we know that congressman toomey is a wolf in sheep's clothing.e actually advocated that we would have no rules over wall street and helped pass a law, but what's worse, he said the government should be pro-deficit spending. we just have to make sure the facts are clear. at the end of the day, he will be behind wall street's large corporations. i just have to make it clear, like i did in the primary, i didn't run for my congressional seat at the same time i did in the senate primary, because i want to make clear it's not about joe sestak's job, it's about investing in the opportunity of the average pennsylvanian. on. >> congressman joe sestak, always a pleasure to have you on. thank you, sir. >>> breaking news from harlem and there you're getting the chopper shot of the fire underneath that bridge. this bridge is very important, pivotal, really, to the commute in and out of manhattan for system is called there. this is four different lines that come over this bridge, and right now they're all stopped. you can see the fire boats now aiming their ho

who is toomey, exactly? what is he saying about social security? what is he saying about roads? what is he saying about things, frankly the thing that pennsylvanians like? because it's a big, industrial, generally moderate state. i think that's what's happening in place after place, the focus on the republican conservatives is what's bringing the democrats back. >> roger we'll have jack conway from kentucky in a minute. the same thing is happening there, the questions about the views toward drug legality on behalf of rand paul, supporters with racist backgrounds giving him money, those questions are getting asked right now in the closing stretch. >> and howard's point is a good one. every year we say all politics is local until we get to the mid terms and say, no, it's national it's about whether we like the president or not. in fact, it is a lot about local races, individual candidates, candidates with skeletons in their closet that we never knew about before, or candidates who don't really bond well with p

toomey is running for senate seat of arlen specter.bly three or four ticks more conservative than scott brown, but scott brown is a big draw for republican audiences. he goes around, he raises money. but he's always beginning to keep his eye back in massachusetts. that's not exactly a republican stronghold. he's up in 2012 for re-election. >> that's right. pat toomey up seven points. chris cillizza, always good to see you. thanks so much. >> good to see you. take care. >> that does it for this edition of "andrea mitchell reports." join andrea live monday. look at that live picture. tamron hall is here with a look at what's ahead in the next hour. >> hey, norah, a big show coming up. we have the latest from south florida where an eight-hour standoff with police at a bank has ended with some big questions for the eler. >>> and lindsay lohan's day in court ended with the hollywood starlet being led away in handcuffs. lindsay locked up. what happens next? >>> plus, the government still owns 17% of citigroup, but dozens of the company's top

this race is tight but seems like toomey opened up a little lead. >> solid lead.t's interesting when you look at 2008, obama won pennsylvania. that was a big win for him. now he has 37% approval rating. in pennsylvania, we really see the dynamic playing out where the leader of the democratic party is proving to be a political drag on the statewide senate candidate. it's hard to see how sestak is going to close that gap and even open a lead before november. >> bret: juan, we talk about polls a lot. nevada, as tight as it can be. what you see here seems to me to be evidence that some of the tea party stuff has balash attached to it. if you look at sharron angle, she is emblematic of this. i don't think there is any way that any of us who follow politics intensely in room would say that harry reid is going to win his re-election in nevada given his negatives. it took angle to keep him afloat. if you look at the money he has on hand, there will be onslaught on advertising. i would watch nevada to see what is happening. in fact, today, when you look at what harry reid

look at toomey and what i see in pat toomey is rick santorum from 1994.bably the only year rick santorum, very, very conservative guy could have gotten elected in pennsylvania was the republican revolution in 1994. you saw what happened when he ran in a bad year, got beat by 20 points. pat comy is a doctrine, solid guy. if you contrast that with christine o'donnell in delaware, she carries an enormous amount of personal baggage. she is going to be very easy to caricature as a flaky sort of kooky character. to me what i'm looking for when i look at tea party candidates, a lot of them will end up winning. what i'm looking for is which ones are oliver norths. 1994, oliver north lost the unlosable election. i see oliver north. sharron angle, i see an oliver north. >> be careful. harry hasn't been able to shake her. weeks and weeks of getting whacked and whacked again. with the evidence of her fringeness and she is even with harry. >> to me that is almost a triumph for reed. not he is ahead by 15. he should be losing by 15 or 20. rand paul is ahead by seven po

pat toomey was his own boss. legitimate question is is he going to represent working pennsylvanians are special interests and financial companies. that's a legitimate point to make. to say it's not working, this is week five, joe sestak made up 20 points in the last four weeks of the primary, don't count joe out by any means. >> government reb dell thinks it may work out. let's move one state over. john casic is running against stickland. governor strickland, like congressman sestak trying to make wall street a dirty word. >> ohioens are angry. wall street got their recovery and executives who outsourced our jobs, they got their bonuses. we're putting a stop to that in ohio. i don't work for the wall street guys. i work for you. >> i was out there recently. ed rollins, and i saw john casic. he said i knew they were going to attack me. his theory is the negative ads from politicians against wall street don't work because people dislike the politicians more than wall street. >> it's hard to tag john who is a blue c

pennsylvania, toomey up by nine.kasich is doing as well as he's doing and port man those three states stand out in my mind. cherry pick, new jersey, gillibrand, connecticut in play, other states like rossi, in the state of washington and boxer in trouble. it certainly does not bode well for the democrats. is it they are the party in power and they deserve the credit for all the negative economic problems we have and the other problems we have? >> i think people are just -- the information highway has created some downside because you see anything and everything out there. but it has created a lot more good than bad. the good is, you can get your hands-on bills, you don't have to listen to sound bites. people can peel the onion for themselves, if they will. i think people note truth. and they know what's in the bills. they've become much smarter. i don't think you are going to be able to sign off just with sound bites or that really isn't true. i think people know better. again, i think it carries over for those peopl

do you believe that president toomey is a moderate republican? he brought in susan collins of maine for a fundraiser and told and interviewer that he would have confirmed justice sotomayor for the supreme court. caller: the republican party must help industry. if they do not, nobody will. the health care was doomed because it's not done in a way to protect. we have insurance companies last week, a guy retired with $133 million package. these people are taking money that industry has to make up. host: frank, we got your point. host: toomey held the point that viewers can expect two months of ads arguing that the other guy is the extremist. alan, does that handicap that race? guest: toomey is a different candidate than we've seen run in the past. he was very conservative when he was in the house. when he ran against aurelian specter six years ago, he was known as being very conservative. enis running much nowhere moderate against joe sesak, congressman from pennsylvania. the question is is that can democrats written in pennsylvania, which is a batt

and perhaps even help toomey if the president becomes something of a drag on the democratic candidatesn live in the city of brotherly love. now lady gaga, pop star continuing for support of gays in the military calling for congress to repeal "don't ask, don't tell." in a rally in maine, lady or gaga or whatever you call her stood alongside veterans who had been discharged because of the policy and recommended the military adopt a new law she calls "go home." >> if you are not capable of keeping your oath to the armed forces, to defend the constitution of the united states against our enemies, foreign and domestic, bear true allegiance to do the same, unless there is a gay soldier in my unit, then go home! >> shepard: no poker face there. proposal to repeal "don't ask, don't tell" is attached to the defense authorization bill which democrats will attempt to vote on this week. right now, that vote is considered too close to call. a california judge today issued an arrest warrant for one lindsay lohan after she said on twitter she failed a second court-ordered drug test. you will remember

in pennsylvania, you've got toomey. toomey is an old-bred party guy. in every case, they're bumped. this is a party in rapid transition. this is a party that's not the old party of gerry ford and dick nixon. it's a new kind of party. >> what you just rattled off is why -- it explains why castle's airing that call that you just played. because he saw what happened with murkowski, bob bennet, all these folks who said it's not going to happen to me. >> he said he doesn't like to get dirty or rough. here he is, nate silver, one of our experts, if castle wins, ayotte wins tonight in new hampshire, if they both lose, he says it's a lot rougher to win. i think they can still win and net ten if they pull off some upsets in california and wisconsin, places like that. your thoughts? >> my last four senate seats, there are 13 democratic senate seats in play. the last four to flip in my mind are connecticut, west virginia, california and nevada. okay? and if you pull delaware out of the equation, that means republicans have to win two of those four that i identified, west virginia, connecticut,

pat toomey does. >> are you ready to turn back the clock? pat toomey is. he supported the bush agenda every step of the way. tax breaks that send our jobs overseas. he backed bush on privatizing social security. pat toomey, why would we ever go back? host: chris has is aboard our c- span digital bus. we just saw the lastad, sestak focusing on whether or not voters want to turn the clock back. there has been a debate on whether that is the strategy, or do they focus on the tea party movements? what affect is this having? >> as with all political ads, there is a slight of hand in all of them. in the toomey ad, it is more subtle. he criticizes on the stimulus, healthcare, but some of that came under the bush to administration, and he was a pretty good supporter of president bush. i think he could peg sestak with about half of that stuff with bush. about 53% of voters do not want someone in the senate who would support president bush's agenda. having said that, a slight of hand is a little more apparent. they hang heavy on the word and derivatives. he did work

. >> toomey. >> i love toomey bags, you don't see them usually this flat.t of heavy duty nylon and expands to be quite sizable and the right size for a carry-on and has this chic python, for a city trip. it's an ligue bag, which means light in french. >> if you do have to carry on, you -- >> if you have to check. >> if you have to check, there are things you can do to make sure you find your bag. >> there are over 2 million bags lost by airlines in the last year. it's important to make sure your baguettes where it's going. cheapest way to do it, i get this all from my desk drawer, i take one of these and wrap it so you can see it coming down the conveyor. you can do fancy luggage tags you can buy and it's important to get to the airport in time to make sure to see the tag is put on your luggage. i was about to board a flight to tokyo recently. there was no tag. hold on! >> a lot of people, i've done this where i've shipped the bag ahead of time. >> it's very important to think about this and also cost it out because it can be very expensive. if you're doing

republican pat toomey leads most polls and the g.o.p. pennsylvania becomes one of the ten pick-ups needed to reclaim the senate majority. the keystone state lost 82,000 jobs since the stimulus passed and unemployment is over 9%. half of those polled had unfavorable position of him. but sestak renewed the pledge to pull from white house. >> they were on the wrong side of pennsylvania and i bucked that party. i'll do it again all the time. >> congressman joe sestak voted for the most extreme version of the washington healthcare takeover. >> toomey, former congressman who went on to lead the fiscally conservative club for growth, cast sestak as blessing in disguise for himself. >> it reminds them that he has been in lock-step with president obama and nancy pelosi agenda of higher taxes, bail-out, stimulus, cap-and-trade, card check, government run healthcare. >> reporter: sestak wouldn't have appear with the president if he didn't think he needed the money. four months ago, the white house pulled out all the stops for arlen specter. it was

pat toomey, a club for growth, wants to get rid of the whole law, cut taxes. he's the pure thing on the conservative side. sestak, i think, would be wise to do an ad saying, okay, representative toomey, which parts of the health care law that has gone into effect right now do you want to deny the voters of pittsburgh and philadelphia? >> well, these democrats are not plucking out. they're plucking off at the moment. msnbc political analyst howard fineman in this transition period. i'm loosening you up for "huffington post." >> thank you very much. i need it. >> you've been loosened. thank you, howard. when the gop made that pledge, it forgot to mention how many people would lose their jobs if those policies were enacted. astonishing calculations next. >>> the rhetoric over the gop pledge is well and good. the numbers from the economic policies institute, though, are astounding. you may not believe just how many jobs his pledge would eliminate. she said there was no evolution because monkeys were not turning into people as she watched. i thought the reverse. ha

do you believe that president toomey is a moderate republican? he brought in susan collins of maine for a fundraiser and told and interviewer that he would have confirmed justice sotomayor for the supreme court. caller: the republican party must help industry. if they do not, nobody will. the health care was doomed because it's not done in a way to protect. we have insurance companies last week, a guy retired with $133 million package. these people are taking money that industry has to make up. host: frank, we got your point. host: toomey held the point that viewers can expect two months of ads arguing that the other guy is the extremist. alan, does that handicap that race? guest: toomey is a different candidate than we've seen run in the past. he was very conservative when he was in the house. when he ran against aurelian specter six years ago, he was known as being very conservative. enis running much nowhere moderate against joe sesak, congressman from pennsylvania. the question is is that can democrats written in pennsylvania, which is a batt

you think pat toomey is going win in pennsylvania. you think barbara boxer... >> i rebuke by the san francisco chronicle? >> i think it's going to be a victory for fiorina. >> sean: and patty murray in washington? >> patty murray go go either way. roxy has gotten his act together in the last couple days and is out there answering patty murray's charges. >> sean: why are you so confident? he has a great ad on. a great thing he said. murray criticized him saying he's the tool of wall street. he said you supported tarp. who is the tool? >> why do you -- i'm not confident. i'm concerned about sharon angle a little bit in nevada. >> harry read is dead in the water. >> sean: why? >> he hasn't moved since august 1. nobody likes him to start with. only thing that the second breath when. >> tacking sharon angle over social security and medicare this, group americans for new leadership.com put on a full quote of sharon angle. she said she wanted him not to raise raid the lock box. he had a budget of 45 in 75 weeks. he's dead in the water. >> se

. >> is joe sestak going to beat pat toomey?e with you thought you would with win and now you're behind. sestak is certainly one of them. >> that is definitely a race where we've got to do better. the president was in philadelphia yesterday, both doing a couple of different events and is going to be back in pennsylvania more. pennsylvania maerpts big to us, one of the states where we are most invested. we've got more work to do there in that race, but joe sestak, great military year, great service in congress are. he's shown he doesn't mind a tough battle and he's shown he can do what it takes to come out on top. we think the contrast between him and pat toomey, the guy who thinks the right way to solve our problems is to give more money to the largest corporations, i just don't think that's a message that pennsylvania yans are going to embrace. >> i wasn't there last night, but the president did it a shout-out to joe sestak, but he wasn't in the room any longer. he didn't bother to show up at his own fund-raiser? >> he was ther

you think toomey is going to win pen. boxer, i thought this was a stinging rebuke by the san francisco chronicle. >> boxer could still go either way but i think it going to be a victory for -- murray and could go either way. rossi has gotten his act together in the last couple of days and is aggressively out there answering murray's charges. >> sean: why are you so confident -- get. >> has a great ad on. he said, murray criticized him and said he's the tool of wall street. so rossi said, i opposed tarp, you supported it, who is the tool? great comeback. >> sean: i am not as confident, i'm concerned about sharron angle in nevada. >> harry reid is dead in the water. he hasn't moved since august 1st. nobody liked him to start with. he only gained a second breath when he tacked sharron angle over social security and medicare. then group americans fornewleadership.com put on the full quote of angle when she said she wanted them to raise the lock box. when people saw reid was lying in his ad, he hasn't budgeted in seven weeks.

a month or two still lifetime in politics, and what happened is in places like pennsylvania, pat toomey nominee, very strong with the base and the republican party, but very conservative on figures cal matters. the question is whether that's pennsylvania or not. he's very conservative, but stressed cultural issues. too many yik is a club for growth, small government conservative, cut taxes, cut government, questioning social security, social programs and medicare and medicaid. that's not pennsylvania, which likes its government for the most part. what joe sestak is doing to close the race there is less important than the fact that people are focusing on toomey what is me saying? what is he saying about social security? about rose, about frankly the thing that pennsylvanians like? because it's a big, industrial, generally moderate state. i think that's what's happening in place after place, the focus on the republican conservatives is what's bringing the democrats back. >> roger we'll have jack conway from kentucky in a minute. the same thing is happening there, the views toward drug leg

poll shows republican pat toomey with a nine-point lead now over democrat, joe sestak. an automated poll which some pollsters might not be as accurate, but toomey is looking strong. in california the newest public policy poll has senator barbara boxer leading carly fiorina 50-42. and pollster.com's trend on the question, of which party voters want control in congress is now 45-42, favoring the republicans. although, modestly. now, to delaware, where a political earthquake resulted in the country's introduction to the newly elected republican for senate, christine o'donnell. everyone wants to know about her. here's bill maher on his hbo show "realtime." >> christine, if you're watching, i created you. you need to come on this show. if you don't come on this show i'm going to show a clip every week. i'm the only one who has them. i ordered them. let me show this clip from "politically correct" i don't know what year, like 1997 or something. >> you were a witch. >> i dabbled into witchcraft. i never joined a covenant. >> you were a witch? >> i didn't join a coven. >> wait

. >> we're just looking at the -- look, it's taking place and toomey is qzí o'donnell wins?>> i think she does. >> o'donnell doesn't win, no. >> o'donnell loses. >> yes. i'm with karl rove again on this one. mike castle would have handed that vote to the republicans. not against public servants. this woman does not have -- >> which is it? >> i'm not sure. but i hope this will -- continues to dismiss the tea party movement and all candidates rand paul, mark joe rubio, christine o'donnell, because the power of this movement is beyond belief now. and it's mainstream america, and you know how you know it's really powerful, is because the left continues to try to smear these candidates and dismiss them out of hand and call them extremists. when the democratic party has been hijacked and taken to country -- >> that's your prediction. it's a win for her? all right. hold on. [everyone talking at once] >> i was asked for my opinion. i'm not smearing a candidate. that's my opinion. >> the o'donnell has the -- she can win if i were to bet. >> will she win or won't she? >> i would say n

toomey, a very conservative candidate. in other years in pennsylvania, you might not expect him to do as well as he is, but he's definitely holding his own there and may well have a real lead. >> another important poll number in wisconsin. rus feingold is struggling right now. 45% to his challenger, ron johnson with 51%. that could be serious trouble for feingold. >> democrats are disappointed by this one. feingold has been around for a long time. the voters knew and trusted him. the frustration if you're feingold is here's a guy whose whole career has been about staking out his independence. he's often a lone no votes annoying the democratic colleagues. he's the only person who voted against the patriot act. in the fall of 2001. he opposed the tarp bailout. he can say i'm independent of the democratic party that everyone is so up front against. he wants to run excerpts for his first campaign ads in 1992 more of an average joe saying i haven't changed. i haven't been corrupted by washington. >> let's see next wednesday whe

that's why we know that pat toomey's going to win in pennsylvania, because of joe sestak's record.themselves from obama and pelosi every day because they're politically toxic. megyn: well, they're not running on it, that's clear. >> not one democrat is running ads supporting this bill. megyn: these two guys are tied in, they know. this is a preview of the messages we're going to get, so it's always interesting. brad and doug, thanks so much for coming on. come on back, would ya? >> sure thing. thanks, megyn. megyn: folks, in about 20 minutes the guy -- those are the guys, this is the guy. >> reporter: megyn, genetically-engineered food. do you want to eat an animal that has been designed in a laboratory? the fda's about to make a decision over whether to approve something like that, and in addition, the man who claims he got all caffeined up, drank too many energy drinks and took too many diet pills, and that made him murder his wife. details on both of those top of the hour on the beat. megyn: i have to watch that, and i will. thank you, shepherd. see you then. >> okay. megyn: she

if you want to look at the pennsylvania senate race, we see pat toomey. he was a former head of the club for growth. he primaried arlen specter who switched to the democratic party and then he was up against joe sestak. toomey is up by five or six points in the polls but sestak hasn't run his advertising campaign yet. i suspect once he's up on the air, that will close a little bit. right now, toomey is in a good position. >> uma: when you look at this year's races, how does 2010 compare with 1994 in terms of historical significance? is it because we watch races where candidates were virtual unknowns and now they're in tight races? is there a change in the national thinking? >> this is a lot like 1994 where we have candidates coming out of nowhere to take on big names. you will remember in 1994 bill frist upset the majority leader to be, jim thasser. as far as the bigger picture, it has to play out in 2010, 2011 and 2012. >> uma: we have to wait to see how it paints the picture for the future. but the incumbent boxer is leading over carly fiorina. boxer's

pat toomey is the republican nominee, and he is currently leading joe sestak in the polls.o awkward, indeed, and republicans and partisans are delighted to point it out because the president finds himself campaigning for someone whom he did not want to win the nomination and, frankly, pennsylvania is an open question as to whether or not the president can help joe sestak all that much in the first place. the keystone state's lost about 87,000 jobs since the stimulus passed, unemployment is north of 9% here, it went up between july and august, and there is some concern that the president's persona politically can be a problem for democrats. so joe sestak, nonetheless, will take the presence of the commander in chief today for the fund raising and for the buzz because he needs all the help he can get trailing as he does for the senate seat. critical, because it's one of the ten the republicans would love in the fall. jenna: it'd be hard to say no to the president, i guess, carl. thank you so much. carl cameron for us watching anything awkward and all the ongoings in philadelp

do you believe that president toomey is a moderate republican?e brought in susan collins of maine for a fundraiser and told and interviewer that he would have confirmed justice sotomayor for the supreme court. caller: the republican party must help industry. if they do not, nobody will. the health care was doomed because it's not done in a way to protect. we have insurance companies last week, a guy retired with $133 million package. these people are taking money that industry has to make up. host: frank, we got your point. host: toomey held the point that viewers can expect two months of ads arguing that the other guy is the extremist. alan, does that handicap that race? guest: toomey is a different candidate than we've seen run in the past. he was very conservative when he was in the house. when he ran against aurelian specter six years ago, he was known as being very conservative. enis running much nowhere moderate against joe sesak, congressman from pennsylvania. the question is is that can democrats written in pennsylvania, which is a battle

toomey says the president's visit may help him more than sestak. >> i think's an element of that. i think people are very conscious of this very liberal agenda and in my race joe sestak is fully supporting everything item on that agenda and arguing it should have gone further. >> reporter: in the coming weeks, the president will be campaigning in the relatively small number of places where he is still popular, including congressional districts in new mexico, wisconsin, and ohio and, not surprisingly, katie, he will be returning here to philadelphia. >> couric: all right. chip reid. chip, thanks very much. republicans were counting on picking up a democratic senate seat in delaware. that is until tea party favorite christine o'donnell won the g.o.p. nomination. will her past statements about, among other things, witchcraft, come back to haunt her? congressional correspondent nancy cordes reads the tea leaves. >> because i dabbled into witchcraft, i hung around people who were doing these things. >> reporter: christine o'donnell's witchcraft comments may have spooked some republican

pat toomey ahead by 7. roy bloun ahead by 7. the only states are the states we used to take for granted a couple months ago. barbara boxer in california, the 18-year incumbent and patty murray is very popular. she is in trouble. as is as you mentioned, harry reid running dead we've this far out candidate. and of course, wisconsin. out of all people, mr. pure, the absolutely perfect in temperature of integrity united states senator, he is facing a self-financer. the races we took for granted were in play. the one we thought were in play are almost lost right now. >> chris matthews and lawrence o'donnell. gentlemen, i enjoy talking with you about this very, very much. thanks so much. i appreciate it. chris will be back at midnight with a special live edition of "hardball." >>> tonight the ruling class knows, they've seen it now. they not only know it but they've seen it. there is a people's revolution. every day new yorkers are mad enough to change the ballot box. the people have had enough. >> multimillionaire real estate develop

in pennsylvania, former republican congressman pat toomey leads joe sestak 49% to 44%. wisconsin republican ron johnson leads three-term incumbent russ feingold, 51 to 45. in colorado, republican and tea party candidate, ken buck leads first term incumbent michael n bennet 49-44. tea party darling christine o'donnell runs far behind the democratic chris coons. that's a 16-point gap. let's go to mark. what do you make of all of this. >> ali, what the common thread is between all of the polls you cited. mike castle, the congressman here in washington, d.c. would have won that republican primary last week. had he won, our polls showed that he would be up 18 points right now over the democrat coons in delaware. we're seeing a double digit deficit for christine o'donnell. however, by and large, ali, as you said, very good numbers for republicans. they've had the opportunity for knocking off an incumbent. russ feingold first electioned in 1992. that would be a huge win up in wisconsin. they also have the opportunity of picking up that colorado seat which seemed to be turning

in the pennsylvania senate race, pat toomey, again, seven-point lead over joe sestak in striking distance. florida, marco rubio is pulling away. he's up by double digits now. both crist and kendrick meek. we'll continue to check the "hardball" scorecard through the races coming up to election day on november 2nd. the democrats' strategy. let's talk about this final strategy. the "washington post" eugene robin. msnbc political analyst. and charles with the politico, the hot charging news organ these days. here are clips from ads that house democrats are running. ohio's betty sutton, arizona's harry mitchell and florida's alan grayson. he's a wild character at times. let's listen to all three of them. >> you've heard the old saying buyer beware. be ware of car salesman tom ganley, sued over 400 times for fraud and more. >> as treasurer he had ethics problems and record of mismanaging our money. now he's a predatory real estate speculator. >> he wants to force raped women to bear the child. >> submit to me. >> taliban dan webster. hands off our bodies and our laws. >> submit to me. i don't k

the hot race in pennsylvania, the new poll shows pat toomey with a nine-point lead over sestak.t's a poll which some say may not be as accurate. in california, the newest public policy poll has senator boxer leading fiorina 50-42. that's a strong lead, but automated poll. and which party voters want control of congress is now 45-42, favoring the republicans although modestly. now, to delaware, where a political earthquake resulted in the country's introduction to the newly republican candidate. christine o'donnell. here's bill maher on his hbo show. >> christine, if you're watching, i created you. you need to come on this show. if you don't, i'm going to show a clip every week. i'm the only one who has them. let me show this clip. this is from 1997 or something. >> you were a witch. >> i dabbled into witchcraft. i never joined a coven. >> you were a witch? >> i didn't join a coven. >> wait a minute. you're a witch -- >> i was a witch. that's exactly right. >> how could you be a witch? >> because i dabbled into witchcraft. i hung around people who were doing these things. i'm not

number four, pennsylvania, where toomey leads sestak. coates looks like he'll win back his old job. number two, arkansas, where senator lincoln trails by double digits. and most likely to switch parties, north dakota. all ten are seats held by democrats. the republicans have a good shot to win. "hardball" returns after this. [ male announcer ] you are a business pro. lord of the carry-on. sovereign of the security line. you never take an upgrade for granted. and you rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle. and go. you can even take a full-size or above. and still pay the mid-size price. i deserve this. [ male announcer ] you do, business pro. you do. go national. go like a pro. ♪ j-e-l-l-o ♪ j-e-l-l-o ♪ j-e-l-l-o [ child giggles ] >>> the fact is that we would have had comprehensive health care now had it not been for ted kennedy's deliberately blocking the legislation that was proposed in '78 and '79. >> you blame teddy. >> it was his fault. >> just to spite you? that's the implication. >> that's t

toomey is going to win in pennsylvania. >> those are all the federal races. these an article today that talked about the state races. watch the wave it is not just going to be on the federal level but the state level, county level. state policy is also affecting the outcome of federal races. >> you follow politics at that level. let me give you a grass roots ground floor anecdotal story about the vote the president has lost. ran into a guy worked in the hotel industry for 30 years he works $35,000 a year. he has just lost his zero deductible on health care. it is now $1500 a year. that man has just taken a whooping hit and he doesn't like it. >> sean: he's losing independence. we saw that in massachusetts, virginia and new jersey. here's the question, as we head into this election and see the state of the economy. we see the problems politically that he has. anything that this president can do at this late hour, rally or no rally? >> that's why he's flailing around, blaming fox, blaming bush. >> i think he could step back. get off the stage for a few days. ra

in the pennsylvania senate race, pat toomey again, a seven-point lead over sestak. to florida, where marco rubio is pulling away. we'll continue to check the "hardball" score card all through the races. now, the democrats strategy. let's taug about this final strategy. here are clips from some of the ads that house democrats are writing. let's listen to all three of them. >> you've heard the old say saing, buyer beware, so beware of dishonest used car sales man tom gwanly. >> as treasurer, he had ethics problems an a record of mismanaging our money. he wants to force raped women to bear the child. >> submit to me. >> taliban dan webster. hands off our bodies and our laws. >> submit to me. i don't know -- interesting editing there. he's against abortion apparently, but then it says submit to me. is this madman talk? will these work? >> first of all, don't you love the creepy music in the background? they always have the creepy music. sounds as if they're coming to get you. defining the opponent is a time honored strategy and what else are democrats going to do? >> do

pat toomey has pulled ahead of joe sestak by six points. sestak may be regretting he didn't take that white house job offer now. gop dominating in ohio, kasich five points ahead of strickland in the gubernatorial race in ohio in their senate race republican portman is seven points ahead of fisher. out in california in the golden state meg whitman leads jerry brown by six points in the race for governor. fiorina's quest to unseat boxer is going strong still within the margin of error. analyze all these numbers we bring in the one and only mr. frank luntz. good to see you. >> you noticed in those numbers that the undecideds are down 4%, 6%. we are still 49 days from the election and yet everybody has made up their minds and there's not that much room. to me knows numbers are harder than people realize and it is going to be hard for the democrats to come back. >> sean: dick morris contends any break will move in the republican column. democrats have owned washington, one-party rule white house, both houses of congress. so any break, any undeci

sharon angle's running even, rand paul's ahead, rubio's ahead, toomey is ahead.re all ahead. this is the toughest race we've got right here and for a number of reasons. delaware is a liberal state. had a very bloody primary. mike castle lost. he's very popular. the castle republicans are abandoning christine o'donnell or have not come back. she's controversial. no doubt bill maher has put out this stuff and it has been an attack on her. can her energy and enthusiasm and the money that is pouring in behind her and the general wave, can that overcome what are really big odds? >> i'm going to ask you this then, karen, because the tea party candidates clearly very successful in several primary races. who is to say they won't be successful in november. >> that was excellent spin from pat. but here's why they may not be so successful in november. one of the thins you're seeing and it follows the trend that we saw with christine o'donnell, no more national news interviews. sort of like they go into witness protection program. high profile republican strategist is sent o

pat toomey in pennsylvania, john raese in west virginia. in ohio, roy blunt in missouri, ron johnson in wisconsin. all running on privatizing social security. and this debbie halverson add is what it looks like when democrats run against that. you know what issue republicans are even more vulnerable on than they are on social security? abortion. you have to whisper the word because people get very nervous when you say the word abortion in an election year. but in a year when there is a huge gender gap in who is expected to vote and vote republican. and democrats can only compete if democratic women come out in november. you know want to know where republicans are most vulnerable on an oh my god look at the republican agenda ad, it's on the issue of abortion. the roster of republicans who have adopted this once unelectable now standard position of no abortion ever not even in cases of rape or insist continues to grow. nevada republican candidate sharron angle, alaskan republican candidate joe miller, rand paul, colorado republican candidate

in pennsylvania sestak who trailed toomey by six points last week now trails by eight.locked in a tight race for nevada senate with angle still leading by one. in the golden state fiorina is catching up boxer who is now just barely holding on to a one point lead. the battle for governor is in a dead heat with brown and whitman tied at 45. the gop is up in both key races in the buckeye state. senate, portman trouncing the democrat fisher by 13 points. kasich holding a steady lead over the incumbent governor strictland who trails by six. the fight for byrd's old senate seat in west virginia between manchin and racy now putting in the lead with a three point advantage that took a lot by surprise. joining me with his analysis frank luntz. russ fine geld in wisconsin. before -- russ feingold in wisconsin. before we get to that, we just had christine o'donnell on. it is interesting. i think sarah palin is right, the media want to destroy her, slander her. they are not doing the same to her opponent. when get as opportunity to speak what is your reaction? >> she is well tested