quinn talks about, oil brazil russia, china, greece, and the rest of my does that matter in the tony dwyer: i have learned through so many mistakes in my career that you have to separate fear versus reality. fear is always worse than reality. fear tells you china will collapse and that will be a negative double economic environment, telling you that russia is owing to reengage another eastern european country, it is telling you the iran deal is going to blow up. there are some things you could point to that make you nervous about the market, but these kinds of questions great opportunities as long as our five or one mental these points -- tom: give me one of those. y the marke -- tony: the market correlates -- that is driven by said policy, driven by inflation. tom: that is very good. tony dwyer with us with canaccord genuity. let's get our twitter question. what is your oil call now? that has opened a raging debate. we thank ed morse for giving us the street's best wisdom. mr. gates will join us this hour as we see the russian ruble go through $60. that is the big data headline this morni

tony dwyer is a chief strategist. tony, always great to see you. you're thinking the s&p 500 multiple should be 19. what takes us there? >> honestly, i think it should be 20. if you have to make 7.5%, if you're a pension plan, you have to make 7.5%, real assets are getting smoked. commodities are getting down. the trend is your friend and it's not just the trend of the market but the trend of valuation. if you're an index fund and worried about the overseas markets because of china issue, the greek issue, other issues, and you repay trading money, credit is not really going how you want it to go to get those returns. so how are you going to get those returns? if you decide to add to your equity exposure, you're probably indexing it, right, that's been the consistent theme over the last few years. well, it's market weighted indices. if you're putting money into tech, it goes into the big names to begin with. i know from my history, my biggest mistakes, and i've made so many of them, my biggest mistakes in investing is selling too early, not buying t