it up. people are concerned what they're not seeing around corners with the china slow down. tom: the way we are in this bear market -- jamie dimon salvaged the market yesterday. i think that is true. we need somebody else to come out and get growthy on us. lisa: the fact that one company or one co can move the market so much -- today people will blame snap -- they came out with a letter saying the backdrop is deteriorating faste

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio. i am jonathan ferro. futures down more than .1% on the s&p. it is all about the squeeze on this consumer. kailey: the squeeze on consumer. 9% in the united kingdom. it is a squeeze across all. you cannot parse out energy. it is about core cpi and let's call it a double of what we have seen pre-covid. jonathan: one of the most important notes on wall street came from j.p. morgan. cruel summer: white u.s. gasoline prices could break above six dollars later this year. that is a bit -- that is a big deal. kailey: just got invited to the morgan call in london on oil. they walk through the why we are going to $150 a barrel. the answer is jp morgan and others see oil prices higher because of conventional analysis. jonathan: how much does this fed need to squeeze? lisa: and how much they willing to? jay powell said fight for for credibility. he came out saying we will not take a nuanced view of inflation. that is the bedr

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. on radio, on television, even full-day before and inflation report. the president will report in the 11:00 hour this morning. jonathan: 11:30 eastern time, trying to push back fears about inflation and ultimately push forward their idea they can do some thing about it. for this market, nothing else matters. cpi tomorrow. tom: what is important is the new pervasive view after talking with javier bloss about how it is spreading -- javier blas about how it is spreading throughout the system. jonathan: that is what is interesting about what we saw yesterday. treasuries advanced, yields dropped. we talked about upside risk to inflation. yesterday much more about downside risk to growth because of what has been developing this inflation. that is a new development for this market, with energy equities struggling instead of rallying. yield moving lower instead of climbing. tom: underscored by john williams in comments moments ago, john williams, president of the ne

we have a windstorm from tom keene. lisa abramowicz. jonathan ferro on assignment. this fog really sets the moment for the mom -- early sets the mood for the moment we are in. tom: it really works this year. there's a some furnace. i will -- there's a somberness. charles schwab wrote a note this year that i have never seen in 51 years. there was a somber tone of this war in ukraine. lisa: not only that, but the supply-chain disruptions and how you re-create the spirit of globalization that is being rejected by so many different populations. i've got to say, the backdrop of markets yesterday, quiescent. but today a little less so. there's another downward tilt, and it comes after snap, and i know you wonder what kind of company it is, a lot of people call it social media, but abercrombie and fitch also coming out with some potentially negative headwinds, basically talking about some of the supply chain disruptions that have been greater than expected. tom: i had a conversation yesterday, and i don't think it has been played enough here. if china opens and shanghai unl

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: it is not getting better. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures down 0.4% on the s&p. on the nasdaq we are down 0.75%. lisa: so why is nobody buying the step? we heard that -- this dip? we heard that people were coming in. it feels like people are waiting for another shoe to drop. what is going to give them conviction one way or another? jonathan: psychology has shifted in a massive way. the buy the dip mentality has been retired alongside the fed put. equities were up off the back of the inflation report. it lasted about five minutes. i think that is representative of so many people. we're looking at the moves, we see the nasdaq down 27%. we have seen these big tech stocks down by monster amounts and they are still nervous. that is when the psychology starts to shift another way and we are really gripped by what is happening in the bond market. lisa: we have seen a bubble b

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance," with tom keene, and lisa abramowicz.onathan: live from new york city, good morning. this is "berg surveillance." alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, on the nasdaq we are down 1%. we are off session lows. tom: it continues on air and it is a massive recalibration across what we do economics, finance, and investment. the chitchat as we had with claudia sahm will start with economics. what does any central bank do given the cards dealt? jonathan: chairman powell says keep on hiking and i imagine there's a relationship with the market. which a bank is saying we are at the recession crossroads for this -- deutsche bank is saying we are at the recession crossroads for this economy. tom: i sound like a broken record, if that is the thing that spins around and you put a needle on it. the bond market is leaning away, real carnage, and i'm sorry, the central banks in some way face -- save -- face-saving form. what is important here as they are going to adjust and adapt. jonathan: that's what you think but in this market they

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene on a friday, an exhausting week setting up for weekend reading and we will the in dallos, switzerland week. jon ferro, a better jonathan: jonathan: take this morning. jonathan:jonathan: this morning but not on the wii, seven weeks of losses. on the session up by about 1% and the question i keep hearing us repeatedly, have we seen the capitulation? tom: no. jonathan: we'll capitulation is fed capitulation. it is a systemic event, unappointed rising. that is what is required first. tom: an important reading for the weekend, what is so important is that is linking in the economics for the market performance but even looking at the market, we cannot talk about capitulation with the vix at 28.62, we are miles away. jonathan: people are waiting for something north of 30 approaching 40. this week, people were spooked about the target numbers. because it was surprising but because the market was so surprised by them. t

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. on television, on radio, a monday to a very busy week. retail sales tomorrow, but mostly it is a recalibration in equities, a recalibration in bonds. jonathan: leading that effort is david costa nickel men sex. he goes to fort -- david kostin at goldman sachs. he goes to 4300. i keep going back to this point because it is so important. the fed is telling you they want tighter financial conditions. the fed is telling you that they do not want higher equity prices and tighter spreads. they do not want a weaker dollar. they want a further tightening of financial conditions. that is essentially what mary daly of the san francisco fed said last week. i think that is so important going through this summer. tom: we are going to address that in a moment. in the last hour, it was clear there is a bond bear market. jonathan: there is, and in the treasury market specifically, have we seen the highs? 3.20% on the 10 year, was that high for this cycle? 2.58 percent righ

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: britain's april. -- good riddance, april. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. futures rolling over here, now down 0.3% on the s&p. lisa: after a really brutal month, saying goodbye to april. the first part of the year was dominated by peak hawkish in us, peak rate hike concerns, now moving into a new area where people are worried about something more pernicious perhaps. jonathan: it is funny when you talk about that relative to payrolls friday. here are the estimates from bank of america. assim 59, payrolls on friday, unemployment friday, 3.5 percent, and a federal reserve that is going to go 50 basis points and implement qt. does that sound like a bearish growth story at the moment? the data points coming in that they are looking for, pretty decent. lisa: there are no signs that the consumer is slowing down. you can try to look for bearishness across the board when it comes to how much people are spending. however, the projections from apple, from amazo

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: it is cpi wednesday. this is bloomberg surveillance. i am jonathan ferro. equity futures up 1%. the big one at 8:30. tom: the last time we were at this inflation level olivia newton john and "let's get physical, physical." we will find if we actually get physical on lower inflation. jonathan: if only you could see bramo's face right now. what are we hoping for? hopefully peak inflation is behind us. core hopefully coming in, that is not the expectation. tom: we are down to the micro rollover of inflation. looking month over month. must watch, must listen for global wall street, culminated by william dudley later in the show. jonathan: bill dudley coming up. his view on how high do rates need to go on the federal reserve, probably higher. lisa: if that is the view how do we explain the rally we are seeing in treasuries, in equities? there are number of different expectations inflation will not come in as hot and i do not know if i buy that. i do not know if this is any sort of

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz stared tom: good morning, everyone. bloomberg radio, bloomberg television worldwide. perfect weather here on our final day at these meetings at the world economic forum. lisa: it is very much the nature of conversation, talking about the war in ukraine. serious reports from companies that have projected down where their sales, whether video, exporting goods, all these different companies. tom: the next two days from switzerland, we will be in london tomorrow with a market centric analysis. what we are doing is looking at the calendar. do we have a holiday on monday? lisa: we do have a holiday. tom: mi off? lisa: most people in europe are off. possibly that is why markets are so calm today. it is a noticeable shift. tom: what is so important is we are so upside down, we do not realize it is the end of may, we are one month away from midyear, we have the jobs report coming up next week. we will get a look at the pmi numbers that jon ferro thinks are so important and we will get a first assessment.

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with john keenan, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: we are all moving forward to the presumable economic shutdown. jonathan: what are the odds to that question? tom: what i am looking at is the data. front and center for me today is diesel. from the last meeting to this meeting is surging. that number was just published moments ago. diesel is 16% of america's energy consumption. it matters. jonathan: a lot has changed in the price of fuel, a lot has changed in this market. the s&p and the nasdaq, for that matters well. lisa: there has been a lot of adjustments ahead of this fed reason -- this fed meeting was raise a lot of questions for me. for june, are they going to raise rates 570 percent there? why don't they do something bold in this meeting? are they going to signal something in the balance sheets sooner than june? everybody is talking about dependency. john, you have pointed out again and again what data are they looking at because it is coming in hot. jonat

tom keene, this time the euro is weaker as they are unwinding qe, not building it out. s why the relationship between yields and the euro in europe it's more interesting. tom: have we seen any research that cuts below parity? jonathan: i have not seen at the same way we did 5, 7 years ago. 1.03 was the low. we've had a look at 1.04, but back then, weaker euro was an objective. now yields are breaking out, but the euro is not coming along for the ride. we've got to be very focused on what is happened there. lisa: how much can the fed get ahead of what is happened with the euro? how much do they respond to it if they tighten? what does that actually due to a euro responding most of all to growth? jonathan: that is the cross asset price action. let's catch up just morning with kailey leinz. kailey: a lot of earnings are still rolling out this morning, including from pfizer. the outlook on revenue overall coming in a little light. paxlovid in a trial announced they did not prove effective at preventing covid-19. that stock is down about 0.7%. biogen moving lower more than 1%

jonathan: this is bloomberg surveillance live on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa bremen edge -- lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. on course for a sixth straight week of losses. tom: there is a bid but i'm going to call it fragile. i focus on the vicks, still above 30, 30.66, a bounce. jonathan: have we see the worst and the capitulation? we have heard so many people trying to answer that. tom: they got me going yesterday coming back from tottenham arsenal. i can't said enough, you can measure catharsis, we are nowhere near there. i measure it above 35 on vicks into the 41-40 two level, we are miles away. jonathan: you are desperate to get that match review. tom: completely inappropriate. the musk and twitter news has pushed tottenham arsenal beside. i don't want to get into it now, but i think to see it was to believe it. jonathan: i'm happy we are on the same page, totally inappropriate. 15 or 16% in early trading. lisa: basically elon musk with one tweet wiping off billions of market value for this company that ended the day yesterday at 35, $6 billion in value. how much

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: live from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on tv and radio. he's back, tk, alongside lisa abramowicz. i'm jonathan ferro. the fed's today meeting begin. tom:tom: huge close yesterday. what a moonshot up. i don't know if it sets us up for tomorrow, but i guess preordained to a half a point rate increase, which in itself is history making, and the markets adapt and adjust. where will be friday? where will we be in the jobs report coming up? jonathan: let's look at the battle on the sale side between jp morgan and morgan stanley. they want, get clear this bear market is far from complete. jp morgan and the team saying we continue to find too much negativity in equity and credit markets. tom: it is a battle. i don't have a strong opinion either way. i'm looking at the correlations of the market. it is great that can rogoff will be with us today with -- that can rogoff -- that ken rogoff will be with us today. jonathan: bef

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and tom keene. from the world economic forum in davos, a very different davos this year in may, not in january. i have been stunned at the changes. i did not expect the difference in energy, the ballet of beautiful may morning. lisa: it's very different from tripping over the ice and dealing with snow and freezing. it's a very different moment in wall street. on the heels of the pandemic, a quieter davos one that is also more serious and focused. tom: you brought it up earlier. it's not a davos of catharsis out there or emotion. it's the slog in interest rates and the worries about recession. lisa: and a changed geopolitical landscape to highlight the fact that russia is not here and all that entails. what does it mean to be globalized in a world where people are trying to find how to get things quickly and reliably despite some of the disruptions? tom: -- was walking by the and he was deglobalized. we will take a quick look a

jonathan: i only know one happy man, it is tom keene. that seems to be the only place to hide. when we talked about people building up cash position, why would you want cash when you have inflation north of 8%? a lot of market participants, this is why. lisa: especially if that is in dollars. if you are earning in euros and putting it in euros and then going to the u.s., not so much. this is the real trade that has emerged as the only haven when there is so much other volatility. how much is that disruptive in its own right given to what that does outside the u.s.? jonathan: your equity market looks something like this on the s&p and nasdaq. we are down 1% on the s&p 500. on the nasdaq 100, down 1.6%. futures negative, the opening bell about one hour and 27 minutes away. yields are lower nine or 10 basis points. we keep going back to this three-step process people think we are in. they think we are in step three. from inflation fear to rate response to growth scare. are we in step three firmly given the price action in bonds? lisa: i am glad you asked that. the intraday volatil

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. thrilled you are with us from the world a comic forum meetings -- the world economic forum meetings in a very different davos, switzerland. a great set of guests coming up. we will tell you about that. but we need to set the stage in may of what always occurs in january. i'm stunned how jarring it is. i did not expect it to be so odd this year. lisa: not only is it not snowing at it is not freezing, but definitely the meetings. tom: somber. lisa: and i think that is appropriate. we are coming off the worst rout , the longest stretch of declines on the nasdaq and the s&p going back to 2001, and the dow going back to 1973, although no one looks at it, if jon were here. tom: jonathan on assignment, capri, where there's no wind. we're going to put up with the wind and also look at the winds of change in this economy. the front page of the world a comic forum, by far the most serious, somewhere i have ever seen. li

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. jobs day tomorrow, the fed day yesterday. this morning, history at the bank of england, and that wraps into all of global wall street. you have lived it. governor bailey in a very small chair speaking to the british people. jonathan: and looking to engineer a soft landing on a very small landing strip as well. that is a tough task for this governor right now. forecasting at the bank of england double-digit inflation by year-end and potentially a contraction in the economy next year, and a bank of england rate setting committee that just does not know what to do this year. tom: within that is the dissent. governor bailey does not agree with the calls for a far bigger move. fine. is that is sent normal -- that dissent normal? jonathan: policy movers essentially saying they want to be done for the next couple of meetings. three wanted a bigger move today. what is in clear to me is how much distance there is between the three that wanted a 50 basis point rate h

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures of the .8% after the pain of yesterday. tom: the pain of yesterday and 2022, as we mentioned, jon, you are looking for the hope and prayer of bloom to script bloom destruction. jonathan: hsbc not buying it. they are firmly risk-off. they think it is coming in the next three to six months. tom: i get a bunch of notes yesterday tearing the strategists apart. when the facts change, i change. that is what is going on right now. people are readjusting. i would suggest the first step is to wait for the catharsis, and a lot of people saying we really have not seen the agony yet. jonathan: i have been surprised by how few on the south side have adjusted. lisa abramowicz putting out the note, we stay pro-risk and underweight in bonds and cash. have been wrong over the last 12 months. lisa: can you be surprised? he is sort of a separate category of wall street will end going to come out and reaffirm what angle you are going to take? the story is becoming nuanced, and i think goldman sach

that is one tom keene. what was the biggest take away from the panels you did? gent sign off on that? my number one take away, lisa drives me nuts, we could be talking liverpool, and she says why aren't we talking about china? guess what, we are talking about china. when the lockdown ends, what? lisa: the lack of visibility into that, especially because the china delegation is not here because of zero covid. they are not here to give some sort of intel into what is going on. how you position going forward when that could be the potential swing option in terms of the economy. tom: a wonderful conversation with brian moynihan. he was like banker nerd, wasn't he? lisa: you walk him into that. you do not care about fed speak, do you? i guess not. tom: to take brian moynihan at bank of america, very visible, and jamie dimon in his 44 page note where they are talking about hard work, and the other thing i think is underestimated is every single company is going to adjust and adapt to the data michael feroli -- i am just not as negative as others because they will adapt

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning everyone. on radio, on television, we welcome all of you back to our studios in new york. the singular story this morning is oil. american oil, $119 a barrel. we saw a $122 print on brent. jonathan: the driving season begins with gas prices approaching five dollars on average across this country. some places higher, some please lower, but the direction is pretty clear. we mentioned some of the research from jp morgan it could hit six dollars later this year. there's a problem the economy for a lot of the people experiencing that in a bigger way and a problem at the white house on how to address it. tom: the economic data gets us to the midyear outlook. you wonder what the midyear outlook is for the president of the united states as he sits down with a secretary of treasury and the chairman of the federal reserve. jonathan: and approaching a midyear outlook for the federal reserve as well. president bostic tina fey pause maybe later this summer. this afternoon was gove

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: equities rallying hard this morning. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures up 1.8% on the s&p. retail sales just around the corner. tom: i look at s&p 500, and off that low, under 4000 on spx, we are nowhere near the midpoint. that is how depressed we have been. but we are working our way back, and you really wonder within a bear market, and of bear market, whichever it will be, is there something in the wind about china and the end of a lockdown? jonathan: looking ahead to the data as well stateside. we know how the consumer feels, dreadful. sentiment a decade low. what are they doing? we are going to find out at about 8:30 eastern. tom: retails will be a huge deal. it is not only the control group where they take out the variables that the pros do not look at, but i love that we have they nicole sy before we get to the econom

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning everyone. on radio and evolution -- and television, from the world economic forum in davos, switzerland, they've announced january meetings in the dead of winter. we will see it in seven months. lisa: despite all the people to cry and they will be slipping on the ice, that seems perhaps to be a better time. it is an eventful moment. we have a slew of corporate news amid this executive gathering as people meet with policymakers. it really paints a bifurcated picture for the u.s. economy and frankly, for the world tom: macy's doing -- for the world. tom: macy's doing really well. a lot of pros saying you can't guess a recession. lisa: frankly come of the data is not supporting it. perhaps a little bit more pessimistic when it comes to europe and other regions, but still we are seeing people spending, and that is what we saw was macy's. i think this is a really big deal. they came out and boosted their expectation for the year. and why? basically people are charging thin

>> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. we stagger to friday, may be into the month of june. listen to the people on the show opener, although them, even gabriel santos at j.p. morgan, doom and gloom. jonathan: we still have two weeks of may. it has gotten that bad. equities right now about 45% on the s&p 500. fed coming to the rescue. we have heard from so many fed speakers, going back to the words of daly, i would like to see continued tightening. this is a feature, that is the goal. tom: we will talk to a stabbing market expert in a moment, but the major shift this week is nobody is talking about getting inflation back to 2%, it is somewhere up there and there is a mystery to the glide path of the successful fed. jonathan: it is not where it peaks, it is where it will stabilize and how much work the fed will have to do after that. august will be important. we have talked about that a lot. that is when the fed gets to reassess. they have several prints in their back pocket. how much further beyond neutra

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. lisa: important conversations at a highly uncertain time. from the world a comic forum in davos, switzerland, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance, " live on radio, on television. we are here debating some of the top issues of the moment amid a pallor of incredible sadness, both with respect to what is going on in ukraine, and then in america with the shooting in a school that was one of the deadliest in american history. tom: we need to frame the bloomberg reporting now because these are fast-moving stories. the somber nest across america is equaled by what i think has been underreported. there is severe fighting in what i am going to call far and southeastern ukraine. it is beneath the headlines in america, but there is some real tension into crane right now. -- in ukraine right now. lisa: there's been a constant drumbeat of terror and incredible sadness to the new slope. how much that is affecting the conversation here is tremendous. people are

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: what a week, good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance" on tv and radio alongside with tom keene and lisa abramowicz. futures posited by 1%. tom: a bear market and by the measurements and the draw down, we will get it up in a moment. you look at the events yesterday and into the weekend and it is just about reaffirming where are we and where are the central banks. a great lineup to give us perspective into the weekend. jonathan: we are on course for a six straight week of losses. a lot of notes on the south side asking one big question, have we seen capitulation? tom: i was watching the game and i think tottenham did well against arsenal and i missed a lot of the movement yesterday, but the fact is a bid today, but what is the confidence in the bid? i would suggest the changes is that the havens have clicked in a little bit. jonathan: we are super excited for the match review. we will stick to the markets right now. this market heading south. big move, one whisker within

lisa abramowicz and tom keene, and back to you. guy: an umbrella definitely require. hope they packed those bloomberg umbrellas, because it sounds like they're going to be needed. as mr. moran handset, snow is definitely quieter than rain. let's talk about what he said on the consumer. it was my real take away from that conversation. it is a take away i've heard from bank ceo after bank ceo that have traveled to davos. the consumer is in great shape, and that is going to make the fed's job difficult. alix: they said nothing is going to slow the consumer right now. and saying that actually deposits are up. maybe people have not spent all of that stem -- stimmy money. is it just a shift really from the pandemic winners who have reopening trade, in essence? guy: it's interesting to see the slowdown and services, but it comes down to what we have been talking about the last few days. it started with walmart, it went into target. i think you are seeing it in snap as well. the topline is ok. i keep reiterating that. that speaks to the solid consumer. the consumer is spendin

i really want to see tom keene's wikipedia searches in the break. tom: if i call olivia newton john, that might have some sway. jonathan: futures are up. inflation data and america. -- aiden america -- in america. >> price. that is unlikely to be enough to keep the fed from raising rates. the u.s. has approved an emergency spending a bill for ukraine. it pays for new weapons and provides economic and humanitarian assistance is larger. the bill heads over to the senate where approval is likely next week. likely the first black woman on the federal board of governance. 51-50 vote for her. etc. rating a push beyond cigarettes. the company agreed to buy smokeless tobacco in a transaction that represented almost 40%. philip morris generated -- the japanese forecasting a lower profit outlook, citing an unprecedented rising cost. it is offsetting the benefits of a depreciating yen. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> some but ther

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. >> live fromy new york city. this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio. kailey leinz alongside lisa abramowicz, futures up about a third of 1%. it is all about the fed this week. lisa: do they go 50 basis points. do they signal a forward look.

live on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures down another 1.9%. tom: what we can say across three hours over the preshow preparation and starting surveillance this morning, it is a situation that deteriorates. we will get out 34 vix in a moment. bitcoin under 33,000 joining the party. jonathan: big moves there and in the equity market and foreign-exchange as well. dollar index the strongest since 2002. tom: we are very dollar centric, and by that i mean foreign-exchange centric. turkish lira blowing through 15. the immovable force is the 10 year yield, 3.18%. did we get to 3% of a cup of coffee ago? jonathan: 3.20% now. the five-year the highest since 2008. we are pushing ahead to the big one this week, cpi this wednesday. lisa: looking forward, is that going to be something we see decelerate, this idea perhaps the fed will get a reprieve from that? we are talking about the idea of risk not stemming from the fed, stemming from supply chains out of china, stemming from oil prices that are searching having to do with

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: a fed day on radio and television. we continue our coverage. paul romer, dealing with technology in this most unusual cycle. jonathan: what a difficult time for them. some might argue they got themselves into it. this is what we are looking forward to today, a 50 basis point move. from there, things get more complex. that is why people think today it will be difficult for the fed to outhawk expectations, because expectations are very frontloaded right now. what could be interesting about the market is any assessment of the future. tom: moments ago, talking about yes it is a store but also uneventful. i'm not so sure. the last time i was humbled, a lot went on. jonathan: a lot of people want to know the answer to the 75 basis point meeting for the next few meetings. i'm not suggesting he will do that, but how he answers that, a lot of people will look for the hints that lie in it about what it could mean for the future path. tom: you mentioned it earlier, lisa, what a different eco

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: can we avoid a seventh straight week of losses. from new york city this morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance live -- "bloomberg surveillance" live on tv and radio. tom: a churning to a monday. the currency market is there, the equity markets just can't get a bid and there's the drawdown on radio, standard & poor's -16%, maybe that's expected in the nasdaq in particular the nonprofit making nasdaq crushed. jonathan: mike wilson exceeded crushed even more. this could pass 3400 on the s&p. valuation and technical support live. tom: everybody was adjusting a not to criticize this extremely difficult to do the point of where you're going and the timing of verio going and a lot of adjustment over the weekend. i'm just an essay everybody is data-dependent including equity market strategist. jonathan: last week the fed president gave the game up for a lot of people. again and again, i expect financial condition to tighten even more. i would like to see continued ti

live on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. utures down another 1.9%. tom: what we can say across three hours over the preshow preparation and starting surveillance this morning, it is a situation that

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. hon radio come on television, an important date :00 our wall street time. retail sales, it is simple. i can get the full english breakfast at walmart for six dollars 54 cents. let's link walmart into what we are going to see in 29 minutes. jonathan: did you just confuse a full english breakfast with breakfast tea? looking forward to it. a: 30 eastern time, retail sales. then the reaction from chairman powell little bit later this afternoon. we have said repeatedly on this show we know how consumers feel. they tell is in the surveys. they don't feel great. consumer sentiment numbers decade lows. what are they doing? we will get a snippet of that this morning. tom: we will review what we talked about two hours ago with the backdrop we got a guest coming up that says calm down about inflation, but there's no calm in the bank of america fund managers survey. jonathan: absolutely not. growth expeditions are at record lows. you've got an allocation to equities an

tom keene and lisa abramowicz. we are in a monetary inflation, which is a very different animal. we sing inflation has a 6 -- cyclical inflation is when you get a pop, pushes up against capacity constraints, inflation goes up. money and credit are under control. this is a monetary inflation like the 70's. it was triggered at the national -- the massive injection of credit by policy, which has created a self-reinforcing process. very high levels of nominal spending. 10% nominal gdp growth. i mean, it is a long time since we have seen i nominal gdp growth, right? so there is things happening other people are not used to, because we have not seen these dynamics for some time. the result of a monetary inflation is high nominal gdp growth, and then that gets absorbed by prices, so you get low real growth. that produces stagflation, which creates a very difficult policy choice. lisa: do you think the u.s. is facing stagflation? bob: we are headed toward it. lisa: in the next 12 months? bob: we are headed toward it. [laug

brian moynihan spoke to tom keene. >> multiples are bigger.had a two or $3000 average collective balance, they now have one to 2000, it is now almost $4000. a person with 2500 would now have $13,000. so just step back and think about it, you grew 5% in the month of april for march. consumers have more money in their accounts. the idea that they spent the pandemic money in january and march last year is just untrue. the second question is did they pay down their credit balances? the third point is, are they spending? in the first two weeks of may, the consumer spend 10% more than they did last may, that is over-the-top payments that went out for taxes. you could say well, it is inflationary, 8% more transactions. >> i don't want to interrupt, this is the real moynahan, guys. this is the bank near giving us the operational stuff here. >> this goes to the heart of one of the questions at the moment, everyone is talking recession and stagflation, what you are saying does not scream stagflation or recession. >> this is what makes the feds jump hard

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and we. tom: good morning, everyone. jobs day in america on radio and television. it is also markets, markets, markets. we have to go to the markets even with jobs 30 minutes away. the bid is not there. jonathan: yesterday, a lot of mayhem. a lot of people got comfortable after the federal reserve meeting, talking about a longer-term narrative, maybe this was an inflection point. the market punish that view. absolutely whipsawed in this market. 29 minutes, we have a payrolls report. median estimate is 380,000. i'm interested in the data, and how do we respond to this incoming information given the market pricing at the moment? tom: what is important is the character of this pullback we have seen, the idea that it is short and sharp. that has changed. some huge bear markets in sectors, individual securities. this is no different than short and sharp. jonathan: lifting the lid on the index, going through the numbers that be of a put out this morning. 77% of the nasdaq is already in a bear market

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowitz. >> we welcome you want a perfect day in london after the horrific weather in switzerland. we end the headline for this week without question, is finally a bid to equities. lisa: we had a moment with equities going back 10 weeks, we see possibly the first weekly gain and equities, going back eight weeks. tom: we are going to get to this at a moment. we need to talk about what we have seen the davos, what we bring to london in the international since of the city, the international sense of finance. what we heard in davos, we need international solutions to these crises we have. lisa: some cohesion to remedy the issues with high food prices, high gas and tax prices. this is a global feel we saw in davos, the focus is on europe and what is going on with ukraine. tom: larry will join celebrating howard davies new book out, francine lacqua speaking with sir howard in the last hour. we will touch on that, as well. let's get to it. the important conversations we have, lisa is briefing us. >> this is an imp

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. on radio, until bullish and -- on radio, on television. we interrupt this hour of "bloomberg surveillance" to see retail america at new lows. target just breaking down 24%, a big 51 point move right now. jonathan: it is walmart volume and some. walmart got hammered yesterday. margin pressure is here right now. talking about it for quarters. here it is. tom: what we get is a value added in the last hour. it is about the net income, ebit., and all the others. joe feldman goes to where the target executives are, what is up the income statement to gross margin. the way you fix gross margin is cut costs. jonathan: i would love to know where target has been. they have been under a rock. how are you surprised by higher costs? we talk about it everyday. tom: maybe it is the magnitude of higher costs or a sum of moving costs. it is down now big. just making those lows, but in defense of them and everybody else in retail, they are working with in a pandemic, but now

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. thank you for joining on radio, on television. 8:31 friday morning. what will be the state of play? jonathan: 390,000, the estimate on payrolls. the previous, 341,000. unemployment may be at 3.5%. the data pretty decent. the earnings, so far, so good. fears about the future and this federal reserve. whether they have to respond to this fears about the future and the next few months. most people assume they won't through the summer. tom: we are getting ahead of the story. tomorrow, that fed meeting. i'm sorry, jerome powell is looking at a fully employed america, according to too many voices. jonathan: and that is why he's set to hike rates 50 basis points, and then maybe 50 again, and then let's see what happens. things get interesting towards the back have of the year. he believes this economy is resilient. he can hike rates may be 50 basis points tomorrow. does he had that view further down the road, and will he be faced with the ultimate dilemma, growth

joining us next on this program with tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, in ritika gupta. there is a sign that beijing is strengthening its energy ties with moscow as europe turns towards banning exports. china wants to replenish stockpiles with cheap crude from russia. president biden will meet today with the leaders of finland and sweden to discuss the bid to join nato. president erdogan as opposed because of the two countries housing those they -- he says are terrorists. in london, police wrapped up their investigation -- more than 126 fines have been issued to downing street. iag has agreed to buy 747 max jets and concludes a widely watched commitment that was reached three years ago. the 50 planes have a price of about $60 billion that iga says it is negotiating. 7.8 billion dollar hedge fund melvin financial management, more than a month ago it was in a game shot -- gamestop short squeeze. it never recovered. a comeback showed promise but never -- global news 24 hours a day,

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. lisa: a moment of calm in markets. the world's elite joining us at the world economic forum, where we are broadcasting live in davos, switzerland. good morning to all of you back in new york, to london, to those of you in switzerland. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg television and radio. jon ferro on assignment in capri. we will perhaps be heading there next. i digress for a moment. we reassessed the landscape we are in after crisis after crisis. tom: we are reassessing the green behind us. it is gorgeous here in switzerland. that is not news, but really a first for the world economic forum. 51 years. with the pandemic and all, they are trying to get it going again from january 2020. what stuns me is how this is such a different davos, even from 2008 and the shock of 2009. lisa: it is not cold, for one. but besides that, there is a recapitulation of what it means to solve problems at a time when you have food prices that are spiraling. you have conflict in ukraine