treasury if the fed allowed interest rates to rise the u.s. treasury would be and is forced to be would be in a position where they had to default and so i guess i really can't see a big rush to treasuries when the government is defecting because remember in order to avoid to fail we would have to have enormous cuts in government spending i mean what we're talking about right now for this so-called fiscal cliff is tiny compared to the amount of spending cuts or tax hikes that would be required to service the debt if the fed stopped buying and let interest rates rise but what is there another factor in this that plays a role which is the dollar's a reserve currency i mean even if the u.s. prints to infinity at the end of the day the u.s. isn't zimbabwe it's not argentina there is. the dollar's role in the globe it is it's very important to many different countries that don't have a replacement as of yet so it doesn't all of that kind of complicate an argument that's like oh the u.s. would default on its debt but if we do play into infinity then

the treasury, as we saw last year when we dealt with the debt ceiling crisis. the treasury has been groomed to adjusting so maybe the checks they can't write or the cuts they make might be later in the next few months. it gives them a little bit more time. the bush tax cuts, well, that would happen, but things could be grandfathered back in. the concern i have is the uncertainty. i see the u.s. economy is really starting to show some signs that it's taking hold. the recovery is starting to get stronger, but this uncertainty by the fiscal cliff is in the sense an anchor holding this recovery down. and that's something that's-- >> tom: just a matter of weeks to go before we get to the cliff. beth ann bovino, senior economist at s & p. >> tom: treasury secretary timothy geithner will stay in his position through president obama's inauguration next year to help with fiscal cliff negotiations. but geithner has said he will not stick around for the rest of the president's second term. treasury secretary is a demanding job and a key assignment in the upcoming negotiat

cliff of sorts big banks are able to crawl back from the ledge with the help of timothy geithner's treasury geithner is making some major moves before he heads for the door and one which we've seen recently is the final word that foreign exchange swaps from dodd frank derivatives regulation are exempt for context according to bloomberg big banks like u.b.s. and deutsche bank lobbied for this exemption and here is a sense of why foreign exchange contracts were the second largest source of derivatives trading revenue for u.s. bank holding companies in the second quarter the company's reported three point one billion dollars in revenue on trading of foreign exchange derivatives foreign exchange swaps and forwards are part of a four trillion dollar global daily market for foreign exchange but is that really all because actually it could be more than that our guest put together this chart showing outstanding over the counter derivatives take a look ok so making up the largest swath of that is interest rate swaps three hundred seventy nine point four trillion dollars there but does this exemption

treasury over foreign exchange swaps during this transition out for timothy geithner bob english is here to talk about it all from studies south beach plus third quarter g.d.p. growth was revised up to two point seven percent up from the two percent gain previously reported by the commerce department and just short of expectations now reports are that this gain could reverse but more important than that should we put stock in g.d.p. is a measure of the economy's health at all well discussed and earlier this week we asked the natural commentator peter schiff about his hyper inflation calls. i know that you're saying you can't predict when this is going to happen but why haven't we seen that happen well you know i guess i still say the hyperinflation is the worst case scenario. that interview received traction from a certain new york times economist will discuss in loose change let's get to today's capital account. today we'll forget about the fiscal cliff for a moment and talk about some other deadlines approaching that may create a potential regulatory cliff for investors threatenin

government debt do you expect treasury yields to just continue to have really low record lows that are being set next year in two thousand and thirteen and also is there any element of this that you think is intentional. to your to your first question i think it's going to help keep us down somewhat we can't say for sure that there's not going to be some cataclysmic event that's going to precipitate flight out of the dollar or scare out of especially longer term bonds of the u.s. but. in the lower tenders definitely t. bills and maybe up to two three five years these bonds are definitely going to have . some support from all these new measures that are coming into play and as to the second part of your question it's difficult for me at least to think that some of this is an intentional if you look at japan i know the west has looked at japan for years they have this incredible debt to g.d.p. ratio and a lot of people have been made foolish over the last ten years predicting their imminent decline so they're a culture which the local population saves a tremendous amount of their money i

the treasury is still not going to the ball. it will probably ramp up things to pay off that process. [laughter] gerri: that is the problem right there, anthony. thank you for bringing it up. thank you for coming on, we appreciate your insight. we will be right back with the question of the day and my "two cents more" on a copy controversy. stay with us. [ male announcer ] at scottrade, we believe the more you know, the better you trade. so we have ongoing webinars and interactive learning, plus, in-branch seminars at over 500 locations, where our dedicated support teams help you know more so your money can do more. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. our teams have the information you want when you need it. it's anothereason more investors are saying... [ all i'm with scottrade. spending the day with my niece. i don't use super poligrip for hold because my dentures fit well. before those little pieces would get in between my dentures and my gum and it was uncomfortable. even well-fitting dentures le

we saw with treasurys, rally in treasurys for the ten year it is 1.64%. a deeper punch is likely and a ten year over 1.33%. back to you. dagen: cheryl: thank you. see you in 14 minutes. the dow down 300 points. wall street is showing its dissatisfaction with president obama's reelection fearing four more years of gridlock and rising costs and more regulation. s&p capital chief equity strategist with me in new york and scott marden, united baez's chief market strategist joins me. i want to start with you because you are one of the people who came on to this program and predicted a ronny rally, buying into that tree rally. are you selling off right now? >> i am probably rebalancing more than anything. we would have a ronny rally that could have been sold. you would have seen them to present to the upside of romney had won but it seems odd to me that the sell-off being totally attributable to the election because to me it was a known thing. a lot polls show obama was going to win. a lot of things that work especially what is going on in your. ecb meeting tom

david: can we do it better with a new treasury secretary?> i think that is an important point, wh whoever the next treay secretary is should be one that can work with congress on a bipartisan basis and actually get agreement to someone who can complement the president's skills in this area but credibility on both sides. i like bowls, known him for years, you'd be very good and the treasury secretary. very evenhanded. simpson-bowls was something i really supportive. they have been promoting fiscal responsibility, educating the public. liz: it is an interesting idea. david: some say president obama's reelection ass an indicator of their love losig their love and defense of the spirit of enterprise. is there any proof to this? we will ask wall street economist peggy noonan next. liz: uncertainty builds about the tax treatment of dividends that may come to pass in 2013. we've got somebody who is running toward one of the high yielding segments and he says may be the best investment out of their postelection. and we want to hear from you. log ont

treasury yield at 1.6%.le represents real value when its dividend yield vastly exceeds the ten-year treasuries. >> definitely not in kansas anymore. >> apple going forward is a value stock. it's no longer a growth stock. >> what are we saying here? a value play that's a dividend play? this is simply not steve jobs' apple anymore. what about jcpenney, steve? >> bill, i'm not at all interested in jcpenney. i think you want to go with ron johnson's former company. on the fundamental side, the biggest risk with jcpenney from here forward is the fact their cash burn rate. they have half of the cash on hand now they than they had a year ago. the problem is, their investment strategy keeps switching. secondly, we're not seeing any results. i think this company is in a severe financial crunch. i think the stock has shown us that. it is heading significantly lower. >> all right. good to see you both. thanks for joining us today. maria. >> all right, bill. thank you so much. coming up, are apple and the rest of the te

treasuries are a safe investment here's how he responded. the united states can. print money to do that through the result probably of the fold. ok whatever will now try to reach have a new rival for safe haven status and u.s. companies exxon and johnson and johnson bond trading with yields below comparable treasuries money is pouring into corporate bonds what do you think this says corporations are more powerful than governments yeah and no quick point as i said before contrary to popular belief in point of fact if the federal reserve were not buying treasuries the yields in my opinion on those traders would be lower because the fed is keeping the roof up on there and people are able to speculate in other you know other assets including corporate debt which is perform better than equities and sovereign debt we have five seconds i would like you to tell our audience well because i had i had the missile thing on facebook when i was talking about a disney slow disney sort of some ten year bonds or twenty year bonds out and then compared to the french you know i seco

take a look at the ten year treasury. unchanged.al >> im crazy birds with your fox business brief. an initial public offering plans up to $200 million have stairs showing today. it actually could benefit financially from the ipo. coca-cola plans to invest $1.3 billion over the next five years to expand its operation in chile. the new plant will be the most modern system and modern america. it will serve as a model for the rest of the world. all i want for christmas is a tablet. the tablet is the top of the holiday wish list for adults this year. consumers are expected to spend an average of $252 on electronics this year. that is only slightly higher than what they spent in 2011. that is the latest from the fox business network. giving you the power to prosper. wh we got married. i had three kids. and she became the full time mother of three. it was soccer, and ballet, and cheerleading, and baseball. those years were crazy. so, as we go into this next phase, you know, a big part of it for us is that there isn't anything on the schedu

treasuries are effectively almost near zero. still u.s. treasuries. a place that's attractive is not bonds for the highest quality companies. and not bonds -- you know, high risk, high reward, all that kind of stuff, that's still there. the idea is to find in the middle, good solid companies, you know, crossover, single a, triple b. liz: are there ones you look at and say this looks good to me? >> i put together a category of about 10 or 12 different companies. not particularly famous kind of companies but they are good quality companies where you know they aren't going anywhere. you are at least going to get some yield. liz: what's in that little group? >> you try to spread it out. you try to find some telecom companies. the key is to find the companies that you personally understand. so like bgc, you know, i know my company is not going anywhere. that's something i include for these people, not a large percentage because that's irresponsible but a little bit of someone like bgc and a little bit of other kind of companies. if you know the company and

if you look at treasuries overlaid on top of equities, until mr. boehner's comments, the treasuries have taken the big picture on all of this. they're not going anywhere fast. fiscal cliff is important, but there's a lot of issues for the next several years that are going to be important to the treasury market. once his comments were made, equities got a little volatile. you can see that was it. the treasury traders pretty much stopped trading, and it's been light volume ever since. >> but one issue, i guess, isn't there so much room to disappoint this market? given the fact the it is moving so much on any commentary out of washington, if we go over the fiscal cliff by december 31, is there a big opportunity for this market to sell off? it doesn't seem like it's priced in that we go over. >> maria, if we go over the cliff, sure, we're going to have a reactionary selloff. when you look at the fed now talking about qe-4, economic statistics are getting better, not worse. europe is slow e lily resolving issues. >> that reverses in the first quarter if

act your area of expertise more than anything else so talk about the thirty year bull market and treasury bonds how many more decades will that be going on well it's interesting that thirty year bull market in treasury bonds actually began during the gold mania of the late seventy's early eighty's when many people including alan greenspan speculated that the united states would have to restore gold conferred ability to stabilize the dollar even alan greenspan had gone that far by that time so thirty years on well obviously we haven't done a great job at restoring confidence in the dollar have way we look at what's going on with the financial system and therefore of course everyone is fleeing into treasuries which yield only whatever one of the half percent these days below the rate of inflation as officially measured other people measure is way below the rate of inflation you use the word flee and. or fear and bubbles can be created by fear just as easily as they can be created by greed so in the case of let's say the dot com bubble famous dot com bubble burst i was agreed based bubble he

others as well, secretary geithner, treasury. secretary panetta.l the second term look like in the cabinet? back with the panel. kirsten? what do you think? >> well, i think that it's not much of a secret that john kerry wants hillary clinton's job, and he seems to be really the only one in the running. before susan rice was talked about, but she probably didn't have enough stature anyway, but after the benghazi stuff, it sounds like she is totally -- >> bret: i saw bloomberg story today that she was in the, still in the running and one of the top choices. >> that's not what i heard. i heard it's pretty much down to john kerry. and that in terms of other big changes, i heard different things about holder but i did hear that janet napolitano is very interested in taking that job if he left. probably the white house chief of staff is leaving. perhaps he would end up at treasury. >> bret: jack lew. >> john knives a former boss of mine is talked about as a chief of staff. excellent choice. those are probably the big changes. >> bret: what about defense

treasury the u.k. go the most assets on us and we also want to get funds so it's not through any great vested interest in pomona gives i mean use on five and ten year treasuries of ten year gills and now below where they were the great depression well you know things might be better than. ok let's get back to gold and silver so there's traditionally a ratio between the two is right now it's a belief fifty two to one over to gold in the other price basis that's very extended in not the norm talk about that. depends how far you want to go back to try and guess what the norm is. if we correct what we say is in that in a bull market go up a lot more and go than that ratio is obviously going to move a lot more if they were so well that drives part of this rally and that the compression of that ratio so it goes back to more historical sixteen to one or so if you know things as well. for example is just introduce a new futures exchanges which with much lower denomination contract. there's lots of people in ch

you saw treasuries sell off during the course of monday. the treasury curse deepened. and really equities were the beneficiary of those capital flows as there was large asset allocation trade out of bond futures and into equity futures. > > you mentioned the dollar. as money is moving away from the dollar, is that a positive sign, perhaps even going into the end of the year? vvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvv show. that's john brady. > > thank you. there will be push-back this thanksgiving, and not all of it away from the table after the turkey. in our cover story, retailers hoping to get a jump on black friday shoppers by opening thanksgiving evening are getting resistance from employees who'd rather stay home for the holiday. target employee casey st. clair delivered boxes filled with petitions with what she said were 350,000 signatures opposing target stores opening on thanksgiving. "there were shareholders who signed my petition saying that they agreed with what i'm trying to do." st. clair is one of change.org's 20 million users - it's a platform that can gather sup

i like that rather than having like a one-year or two-year treasury.lly think that we are going to see some pretty significant volatility that enters the market as we deal with this uncertainty and about the fiscal cliff and administration and what they are going to do with tax increases on rich people and also potentially dividends and capital gains. >> jeff, thanks so much for joining us. kudos on the apple call. >> thanks very much. i hope to join you again sometime soon. >> yes, in the studio at some point. we'll show you once again what is going on with greece. more ridioting in the streets. this is the backside of the parliament square. once again, there's an austerity vote today in greece. in other words, the parliament has to pass a budget that includes deep, deep cuts. that's why the people are in the streets. they are angry about yet even more cuts. we've seen this movie many times before. add this to the list of worries of europe. we'll also talk about the big leadership change in china that's coming up which could also be problematic for th

it could mean long treasuries. something that will do well if something bad happens. so that you've got money to pump out your basement if it floods like mine did. but here's the thing, most people have already done too much of that because those kind of holdings are insurance policies. they're not investments. so that's one piece of the barbell. then there's the other piece of the barbell. liz: we're going with the barbell approach. >> we're going with the barbell, some emergency money to get you through with whatever craziness what happens with this fiscal cliff. liz: you are saying that side of the barbell is already heavy with some people because they are so scared. >> look at what people have done -- >> you look good in that tank top. >> it's made for me. if i had biceps like that, i don't know what would happen. i don't want to know. give me a little more hair too, could you? people put a trillion dollars in bond funds over the last five years and taken half a trillion dollars out of equity funds. one of the things we know that's on the horizon next year the yea

let me turn to the remaining holdings of aig by the treasury.ou say theying sell the remainder to have before 2013. we asked treasury for a commented on that. they're declining to comment on future share sales. do you still expect that the government would get fully out of aig by year end? >> i don't know what the government expects. i can only tell you that i think they have a desire to sell. i think that the markets have to be receptive to what they want to do. when they're comfortable that the markets are receptive, i believe they'll proceed. i think we're going into some choppy weather in the last couple days. i think they're looking for the right time to maximize the value for america, and they'll do that when they feel they're able to accomplish that for the country. >> we know the treasury lockup ends on november 10th. any active discussions regarding a secondary here on this? >> we don't get involved in that. you know, we leave that entirely up to the u.s. treasury. they're the shareholder. to the extent we can be the facilitator, we wou

the federal reserve if that were legislation that congress would pass it's an inside job that the treasury prints money gives it to the federal reserve federal reserve gives it to the banks that zero percent of the banks give it to you or i know treasuries in a closed loop making profits off of you and i. think you know dr jill stein your opening statement please thanks so much it's great to be here and thank you so much to our team and for you well the american people certainly are at the breaking point but in this election we can turn that into a tipping point and start to take back our democracy and the peaceful of just green future we need to serve we are in crisis now we are the american people are losing our jobs decent wages our homes affordable health care and higher education our civil liberties are under attack. and the climate is in an accelerated meltdown the wealthy few are making out like bandits doing better than ever while every day people are being thrown under the bus and the political establishment is actually making it worse imposing austerity on everyday people while t