let's bring in tony dwyer. always good to see you >> great pob here. >> bullish, i guess? >> no, our call has been for volatility in the first half i slewabsolutely don't think the trade wars had anything to do with -- you had a ridiculous level of bullishness in january. that's why on the show we were talking about a correction negative news sells. when is the last time it was a dad pushing a kid on the swing it's always negative, negative tells. to only have 12% bearish, when that's how they get paid is kind of amazing thing i'm kind of the idiot in the room for nine years. because the fundamentals are bullish, mel >> so it can be a combination of things it seems almost as if your sort of theory that there was extreme buggish alternate one point. those were excuses to set some of the most -- boeing hat to be one of the highest valued stocks it is peak it's what offsets higher inflation. actually again, let's forget my opinion. let's look at the data, two very different cycles, when the fed was flattening the yield curve by raising rates, the product activity tread work,

here's the thing we have never seen it of about last night tony dwyer was saying guys kmil out. until the yield curve inverts we are not going to have -- you know how tony -- blah, blah. but again we are not going by the same playbook. they are threading a needle here so the margin for error is slim. >> what did we do today? today being the setup for the fed. >> i'm preparing for volatility. i've thrown out some iwm shorts. i think small caps are under a little bit of pressure i think qqqs continue to -- they are now proved the me as opposed to the ones that were holding up i don't think it's run for the hills. i think dan and i are believing the same things here i think it is a similar backdrop except for the fact in a now you can be questioning certain things going on in washington, start to think about losing a total majority >> the risk to the downside. >> look at 3% on the ten year bond that's are different than where we were six months ago when the skies were totally blue. >> i do believe tech is the next head wind. i think it's very priced here and i'm taking money off the

know -- chris was talking about over the last 80 years the yield curve hasn't necessarily mattered tony dwyerked about the fact even when the yield curve inverts you still get 18 months or so of positive returns. if if any place wanted to jump in it would be financials. >> i think the yield curve matters. it's important but i think the variable of cost cutting, the variable of deing arelation for the regional bank especially is person to keep in independent moo. the cost cutting strategies. the balance sheet cutting from constrictive strategies before that's the tail win for regional banks and some of the larger names. >> i agree with chris. if you correlate bank spreads to bank prices, on a flatter yield curve they were making a ton of money. they are geared toward libor and the-year-old curve the down ward sloping 50 day is not a disaster it's harder to suddenly break higher it ensures you are at this a little bitter before you start to turn around. >> still ahead, does all this volatility have your head spinning don't panic. guy adami has three simple steps to trading a wild market he will

kind of ironic -- >> that looks scary when you look at all these things >> it does, but you have tony dwyer who has been on this saying that you have 18 months after the yield curve inverts for the actual recession to take hold >> does that mean the countdown is on? we're in that 18-month countdown clock? >> you know how they always say it's different this time and it's never different i think people are look at the inverted yield curve different we all know what it indicates. we all know what is coming on the horizon. so i do think the countdown will be on when it happens. >> wow >> we'll leave the conversation there. thank you. >>> coming up, ana gupte will join us. she will give us her takeaways from the healthy returns conference including why amazon should either go big or go home. we'll be right back. >>> still to come, facebook is in hot water for failing to protect users privacy. we'll talk to michael fertech, founder of reputation.com. he'll tell us what the social network has to do to regain the trust of its user, here on cnbc. ♪ whether it's a big thing, small thing, or something

dwyer, us now is tony canaccord genuity chief market strategist. you think we are near bottoming.> i think we're in the process of it. it is amazing, thinking back to late to mid january, ridiculous optimism with the 7.5% gain to start the year. now you are retesting the low from that shock drop that happened in early february. yields are back down to 2.75. what we have really been talking about at canaccord is this is human nature, typical moves of human nature funneling extreme enthusiasm to stocks rather than a fundamental development. down 10% with earnings growth at 20% this year. we find it a much better entry point. david: are there fundamentals that may be shifting on us? let's talk about globalized synchronize growth. we are hearing some indication that that is slowing down a bit. do you agree, and if so, what would that do to the stock market? a half ago, and nobody was talking about global synchronized recovery, they were talking about the need of quantitative easing because the growth picture was so poor. now after you have this urge in rates, people talking about the