tom: and value. kevin: yeah, that, too. alright. well, until next time. i'm kevin o'connor. tom: i'm tom silva. mark: i'm mark mccullough. . kevin: for "ask this old house." tom: alright. here you go, sonny. richard: oh, great. kevin: whoa, what do you -- tom: watch out now. that's hot. kevin: a s'more? richard: yeah. kevin: holy mackerel. did you guys actually melt these. richard: yeah. kevin: on that? tom: no, that's electric, you dummy. mark: [ chuckles ] kevin: unbelievable. tom: used my heat gun. kevin: mmm. pretty good. richard: torch. kevin: oh, good. we'll share some of our own holiday renovation nightmares. [ laughter ] oh, no! jenn: i'm gonna share a few of my favorite things about christmas trees. keith: and i'll show you how to turn the front of your house into a winter wonderland. so, we're gonna start with the icicle lights in the gutter. woman: okay. keith: to do this, we're gonna use a clip. woman: oh, cool. keith, i love it. it's just magical. i wish you the happiest of holiday. keith: you too, and thanks for having me. and then do it yourself, you've opened up a different kind of toolbox. the home depot

go figure tom, the whole name being me big time tom tom knowing i'm in my hidden my good laying here tonight. now guide by how many of them i'm lucky enough. not to mention it was only a ploy to beat you up to now include me that doesn't include the whole new city ploy. you need to go for the one that we could buy in the mall in someone in a hurry, because they said publicly move on to the forceful need to run into the local to you that you all know they need to install. you jump all the morning media to me will lead me all, you know. so what we've got to do is identify the threats that we have. it's crazy to let it be an arms race off and spearing dramatic development only loosely and going to exist . i don't see how that strategy will be successful, very critical. time to sit down and talk just when the united states is gradually pulling out of vietnam, there is a rush of concern that laos may become another vietnam. not so says the administration and says, well, the president will let it happen. that's one reason we learned one lesson that is we're not going to avoid any kind of m

go figure tom, the whole name being me big time tom tom knowing you know, i'm going to my hidden my good playing it night. now given the mind i'm biased by any of them. i didn't you go to college with only a ploy to beat you up to now you know, my name could be that, but i didn't click that. you knew, you see, before you need us, you need to put that one. that only you could buy the mall, didn't someone would say so up until you come to my new book or so. how did you know? i'm a little like that you can get me feel all good. it need to end. so if you all believe you want me to know me, read me i.e. all you know. oh look forward to talking to people or should be very careful point summoning the demons a robot must protect its own existence with greater trying to do so. simpson, exacerbating and alarming everyone. what that means is we end up taking the long but actually very little just when the united states is gradually pulling out, there is a rush of concern that laos may become another we're not going to send american troops. there are no american combat forces involves training for t

tom keene, this is jonathan ferro. lisa is off today. jonathan: look at the goldman note, tom. go over that. tom: roaring 20's from goldman-sachs. j.p. morgan talking about market nirvana. let's look at where future are right now. s&p 500 futures this morning, kind of chopping around. positive .7 of 1%. but here we are at 3567 and ldman coming out, tom, for 2020. lut let's go with the year end 2021. 4300. 16% upside through 21. in addition to the upside in the year end. jonathan: again, it's everybody readjusting hearing, yeah, it's a vaccine and i know he likes the value and e.s.g. it's got to be more than the edical news. jonathan: a vaccine is a more important development for the economy and markets from the perspective policy of a biden presidency. this is historic for the market right now. we talked about it reapedly, this market is living in the ackhand of the 2021. the deterioration of the covid cases and a contested election down in washington, d.c. that has not been resolved yet and a senate race that has not been resolved yet. we need get through the next couple of months still. tom: the next couple of weeks as well. we can

want to show you the pound, tom, because it may be a bit counterintuitive to what we have seen in the past and terms of doing more, and you can see sterling 1.3012, tom. tom: we have got a wonderful guest for that, francine will bring in futures, yes, in the then, dow futures out in 28,000 level, 258 dow points, and the real story here, i will keep it short, folks, is the vix with a vengeance, with election uncertainty beginning to be pushed aside. what, three cups of coffee ago, now at 27.44 on the vix. that is an extraordinary move, and evaporation of statistical uncertainty. the-year yield .72%. i think, francine, we will leave it there, because the political conversation right now is so important. francine: yeah, tom, although, three cups of coffee? i would say at least 24 cups of coffee, otherwise you are, you know, more virtuous than i am. so joe biden on the brink of a drifter flipping michigan and wisconsin. he is just six electoral votes needed to win0 the presidency. joining us at this morning is dr. leslie vinjamuri, head of the u.s. and americas program at chatham house. leslie, given the mathematics, is that now a done deal for joe biden? dr.

tom. it is a wonderful book i want to encourage everyone to read it and buy multiple copies. >> great questions. tom. prof. schwartz: wow. jeremy poses excellent points and i appreciate very much what he said about the book. that is probably the highest praise you can give an author, that you have got to them to think about something. i know that is one of the things i hope to do in the book. the abuse of power by the executive, yes, i think kissinger was one of these figures who was concerned about leaks. it was one of the driving things that led richard nixon to get the plumbers and that kissinger had a connection to some of the people who worked on his staff. one of them has written a fascinating doctoral dissertation in anchorage people to look that up. but i think kissinger -- this is where kissinger, both being political and nonpolitical, paid off. in a way, the image he shaved and speaking about domestic politics was something that the media was happy to believe. very happy to buy into and give him a pass. there is a wonderful line that walter cronkite added and they were asked what they gave

tom. do you want to say anything? tom: i was going to talk arsenal and manchester united. jonathan: itjonathan: is a really quiet week, tom. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom: second-place. [laughter] jonathan: we advance this morning. good morning to you all. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the presidential campaign is now in its final full day. a series of polls show democrat joe biden leading president trump nationally and in battleground states. still, some of those estates remain extremely close. both candidates will campaign today in pennsylvania. the state is vital to biden chances and has become almost a must win for the president as well. president trump is suggesting he may fire infectious diseases chief anthony cousy after the election. over the weekend, -- chief anthony fauci after the election. over the weekend, felty said that -- over the weekend, fauci said the country is in for a lot of pain with the coronavirus. the federal reserve won't increase the pace of asset purchases this year or next. most of those polled by bloomberg said even

tom. right? tom: yeah. francine: if it's the french regulators, i guess we have to wait and see. i know our reporters will call to try and figure out if there is anything more. we will know certainly from the regulators and a couple of weeks what that report found. could be nothing, could be significant. some of the biggest things start from nothing and become big. others, we never really hear about, tom. tom: let's scrutinize the data. it's a quiet day in the markets. red and green on the screen. nasdaq 100 futures go up, it's all fractional material. 24.vix under the yield was 9.97 before -- 0.97.day oil ebbs away. 97.rling, 1.31 save me. francine: i will save you by showing you burberry. tom: there you go! francine: the figure, sales were not great, but actually it was better-than-expected. sales dropped less than expected. burberry gaining almost some 3%. it was gaining at one point almost 6%. clear that the global stocks rally is easing. investors assessing whether the equity markets are overheated. this on the backdrop of a deteriorating -- on coronavirus information. tom: cashmere scarf from burberry pricing in at $600. i can see it on francine lacqua. francine: three standard deviations. let's talk about u.s. politics. tom: what's it called? francine: joe biden has been named -- has named long-term aide ron klain as his white house chief of staff. republican senator from oklah

tom, correct? tom: got that right. jonathan: mike goes first, then tom keene. right? tom: i am just going to ask the same questions mike asks. [laughter] lisa: classic. jonathan: here's the price action this tuesday morning. mike mckee first, tom keene second. that's how it should be. going to play on that for the next couple of hours. that rotation continues, if you're looking in certain places. a huge theme yesterday with the white s&p 500. sarah ponczek telling us for the s&p 500 eagle week -- the s&p 500 equal weight, the biggest outperformance on a single day ever. euro-dollarrket, one dollar 18 cents. we pulled back by 0.1%. i will mention the trading range of the last five or six months. let's go from april through to november. the lowest was in early august. the highs, when we breached those levels yesterday, and then we pulled back a little bit. now 96, 90he high is eight basis points or so. we are at the top end of the range of the last seven months, and it all comes off of one day in a huge repricing. tom: it is a real mystery about where we go from here. a

tom tom has made this kind of a distance and they have a number of days home much more time have you invest in your daily commute and really in this number is a bald 30 percent what it means. ideal case i might you arrive from 20 minutes and. plus 30 percent or so in your twenty's is something the ball 26 minutes. as a local i'd have expected the delay to be longer than the 30 percent cut collated by setting. it certainly was a lot longer on april 12th 1990 a day that saw an estimated 18000000 cars driving between east and west germany. it was the 1st easter weekend after the fall of the berlin wall and a record breaking one. nowadays berlin is the biggest city in reunified germany by a pretty big margin. but in terms of bet traffic a brilliant barely registers on the international scale let's look at the top 3 worldwide. but in the more go tot driver spend an average of 230 hours a year in traffic jams that's almost 10 days. that might be one reason why the city has a better future for road rage. in 2nd spot bangalore in 2019 drivers in the indian city typically lost 243 hours of th

tom tom on the missouri river the city's known for these underground solar vaults. where are we what kind of cell is this half of the shia in iran one of the large selous of the underworld form a wine cellar unfortunately they no longer used to such today. there are cell is under the whole of tartan tub because at the end of the 20th century it was a huge wine trading center people said it was the 2nd largest wine trading center in europe after bordeaux in france. in the year 890 s. alone some 18000000 leases of wine made their way from here out into the big wide world. the 1st thing all visitors notice above ground is the breach gate on the muzzle at the beginning of the 19th century there was enough wealth here to commission the well known berlin art nouveau architect we're moving he not only designed the bridge gate but also a number of villa. park noble architecture characterizes tom caught up to this day a great place to start my journey along the muzzle. today i want to find out why the muzzle is one of the most beautiful river scapes in germany so i'm off for right along a part of them was ill psychopath from top to call him but that's not all i'll also be finding out why muzzle wines are so special. for one thing wine growing on them as well dates back to roman times. but there are also other attractions in the area like the mediæval else castle. and if you're from argentina will also show was around her hometown some that are failing. the nice thing about a bike path that runs along a river is that it's fairly flat at. as long as it is close to the water the muzzle belly also offers a lot of peter falkiner around us but for those you have to paddle a little harder. but it's worth taking the detour uphill here for example are the rules of cleaving book castle built in the 14th century it was repeatedly attacked destroyed and rebuilt until it was finally blown

tom. actually tom and diane i've known since i began my graduate student career. both diane and tom have been so important to my development as a scholar and my continuing growth and learning as a scholar. it's really a pleasure to be here. it's also pleasure to be part of an event. this the second time i've been part of william roger lewis lecture at the wilson center. glad to honor a colleague, wonderful to be part of this. let me jump right in. i want to echo nice and laudatory things people said about tom's book. it certainly deserves those. i want to add one more. i really enjoyed this book. i read it twice. one in page proofs and the final version. i really enjoyed it because it made me think. it's a book about kissinger that makes you think about american power and the development of the united states. it's using kissinger as an insight to the issues. that's what all of us on the panel have done in our writing about the issues. the book seems to me rests on paradoxes, the phrase tom uses, po polytropic. he can be charming, incredibly superficial. narcissistic but can negotiat

tom tom has made of this kind of statistics and they have a number of days home much more time have you invest in your daily commute and roll in this number is about 30 percent of the moon's. ideal case at midnight you arrive from 20 minutes and. plus 30 percent so in a sense isn't something ballpoints it's and that's something that. as a local i'd have expected the g. lay to be longer than the 30 percent cut collated by setting. it certainly was a lot longer on april 12th 1919 a day that saw an estimated 18000000 cars driving between east and west germany. it was the 1st easter weekend after the fall of the berlin wall and a record breaking one. nowadays berlin is the biggest city in reunified germany by a pretty big margin. but in terms of better traffic a brilliant barely registers on the international scale let's look at the top 3 worldwide. drivers spend an average of 230 hours a year in traffic jams and that's almost 10 dates. that might be one reason why the city has a better pitch ation for road rage. in 2nd spot bangalore in 2019 drivers in the indian city typically lost 243 al

tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." an even full day for all of us worldwide. francine lacqua and london, tom keene in new york. the serious lockdown in the united kingdom and the ramifications of that. janet henry is with us from hsbc. dell futures up 3.60. i want -- dow futures up 3.60. i want your thoughts on the austerity over this battle in the stimulus to come. have we broken ourselves free of austerity echo janet: -- of austerity? janet: i think we have for now. if we get in anywhere, it is more than likely to be the emerging economies because markets have enforced it. but there is no western leader at the moment suggesting cuts in spending now or anytime in the next couple of years. there are so many ways we can deal with debt, and eventually i'm sure the investor -- the western world, he will be increases in taxation. but austerity, it is in the form of spending cuts. tomand david blum are like a bad episode of the crown. david has been incredibly correct about resilient dollar. ?oes it finally break does hsbc communally say finally we get weak dollar, that everybody is almost hoping and praying for? janet: we have got a pretty stable dollar, which is still fairly strong. i am not in the camp that suggests that the dollar is in permanent decline. we have seen a lot of optimism regarding europe, and that is important. you can only do well on the dollar if you think there is an alternative out there and there is a lot of cues on europe, particular with the recovery fund and the immediate response to the crisis, the central bank working with governments as a backstop effectively, but now the realization that we still have not got the recovery coming through, and that europe may going back into basically recession is a final -- in the final quarter of the year is starting to make people question currencywhat kind of europe is on at the moment. broadly spea

though it might have gone too far at times to want to tom tom. lucky to avoid a red in the 57th minute. as bailey led the labor queues in charge to retake the lead, main man on the audio was struggling to conjure his ruthless finishing of the last week's but one of labor camps and strengths is that practically the whole team is dangerous. putting minutes left a bit of slots to sell the alexander jackets with the ball in the box. leverkusen he's there 9 full score and just 8 league. that was enough for laver crews and they have shown a toughness and scoring depth that they once lacked in head to make the day even more special. it was picked up as a happy birthday theme. and today that the victory was fighting like judy. yes. for that he got it, so i wish him a very good night after this. and hopefully you can enjoy this time because you know, just one point behind byron. and if they can stay consistent, maybe they can even catch them. sometimes it's not the goalie who has a gripe with their defense under a little bit of pressure from so it's much

tom: within the culture, the birthday is a 30 day celebration. it is bracketed around 15 days before and 15 days after. lisa: you are nailing it, tom. tomday is a birthday. tom a lotif you see on bloomberg radio and bloomberg tv over the next 24 hours, there's a good reason for it. he is not allowed home. [laughter] ons market is flanked, up 60 the s&p. this is bloomberg. ♪ the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. joe biden is on the white house after winning in wisconsin and michigan. nevada, chance may be where he holds a lead over president trump. the president's campaign is suing in michigan and pennsylvania to stop vote counts that have been trending towards biden. the president could still be reelected, but he would have to win all of the battleground states that have not yet been called. it is a grim milestone in the coronavirus pandemic. daily deaths and new infections have set global records. yesterday it was reported that more than 10,000 people died from the disease, and the number the diseaseporting past 600,000 in one day for the first time. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2

knowing the lot of asylum seekers, beautiful tom tom with the journey of all 16 prosecution fleeing the games that imprisoned them false imprisoned them and told shouldn't be in place and then just use military bags and it's going to a lot of them in terms of these also it's just demonising. as more reports imagist, protests, hunger strikes, and even suicide attempts. it's unclear what the future of these and similar sites will be. but for the residents, a decision can't come soon enough. only i dream, i think we've reached a trend. going to be pretty shoddy at woodstock r.t. . u.k. kent charities are warning that more americans are now going hungry than in the last 20 years. food banks have seen demand so word during the pandemic last year. some 35000000 americans struggled to put meals on the table, but this year the number rose to 58000000 roughly. i was a student of the us population. but while many fight hunger during the pandemic, some others are enjoying record profits. artie's interest on love has, a story. when you hear the rich and powerful talk about covert 19 in the u.s., it

beautiful tom tom with the journey of all 16 prosecution, fien and regimes that imprisoned them false imprisoned them and told shouldn't be in place in a and just use military bags. and it's all of them in terms of these guys in and the government stands accused of trying to cover up the problem. the home office introduced a gagging clause in the form of a confidentiality waiver, centuries silencing visitors from speaking out about what they see inside the barracks. my effort to talk to people on the inside of the barracks proved futile as long as security was around. so we just arrived here at napier barracks and just as we got here, a man came out of his window and he started screaming help out. so he pointed and just ahead, we came over here and the security man prevented him. as you can see, the security guard is still there, and it seems like he is calling for more. but why can't they speak to us on why don't you let them speak to us? if they want to speak to us, they can speak to us at the same time, i need to go to the home office maintains however, that these protocols underpi

tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. from new york and london for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equitymorning, with futures going nowhere, but the crosscurrents this morning absolutely phenomenal. where do you want to begin. tom you begin? i've got to go to

tom: good morning, everyone. bloomberg "surveillance." lots going on. francine lacqua in london and tom keene in new york. extraordinary news out of washington for our international audience, this election seems to be case after case but there are some interesting goings ons between the president of the united states and michigan state lurs and election officials. this all happening in the last 24 hours. we'll have much more on it throughout the morning. wolfgang, i want to take brexit and go off an ian bremmer yt which is every nation for itself. is every european union on brexit now or is it britain and six other voices on fishing rights, agricultural rights, the nitty-gritty of brexit. >> it is interesting. angela merkel never -- she kind of held it together by not evoking national interest. macron, the fishing industry. the question many germans are asking themselves were we right to withhold on the interest and having a trading with the u.k. en macron is threatening about the fishing. the unity held up so far. the germans kept it together quite well. but as we approach the end game and we are approaching it at some point, nobody wants to make predictions when it is going to happen. the case of covid-19 and negotiating on hold for now. there may not be a deal next eek. also emergency provisions going on and being prepared for what happens if there is a delay. they are going to keep negotiating. they are not going to let a deadline get in the way. the unity to have e.u. will at one time come under some strain unless there is a deal at the moment. they know exactly what the deal is. tomknow, i'm going to steal a line from politico e.u. here. in cod we trust. i get the fishing thing and that is that fishing is a heritage issue for other nations as well. how many other cods are out there? > at the moment, not many. the u.k. and the e.u. have a difference on state a for example. that is a matter between the u.k. because they don't want to bind themselves. i think the u.k. will not cave in on this but it will accept the principle that it needs to have to have a robust policy and it cannot completely disline from the e.u. the trid relationship are suffer as a consequence. hat is a tradeoff that might -- my hunch at the moment is to say there will be a -- it won't come to this. problems enough. i don't -- i do not at the moment anticipate a big row between france and germany unless of course british play this really hard. i'm not agreing to anything. i want a deal that is trade only and nothing else. the germans may at one point say we want that too. but it hasn't happened

tom: good morning. we welcome you worldwide, early morning america. francine lacqua in london. tom keene in new york. we are focused on america, election coverage 7 p.m. tonight, really through the entire day. offry yunversation, ge leads with that in pulling together the strands. currency aslk about litmus paper and the dynamic is without question, dollar. some of those question the future of the dollar. up dalio was talking renminbi down the road, exorbitant privilege. do you buy it? geoffry: somewhere in between. the dollar will be difficult to displace as a dominant reserve currency. will almoste, it certainly be the dominant reserve currency internationally. it does not mean there cannot be alternatives. renminbi is one of the best candidates. ago, china released to the next five-year plan. tomn! i just did the math on the old hp12c. years4.7% per year for 15 to double the economy. that is not a big reach. geoffry: the fundamental issue is does china want the rest of the world to own renminbi, to start owning china government bonds? they have not figured that out. if the rest of the world owns it, they can sell it. will that kind of volatility, which china is not used to, will they welcome that? we are heading toward a multipolar world. the dollar will be around for some time. renminbi, how does this swing after the election depending on the outcome or what the exit polls tell us? how quickly can china and renminbi become a true reserve currency? geoffry: the knee-jerk reaction is if trump surprises, renminbi long will be taken off. maybe it is a good entry-level. matter what the outcome of this election is, is about focusing on the internal economy, domestic demand. that is where the difference will be made. years,e next 5-15 renminbi usage, ownership of chinese assets and

tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york and london, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. with equity futures nicely positive, we've got to bookend of monday the hope with the brutal reality of the covid statistics in america this friday morning. tomto see the market levels after

tom! we love tom! they injure the heat and very public disapproval. tom! e the heat and very public disapprovallj tom! they injure the heat and very public disapproval. i feel sorry for you! if we lose the election we are going to lose our way of life. we won't be free. we came across chris smith at a trump valley in tucson last month. and after touching down in philadelphia on election eve, we chatted with debbie smith, a democrat who voted forjoe biden. as the election draws to a close, she says america cannot tackle its most pressing problems without unity. our people need to get back to work. we need to heal this country. so, at the end of the day, it is going to come down to, we need to recover from the coronavirus. people have lost sight of what is happening. for some republicans, the coronavirus isn't the main election issue. ask chris smith. you think it is fraud? we don't go to bed at ten, 11, 12 o'clock at night, two in the morning, leading all the keys to swing states in wake up at seven o'clock in the morning and suddenly they found hundreds of

tom. tom and i met in the village here at redondo beach several times, and he's just a wonderful writer. but anyway, as i told you many times, my great game is -- my migrates for his baseball and the dodgers. i love the dodgers. i grew up a yankee fan, this is a big deal. i kid from new york, this is almost sacrilegious, a kid from new york, at the california and becoming a dodger fan actually becoming -- in my neighborhood where i grew up you either hated the yankees and loved the dodgers or your loved the dodgers and come you know, you loved the yankees and hated the dodgers. between the two blocks, there was a dodger fans and a yankee fans, and i was a yankee fan, mickey mantle, roger maris. i know the whole team. i know every position. and if you're a a fan, if you really love your sport you will know every one of them. you will know everything about them. you will leave that sport. basketball, i'm very aware of football, very a wear i love to watch basketball. very proud, very proud of the lakers this year. they are just zooming along and i hope they go all the way. it's baseball, baseball. even in this limited season i continue to be an avid fan. i must say, tom baseball is my greatest love of all. >> well, on that note we will close, send it back to gilbert. maybe we can get mookie betts to join us next time when have conversation. >> mookie is incredible. isn't he? .. >> we're going all the way. >> i agree. thank you, thank you we appreciate it. >> thank you so much for everything. thank you, too, both of you. we really appreciate it. it's a great, great conversation and don't forget, you can buy david's book here, "wheels of courage" click on the button to the bottom and it will take you to the website. if you want to scroll up in the chat on the side at one point, tomorrow did mention the anniversary of one fourth july. and i linked that in there as well, just so you know. because we enjoyed a lot of what he had to say tonight and you can get the full book there and we ask you in general, we know folks here, you made the effort to support independent book stores by tuning in tonight. you know, we continue to ask for your help during this

tom: tom keene in new york. good morning to you. i don't want to throw a brick in the discussion, but let's throw a brick in the discussion. when you look at the acceleration of yen strength, what does that signal? jim: so i was listening to what you are saying about that earlier and actually, i have been keeping informed by bloomberg radio the last two days. i was laughing to myself when i heard you guys getting all excited about the moves in the dollar yesterday. thehaving been around foreign for 40 years, i am like, -- foreign-exchange for 40 years, i am i, this is nothing. bring it back to a world where currency actually does not move. jim, i did the math last night with alan ruskin at deutsche bank. this isn't 1981, is it? tony: -- no it's not. i think what is going on here is lest thet perceiving fiscal stimulus, which commits easyed to an extremely monetary policy, combined that with a more cooperative further ring and the rest of the world -- and the rest of the world, it would all suggest an environment where the dollar should we can. that's pretty much what i would have thought. i'm not surprised to see the foreign-exchange market doing that yesterday. and i would not be surprised pending the hourly and daily set flow here that we are and train already a new fiscal policy framework and one that is consistent with a weaker dollar. the next issue before we know will be, at what level are the japanese and others going to try to's drop their currencies from strengthening? otherwise, dollar-yen is on course to go through 100 and the euro is going to go through 1.20. francine: i am looking at a great chart. i was going to ask you about china, but i wanted to talk to you about emerging markets as a whole. i am looking at a great chart on the bloomberg terminal which says emerging market looked to riskier assets, given what they know of the u.s. election so far. will that continue? jim: i think so, yes. if you look at the broad level of valuations and link it to the policy framework i have just said, unless there is, if i think of what kind upset this, i suppose a surprising, quick, and sizable uptick in u.s. inflation that forces the fed to behave very differently. --hout that, the emerging environment for so-called emerging-market equities is very good. it is the one part of the investment universe that is not particularly expensive from a valuation perspective, and now we have got the whole policy thrust going there favor as well, including how chinese policy is operating. jim o'neill thank you so much. coming up, one story in town as the vote continues. joe biden is narrowing the gap in pennsylvania. we will have a full breakdown of all the states that are still to report some of the vote counts, georgia, pennsylvania, nevada, arizona stone play. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> economic activity has continued to recover. joblessness has been especially lower for service jobs for women, african-americans, and hispanics. the economic dislocation has upended many lives and created great uncertainty about the future. the rise in covid-19 cases in the united states and abroad is particularly concerning. we expect to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these employment and inflation outcomes are achieved. the demand for loans is very low right now. companies are not borrowing. when i say we are not out of ammo, i am looking at a couple of our tools mainly. the asset purchase program, there is a number of dimensions in which we can adjust that, if we deem appropriate. right now, we like the job it is doing. i think we will have a stronger recovery if we can just at least get some more fiscal support, when it's appropriate, and a size that congress thinks it's appropriate. it supported to take a step back and let the institutions of democracy do their jobs. francine: jerome powell there, sang more fiscal and monetary support of course is needed. wavess we see the second also in the u.s., we will have a look at u.s. jobs and hiring dynamics. tom interesting, to say the least. we got the election returns coming in this morning. next, ambassador gardner, anthony gardner will join us. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ francine: bloomberg surveillance. tom and francine with the u.s. election special. it is 4:20 in new york, and we need to look at state-by-state the ones that could flip, the ones that -- we spent a lot of time looking at georgia. georgia we understand, through certain counts of the associated press, could have flipped. we have all become experts, about the counties, and the state of georgia. clayton county has just updated its totals, giving the former vice president a narrow lead in georgia. we have not closed it. there could be recounts. a number of things are still wide open, but this feels significant because it is something that the markets are looking at. i don't know what's priced in. if they are pricing in a biden presidency because he has the slightly upper edge. the georgia news is extremely important.

tom: tom keene in new york. thank you so much for joining us. i am very curious as to what your vaccine will cost, and that it is a -- virus based versus the fancy genetic vaccines. do you have any idea of the range that your vaccine will be distributed and what the price will be? pascal: the important point here is that we have committed to distribute this vaccine at no profit for the duration of the pandemic period, each means hundreds of millions of doses that have been ordered already, regardless of when they are delivered, would be supplied at no profit, and it will be four dollars to five dollars out the door depending on where the vaccine is manufactured. the variation is simply due to the variation of cost structure. tomi think this is a huge mystery, and i was speaking with alex morales about it on our pharmaceutical team. what is so important here is for our audience to understand, we get a vaccine, and when we'll we would be that when will we be in our doctor's offices? do you have any sense of that timeline? data -- we clinical hope it will be the case that it will be positive, and we expect the data by the end of this year. government, not ourselves, but regulators. they review the data quickly, and i'm sure you have seen that many of those regulators around the world have announced they started his so-called running review of our data, which means they look to the data, they submit to them, and on that basis day should be able to make a determination very quickly. so we would hope that vaccinations large-scale would be possible starting in january next year, possibly even december. francine: does the u.s. election and who gets into the white house actually change the speed of approval or the spe

tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." election 2020 -- i can't believe i'm saying that on monday. tom keene in new york, francine lacqua in london. 4.20 five. up make it a 5% move. -- -- 4.25, make it a 5% move. wrigley dayco joins us -- gregory daco joins us. gregory daco, as simply as i can, where is this economy right now? is it truly under a 1% gdp economy? potentially, yes. unfortunately, after a very strong rebound post the initial phase of the covid crisis, we are seeing slowing momentum going into the end of the year. that is really concerning because now that we are past the elections, there is going to be renewed focus on economic fundamentals and health fundamentals, and both are quite disappointing. more so as we approach the new year. tomneed something here like stimulus. we are going to think -- i think a lot of people agree. ken rogoff was on in the heat of election 2020 saying stimulus now, great. we have stimulus into the inauguration, or does it have to until february? gregory: i think you have to stimulate the economy now, because if the economy is running low on fiscal aid and economic momentum in the form of unemployment and income is slowing, it means that people will spend less as we approach the end of the year. we know this is a crucial period for the u.s. economy because we are seeing the slower momentum, we expect growth in terms of the gdp -- 1% in simple terms, and we are still quite deep in the hole both in terms of economic output and in terms of employment. we do need a fiscal stimulus to divide incomes to households, to support businesses, and to support state and local government. i have seen quite a large hit to the budgets. francine: gregory, there is much talk about a friendship between mitch mc

tom keene. lisa: anyone looking for a reason behind the triple leveraged all-cash fund only has to look back to 1991, the scars for tom keene. jonathan: alongside tomnd lisa brown what -- and lisa brehm what's -- and lisa abram owicz, i'm jonathan vera. tom, you know i have to go. it is the sequencing of the programming. [laughter] herding cats. that is on my resume. futures -13, down 0.3%. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president trump suffered two setbacks as he tried to claim victory in the state of arizona. the state attorney general told foxbusiness it was highly unlikely the president would catch up when remaining ballots are counted. he also said he has had no evidence of widespread fraud the trump campaign has alleged. president-elect joe biden has stopped his transistor ash has stocked his transition team -- has stopped his transition team with experts and obama administration officials. still, liberals are concerned about the number of tech executives biden has included. the british economy expanded the most on record in the third quarter. growth surged 15.5% after falling almost 20% in the second

tom, what about that? >> tom: lawrence, thanks. as the only white man on the show i see you have victimized me. [laughter] >> tom making me talk about president obama. >> lawrence: i have to do it to you. first day back, brother. >> tom: everyone is singing their same tunes. i think we can expect that from president obama. i agree with everyone on the panel today including jessica, because i think that if democrats do -- i hope that they focus on the idea that the senate, winning over the senate will give joe biden a blank check to do what the left wants. and if they focus on that, they think it's going to make him win. it's going to make him lose. i hope they do focus on that. it will be about the senate. people are very aware. i agree with the doctor. it is a center right country and right, right country down there in georgia. i think both of these republicans are going to get elected. >> lawrence: i have got to tell you i wish democrats would focus on the issues that matter to voters. you can't just say white males feel like they're being victimized and not provide a response to that instead they have decided

>> yeah -- of course tom -- tom reid was a little before my time, but you know, i mean, so reid's problem was, was with the administration. right? disagreement about policy. whereas boehner seems to me in some ways was similar. that is the party was divided about policy, but seemed to be a bit more of an inside baseball type of thing. you know, i don't -- i wasn't on the hill at the time. so i don't know if boehner could have survived, but it does strike me he didn't want to survive and that was probably, probably good enough. actually i don't have a good, i don't have a good aens nswer tot question. >> and the speaker -- [ inaudible ]. >> question on clay being elected spooker as a freshman. yes. elected speaker very first dap he was a member of the house. keep in mind he had been speaker of the kentucky legislature and had been a u.s. senator a couple times. wasn't exactly a neophyte. likewise, pennington was elected speaker in his first term as well. although pennington had been the governor of new jersey and, in fact, i didn't get into the details, but, although he was a neophyte in t

tom. lisa: tom, are you still there? [laughter] tom: if it is bond talk, i check out. : you brought it up. you can't bring it up and then check out. tom: i brought it up because you two are actually really smart at this. jon, i remember when a high-yield piece under 8% was suspect. i mean, come on. jonathan: how do you expect a marketing discount risk when it has a price-sensitive buyer? tom: i agree, it is artificial. how does lisa hornby structure a portfolio with a five year vision with this elephant in the room? lisa: but the fed is not going to backstop solvency. at a certain point, the fed will step away. at what point will that happen? jonathan: will it? lisa: they are not going to bail them out of bankruptcy? jonathan: no, i don't think they are, but i don't think that that is ever going to step away from the credit market. the ecb still going for it. the boj is buying etf equities. that's where the boj has been for the last several years. tom: italy, negative yields. jonathan: there you go. coming up on this program, dr. jonathan quick of the rockefeller founda

tom, tom fitton, you pointed out in our discussions that these legislatures are republican-controlled. who can take that message to them, and precisely how likely is it that they would be receptive to a clean slate of electors whole represent, say, the state of pennsylvania? that's e a republican legislature, and stand up for the integrity of elections that support the president? >> well, you know, the focus from the media and activists and regular voters or and citizens need to be brought to bear here. certainly, the information we're learning from campaign activists on the ground, independent journalists like john solomon, the work of judicial watch should be also brought to bear. i mean, we know, we knew going into this election in the pennsylvania, lou, there were 800,000 extra names on the rolls of pennsylvania. nevada county had 154,000 inactive names on the rolls. clark county, nevada, i mean. so we've got this problem of dirty election rolls, mailing and balloting being allowed to draw from -- lou: and, apparently, a republican, and a republican party that doesn't demand that those rolls be cleaned up. i mean, that that's crazy. could you put up that graphic again, please? folks, i want everybody to see what they're looking at because this is really very important, what tom'sut. the control of both chambers of the legislature in these states that are critical right now in deciding who the next president will be. michigan, wisconsin, arizona, pennsylvania, north carolina, georgia. they must play a role in this to preserve the integrity just as tom fitton is urging. and, is sidney powell, what you're breaking here tonight is extraordinary as well. we've got to go, we're at that point. but thank you both for everything you're doing for the country and for the president. we appreciate it. thanks so much. >>> up next, how evangelical voters can help in the fight for a fair election. they'd better help quick. we're joined by pastor robert jeffress right after this quick break. a lot of quickness here. stay with us. ♪ ♪ i feel like we're forgetting something. let me check. xfinity home gives you peace of mind from anywhere with professionally monitored home security built around you. no, i think we're good. good. so when you're away, you don't have to worry. the

know you were smirking when tom outlied the three winning scenarios because every scenario is a winning scenario for the s&p, apparently. >> well, never smirking at tom tom is certainly taking a glass half-full approach to three scenarios that i think the market has a lot of anxiety, yes, but the market has reason for a lot of anxiety and a lot of dysfunction and valuations that are not terribly cheap in an economy that yeah i know we had 32 percent gdp and there's a reason why this week we also have a payroll number, we have the fed, and we have other things the market can focus on which goes back to fundamentals i think the parts of the rally today, so our market conversation, a rebound in housing, i think, is important and housing related trades because i think that is something that continues into the second part. notice oil oil has priced in the fact that basically a blue wave and yet today it acted very different. i think there's good news in oil, especially on the expectation the surprise might be something not priced in oil. >> coming up, jackpot in trade, one big bang said roll the dice on one casino. and first action on paypal the call is under

tom tom has made this kind of all statistics and they have a number of days home much more time how to invest on your daily commute and role in this number is about 30 percent of what it means on the ideal case at midnight your rifle 20 minutes until. class 30 percent so in a sense isn't something ballpoints it's minutes. as a local i had expected that she lay to be longer than the 30 percent calculated by setting. it certainly was a lot longer on april 12th 1919 a day that saw an estimated 18000000 cars driving between east and west germany. it was the 1st easter weekend after the fall of the berlin wall and a record breaking one. nowadays berlin is the biggest city in reunified germany by a. pretty big margin. but in terms of better traffic a brilliant barely registers on the international scale let's look at the top 3 worldwide. in mobile chat drivers spend an average of 230 hours a year in traffic jams and that's almost 10 days. that might be one reason why the city has a better education for road rage. in 2nd spot bangalore in 2019 drivers in the indian city typically lost 243 hou

check out this data on traffic levels in beijing from tom tom it shows that this week's traffic patternsstion are pretty much exactly the same as they were a year ago. in some cases, maybe even higher in other words, traffic is 100% back to pre-covid levels hat it was a the year ago for some on the ground insight, we send to eunice yoon in beijing which provides us amazing reporting and just a window into life, literally a window behind you, we can see traffic. mine, i mean i remember nobody on the road, now we see over your shoulder it is full. when you live your life every day, does it feel like with, you know, certain things, masks or whatever it might be, that life is sort of back to normal? >> yeah, definitely it is back to normal in terms of the level of activity. traffic jams are back, today we went out and shot the traffic just so that you get a sense of what it looked like today. even though it is raining, there are a lot of cars. and then also the restaurants, if you go into the restaurant, a lot of people are more relarela. people still wear mask, they are social distancing, b

thank you tom . tom: thank you candidate. it. kennedy: now for us, the candidates have been very civil and respectful . i'm just getting. name-calling. watch this. >> by the way today he said. joe biden: i think he said perfect physical specimen. maybe that is why he thought i was able to run off $70000, on taxes because he needed special haircare. pres. donald trump: he was a laughingstock all over washington. and so was the chief of staff said he was absolutely terrible. they had a terrible visit job. see tip divided montage, this was really entertaining. so is the final few days, will they be without the president. showing off some sweet moves. watch this. ♪ kennedy: now. he'll watch willie go right back into the white house moment . we've got the senior editor and author of the art of donald . chris bickford is here c along with democrat and fox news contributor. and senior editor and author, fantastic book. robbie prayed, everyone. guest: high. kennedy: you guys are so cute. chris i will start with you. if trump loses, torn

tom. it is wonderful book i want to encourage everyone to read it by multiple copies. i know that will make tom very happy. >> thank you, jeremy. great questions. >> wow, those are some excellent points and i appreciate very much what he said about the book intense it is probably the highest praise you can give an author, that you got them to think about something. i know it is one of the things i hope to do in the books is get people to think about the subject. on the abuse of power by the executive, well, yes. it -- kissinger is one of these figures that in a way is his own concern about leaks, that's one of his driving net that encouraged richard nixon on a path he probably would've gone on anyway, to get the plummer's, and kissinger had a connection through some of the people that worked on his staff. one of them has written a fascinating dissertation, i encourage people to look at up. i think, i think kissinger, it is where kissinger both being political and non political paid off. in a way, the image and shape, the president doesn't talk about domestic politics, was something that the med

tom. so, tom, thank you for the time. you are a true gentleman. one of the great people of this city and i'm going to be using you as a resource for many years to come. thank you, tom. >> i wantinged to express my gratitude for your many years of service for this community that we love so much . thank you so much. >> thank you. >> commissioner mozzola. >> tom, i've known you many years. i was lucky to get to work with you on this commission and i all you did for the commission and the city. in that capacity. but more importantly, you are a voice for the workers out there and always have been on this board and that is an important factor because those are the people on the ground doing all the work. and you handled that gracefully and took their -- took their -- their grievances or accoladess to the board and let us all know what they were feeling. you came from those ranks and worked out there for years in a bunch of different capacities including shaw steward and supervisor, but your -- your knowledge and commitment is second to none. so i praoernlts everything you've done for the labour movement and all the workers out in the maintenance yard at rec and park. so,

tom del baccaro, thanks for joining us. good to see you. >> all right. take care. elizabeth: coming up, retired i.c.e. acting director tom homan with more on how violent drug cartels continue to hammer away at the u.s. border. they're doing it right now. we'll talk to him about what he thinks about how joe biden would handle these increasingly dangerous criminal syndicates. that story next. >> every place they put a border barrier and a border wall it has resulted in decreased illegal immigration and decreased drug flow. this is the wallboarder patrol asked for. experts on drugs asked for it. given what they had wanted. president biden should do research before he make as reversal on the decision. moments that define you. and drive you. to achieve even more. so, celebrate every one. because success isn't just about where you want to get to. it's also about how you get there the all new 2021 cadillac escalade. never stop arriving. it's also about how you get there we do things differently and aother money managers, don't understand why. because our way works great for us! but not for your clients. that's why we're a fiduciary, obligated to put clients first. so, what do you provide? cookie cutter portfolios? nope. we tailor portfolios to our client's needs. but you do sell investments that earn you high commissions, right? we don't have those. so, what's in it for you? our fees are structured so we do better when our clients do better. at fisher investments we're clearly different. it's time for aerotrainer, with your weight and health? a more effective total body fitness solution. (announcer) aerotrainer's ergodynamic design and four patented air chambers create maximum muscle activation for better results in less time, all while maintaining safe, correct form and allows for over 20 exercises. do the aerotrainer super crunch. the pre-stretch works your abs even harder, engaging the entire core. then it's the back extension, super rock, and lower back traction stretch to take the pressure off your spine and stretch muscles. planks are the ultimate total body exercise. build your upper body with pushups. work your lower body with the aerosquat. the aerotrainer is tested to support over 500 pounds. it inflates and deflates in less than 30 seconds using the electric pump. head to aerotrainer.com now. now it's your turn to lose weight, look great, and be healthy. get off the floor and get on the aerotrainer. go to aerotrainer.com, that's a-e-r-o-trainer.com. elizabeth: okay, with me now is retired i.c.e. acting director tomyou on. we always love having you on. okay we know drug cartels are getting increasingly violent hammering away at the border. how would a biden administration handle this? >> if i can just for a second, liz, on the sound bite you played before the commercial you heard me say president biden. what i said a president biden needs to look at the data. make it clear. he is not our president. he is not president biden, the sound bite lost a couple of my words. i want to make that clear. i support the president and his lawsuit. i want to say that off the get-go. i said many times, president trump has had unprecedented success on the border. you can't argue that. 80% decline of immigration. no president in my lifetime i worked for six. he has an agreement. mexico is doing more to secure the border than our own congress. immigration is down 80%. cartels are not making million of dollars, the same cartels that make millions off drugs. women are not and children are not dying. president trump is

tom? [laughter] tom: no i am not. can i look at the headline of the moment? jonathan: please do. tomwalmart right now with that headline from the ceo, and this really speaks to where we are going, the idea that new customer behavior will persist. headline.is the money jonathan: sticky might be the word you hear a lot more of. let's get some more price action this tuesday morning. a little bit of optimism over the last week. euphoria, maybe. futures decline. pull back a bit on the s&p 500. we advance on the nasdaq. treasuries did not participate in the moves yesterday, basically unchanged. a move of a basis point or so. we come in a basis point to 0.89%. euro-dollar, $1.1875. $41.48.wn to joining us to kick off program, mona mahajan, allianz global investors u.s. investment strategist. kit juckes says this market is unsustainable. do you share that? asa: i think the rotation part of this equity move is somewhat sustainable. we may get some volatility. we are still not through the toughest part of this virus and this pandemic. but beyond that, i think the incremental news we got this w

tom: that is on our list. lisa: do you mean you end -- you and vet bill? [laughter] jonathan: alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tomrry christmas. jonathan: from london and new york this morning -- tom: ♪ chestnuts roasting ♪ jonathan: tom keene with a christmas song. [laughter] carry on. tom: oh no. no. are you frustrated with your weight and health? it's time for aerotrainer, a more effective total body fitness solution. (announcer) aerotrainer's ergodynamic design and four patented air chambers create maximum muscle activation for better results in less time, all while maintaining safe, correct form and allows for over 20 exercises. do the aerotrainer super crunch. the pre-stretch works your abs even harder, engaging the entire core. then it's the back extension, super rock, and lower back traction stretch to take the pressure off your spine and stretch muscles. planks are the ultimate total body exercise. build your upper body with pushups. work your lower body with the aerosquat. the aerotrainer is tested to support over 500 pounds. it inflates and deflates in less than 30 seconds using the electric pump. head