and treasury is also expected to have to reduce its issuance of short-term treasuries this fall in order to stay below the debt limit and at a time when the supply of short-term treasuries are already low because of the shift towards government money market funds. so, my question is. do you agree that the uncertainty over when and whether the debt limit will be raised is causing disportions in the markets and is impacting treasury's ability to borrow at the lowest possible rate? >> well, let me say that i assure you, i am very focused on the debt limit, as he have' said before, i urged congress to work on this before anybody leaves. i said yesterday in my testimony and i will be alerting congress, that my previous letter on special powers will be extended through september. >> mr. secretary, my time is almost up and i want to know, if treasury were to breach the debt limit and start prioritizing limits on the debt on obligations like social security, do you think that the markets would view this as a default. >> i have no intent on prioritizing. i don't think that makes sense. the govern

treasury's largest bureau is the internal revenue service ait accounting for nearly 94% of all of treasury's budget ". and while the budget proposes cutting irs's top line by 2%, it is also prioritized by requesting to support infrastructure and its i.t. department and modernization and improving cybersecurity overall. i'm interested in hearing from you today, mr. secretary, on how funding for these priorities will improve the taxpayer experience. the request before us also includes $117 million for the office ever terrorism and financial intelligence. this is a $5 million reduction from last year as well. but this office does a lot and it's not just oversees policy, but it also has a critical role of enforcing sanctions against rogue nations and nuclear prolive fer ratetors. freezing accounts of terrorists, money launderers and drug lords and producing intelligence for treasury leadership and national security officials. this office also has the dual purpose of safeguarding our financial system against elicit use and protecting our systems from national security threats. i'm also interested

the department of treasury has an important mission. its work is to promote economic growth and stability and safeguard our financial system which is critical to maintain a strong economy and create economic opportunity. equally important is its work to combat terrorism. the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, money laundering, drug trafficking and other national security threats. the internal revenue service has the significant role of administering our nation's tax laws. to carry this out effectively, taxpayers must have the faith that irs will do its job without regard to an individual's exercise of their constitutional rights. the irs must also protect taxpayers' personal information and privacy as the irs continues to evolve and make changes in its service delivery systems there must be improvements in its ability to manage that change without adversely affecting taxpayers or compromising their personal information. we look forward to hearing from all of our witnesses today about the details of your budget requests as wel

he was sworn in as the secretary of treasury. he was born and raised in new york city and holds a bachelor's degree from yale university. he has retail and banking experience which he brings to the office in which he now holds. without objections, the witness written statement will be made part of the record. secretary mnuchin, welcome to the first appearance before the committee. you are recognized for five minutes to give oral testimony. >> thank you very much. chairman hensarling, ranking member waters, and members of the committee i am pleased to be here today and look forward to discussing the important issues for the american people. i would like to begin by addressing treasury's national advisory committee report. treasury uses its leadership role in international financial institutions to help ensure they are carrying out the core amendments. the treasury is focused on keeping the international financial institutions as cost eeffective as possible. we press on the need to investigate global imbalances. this holds the ims

within treasury and in our nation's financial sector. in addition we also want to learn more about treasures point to make a comprehensive approach to regulatory relief. hopefully those efforts will spur economic growth and job creation. thank you and i will now turn to a ranking member senator coons for his opening statement. >> thank you, chairwoman capital for competing this hearing. i appreciate the opportunity we have to examine a very wide, diverse range of interest across many agencies and in particular the department of treasury and i look for to finding common ground and strengthening our partnership and i would like to welcome our witnesses secretary mnuchin, commissioner koskinen and inspector general russell george. thank you for joining us this morning and for your service to our nation. today we're concerned the budget request by the treasury department, a department that is central government stability and operations that could help sustain country siskel health and protect our national security from collecting taxes and p

treasury. so there has been an evolution to actually focus on this in a fundamental way, and the one thing i would say -- and this goes to marcelle's point at the introduction -- these issues actually are more fundamental and more important now than ever before, not just because they form part of the political rift but because the issues of how groups like al qaeda, group like daesh, other successor groups are raising funds in a global network is more critical than ever before. there's been much in the literature about the folly of following the money or trying to deal with terrorist financing and i think it is the exact opposite. it is more fundamental to think how these types of groups gain support, are able to sustain themselves and actually are able to build their networks and global ambitions because of the financing that they have. that's why these issues are so important in the gulf today. in terms of the rift, it is clear to me from an american standpoint the rift is a burden and a barr

secretary as well as commissioner john poste and our treasury ig. thank you for being here. the department of treasury its work is to promote economic growth, stability and safeguard our financial systems which is critical to maintaining a strong economy and create an economic opportunity. equally important is its work to combat terrorism, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and money laundering, drug trafficking and other national security threats come internal revenue service as a significanisa significant rolf administering the nation's tax laws. to carry out the out their responsibilities, taxpayers must have the faith of the irs will do its job without regards to an individual sixers as of their constitutional rights. the irs must protect the taxpayers information and privacy as they continue to evolvbeinvolved to make changess service delivery systems. the ability to manage that change without adversely affecting taxpayers were compromising their information. we look forward to hearing from all of the witnesses today as well as fo

treasury rates matter a lot.he second thing that has to happen, is that auto sales need to recover. auto stocks and retail stocks are the second largest segment of the value index. we have to have recovery in consumer stocks for that to work. prices.s oil oil prices are a huge part of the value index because as a group it makes up 11% of the index. prices to see oil recover for the value trade to become more sustainable and not just a retracement of extreme losses we have seen over the past six months. yvonne: always great to have you, our bloomberg chief equity strategist from new york. plenty more ahead on "daybreak asia." we look ahead to the boj's monetary policy decision. joining us to cio talk about what is going on in the treasury market. this is bloomberg. ♪ ,"onne: this is "daybreak asia i am yvonne man in hong kong. betty: i am betty lou in new york. it traders and futures are growing more convinced u.s. -- will be lower. no matter what the fed the says, the health care failure is raising doubts whether

although this is an advertisement for the treasury department, we are all former treasury officials - the work we have been able to do countering terrorist financing, not to mention many, many other empowered and functioning. you can applaud. so, just a couple quick thoughts picking up on what juan was saying. terrorists to combat financing, i came to the treasury in 2009. that was at a point where juan and his team had made an inrmous amount of progress combating the principal problem, which was funding coming out of saudi arabia. stewart famously said if he could snap his fingers and into the terrorist financing out of saudi arabia, that would make a big difference. that did not make him that popular with ambassador in saudi arabia at the time. by the time i got there in 2009 the saudi's had shifted quite theiricantly in perception of this issue and their willingness to work with the u.s.. i then had the opportunity to try to build on those efforts. the we did in my tenure at treasury, which spanned from 2009 until 2015 was principally to work i laterally, and i think this bears the

flying along front of a new receive the classic treasury building right on.he vaults hold millions upon millions of the nation's wealth a matter. for the ages for the design of the treasury one of the lovely buildings in washington. the treasury was erected on the spot where the forceful andrew jackson a seventy five of them firmly stuck his cane upon the ground to fight. and they did. get. to the white house and across the lawn to the state and rob build a country. of laws. and the want of. five hundred room for adding them together. along. they are two miles long together/ the treasures here include the original copies of the constitution of the united states and the declaration of independence also the armchair in which jefferson wrote for the. state building on the progress of the treasury on the back ground and between them the white house the home of the president. seen after the british had partially branded. the roosevelt who gave the lovely structure but still alive. only descriptive names officially. it was the earliest building completed in washing

the central by the market was to be aggressively short treasuries.e look at this trade and see how it plays out. ultimately everyone got squeezed and it was painful. are we on the opposite side of that story? have we gone far enough to do it -- to do what andrew has talked about? colin: we have gone far enough. clearly there was a squeeze -- no doubt about that. expectations were that rates were going to go higher no matter what and they certainly did not do that. one of the issues that i have that causes me concern is the lack of true wage inflation. even though we are at full or what would be deemed full through employment, we cannot get any wage inflation to stick. that gives me pause when thinking about if this could be a trade that should take place immediately. jonathan: marilyn, it would be great on a program like this to just focus on fundamentals, but unfortunately the central bank in there we have to discuss as , well. you mentioned the federal reserve. how do you gauge the way balance sheet policy is going to roll out if they do announce a

it will be a long process, i should think, to go back to an old treasuries portfolio. even after we've come to the point where our balance sheet has been reduced to its lower level as we expect to take it, we'll still have substantial holdings of mortgage backed securities, so beyond that, we will be running further down mortgage backed securities and replacing them with treasuries so it will be -- but the fomc is committed to a primarily treasury only portfolio in the longer run. >> all right. i appreciate that. with that i yield back 18 of my seconds and go to you, senator brown. >> setting high standards. thank you. history teaches us that when congress does big things, labor law reform and social security with franklin roosevelt, 1965, lyndon johnson with medicare, that congress two or three years later goes back to those issues bipartisanly and makes modest changes to fix them, something we've been asking for several years, asking republicans to do with the affordable care act and they've not chosen to work with us to make minor adjustments. the same with dodd/fra

although this is an advertisement from the treasury department, we're all former treasury fiofficials and the wo we have been able to do in terrorist financing and other areas is enormously dependent upon a state department that's out there, fully powered and fully functioning. so just a couple of quick thoughts. the effort to combat terrorist financing, i came to the treasury department in 2009, i had a point where juan and his team with stewart levy and others at the state department have made an enormous amount of -- principal problem was the funding coming out of saudi arabia. stewart said if he could snap his fingers and terrorist financing in saudi arabia, that would make all the difference, or something along those lines, that didn't make him very popular with the ambassador in saudi arabia at the time. but by the time i got there in 2009, the saudis had shifted by significantly on their perspective and their willingness and ability to work with the u.s. i then had the opportunity to try to build on those efforts. what we did in my tenure at treasury, which spanned from '09 to

the cap will initially start at love levels, $6 billion a month for treasuries and $4 billion a month for mortgage-backed securities and over the space of a year will ramp up to $20 billion for mortgage-backed securities and $30 billion for treasuries so, after a year of this process running, the caps will remain in place, but buying only infrequently when there are unusually large redemptions of principle that take place. and we have not decided yet on what our longer-run monetary policy framework will be and what quantity of reserves that will entail our supplying to the banking system. we expect it to be substantially larger than pre-crisis, but substantially less than we have now. and i would say that this process will play out probably around 2022, when our balance sheet would probably somewhere in that range shrink to normal levels now, currency, since the crisis, currency has more than doubled in quantity, from about $700 billion to $1.5 trillion now so our balance sheet will end up substantially larger than it was before the crisis, but appreciably lower than it is now. and th

i am watching ten year treasury note yields.like technology and the utilities and telecom. >> banks reporting friday. oil prices slipped more this morning, down nearly aernt pce that's it for "worldwide exchange." "squawk box" is next the future isn't silver suits and houses on mars, it's right now. think about it. we can push buttons and make cars appear out of thin air. find love anywhere. he's cute. and buy things from, well, everywhere. how? because our phones have evolved. so isn't it time our networks did too? introducing america's largest, most reliable 4g lte combined with the most wifi hotspots. it's a new kind of network. xfinity mobile. >>> packed agenda on wall street and a flood of economic reports, and earnings season kicks off friday full market run-down straight ahead. >>> plus, congress is back in session. we'll tell you about the gop agenda and prospects for the health care reform bill in the senate. >>> and country music legend charlie pride will receive a grammy lifetime achievement award tomorrow night in ne

nicky morgan, the newly installed chair of the treasury committee.a cooper on monday night at 11 for a full roundup of the day here at westminster. but for now, from me, alicia mccarthy, goodbye. hello there. some real ups and downs in the week ahead, but firstly up, seen a lot of sunshine. some showers, and the wind is quite blustery in northern scotland. a lovely bit of high cloud in parts of the south, turning hazy. essentially, blue skies are the order of the day. —— order. as we had through monday night into the early hours of tuesday, staying quiet and fine. some clear spells. the odd patch of fog here and there. a muggy night in the south, cool up towards the north—east. 0n a muggy night in the south, cool up towards the north—east. on tuesday, a lot of dry weather. some spots getting close to 30 degrees. some thunderstorms getting in from the south, becoming more widespread during tuesday night and wednesday. as they clear away, things turning much cooler and fresher for the end of the week. welcome to bbc news, broadcasting to viewers in nor

nicky morgan, the newly installed chair of the treasury committee. on monday night at 11 for a full roundup of the day here at westminster. but for now, from me, alicia mccarthy, goodbye. good morning. and increasingly muddy field for the day ahead. some cloud to go with it. the best of the sunshine across east anglia and the south—east. cloud elsewhere producing rain, coming and going through the morning. not much rain in the east and south—east. 0ne through the morning. not much rain in the east and south—east. one of the wettest spots, western scotland. rain persisted throughout the day. spreading through northern ireland in the afternoon. temperatures in the cloudy areas, still up on what we saw on friday. in the evening, scotla nd we saw on friday. in the evening, scotland and northern ireland seeing some rain, pushing into the north—west of england. by sunday, across england and wales, edging into east anglia. a few spots of rain as it heads southwards. southernmost counties, humid and monty. some morning sunshine. the best of the sunshine, nor

nicky morgan, the newly installed chair of the treasury committee.tiina cooper on monday night at 11 for a full round—up of the day here at westminster. but for now, from me, alicia mccarthy, goodbye. hello, finally the sun has been making an appearance today for scotland, northern ireland and much of northern england compared to yesterday. this is the view from cumbria today, broken cloud and sunshine. further south, in cumbria today, broken cloud and sunshine. furthersouth, in england and wales, this area of cloud producing light rain and showers, ageing southwards with those, and from east anglia into parts of south—east england, it isn't out of the question that they could be passing showers at wimbledon. behind this strip of cloud, things brighten up. a slightly slow process but we get there through much of the midlands and wales, for northern england, northern ireland and scotland, dry, breezy, the further north you are, near gale force winds in northern scotland with some showers, some heavy, and overnight it becomes an area of cloud and rain

historically as i have mentioned, flattening the three-month treasury bill to the 10 year treasury, younow, has induced a recession. i don't think we need to go to flat in order to produce a growth recession, simply because we are a more highly levered economy, not only domestically but globally. scarlet: so what would you advise the fed to do? how would you urge it to perhaps fine-tune its approach? bill: well, i think they should, you know, begin the tapering of their treasury portfolio. that would produce a more steep yield curve, in my opinion, by not buying more 10-year treasuries, by not buying more five-year treasuries, as the current portfolio matures, and then ultimately, you would think treasuries in the longer term would move higher by 10, 20, 30 basis points, and produce a more steep curve that would allow for higher profitability in terms of banks and would not threaten those with short-term interest rates in terms of their interest rate cover. so i think the fed is beginning to move in that direction. they are beginning to think that perhaps raising interest rates, from th

david to serve as the assistant secretary of treasury for tax policy. welcome to the finance committee. we appreciate the willingness to adhere today and we also appreciate the willingness to serve in this capacity. i'm sure the significance of this position at this crucial time is not lost on you. it's not lost on any member of the committee. it's a major focus of the committee for some time now and we agreed to have you here to discuss your thoughts on these matters. on a number of occasions i stated the presidential leadership would be a key component to any successful tax reform effort. just last week i quoted president obama at a speech on the senate floor back in 2012 he said things like the current corporate tax system is outdated, unfair and inefficient. the problem was he never got around to leading out of the tax reform and i expect more on tax reform. that expectation comes in large part because of knowing him and the way that he approaches these things are the. i have to say also because he and secretary have been talking about it so much th

like i want a rich guy at the head of treasury, right? [applause] president trump i want a rich guy at the head of commerce, because we have been screwed so

require the treasury to issue gross domestic product length if the debt ceiling is reached. love the president to authorize certain government assets. are you saying that this language needs to be tied to any debt limit, any proposal that would raise the debt limit? what we are trying to do is produce a series of tools that are useful to treasury in managing our debt issues. if you look at the cbo report from 10 days ago, we are in real trouble. the numbers are genuinely very ugly. we are borrowing $2 billion per day. if we are here for an hour, that is $83 million per hour. it only gets dramatically worse. medicare part a is gone and less than seven years. if you are 50 years old, when you get ready to retire, social security trust fund is gone. single moste important elements going on in this federal government. host: how would your proposal tackle entitlement reform? guest: it doesn't. that has to be done at a much grander scale. this proposal is just debt management. into bethose moving baby boomers. -- average baby boomer more boomer will take out $330,000. you start to

is there anyone long treasuries that would be uncomfortable at this point?> i think there's not a huge amount of demand. we still think that, on balance, they are offering a pretty decent environment. a huge amount of focus on inflation data. the market has priced in that there will be some change in the reinvestment program, september or october. the federal poverty rates in december, there's a huge amount of data to come. jonathan: thinking about the data and the reflation story, we thea really lousy -- message was the price of inflation isn't cheap enough yet, what do you say? look to it before and everyone has this extra inflation. isalready know no one expecting a rate hike in september. maybe a 40% chance in september. the chances are already there so we think there might be some opportunity to take advantage of it and we think there is a positive surprise. for the: the central by market was to be aggressively short treasury and that is how it will play out and then ultimately francine: everyone got squeezed and it was painful. have we gone far enough

nicky morgan, the newly installed chair of the treasury committee.a cooper on monday night at 11 for a full round—up of the day here at westminster. but for now, from me, alicia mccarthy, goodbye. hello there. if saturday was a little bit cloudy for your liking, well, most places can expect something a little brighter during sunday. the skies actually started to brighten in one or two spots on saturday afternoon and evening. that was the sunset in cambridgeshire. and a little earlier in the day, where we saw cloud breaking up a little bit through the likes of the midlands and northern ireland, temperatures lifted very readily, up to 2a or 25 degrees because of the wedge of warm, humid air that was sitting in place. now, fast—forward to the start of sunday morning, that wedge of warm air is confined to the southern half of the country, where it will be quite cloudy, misty, murky and drizzly in places. a very, very warm start to the day indeed, but something cooler and fresher for northern ireland and for scotland. that will be, though, where we see th

we will talk about the retraction of the shift from mbs securities to treasuries.things going on, the balance sheet will be larger than it was. if you go with the growth of the economy and the need for money, the fed's ability to use it, there is an argument it will be $4 trillion in the next 10 years, which means they will not be that much reduction, and the fed wants it all in treasuries. when they reduce the amount of mortgage-backed securities, they could buy some treasuries. that is not immediate, but two or three years, they are not getting the mortgage-backed securities, it could be the treasury side. you have that dynamic going. there is a lot of uncertainty with the pace and what it will mean. hypothetical. what is the optimal side? i was teasing the quote you picked out from ben bernanke, that we appear to be growing into the size of the balance sheet, that the u.s. economy is , reducing the need for rapid shrinkage over the next few years. talk to me about what ben bernanke meant by the currency demand and the reserves out there now. david: the currency

treasury came back and said, no, that's not how sanctions work. when you read the sanctions, it makes it clear and that exxon should have known better, poppy. >> the devil's in the details as always, michelle kosinski at the state department. >>> two families lost loved ones in police shootings coming together with a common message, justice must be served. there's nothing more important to me than my vacation. so when i need to book a hotel room, i want someone that makes it easy to find what i want. booking.com gets it. and with their price match, i know i'm getting the best price every time. now i can start relaxing even before the vacation begins. your vacation is very important. that's why booking.com makes finding the right hotel for the right price easy. visit booking.com now to find out why we're booking.yeah! ♪...i got what you need... ♪i'll be your i'll, i'll... sarah? cleaning up. ♪ to keep our community safe. before you do any project big or small, pg&e will come out and mark your gas and electric lines so you don't hit them when you di

bund yields are specially rich with the treasuries for a long time.u look at the bund-treasuries spread, it was around 200 basis points early on. now we have come down to about 175 basis points right now, so the bund-treasuries very much in line with the dollar. and bunds are sensitive to what comes out of the ecb. jonathan: set us up for next thursday from president draghi. there was debate around whether the market misjudged the speech he delivered at the ecb form. is it his job to clarify the message next week and will we have a dovish ecb? jim: i think he may try to clarify a bit, but i don't think the market was incorrect in its interpretation. as we just heard, there is an enormous amount of market risk when the yield our this low. the durations are extraordinarily long. unless you keep receiving good news from your central bank, a portfolio manager has to ask himself, why do i own some of this long-duration debt at these extraordinarily low yields that the central bank is not going to be as cooperative as it has been in the past? jonathan: it w

carter has been nominated to serve as assistant treasury t secretary for tax policy. it's a very tough job. j it's especially challenging when the congress is gearing up to work on major tax legislation where i very much share senator mccaskill's view on the importance of a be a bipartisan. in my view the hardest is guaranteeing that everybody in america has a chance to get ahead, not just the fortunate few. tax reform becomes a partisan exercise in slashing rates for just the wealthy and biggestamec corporations, the american people see this as a con job. that's because it will leave in place the root causes of the appalling -- the fact is the tax code in america today is a tale of two systems. there is one system for cops and nurses and it is compulsory and strict. their taxes come out of every single paycheck. then there's another system for the lucky few that says you can pay what you want when you want to. goes without saying the nominees for top jobs in tax policy need the knowledge and experience to fix this route unfairness.tal tm it's vital to make sure nomin

the treasury department has accused exxon mobil of reckless disregard in violating sanctions against russia. while secretary of state rex tellers in was it c. e. o. in two thousand and fourteen. the oil giant has been fined two million dollars for its breach. the state department offered a terse defense of taylor said in this secretary continues to abide by his ethical commitments including that refusal from exxon related activities. the heart of the issue is a business agreement signed with igor sechin ceo of russian oil company rosneft. such in was one of those blacklisted by the treasury department in the wake of russia's annexation of crimea in march two thousand and fourteen. the deals were signed less than a month after the u. s. ban companies from doing business with him. just hours after the fine was announced exxon mobil hit back filing a lawsuit in calling the actions of the treasury department's office of foreign assets control. fundamentally unfair. i fax seeks to retroactively enforce a new interpretation of an executive order that is inconsistent with the explicit and u

our assets currently total close to $4.5 trillion, consisting of roughly $2.5 trillion of treasuries and $1.7 billion -- trillion of mortgage backed securities. we intend to shrink our balance sheet and particularly the outstanding quantity of reserves in the banking system which are now around $2.2 trillion. and a gradual and predictable way. we have said that what we intend to do is, once we begin this, as we receive principal payments on treasuries and the agency securities in our portfolio, currently we are reinvesting all of those principal payments and we will begin to diminish our reinvestment, and only reinvest to the extent that our monthly receipt of principle exceeds the cap. the cap will start at low levels initially, 6 billion per month for treasuries at 4 billion per month for mortgage backed securities. over the space of one year, we billion for to $20 mortgage backed securities and $30 billion for treasuries. after a year of this process running, the caps will remain in place but only infrequently when there are unusually large redemptions of principle that take place

treasury department calls reckless disregard for u.s. sanctions on russia while secretary of state rex tillerson was the oil giant's c.e.o. this lawsuit was brought by the u.s. treasury department for this fine now it claims that the oil giant violated sanctions against russia when it signed contracts in may two thousand and fourteen with russian oil magnate igor sation chairman at the time of government owned energy giant rosneft us had blacklisted sation now the company says that the treasury had permitted an american c.e.o. to attend a board meeting with sation as long as it wasn't related to stations personal business the treasury department disagrees arguing that it never said there was an exception or carve out for the professional conduct of designated or blocked persons exxon sued the us government to stop this fine. and dozens of workers visas cost. his age to be have been requested from the labor department by the trump organization it would grant foreigners the right to work at two of the president's private clubs in florida t

bush treasury official -- g >> thank you very much. and would the witnesses for our hearing please come and take their seats and while they're doing that, senator shelby can't be here for his questioning time and so he's asked for just like a minute to make a quick statement. >> i'll be real quick today. i just want to say i won't be here. i've got to preside over a appropriation hearing. but i believe that president has sent us two goodnominees. i hope the hearing goes well and we can expedite the nominees and get them in place. thank you. >> thank you,senator shelby. all right. the hearing will come to order. this morning we'll consider the nominations of mr. joseph otting to be comptroller of the currency and randal quarrels to be a member of the board of governors of the federal reserve system and vice chairman for supervision of the board of governors of the federal reserve system. welcome to both of you. >> thank you. >> and congratulations to you on your nominations to the important offices. i see that you have friends and famil

treasury comebacks to look -- back to liquidity. treasuries. yen, the question for the fed, what do they say about balance sheet reduction? with a go for it for the next interest rate hike? number 2/10 of 1%. we have broken those gains. >> interesting to see russians saying that they are opposed to any cuts coming from that opec meeting, looks set to us -- take place later. let's get bloomberg first word news with juliette saly. the u.s. federal reserve could give clues about whether it will begin reducing its $4.5 trillion balance sheet before another rate hike. inicymakers lifted rates june, signaled one more hike this year. this bulb out how it would begin to gradually unwind. while janet yellen said the process could begin relatively soon, she left the precise timing and secret -- in secrecy, a mystery. >> russia said to be pushing back at deepening oil production cuts and will oppose the idea at an opec meeting later this month according to russian government officials. one said any further supply reductions so soon after the existing agre

department of the treasury. before that as an fbi counter terrorism analyst, we are glad to have you back with us today. finally, i would like to held come a senior fellow and director of the middle east security program at the center for a new american security. prior to cnas, he serveds as a chief of staff to the special envoy for israeli-palestinian negotiations at the u.s. department of state. he served as a senior professional state member covering middle east issues. he acted as one of the lead drafters of the syria transition support act, which provided additional authorities to arm the syrian opposition. the bill passed the senate foreign relations committee in may of 2013. ened i thank you for being here with us today. doctor, we will begin with you for your opening statement. >> madam chairman and members of the subcommittee, thank you for the opportunity to testify. as many of you know, we have been producing research and analysis on qatar since the erupt in spring of 2011. our critique has been consi

three months treasuries were higher than a 10 year treasury note.urrently, the spread between those two is 85 basis points with the 10 year higher than a three-month treasury. private economists and maybe fed officials assume you need a flat yield curve to produce a recession. say based on higher leverage in the private economy and what i would call proportionality in terms of an interest rate increase, that they don't need a flat yield curve to produce a recession. perhaps we have come a long way already in order to induce growth slowdown. scarlet: right. historical models may not be the best precedent for what we are experiencing now. obviously, every economic reversal, slowdown, and financial crisis is different than the last. why are borrowers with short front end a the risk to the economy right now? bill: they always have been, going back to the subprimes when rates were increased on junk. that was it in terms of the ability of an economy to withstand higher short-term rates. it's always the higher short-term rate and the flattening of the yiel