two-year treasuries, when you're treasuries, is where we are seeing the realtor pricing -- treasuriesis where we are seeing the real repricing. george: it hurts to see higher rates on the back end. for a long time people thought you would get an environment where the fed thought long-term rates would move. -- wouldn't move. it is good to see long-term rates going up. jonathan: bonnie, six month builds are where 10 year treasuries were in september. two-year notes are where 10 year treasuries were at the beginning of january. nie: the whole treasury curve has moved by 60 basis points year to date. what is the market pricing at? the market is in line with the fed this year, in terms of how many hikes the fed will do. giveneems reasonable, where the unemployment rate is and how growth is coming in. thatyou look farther out, is where it gets interesting. if you look at the five year yield, five-year sobered, the market is pricing in at 3.2%. if you compare that to the fed, their long run rate is two and 7/8. the market is more hawkish than the fed, which is what we have not seen in quite

the treasury announcement on the same day.w, george, the more important thing on fed day, the treasury announcement. >> it happens in the early morning. and we will be teed up. if there is an increasing supply, and they have to continue to do so, that mmay weigh -- >> you look at the tax reform, and whether growth, tax receipts can offset that. we've got supply to digest. where is it going to come? at the front end of the curve? then it will have curve implications. jonathan: is that what you are looking at more specifically? >> partly, but i think the markets are looking at the front end paper, understanding what happens for long-term issuance are what markets are looking for. >> if we are right about the dollar strengthening, if you are a foreign investor, treasury yields look pretty juicy. tack on a stronger currency, and that's -- jonathan: what you make of the treasury issuance we will hear about next week? >> there is that expectation we have to fund the stimulus. i also think it is attractive to overseas investors, even

jonathan: the other element that bob brings up is how treasuries behave in the risk mitigation of treasuriesnd whether that has diminished somewhat over the last three months. has it? i looked at equities getting smacked around and the treasury looking stable and i thought, maybe things aren't that bad and but is itry is wrong, story that treasuries are not behave as if they used to be? anupam: a little bit of shine has come of of treasuries, cash looks more attractive as a risk-free asset. but i think the market correlations between equities and treasuries has gone back to the traditional norm. there's massive risk aversion taking place, and you run into what is somewhat a safe haven, the treasury bet. i think the fed remains focused on financial conditions, and so does the market. if financial conditions are tightened due to sharp equity volatility, you may have a slower fed. george: uncertainty is the new certainty. the idea of trade tariffs and the headline of the day impacting equity markets but hasn't bled into the fixed income markets, and i think it is smart and strong for the next i

look at where the six-month bills are, two-year treasuries, one-year treasuries, that's where we are seeing a real repricing and -- repricing. >> we cannot be dismissive of rising rates. there have been issuance tied to rising rates, and general credit has a longer duration profile. i think it is important because for a long time people thought you would get an environment with the fed can lift short-term rates and long-term rates will move. the curve has flattened like a pancake. the long-term is going up as well. jonathan: we will work our way through the curve. bonnie, it looks like six-month bills is where treasuries were in september, and two-year notes are were treasuries were at the beginning of january. it's quite a move. >> it has been a remarkable move. the whole market has moved by 60 basis points year to date. you have to look at what the market is pricing in. what we are seeing for this year, the market is in line with the fed in terms of how many hikes the fed will do. that seems reasonable where unappointed is some of the unemployment rate is, and how growth is coming

are yielding what treasuries were in the beginning of january. >> the whole treasury move has movedy 60 basis points today. you have to see what the market is pricing in. essentially this year the market is in line with defend -- in line with the fed. that seems reasonable given where the unemployment rate is. when you look further out, to see the market pricing in is where it that gets interesting. if you look at the five year yield five years forward, the market is pricing in close to 3.2%. when you look at the fed, their is where it gets interesting. moreet rate is hawkish. lookmakes the front end interesting for the first time in a long time. jonathan: let's talk about that divergence between what the fed and thein the long-term markets. what do you think between the two? george: i think the curve is telling us maybe the terminal rate of this tightening cycle is less than what the fed thinks right now. i think it is the rate of change. 10 year yields have had roughly 100 basis points move in six months. that is a pretty significant move. the markets have to focus on some adverse

you don't see a big increase in treasuries significantly.e woke up wednesday morning stocks are down hard, and treasury down a couple of basis points. what is the action coming from treasuries and rates at the moment? bob: great question. our view is that we are seeing a decline in the scarcity value of treasuries, relative to the post crisis period were -- where central banks were buying a lot of treasuries at large-scale. this is clearly going the other way in the u.s. and there's less aggressive purchasing outside the u.s. more importantly, the fiscal impulse coming is increasing the treasury issuance substantially this year and the year after. combined with the balance sheet runoff, the issuance per treasury funding in a fiscal deficit is simply creating a more balanced supply and demand dynamic for high-quality assets than we have had at any point in the last eight years. clearly, the scarcity value of treasuries is declining. the sensitivity to risk off is declining. jonathan: just to dig into a couple of elements and there. the first

this is the treasury department scandal of 1864, my quick overview. ,he secretary of the treasury chase, up here and the republicans in congress instituted the greenback, a new uniform currency. 1862, clark was in the process -- in charge of the process of creating physical greenbacks. he hired men and women to do this. he hired a doctor to create a counterfeit-proof paper to discourage counterfeiters. new currency of questionable constitutionality printed in newlydominations on a created form of paper, made by women. people were not happy. chase and the republican dominated congress could not have this negative rumor going around. the greenback was not tied to it -- it was solely based on the integrity of the nation. if you did not believe in the treasury department, the greenbacks would not be worth much. thee is also eyeing republican nomination in 1864. he wanted his reputation squeaky clean. he hired baker. go in, tell me everything is great and the treasury. that is not what baker does. he immediately arrests a guy for embezzling, then arrests stuart guinn, making the counterfeit

two-year treasuries, when you're treasuries, is where we are seeing the realtor pricing -- treasuries, is where we are seeing the real repricing. george: it hurts to see higher rates on the back end. for a long time people thought you would get an environment where the fed thought long-term rates would move. -- wouldn't move. it is good to see long-term rates going up. jonathan: bonnie, six month builds are where 10 year treasuries were in september. two-year notes are where 10 year treasuries were at the beginning

absence of treasuries over the last month.hat has changed in the last week when the volatility came back up and the bid came back into treasuries. kathleen: the bid did come back. but when you look at the magnitude of the volatility, i would have expected a bigger rally. so i do think it speaks to the demand that is coming in temporarily. and i think we have to remain focused on the fundamentals. the data for the underlying economy is still positive. we are expecting a good jobs number. jonathan: yeah. kathleen: we have not seen wage group. things are really percolating underneath. jonathan: greg, i think this is a really good point that kathleen makes, and i thought the same thing a couple of weeks ago. i was quite surprised that treasuries only dropped lower by about 3-4 basis points on a 10-year yield. it was not so dramatic. why do you think that is? greg: positioning was such that everyone believes that rates are going to move higher. i think what has kind of reset the levels here is the persistence of equity vol. you see

a check with market treasuries.s bleed lower in the front and by acing the basis point, and curve flattening again as we come up, rather up, six basis points on a 30 year treasury. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: this is bloomberg "real yield" and it is time for the spread. we get testimony on facebook's mark zuckerberg, it might be the main event for some of you. to get minutes from the march look out for jpmorgan and citigroup, and the possible nafta deal announcement. various ratings on global cbi, including here in the u.s.. throughout these up -- to round -- let's wrap things up with the global economy performance. that it isd disappointing relative to expectations, if this global sciquest story we are sick of hearing about the turn of the year, what has changed? global pmi's hasn't changed, they are coming off of high levels. it little bit of tapering off is good for risk markets. some of the concerns about overheating and inflationary risks may die down. george: i agree, i don't think it has cha

matt: treasuries. rachel: bonds. matt: treasuries.han: russian or saudi debt of a similar maturity? craig: saudi. rachel: saudi. matt: saudi. jonathan: that was too easy. that does it for us. same time next week 1:00 p.m. in new york, 6:00 p.m. in london. yield." "bloomberg real this is bloomberg tv. ♪ scarlet: this is "bloomberg etf iq," where we focus on the assets, risks, and rewards offered by exchange traded funds. ♪ scarlet: diy investing -- the world documented love affair between millennials and etf is all well and good when you have a bull run, but what happens when a tech selloff hits the market? this is not your father's biotech fund. immunotherapy and other technologies drive one of 2018's best-performing non-leverage etf's.

is that weighing on treasuries as well? --ig: treasury yields want 2% last year.he rising debt isn't a new story. the markets are anticipatory. the rising yield was in anticipation of that, as well is what the fed is going to do with sheet.ance our rates have seen likely close to the highs for this year, maybe 2%. 3%. we don't see rates moving higher next year and we think they will hold for this year. will be dictated by fed policy. you will see short-term rates creep up and watch that flatter yield curve as we continue to move forward. jonathan: matt, is that what you see? do you see the flatter yield curve through the year? to what extent does the reaction change? people are so many expecting a high yield curve despite risk aversion the all square? -- elsewhere? matt: the long end, which is more driven by growth expectations -- rachel's point supply-demand is a very serious long-term concern, whether it is the social security trust fund, the fed balance sheet, whether it is deficits. run, we think that inflation expectations have actually peaked. i think that i

is that what is waiting on treasuries as well? -- weighing on treasuries as well?> i think markets are always somewhat anticipatory. the rising debt is not necessarily a new story. our view on rates is we likely have seen close to the highs this year. 295, maybe 3%. we don't see rates moving significantly higher into next year either. jonathan: where you on the front you on the front end? >> the front end will continue to be dictated by fed policy. that means a flatter yield curve. jonathan: is that what you see too, matt? do you see a flatter yield curve throughout the year? is that why so many people expect higher front yields despite risk aversion elsewhere? matt: divide the yield curve into two halves, the front that the fed influences, and the long end driven by growth influences and expectation. rachel's point on the supply demand is a serious long-term concern, whether it is social security fund having to sell, whether it is deficits. in the short run, we think inflation expectations have peaked. i think inflation going up is baked in the cake. i don't think

treasuries. the u.s. is so liquid and deep and there are few other places for china to put its money. you have others well versed in what happens in china warning that this was potentially something china may look at further down the line in any heated trade dispute if these trade tensions continue. you have the u.s. or chinese ambassador to the u.s. not ruling out looking at u.s. treasuries, so it is an does remain a concern, but for many it feels like a rest -- last resort move. treasury holdings picking up by $8.5 billion in february, china billion in.8 treasuries, making china the largest holder about japan, which comes in at number two bank. u.s. bulking up on treasuries as the u.s. is looking to sell more debt to cover the deficit as a result of tax cuts. betty: that's right. in tandem with this, the chinese currency has strengthened as it puzzling to hear president today calling china currency manipulator? of course he is going against what the u.s. treasury have said. they have not labeled china a

you end up with a flatter yield curve in the treasury market. ahead the final spread of , the week ahead featuring earnings from u.s. banks. that is coming up next. this is "bloomberg realyield." ♪ ♪ jonathan: i'm jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg realyield." it's time for the final spread. coming up over the next week, earning season in the u.s. is picking up with bank of america, goldman sachs, and morgan stanley reporting. plus the president of the united , states will be meeting with prime minister of japan shinzo abe. bank of canada will make a rate decision. and we get the fed book as well. still with me, craig, rachel, and matt. just time for some final thoughts. rachel, i want to go to you. i want to reflect on the final quarter as quarterly earnings come through. what has changed in the last three months, if anything at all? despite all the volatility we have seen in equities and global politics? rachel: that is just it, i don't think a lot has changed, and yet , the market has gotten very flustered at a pickup in equity volatility. hi

treasury yields breaking out lower. tesla debt falling back to earth.hey put a downgrade, cutting the pressure in putting march march. behind us looking forward to , april, we look ahead to payroll friday. we begin now with the big issue some stormy weather in shortsville. kevin: i tend to subscribe to the wisdom of crowds. when everybody got on that side of the trade where inflation was coming in 2% yield on the 10-year coming. it is an automatic slamdunk guarantee. the fed is going to raise four times. at that point i am like this , could turn. it just needs something to help it turn. eric: sentiment matters in markets. they can take a longer-term perspective. >> the most recent action in the 10 year treasury is more of a flight to safety, a flight to quality, in terms of this most recent move, the low to 2.8 met -- level. michael: quite frankly, i think there is a pain trade down to 2.64%. maybe 2.6% in the next few weeks there. i think people have to be aware of that. andrew: with risk assets looking for in terms of valuation, we actually think that

treasury secretary steven mnuchin. this is his first sit down interview since the nikki haley russia sanctions controversy which started back on sunday and blew up gradually over the week. so on sunday, hail chi is the u.s. ambassador to the united nations said that new sanctions would be imposed on russia within 24 hours. these sanctions would directly hit russian companies that manufacture any equipment linked to the poison gas attack april 7 in syria. france, the u.s. , and the uk blame the attack which killed 43 civilians on dictator bashar al-assad's government. well monday came and went, no sanctions and as the drum beat grew louder demanding when they would be announced national economic counselor director larry kudlow suggested publicly that ambassador hayley suffered "momentary confusion" over the trump adminitration's approach to new russian sanctions to which then ambassador hayley came back with all due respect i don't get confused. so, fast forward to today. we now are the first network to get the other si

treasuries.ntioned about inflation, we have had signs without commenting on the policy that they are willing to be the target for a certain amount of time and let the economy run. is that something you are relaxed about? stephanie: i think a little bit mr. mnuchin: -- mr. mnuchin: i think a little bit of inflation is a good thing. one of the aspects of the tax plan is we want wages to increase. eight years have not been great for the average worker and have not seen wages increase. a little bit of wage inflation is a good thing. energy prices have the potential to, as we become energy independent, i am not concerned about energy inflation, and there are lots of good signs on the horizon. they authorized 65% i think since last summer. and we have is necessarily seen a big amount of u.s. supply. a lot of people thought it would win prices went up, that u.s. surprise would be upsetting. are you worried about that affecting working households in the u.s.? mr. mnuchin: again, i would say that we have

so the treasury bill supply has been overwhelming the market, to some extent. and on top of that, you have got incentives from the tax reform that are encouraging money at the short end to be liquidated. so there is a lot of selling pressure that is going on at the short end that could continue to weigh on the market and push short rates higher. jonathan: greg, is that the reason you think the front end is broken? this dynamic at the front end? greg: that is a big piece of it. you are seeing all sorts of huge issues with libor, bill issuance, other factors around tax policy, and there is really no bid. jonathan: jim? jim: i think there are opportunities to get high quality carry or get some income on the front end of the curve. we do like the bank loan market. the more floating-rate instruments that you can buy at this time, there are opportunities that you can buy credit instruments globally and hedge back the dollar. you can get a pretty nice carry associated with that. at a period of time when you are seeing a lot of volatility, and certainly are seeing a re

you don't see a proportional move from equity into treasuries as we did a year ago. am trying to get a better understanding as to why treasuries don't have the same risk aversion characteristics, that safe haven quality they used to. what has changed? >> we are seeing the correlations between stocks and higher-quality bonds change. i think one of the reasons is we are getting more back to normal, more back to an inflation -- inflation mindset. clearly you are right. it does not feel risk-on, risk-off anymore. it feels as though things are moving in the same direction. that is causing problems for people. they may have too much leverage giving to volatility. there is no quick answer, and i think it is going to take a couple quarters at the earliest to see which way this falls. i think the inflation answer is the strongest right now. rachel: we don't disagree, although we think the more bullish case is possibly around the corner, that there is some technical and fundamental headwinds for the safe havens and particularly for the treasury asset class. you are seeing more

are reducing dollar shorts. >> are you sure treasury? -- short treasury?we have been reusing our treasury shorts. if you look at all the risk assets, on volatility adjusted basis, are you getting paid in the long treasury at this point, versus being line height yield -- long high yield. you are being compensated for the duration of risk. are you right now he? now?ere are you right shift in theng to course of this year to the belly of the curve as prices move higher. >> thank you so much. a big week this week in the treasury markets and the currency markets. bloomberg users can interact with the chart we just showed you on tv . chart helps you catch up on key analysis. we will be talking about more on global markets on tuesday. we will hear from big-name , including the ceo of thrive global and many more. stay tuned. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> this is "daybreak asia." >> a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. this company will hold a special at thelder meeting behest of the senate investor goldilocks. there are also plans to go ahead with a

or do treasury bonds have to decline?ubadra: i think that the bond yields are extraordinarily rich. inflation is slowly but surely picking up even though the forecast is calling for just a modest rise over the coming years. i think that bond yields -- bund yields are quite richer, given the fact that the european economy is doing much better. it is much higher in europe than it was in the u.s. jack: i agree. you have the qe that is messing up the relationships. that needs to happen. it needs to normalize, maybe later than originally said, but that needs to happen before you see this stuff normalize. i agree. these levels are way out of balance. lisa: here is the only problem. people have been saying this for week after week after week, and since the beginning of february, we have seen the total volume of negative yielding debt actually increase in the world, pushing a lot of investors investors to the u.s. and the u.s. credit markets in particular. so the ecb does not necessarily have to raise rates all that quickly. iain

utilities and real estate stocks compete with treasuries. treasury yields have risen, utilities and rates have dropped. with real estate stocks down about 9%. utilities are down about 5%. and the banks which generally do better, have outperfo the s&p 500 by about 2 1/2 percentage points this year, and would have gone even better had loan growth not been fairly an ic. >>> dow component walmart is close to making a bigqu ition. the world's largest retailer wants to spend billions of dollars to buy a major eom commerceny in india. that could pit walmart against ameaon. courtneyn has the details. >> india is the second most populated country in the world, with a m retailket valued at nearly $700 billion. along with china, india is one oflm t's key growth markets. it hardly does any business ehere today, that could changingrgoon. the est retailer is cse to spending billions to buy a majority steak in flip cart. the 11-year-old h marketpla more than 100 million users and 100,000 sellers shipping more than 8 million packages month. customers of wal

of treasuries because the currency has been moving.rned,redit is to me, there is a lot of uncertainty. the currency is still starting to be volatile because of sanctions. i would probably wait to see some stability for entering the market. lisa: meanwhile in emerging markets yet increasing amount of flow into local currency em. this is a huge but the dollar will continue to weaken. this is aou think good bet to go into local currency em, or are we seeing perhaps a start of a shift here? jack: em is still good. we are seeing really good flows into our em funds. the fundamentals are still pretty strong and hasn't turned to get of. there's a lot of fundamentals there that's the place should stay. lisa: em, are you still quite local currency em? and what isy agree, good is that russia is being treated socratic they -- some chronically. the feeling look at the broad-based young complex, it is north of the russian story, and that is because the fundamentals are strong. . they're strong global growth and china is doing well and oil prices are

treasury yields are a little lower.nk you, kenny guys, it's not necessarily the huge risk aversion we are seeing most of it in stocks >> off more than 700 points again. wow. what a week, month >> thanks for watching "power lunch reque lunch. >> "closing bell" starts right now. >> announcer: this is cnbc breaking news. market selloff >> yeah, quite a selloff it is hi, everybody. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. >> i'm wilfred frost good afternoon stock sinking down more than 740 points at the low of the session. we're just fractionally above that level at the moment now >> exactly this has just happened in the last hour or so. we can attribute it to maybe some comments coming out of the white house. we'll get to all of that, though let's see where we stand the dow and s&p are having their worst day in two weeks with nearly 3% drop for the dow down

treasuries were little changed. i want to get to our mliv team to mark cranfield and ask about treasuries, there has been a question i have been repeating to everybody. why don't we see treasury yields higher amidst this geopolitical risk? -- lower. -- aren't people buying more bonds? the fed statement is relatively hawkish. one of the key things was more fed members were saying that policy may need to become restrictive. that indicates they may be ready to increase the pace of the hikes which are priced into the market. amusing forthing people to digest but it is happening at the same time that we have the situation that the u.s. and other countries will start to hit syria. the risk of it spilling over into something worse between the u.s. and russia. although geopolitical things are going on in the background, we still have not solved the spat between the u.s. and china. the fed is moving toward an even tighter policy. that is a lot for people to digest in the bond market. what we did see is flattening in the yiel

i think the story now is treasury. of what happened last month, the amount of bills that were stuffed into the market, if you look up happened to libor, will have to find another trillion dollars over the next three years. how can anyone say you are not worried about the amount that has to come to the market? for is nott we push so much acceleration or growth or the fed moving faster. the system has to sort a tremendous amount of debt. i think the world needs to shift from the fed is always going to be important, but it's treasury that will be critical for the markets over the next couple of years. manus: what is the risk of bond indigestion? china might going of bondwhat is the risk indigestion? there is just more and more and more to come. rick: the risk is high. it's an interesting dynamic about where we are today, literally today in the markets because we had this seasonal play of pension funds that come into the market. life insurance companies need to put money into the market. the first quarter of the year is wh

from the analyst but treasury perspective, what we are seeing from measure is selling or treasuries becausecurrency has been moving. concerned,redit is to me, we're still under a lot of uncertainty. the currency is still volatile because of sanctions. i would probably wait to see some stability before entering the market. flow increasing amount of into the local currency. this is basically a huge bet that the dollar will continue to weaken. jack, do you think that this is still a good bet to go into a local currency or are we seeing some start of a shift here? flowsre seeing really of into our funds. the fundamentals are still pretty strong. as negative.ned there are a lot of fundamentals that say this is the place you should stay. ia i was fully agree. measure has been treated very idiosyncratically. hold -- whole the broad-based comparatively, the fundamental are so strong. you have strong global growth. you have china doing well. actually, those high real yields you see a lot of the faces of the emerging markets are looking attractive to people. i would agree with that. >> i want to shif

stocks plunging after the ten-year treasury yields across 3% mark. points, finishing lower for a fifth day in a row and that wasn't even the low of the day. global markets taking a cue from u.s. this morning. european indices down across the board. cac down two thirds of a percent and the dax in germany down 200 points. that is my .5%. right across the board as well, down better than 1%. earnings of focus on wall street as well before the bell this morning its stock is down. twitter also this morning on pace come expecting a strong quarter due to rising at sales for the stock is down better than 3% going into those numbers. "after the bell," facebook reporting for the first time since the company's data scandal broke. why investors are watching this this afternoon trades.down a quarter of a percent right now. president trump hosting french president emmanuel macron for his first white house state dinner last night during a bilateral meeting earlier in the day. leaders spoke about everything from national security to getting tough on

yieldss you the treasury .se spreads are at the lowest level since 2007, and for market watchers, some say that is a recession, raising if not a red , at least a flag yellow flag that recession is coming. what do you think? been a bond market participant since the beginning of my career, and i started my career as a bond trader. i have great respect for the bond market. it's the bond market predicting what i believe will occur, which i think the fed has been, i think, a bit reckless and cavalier in announcing what they hope to achieve, which is as eight rate increases over the next two years. ishink that the bond market extremely skeptical, and i think they believe that there will be a correction in pricing, that will causelundering a correction in economic vibrancy. think they are forecasting that in the way they are trading different parts of the yield curve. betty: where do you see the direction of quality going? we have seen toys "r" us, strapless when it comes to retail as well as the hotel sector. what do

i heard the imf is no revising figures upwards, and our treasury is also revised upwards. i am hoping to revise mine upwards as well. i think it is possible. mark: so president speaking to bloomberg's guy johnson in london. news on air and on tictoc on twitter. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. is 1:30 p.m. in new york. i am vonnie quinn. shery: welcome to bloomberg markets. ♪ vonnie: here are the top stories on bloomberg and around the world. yourcing on earnings, stocks and treasures lowers with a mixed bag of earnings. metal mayhem, traders speculating that other russian companies could be targeted a u.s. sanctions. and tensions between two firms ramp up. julie hyman is with us halfway into the trading day. some mixed to nondirectional this morning. many of whom, as you say, reported earnings, and the dow is the weak link trading a little in the red. nasdaq holding solid gains. we see a diversion's and names in the dow versus some of the other upstarts and new economy tech companies. let's look at the dow, ibm is largely responsible in part for after theakness toda

if you look at treasuries, it is interesting.n the yield in the u.s., this is a three-day chart, and there was no trading on friday. yields came back down as investors bought bonds at the end of the day. we are not looking at much movement in the yields. 2.74%, very little change in u.s. why are investors fleeing to the safety of u.s. government debt? guy: we will talk about that throughout the program. it was a big down day, the nasdaq suffering. the text selloff continues. the s&p is feeling the pressure. matt has given you some of the facts in terms of the performance. it is not the stock some of the bulls were looking for. below itsosing momentum 200 day moving average. the momentum is fading, but the positive story is tax cuts are reporting a result of season will be good. the german and swedish numbers are old. where we came through on thursday. the aussie dollar is up. the canadian dollar is trading higher. the bloomberg dollar index is trading down. we want to show you what is happening with gold. we are catching that muc

treasuries.ike any of that is realistically being considered? china, their vice minister of finance said recently they have a lot of tools at their disposal. unlike us where we have a leader who spouts off about all of the things that he can do to china. china is keeping its cards close to its chest. so they have introduced retaliatory tariffs on the u.s. exports. american say what the big deal, china is our third rapidly growing export market so that hurts. they are the biggest foreign holder of u.s. treasuries. we have a lot of treasury auctions coming up over the next several years as the cbo indicated. we will need for and buying. maybe china doesn't sell treasuries, but maybe they won't participate in the auctions will be coming up. the in just has the ministration given any thought to that whatsoever? wedo they cavalierly make will run this big budget deficit and what choice to the chinese have? we do not have an administration making strategy towards china. theya lot of accusations level.

president wants to make sure they don't change these plans and he's watching it. >> although the treasury report from a few days ago said that china recently has been actively trying to prop up its currency and not let it fall below those issues >> it's a warning shot to make sure that china doesn't devalue the currency as they have in the past >> you're not handicapping anything for me. can you handicap the likelihood that some of the most punitive tariffs actually go into effect? or does something happen to solve some of these issues before then? >> well, i'm not in the handicap business. >> are you optimistic? larry kudlow seems to think -- larry has always talked people down off the ledge about trade wars are you optimistic there's a method to what's happening here? no one wants a trade war >> i am completely larry and i were together yesterday. we were with the president as i said, he's involved in these discussions and all the specifics. and, you know, as i've used the word i'm cautiously optimistic. you'll know when we have a deal. >> if you go anywhere else, we hope you don't, but

it will be the first trip for mnuchin as treasury secretary. trump has a radically changed his tune on north korea. writing kimafter jong-un as little rocket man, he's not complementing him as very honorable. they meetat he hopes very soon. it is a dramatic u-turn for the u.s. which has long condemned the kim dynasty for brutality and human rights violations. despite his warmer tone, the president so had a strong message. president trump: get rid of their nukes. makeuld be easy for me to a simple beyond claim victory but i don't want to do that. i want them to get rid of their nukes. >> reported to have launched in the section of data scandal act of a steal. they have subpoenaed documents from the company relating to years of quality reports. you have agreed to work with the tokyo metropolitan police department on a joint inquiry. targeting youtube with a new mobile version of the free music service. he hopes to persuade the users to upgrade. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i'm jessica summers. thi

the irs and the treasury department. in february the treasury department released a guidance plan which listed 18 items under the initial implementation of the tax cuts and jobs act. acting commissioner carter, can you provide the committee an update on how this process is going? whether there is a timeline for these provisions? when should we expect new information on these matters need guidance concerning deductions under section 1998. >> immediately upon enacting of the tax cuts jobs act we started to approach tax reform in the processed approach. we sought stakeholder input as part of the process. we've mapped out with mapped out all the forms that needed to be amended and updated and publications that need to be changed. will need to amend 450 tax forms and publications to implement the act. we expect to have new forms drafted and the end of april. most new instructions drafted by the end of may. the plan is to release the forms of instructions over the summer for taxpayers and tax advisors to review and comment on.

treasury earlier this week. the aluminum industry is marked by great uncertainty. .everal factors surround us on --. the sanction it is a demanding situation. it is quite exciting times. crazy,he price has been down for a fifth day. concerns ease about these .isruptions it has wiped away half of its gains. a couple of days ago, people were talking about $3000. is that once that too far? after the decision taken to postpone sanctions towards companies like --, it is now postponed. compensatere time to for what can happen. we expect they will find a market for the metal. it will be a displacement of the mental balance in the world. if they are not taking down changing theis not global balance. today, we are in a balance situation. there could be a deficit in 2018. mark: how many weeks of aluminum stock do you have? how soon might you have to shut if the brazilian issues are not resolved. there is not much aluminum available in the market. there have been a couple of cargo exported from china. if you look at the si

treasury holdings. yvonne: we are perplexed by that ethics tweet saying that this is defying what we heard from the treasury a day ago. tos going to be interesting see these gdp numbers come out of china. what this will mean for the renminbi as well. we continue to see the economy firing on all cylinders as well. you need that extra ammunition to use as monetary options in this trade spat with the u.s.. betty: let's take a look at how s ended with a lack of trade tensions that help the markets move higher today. the s&p up .8%. the dow adding 200 points. the nasdaq also rising as well. earnings back in focus, yvonne. that giving a little bit of lift as asia begins trade. yvonne: focus back on the earnings, the fundamentals. also, the u.s. halting their plans on these sanctions on russia. a little bit of a relief rally as well. looking at new zealand right now, we are seeing downside when it comes to equities. down .1%. we mentioned the dollar holding onto those losses after the tweets from president tru

with the move we have seen this week in 10 year treasury yields.t has been a market climb upwards back towards that 3% threshold. do you think are going to cross it? end offorecast for the the year is actually 3%. , andink that we get to 3% it really depends on the trajectory of hikes. the feds will probably hike in june and september, but behind that i think hikes are a limited. we could temporarily push above 3%, but not a sustained think. >> everybody is sticking with me. we have lots more coming up. coming up, the auction block. russia makes a return to the bond market. this is bloomberg real yield. ♪ >> i am lisa in for jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg real yield. i want to head to the auction block now. russia makes its return. also, after canceling an auction .ast week, over in the middle east, qatar and saudi arabia raised a combined $23 billion. bond sales have climbed to $46 billion this year. that is the most since 2007. still with me is jack flaherty and ian steely. with talkingrt about when bond investors are actually going to get con

treasury. administration is issuing more treasuries and the yield curve is steepening.tors want to hide in other areas and eventually, there is too much dollar allocations. nceb patiec get this week, are the higher rates in the u.s. starting to override negative dollar comments from the trump administration? alberto: let us think about the long run. there has been four in the last 20%. around 12% -- around 10.5 milliond dollars. when the euro crisis started. trillion back to euros. i think there is a structured allocation. countriesin saving which are now mostly emerging market countries want alternatives. manus: alberto, will stay with us. coming up, crude is climbing to levels not seen since 2014. why are investors pouring into oil? anna: a little word on what is coming up later on bloomberg television. the lloyd's of london ceo will be joining us. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ it has just gone 9:18 in dubai. let us look at the equity boards. when will we headed and trade through 3%? all going up for the right reasons according to jp morgan asset management. dubai is uphat -

-- own, two-year or 30 year treasuries? ian: 30 year. subadra: two-year. jack: 30 year.al question, when does the u.s. yield curve invert? jack: soon. subadra: i don't think the yield curve invert's in the cycle. ian: back end of this year, early next year. lisa: my sincere thanks to jack flaherty from gam, subadra rajappa from societe generale, and ian stealey from jpmorgan asset management. it forw york, that does us. we will see you next friday at 1:00 p.m. new york time, 6:00 p.m. in london back with jonathan ferro. from new york, this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ ♪ i'm scarlet fu. iq." s bloomberg "etf scarlet: gold bugs rejoice. when investors turn nervous on equities, they tend to rotate the gold. what does this show in this rush into gold etf? yale university sets the standard for endowments with its almost 12% annual return over five years, but according to one analyst, the yell model is not something others can replicate.