you want to be positioned into year end and next year. >> tony, thank you, good to see you. >> tony dwyera lot of strategists turn more bearish recently we mad mike wilson of morgan stanley last week, i believe it was. brian kelly, how do you weigh all of strategists that are getting more bearish the calls have not worked out yet because the market keeps going high sore it is tough to stick by this. >> right, i think all of these calls and tony's in particular it is a tactical move. what does that mean. you made a lot of money this year i think that is probably the move here. if i look at the market and say what are the dangers out there i think the biggest danger is the federal reserve under estimatins and then you get wage inflation and a policy mistake comes nap is what will probably stop this rally on a more permanent basis. >> are you in wyoming now? >> i might be. >> i ask that because you mentioned the fed. i'm thinking about jackson hole. when do they, that confab happen over the summer, and i'm thinking about the fed possibly using language to indicate that maybe they will taper

jonathan: tony dwyer joins us now, canaccord genuity chief market strategist. guest: just about everybody has gone to an air show, and they see the plane screaming across, and elevate sudden it pulls straight up, the engines are cooking, and all of a sudden it gets up to a certain part and just stops going up, no matter how much power is added to it. you just lose lift. that is our call, our analogy for what could happen in the market. we know that the fundament of backdrop is very positive. you know how optimistic i have been and continue to be on the macro backdrop of excess liquidity fueling a strong global recovery. that is not going to change, but that is also so well-known, the markets are so overbought, enthusiasm is so high that i think we are approaching that stall speed for a little while. tom: i want to give you a major shout out. you had the courage to be in the market. i would but gina martin adams of bloomberg in that camp. there's others as well. but you link it right into economics. aren't we as far from recession as we have ever been? tony: we

point normalize means time to sell >> more on the impact of the j&j news on the market bring in tony dwyer chief market strategist great to have you with us. what's your take is there an impact on the market view >> really isn't, no. as they said, the economy is reopening. thank god the vaccines are plentiful and distributed faster than expected so the j&j news doesn't have an impact on my opinion. >> ahead of earning season you're worried because you're down grading the market view. it's a rare view, it's based on four things i thought that the 60-minute interview with jerome powell was pretty hawkish it was a change in tone. so every time i am on the show i look into the camera and say the guys keep printing the money keep giving us the game plan and keep printing us the money on 60 minutes he literally said growth was going to be strong. he didn't really hedge it. he said maybe having covid-19 come back could put a risk into it but he was very bullish in economic activity. that's the first time i've seen that follow that coupled with earnings season there's a duke university cfo survey

if tony dwyer is right, you get more money to put it to work if not, you will have -- >> what i'm trying to think is do you have a pullback or not. you have to put money in the market are you buying or waiting for a pullback what are you doing >> i'm buying stocks i put fresh money to work today as well, you know, in the last week to a new stock. >> oh, what was that one >> a pullback, great, but -- >> what was the new stock, enquiring minds want to know. >> elanco. they made an acquisition of bay animal health. their margins can go from low 10 to 30. they're a delevering story and i think you have great secular growth with a management team with a diversified product i like it, it is out of favor, it is down for the year and we bought it. >> pause for a second. >>> we have a news alert on apple. who has that for us? josh lipton. >> scott, apple just now sent out invitations to its next big event. the invitation reads, spring loaded, it says. please join us for a special apple event from apple park. watch online at apple.com april 20th at 10:00 a.m. pacific we don't know what is coming,

i'm just saying the thought process is very similar, and oh, by the way, tony dwyer said similar thingsgain, none of them said they can time this thing. clearly i haven't been able to, but the warning signs are absolutely there. >> we've got tony dwyer joining us tomorrow, actually, so we'll check in with him on his call. speak of the devil delano, how are you feeling? because now that more strategists are moving to the cautious side of things, do you feel like maybe you're more emboldened to remain long? >> yeah, you know, i haven't really taken risk off, but i've been diversified and there's a couple of areas and pockets where investors can look to to be defensive, and i think health care is one of the areas where that's just to make sure they're defensive and also, you know, obviously an option as well, but you know, it's probably the best bet. obviously you know, i love being long some of the growth and mega cap stocks b u the diversification for myself and investors is going to be the best play in the case of anything with the market happens. >>> coming up, tesla's conference call,

no kidding tony dwyer, good to see you.ou dropped your outlook for the market last week, early last week it was modestly so you are looking for a correction is this it i mean is this the dwibeginningf it how big is it going to be? what is the deal >> judge, i think it is going to be a very tame pull back, then i will just say, i'm expecting a pull back. we lowered on the market to neutral, thinking it will be probably 10% over the next couple of months where you could go down and stir stuff lower similar to you did in 2004, have a correction like in 2010. the fundamentals are very sound. we call it a power on stall, and the way -- it is a visual. we are all visual. so think about an air show where you have a plane going across the runway, screaming across the horizon, power is on, the engine is ripping, and it pulls up and it starts going all the way straight up. eventually, no matter how much power is being used the plane stalls and starts to re-tate back down. of course, they get the air speed up and it is fine. in other

working now then the most non-consensus view is that, i said it the other day we were talking about tony dwyer taking chips off the e a a little bit of a strategic move, i think the thing that screws most people up or upsets the cart is if we go much higher. i'm looking for the s&p to go to 4500 about 7% higher. >> wow. >> if it didn't back check to the 50 day moving average we're looking at a drop i think risk reward stay on market. >> we have brian kelly and james mcdonald on the same night and james has surpassed in owner of bearish, you predicted deline in markets and here we are at record what happened are you loaded for a pull back. >> thank you for the question. it's an honor to surpass bk in anything good news honor. what i underestimated was the power of the fed and power of economic empowerment for consumers. when we look at data over decades and decades and compare where markets go there's a presumption of normalized monetary policy and evaluation of risk with regard to earnings, debt and employment. we saw an eviscerateration of earnings and increase of debt to all time records and

tom: i would go to tony dwyer. do we see a recession out there? i don't think so. i'm talking about relative performance here, tom. have you got a comment on london and the pubs reopening? tom: i stopped by the carlisle. jonathan: i was waiting for that. tom: it is like the same thing. in london it is the pubs. here it is the carlisle. jonathan: it is freezing. that's the difference between you and i. you go to the carlisle, i go to the pub. it's a very different life. tom: romaine would go to both. jonathan: we will get to romaine in a second. 10 year, three year a little bit later today. your yield right now on 30's unchanged. i would like to think r omaine would begin the pub with me, and not in the carlisle. i think he's that kind of guy. romaine: don't make me choose between you two. lisa: well done. [laughter] romaine: a big week for markets. you have a earnings that you just alluded to. anchor earnings, economic work -- bank earnings, economic reports. microsoft said to be preparing a deal for nuance. people might remember this company had that dragon voice

tony dwyer talking about a pul back, but then there's tom lee who was with us yesterday and told us thelow let's listen >> it looks like u.s. covid cases might be lagging down in a big way because we are hitting that 40% vaccine penetration, which coincided with israel seeing a huge letdown in cases i think it started two days ago in the u.s that means that june reopening, the visibility on the u.s. sort of coming out of this is much stronger, and i think stocks are going to now have another leg up so i think the rolling correction is sort of running its course and, yes, i think easily 4,200 on the s&p but maybe as much as 4,400 by june. >> rob seechen, this sort of matches what jim lebenthal is talking about. in the face of caution, there's tom lee. who do you agree with? >> i think i agree with both of them i know it is cowardly. in the longer term i agree more with tom lee, but in the intermediate turn i wouldn't be surprised to see more volatility you know, when you look at what has happened, the market was really hit with a one, two, three punch and then a threatened upper cut the