tom porcelli. tom: you are a conspiracy theorist.onathan: big conversation with mohamed el-erian of bloomberg opinion. we will get his view on the latest economic data, the latest earnings, what it means for the markets and central banks. after that, the view from the white house. tom: a more important conversation that it was 24 hours ago. he has to massage a negative gdp statistic wrapped around, as tom porcelli suggested, two of the five quintiles flat on their back. jonathan: uncomfortable moment to explain. negative growth and inflation at multi-decade highs. amazon, the big loser on the day. on tv and radio, this is bloomberg surveillance. ♪ lisa: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, i'm lisa mateo. let's get to first word news. president biden has broad support from congress for a massive $33 billion ukraine aid package. lawmakers could finish work by may 9, but if democrats assist on attaching funding for coronavirus vaccinations and treatments to the package, action could be delayed indefinitely. officials

right now at the top of the pile of wage analysis is tom porcelli, chief u.s. omist at rbc capital markets. it is percolating that wage growth, maybe it is subsiding. what is the take on your meat and potatoes wage growth? tom p: good morning to you all. it is good to be with you. it has been interesting. if you look at the paper report that just past, it is pretty interesting. it looks like average hourly earnings are starting to slow. nevertheless, i think directionally it is where we expect it is going to go. the idea that growth is going to slow, i don't think that is debatable. i think where it is debatable is the degree to which it slows, but if the economy slows down from 8% consumption last year, we are going to slow down this year, probably between 2% and 3%. this will probably take a lot of heat off of the wage dynamics, so by the end of the year i think we are in a different spot. in terms of total compensation, you are probably looking at 5% or 6% total, which compares to about 8% total comp last year. in real terms, you are meaningfully lower than t

jonathan: should we catch up with a man who will actually read the fed minutes, tom porcelli?ning us a little bit later, 8:30 eastern, from rbc capital. i can guarantee i know a man who won't be reading the minutes. from new york, this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, i'm ritika gupta. a lot of are zelenskyy ill address that you zelenskyy will address the u.n. sick -- volodymyr zelenskyy will address the un security council today. he said the death toll may be even higher. bloomberg has learned the pentagon will be sending ukraine new switchblade drones under tank busting warheads, in addition to less powerful versions of the unmanned aircraft. the weapons are part of a $300 million package of military assistance announced last week by the defense department. twitter's largest shareholder says he will be a passive investor, but in the hours after elon musk announced he had taken a 9.2% stake in the company, some were skeptical. ark investment management founder cathie wood said it may lead to another management change. >> i will say

we had tom porcelli of rbc overnight saying it could be a negative print, and even though everyone is expecting this and it is trade related and people will look past it, it is still a market talking about weakness in the economy in the united states. president biden will speak about the situation in ukraine, potentially u.s. aid to ukraine. we will also hear from you in secretary-general antonio guterres, meeting with volodymyr zelenskyy today. earnings do continue. we are awaiting at any moment twitter. we are of course going to see apple and amazon. meta, i am fascinated by how much the pop is. i think dan ives put it really well. perhaps this is a game of expectations considering how beaten up those shares were. the nasdaq down still windy percent so far this year. -- down 20% still so far this year. jonathan: those earnings do any moment now. joining us now is someone who likes emerging markets, who likes u.s. stocks. wei li, global chief investment strategist at black rock. why do you still like the equity story? wei: if using about the broader macro environment, indeed we have

i'm not going to claim to have read all of it, but tom porcelli at rbc highlighted a couple of key passages. he was pointing out that perhaps on the margins you are starting to see a softening. for example, there were comments that said there were signs of tiny cracks, including that some businesses may begin to start cutting jobs because they can't find the workers and are paying them too much, and inflation has eroded consumer spending power, dampening demand. so are the margins -- so on the margins you are seeing that in the commentary out of the fed. tom: in 27 minutes, we get claims. one of the themes of our april conversations is a fully employed america for your we have heard that with a force. jonathan: you will get some pushback on that, but certainly looking at the data points, 100 80,000 is the estimate on jobless claims this morning. doing the start of the rate hiking cycle from the federal reserve, there are some who believe that things can only get worse and not better, given that unemployment is already down here in the threes. tom: i'm going to highlight this once more, the