chief helgesion berger speaking to tom mackenzie and tom is with us at the ubs china conference.ually this time by huang yiping, the deputy dean of peking university's national school of development, a former advisor to the pboc as well. we're very pleased to have with us huang yiping. let's start than with your outlook for china's economy for 2021. we heard the imf saying they have a forecast of a percent growth this year. is that a realistic outcome for china's economy this year? >> i very much agree with imf. on't make ai d forecast anymore but if i put down a number it would be somewhere between 8% to 9%. the economy had a read -- a v- shaped economy and at the moment -- the trend range, which is 5% to 6%. so, this year we are going to see between 8% and 9% but a realistic number is along the trend of 5% to 6%. around trend level, and that recovery from covid-19, the economic recovery we are seeing in china, there are number of economists saying that acceleration is going to see china becoming the world's largest economy more quickly than many had expected. what are the globa

our markets coanchor in beijing, tom mackenzie.his time of year, you see people starting to make that big journey across the country. how has it been different? what are you seeing that makes this year's lunar new year different, and also getting issues for the economic recovery as well? reporter: absolutely. normally, you would accept -- expect 1.7 billion trips this time of year as hundreds of millions travel across the country. the government says that likely to fall 40% but some indicators say it could fall even further. we have travel over the weekend, 17 million trips or thereabouts saturday. that was down about 75% from the previous year and 2019 levels. the reason for that is the government has put in restrictions on travel and movement of people because they are concerned about a resurgence in covid-19 cases. that is putting a squeeze on consumption, everything from entertainment to leisure to tourism, and that is impacting the data and is likely to impact them in the days ahead. we don't need nonmanufacturing pmi over the

tom mackenzie is with us. am joined by christine peng who is china.eater head of we will start with that question. haidi just posed the question about covid-19 infections in china. y global comparison. there is a locked in hubei. some pressure from local governments to restrict people's movements ahead of and during the new year's festival. a lot shopping is done. to what extent could this be a dampener on china's consumer sector? >> we have seen such resurgence of new cases across different regions throughout the country in 2020. the chinese government has dealt with it pretty well. goingicky thing is we are into chinese spring festival, which is the heavy season. the restaurant sector. i think the lockdown could potentially impact the consumption for the chinese new year. expect china'su consumer to get back to pre-pandemic levels? national look at the statistic data, the china retail sales growth is already back to normal in september of 2020. i would say consumption is already back to a pre-pandemic levels

let's go back to the greater conference in shanghai and tom mackenzie. m: we can get analysis and insight on all of those key subject with our next guest. she joins us from the ubs greater china conference, thank you for your time. you have said that the third quarter results for chinese banks marked a turning point. why? guest: we have seen chinese banks profit growth in particular, have reversed. in the first half, the national banks averaged about 29% profit decline. in the third quarter, the define has slowed down to -10%. in the fourth quarter we are expecting positive profit growth for chinese banks. that is a reflection of the recovery of chinese economy. 2021, we think the banks report profit growth rather than suffer decline. tom: how much, how much upside? the large banks probably in the single digits. for the good national banks, or regional banks, it could be double digits, 10% to 20%. tom: how much is that a reaction to the expectation that the pboc will be less easy and its monetary response this year? sides,it's driven by two mostly due to

markets coanchor tom mackenzie in beijing.till to come, but quite is surging into the new year, reaching $34,000 in weekend trade. sustainability, next. prime minister's yoshihide suga saying he wants to pass measures soon to fight the pathogen in japan, and saying it is hard to revive travel incentives if emergency is declared and a stronger message is needed in tokyo. officials in tokyo asked for a state of emergency to be instituted in the country. it is something that the prime minister is considering, but has not done so far. all of this coming from his news conference wanna lose weight and be healthier? it's time for aerotrainer. a more effective total body fitness solution. (announcer) aerotrainer's ergodynamic design and four patented air chambers create maximum muscle activation for better results in less time. it allows for over 20 exercises. do the aerotrainer super crunch, push ups, aero squat. it inflates in 30 seconds. aerotrainer is tested to support over 500 pounds. lose weight, look great, and be healthy. go t

tom mackenzie has the details from beijing. a lot to discuss this year. will top the agenda at the virtual summit? tom: this will be the second time a chinese leader has addressed the world economic forum. this year in virtual form. it was preceded by a speech by president xi jinping in 2017 when he was the first chinese leader to address world economic forum when he traveled to davos and pushed back against trade wars. that shortly after the surprise election of than president donald trump. president xi jinping will give a speech again. this time, we are looking for anything he is going to say about the new administration in the united states. anything he hints at in terms of the relationship between beijing and washington that continues to be plagued by multiple areas of tension. he may also address the relative success china has had in tackling covid-19 even as there are new clusters in beijing. also attempts by china to push its own vaccine not just domestically but overseas as well. there will be a sense and a focus on anything president xi jinping s

anchor: tom mackenzie with a preview of those numbers in beijing. we will get plenty more analysis ahead. we will be speaking to several guests on daybreak asia. let's take a look at the first word headlines. global coronavirus cases are approaching 95 million with deaths now topping 2 million. as they'll has granted approval of the emergency use of the astrazeneca vaccine. the u.k. government says it is considering all possible measures to rein in covid after recording 1200 related deaths five days in a row. singapore will require all inbound travelers to take a test upon arrival. and citizens and permanent residents returning from the u.k. and south africa will be told to self isolate at home for seven days in addition to the 14 days in a government facility. india has launched the world's biggest vaccination efforts. an estimated one at a 65,000 people were given a vaccine on the first day of the weekend as part of an and precious -- ambitious plan. moody warned people should take a shot and ignore anti-vaccine propaganda. alexi navalny has been

let's get the latest from tom mackenzie in beijing. an invented -- and inevitability they will be next? tom: it is not inevitable but certainly the view of bloomberg intelligence that it is very likely china's oil majors may be seented because they are as having links to the chinese military. to recap, last week you have the new york stock exchange delisting the three top telecom companies. that's on the back of the executive order signed by president trump banning the u.s. investment in companies u.s. has links to the chinese military. now we are at the point where we are looking ahead to see which other companies could be delisted. as you said, bloomberg -- saidence and sinopec sinopec could be on the list. china says it will take necessary measures to protect its companies and calls this action from the u.s. a groundless and reckless. we've had lines from china mobile saying they have not received notification from the new york stock exchange about the delisting. they said they have complied straightly with all of the laws and they w

let's bring in tom mackenzie, what are the core elements of the strategy?r: >> this was a strategy signed off by president trump in february of 2018 called the united egypt framework for the india pacific and the key parts are the assumption that china, this is ascension from the u.s. and that china will undermine u.s. alliances in the indo pacific region, that we will continue -- it will continue to malign trade practices and dominate key practices like artificial intelligence. the response is to bolster its ties with india as you said, to help strengthen the indian military and to help move india forward as an economy, as a nation with close ties to the united states. there is also a focus on taiwan, the u.s. will continue to help taiwan build out what it calls a -- an asymmetric military capability because they are concerned, and they assume that china will become increasingly assertive and muscular in trying to compel the reunification of taiwan with the mainland. on north korea as well there is an all-out policy to use every tool at america's disposal

liang wannian speaking exclusively with our coanchor tom mackenzie. to bring you live pictures of d.c., where it the d.c. mayor bowser is saying she is extending the public emergency for 15 days. that of course follows the riots we saw earlier today. relative calm has returned to d.c., the capital now declared secure several hours after a mob of president trump supporters stormed the building. publicowser saying the emergency will be extended for 15 days. she says that will happen for the next 15 days. guestto come, our next sees a revival for india's auto sector in the year had. we discussed -- in the year ahead. we will discuss. plenty more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪ is bloomberg. ♪ time for our focus on vehicleth the country's registrations in november falling almost 20% from year ago. that, as -- the auto industry employs million, but it had been going through its worst period even before the pandemic. let's discuss with vinkesh gulati. thank you very much for joining us. things were bad before the pandemic, of course they went from bad to wors

let's bring in tom mackenzie.d the aid calling it cynical. >> the timing was certainly intriguing to a lot of people watching this as joe biden was giving his speech. these sanctions were slapped on his predecessors. we spoke to the former ambassador. we spoke to the chairman of commerce in beijing. both of them said do not read too much into it. what they did do was sanction 28 officials including mike pompeo, including the former u.s. ambassador entered nations, including as well the former nsa head under the trump administration. they have been sanctioned. beijing said the reason they were sanctioned is because of their roles in undermining the u.s.-china relationship shared they will not be able to travel to china or hong kong or macao or do business with china. trump, his family were not included. i think a trump sherrick -- ivanka trump shares a trouble -- a couple of trademarks. this was a passing shot at former trump administration officials. rishaad: what about the inauguration itself? it does mark arguab

liang wannian, speaking exclusively to tom mackenzie there.he biggest global vaccination campaign in history is underway with about 16 million shots administered so far and china has given more than one quarter of those. to discuss the chinese vaccine rollout and its handling of the pandemic, we are joined by the rand corporation senior policy -- ite of the points made, is fair for western nations, the likes of australia, for example, to be heavily critical of the way that china has handled the virus outbreak and continued to handle it, given we have seen the world health organization investigators having a series of troubles of even being able to access the country for their investigations? that it's in a way unfortunate that we have seen issue beic health politicized. geopolitics and ation of the problem has made countries insecure in that -- that in no way can help scientists to find .he source of the pandemic in that, i feel it is unfortunate. ways -- political system of china actually help it when it comes to things like rolling out a vac

haslinda: tom mackenzie speaking with the cfo of ehang.u back administrative part of malaysia were the prime minister is making an address explaining why the state of emergency was called within the last one hour. he says covid-19 is threatening the economy. that is the basis of the state of emergency. it gives the government powers to tackle the pandemic. this ised the people not a military coup, there is no curfew, and the government will continue to function. untilergency can last august. it depends how well malaysia contains the spread of the virus. emergencies enact according to the need of the company -- of the country. this after the prime minister called for a snap election as soon as march. something he has been wanting to delay. we have stocks down. malaysian ringgit also lower. ♪ haslinda: the rank it weakening after the king declared a virus state of emergency possibly until august. we will get more from our markets reporters slightly later. we are showing live pictures of the prime minister explaining why that state of emergen

tom mackenzie joins us from beijing. we hark back to the famous speech the president gave at davos. lot has changed since then. what are we expecting? tom: there will be a focus on anything that president xi jinping says about how china will look to engage with the new biden administration. state media have suggested areas where the two could cooperate include things like climate change but also tackling the covid-19 pandemic. we will be listening for any hints or nods from xi jinping toward his u.s. counterpart. we mentioned 2017. that was the first time a chinese leader had addressed the world economic forum. it was shortly after the election of president trump. president xi jinping pushed back against trump's america first policies and pushed back against the idea of protectionism and trade wars and he tried to position china as a proponent of globalization and multilateralism. we make it echoes of the same kind of thing this year. we'll be looking to see any overtures from the chinese president china has been relatively successful in containing the pandemic. it is trying to push

. ♪ kathleen: chinese oil majors may de next in line for th u.s.tnting by the tom mackenzie joins usrom beijing. is this inevitable? way and that that is the analysis of our in-house team. i will give you some background. in november, the trump administration signed off on an executive order that band u.s. investments in companies linked to the chinese military or the chinese security apparatus which ting those nyse delis chinese telecom companies including china mobile, china china unicorns. nysewere delisted from the because of that executive order. of bloombergw intelligence that the energy players could be next. the biggest offshore oil and gas producer is on the list. -- you also the have petrochina and sinopec as well facing a delisitng. delisting. china has said they will do everything in their power to support and protect the rights of chinese companies. the focus should dow shift is some of these energy giants in china. closer to theet and not duration there any signs that we could see a falling in -- a thawing in china-u.s. relations? tom: the door is open. we heard that fr

haidi: tom mackenzie in beijing. is a full week of economic data coming up for us here in asia. we will see trade data from south korea later on monday. from australia on thursday, central-bank and focus. australia, thailand and india holding their first policy meetings. sarah hunter with us. let's start with australia. it is an interesting balancing act as we continue to watch the labor market recovery and starting to see signs of heating when it comes to the property market as well as benefiting from the chinese economic recovery. >> that's right. those are certainly some positives coming through the economy right now, a lot of stimulus getting into the property market and from the rba, but also the federal and state governments as well in the former homebuilder scheme encouraging residential construction. . the property market is definitely a positive, but we also still have parts of the economy that are struggling. travel, tourism, hospitality in general. hopefully it is not a big derailment of activity but it do

tom mackenzie spoke with the ubs chairman about how that impacts his view of the economic recovery. >ave actually downgraded -- oure chain projection short-term projection for the first quarter and with a less court of last year we will see a europe,ip recession in where it will be negative, and where there is carryover into the first quarter of this year, i think as it gets rolled out there is light at the end of the tunnel for the second half of this year with a strong rebound of the global economy and their way there might be through a double-dip recession, so that is a short-term headwind. that inform your ?iews about equity evaluations alex: in the short-term, no central bank will change their program. that will provide -- we expect a strong rebound in the year 2021, at the end of 2021, and carrying on into 2022. tom: you touched on the ecb. bundesbank -- they have extended purchases through march of 2022. current policy measures are extraordinary first ordinary times. as we come into more normal times, i would expect monetary policy to normalize. i doubt that the central banks w

axel weber of ubs with tom mackenzie. obviously representing union bank of switzerland.ight now representing bloomberg joins us as guest we talk about any number of themes of european banking. let me start with something that maybe axel weber alluded to there with his struggles. is this the year where we see consolidation in european banking? -- good morning, tom. i think we are seeing some consolidation kick started, another wave of it kick started again last year with a pandemic. markets seen that with mainly in spain and italy. there is some hope that at some point we will also bring another wave of consolidation that will be more cross-border to create real european banks that operate across multiple markets. the predominant expectation is that it is a little too early for that to happen because the constraint across that cross-border consolidation still exists, mainly regular asian and oversight making it difficult for banks to move around capital across borders still to this day. add to that the fresh wave of the pandemic and a hit on the economy, that creates more

nio -- shery: nio ceo speaking to tom mackenzie.g interviews ahead, from the ubs greater china conference in shanghai. the chairman joins exclusively along with others. plus, we will hear from a peking university professor as well. here is a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. tesla is reported to be looking for a design chief to come up with talk -- with cars tailored specifically for the chinese market. they are looking at candidates familiar with mainland tastes as part of a plan to launch in shanghai or beijing. tesla dominates the electric car market in china and the model three in shanghai. three top american banks are to remove some hong kong listed products because of u.s. sanctions on the city. goldman sachs, morgan stanley and jp morgan say about 500 structured products will be affected, but hks insist the market will not be affected. the exchanges says -- exchange says it is working on an orderly delisting but will not have a material impact. -- hastes has joined teamed up with blackstone on signature avia

i haven't spoken to him in a while, tom mackenzie. great work.at you do very closely from china. i know it's been relentless. do we actually know how much this will cement the relationship that the biden administration has to have with china when they take over in six days? tom: well, it's certainly significant. fully new knew from our reporting, from sources out of ashe what we knew from our -- what we knew from our reporting, from sources out of d.c., they flagged it weeks ago. what we didn't know was the extent to which the u.s. would be targeting jewel in the crown companies for china. and xiaomi was certainly one a surprise -- certainly a surprise. it's one of the biggest smartphone makers. it outbid apple. it has a huge footprint in terms of sales. the fact that it's been put on the defense department list of companies u.s. says has ties to the military is significant. xiaomi has said it is not a military company. it has no ties to chinese military. but there's a debate, -- debate among investors about what that means. commack is china's ho

qian, ubsene securities chairman speaking with tom mackenzie with real people in a real auditorium.t is a blockbuster in 2021. china is continuing to push back against u.s. sanctions, issuing new rules to protect firms from unjustified foreign laws. aree top american banks delisting hong kong products because of u.s. sanctions on the city. dan, let's talk about the banks. 500 products. walk me through what they are delisting and the potential significance. 500hey are delisting structured products, basically anything that could, in the way of this executive order from newp, or he has banned investment starting january 11. it is a vaguely worded executive order. the banks are basically taking precautions and trying to make sure they don't run afoul of these laws. these orders. we are seeing them take action today. you look at the likes of state street, they have a $14 billion tracker fund and they are not going to take anymore positions that could put them at risk or in conflict. isn you look at china, it continuing this pushback against u.s. sanctions. they are issuing rules to prote

i'm tom mackenzie. >> and i'm david ingalls. we are counting down to the open.ies today. more global cooperation and an end to cold war thinking. xi jinping

anchor 2: and i and tom mackenzie in beijing.eads asian stocks higher, as investors wait rising virus numbers with potential u.s. relief. investors also looking ahead to the fed's first meeting of the year. anchor: an address of the world economic forum, focusing on multilateralism and the need to cooperate. tom: india shows new signs of recovery. we will discuss that with the world's biggest maker of two wheels. haslinda: a check on the market asia. it is a big week for markets, we have the fed, we had earnings, we also are keeping an eye on the outlook for the stimulus plan. will it be $1.9 trillion? unlikely. the hsi currently up by 1.9%. edging away from 30,000, but still in positive territory. a big tech story today, the tech index searching past 10,000 at a record, the 10% leading the rally we are seeing in the hang seng today. tom: unlikely to be 1.9 trillion dollars coming out of the biden administration, but it is the timing as well as to when that stimulus has, will be focus as well. we are looking ahead to futures, 11:

qian, ubs was eugene securities chairman speaking to bloomberg's tom mackenzie. the bloomberg business flash. britain is less attractive for international business, but it is well according to a study by germany's foundation for businesses. the u.k. has slipped behind the u.s., but remains ahead of the rest of the g7. elon musk is bringing his broadband system to the u.k.. the world's richest man aims to roll out superfast broadband by sending thousands of satellites into low-earth orbit. alreadyaunched hundreds and is testing a service in north america. the approval allows musk to enter the british broadband market and compete with mainstream providers. anna: thanks very much. hsbc shareholders including man group are pushing the bank to cut its support for the fossil fuel industry. joining us with more is bloomberg's esg and climate reporter. what are shareholders asking for and why? essentially, shareholders trillion, they4 are not a small group, are asking the bank to give more detail around their plans on the way to get to net zero. the bank announced it pla

i'm tom mackenzie. >> i'm david ingles. in china, stocks across the region drifting after declines on wall street overnight. fears of surging virus numbers will

and our thanks to tom mackenzie. don't miss our coverage of the inauguration.e right here on bloomberg television, radio, and quicktake. haslinda: the first word headlines for you, the european central bank is emulating its asian peers by controlling government borrowing costs but in a european way. the bank is buying bonds to limit the difference between yields the strongest and weakest euro zone economies but one source says policymakers have specific ideas on what is appropriate. an ecb spokesman client to comment. china is ramping up dissent against -- against the coronavirus, ramping up the construction of a quarantine center built outside a city. it holds more than 1700 rooms and is expected to admit its first occupants later wednesday. construction began last week after a jump in covid cases in the province. the biden administration is said to be considering a special commission to help airlines in the coronavirus downturn. the group airlines for america says it should include government carriers, travel operations and labor unions. airlines worldwide ar

welcome, i am tom mackenzie. david: and i am david ingles. the open of your sessions. let's get your top stories today. the u.s. is bracing for the end of the trump era, with barriers in place and thousands of troops in washington. the

i'm tom mackenzie. >> we are counting down to the start of trade in the chinese mainland.tories today. stocks extending declines from wall street overnight. big tech weighing on these markets. facebook, tesla disappointing with earnings.

i'm tom mackenzie. >> we are counting down to the first session of the week.n down along with u.s. futures, awaiting delays of numbers out of china and the markets comes le

welcome to "bloomberg markets: china open," -- welcome to "bloomberg markets: china open," i'm tom mackenzie ingles. it is friday on the chinese mainland. top stories today, the gamestop going global, shining a light

i'm tom mackenzie. david: i'm david ingles.to the open of trade in the chinese mainland and hong kong. . let's get to your top stories. joe biden signs executive actions on day one. his daunting to do list includes the coronavirus, a weakening u.s. economy, and worsening ties with beijing. tom:

i am tom mackenzie. david: and i'm david ingles.ting down to the open of the last training session of the week in hong kong. -- and cnooc are blacklisted by the u.s.. the company is accused of links to the chinese

let's bring in tom mackenzie in beijing. tom: echoes of the language we heard over the last four years when it comes to china, trade practices as abusive the fact china had stolen u.s. intellectual property, illegal subsidies, and she said rather than a unilateral approach, she would seek to work with allies to tackle these trade abuses. that seems to be enough to tariffs put in place. previously, administration officials within the incoming administration have said they will not be in a rush. so the question is how far this will go on issues like tariffs, but also chinese corporations, will they remove some of the executive orders banning investment or keep them in place? haidi: perhaps further boxing in the biden administration, mike pompeo labeling its crackdown genocide. tom: not a surprise. it is not normal to use a word like genocide lightly. mike pompeo said it is an ongoing and systemic attempt to destroy the people, citing sterilization, the internment camp, and forced labor. what we have heard from the incoming -- h