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it is obviously an arbitrary choice to rate toto wait -- to wait.f you think about the last three presidencies, in the autumn of their first year something happened to establish a pattern for the next two for the rest of their presidency. with clinton in october 1993 you had somalia and a decision to leave. then get to rwanda, kosovo and the second term. momentous lean with the george w. bush and george h. w. bush to have a 9/11 and the fall of the berlin wall and a pattern that was not easy to identify. -- that was easy. we are searching for a pattern rather than reacting. that only the frame of the discussion today. i would take note that the lack of gender balance because i am sensitive to this issue. i would point out that the issue as a better performance than the random acceptances of our invitations. these two women could not make it even by telephone but their essays are in the magazine. some of you will note them quite well. immediately to my right, the henry a. kissinger senior fellow and a bed -- and a board member of the new american fou