tom keene is back tomorrow.is meeting between the president and congressional leadership at 4:00 p.m.. you speak to people while connected to the story and they tell you the same thing, they don't think anything happens today. lisa: they have to wait for the debates of drag on long enough to have political cover to do our best. this is why the market is not responding. politicians are waiting for the markets to respond. jonathan: it durable growth, rate codes, it's pretty decent stuff. lisa: to the equity balls, they have gotten it right. you can keep going with all your discussions but it has not been happening. there is this frustration that the logic is that playing out of markets the way it traditionally does. jonathan: lisa shalett joins us now. thank you for being with us. it will ask you this. how frustrating is this market when you look at all the rate cuts being prized with the same time there is this feeling that we will continue to live with growth? lisa: there are a lot of conundrums in this current

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance, with tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning on radio and on television. it is inflation wednesday. bramo has been up all night tried to figure out the vectors of inflation. jon ferro is on assignment. the answer is inflation wednesday. lisa: we worry about the bags and how much the fed still us to do it in time people are still price again rate cuts. tom: you go right to the heart of the matter. we begin strong with peter oppenheimer of goldman sachs. stay with us. lisa: either the vector has to go down or there has to be some sort of crisis. on the inflation side it seems sticky. something has to give and why the markets keep rising did that it will be the pricing side in the idea of disinflation. tom: mario gabelli will join us at the top of the 8:00 hour, widely anticipated. ferro reads every sunday morning. what is mary o'dea during. lisa: and how many people will have to talk about the debt ceiling. they kind of have to. there has been stasis. the inflation vectors are sticky . tom: do think after the coro

2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. -- this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keenetom: the productivity of america, retail sales front and center. jonathan: home depot is lighter, softer under the premarket. chuck grom of golden casket, discretionary recession is his call going into results -- retail sales later today. tom: we are still modeling numbers. the idea of 2% real gdp is not what we see here. january booming, february come i don't know. into march and april, there seems to be a mystery about the state of the consumer. jonathan: captured by the rotation of the equity market. the bankamerica -- the bank of america fund survey out later. long technique, short banks, that has been the rotation. single stories toward the big names. tom: tony dwyer with jonathan ferro on the 9:00 hour, that is important. we have a fabulous guest to get us started in this hour. i look at all of this and it is almost a joy. the debt ceiling trip to side, we had slower data in china, slower data from home depot, and there is a stew in the trade we are in. lisa: and a slower sense a

downturn it will be short and shallow but no guarantees. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene welcome on radio and television, and most interesting set of days ahead. apple earnings and a fed meeting tomorrow, today a bank reorg. there is not another bank is there? jonathan: morgan stanley. we can see that. tom: to me, and frankly this will go to the rightsizing of first republic i jp morgan is you right size and the solution is in financial difficulties to cut costs. jonathan: let's talk about the difficulty for people trying to make a call on the fed. so many headlines like that 1, 3000 morgan stanley, pick a tech firm and put a number. you haven't seen the sharp decline in a major way. the payrolls on friday, here's the median estimate, 180,000. with unemployment in and around 3.5%, looks like a decent jobs market. tom: the three months moving average, it is way above. economist that calculate the optimal nonfarm payrolls, it is shockingly low. some people are even under 100,000. they look at the data and say this is a boom -- boone labor economy. jonathan: overwhelmingly b

good morning, for our audiences worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio alongside tom keenero. futures done by point 3%, debt ceiling talks resuming in washington. tom: i don't know what is going to happen. the number i want to know right now is the good people with secretary yellen, what is her calculation of the cash in the account and the cash room at the treasury? jonathan: follow the numbers. don't listen to the moon room. it is going back and forth, impacting talks again. lisa: it is difficult to get any indication from the mood music. i liked your suggestion yesterday -- or happy things. people are ignoring it all. how close are we and can we get any consensus or are we risking technical default? jonathan: every time a politician in washington speaks, they should have music, violins. when it is happy, it is happy. clown music might be appropriate. lisa: you could dj. jonathan: i'm sure everyone would love that. maybe not. we have a breakdown in cyclical stories, copper south of 8000, a new low. luxury names performed in a monster way in europe, breaking down yesterday

i heard tom keene view a shadow on surveillance this morning, i said we have to get him. shares of tyson foods recording their biggest drop in over three years after cutting their full-year sales forecast, the ceo saying a challenging market as consumers switch to cheaper foods. michael hurts her joins us for more. what is cheaper than chicken? michael: chicken is usually one of the cheapest ones, people are moving from beef to chicken, steak to a burger, then down from a burger to maybe chicken breast and that will be happening across tyson's business. seeing a lot lower returns than what they got during the covid-19 outbreak, which is when they made record profits. jon: in your story, you talk about the squeeze that companies like tyson and others are feeling, with respect to input costs. michael: when russia invaded ukraine roughly a year ago, meat prices went to a record. we still have a drought across a good chunk of the center of the u.s., so tyson is paying more to feed their animals. costs are going up. at the same time, consumers are trying to cut back on spendin

announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. on radio and television, paddling the duck and the duct this morning is a duck of optimism. optimism in the air. jonathan: that's interesting. is that we want to say? tom: it is. jonathan: it has been a bumpy road. no way we talked about these numbers a few times that tuesday we had the biggest one-day law since may 4 and then wednesday we had the biggest one-day gain since may 5. here we are on the s&p, struggling to break out of a range. the economic data, about 29 minutes from now, we look at jobless claims. 264 is the previous number, 251 is the estimate in our survey and let's see if that comes back. -- comes back down. that is the theme the last couple days. bloomberg did a wonderful job of outlining the story of the moment, recession, recession, then let's push that further. tom: there's also this gloom about what will happen, the world will come to an end. i think there's a consensus view that earnings for the first quarter will wrap up retail now. walmart, it is the right phr

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz i'm jonathan ferro. equities up .9%. e senior opinion survey coming out. tom: is after the percentage move in the banks. it will be interesting. i look at another survey may attempt, and it is cpi wednesday. jonathan: then ppi a day later. look at pack west in the premarket, now it is up to eight. slowly crawling its weight back up. lisa: why, because they cut the dividend? very few people saying let's try to catch a falling knife. there is a question where there is a larger policy response to bring people back to banks as investors and depositors. this goes beyond faith in getting your money back but the existential profitability of these firms. jonathan: should we talk about payrolls and move in the equity market? data good, equity market up. lisa: are we now at the point where people are putting aside the idea of rate hikes sing the fed will have to cut rates. we have seen the potential consequences of tighter credit yet higher inflation then expected isn't it a problem. when did that change? jonathan: deutsche bank, l

announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. nd tom keene. we are going to step away from the new zealand banking crisis. in this hour, the labor economy of the united states of america. you mentioned iowa earlier, under 3% of unemployment rate. jonathan: 2.8%. for the country, it is .5%. we are looking for that to go up to three point 6% -- 3.6%. for this bond markets, this data has been pushed around. it is the bank stocks that have pushed around the treasury markets. that has been the story for the broader market. pac west, western alliance, names would never talk about a couple years ago. they have been kicking around the two year and rate cut expectations. tom: we will do the data check in a moment. to the whisper number of what we are going to see in 28 minutes is of goldman sachs and others nudging up a bit off adp, where they really do not have confidence. jonathan: on monday, the market was kicked around by data. it is the component of the ism manufacturing number monday that moved the market together with a bunch of dat

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: we are here with michael block. jonathan: 151 yards out. look at that. what a shot. tom: outstanding. let's listen to the crowd at oak hill. [laughter] jonathan: thanks for getting involved. tom: this is golf in america over the weekend and it was a club i have the fondest memories of. jonathan: what a story. tom: it gets better and better. jonathan: i don't think i've ever seen a hole-in-one like that straight into the cup. i'm told that they were charging $150 per hour for lessons and he picked up 280 $8,000 over the weekend. tom: what we try to do every day is to be understanding about the markets. the way cbs did it even with rain saturday. there is july and winter and that's it. jonathan: from new york city this morning, good morning, we will practice next time, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. s&p futures are slightly negative. debt ceiling talks are on and off for good or ok. we get another round later on. tom: the president is coming back home

tom keen to prove it wasn't a one off.as a tri—line. only at 14—0 did wigan start playing the sort of rugby that led them to the trophy last year. bevon french started the revival. the australian added another before junior levelled the score is an unforgettable fashion. with 15 minutes on the clock, this was now all about timing, and it was wigan who showed the position. ryan's pass found jake, and the comeback was sealed. leeds will feel hard done by, but it is the defending champions who march on and who is to say that they can't go all the way again? la rochelle have won the european cup for the second year in a row — beating leinster 27—26 in dublin the irish side raced into a 17—0 in the opening 12 minutes with hooker dan sheehan scoring two of them. but la rochelle came roaring back in the second half. georges—henri colombe's try put the french side one point away and then antoine hastoy�*s conversion sealed the victory. not only have la rochelle won back—to—back to titles but they've also beaten leinster in success

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: this is "bloomberg surveillance." one stock is absolutely flying. nvidia is up by 25% in the premarket, adding serious weight to the market cap. tom: it is a game changer. i am not smart enough to tell you what it means in generative ai and faster computing, but it is truly game changing even if you don't care about the big seven stocks lifting everything up. this is different from what microsoft or google does. jonathan: all raising their price targets on the stock. 11 billion reasons to stay long. an unprecedented influx of orders associated with ai. barclays says that this was at least a quarter early. extraordinary in magnitude. lisa: evercore said what can we say other than just wow. they blew out of the water expectations. we are looking at one of the biggest one-day increases in market history. we are looking at a valuation for this company with a fraction of the sales of amazon that is the same almost as amazon.com. is the hype more than the actuality, number one. num

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. ♪ jonathan: bramos a way so this show is going to be unhinged for three hours. this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio. your equity market slightly softer negative on the s&p 500 down a touch after ai went nuts yesterday in the stock market. tom: historic day. the scale of the move is extraordinary. let's pause on that. some terrific guests coming up. standard deviation jumps, it was a 4.4 steve -- standard deviation move jump in nvidia. you go to the in vm be panel on bloomberg and look at the nasdaq 100, i framed it for 27% of the big dies. gone. that is ancient history. line them up. microsoft, apple, nvidia, google, 51 percent of the nasdaq 100. never have i framed that. jonathan: intraday nasdaq 100 up -- up 27%. nvidia year to date up 160%. meta year to date up 110%. michael hardin at bank of america this morning, bonds and bubbles. he said 4% real yields pop the internet bubble. the market is saying 150 basis points, too low to pop ai. tom: pop ai, i am not sure where to go with that. ale

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: you know the people who take the long weekend and have an extra day off, bramo. she is stretching out the long weekend. tom: she's up in the adirondacks. it's terrible. it's like fourth or fifth lake. jonathan: i'm not sure what that was. tom: canoeing. jonathan: oh, i see. tom: she is up there flyfishing. she holds it like this. jonathan: stability. i'm sure you have done that many times. she will be back for payrolls friday, we hope. in new york city this morning, good morning, good morning. equity futures are better than good now, up by 0.6% on the s&p 500. you got to get that debt deal through congress. let's get to nvidia, up by more than 3% in the premarket. this close to a $1 trillion market cap. tom: it's not a parlor game to me. there is legitimacy here. these are benchmarks that matter. they matter on how they did it. apple did it differently and microsoft did it differently but i look at the number of employees. over $200,000 -- over 200,000 employees but nvidia is

economy is in a different place than the rest of the world. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keeneramowicz. tom: good morning. a china slow down. a commodity slow down the. bob michele looking for 3%. leading the way in the commodity slow down, american oil $67.53. nothing else has to be said today. jonathan: germany out with inflation coming in below expectations and south of the previous month. you put it together we still have a six handle of cpi over in germany. the pressure will be on the ecb to hike again june 15. tom: they're going the right way in france, spain, and now germany. japan out with a slower set of economic data today. that is the trend of the morning against audio and the weaker euro. jonathan: growth is going with it. manufacturing south of 50 now. in contractionary territory in china and europe. that is what we have it euro 106. tom: what is fascinating is the response. you have fed speakers today. the response from europe. the response from christine lagarde. how does beijing respond to this given the politics of the moment? lisa: how much ammunition they act

lisa: now we know tom keene's secrets. nusra around the world's -- federal reserve chaired jerome powell did the latest 25 basis point interest rate increase says it may be the last which may mean they pause their tightening in june he pushed back against expectations the fed will cut rates by the end of the year. and poses almost half of adults in the u.s. worried about deposits are not safe. that's a level of concern as high or higher than the 2008 financial crisis and it was conducted last month. following failures of silicon valley bank and signature bank. td bank and first arise never agreed to terminate their $13.4 billion merger agreement. the two banks said there was uncertainty if and when regulatory approvals could be obtained. td bank will pay first horizon $200 million to terminate. shares of first horizon plunged more than 30%. the u.s. senate voted to reinstate tariffs as high as 254% on solar panels from southeast asia. the bill now goes to the president who has promised to veto it and this underscores a dee

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan arrow and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: we need special mood music when they say the talks were good. do you know what i mean? and violins if it gets really bad. tom: i think the nation is worn out by it. let's get to june and get it fixed and move on. jonathan: talks were productive, are you ready to move on? tom: i saw it last night about 8:00 p.m. and starting to see the language area you mention this yesterday, janet yellen's phrase that this way but we have phrase at this weight just this week but let's look ahead toward tuesday. jonathan: we will catch up with greg valliere a little later. if the x day is june 1, we are in trouble here. lisa: that's why the mood talks are helping. people might say their list of reasons but it's clear that it's political dynamite for either side to allow the u.s. to default. at the same time, they are not getting closer to a resolution but the deadline is drawing near so the chance for a technical default arising. tom: we will start with an expert on those dynamics and all tha

for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz,, i'm jonathan ferro. talks will resume on the debt ceiling tomorrow between mr. mccarthy alongside resident biden. some soothing words over the weekend from brainerd over the economy saying this. "the staff is seriously engaged." tom: the key word here is staff. these are the people doing the tough negotiations. excuse my gasping over the debt ceiling. lisa: [laughter] tom: the answer is it will get done. it is a normal process to get there. i predict they will kick the can down the road. jonathan: we hope we are making some progress. secretary ellen spoke to the team in japan at bloomberg. we could get -- janet yellen spoke to the team in japan that bloomberg. lisa: the tax receipts were not as fruitful as people expected. it creates a bit of an ambiguity. the negotiations are continuing to make progress. they have until friday and then everyone is on vacation forever. tom: do they do that in england? jonathan: they do a little bit of that. tom: this was 150 years ago. there is a huge

it is quite possible we do get that soft landing. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan. tom: on a friday, it is a bull market friday and we welcome all of you on radio and television. 16 is 15.95. jonathan: the two-year guild, 4.27, a big change encouraged by the words of the dallas fed chair. it could show that it's appropriate to skip a meeting. she is leaving that door wide open. tom: skipping a meeting, is ignoring dinner. lisa: that's a dessert spoon. tom: every green tea ice cream the president is missing. jonathan: i think they want us to be talking about, he will leave dinner early and talk about negotiations. the fact of the matter, they are hoping there is a framework for the agreement. the treasury's cash balance has come in from 140 two something like 60 billion, 68 billion to be specific. tom: we have an important wall street guest with us. john deere with the 36% up. lisa: there are glimmers of shoots at something. people are taking risks off the table to tie ideas together. at what point will corporate resilience lead the way up in the sense there is opti

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: good, lesser inflation in america and a greater inflation in the united kingdom. the comments over the bank of england announcement. jamie -- jamie dimon, francine lacqua and the disney debacle. the bank of england, this is the difference between the united kingdom and america. lisa: hiking into weakness and acknowledging it. basically saying things will get worse and we need them to get worse to bring down inflation which is still double digits even after 11 consecutive rate hikes. tom: we have the perfect cast, jeffrey who will join us on the cultural approach to whipping inflation in the united kingdom or whipping it here. let us go to what we saw yesterday in america. mike mckee nailed it with his new index that chairman powell is looking at, things are pretty good. lisa: things are coming down as expected. the question is where do we go and how messy do we get in the process to head down. i will say today that we will get factory price inputs. and this to me will be interesti

announcer:this is bloomberg a "surveillance" with jonathan ferro, tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. od morning, good morning. equity market positive by 0.1% on the s&p 500. western alliance trying to bounce into premarket, still -.46%. yesterday, an ugly session. tom: that is a stagflation session. but it does come over to banking. so many institutional players are saying that was harsh, it is all over. i got a lot of pushback about first republic. jonathon: the former dallas fed president essentially said the same thing to our colleagues yesterday. he said to wait for the credit. lisa: and we don't know what these are. this will be a self fulfilling prophecy, when you have a situation where there are fewer deposits, ending into weakness at a time of rates staying high. jonathon: we have a great guest around the table with us. equity market positive by 0.1% on the s&p 500. bond market, yields up. tuesday, yields down or than 10 basis points. today, down 2. tom: what did they do? exxon to the rescue. jonathon: wti on handle for the first time this month. lisa: is this really sensing o

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: we are having a wonderful time and things are going well. the actual words from the president yesterday. i feel the same way. from new york city this morning, good morning, good morning and for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance. your equity market is positive by 0.3% on the s&p 500 and the retail story dominated things yesterday. a little bit later we will get target and walmart tomorrow. tom: the currents are going back and forth in the trade is everywhere and there is a distraction of what's going on in washington but you have to look at retail and the huge impact of 70% of our gdp. nothing like the japan numbers but the answer is after home depot, walmart is important. jonathan: and the resilience of the u.s. consumer. let's talk about western alliance where we got some good news. deposits are moving in the right direction since the last quarter. lisa: a billion-dollar increase so release your deposits and the balance every week to basically show resi

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. the bidding to acquire first republic bank. from new york city this morning, good morning for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio. your equity market on the s&p 500 is -.0 .1%. going into the fed wednesday commend the bank in america essentially, effectively failing lisa: the second biggest failure in america's history and this comes a month after silicon valley bank's failure. how much more is there and what kind of pattern does this set in terms of what kind of agreement of this nature looks like? jonathan: the second and third biggest bank failures in u.s. history have come in the last six weeks. the last time we got one, the federal reserve followed up a week or so later with a rate hike. now seemingly, the federal reserve will follow this one with a rate hike and a lot of people say there are different issues. they've got an inflation problem so do we need to talk about something different? lisa: people are saying it would be idiosyncratic and t

for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. >> zero point 4% on the s&p 500. a meeting between the president and the house speaker. delayed. we were told it will continue speaking. that is pushback. >> that is politics. a meeting between yellen and horton in japan. may be some substance, but the debt ceiling is pretty much exhausted. what i am focused on is a problem that won't go away. mr. diamond mentioned this. the bank charts are really not good out of friday. >> the problem that won't go away and a lot of people feel the same ways about the debt ceiling conversation by will go with you. crushed yesterday. here's the quote. headlines increased customer fears and the safety of deposits. we understand deposits fell 9.5% in the subsequent days. the days after news report suggested they were in talks with investors. >> this is a conundrum underneath the regional banking crisis kerfuffle. if you look at western alliance, they said they increase deposits. so is this a pack west problem or is this

keen. it may not be what i want to hear, but it's always on point. >> thank you, katie. >>>. >> of course. tomn with senator tim scott for one of his first interviews as an official presidential candidate, asking about his race against donald trump. >> sent a tweet saying good luck to senator tim scott in entering the republican presidential primary race. he is complimenting you. it's rapidly loading up with lots of people, and tim is a big step up from ron detank moneyious. it doesn't sound like former president trump is worried about you. >> i'll say this. i appreciate his vote as well. i do think that the power of persuasion is necessary for the next president. i happen to look forward to being that next president. so i will take all the votes i can get from ninny where, any time as i head into this action. >> i'm listening to you. you're saying you're a better deal maker than former president trump? >> what i'm saying is i look forward to persuading the american people right and left within my base and on the far side to making sure that we move this country forward using common sense, fin