tom mackenzie has been gauging the mood tom: i am not sure. exchange of the french economy is ok. companiesabout 1500 headquartered here. people have been coming to work as normal. it is quite noticeable that there is no sign of any ramped up the security here at all. >> there was no additional security. when it close by happened. the news came up on my phone and we were about to go out so we were very shocked by the events. >> i work from my home. anna: tom mackenzie there, gauging reaction of those in the financial community in paris. let's get back to kristin scholz at citigroup. let's talk a little bit about german politics. some think you follow very closely. angela merkel's popularity has been on the decline ever since the refugee crisis again. -- crisis began. how does she handle this? sentimentes, public in germany has shifted. act in the summer, when merkel had this press conference and then opened the borders immigrants,for the a large majority of germans were happy and even proud of that. as of the numbers grow, we are 200,000 in flux and people are getting concerned. p

this get to tom mackenzie who is in istanbul. tom, give us the details.anus, there was widespread shock and surprise last night when these results came through it they were gathering -- they were gatherings of happy ak party members. kurds are unhappy at these results. beatingarty found it the forecast by the polls. they won that majority. they wanted easily. they even pullback votes from the hdp party. they were forced into coalition talks. -- it is ardogan gamble that spain off. since june, we have seen tensions and violence. we have seen the truce breakdown, leading to a number of deaths. we have seen bombings blamed on the islamic state. one bombing in anchorage -- and -- a blackoutg for pro-kurdish parties. werek party and earn a one .- and urdu want the question is what is next? what does it mean for the constitution. it was key. president are to want wanted to change the constitution to give him a zynga style power. willie still push ahead echo the economic challenges, the lyrical challenges and the divisions that need to be healed. the investors w

let's get to bloomberg's tom mackenzie live in istanbul.ts have been digesting the results. what are the implications of this surprise win for erdogan's party? tom: it was a surprise win. the man who has loomed so large over the turkish political scene for the last 13 years did it again. he won the presidency last year. his name wasn't on the ballot yesterday, but no bones about it, he loomed large. his ak party coming up with that 49% win as you said, upping their vote count by around 4.5 million from june. those elections saw the ak party lose their majority, forced coalition talks that then broke down. erdogan took yesterday's election. that has paid off. we've seen the tension in the last few months in turkey. that has got to be addressed. the cease-fire between the government and the kurdish militants has broken down. that was engineered just a few years ago by the ak party. their critics say they've been consequential in breaking that truce. then you've got attacked by what many say are islamic state bombers that have killed over 130

tom mackenzie, bloomberg news, istanbul.x: joining us is william jackson, he is with capital economics and he joins us from london. iq so much for joining us, william. is aight that this goldilocks outcome for investors because of erdogan's victory. will that be the same in a few months? party -- we don't have the political uncertainty. the victory has not been large enough so the ak party can change the constitution. there are plans to change the constitution and strengthen the presidency. if we look beyond the next few see sort of, realization that actually economic problems in turkey have been apparent, even before the round of elections tense june. inflation is higher and rising. there are concerns about central bank independence, too. unless we see improvement on those fronts, some of these recent gains may not be enough. we have a fed rate increase on the horizon, how do they continue to make it sustainable? they're looking for solutions to help restore credibility. there are some moves we should be looking out for. to

yvonne: tom mackenzie reporting from a stumble.to our top story, the slowdown in the world's second-largest economy may not be over yet. official figures show the manufacturing sector contracted for the third month in a row. for more, we are joined i our china economist, john jew. economist-- our china . his growth going to be a concerned. this has always been considered a bright spot to offset manufacturing. see aare starting to slowdown. that has been in the data for a while now. this does include construction and utilities as well. continue to see export orders show decline. chinese exporters remain challenged until the end of the year? what is your forecast? story is global growth that trade has been contracting. that is a trend not just for china, but for exporters around the world. yvonne: it is still a pretty mixed picture. we see copper prices rising. the equity markets are often percent this month. but then you see aluminum growing substantially. there is doubt on domestic demand. what kind of picture does this paint to yo

bloomberg's tom mackenzie discovered on a recent trip to the country, the measures have also caused distortion's a new dawn for iceland, a country moving to rest itself from capital controls that have been credited with saving it from financial meltdown. to've taken small steps start investing outside of the economy. we need to lift also the domestic economy. combine right now, the country's economy is growing. it has been helped by a booming tourism industry, with more than one million visitors expected in 2015. the fishery sector is also doing well, benefiting from a weaker krone and robust european demand. against that backdrop, the government is taking steps to in the restrictions, to free up the economy and reopen the doors to foreign investment. >> i would like to see this happen much earlier, but it is a really a complicated issue. tom: capital controls which stopped capital outflows and helped stabilize the currency have created distortions. investment funds have pumped their money -- out,capital>> soon, they will e maybe we are not going to be able to own our own apartment. that is go

tom mackenzie is inestimable with more. s this a temporary upshot i or is there a fundamental change in turkish markets? tom: in terms of turkish markets, the valley points to strengthening lira up more than its highest level. i think that was 2008. you can see the stock markets in istanbul of around 5%. ons are also up and yields are down. today, butpositive the investors that we have been speaking to throughout the morning have said to hold your fire. this is not over yet. this is a bleaker picture than markets are represented today. certainly the economic and political and social challenges that face the new government are enormous. this party has won a significant and clear outright majority, smashing those poll predictions. they got around 49% of the vote and increase their vote share by around 4.5 million. i do not know if you can see the bridge behind me, but crosses the river and connects the european continent and the asian continent. people said that a vote yesterday signals and other from europekey away and secula

between the army and the senate, tom worked for mackenzie and company and served one term in the u.s. house of representatives. tom and his wife anna had their first child this past spring, congratulations, senator. please join me in welcoming senator tom cotton. [ applause ] >> thank you. thank you very much for letting me participate today. ambassador miller, thank you for the very kind introduction. it's a privilege as always to speak at the heritage foundation, especially before this distinguished panel. rachel glesz her and romina boccia, our work has been instrument tall. both staffers and legislators rely on your analyses. and when the disability reform does come, your great work will have advanced the work significantly. and kim hildred, your work was a critical element to my own legislation. we know the challenges of the social security disability insurance program. it's grown far too large, well past the rate of demographics. there's a lack of program integrity and those who should recover never leave the program. but i want to highlight today two other specific concerns wit

mackenzie whotom is in istanbul. they're not dead in and u.k., they are dead elsewhere. tomn't count how many elections have covered. if they got it very badly wrong here in turkey. they were shockingly surprised across the board last night when the results started come through when -- showing the ak party was winning. they were forced into coalition talks which broke down. it was seen as a gamble. it was a gamble that paid off. increased their votes share by about 4.5 million votes. they changed the constitution and a push for a referendum. they might try an engineer that. there are big challenges facing the current government on the economic and securities front. we have seen five months of tensions in turkey. interest breakdown between kurdish militants, isis forming's and you've got the question of the economy. on those questions, i am glad i am joined by hacking pasha. markets inng the turkey rally on the back of this election result. is this indicating a positive sentiment? is this a short-lived relief rally? >> weep think this is a short-lived rally. turkey has a coup

between the army and the senate, tom worked for mackenzie and company and served one term in the u.s.s, senator. please join me in welcoming senator tom cotton. [ applause ] >> thank you. thank you very much for letting me participate today. ambassador miller, thank you for the very kind introduction. it's a privilege as always to speak at the heritage foundation, especially before this distinguished panel. rachel greszler and romina boccia, our work has been instrumental. both staffers and legislators rely on your analyses. and when the disability reform does come, your great work will have advanced the work significantly. and kim hildred, your work was a critical element to my own legislation. we know the challenges of the social security disability insurance program. it's grown far too large, well past the rate of demographics. there's a lack of program integrity and those who should recover never leave the program. but i want to highlight today two other specific concerns with social security disability. first, the effect of social security disability on communities, what might be