jonathan: we can speak to this -- we can speak to tom keene about this. iant panel coming out. what have you got to look forward to? tom: the debate about economic growth but i will be honest, as we have seen over the years that davos and imf, when the events change, the meetings change. there is a somber notice here with everyone glued in the eastern mediterranean. the managing director was emotional about it. lisa: there's a big question about how unilateral the imf brings the world together rather than trying to grapple with the splintering in the world order. how much unity do you feel in terms of resolve and goals? tom: this is an important question in that you don't hear davos speak. the managing director reaffirmed that there economic mandate, which is what they do they don't try to traipse upon what the world bank does. your point about the bond market , i was having a beverage of my choice last weekend at the hotel doing my jimmy stewart imitation and i saw the japanese yen move with the bond market. that is the great unspoken, everyone is watchin

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. we are costumed, treating, tricking. it is october -- the 31st today? halloween. i am going as yield curve control, is what we are trying to do. mrs. keene said, is that a diet? she wore black today. i went with a sort of gray motif. but it is inspired that you went as toxic brew. lisa: i was inspired. i had to dig deep to find it. but yield curve ambiguity -- i do not know what that means now. tom: jon going as the head of -- of the next head of chelsea football. maybe it was manchester. in the western world, we are looking at one thing. the act in japan. this is not funny. lisa: what did they do? created more ambiguity about what 1% as a band was, increased their inflation forecasts for this year and the year after, then they put this out from governor wade up. uncertainty is -- from governor ueda. uncertainty is high. tom: they have to adapt what is out there, and it is a busted theory. we will be hearing a lot of th

jonathan: i thought you were saying i am one quarter of tom keene.zenga joins us now. we think we have seen for the last 36 hours and i thought of you, people of new greenish identify as a 4% of gdp. we went from lincoln, southwest of your family's heritage, how do you get back to control of the party, control the narrative? rep. huizenga: that is a great question. i happen to see former speaker gingrich last night at a dinner. it is interesting. i have the comment, you play senator blumenthal quote and yes, the house is a bit of a mess right now but i would point out those who live in glass senate should not throw stones. they have not done anything when it comes to the appropriation bills. until this year and it was only when the house the and -- threatened and pushed the notion we needed to pass the bills that they actually passed anything out of committees. i'm glad to see people are realizing these massive, christmas tree on the bus -- omnibus bills are horrible way to move forward. we have a mess in the house. we cannot do anything until we pic

tom keene will be there. sure he will be trying to catch up with a host of luminaries. jonathan has gone to prep for the 9:00. i am here alongside annmarie hordern. we are pleased to have you here on a date that is pumped with uncertainty on the drumbeat of the catastrophic life -- the catastrophic loss of life and families in the middle east. it markets a little drama after a slightly hotter than expected cpi print although you are seeing s&p futures rising a touch, up .2%. yields still higher. 10 year yield still up 3%. you can see a pop through 5% on the two year yield. i want to point to specific stories i am watching in the corporate space. ford, we were talking about this potential for further profit losses after another strike target, this the very profitable plant in kentucky which manufactures the super duty versions of f-series pickups. this is the wildcard and they did it before. annmarie: what i was struck was the timing of this. we were not expecting this this morning. our analysts saying one for

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance on bloomberg tv and radio. this week alone up 33 basis points. tom: this week alone, history made. i think you will see over the weekend, how do we go back. maybe we go back to 1870. the summation of four weeks of moving his history making. jonathan: need to look at the curve as well how things involved -- evolved. lisa: that to me is what i looked at, the fact that it moved to the opposite direction of what people thought. the long and would move down to the front and the front and would move down to the long end and you would get a flat or lower curve. yesterday fed jay powell said it does not seem to be inflation, it is something else. it doesn't seem like we are overly restrictive. there seems to be a fear in his not only in their control. that is sort of a people are pricing into the market but still there's a chance of another rate hike. i do not know whether that matters. you saw the yields go higher after that speech. jonat

jonathan: the job is not done yet, christine lagarde speaking in marrakech at the annual meeting with tom keene and a huge audience and massive participation. there is always a surprise. everything is set up and there were 47 people helping the. it is like an entourage of phd's that no more than me. they all come in and say what they want to do which has nothing to do with the panel. we get out and i open and the managing -- and i open up and they meant -- and i go to lagarde and it felt like an ecb press conference. i start in on economic growth and she says no, monetary policy. i am sitting there asking how much trouble she would get herself in. jonathan: harvey talked about the bond market. we were there in the spring, that frustrated me. they seem to be having conversations divorced from what is taking waste in the world and front and center is bond market volatility in the treasury rk. it was touched on briefly and we are from the starting to price some fiscal premium, risk premium in places like treasuries. tom: for the world economic outlook, you say they are financing in investment. to

alix: that was ecb president christine lagarde speaking with tom keene.is global head of fx strategy. elsa, this is the first time i've seen you in person. thank you for joining us. so do central bankers really have a good handle now on this massive geopolitical risk? elsa: well christine lagarde outlined those challenges really well. it's the lagged effect of potential wage rises, the uncertainty around how responding to what was an unprecedented pandemic and you layer in that geopolitical risk. the impact is that nobody really knows what the base case scenario should be for next year. it's a very wide dispersion of use. guy: it seems tough at the moment, elsa, to take any position against the dollar. is that just the straightforward trade here? elsa: it was obvious when the market was short and people had gotten ahead of themselves in looking for the dollar to roll over on the back the fed being done with it. and yet here we are today and it looks very different. but at the moment, the positioning has built up quite a bit in the last several weeks. and

will bite. >> the market only now starting to price it in. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene. in 14 minutes, once again we are data-dependent with bonds priced lower. jonathan: manufacturing better than expected, job openings higher than expected. adp report just around the corner. tom: all the stuff michael mckee talks about, he will be with us. another guy is expected to show up. secretary yellen yesterday was very chairman like. jonathan: hiring for longer is not a given. given the bank drop, talk about the context. those con -- commas are coming when you have a bond market selling author aggressively you have a real concern that this is not just about the federal reserve, not just about economic data, not just about japan or china and the difficulties they have got but also about the dysfunction in washington and the budget deficit and the inability to get a hold of it. tom: and within the financial valet, it is about yields. we have tried to give you the price analysis. lisa abramowicz is the expert. what is the price analysis of the two movable parts of the spread this

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. >> is the bond markets world we just are living with it. this is bloomberg surveillance. good morning. john and tom have ditched me. manus cranny is with us, which is a good thing as we try to understand how we can get past a bond market that will not let anything else matter. i want to talk about earnings and geopolitics and everything else. instead, we are talking about a 19 basis point swing in the 10 year. all of a sudden, crashing down. manus: >> to bill ackman and bill gross have that much sway in the bond market? the bottom line is, that huge amount of volatility, the one thing that surprised me was why did the equity market it more of a bid on the back of a swaggering move? was it reappraisal a bond risk? lisa: probably just ptsd. >> last month and a half as chest impacted the equity market from the bond market. hi they to stocks, low bit is tosca manoj offensive strategy when the bond market is moving this quickly because the defense stocks tend to be more bond sensitive and debt ridden. th

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramovitz. tom: i saw him on a cruise, what a great turnout on the cruise. catherine greifeld joins us this morning. she is here and she will explain white piquant is popping -- by bitcoin is popping -- she will explain why bitcoin is popping. yields are up. things are little better but i walk in and i look at the bloomberg terminal, 8.04% on the bankrate 30 year mortgage and we are subtly -- solidly in a percent -- 8%. lisa: we have seen this incredible fluctuation, 20 basis points in a couple days in the long end of the yield curve and people say volatility cannot continue or can it. they are forgetting the levels. it causes a different reality for people financing the nuts and bolts of their businesses and their lives. tom: economic analysis with bramo. the media wants to go, they going to die. microsoft was like a charm. if -- this is exactly what we were to see, microsoft is on target. lisa: the fact that you had two but he lives comprising 10% of the entire s&p index coming out and you had

this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. lisa: we have a correction in the nasdaq. good morning from new york. this is bloomberg surveillance. tom and john are both on a cruise together. i am joined by manus cranny and damien suss our. manus: you will get a lot of guys side notes. where do you want to go for defense? let's go long with amazon. >> i think the street has 65 vibrating and one hold rating. lisa: i was looking at some of the flows and there was the biggest inflow into tech stocks for the past week in the past eight weeks. it feels like i the dip underpinning everything. maybe this excuse to sell everything yes it's geopolitical . manus: when we came in here on monday morning we ratcheted by 15 basis points. look at the shorts on treasuries and they are building again with open interest bond treasuries. they are rebuilding short positions. damien: rate differentials are the name of the game. we have a lot of central banks meetings coming up, we have malaysia, norway. in emerging markets they've been in front of the

manus cranny and tom keene this morning. interviews. we will look at mike worth of chevron along with john has of hess and then also delta. alix steel driving those conversations this morning. this is a great honor. just to give you a window into the five lives of tom keene. long ago and far away, army rotc reserve officer training, i was a winner of the daughters of the american revolution award. this is ancient history. it is just after the civil war. it is the kind of thing you do in college if you don't go to the military academy. someone who had a sterling career serving the nation was frank mckenzie. executive director of global national security institute and a former central command commander. he joins us this morning at the citadel. i speak here of natalie stewart, the marine corps winner this year at the citadel of the august award. what was it like coming out of an rotc your first day serving the nation? >> i was excited. i had the good fortune to actually go to okinawa. it was an exciting time, we deployed to kor

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro.diplomatic effort upended by a single blast at a hospital in gaza. israel blaming the attack on e islamic jihad group. america wants investigation. >> outreach by the explosion at the hospital in gaza yesterday. based on what i have seen, it is it appears as though it was done by the other team, not you. but there's a lot of people out there not sure. left overcome a lot of things. jonathan: the stakes of the trip cannot be hired. how to prevent discomfort from engulfing the region and ensure civilians stay out of harm's way. our team coverage starts right now with bloomberg oliver crook. good morning. oliver: you just put it in very good terms in terms of the stakes here but also the difficulty for president biden who told us he is going to come to that region, come to israel, come to jordan and now the entire trip has been thrown into the air. what we knew originally was this blast at the hospital is legally changed -- president biden can achieve to give his support to israel as all

we will never fail to have their back. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with jonathan ferro, tom keenerning. bloomberg surveillance with jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and tom keene. this from dr. bremmer -- "the israeli defense minister, i ordered a full siege on the gaza strip, no food, no gas, everything is closed." that upon 2 million people. jonathan: we are focused on two things, the potential for escalation abroad and the dysfunction at home. on the escalation abroad, the potential that iran will be implicated by israel, and the dysfunction at home. we have no speaker at home, no ambassador to israel, egypt, lebanon, whether this will give congress a sense of urgency to address these things. tom: annmarie hordern joins us here in a moment. these are normal times. we can have our domestic games, but the domestic games slip away given a legitimate war. jonathan: almost immediately based on the reporting we have had this morning, the senate foreign relations committee will soon notify members that jack lew's confirmation hearing is scheduled. already you see some action. jonathan:

lisa: that is not tom keene. guy: not sure tom could fit on a camel.christine lagarde later this week. i would love an international perspective on treasuries. lisa: when the u.s. treasury market is flipping and flopping, the rest of the world moves along in tandem. more fraud for europe right now than the u.s., especially with people saying that the u.s. strength is unique in how persistent it is. jonathan: the euro-dollar right around 1.06. 1.0598. under surveillance this morning, the death toll from the israel- hamas war rising above 2000. israelis responding to missile strikes in lebanon. leaders in talks to form an emergency government. do those security challenges go beyond the gaza strip? we have to be concerned about what is happening in the north with lebanon and hezbollah. lisa: there have been a number of reports about rockets being fired. it has not moved into the escalation phase. interesting anytime heading into this where there was unprecedented debate and clashing within israel itself about what kind of rule they want. a lot of protest

we have a clear inflection in a direction of the economy. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keeneasa marrano its. lisa: welcome back. tom and john are still on their cruise. the thought of alaska was so great that they were going to check it out in room together. and i bribed others to stay with her so much longer which is beautiful for all of us damian sassower or an gina martin adams ahead of the busy week. all i can think about is we don't know how the market will respond to data point. we have no sense of what will happen. this will drive the narrative by the end of today. gina: the market is nervous about what is going on in the bond market that all these central-bank occurrences this week will be paramount in terms of importance. but under that surface you have earnings announcements coming, apple inc. one of the biggest stocks in the world, and it is important to consider. it's earnings is at 2% much them -- much better been asked -- than anticipated decline. there are things that could drive a degree of optimism after a rough three months for stocks. damian: we talked a lo

announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. . markets on the move. it is about price down, yield up. take your weapon. i'm going to go with the 10 year yield, a benchmark yield. jonathan: same story, different price. new cycle high on a 30 year. the equity market break down just a touch. is it about the data? data was good yesterday. better than many people expected. is it about yield curve control out of japan? is it about the debt issuance out of the united states and washington, d.c., or is it about china? take your pick. you said pick your weapon. pick your poison. tom: i know i'm never right. i can think about it as hard as i want and i never get right. you don't see the problem coming but we've not had the catharsis yet. jonathan: that's for sure, 11 weeks of the. about to be week 12 if this is anything to go by. negative again. at least getting closer and closer to that line in the sand. lisa: it's almost like people are just testing to see you is going to step over the line. there do seem to be these breaking points, the

it is not enough. >> we have entered a complicated phase. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keenen, lisa and tom on television. it is the fixed income report. 12:00 noon. here are the numbers, this is like bingo or whatever. five point 25, 4 .98 and those of the winning numbers today. jonathan: or losing. the two year, 10 year and 30 year cycle highs. let us talk 3.30, 3.3% after the big intention and seemingly the cycle is over. here we are at 170 basis points higher and still climbing. the question for the chairman later on is is that move a substitute for further action from the federal reserve if this economic data keep surprising to the upside. cpi and retail sales are coming in hotter than expected. tom: the bowtie word is unanchored, but in the last 48 hours people are worried. there is an angst, yes because of what we have seen in the eastern mediterranean. separate from that there is a new bond angst. jonathan: i do not hear that on the federal reserve yet but i hear that we can wait. the governor use that word yesterday and i think we are waiting for two things. i do not

recession, you get inflation coming right back. >> this surveillance bloomberg surveillance with tom keeneand lisa abramowicz -- jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: christ down -- price down yield up. romaine: --jon: 10 year at the four --460s. congressman frank chill talking about the recklessness in washington and the contribution we have seen from that to this in the bond market. tom: i don't disagree with that. what is front and eight -- and center, this is deceptive. forget about the spikes up, if you look at the central price of a given bar chart, right now, we are at new high levels for yield on a daily basis. jon: it has been amazing to see, last quarter, 70 basis point move. one person publishing moments ago, here is his number, 242,000 new drops -- jobs. that is why he is looking for another move from the fed next month. tom: there are other views that cut the other way, the narratives that are out there we have to sort out and i have october 6, october 12, october 13 two a november first meeting. i wonder what jay powell will go as halloween. ambiguity. november 1 is the fe

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. your equity market is positive poised potentially for of for the week of losses. in the bond market, the epicenter of the headlines. 170 is the estimate on wall street. tom: we will conflate a lot of economic talk. my major message is that the market still matter. it will be fascinating to see the reaction to the jobs report. is a good news or bad news later this morning? tom: you know how much i hate that. i get confused by it. employment is a big deal. 170 is a generous number and the unemployment rate matters. jonathan: lisa, adp was bad news. lisa: if you look at the revisions they have revised upwards. their expectation is that the whisper number is 170,000. at what point is not good news but not too bad that means economic armageddon. they are waiting for something to break the cycle. even though we have some common markets but they are still at 4.7%. jonathan: there is a question in a program that was what is nobody asking you about? 2024. how bizarre is that? it's weird that we

. >> this is bloomberg "surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. te markets on the move. -- good morning. markets on the move. don't infer. katie griefeld is in for jonathan ferro. many narratives. every think blown aside including ecb meeting by resurgent violence. -- yields. lisa: how much do they expect this to do the work for them? how much do they lean against the idea this is the last rate hike -- they would not raise rates further from here. people are wondering who's going to buy all this debt. governments are facing rates like this. tom: my price analysis. we go to a analysis. that does not work. the bids slips away for the japanese yen. lisa: is a reason why i think the reaction to the tech earnings have been the most interesting aspect. they're not all the same. it is a motley group of companies but there have been companies reported good earnings and have gotten beaten of. is there a message in that it is highlighting this feeling of concern underpinning everything? katie: the question becomes where is your haven because whether or not y

shery: imf managing director kristalina georgieva speaking to bloomberg's tom keene on the sidelinesthe imf world bank annual meetings in marrakech. we have more to come on "daybreak." this is bloomberg. ♪ that first time you take a step back. i made that. with your very own online store. i sold that. and you can manage it all in one place. i built this. and it was easy, with a partner that puts you first. godaddy. shery: here watching "daybreak: australia." here are the latest corporate stories we are watching. south korea's financial watchdog is proposing record finds two global investment banks for engaging in a negative shortselling, that is a move considered illegal in the country. the watchdog says the hong kong-based units of the best conducted naked short sales in several securities between 2021 and 2022. the proposed fines have yet to be analyzed, in the banks' identities will be disclosed in future proceedings. citigroup says banking facilities have resumed after friday. and outage was caused by a technical issue in the data center eased by the lenders. the providers say at

notoriously bad at pricing geopolitical risk. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with jonathan ferro, tom keeneoff the radar on a thursday as the news flow is extraordinary. james kanter is expected to be with us on resurgent energy markets. we continue with our coverage of a war in israel. the israeli ambassador to the united kingdom is to be with us in this hour. benjamin netanyahu'mosts recent quote, they will respond -- benjamin netanyahu's most recent quote, they will respond with violence. the question we have asked is whether we will see a full ground invasion based on the preparation over the next 24 hours. tom: i wonder if it will shift the markets -- may be an invasion from water is suggested as well. i'm not saying that as a fact. it is a movable feast here. jonathan: this monster rally you are seeing in the bond market for treasuries has two reasons behind it. we were closed yesterday, so we get them today. i want to go back to lisa's conversation with mary daly, the first fed official to come out of the gate and suggest that the moves we see in the bond market may take away some of

jon ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene.el. that supersedes all that we have talked about in economics. jonathan: uncomfortable tension. still seemingly on the brink of some kind of ground invasion into gaza. i put the emphasis on "some kind." we are talking about operations, a subtle shift. tom: what i noticed was that the idea of the military separate from the politicians. president biden, how the president will address the israeli military. tom: potentially involved, no confirmation. certainly not combat troops. stepping away from the geopolitics, one, bank earnings, two, economic data, three. and the response to it. and we have the economic data in about 28 minutes. tom: we underplayed it. we have been wrong. lisa: we have seen resilience. what is underpinning some of the rise on the long end despite some of the geopolitics we've seen? it is because of the unexpected strength that has continued. if we see that in retail sales, how vulnerable is this market? ironically not to tensions and tragedies but to upside surprises

he is dead keen to get tom cruise back on board. they're talking.ne i'm asad ahmad. since the covid pandemic, the government and leaders at city hall have encouraged us to walk where possible to take pressure off roads and public transport. but a report, published this morning, says walking is being made difficult in london because of the "chronic clutter" on pavements. e—bikes, and advertising boards are examples given by the centre for london think—tank, which says it's making the capital a worse place to live, travel and work. plans have been approved to increase passenger capacity at luton airport. the government has approved a decision made by luton borough council to allow an extra million people to use the airport. it takes capacity to 19 million passengers a year. but some local groups feel the ongoing expansion will cause local pollution and increased carbon emissions. former one direction member liam payne has been banned from driving for six months, after he admitted speeding on the westway flyover in shepherd's bush. he was spotted trave