note, this could be one of the most dangerous years for stock investors of the current bull market tony dwyerns us now. tony, always good to have you. are you sticking with the forecast that stocks will rally and recover into the end of the year >> into the end of the year, yes, i am. i don't think we're going to have a recession i think it's already one of the worst years. you know, we're already down 20% on the nasdaq comp as of today, i'm told the russell 2000 is down 20% the s&p 500 is down about 14%. so you're in a situation where the market is already down so much as you know, sara, we came into the year thinking it was going to be a tumultuous year on the back of monetary policy uncertainty, economic growth transition from buying stuff to doing stuff, which was going to lower production all those factors are in play, and you throw in this terrible situation in ukraine, and you get the kind of weakness that we have had but i think it's important at this point when the expectations for the fed are to hike so many times into the teeth of this global crisis, it seems like a stretch to me.