tom sater is in the cnn weather center tracking all of this for us. for this storm? >> it looks like if i have to give it a bulls-eye, it's going to be pretty close to slidell, louisiana. new orleans is on the western flank, which is the better place to be, but everything to the east is going to have some impacts. it doesn't look very impressive at all. once it moved across south florida into the warm waters of the keys, it blossomed. the national hurricane center went right to a storm and notice in red where we is a our warnings, that's east of new orleans over towards areas of pascagoula. so all the models take it in a pretty good clip at 17 miles an hour. that may help us out. the faster these storms move, the less amount of rainfall it can drop. so even though flooding is going to be a concern, we're looking at a landfall category 1, probably around 10:00 p.m. or 11:00 p.m. tomorrow night. again, the question is how much time and space does it actually have to develop? and then it will find it continuing to lose strength, but still provide pretty

stall tom sater is in the cnn weather center. tom, 20 to 40 inches of rain, a mastiff storm expected to drop. there's a brand-new advisory. take it away. >> dry air, don, has been trying to infiltrate this. notice in the southern flank, the symmetry is lost. it's been going this eye wall replacement cycle. we're losing the eye. that is to be expected. going down to a category 2 status means absolutely nothing. the rain is still going to be the same. more rain in a three-day period than washington, d.c. picks up all year. the surge is still going to be the same. we're still going to have massive waves crashing on shore and well inland. the i don't know thing coming down to a category 2 means is there's two things. the winds won't be as strong. this was never about the winds. it's always been about water, water, water. the other thing we can take away from this going down to a 2 right now, the only other factor is okay, hazel still will be the strongest storm to ever hit carolina. record books remain the same. hugo will always be th

thank you very much, tom sater. we'll check back with you. appreciate the update. >>> tom mentioned the national hurricane center. we're bringing in ed rappaport, the deputy director of the national hurricane center. ed, you know we have to meet on these occasions. i wish it was better news, but i hope people heed the warnings and get out. you have been tracking this storm all night. what is the best case or worst case scenario for those who are bracing for this hurricane? >> we're very concerned. it's a dangerous hurricane now, and it will be a dangerous hurricane at landfall. the details, as you've been talking about, won't be known for a while. but regardless of the exact time and exact location of the landfall of the center, this is a very large storm. and so there is a significant area that's going to be at risk from storm surge, which is the greatest killer in hurricanes. what we've got shown here now is the area that's under a storm surge warning. that means life-threatening surge. as mentioned, 9 to 13 feet of inundation is possible al

now i want to bring in cnn's tom sater. he's in the cnn weather center. tom, good evening to you. you heard what the fema administrators -- what they say about hurricane florence not going to be a, quote, glancing blow. it's going to be a mike tyson punch to the carolina coast. give us the latest. >> well, even mike tyson got a little tired from time to time. it may not have been until round eight or nine, but he looked a little ragged at times, and that's what florence looks like. however he always came back with a couple of combinations, punches. when florence gets into the gulf stream, those warm waters, don't be surprised if florence gets a little power back and throws her own flurry of punches here because what we're watching looks like the eye is trying to collapse. i mean winds are at 115, don. if it gets down to 110, this is category 2. do not be fooled by this. this has got a lot -- she's got tricks up her sleeve. but the eye wall replacement, when you spin a top on a table, it can only sustain that strength and that centrifugal force for so long. it's got to go through t

i want to go back to tom sater at the cnn weather center with this. going to bring a lot of rain, and very quickly, as you've talked about. what areas, then, are most vulnerable? >> well, this is one of the most vulnerable spots in the entire u.s. i mean, with that low-level land, the marshy land conditions, of course, the barrier islands, you have the intercoastal. i wanted to show you the track pause we were talking about it, it could stay offshore, but they want to bring it in friday afternoon. some of the models, kate, that are just north of these numbers bring it in friday morning. but they, too, give us a cone of uncertainty that half of it is onshore, half is off. so any snacenario is possible, t they curve it. this is days and days and days of rainfall until the system kicks off towards knoxville. when it comes to the rain, however, and this is a big, big deal here, much like harvey, which slowed with no steering currents, you could outwalk it, we may be able to outwalk this one, too. i'm concerned about all of the rain up into the northeast.

cnn meteorologist tom sater tracking the storm for us.urricane center. do we know better where the track is going to take the storm? >> well, jim, the track's been pretty much right on since this morning. i think a big story, what a surprise for many residents. just last night it was just a cluster of storms in the atlantic but once that center moved across south florida and got into warm waters off the keys, it went right to a named tropical storm. the last advisory has changed that hurricane watch to a hurricane warning. notice it up to the north there. it does not include new orleans. it's just to the east. all the way over across mobile bay to the panhandle in florida and alabama. the storm system wobbled a little bit earlier, moving towards marco island which, of course, had its damage from hurricane irma. the system is moving at a pretty good clip, 17 miles an hour. all the computer models are in good agreement where it wants to place it. it's the timing and intensity. category 1 hurricane expected 10:00, 11:00 p.m. tomorrow night,

let's check in with tom sater in the cnn weather

let's check in with tom sater in the cnn weather center. >> absolutely. the first half of the atlantic hurricane season was relatively quiet. the peak of the season is actually monday, tomorrow, and we're seeing an uptick. we have three storms we may have two more by the end of the week. this is going to be become most like that overnight tonight a major hurricane. that means category 3, possibly developing into category 4, maybe even a 5. based on historical traffic accident we've never had one like this. this is 1,400 miles away, a lot can change. but the impacts are going to be felt up and down the entire east coast where landfall will be made, yes, we're going to obviously work on getting that down as close as we can, but i don't want anybody to focus on landfall because a broad area of the coastline will be impacted. right now the cone of uncertainty in all the models taking it to the carolinas, but because it will not move in until late thursday into friday, this could easily change. it could move north, the waters we know are very warm and getting

let's get right to the tom sater in the weather center. new advisory has come in. what can you telluous. >> we still have a massive category 4 florence here. it hasn't reached its peak yet. some updates i need to tell you about. it's such and aceftive atlantic. we could have a depression or tropical storm in the next couple of days in the yucatan. services will be spread out across the country. let's back up from yesterday and tell you what's happened in the last couple of hours. early this morning, if national hurricane center issued watches. we get the updates every three hours after the watches. it didn't take long for them to push into a warning from santee river south carolina up to duck, north carolina including albemarle and pimlico. this is coming. the system is still massive. >> last night, winds at 140, dropped this morning to 130. it slowed down this morning. now it's speeding back up. it's back to 140 which means the system has lungs. it's exhaling, inhaling. most likely went through a little reorganization with the eye. it is barreling still toward aro

i want to get the latest from tom sater in the cnn weather center in atlanta.tronge

we have tom sater. what do we know, tom? >> you got a good mentor there. for those of you who wanted to know how large in size florence is, to compare to the land, we're getting much closer now. you can see what a monster this is. this all started a little wave off the coast of africa, the first advisory was august 30th, two weeks ago. for the first time in history a storm hurricane at this latitude and longitude is making landfall. never before has that happened. they've all moved to the north. between tomorrow night, thursday night and sunday morning, florence may move only 150 miles. that is slower than a walking pace. two to three miles an hour. like harvey. the tropical storm force winds, you're starting to see how it's broad eng out. a wave height was reported at 83 feet. is that -- that's mind boggling. so this system as it moves in you can see how far out 300 miles of tropical storm force winds. this is a relentless rainfall and believe it or not, willie m see more rain than washington, d.c., picks up in an entire year in just three days. >> i got

because i remember yesterday, tom sater talking about the possibility of this storm not being able to maintain itself as a 4. >> well, i think that's basically because this storm is going to slow down so much, the steering currents for this storm are basically going to go away in the next three to five days. so this storm is going to sit right off the coast. and when it does that, it's going to continue to shred that coastline and start to weaken and tear apart just a little bit. so it could still maintain a weak category 4 strength by the time it makes landfall. so it's either going to be a strong 3 or a low-end 4. but i really think, regardless of what it is, it is going to be devastating. >> and just one more thing. you said that you talk about it slowing down and slowing down on land. how many days are you talking about it being a presence in this entire region inland? >> we're still going to be talking about this storm sunday, maybe even monday. some of the models are disagreeing as to where exactly it's going to go, once it goes inland, because it's going to slow so much. some m

our meteorologist tom sater joins us now with the latest.ould very well strengthen into a hurricane and new advisories just in. what's the latest? >> the latest is just moments ago, they have dropped the warnings for south florida, anderson, which is good news, which means the system is moving northward now. the center is about 95 miles just to the west of ft. myers, which has been inundated with heavy rainfall. the pressure has been dropping, which means it's getting stronger, and the winds have kicked up from 50 miles an hour to 60. it needs to get to 74 to be declared a hurricane. the question is how much time and space does it have to generate that strength. and it does look like it has this. it's moving at a pretty good clip. you can see the warnings are from near new orleans to the east to the border of florida and alabama. we're still looking at a landfall roughly 10:00 p.m. or 11:00 p.m. tomorrow night as a category 1 hurricane. >> and what about the possibility of storm surge? >> well, the storm surge is probably the biggest threat

i want to get the latest from tom sater in the cnn weather center in atlanta. so talk to me, how much stronger is this storm expected to get? >> reporter: anderson, yesterday it was a category 1. so it jumped to a 3 to a 4. it is very difficult for storms this size to maintain this strength and this forward movement. i expect some fluctuation to take place. but i think once it stars wobbling a little bit, like taking a top and spinning it on a table, it's going to reorganize. i think it could get to category 5. and with that said, how long will it hold that before we're expecting it to drop back to a category 4? i mean, this is historic. it's been almost 30 years with hugo, september 22nd, back in '89. >> i mean, the concern is not just about the initial impact, obviously, of the storm, but also about the possibility that it stalls, like hurricane harvey did over texas last year. >> exactly. you could out-walk harvey, and that was a big concern. when you look at the end of this track, it starts show a big bubble. that means this system wants to slow down, and o

cnn meteorologist tom sater is watching florence. let's talk science first. what do you see? >> well, i'll tell you what. this is a crazy bee live of a mess in the atlantic. i've got to point out, oblige me if you will, by the time florence makes landfall we could have a tropical depression or storm in the gulf. they are watching it. here's the latest. early this morning in the early morning hours a watch was posted. that means the hurricane center will start issuing updates every three hours. since then it didn't take long to upgrade the hurricane watch to a warning from santee river, south carolina, up to duck, north carolina, including pemlico. with that said, we've got some changes going on here. the last advisory not much. that's to be expected. it still has not reached its peak intensity. we believe this could get close to category 5 tomorrow and maybe only 2 miles per hour. the soundtrack is still the same, but there are some changes. the big concern i have is because the system is so large, so far away, it's going to bring with it a wall of water. when katrina came ou

our meteorologist tom sater joins us now with the latest.s ago, they have dropped the warnings for south florida, anderson, which is good news, which means the system is mo