announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. into a full hour session on recession. jonathan ferro on assignment. recession signals abound. lisa a: this has been a massive narrative shift. we saw it slowly and then all at once. we saw the sense markets could keep rallying despite all the rate hikes. suddenly, it reset. tom: on the radio, you caught it guess the recession friday. we have a great set of guests to start your week in conversation. adam posen will join us later. richard haass will join us later. let's go through the tea leaves. can we start with oil? well under $70 a barrel. $68.75. lisa a: we have been playing this game with the yield curve. going back to 19 whatever, the german yield curve going back to 1990 two. looking at all these signals of recession that have been there but people were able to ignore them and say ai. now, they can say maybe this is over its skis and even that cannot save us. tom: the vix yesterday confounded everyone. i will try

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announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. for equity market is slightly negative on the s&p 500 after closing yesterday more than 20% higher from the october low. some may say we are back in able market. tom: and it feels like it. you saw it on the opening montage with ed yardeni. the bottom line is the debate is raging into this june weekend. jonathan: big time. michael harden of bank of america says we have gone from recession feared to goldilocks green. it is clear that when you strip out the base seven, the s&p year to date is down 1%. that is the quote this morning from michael hartnett. lisa a: this you mean this is fragile or just beginning. there is an opinion of whether this is a home market, whether it feels like one or does not. it is basically seven stocks pulling everything along. we actually saw broadening out yesterday. is that something that could continue or the end day? tom: it is a friday in june

>i think there is confusion in the markets and that's ok. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene. tom: good morning everyone. on radio on television it's a quiet day. no, it's not. a little bit of optimism, a lot of people pushing against that and you see it in the turmoil over the first two hours of bloomberg surveillance equities jonathan: left. positive on the s&p 500. we can talk about the doom and gloom. we are talking about the pain trade with the a i i according to city. lisa cut up with him in the last 24 hours embracing his price target. and pretty constructive on this equity market as well, tom. the job market refuses to land but wage inflation is coasting lower is the ai euphoria leading the stock market into the mother of all mount tops. he says might prove conservative, tom. not controversial. that could be interesting. tom: everybody adapts. what's so important to me is the stages as lisa mentioned earlier. the basic idea of the ec story of hoops i was short convexity going the other way and right now it feels to me we are at the and then what? and you wonder how th

pressure off of the fence to continue to raise interest rates. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. on radio, on television. our coverage at 2:00 p.m. we will start at 1:30. so much to talk about with spirited conversation if you are not in the stock market david bailey and will be her in a moment he has nailed our dissipation in the market is necessary. you brought that up earlier it's a bull market does it matter to jerome powell? jonathan: skip, pause, it's not the end. they might take a pause on hiked interest rates. after taking interest rates, numbers matter. march 16, 2022 the s&p 500 closing that day 43.57 closed yesterday 500 basis points later. bank failures, all this conversation talk closed yesterday at 4369. tom: the fed is like a great marriage. a great marriage is no dissent and we have no dissent of the fed today. jonathan: you might get some dissent a little bit later. may be from a fed governor too. thanks for the team here at bloomberg for coming up with this stuff. since 2005 it's been that long will chairman powell welcom

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. lisa: day two of waiting for a bull market, welcome back, this is bloomberg surveillance from new york city. john is supposedly working in california on a beach, tom is on vacation. you have me again and also julian emanuel, chief equities derivatives and -- at evercore isi for the hour. it is a time when we are seeing a 20% potential gain, since lows in october, since lows in october cut is the rally real ? julian: i think so. our base case is sometimes -- sometime in the next few months, you will have a recession, so you will have a pullback. but this is a cyclical rally where we think the hallmark of the last week or so is a broadening of participation. lisa: you don't want to call it a bull market or a pause, a skip, why does it matter? >> if you go back to the tech bubble burst bear market, you had several rallies of 40 and 50% and the nasdaq of we made the final bottom. rather than labeling, you have to think about how you want to think about the long-term as an individual invest

markets that the fed does not like a surprise. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with jonathan ferro, tom keeneorning. a most interesting fed week. we to -- we welcome all of you on air and on radio. bloomberg reports a settlement of this agreement, this horrific episode with mr. epstein and jp morgan. jonathan: there were some faults out there over the weekend, that maybe we started tomorrow. the next data point is on wednesday. the federal reserve chooses a raise, a skip, or a pause. you have got andrew hardin horse who has stuck through it 25 basis points they will hike, that is his call. tom: all that matters is data dependency, and the data dependency is 8:30 tomorrow. lisa, help us. lisa: honestly, mohammed a came out and saidli -- muhammad ali camilla and said if they are truly data dependent, they will hike. if they want to say "we want to see what the hikes to date have actually done to the economy," they should say that. right now the guides is unclear because they do not know what they want. tom: i think the phrase "keep it there for a while," is key. could he dare say on wednesday t

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: can you sing of canada? can you sing that? tom: it's a good question though. oh canada. jonathan: blame canada for the smoke live from new york city this morning, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz i'm jonathan ferro. blame canada. i think we need to talk about the bond market first. blame canada for the surprise rate hike following a rate hike from the australian bank. tom: central banks like surprise. an expert on this the bottom line is surprise is always more efficacious for a central bank. the answer is they surprised yesterday and you wonder do we skip, pause, or light a bonfire june 14. jonathan: they communicated a conditional pause in january and delivered this line yesterday. it was not suit -- restrictive. people ask themselves is that's statement in chairman powell's future? lisa: if they committed to a skip what is that mean in this has been the past few weeks of pricing out rate cuts and i think t

lisa: this is as much of an endorsement people get from tom keene. ery good i thought who is this? lisa: we are looking at a higher terminal rate for the ecb. you brought this up. it is key that -- do we have the growth profile to support a 4% rate? tom: to me this is the heart of the matter. quickly here because we have so much to do with our wonderful guests. this comes down to the single emotional word for europeans and americans, eurosclerosis. there is a number of years where europeans cannot get it done they do not own apple or nvidia. we are at the imf, i asked the prime minister of italy, i ask him is eurosclerosis dead? he said no, it is still there. we have a cap on the economy how do we get to 3.7 5% or 4%? lisa: especially if you don't have nvidia or apple or meta. tom: exactly. bad form. lisa: you can call it whatever you want to call it. eggen green was brilliant on that. she said it does not matter as it would have 5-10 years ago that they may be coming back. we saw the stimulus measure a small one overnight coming out. and we heard chr

to recession. >> i think it's hard to avoid a recession. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keened lisa abramowicz. tom: job stay on radio and television. behind the headline data is cross in the building? jonathan: i haven't spotted him yet but i'm told he's going to be here in a few minutes. tom: it will be an interesting conversation. it's an interesting job stay and it's wrapped around a stock market that won't quit going higher. two items of news here. maybe let's combine them right now. china, we need stimulus bloomberg reports from our team in china. henry horton says all clear. jonathan: but let's sick with china first. considering a package to support the property market. payrolls later the good think about today is the data is good. it's just kind of good news. it doesn't mean much for the fed in june. that might change but based on what we know so far that's the interpretation. ultimately, based on the communication from the fed governor, it doesn't look like it's going to change what they think they tom: should do this month. tom:may be data dependency doesn't matter s

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, it is bank of england day. we will declare victory with a smart set of guests across this morning. we don't have governor bailey with us, but if we did, it would be interesting. lisa: especially because markets are pricing in 6% rates for the bank of england by december. this is something people had not expected and this almost guarantees a recession. the question is, is that inevitability anyway and a question of how much they can moderate the inflation in the process. tom: adam posen of the peterson institute taking the high ground on the telegraph. i'm going to go beyond the banner. he says the united kingdom needs 6.5% rates, makes it clear that maybe even higher than that. say good morning, jonathan ferro on assignment. lisa: on occasion. -- vacation. tom: a different eyelid, it is very nice. not with us which makes us lesser disease very good at the bank of england while his americans try to keep up. lisa: the appetizer is shocking. what we got from the swiss n

that there's clearly been a shift in the inflation cycle. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keenez. tom: good morning, inflation of america, we will see that in 30 minutes time. we've got a great lineup scheduled. abby joseph cohen will be with us after the cpi inflation report we just heard from a former treasury secretary jack lew and those two are great and worthy of america. they see disinflation. jonathan: what a difference 20 basis points can make because the estimate is for inflation to come down to 4.1%. can you imagine if we had a three handle on inflation? we are looking for something like 5.2% year-over-year but month-to-month -- month over month is 0.4%. a lot of people would conclude that still too hot. tom: which way does it tilt? i don't have a feel on the whisper number. asymmetric cpi inflation with deutsche bank and i don't have a sense of its .4. .4ish is.3 ish more of a big deal? jonathan: what would generate a bigger market deal? lisa: what we heard was potentially a downside surprise. people are girding for rates being high for a long time. the difficulty in

i'm alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. department store, absolute the stock performance and the price. tom: there has been some enthusiasm. you know what? it is as simple as this. -8% per year over the last 10 years. it has been a midmarket train wreck. jonathan: demands weekend. macro pressures on the consumer. i assume that gets worse. it is very difficult to get a broad understanding of what is going on with the retailer right now because they are ton consumers is not great. lisa: we heard from nordstrom's and it was better than expected. how much is this also ordering the wrong types of stuff in a pandemic economy. all of these different trends. the bottom line is this. they are seeing something very significant in terms of getting. there has to be this question of, is this on the lower end of discretionary spending? jonathan: this is their full range outlook. they had seen 367 411. down by about 12% right now. just pulling back from session highs. positive by 0.2%. if you look at the bond market, treasuries higher by

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. from new york on a monday, radio and television, the markets, yes we will look at equities. bonds, currencies, commodities, but after an extraordinary weekend it is bloomberg international relations for the next three hours. lisa: everyone wants to understand what happened over the weekend with respect to this march on osco by the wagner group by prigozhin who had been an ally of vladimir putin and what this means longer-term in terms of vladimir putin's reign and the war in ukraine in general. tom: we will go to berea to dale in a moment to give us an update. -- maria taddeo in a moment to give us an update. we are going to focus on the news and reporting as we aggregate the news sources here. bloomberg and all the rest reporting on the facts as we see them on this huge event. i was stunned. the rumors and the back-and-forth. i was looking for you on twitter. lisa: [laughter] that is true. everybody gets to be a russian expert overnight. nobody really knows. what do

john -- jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. it's been a monday and portugal and we watch it every central banker on the planet. many central bankers doing fed presidents and governors speaking. can we get them all there to talk? lisa: jay powell and also of course is counterpoint -- counterpart lagarde. tom: i'm looking at the fallout of a central bank panel in portugal on the markets. it is fascinating. an absolutely brilliant note this morning, harkening back to 2004-2005. you will love this. the vortex of instability. will they create a vortex of instability as howard edwards talked about years ago? this was a famous moment before the crisis and there is that tension out there as central bankers speak to that. lisa: are they going to go too far? that's the key concern. the u.s. possibly has a different situation, much more concerned about downed, more upside surprises in the data so maybe we get a different tone from jay powell. it is in europe, are they going to hike into a downturn that we are going to see increasingly on

tom keene, we are looking -- you can't pronounce the viewer -- tom: it is something like that.like this market wants to read that -- a couple of days of selloff led by stoxx and it wants to keep buying the dip? tom: the dip and what we had with annmarie hordern today earlier and all that is going on with mr. putin, it has not affected market -- markets. i will make it a 67 on westech -- west texas intermediate but the market is resilient. lisa: i feel like people are saying we could have every existential worry in the book and we have any the past 24 months and we are sick of it. on the ground, it looks good but what about the earnings? have we built in expectations that are too high relative to what companies can deliver. tom: we will have to see on the earnings front. delta airlines flying away and fashion and getting it done along with the rest of his business class industry. lisa: can't beat expectations. there shares tanked so how much had been built into the agitations? i wonder if we will be on this question around hawkish -- christine lagarde coming out very hawkish and

bloomberg invest in new york is underway with tom keene, a scientific advisor, shockingly talking aboutlet's take a listen. >> to northern england. once for the weekend, or it allowed covid to travel around the world. to give you the idea that -- it makes everything. we rushed upon it -- publish, my friends and i, in journals when covid came. about what happens, what the process entails. and no, they would make it look good. tom: you go after the libertarians on a policy basis. the differential equations, that mathematics of covid and the epidemiology of covid. did we get wiser in finance, any new humanity -- humility of what we witnessed? >> i'm not going there. i was in favorite -- in favor of government intervention. tom: it was not a volcano. >> there are systemic things that we have to avoid and let people buy whatever vacuum cleaner they want. it's don't interfere with personal matters and in games of government, getting involved in commerce, though not in defense. so there is the literature, people who have probably never read books. that was my comment on libertarians. but to co

growth drives inflation and inflation drives central banks. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keeneramowicz and jonathan ferro. lisa: all eyes on big tech as it continues to lead. welcome back, this is bloomberg surveillance on television and radio. tom and john are off today but i am please to say we have sarah hunt, chief market strategist at alpine, sachs and woods. we are seeing the biggest gain going back to the march concerns of what happened with the banking sector. so good to see you. it's been quite a week. is this a week of clarity or more model? >> i think it's a week of more muddle. a lot of people called for a pause in the data came in and it was iffy in terms of keeping going so i can see where applause came in. you look at underlying conditions and they are not that tight. the fed says we will tighten and the reason you are seeing conditions not so tight is if you look at the fed balance sheet and you look at the chart and run it against the s&p and attracts well and the s&p is ahead of that but the fed balance sheet had been rising. that means there is still a lot of

announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan arrow, and lisa abramowicz -- jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz on assignment this morning. i am on assignment with katie greifeld sitting in for lisette. we will try to survive the next three hours with. quarter is where you are. sidebar, apple and tim cook. apple approaches $3 trillion. dan ives has his eyes on $4 trillion. katie: you are getting headlines about apple stepping up with for antitrust charges. the state is up to antitrust charges of streaming music such as modified. we are approaching big benches but we know apple is fighting this. tom: the real answer is in the securities market. we are up again in the data security market. yes, we will decrypt crypto with katie greifeld. bob just emailed. bob from the hampton says, "do crypto." you will later. right now, we have to do the story of the equities market. what do we know about the semiconductor market yesterday that lisa was so focused on? katie: it is a hot topic on a geo scale. seems like the u.s. is trying to prot

jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and tom keene. jonathan ferro is on assignment. end of this week? maybe back on friday, i don't know. lisa a: no, through the end of the week. tom: the vix is at 13.74. i get this. there are all these oddities going on. i don't get it. i talked to dean kearney yesterday and even when he spoke, i was confused. lisa a: people talking about the earnings market and people not wanting to add to the exposure or take back but they are playing in the earnings market. they are really at stasis this morning. tom: there is lots of kurtosis. [laughter] we are looking at curve inversion. the twos-tens spread all up. 97 basis points, ever so much wider. a revisit to 100 basis points would be a big deal. i learned a lot about fedex. lisa a: the big takeaway is they are able to raise prices on consumers but there volumes are dropping. you are seeing this across the board from all shipping companies. they are across the board with a below estimates and expected. yesterday, they were at one point down 7% after their reported earnings. they benefit fr

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro lisa abramowicz. ing, bloomberg surveillance. thank you for being with us amid a four-day workweek. jonathan ferro is on assignment. is he in the northern or southern hemisphere? lisa: i have to check. tom: he takes people with them just to be sure he gets all that. when an interesting tuesday in the conversation so far has been interesting win thin was interesting on dollar resiliency and he doesn't by the weak dollar. lisa: this would be one of the various pain trays that could emerge in the second half especially with the euro given that it has started to break out. tom: ben laidler got us going but coming up, sebastian page with the definitive book on what you do with allocation and what do you do with your money. we will do that in a moment. i look at the turn of the news of a clumsy three day weekend and basically, when lisa does her brief, the fed speak begins. lisa: it's important ahead of the all-important meeting of jay powell on capitol hill tomorrow and thursday. the reason why people are b

. >> "bloomberg surveillance "bloomberg surveillance this is" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. lisa: it is the quiet period. tom and jon have ditched me. luckily for us, we have lori who managed to ditch the kids and come on early to join us. really fabulous to see you. we are on the verge of this bull market. lori: it definitely feels like a downtrodden bowl. -- bull. lisa: we will get into all of that coming up but on a week like this, it is sort of a reset where people are taking a look at kind of a trickle of data coming out. this feeling that perhaps we are waiting on tender hooks to understand what the federal reserve is doing. is it a reset moment for you? do you feel like this is a gut pivot point? lori: i want to see what happens when the market reaches 4300. just seeing whether or not we can surpass that barrier. i think a lot of the technical community is looking at that as an important test. i want to see how we act when past that. in general, i do think we need this digestion period. it is the summer, a time deposit and reflect and think about the secon

. >> this is tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. >> good morning. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and tom keene. it is the friday before the beginning of the summer. we welcome all of you to the end of q2. what a first half it has been. kathy greifeld is with a spread katie greifeld. we have a full friday ahead of you. she is front and center. let's get the promotion out. top of the show, stay tuned for the real yield, because that is the only thing that matters on this friday morning. we are breaking out new inflation expectation highs. >> if we look at the five year, we are above two percent on the real yield you look at the two-year, we are on 3% watch. i'm glad you told me to look at the real yield because you are right. they are absolutely rocketing higher. things up a solid 10 basis points. blowing up to 1.68, and that takes us back to yesterday. i thought the team did great about the shock of the essay, framing up this coming quarter. we need to look for a higher yield regime. >> it was almost immediately vindicated because we have an essay a

kelly armstrong, democrat, laura chÁvez, juan from arizona, tom cole, warren davidson, warren fitzpatrick, garrett graves la, thomas keenlifornia. mark lawler from california. mike simpson from idaho. mike turner from ohio. david velado from california and steve walmack. i think it's important to call them out. >> there's no self-awareness on -- on the democrats' side. they talk about this biden story, now, as if it's nonsense, as if it's a political stunt by the republicans. completely just blanking on what they did during the russian collusion story, right, and all of the republicans are saying, well, let's look at the evidence, right? we are going to get out there. we are worried about it. we are concerned about it but let's be transparent and get the evidence out there. so far we are getting what appears to be stonewalling. maria: what a surprise. we will get more on the other side of the break. let's take a break. ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for ca

tom hollander and his fellow actor will keen on stage, on putin and russia's billionaires. the real life logan roy. actor brian cox is back after the huge success of the drama succession. rain newton smith, the boss of the cbi battling to save it, and salma shah, tory insider and former adviser at the home office. morning, morning. promises, promises — the conservatives made some huge ones in the past on imigration and they simply haven't been kept. before we talk about that let's take a look at some of the front pages. there's no one story that dominates today. the sun looks ahead to holly willoughby�*s return to the tv sofa tomorrrow after all that drama. the mirror suggests "auntie holly", claiming the bbc is trying to poach her. who knows? the sunday times features one of our talking points today — what's going on at the cbi, suggesting the former boss tony danker is going to sue. and our main conversation, migration, today on the front page of the sunday telegraph — asylum seekers ordered to share a room. we will talk to the immigration minister about that in a couple

tom: noel quinn was talking to bloomberg yesterday saying he is keen to expand to continental europe.ign with that in are you looking to add head count in continental europe? erin: our vision and ambition which after the last couple of days has only grown to be even stronger is we really want to be wherever there are pockets of innovation, talents, and capital. what we see from a european innovation economy perspective is strength and excitement. over time, working with the team to find out where there is the pole from clients to make sure we can set up wherever that might be across europe or globally. we have got a lot to do. date two of the rebrand but watch the space. tom: hsbc has a massive footprint in asia which is consequential for the overall group. the innovation banking has a western tilt so far. does asia become a big play for that part of the business? erin: overtime, absolutely. noel had an vocal about wanting to change his business and brand local to benefit our clients. starting with hong kong it makes a lot of sense. we will see post that where else we go. tom: have yo

what tom said, i tnengnt— thing is what tom said, i thought about- thing is what tom said, i thought about the plane was keento go back in well as spurs look to go back to the way that they used to play to the way that they used to play not that under mourinho and not conte so james madison not under conte so james madison for 40 million and also it's early business for tottenham as well know historically well as we know historically it's leave it right to the last minute but it's get him in 40 million and it'd be a very good signing if happens today yeah maybe if somebody that they knew was going maybe they i was going out maybe they need i don't so could you be don't think so what could you be referring no, no. you see, referring to? no, no. you see, the thing about— referring to? no, no. you see, the thing about about- twi�*cwitt “3 cwiwc \wwiw you see, the thing about about people teewtng— the thing about about people leaving teams— the thing about about people leaving teams that have gone newn— leaving teams that have gone tewn ttke— leaving teams that have gone down like - and - leaving teams that have