great to see you in person tony dwyer. >> you agree with tony, steve. >> i do. and that is most pessimistic i've heard tony sound in quite sometime and as his point was, he's usually the biggest bull on the street and i'm don't see it coming from him now, he's cautious so that means we'll rip to higher levels i still think we'll see 3800 in the s&p because everybody is focused in on 4,000 that will t will shoot to the down side. >> lyft shares are plunging. down over 20% after the company delivered disappointing guidance diedra bosa has the story. >> it is all about that disappointing guidance and two words here driver incentive this is one of the most painful earnings calls that i've ever listened to. analyst after analyst keeps asking the company to quantify how much they're going to have to spend on those driver incentives in the quarter and the year ahead they keep avoiding and shares are down by more than a quarter. its market cap getting demolished in the after hours. to that guidance, the street was expecting adjusted ebidta profit of nearly $84 million.

joining us now is tony dwyer tony, i know you've been looking for a bounce i don't know, today feels a little tenuous what do you see? >> hey, sara, thanks for having me the whole period is tenuous. when you get these indicators, we tend to look for the low tick and i'm horrible at that, as you know what you want to do is identify an environment where you think even if goes down further you'll make that back up quickly on a reflex rally our call is that a similar environment, i can't wait to hear you talk to the credit investor we're similar to we were in the first half of 1994 so i think that playbook may look pretty good here. >> so in that scenario, would you be buying technology because it's been hardest hit for a summer bounce? >> if you're going to get a bounce it's in those names that got hit the most today is your clue on that it's getting all the stocks down the most are seeing that kind of bounce-back because it's not fundamentally driven what happened in 1994, sara, credit took a hit because the fed razz a lot more aggressive than anybody thought they were going to be. as

. >>> welcome back our next geuest is sitting on te sidelines unless you are very nimble tony dwyer, you say until the fed changes course or there's a policy change. what does that mean, until they're done tightening, until they say 100 points is on the table? what does it mean? >> mel, there's a huge difference between what a bottom is versus the bottom a bottom can come from what we're seeing, an extreme oversold condition with high pessimism, the perception that the fed may be discounted in the marketplace and you still have some okay economic data. that allows you for a rally after that initial whoosh that you get in a fed-driven, fear-based, precipitous decline. so as you know, mel, i think it's a lot like 1994, 2000, or even 2018 where you get the fed comes out much more aggressive than anybody expects and you just get this powerful thumping in the market and liquidity kind of disappears. not just in the market but just in the overall economy you get a bounce back. that bounce back comes from the oversold condition, the perception that maybe it's gotten too extreme with the fed

that's what we were hearing from tony dwyer we have baked in a lot of fed tightening. suddenly people are reassessing to figure out where we go from here. tom: there is some adjustment here. lisa: christine lagarde has asserted they are going to avoid the negative rate policy by the end of september. but it's paired with raphael bostic of the atlantic fed coming out and saying he views september as a good time to pause with rate hikes. so how much are we really pricing in a pause for the federal reserve. tom: i missed this from mr. bostic who is very measured in his language. that goes to the sequential meeting of lawn -- nonlinear. lisa: it feeds into the bull case that this fed will not be as aggressive as the market is currently pricing in. we are seeing a turn, but yesterday we saw a bit of a reprieve. today not so much. we are seeing back to what we saw over the past seven weeks. tom: tell us what we've got going on. lisa: the dollar strength does continue. yields down 2.8 percent. what i really want to know is the incredible guests we have coming up including bob