this is bloomberg surveillance live on tv and radio alongside tom keene erie dime jonathan ferro. together with anna edwards out of london. lisa will be back with us tuesday. futures done little bit, up one point --.1%. tom: i like [indiscernible] she leads with wage dynamics matter here. i totally agree, the adp report all news, wages 7% plus off of that report. you wonder what we will see about america's paycheck. jonathan: it has been great for a, better than expected. the team not looking for 75 basis points in september. tom: interesting. jonathan: now looking for a 50 basis points there too in november. a big change to chairman powell. of a week ago. tom: it is a movable feast. we will have a good amount of guests with us as well but i really want to emphasize it is an unusual jobs day because it is an unusual global market. we talked about yields in the last hour, foreign exchange, you mentioned the word, it is unreal. jonathan: the dollar stronger, euro-dollar, 997. we have to get used to making cable at 115, dollar-yen at 114. something we have not been able to say for a l

announcer: this is "bloomberg serveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. than: anglicans country today, paying tribute to queen elizabeth. good morning, this is bloomberg surveillance. tom, you said it all morning. those problems will not go away. tom: they will not go away. the problems you centered around the inflation picture we will see in the united states tomorrow. so much more going down the embankment and looking over. that is just one issue for the united kingdom. jonathan: lisa, ukraine starting progress over the weekend. lisa: with a count of russian soldiers fleeing ukrainian areas that the police the catcher, getting pushed out as ukraine repeatedly is reclaiming that land with the help of the u.s. weapons systems and the weapons systems of allies. how much does this change the backdrop of the energy crisis? tom: for a miracle they can up this morning, five hours difference this morning, an extraordinary moment. i can't say enough about the importance of westminster hall with his coffin will rest recently today, with some gathering today includ

equity markets go further from here. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with jon ferro, team -- tom keeneabout the dog days of august, the markets are on the move. in this hour, they will move further. we've got data, we've got productivity data. at 10:00 a.m., the first look at august. jonathan: a survey on manufacturing will be important from a niacin. jobless claims in 30 and its. then, payrolls friday. 298,000 on payrolls. i said, it is good news, bad news. he said, bad news is bad news. not good for the equity market now. tom: we see it with the data. the data in a europe is grim. anna edwards in for bramo, thrilled with her view on the linkage to the political debate in the united kingdom into the grim data. jon, you go to anna. sterling says all. jonathan: weaker with a big back up in the yields this morning, a clean break. 150.52 is the low. we are above those lows at 150.70. walk us through the challenge the u.k. faces and the whole of europe faces. anna: the u.k. in the u.k. case specifically, waiting to find out who the prime minister is. we get that during your holiday on mond

live on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. we are looking for another 75 basis point hike. tom: markets very dynamic this afternoon. we start strong with dominic any moment. i'm going to push it aside for the real yield. everyone out there noting that finally, the real yield matters. jonathan: the 10 year bond hasn't changed for two days, the first time since 1999. before we get carried away. the doj has gone nowhere, it seems. tom: everybody's afraid they are going to act to make the yen stronger. what that could speak to is a shift in the last few days. and i'm sorry, this will affect the press conference this afternoon. that has got to get everyone's attention at the press conference. jonathan: it has got our attention already in a massive way. the middle of march, about zero. six months later, basically at 3% a little bit later on. we went from the end of 2015 at zero, three years later up to 2.25%. think about how much it took last night over three years to get there. and this time, about six months, or even more. lisa: ar

announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. s. we will look at the currencies in the moment. commodities are one of the giants of the industry. right now, i'm going to call german inflation, i'm going to call it may be a little elevated over what we have seen and what the survey predictions have been. jonathon: double-digit inflation in germany. truly historic. double-digit inflation. put in the diary. the next meeting is october 27. people will want qt and a monthly rate hike. we have seen this policy conflict play out between financial stability and monetary policy in the u.k. unless 24 hours. does that play out in europe any more pronounced way, with some of the committee pushing harder for bringing inflation back down? at the same time, ec financial risk bubbling away in the market. tom: this is so important. thank you for all the notes on radio and tv over the quality yesterday. we will continue in this hour. michael spence will join us later in the hour. jonathon, i want you to frame right the political dialogue you hear f

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.ouncing back on the s&p , the nasdaq up .75%. tom: this is a global tuesday and a global tuesday is currencies in revolt. they are the litmus paper of the system and they are screaming fiscal stress. jonathan: fiscal relief as the topic of discussion in europe. $130 billion potentially from liz truss and then $40 billion to help small businesses. that is 170 billion sterling, a lot of money in the u.k.. how does the bond market finance it? tom: the answer is yes. they can always finance it. every single war gets financed. it is the question of what happens after that. that is the question of united kingdom productivity. if they have to go out on a 10 year plan what is the productivity of the nation? jonathan: how high does that you'll need to go, how much weaker does their currency need to get? lisa: and how unsustainable is that rate for a global economy that has taken on so much debt? this is the distinction between now and previous bouts where they're needed to be borrowing to pay f

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz. >> >> the u.k. is at the epicenter of the world. live from london for our audience worldwide, this is a brick surveillance, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. we are live from london for the next 10 days. a somber mood hanging over the country. tom: different from january. he picked it up right on heathrow today. it is the beginning of 10 days of mourning for the queen. getting used to it, we will hear from charles the third. >> a change of leadership in more ways than one. lisa: massive change on multiple fronts. you have a change for the new prime minister and change for the new inflationary regime. you had the change with brexit and the change in the person who is the glue for cultural aspects of modern britain. how will the new leader take over? tom: the number one buzzword has been continuity. how many times have we heard the word continuity? 70 years on the throne. the biggest statistic i've heard over the last 24 hours has been the fact that she rained for longer th

tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and i am jonathan ferro. t few hours, you will hear from president lagarde and chairman powell. tom: liz truss just made announcement. you will wonder what christine lagarde will do with moving parities. jonathon: can she move the euro with higher interest rates? is it even about higher interest rates? does it even make a difference with this euro? tom: we are in a war economy. certainly, the updates in ukraine, taking some square footage, shows the back-and-forth of the war. she has got to address the war. jonathon: when it comes to sterling, are there other avenues? lisa: i don't know. the pound is down 0.1%. i wonder how liquid this market is, at a time when other people have called it -- i don't want to throw you under the bus -- given all the volatility behind the scenes. right now, we are looking at, is the market being dictated by something other than central banks? bankers are scrambling to try to get some kind of decision response. jonathon: inflation is flooding the u.k. and particularly europe as we

announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance with jonathan ferro, tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. jonathon: good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance on bloomberg tv and radio. markets unmoved on the tk. tom: what is it, 7 a.m. morning wall street time? will the bank of england intervened england intervene to protect sterling? it's not going to happen, but we are thinking about it. jonathon: can you imagine finishing the day with dollar-yen unchanged? tom: it is pretty elegant, that's all i can say. i did a fancy study that you can only do on the bloomberg terminal. we have an absolutely perfect 50% replacement strong in -- yen . jonathon: you can talk, but you have to talk about the underlying policy issues. lisa: how much also do they have to embrace? they came out overnight, they reiterated their yield curve control, they have been buying bonds at an incredible pace, about 2 trillion yen worth of crab -- bonds. this is the interesting thing. semi five basis points. they are actually a negative rate for the first time in years. with what we saw, just based on this idea that it

live from london, with tom keene who will county down to the cpi report. for second breakfast. jonathan: knows what else. futures positive. this is bloomberg. ♪ pst. girl. you can do better. at least with your big-name wireless carrier. with xfinity mobile you can get unlimited for $30 per month on the nation's most reliable 5g network. they can even save you hundreds a year on your wireless bill over t-mobile, at&t, and verizon. wow. i can do better! yes you can! i can do better, too! now you really can do better! switch to the fastest mobile service - xfinity mobile. now with the best price on two lines of unlimited. just $30 a line. when people come, they say they've tried lots of diets, nothing's worked or they've lost the same 10, 20, 50 pounds over and over again. they need a real solution. i've always fought with 5-10 pounds all the time. eating all these different things and nothing's ever working. i've done the diets, all the diets. before golo, i was barely eating but the weight wasn't going anywhere. the secret to losing weight and keeping it of

tool. >> it is not something we can tap out. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with jon ferro, tom keenemowicz. tom: a historic monday how occurring -- occurring. jordan rochester, the prediction of sterling below parity. jordan rochester says, hope is not a strategy for your united kingdom. jonathan: 97th by year-end, 95 by q1 next year. dollar dominance continues over sterling, a victim of that. tom: these are unique times, global unique times. we are thrilled to bring you brandon -- later on, jean to news 02 talk to us about the damage in fixed income. the damage is pretty much everywhere, although equities are sort of doing ok. jonathan: down .6% on the s&p. repricing a terminal rate of central banks, looking at a extra 200 basis points from the bank of england by the end of next year. by november meeting, 200 basis points, phenomenal stuff. 12 months ago, 20 basis points. right now, close to 430. massive, massive change. tom: a headline from bloomberg, when they are important, we do a red sticky. bank of england still to decide if it will comment on sterling. jonathan: a move we hav

i'm jonathan ferro, alongside several whitsun tom keene. -- alongside lisa abramowicz and tom keene. ed during the break, it is correlated, but it is sticking out like a sore thumb, the 10 year yield to a new high-level, 1.01, positive yield. that is a change for everybody listening and watching on bloomberg. jonathan: let's bring it to two's. lisa, 370. and then we just made another one. lisa: we are watching this because honestly, this has been the direction of stocks in the opposite direction. two year yields has climbed southerly to 3.8% and keeps climbing. the pace of move has been jaw-dropping. the pace of resetting the understanding of what the fed do has shifted. jonathan: that cpi print four hours or so ago has disrupted the narrative around the step down from 75 basis point hikes to 50 to 25. every single note i read from every bank in question, he is looking for 75 next week and the potential of another 75 in november from the fed. it raises questions on how much more they have to do, and, more importantly, the risk assets, how much more damage needs to be done to the econo

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and leeson abramowitz. -- lisa abramowitz. jonathon: equity features. strike on, strike off. it looks like it is off. tom: maybe that is because of president bidens charity. there is a staggering deal with wage increases. it has to be front and center. that is what we -- jonathon: that is what we need to discuss. lisa: this is at a time when you have a shortage of workers and employees really do have to step up. even now, at a time when people are warning of pretty dire circumstances should this strike go into effect. jonathon: we will catch up with the team in washington in washington about 10 minutes. we are all looking at the bond market, looking at stocks. 40 basis points higher on the two-year. this equity market is still 7% or eight percent above the lows of june. can you work that out for me? tom: i can go there. i will say there is some incredible bond math. stay tuned for that in radio. this is creating higher bond markets. [crosstalking] there are some really cool bond math going right now. jonathon: i am going to w

london for our audience, good morning this is "bloomberg surveillance" on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. that dollar a whole lot strong. tom: it is a correlated move with the dollar coming up with authority should -- ding authoritative on it. 200 business days of the year this is the five most correlated days and i heard it from fedex. jonathan: yields are up for seven straight days. that is coming up and morning about the environment. lisa: they are worried about the slowdown of activity and business confidence. to put the scale and scope for the two year deal. one full percentage point since the end of july. that is increasing by one third. tom: and now -- jonathan: and now we are talking about 4%. deutsche bank rates at 5% close to next year, that is the core. lisa: 4.9% but the market is priced in 4.5%. jonathan: summit up, marjorie -- mortgage costs, 6% average. tom: we are not talking about the finance -- the fancy financial stuff. 6.2% on mortgage. here is the math, you have -- you need a much higher income to make a housing dream happen and you will not get i

tom keene and jonathan ferro are off today.have kailey leinz and damian sassower. very much in focus are the markets. as one person put it, the markets in freefall. we are looking at the s&p not in a freefall, down 1.2%, but certainly the pound is in freefall. brent crude very much also getting focus, which i find interesting, down 3%. 97.71. you are seeing a complete reset when it comes to wall street projections for the s&p. there is a doubling down on oil prices, that they will go higher later into the year. julian lee joins us now. what do you make of that, that people are not capitulating to the idea that a lack of demand induced by recession will truly cause protracted lower oil prices? julian: the banks are looking at the physical supply demand balances and are seeing what is essentially a tight physical market. the view is that chinese demand will come back at some point, and when it does, there is not the spare capacity to boost output to meet that growth in demand. inventories are already low. they were drawn down ver

announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good to be back. live from new york city, for the audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." alongside lisa abramowicz, on jonathan ferro. futures down 9/10 on the s&p. lisa: this ahead from the federal reserve and a dozen other central banks within 24 hours. they will raise rates 500 basis points and people are trying to price and what that means. jonathan: equities down, the two-year advancing for an eighth consecutive session. the 10-year through 350. how many guests came on the last couple of months and said it was a june high? now we have a september high. lisa: this raises the question, how can buyers come back in? or is there a reset of how high inflation will stay because central banks do not want to experience the pain required to get inflation back down to 2%? we expect more discussions about this. questions about what 4.5% fed funds rates means for the economy. jonathan: i found a glimmer of hope for wells fargo with chris harvey. he said

i'm alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. futures are down 2%. the tenure is 400. >> they are deciding it is the same as it was. it was a crisis two or three days ago. my head has been spinning pit i've been up since 1:30 a.m. watching asia and europe unfold. i will point out two things. the euro gives way and it is subtle, but a weaker euro, and the 10-year is not part of the bloomberg this morning. >> a 10 year treasury market up six basis points to 4%. we go back to november 2020. that is where we are at. just think about that. all the vaccination gains of the last two years are wiped out. i was going to call it a draw crater, but it is down 4%. down 20%. the nasdaq is really getting some tension. it is down 32%. the equity is giving way. it is a different story. truly, -- you have dan eyes for the night. this will be great, but we have a global sense of this. we're going to talk about this later, but that imf statement. >> don't get me started. >> i was in a school open house last night, i was at a school open house, and that is what people w

>> this is an extended edition of bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: live from london, good morning or good afternoon. this is bloomberg surveillance and the countdown to open blended into one beautiful thing. equity futures heading lower and another leg lower in the last 30 minutes. down about 1%, 1.3 percent on the s&p 500. i am jonathan ferro. futures down 1.4% now on the s&p. i cannot keep up. tom: the deterioration of the last 90 minutes has been exceptional. your login next -- at spx 3800, we are here. dow 10,000. a dow 29,000 handle. jonathan: i do not think you mentioned the dow this morning and then you wait until the 9:00. tom: we are going into the market hour and we note the america looks at the dow. jonathan: let's look at fedex. what are we down by? 20%? lisa: staying there because of this morning. this morning has a velocity of change in the business outlook was what caused them to downgrade their guidance? how much will this be a story for others? jonathan: it is a story for michael mckee. fedex not getting a great read on th

here's what poppy gustavson told tom keene in london.: this is an area that has to be cutting edge, because so many businesses rely on their products, the energy and other sorts of supply. this is things like russia and ukraine. we have seen significant demand for our products from the energy sector because they are at heightened risk, high risk of effects on the supply to other businesses. tom: what are the specific channels they need? poppy: it is all of the above. think of how many businesses depend on energy in europe and the u.s., and that is a very easy target. if you are operating a business that can rely on some old system that has been around for decades , it is not necessarily at the cutting edge of capability. but if you are looking to enact a cyberattack for nefarious reasons, there are very high profile targets, and it makes that idea. tom: are you saying this has picked up? are the threats emanating from russia? poppy: we are not making attributions. we are not saying it is coming from one nation or another. but since the i

>> this is "bloomberg serveillance: early edition" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance. i'm jonathan ferro. futures up 10%. the close yesterday, a new low for 2022. tom: you said turnaround tuesday, that does capture. combining different asset classes and different ideas here as more to follow. bloomberg radio, same thing, more to follow. jonathan: the high, 9.31. that is quite a range. tom: guess what, folks, the pros are really looking at this volatility. one idea to look at is the real yield. you are familiar with that, this is what all the adults follow. the inflation-adjusted yields. this is stunning, stunning, stunning. 83% back from that run to the average before the great financial crisis of 2.05%. most of that has been done in the last three cups of coffee. jonathan: that is a couple of days of the yield curve in the u.k.. 100 basis points, something close to that? lisa: 50 basis points every day, showing that the five-day increase has been the most on record going back to 1979. the reason w

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: congratulations. you made it to the end of the third quarter. good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance. equity futures positive .7%. another messy quarter behind us. tom: another messy quarter. the acts of foreign affairs magazine, 2022 was his fault. look where we are in this derivative story in the united kingdom. it is absolutely front and center for mobile wall street. the bloomberg financial conditions index for the united kingdom is not reversed, it was moving down this morning to new levels of restriction for the nation. jonathan: we have got a lot of problems to deal with for the global economy and global markets. three straight porters of negative return for the s&p 500. i did not realize this. you have to go back to 2009 to see a streak that bad. lisa: when it comes to bond losses, the flipside is, there is no place to hide. stocks are selling off. the nature of that selloff is continuing to change. overnight, we have had a number of earnings. they have not gone

manus: what happens -- because tom keene is in london, we have to do homage to what the pros look at.now that tom is tuning in from the luxury of a hotel nearby. euro-yen, that is what the pros look at, but on a moderately serious note, we could be running into roadblocks on the yen. i wonder where the biggest shift will come in your mind in the back quarter. is it going to be a strengthening of yen across the board and the crosses? jane: i think it is too early to look for strengthening of the yen. we have rhetoric coming from the bank of japan officials. there was no change in their very dovish view. yes, we've had a little wage inflation, but if they give up on the dovish policy now, the gains they have made will be lost. they still see japan as being in a position that the need to nurture those green sheets of inflation to try to get inflation expectations higher, to try to get wages higher. there are some structural issues in japan for so long. finally, they are beginning to see they could be in a period where they could change that finally and they don't want to give up just yet

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance," with jonathan ferro, tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: tk did not turn up this morning. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on tv and radio. alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro, together with the brilliant kailey leinz. equity futures positive on the s&p. over the last seven days on the nasdaq, a seven-day losing streak. lisa: it has been brutal, especially the why. one of the most interesting things that happened overnight was weaker than expected chinese economic data fueling this feeling of deteriorating economic trajectory globally with the european energy crisis, china, and now potentially even in the u.s. jonathan: dollar china this close to a seven handle. how important is that? lisa: leland miller was saying it is not that important, a psychological level, bright now it does not seem like the chinese authorities are pushing back that hard. they are just trying to control how quickly they see the weakening. it seems unavoidable. if you have a currency that reflects all economic and rate differentials,

. >> new jersey gop candidate for congress tom keen will fight for parents who are being silenced as his opponent tweeted earlier this year that politicians are using kids as political pawns. all this as another senator's office not up for re-election thinks topics like this could turn a blue state bright red. >> i think this year and next year we will see closer races in new jersey than what we have seen. >> so far, one passed to keep some out of the classroom, overwhelmingly, in a largely democratic county, sandra. >> sandra: very important stuff there, parents want to know what their kids are being taught in the classroom. thank you very much. john. >> john: halfway around the world, ukrainians celebrating as some towns are liberated from russian control with putin's invasion facing a stunning setback there. live in ukraine in just moments. >> sandra: prices are still soaring coast to coast, and could be going even higher. but the white house as you saw yesterday, celebrating its recently passed inflation reduction act? so what does all this mean for the future of the economy. our

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz.lds flying over the last couple weeks. good morning. for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance" on tv and radio. t.k. back in the building tomorrow. futures down 0.4%. the s&p down 0.5%. we said it repeatedly the last ever that it is a reset in the bond market. lisa: a complete reset with the banks having decisions and all raising rates with the exception of the bank of japan. everyone is talking about regime change, fighting inflation, and you are seeing that through the market. jonathan: what gets your attention more so, the level or the speed of change we have seen the last few weeks? lisa: it is both, but the speed is shocking. the highest level yields going back to 2007, it is already there, but the speed, three percentage point increase. how much work has the bond market done for the fed? it seems like the fed does not think enough, which is the reason why they are saying 100 basis points could be on the table during the meeting. jonathan: all the way back to 20