tony dwyer, our featured fest, has been sitting hire patiently. >> he is -- >> i'm about to take -- >> sorry about that, i didn't mean to do that. >> seymour here in between us. >> reis heighe's right next to u careful, pal. >> global economy in the back half of the year in a synchronized global recovery, economic improvement domestically, you're seeing an improvement. how do you know that the surprise index is bouncing a off a real extreme low it saw at a minus 80 level a few months ago. you're getting the atlanta now fed gdp number, that has bounced up to almost 4% growth the trend in iron ore, lumber, copper -- >> those are good things you're referencing? >> the peak in the market, this is the most important point i can ever talk about, the viewers are sick of me saying it, you have to have an inversion of the yield curve to have the peak in the market everything other than that is a buying opportunity that's not my opinion. that's is the history of my career think of any single correction we have withstood, and is it sustainable? and does it last a long time and the answer is no,

still with us is tony dwyer. at the chart and saying, look, how much is there to invest to get us to the next leg higher? tony: retail investor is such a small part of the investment public. it is really pension plans and some of the more aggressive ponds have become a bigger part of the market. clearly, this is a market that the volatility is historically low. it has been on a record run this year. it is a market looking for an excuse to pull back. i think it is easy to say this north korea situation is the excuse to have google back, but if you thought there was going to be a war with north korea, was the market have begun 8 s&p points at the open? i don't think so. the fundamental backup is still very positive. it is a lot overbought in the near term. alix: what kind of pullback do we end up seein? question. is a great what is the difference between an 18% pullback with a fiscal cliff or a 4% or 5% pullback that is typical in any bull market? it comes to, how close are we to a recession? you think of the fisca

tony dwyer and david bonson and we very to look six months forward. not ready.ooded port arthur, texas. here's some footage from the crew that rode in the amphibious assault vehicles with them just in the last hour did you see that water splash up holy cow coming up, more coverage of the harvey aftermath and we'll talk to new orleans mayor mitch landrieu about the houston recovery and what new orleans will be doing to help. he was lieutenant governor of louisiana during katrina and remembers the rebuilding from that storm well. >>> and there's talk of waving 401(k) penalties for people who need money fast. we'll hear more about the pros and cons of such a move. stay with us i'm val. the orange money retirement squirrel from voya. i represent the money you save for the future. who's he? he's the green money you can spend now. what's up? gonna pay some bills, maybe buy a new tennis racket. he's got a killer backhand. when it's time to get organized for retirement, it's time to get voya. >>> welcome back fires and chemical explosions caused by hurricane harvey he h

john and pete na jaaron is with us on set, tony dwyer the chief market strategist.e dow which continues to hold. there you see it, above

john and pete na jaaron is with us on set, tony dwyer the chief market strategist. another new high for the dow which continues to hold. there you see it, above 22,000 you might not realize it, but the u.s. market while having a solid year obviously is one of the worst performing of all of the developed markets. does that mean a so-called catchup trade could take stocks to the next level? josh, you're focusing outside the united states for many months. >> yes. >> is this where the secret to the u.s. rally truly lies? >> look, i think so. so think about -- think about the catchup trade now being u.s. stocks versus international, year to date like over a seven year stretch you basically got 11% out of emerging markets and zero out of europe the big, big picture, there's a ton of money to be made purely on mean reversion. year to date international markets are doing better >> while you're on that point, let's go through some of them. s&p is having a great year, up 11%. mscixu.s. is up. spain 27, belgium almost 19, india 21, italy 26, hong kong 25, south korea, 29. here

the news or join us on a talk more about it is chief market strategist senior managing director tony dwyer. good to see you. you are pretty bullish the last time you joined us. put money into this market now. and for that. you're about to hit all-time highs. maria: would you do it again? are things getting -- how do you see it? >> i see little bit of a correction. we are all looking for a friend. [inaudible] what is interesting is historically volatility is very low when people look at that like a sell signal, but it not. it is actually a buy signal that is longer. when you look for a correction come you have to identify what causes a major correction. that is the current fear. you have to have a recession to be a significant seller. the sustainable seller of equities. the only thing that create that as a negative credit environment and we are so far from the negative credit environment at this point that all you say is the market can correct because it too good. the fundamentalist wing vector earnings correlates with collection of earnings. train to a earnings up 11%. dagen: which is a ma

dwyer,re, -- tony central banks, the balance sheet and the project for indigestion in the markets.eserve already doing it with the only test are a few hikes from the federal reserve's. when the done it alone ecb and the bank of japan continues to do a lot of heavy lifting in terms of easing. how difficult will it be for the ecb to step back and the fed to carry on hiking at the same time? >> you have had a synchronized global recovery which is economic activity now allowing for that kind of synchronized global interest rate accommodation withdrawal. i think we have to be careful and extrapolate that too much into equities at this point because credit is still widely available. also, think about a year to maybe two years ago, how many research reports were written about how the only reason the u.s. stock market has been going out is because of the expansion of balance sheets. that has not been expanding in the last couple of years. it is the same. you have had a little bit of a withdrawal coming. the market does not correlate to the fed balance sheet. as directly as it historically