but tom?always have an awful temper, they said. >> i was always afraid he was going to hurt her. always. always. >> why? what about him? >> his temper. >> you can't go from zero to 100 and think clearly. >> i think that he was just in a fit of rage. and he shot or. >> armed with the new information, the detective went back to talk to tom. and zeroed in on those scratches. officers had given him something clean to work so they could collect his bloody clothing. >> and you have scratches on your body. >> okay. >> do you see this, this is a shade cast. do you know how bad this hurts and it just. so when i'm sitting there, i do this off work and day. this is actually her blood, it comes off. see? oh my gosh, it's coming off. it's her blood. >> that's actually a scratch, okay? that's a scratch. >> still, the detective pressed him. he had motive an opportunity, she said. >> so when you went upstairs, you are arguing with there. and you know you are arguing with there. >> she was also reluctant to be

tom: i love it.th golub you are getting cognac and it is a splendid copper gold. jonathan: can you give me a price on that? tom: i can't get there right now. good morning, zurich. jonathan: we are going to force you to stay with us for a few more moments. futures up on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ♪ lisa m.: keep you up-to-date with news from around the world, i'm lisa mateo. the parent of google has become the latest tech giant to cut about 12,000 jobs. that is more than 6% of its workforce. sundar pichai says the cuts will affect jobs across the entire company. he takes responsibility for the decisions that led alphabet to this point. the biden administration is sending another major package of military hardware to ukraine. it includes 90 stryker armored personnel carriers, if t9 bradley fighting vehicles, and millions of rounds of ammunition. the package, valued at $2.5 billion. the u.s. and its allies are meeting today to discuss more eight. russia is trying to limit a plunge in budget revenue cau

tom: we get core pce this week? lisa: yes. tom: i didn't know that. we will talk much more about lessons learned from the world economic forum. marty patel is at all spring investments. the fears looseness to move from fixed income to equity. what is your idea on fixed income versus equity? >> we have been geared up on the equity side. rates were so low that we felt there was a potential to lose on the equity side. this year with see rates have come down so we think bounce are an ok bargain but nothing exceptional, when we see better opportunities on stocks. tom: how does the angst and particularly tech angst play into your core dividend growth or use of cash? margaret: i do think we will see more of and in fed -- more on stocks that do well there'd we have high stocks -- do well. we have high stocks, and especially if we see lou earnings is the general consensus. lisa: will tech still lead in whatever rally we see in equities you are expecting? margaret: i think tech will lead at certain sectors. semiconductor will lead although we have to make -- al

tom: it is true.torialize here, but i am in you'll diamond -- i am in -- china is going to roll over and die. they had a parted congress in november on a calendar date. let's fix covid and off we go. jonathan: i do not have to make a call so i am not going to make a call. every time we thought we knew what was going to happen, something else happens. we have had more than 400 basis points from the federal reserve. the ecb will keep going. you have the ramifications of that and then you layer on top china kicking back in. jonathan: -- tom: this is a bloomberg read moments ago. bloomberg reports that the three month libor, the benchmark you saw in 2008, we returned to that level. we are four point six, standard deviations on three months. that is a foundational statistic . jonathan: we will continue the conversation with david kelly coming up. >> keeping you up-to-date, i am lisa mateo. investors in the federal reserve will look closely at the u.s. consumer price index. the projected 5.7% increase would

[cheers and applause] ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ >> tom: all right, all right! it's me, tom shillue.ook at him tonight's guests! she put herself through college running moonshine. cohost of "the bottom line" on fox business, dagen mcdowell. [applause] he rides a bike and he's from philadelphia. yet, somehow he is still alive. ceo of electric bike technologies, jason kraft. [applause] she is an expert on politics, which for this show makes you unique. fox news correspondent, gillian turner. [applause] by night she is a popular tv personality. by day, he's a professional dog walker. fox news contributor, kat timpf. [applause] well, it's been a minute since we cleaned out the fridge, so before we get to some new stories, let's do this. ♪ ♪ >> announcer: greg's leftovers, mmm!" >> >> tom: it leftovers where i read recent jokes we didn't use. just like when greg does it come it's my first time reading these. here we go. during a recent jail interview, ghislaine max acclaimed jeffrey epstein was indeed murdered in his cell. she says she knows this because he never really liked to hang by h

tom: it's under debate. i don't know what the dynamic is but what's important is the market doesn't know what the dynamic is. the press conference tomorrow will not be a small item. jonathan: the market has been ahead of the projections of the imf. this is backed up by the data out of china this morning. lisa: it's also backed up by the data of the european union where you see growth coming in better than expected but it's not active by earnings in the u.s. there is a divergent story in the currency move you've seen but with china and the euro doing really well. tom: the united kingdom is flat on their back. francis went to a positive statistic. in the last 24 hours, the idea of the brexit affect away from covid in the politics, they are a footnote. they say the gdp slowed and was due to tottenham. it's a brexit effect. jonathan: it's more than that, we had to have tighter fiscal and monetary policy. there is a downgrade from the previous view on the imf. china is an upgrade for obvious reasons. tom: what di

tom: and mr.ladelphia fed business outlook statistic but after the empire disaster of buffalo new york, i have to be looking at mr. harker's landing to see what the spirit is. jonathan: i think if you are in risk management mode you move away from 50 and that's quickly become the consensus. has the destination changed for them? i hear 25 but also still here five on fed funds and ultimately the data will dictate whether they get there or not. i think they are throwing the towel in the commitment. tom: how not to get to 25 and 50, get it done. let's go, move quicker and then stop. jonathan: we know why they keep talking about five, petrified of making the same mistakes and backing away to early. they are petrified by history. that is what you hear from others. tom: this is the asymmetric risk. i don't think we need to talk about japan now it's a quiet day there but this is the asymmetric inking of fed officials, central bank officials and i'm going to say that comes over to the asymmetric mysteries

tom: up 40%.st in the 14 times over the year we called not for the death of apple but the stumble of apple, the heart of the matter is new product. the fan boys looking for the new product. do they need new product? or do they just need to sell these? lisa: dan ives talks about the stability of the iphone sales but apple is cutting back on orders around max, ipads, and airpods over a softer consumer backdrop. jonathan: i think that contributed to the losses we had in yesterday's session. tom: no question about it. the surveys are statistically valid in counting the lost number of airpods in the house. [laughter] try to get to double digits. jonathan: how many have you lost? tom: under the couch it has to be four. jonathan: you can find the case. tom: you bring the case in -- jonathan: and they will give you a spare? tom: and they will give you a spare. jonathan: i did not know that. tom: i did not either. jonathan: how much do they charge? tom: a lot. they are ridiculous. i don't have them. jonath

tom, crude up. tom: big deal. crude is a big deal.hing against it is a china opening and some enthusiasm. the feeling i get from the $100 barrel crew, when it goes, it is going to go. we just do not know where it is. it later this year, that is our call. lisa: we were talking about where the fed is gaining out rates. i have to wonder how much of the narrative is going to change if we get another pop in energy prices. his jobs data ahead of the claims this morning. i keep going back to this. i keep thinking about what you said yesterday. when i took a look at a longer term view of jobless claims to see how distorted things were during the pandemic. and has flatlined on any scale that you look like -- look at in terms of the number of people getting unemployment benefits. one does that start to pick up? people are saying it will happen. the house of representatives continue with their deliberations. they have been a joined to avoid a public seven defeat. they are going to reestablish and they cannot do anything until they have a speaker

tom: tom: -- tom: we have been looking at different names in davos at wealth management. can morgan stanley wealth success be relegated -- replicated? devin: it is going to be tough. morgan stanley made tough decisions a decade ago coming out of the financial situation to change the model. they ran full speed into wealth management's and with the smith barney acquisition, that was transformational. now there is a lot of scale and that will be tough to stick their toe in and do that. tom: you right where i want to go, which is the idea of scale. does mr. solomon have scale at goldman sachs? that seems to be under discussion. devin: big debate is around what is happening in consumer business. we have been more constructive. i think goldman should continue to think about how they evolve and what the bank should look like over the next 20 years. sometimes critics want instant gratification over the next one or two, but they are coming from essentially a small base consumer. they have had a wealth management business for a long time. there is room for them to scale back. oppor

tom: a huge lesson here.o kolanovich approaches this comparative thinking -- binky chadha. marco is trying to be more abrupt and stochastic. lisa: a change on the ground and he has changed in the opposite direction. it is fascinating to me. tom: futures at -32. good morning. lisa: keeping you up to date with news around the world, i am lisa mateo. the u.s. and germany have overcome a disagreement and agreed to give their main battle tanks to ukraine. germany confirmed today it will send 14 of its leopard tanks to ukraine and eventually there will be more. the administration is inspected to announce as soon as today it will offer ukraine the m1 abrams tank. in china, lunar new year travel and movie box offices are showing signs of recovery. in the first four days of the holiday the number of trips was over last year. the number of movie tickets sold was higher in 2019 before the pandemic. google says the u.s. justice department is doubling down on a flawed argument by suing the company on antitrust grounds. ei

it's a reversal of what we tom: tom: saw from last year. we will talk in a global basis in a moment. i will go back to ralph ankum who was with us and he said there was a bottom in october and that's a lonely view. lisa: i like how you put technical analysis in its pit -- in its place which is one piece of the puzzle. the momentum, how does that fly in the face of doom and gloom? there is temporary optimism that people have. tom: you can see the economics and the fed babbled through what you see in the charts. i will say it's a boring january screen and futures are at negative 80 but there is lots of incongruent teas because we are coming out of a pandemic, china is opening and there is massive uncertainty around the october bottom. lisa: european economic data has come through to a surprising upside. in the u.s., it's the opposite, it's been disappointing on the margins. you start to see some weakening especially with leading indicators. when can you expect divergence in europe outperforming at a time when people are under invested? will t

tom: that's good. two teams, then up north there is another team, notre dame cathedral or something like that. boiler up is it still the west, i think. the west of indiana. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ lisa: keeping you up-to-date with the first word, i'm lisa mateo. kevin mccarthy is calling on democrats to engage in talks over raising the federal debt ceiling. republicans, i'm control of the house, have an demanding steep spending cuts. president biden wants it raised without conditions. that raises concerns of a u.s. payment default. the bank of japan gave investors a moderate jolt yesterday and today. the central bank cap its policy settings unchanged, maintaining its negative interest rate and keeping a trading band for 10 year bonds. there have been some speculation that the boj would change its policy. amazon is set to kick off another round of job cuts. the company announced this month it was laying off more than 18,000 employees among its corporate ranks. the latest round is set to begin tod

tom: you have to see it. richard: i have been kind of busy, tom.f those issues, the problems the northern island, brexit. one of the many consequences of brexit, it has reintroduced friction into northern ireland. northern island went through three decades of troubles. i do not think now it is inconceivable we could see some sort of reintroduction. we are seeing greater friction there. by the way, given what we are talking about this morning, it is a warning for this country. i am not worried about a civil war. i am worried about an american version of the troubles where we have politically inspired violence from around the country. no one should think january 6 is a one-off. you've got a big business audience on this show. besides inking about esg, di, businesses ought to be thinking about, what can we do to promote american democracy? lisa: before we let you go, you were talking about social media and involvement there. there is a push to ban tiktok and part of chinese ownership. do you think restricting social media is the answer? richard: it is

tom: yes. the risk think a lot of people have and there are people that say we are long ways from that. i would point out to your scenarios i am less worried about 25 and 50 and all of that. the length of time that we stay at a certain level and this harkens back. we are not saying happy new year today? jonathan: no, we are done. tom: -- said look, inflation is falling dramatically. that is from the former vice chairman of the said and that is the metric we have to look at. jonathan: we have touched on the debate coming into 2023. many people sitting trying to price in the process -- prospect of rate cuts. tom: have to be careful but to me, it is all in excess. jonathan: can you push it out? tom: who was good at this was geithner her. he was very good saying all we are going to do is push this thing out. jonathan: you know who is good at this? mike schumacher. 50 minutes away. equity futures up. from new york this monday morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ lisa: results president is bowing to prosecu

it is going to be challenged for the next couple of weeks tom: tom:. dividend growth? >> that's part of it. we are very defensive minded right now, consumer staples, health care and energy continues -- it's the pin yada with waves of emotion and ticks in the oil price but at the end of the day, even if we dip into a recession, energy is 5% of the index weight and will account for 9% of the earnings this year. jonathan: you don't think tech can retain leadership? >> in the short-term it can but in the long term, the fact is, the investment public still owns too much fang. jonathan: you are a student of market history and we are leaning on getting a market low before the recession. >> in a nutshell, absolutely. we have to take it from the jump up point that everything we have seen in the last three years has very little if any historical precedent but this is one of these things, the entirety of 2022, we were asked when is the capitulation and the emotion? it's coming. jonathan: stick around and we'll talk about europe as well. the number one thing you needed is a meteor

tom. tom: laura wright, thank you. let's check in on some of the movers for you.he world's largest drinks maker, down 3.4%. this is on concerns around the top run they beat their last quarter results, but it is around concerns of a slowdown in the north america part of their business. analysts say that could be a drag for the rest of the year and the stock is down. that is putting the rest of that sector down as well. st micro came out with a solid beat and you can see the stock is rallying on the back of that. the guidance beat the average analyst estimates. they're not forward is well above the estimates of $3.8 billion. volvo, the truck company, has had earnings with a miss. there's supply chain pressures continue into 2023, currently down three point -- 320%. last week's wall street mayhem was triggered by human error. more details on how that unfolded. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: welcome back to the open. 53 minutes into your european trading day. european stocks are up about 0.5%. chinese tech stocks listed in the jurisdiction rallying more than 4%, enthusiasm

jobless claims, hold onto your hat, tom. tom: i'm holding.se are not the droids we looking for. that is revised down. tom: folks, i'm going to sell this to you. we have a busy half-hour. we are coming to you without commercial interruption this 30 minutes or so. sonali basak will be with us. after that, mckee and i will grill on the stunning jobless claims numbers. it go back to the four-week moving average. dovetail claims right now into a 2.9% gdp statistic. i'm worried. it is terrible. mike: you get to the breakdown on gdp, but at this point it tells you the economy in the fourth quarter was reasonably strong, and the economy, the labor market economy is still strong right now. but there are reasons for that. stay tuned, as tom says. a couple more numbers here. 5.6% is the durable goods orders increase in december. that is up from a -1.7%, so that is good. but transportation down. we know boeing had a poor quarter, so that probably has had a major impact. capital goods orders, this is what goes into gdp directly, down .2%. shipments were d

tom: why should they? the same thing again and again at the market is not responding to it the same way it was. tom: there will be fed speak and when is the fed meeting? february 1? jonathan: the end of this month. tom: we are going to move on into but 5%ish range and that keeps the show going. one of the great supporters of what we do is kathy jones, fixed income strategist at charles schwab. let me cut to the chase. is this the year to clip a coupon? or can i find total return? kathy: i think you will get both. you will get some sort of return. we have been adjusting expanding yields around 4% and we anticipate capital gain going forward. but you have to look at medium-term and longer-term durations to get that. the shorter-term is rich compared to where the fed wants to go. but when you look at longer-term yields, that is where you have the room for that capital appreciation. the tighter the fed is -- and this is something we have been talking about a long time -- the more it presses down long-term infl

tom? tom: thank you very much indeed.et back to the banking sector and the question around pay and bonuses. credit suisse will pay senior bankers and upfront cash award. the bank intends to incentivize staff to stick around as it undergoes a broad restructuring. >> clearly last year was a tougher year than the year before. it is a cyclical business and the conversation will continue to follow that trend. >> let's bring in charlie wells for more on this. will the incentive scheme actually work to hold onto that talent? >> not necessarily. credit suisse offered a similar bonus last year and they still saw a significant stream of departures. credits we set a very difficult 2022. the chairman said it was a horrifying year. this is a difficult calculus for bankers to make. do they take the short term cash infusion or do they try to go to a different employer. there are still jobs out there. hsbc is actually sending recruiters to other banks that have been laid off. tom: we have had a lot of news come through from the banks. gi

anneka: good morning, tom. a two prong effect, you have easing supply chains which is massively important for the easing inflation story. on the other hand, you are lifting the lid on one of the world's largest drivers. we have had a global inflationary problem without anticipation of one of the world's largest demand drivers. we know the reopening story of china will be complicated, bumpy as we have seen so far. very hard to project. tom: how constrained will officials be in beijing when it comes to stimulus, as they reopen? we were speaking to aberdeen, said they will not go back to the growth at all costs model. anneka: it is remarkable because china is not a nation that would be missing so largely on its growth forecasts, so that they were willing to take the pain and not do what many other nations have done, massive stimulus, it is a telling sign. when we think about global growth, we should consider global growth without the reliance of the growth factor of china, which is new for us in the last decade. t

tom. tom: laura wright in london. coming up, strike action in the u.k. from the public to the private sector. we are live at amazon's warehouse in the english midlands. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> is the u.k. leveling up? the data suggests not. in 2019, the conservative party won an election, promising to level up written -- britain. that is to close the gap with the richer region of london on the southeast. bloomberg is tracking the progress of leveling up against the government has us on metrics, which include measures like pay, productivity, and well-being. the picture is getting worse. since 2019, 77 percent of constituencies have fallen further behind london and southeast. in the so-called redwall streets , the former industrial heartland swung from neighbor the conservative at the last election 97% are losing ground. and these are direct levers that the government could be -- to reduce regional equality, but it is not. in transport, london and southeast received 105 pounds of spending per head at the last count. -- 905 pounds of spending

>> it means a lot, tom.ink about what japan has done over a long period of time much more than what we have had in europe and the u.s. first of all the carry trade's that built up over the best part of a decade or longer could be unwound and it could lead to fixed income markets having a tightening therefore it's not clear how reassessment will do well if they were to suddenly abandon yield curve control. how does a local market and a look? tom: right. >> that is a significant day. these shock scenarios you get so many market reaction that it feeds through to u.s. treasury. one of the largest holders outside of america is japan. how will do treasuries handle japanese having tighter conditions having yields in japan? making it less attractive. the answer is it will be to quite big sales i think. tom: bent over at number talks about china exporting disinflation when you work through the dynamics. if we work through the dynamics through the experiment does a much larger, healthier japan export disinflation or t

tom: i agree.hat is fascinating to me, and it could be any chart, everything is sort of up as a general statement. the answer is, what is the breakout? what is the catalyst to leap up? the one thing i can come up with is, i have too many people sitting on my left modeling out 3% inflation. and i find that just -- we are not there yet, and they are saying we are going to get there. lisa: and some people being more aggressive, saying we are going to get down to 2%. next week the tech earnings are going to be key. not only with what they are seeing on the ground, the bifurcation, until on one side and apple on the other. they are doing very different pictures. even taiwan semi conductor are doing better than good, with intel flat on its back. how much does tech give us a sense of what is coming up and they ongoing dependence on china? tom: a lot of people are riding on apple as the bellwether next week. it has got to be. it is the biggest stock in the solar system. i know jim over at citigroup paints

this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: tom: welcome back to the open.e 30 minutes into the european trading day. the greenback kicks off the week lower, though it has turned around in the last few minutes. chinese shares jumped and jgb yields peers the boj ceiling again before wednesday's policy decision. eu and uk negotiators speak about fixing a post-brexit trading arrangement for northern ireland. plus, we will have coverage of the world economic forum in davos, and we are taking off the week with an exclusive conversation with the ceo of the qatar investment authority. that important interview coming up in the next few minutes. let's check in on markets. the european benchmark currently up .2%, paring earlier strength but continuing to build on what has been a record start of the year. the dax is gaining 24 points, and in the u.k. the ftse 100 up .1%, basic resources weighing a little bit as iron ore is down little over 4% on speculation that chinese officials will curb pricing. let's switch it over and see how things are playing out across these se

tom: thanks to tom for selling for weighing in on that. would begin strong with the federal reserve system. thrilled that randy crosser can join us. going to go steve lebanon here. what a tour de force he has had just a pole in the social aspect of where we are. i want you to explain how blind we are on this jobs report, how blind we are on the american labor economy because the overlay of technology. do we actually know a job economy when we see it? or are we just completely blind off the pandemic given the modern technology? >> certainly blind but i don't want to go so far and say that everything is completely unprecedented. obviously things are a little different then the typically are. we have had this calling up her strength in the labor market what's amazing is the fed has continued to raise rates, continue to tighten monitoring policy. we have seen the housing market start to turn down, we have seen a lot of tumult in the private and public equity markets. we haven't seen a cracked. my guess is when it happens is going to happen qui

tom: tom metcalf with important context on the credit suisse story.ve some lines crossing around the defense minister of germany, and the nato secretary-general meeting in berlin. these are live pictures. that is the german defense minister on screen now. the germans are under immense pressure to allow countries like poland to start moving some of their leopard tanks into ukraine, if not give a full green light to german exports of the tank. that pressure is coming from washington and kyiv, and close allies like the u.k. i do not know if we will listen in but these are live pictures. an important geopolitical questions for the germans on whether or not they are prepared to allow leopard tanks to move into ukraine. francine: coming up, we are live from the conference in canada. one of the most formidable female chief executives. that interview is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: welcome back to the open, 42 minutes into the european trading day. the ftse is seeing a bit of pressure due to a bit of investors worrying over the budget deficit, it trip

tom: multiple pivots.nyone who wants to get caught up, i recommend sofia's weekly tweet thread on a friday afternoon where she sums up the latest. let's get banking use, goldman sachs is embarking on one of its biggest rounds of job cuts, planning to cut about 3200 positions just this week. more than a third will likely be from within its core trading and banking units. for more, we are joined by finance reporter tom metcalf, which areas are most likely affected? >> it will be pretty sweeping, this is six to 7% of their total workforce. about a third will be in banking and trading, those are core divisions, this is not just back-office. it really explains that goldman are trying to cut their costs, and they are not hanging around, this is more extreme than other banks. francine: have we ever seen something of this scale at goldman? >> we have to go back to 2008 to see something of this scale, where it is something like 10% of workforce. that gives you a sense of where they are. it is the same at every bank

tom: and j.p. morgan suggesting of inflation is softer, it could push this bear market rally higher. we continue to assess the implications, jeffrey gundlach saying you need to look at the bond market rather than listen to the fed when it comes to the trajectory for rate hikes. but maybe investors are getting too complacent about inflation once again. markets expecting inflation comes down to 2.5 percent next year. markets opening up .1% in the u.k., in france, the cac 40 getting 11 points as we brace for the potential of industrial action next week. and the spanish ibex range bound. cross assets, you had a decent rally in u.s. equities yesterday on expectations that maybe the cpi print thursday is going to come in software. expectations for around 6.5% after plus 7% for the month of november, futures pointing lower .1%. a little profit-taking, it is the inflation print that is the key data point. euro-dollar 1.07, strength for the single currency. the bloomberg dollar index is hovering dear a seve

tom: what is the consensus?e are looking at brent at $78 a barrel, is there consensus as to the price direction over the next six months, and whether opec+ will make further cuts? >> a lot will depend on the border macro picture, how bad, how deep or shallow any recession is. however a lot of analysts are feeling slightly bullish. we got covid reopening in china, and while that has created short-term turbulence, as the wave sweeps through bigger cities, there is consensus that will add to the margin significantly. supply growth remains a challenge. shale underperformed in 2022. meanwhile, companies aren't investing at the pace they need to grow their own production. when you look at the balances, things look like, if the economy stays healthy, things could get tighter over the years. a lot of analysts are looking more bullish. francine: it is 2023, let's just all be bolder. that is a good twitter poll. elon musk's pol we will do next. when you are balancing your books, you look at the price of oil, what you thin

tom: the germans and u.s. aligning with the decision to send tanks to ukraine and what it means for that military. this chart highlights the glitches in some trades yesterday. the new york stock exchange says some trades will be declared null and void. how they lament that will be interesting. this doesn't happen very often, we have some great reporting from our team on how they are glued to their screens when they saw the likes of wells fargo dropping down 20% in some cases. manus: it's a conjunction of two things. one is liquidity, you've got market on open, market on close, a whole series of orders placed in there. this is more than just technology and something to do with liquidity. they will also adjust the height and the low. that is huge ramifications in terms of technical trading. such events are extreme, we are looking at the activity with the highest resilience in our systems. we had a normal market close, tom. tom: and again, they will declare some of these trades null and void on the back of that g

tom: where do you stand on that?ave the life -- like of saying markets are overly optimistic in terms of -- what is mike wilson getting wrong? max: i think this sequencing is really the top priority right now. is it really going to be the first half of 2023 that is the weaker part or the second half? i think the key thing people are getting wrong or what we are seeing now is a very concentrated consensus around that first half of 2023. i don't think you have had a few guests who would say first and 2023 we will see pain and then get better. we think because of the concentrated consensus, they have been downgraded massively. everyone is already expecting a recovery. i would argue for everyone is expecting a recovery and earnings expectations haven't come down, but they have come down now, then the upside potential now is much greater then it is for the second half of 2023. francine: there is a great chart , the s&p expected to fall some 22% because of the recession risks. what is your call on the s and p? max: it will

tom: good conversations this morning.ine, the vix, 18.84, and we are evermore accommodative on the bloomberg financial conditions index, .35 positive accommodative standard deviation. we are going to look at wars in europe, maybe in the republican party. maria tadeo joins us from europe, and anne-marie joins us from washington. back story, there is a republican soiree today and vote. making headlines is the governor from florida who says, look, it was a substandard 2018, 2020, and 2022. what is the level of anti-trump as republicans gather? annmarie: i think the comments coming from governor desantis to a conservative influencer, two things, one is showing that he is putting himself up on this national stage to be a really impactful voice when it comes to who is going to be the head of the rnc. he is also saying that they need new blood, he wants a new challenger, and that is an individual, and he says it is because they were not able to deliver this red wave they forecasted in the midterm elections. he goes back and says

tom: this was important to days ago.r core analysis is on because cunningham and missouri both say extend the duration. what if you extend core cpi? what does it mean for rebuilding germany? the fiscal support ukraine needs. all of these questions are more enhanced than two days ago. jonathan: perhaps he was looking at a few months previously but the ecb i think i remember this as we closed out 2022. forgot that the news conference from ecb that was the most hawkish ecb news conference i have ever seen. so blunt and to the point. it was were going to go again, were going to go again. tom: she has to speak to her constituencies. jonathan: that was a news conference. almost said that was the bloomberg's bank meeting. tom: how is it good to be 2023? lisa: we have been back for four days. you said it's already been a long year. jonathan: is like say happy and no more. lisa: you told me that. i stopped immediately. jonathan: you never wished anybody a happy new year. lisa: i wished you a happy new year. can we talk about some

tom: laura wright, thank you.witch focus to a banking giant with a footprint in london and hong kong. hsbc shares have become the most overbought in three decades. on the exchange in hong kong. investors are piling back into retail things to the brighter outlook of china reopening. highlighting that story for you. the listing in london up 35% since mid-october. a turnaround certainly in terms of the fortunes of hsbc benefiting from an unexpected flow of capital from mainland china into its branches in hong kong. shares of adani group companies tumbling after report from hindenburg research. losses accelerated even after adani disputed the allegations in a call with bondholders and has pledged to release a detailed rebuttal later today. let's get more details from mobile. we are -- from mumbai. will the rebuttal help? >> the damage is done. the companies have lost around $45 billion of wealth and some of the key stocks have lost in double digits and it continues. the context is that today is when adani groups a fla

tom: thank you very much indeed.a pause on the job cuts and give it a long, hard think in terms of heavy position for the next 24 months ahead. more coming up and we check in with the markets. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> it is time to the bloomberg business flash, a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. china will jumpstart global air travel this year. the jet maker says china's borders will boost travel almost to pre-covid levels. the following executive reiterated 41,000 planes over the next 20 years. china, a key buyer. piquant is separates beth january 10, 2013. other coins have doubled in value. investors are betting the crypto sector crisis is receding. a stake in high-end cosmetics brand aesop could be valued at $2 billion or more. it is owned by a brazilian cosmetics maker. that is your latest business flash. tom: with to check on markets and where we are headed. of course, the potential you are seeing losses toward the close, but some disappointing data coming out from

tom: alice atkins in london.'s get back to francine's favorite story, which is juventus football club being hit with a 15-point fine, allegedly for false accounting around a player transfers. this means they are likely to miss out on a spot in the champion's league. francine: this is like the worst news, this is a disaster for us. tom: i should have rephrased. if they don't make it to champions league, obviously, a lot of move, hence the move in the stock price. we will continue to watch this for you. they are going to appeal to this penalty, they are part of serie a, the top league in italy, it moves them from third-place place to 10th place. end the tax war and prioritize the u.k.'s green growth, that is what the director general of the cbi, center for british industry, is are going for as they double down around green technology. we will get more on that. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: welcome back to the open, 30 minutes into the european trading day. here are your top stories. ad hoc christopher waller says

tom: thank you.pportunities and optimism around the em space on the back of a softer dollar and the china reopening. eimear daly from natwest markets , thank you. coming up, the u.k. equity market is -- u.k. property market is facing a storm with inflation and price drops all weighing on the market. we will get the latest on that sector next. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: welcome back to the open. 41 minutes into the trading session. for the moment, we are gaining 0.4 percent across-the-board. it is all about the u.s. inflation data. traders wage that u.s. inflation is cooling, and that will affect the rate hikes from the fed. tom: and in your sectors, top of the list is real a straight -- real estate. you have had updates on trading. gilt as well, yields coming in, so that is tying into the property sort -- story. we have rising interest rates and a decline in prices all weighing on the property market which is basing -- bracing for a pivotal year. to get analysis and calls on where prices cofer he

tom: is that a china play now? >> no. tom: why not?e signs of the good data that we started last year and we had two consecutive quarters of gdp decline, then we have positive gdp. you know where that is coming from? that is the mirror image of china. the chinese imports into the states are going down because corporations are now seeing the economic and certain. we have over ordered. when you order less and the imports are less, gdp perversely goes stronger. it goes stronger for the u.s., the whole system and decelerates for china. these are not good signals. this is a system which is recoiling under the pressure of policy which is too tight. alix: help me out. does that mean that you hate tech? is it a big tech value thing? what do you think about that argument we are talking about? >> i believe in the buddha, the empowered us of life. nothing lasts forever. when you look at the beginning or end of every decade and you look at the mega cap stocks and go 10 years forward, where did they go? where is general electric? when i look at met

tom, good morning. tom: good morning. you got 90% of the way there. that was a good effort. divergence between the central banks is becoming clearer is in it with ecb madame lagarde coming out and reiterating her determination to get back down to that 2% target. it's all about technology this week as well as we gear up for those earnings. another storming day for nasdaq. will check in on the markets. the gains you have seen across the nasdaq are 5% the last two days. semi conductors is a big part of that which is why put the philadelphia semiconductor index and they. gains of 5% yesterday in a single day. this on the back of an upgrade by barclays to welcome amd. barclays saying that the worst of the chip route is behind the sector and that fed into the rally for the nasdaq. also optimism from some of those investors around the job cuts and cost cuts across the tech sector. a good question is is also flagging potential weakening demand? in asia, major indexes closed for chinese new year but gains of six tens of a percent soap strong upside in japan. futures in europe are way

tom clayton? i go, yes, he was.e you thinking? you hear that kelley was killed? >> i was numb. i was like -- i think he talked to us and i didn't even know what they said. >> i said, there's no way could tom could do anything like this. i said, there's no possible way. you're looking at the wrong guy. >> thomas clayton wanted the police to get off of him, stop looking at him and look elsewhere. check the gps in my truck. i got a solid alibi. >> and the gps records from his work truck confirm clayton's alibi. he didn't get back home until around 12:35 a.m. >> 911. >> he called 911 at about 12:38. >> he was not present at the time kelly clayton was murdered. >> clearly police knew they still had a lot of work to do. they've now charged thomas clayton with the murder rock-solid alibi.though he had - >> is it possible police have arrested the wrong man? >> and police discover that there was another person in the house. >> open the door, walks in, and get the shock of my life. i have moderate to severe plaque psoriasis.

tom keene, good morning, tom. tom: always good morning to you.what we do at the beginning of the year, we start strong with the top risk of eurasia group. our two optimistic this year on compared strength joining us with a brief surveillance this morning ian bremmer. bill dudley will join us on a divided america. right now, not a divided china. xi is at maximum power >> good to be with you, tom. it's always good to be kicking this off with you. there is no question that both for china as the second-largest largest economy in the world but also with xi jinping having so much power and using it in ways that are capricious and are not in any way to transparent. the global economy has never experienced anything like that, the level of uncertainty in the persona of one human being. we've seen it with the decision to do a complete 180 degree with the pandemic and zero covid we have seen it with a trillion dollars because is decided he was going to squeeze it. that level as china reopens their economy this year with no level of data we used to get 5, 10

tom? tom: alice atkins in london.urrency lender jens assists -- genesis is a latest firm to collapse in the aftermath of ftx's swift downfall. we have the details with joanna. good morning from london. good afternoon we are in singapore. this was foreseen but is no less significant within the crypto space. >> exactly, tom. we have known that genesis and its parent company digital currency group have been having a challenging time and of course this is just the way it is in this latest string of trouble for the crypto industry. it does tell you also that even though bitcoin is back above 20,000 from his lows around 15,000 or 16,000, we are still not out of the woods in crypto overall. there still could be more things happening and this is a pretty big one so we will see where the chips fall. we have already had cameron winklevoss from gemini saying that they may sue various digital currency groups. they may be a pretty interesting bankruptcy proceeding. tom: a pretty public and nasty spat there from the winklevoss twin

tom: you are watching al jazeera. the u.s. secretary of state is calling for urgent steps to restore calm between israelis and palestinians. antony blinken met with benjamin netanyahu in israel. his visit comes after days of violence in the occupied palestinian territory. a mass funeral has been held for some of the 62 people killed in a blast in the pakistani city of peshawar. many who were killed were part of pakistan's security services. peru's congress has postponed a debate over whether to move elections forward to this year. parliament rejected a similar motion on friday. protests calling for elections and the removal of the president have been ongoing for weeks. there has been more fallout from the beating death of an unarmed black man at the hands of police in the u.s. city of memphis. three more people have been fired. tyree nickel died three days after the confrontation with police. every elizondo joins us live from memphis. what role did these three play in his death? reporter: this investigation is very much contin

tom: loan losses a potential risk point.tent will the higher interest rate environment be supportive for this under pressure banking sector? katherine: i think it will be hugely supportive and has been and may still be for a while. i think one of the worries out there is how long they continue to ride appetite the train because banks do well on net interest income because depositors kind of put up with low rates while banks charge more for loans. actually, i think what may happen is depositors start to get savvy and look around for better rates. that could put them under pressure. francine: what are we seeing from european banks? your team has put together job losses and zeros in terms of europe. are we doing worse in europe than u.s. banks? katherine: i think people here in london don't necessarily like to hear about on the whole, banks do have a tougher time here due to the smaller market. it is more fragmented. those themes are the same here though that they are in the u.s.. i guess here in london there is a huge push to

alix: whenever tom comes on the you -- tom comes on the show to sub for guy, whenever the data comes out it is terrible. that was a grim forecast and a big divergence in what we are seeing in the u.s. and europe. things are not great. it is better than it could have been, except for the u.k.. our chief economist did speak to bloomberg and gave a warning about fight inflation. >> the warning is core inflation which excludes more volatile. these core inflation measures have shown more consistent and have not peaked yet and are still far away from targets. the job is not done. tom: imf chief economist speaking to bloomberg earlier in the day. the question, is this a turning point? joining us today on the ground in brussels and ritika gupta in the studio. marie, the data seems to confirm maybe the situation is less bleak than many expected. >> yes, i hate using this sentence but the outlook is very cloudy because today we had your area gdp. we saw growth at the end of last year 0.1%. it is not fireworks but it is not a contraction. when you look at the four big economies, it is a mixed b

although tom bradley is a friend of his is l tom bradley is a friend of his is near?is near? _ , ., tom bradley is a friend of his is near? , , , ., ., tom bradley is a friend of his is near? _ , ., ., ., near? yes yes someone who has had contact with — near? yes yes someone who has had contact with the _ near? yes yes someone who has had contact with the royal _ near? yes yes someone who has had contact with the royal family, - near? yes yes someone who has had contact with the royal family, on - contact with the royal family, on the other hand he is a great activity dress and has great credibility and wants to uphold that. i think perhaps we will see harriet being questioned a bit more differently by tom bradley and anderson cooper.— differently by tom bradley and anderson cooper. differently by tom bradley and anderson cooer. ., ~ , ., , . anderson cooper. thank you very much daniela. sport and for a full round—up, from the bbc sport centre. we start in brazil where mourners are paying their respects to pele, who's lying in state at the football ground of his forme

tom: then there is the geopolitics.e heard from the chinese foreign minister when it comes to us interpretation and views of the u.s.. we are expecting the secretary of state to visit china later this year. australia, the relationship between canberra and beijing is improving around coal. what is driving that change? lulu: the imports are definitely a result of improving relationships between china and australia. i also think it is part of a strategic move on china's part to ensure energy sustainability and security. for australia, they have art -- always been a strong exporter of coal but having china back into the foray will definitely push up prices. francine: thank you so much. we continue following china and the articles that i read really were quite enjoyable to read. it was going through some of the many questions that we have an investors will have on china over the next 12 months. tom: it is intriguing what has come out just in the last 24 hours. whether this will signal more be fundamental shift, and i think g

verlaine. if say i've heard of television but not tom verlaine-— tom verlaine. his - band they would know his songwriting, voice and particularly his guitar playing. together with richard lloyd, they had a unique way of intertwining the guitars, the melodies and rhythms all working together. but what was unique about them was that it wasn't a blues or rock based sound, up until then every body wanted to be eric clapton orjeff beck or somebody like that but television took a blank slate and decided we will start from ground zero with this guitar style and worked out a new way of sounding. and worked out a new way of sounding-— and worked out a new way of soundina. ., ., ., �* , �* , sounding. coming out of the cbgbs club, in the — sounding. coming out of the cbgbs club, in the bowery, _ sounding. coming out of the cbgbs club, in the bowery, that _ sounding. coming out of the cbgbs club, in the bowery, that is - club, in the bowery, that is emblematic of punk and you wouldn't call them that either.— call them that either. nonetheless the were call them that either

tom hanks stops around.e, doing a little game with us we call "maybe coming soon." >> louis: yeah. >> stephen: about some movies that we've done together. and cnn's audie cornish is going to be out here to talk a little about the news. some of the game hens are here tonight. folks, if you watch the show, you know i spend most of my time roaming the central andes mountains of the day's news landscape, stalking the finest, most topical peruvian llamas, which can only be shorn once every three years, then hand-looming the wool before cutting and stitching it into the bespoke vicunya suit that is my monologue. but sometimes, folks, just sometimes, i'm tossed naked out of a party bus along the airport service road, cut arm holes in a discarded tent i fished out of a culvert, then try to explain crypto to a family of possums while wearing the flapping hobo smock of news that is my segment: >> meanwhile! ( cheers and applause ) it's all the xanax i need. that's the bengodiazapine america needs. meanwhile, in hunky