that is what we have our ion when we speak to trafigura. manus: because i am irish and not american, i did not know the benjamin franklin note was they $100 notes. we are going to talk to the chief economist from trafigura shortly. we have shown you some of the influential voices from the bed but they need to be more in tune with the inflation risks. >> as we are making progress in weathering the pandemic, to start adjusting these purchases. treasuries and mortgage backed securities. >> there is an upside risk to inflation. it could go higher than what i have outlined here and we have to be ready on both sides to be able to react to that. >> much of the consensus of professional forecasters in february was that we would have inflation just above 2% this year. we have already had more inflation than that in the first five months of the year. >> it is easy to say that the fed should tighten and i think they should but i think you will see a very sensitive market and a very sensitive economy. the duration of assets has gone very long. manus: i

jonathan: that was the trafigura chief economist.om keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tuesday morning shaping up as follows as we count you down to the opening bell, one hour and 12 minutes away. your s&p 500, 4220, advancing a little more than 0.1%. wti crude with a $73 handle. rent crude had a little look at life north of $75 a barrel this morning, at $75.30. right now, $74.58. tom: it is the way it has gotten here, and this is all about the economics and the under of supply and demand. consistent in well-written thought is francisco blanch of bank of america securities, head of derivatives and commodity research. i want to go to it is less talked about, and that is the demand dynamic. what do you envision to be the then band -- the demand dynamic that gets you to your acclaimed $100 a barrel? francisco: thanks for having me. a few things are key here. first, people have been locked up with very little movement, whether it is business or personal. there's a huge amount of pent up demand we are already seeing in the u.s

lisa: we've heard other wonder dollar barrels oil predictions, from trafigura group and goldman sachs. the idea here that we are flying around, traveling in our cars, moving around, and you're not having shale producers come back online. tom: a couple of things going on here. james foley to join us -- jane foley to join us. we look ahead to the qatar economic forum with the gentleman from south africa, cyril ramaphosa, speaking in a moment. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. national security advisor jake sullivan says the u.s. is working on additional sanctions on russia for the poisoning of opposition leader alexei navalny. president biden said he raised the case with president putin and made it clear that russia would face concert and his if navalny died in prison. spain's prime minister says he plans to pardon nine catalan separatists put in jail for their role in the illegal independence referendum in 2017. he will recommend that his cabinet approve the pardons when it meets tomorrow. backlashes expected from conservatives oppos