, good to see you thank you. >> great to be with you, mel >> tony dwyer. >> tony is the reaper. >> apparently he's the reaper. going to be quick and nasty. guy, i know you're in that camp. >> yeah, but blue oyster cult once said so famously, don't fear the reaper, because -- >> don't fear. >> because when the reaper comes, it doesn't matter anyway. tony, it's amazing, he gets painted in such corners and his work is extraordinary in terms of what he's doing he's not a per ma anything, he's just per ma smart. and he's talking about the things we've been talking about. and those advance declines, throw this up there, as well microsoft and apple combined are more than 14% of the s&p 500 that's extraordinary and maybe that can continue. maybe the market can continue to be dragged up by a handful of names. i don't think that's the case, though >> all right. >>> coming up, eu approval microsoft's act vision deal getting the okay from european regulators we have other details straight ahead. >>> but first, shake shack shares jumping as activist investors get invo

everybody's pushing back against the notion that the market has been so resilient we gets about this tony dwyerthe top performers account for 118% of year-to-date gains in the s&p 500 this has not been a broad rally. >> i think deutsche just weighed in a couple moments ago, and mike, you have been all over there, but they're calling it the narrowest rally in a century. >> it depends how you slice it, which of the stocks you want to count in the anointed bucket, but this is the equal weighted s&p lagging and almost all of this underperformance having happened since svb failed. that's the early march divergence there by other measures, this divergence is as wide as it's been since 1999 or early 2000 but also 1998. 1998 was a volatile year you had a financial accident in russia defaults and everything else, and then it was a rush into the, quote, safe megacaps, plus a little bit of a tech bubble getting rolling as well. >> it's interesting that the tech trade has held up so well, given the fact that yields have risen, and now fed expectations are changing is june live is july live we have had some

i thought the tony dwyer note was really good that says all of this is recessionary the top ten stocksom era peak in 2000, and late 2021. he also says the top ten stocks account for the entire year-to-date gain in the s&p 500 with 8 out of 11 sectors down on the year look at the bad breath, the treasury yield inversions, he says that's all recessionary, and strategists agree it's a dangerous place to be for stocks when you have narrow leadership. >> tony has been pessimistic for most of the year it's not going to keep the bulls from arguing that you've got a new secular growth story in ai you've got traction on disinflation you're getting earnings revision to go higher, not lower, those are things working in the bulls favor. >> working if the bear's favorite, fed expectations are being recalibrated and hawkish fed speak. we've got loretta messner, cleveland fed president saying to the financial times, she doesn't see a reason for a pause, meaning wait until you get more evidence before you decide what to do. i would see a compelling case for bringing rates up and holding for a while un

tom: tony dwyer with jonathan ferro on the 9:00 hour, that is important.rted in this hour. i look at all of this and it is almost a joy. the debt ceiling trip to side, we had slower data in china, slower data from home depot, and there is a stew in the trade we are in. lisa: and a slower sense and a germany. we saw the server they came out earlier that shows that suddenly people are more concerned with a negative read on this key gauge. how much are we looking at that being a china story, recovery not as strong as people thought filtering into the strength everybody thought was shockingly surprising that ness seems to be fading? -- that now seems to be fitting? tom: go back to the numbers we had from the big shipping company saying things weren't great. jp morgan has been asking the question, when is it time to drop the overweight europe story. the time is now, granted them. the activity of swing scene at the start of the year was marked by the fall in europe, china reopening. the problem a lot of people are going to have with this take, the weaknesses her