request approval from the treasury. lawhe extent permitted by or additional funds appropriated by congress. we will see if they are resuscitated. we thank you so much for jumping on -- for jumping on the phone with us. a different kind of conversation. joe: let's return to a market that does not care about any of this. that does not need any new issuance or a federal reserve or a change of policy or anything like that. bitcoin seeing a massive surge. let's bring in nick carter. you guys do not worry about any of this, right? no one in bitcoin has to worry about treasury fed cooperation to keep the issuance going. >> i think we worry about it to a certain extent. i think everybody is focused on what inflation is going to do in the next decade or so. romaine: interesting. how does inflation trend impact the way you look at crypto yucca a lot of in the -- crypto? >> a lot of investors see bitcoin as an inflation hedge. that is something a lot of investors and allocators seem to be concerned about these days. it remains to

that optionality still does remain with the next treasury secretary. quite as expansive after january 1, 2021, but the notion that it is terminated or needs approval is not rooted in any basis of the cares act itself . caroline: could this get bound up in legality? even if there is this opportunity, small as it might be, for treasury secretary janet yellen to make the most of it, could she faced the political waratwrath of the republicans? skanda: you've already seen senator to meetwillie-- sen-- se statement,elease a not based on anything in the cares act. i was at the table, therefore this is what the cares act means -- sort of a bizarro, not a very conservative view of how to interpret the law, you just going to make up what the purposes are supposed to be post hoc because donald trump is not going to be the president anymore, these powers go away. it is quite reckless, i would argue. it does not tie the hands of the next treasury secretary, because mnuchin is doing something that would be in violation of the cares act by moving this to the general

treasury and the federal reserve.ank is pushing back against secretary steven mnuchin, who has asked it to return any unspent stimulus money when the program has expired. >> i was a bit surprised. i have to say that right after the announcement, the federal reserve board came out with a statement expressing their interest in extending them, to keep them available. that's pretty much where i am. , and where the economy is there is so much uncertainty still out there, it is prudent to keep those things open so if people do have stress, they can draw upon it. was rafael bostic -- bostic expressing his surprise at this tension. joining us is simon french. if the experience is quite useful at this point, to be able to see things from a number of vantage points. we have this tension between the fed and u.s. treasury. attention around just how much support must be given to credit markets. we saw the way that fed action managed to bring down credit spreads in march and remove some of that tension from markets. are we in dange

from the fed to the treasury. biden looks set to nominate janet yellen, a supporter of more fiscal spending, as his treasury secretary. she was the first female fed chair. if confirmed, she'd be the first woman to head the treasury. plus, the dax gets the biggest makeover since its inception, increasing the index to 40 members, with tougher rules on reporting and profitability. good morning and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. tom keene is in new york. tom, the markets are pretty quiet at the moment. a sigh of relief that they got through for the moment not only a treasury secretary picked, which we are still waiting for confirmation of, but multiple sources have said it is janet yellen. they are also siding because for the first time in three weeks, there is acknowledgment of the transition. the transition process starting to kick in. tom: not only the good news, but just as much as there was no bad news today, and that gives a lift to equities and other adjustments in the marke

now she will be the first female treasury seth. or nominated to the treasury secretary. formerly with the -- she was the chair at the council of economic advisers she has a little bit of the political experience the question is whether or not that is herren have. her strength is economics, monetary policy. whether or not she's -- she has certainly been bested i want to say by the current fed chair, jay powell, when it comes and to politicking and dealing with congress and getting congress on your side. i am not sure janet yellen was the best at that in that position this. job as treasury secretary will demand more of her in that regard you will also remember, wilf back when she was the fed chair in 2014 she followed ben bett bernanke of elevating the issue of inequality that the federal reserve was following. she was criticized by some republicans in congress for making that a federal reserve issue. but certainly she would be supported by progressives, and understands economics and the banking system i have a hard time believing that your friends, the bankers will have t

we have vaccines and transitions and a treasury secretary.ng to show our viewers a map which is on bloomberg.com this morning and it is a map that has the details of nearly 6 million people facing eviction in next two months in the united states of america. 18 million adults are behind in mortgage and rent payments. this is the underbelly of covid. this is the economic reality. are we overly ebullient and bullish on the u.s.? >> clearly, there are risks. i think one thing that biden is going to have to decide is whether to implement a lockdown in u.s. we know that he is more cautious than trump was in the management of covid. and clearly, yes, the real economy is going to come under pressure. it is already under pressure in you know, globally. there will be bumps along the road. you need to take a step back and look at the bigger picture. the bigger picture is that the recovery, obviously with the vaccines on the horizonan is becoming more tangible. you know, previously it felt like it was an open ended crisis. really no end in sight. the dif

how the markets yellen going into the treasury. it signals something about what biden intends and the fiscal policy. you still face the senate realities and the actual clarity around what that reality is until early january in some of those runoffs. should markets position around janet yellen? >> yes, absolutely. i think that kind of explains a little bit about why markets are take within the yellen supposed appointment tentatively at the moment. there are a few factors playing in. i think the first positive is that it was only just last week we had a public spat between the current treasury and fed. t is going to be great news janet yell season seen as working very much in tandem with the central bank. more coordinated policy set-ups. janet yellen is pro stimulus and would be perceived and as being in favor of higher tax rates. anna: yes, there is lots to establish there in what that means. what about where we are on the f.x. markets. the dollar weaker once again keeping with that risk-on vibe that we're seeing in other asset clas

the treasuryed is by the debt and the deficit? i think we are seeing republicans bring that out again. not an issue in terms of the economics of it. i think it really depends. i think we have to see what happens in georgia. even if the republicans get both seats, there are people to work with on the moderate side. they don't need that many. they only a couple of votes. we've got some well-crafted policy with some benefits for the economy, i think they will be able to find enough partnership to get some things through. we know mitch mcconnell is the expert at blocking everything, but i think again, we have narrowed the margin a little bit. i am not as convinced that they are going to be absolutely hamstrung on getting anything done, or that they are going to be able to just throw the debt and deficit in the roadblock for everything. pollyanna here, but i am not known for that, so i think yellen is going to, especially now. we need some stuff done. the vaccine news is fantastic area that gives scope for actually getting to a better

question 1 and qe2 and qe3 after massive stimulus saw the top in treasury prices. massive stimulus, that's already priced in right now. i think there will be a path of least resistance, lower for

money for several fed lending programs that rely on treasury's backing.es later, the fed put out its own message urging that all of the lending facilities be kept in place. mnuchin told bloomberg that companies do not need more loans, they need more money which must come from congress. congress is getting close to a deal on a one point $5 trillion spending bill that would avert a government shutdown next month. nancy pelosi and mitch mcconnell met to hash out details. talks are separate from negotiations on another coronavirus release -- release bill. joe biden says he has picked a treasury secretary and he promised an announcement either next week or the week after. the president-elect said the choice will be accepted by all members of the democratic party, from progressive to moderate. among the names being mentioned, roger berkson and former fed chair janet yellen. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more i am ritikantries, gupta. this is bloomberg. tom? tom: not to turn i

powell saying the fed will return unused money to treasury, has asked. out around the time yesterday that treasury, asking the fed to return money from their lending program. they're going to return it. the question is what does this mean for the fed's ability to deploy emergency lending? romaine: it also means where this money goes. steve mnuchin really trying to make the case that they are to be a better use for that money if it is put in the hands back in the treasury. we were on the phone with him yesterday. he was saying the companies that are impacted by covid such as travel and restaurants, etc., they don't need any more debt. that is what the fed program would do. they need more ppp money. they need more grants. he talked about basically there is a better way to distribute this money. talking about a man who effectively has two months to pull this off so interesting to see what the plan is. joe: let's bring in the bloomberg managing editor for asia economy and government, but following this story. chris, thank you for joining us. what do we know

is in ay of treasury position that.ou could say she has been getting schooled, and she is ready to execute. caroline: ready to execute on the politicking. you have written about this at length, that people, in particular america suffers when we see economics and politics aside. i was mentioning before the break that the roadblock named mcconnell who will still be in the road and less the democrats take those two seats in georgia. so there will be a lot of hard negotiation for sure. there is no doubt about that. it is not like janet yellen will just be able to go to president x, y and say, we should do , z, and he says that will be great, and they go to congress and passes. joe: presuming that mcconnell remains his role in the senate, depending on the georgia runoff, eight is going to be tough. in your view, are there potential areas for compromise, ways in which stimulus could be paired with some republican priority that would help break the logjam. everyone thinks it will be tough, but will it be mobile? -- will it be

are we moving treasury away from wall street?eric: i think that is true, but i think the real issue is getting someone who is competent. it is reasonable to have a wall street person in treasury. that is not always the case. one of the things that is key about janet, she is not just an academic. this is someone who has been involved in policy work for a long time. she was an academic for quite a while. i met janet when she was an assistant professor at harvard over 40 years ago. trenches been in the and almost all of the key policy jobs. she was governor of the federal reserve. the president to the federal reserve in san francisco which is when i interacted with her quite a bit because i was a governor at the time. at every fomc meeting we would have lunch or dinner together. she understands policy, she has been involved in that world at the top levels for 20 years. she knows her stuff. i have some different political views. she is to the left of where i am, but on economics we never had any big disagreements. she thinks hard abo

now secretaryed, of treasury. is very good at trying to build relationships across the aisle, in congress, a very goodshe has focus on really trying to get things done. how difficult -- it does seem that we are at a juncture, right? it is lower for longer, you have concern about exactly what monetary policy can do. how much coordination could she actually do with the fed? how does it work? is this going to be a new tandem force that will be -- that we will be reckoning with? naturalt is a very conversation because she and jay know o each other very well. it will keep policy accommodative through this challenging time, and exactly as the quotation that you had from janet said, she understands that monetary policy is superpowerful in certain realms, but it is by no means all-powerful. it requires a foundation for recovery, but unless you have appropriate health policy and fiscal policy, you will not be able to have a sustained recovery, and i think she's going to understand that well and be able to articulate that w

ahead, then, treasury pig. we discussed.his is bloomberg. ♪ caroline: today, we are focused on the small pieces of certainty returning to the u.s. political and economic front. today, we got another hand. president-elect joe biden going to name former fed chair janet yellen is the next treasury secretary. for me, glass shattering once again. first female at the fed, first female at the treasury to helm it. she may once again unite the decision-making forces of the federal reserve and treasury. joe: timing coming just a week after mnuchin pulling the plug. as you mentioned, extraordinary career. if confirmed, will basically have a track record. federal reserve bank of san francisco. an extraordinary run for janet yellen. once again, we get her fashion flavor back in vogue. it is really about how she will steer. market reaction, the market reacted to the headline and were pleased. joe: she presided over a boom, she is a known quantity. pick,re on the yellen josh wingrove. the policy that emerged over this choice over the last

the treasury secretary against federal reserve chair.ill this play out >> what is interesting is that they work closely together for much of this crisis, and now the fed and the treasury publicly, and i've never seen this before, parting ways yesterday with a surprise decision by steve mnuchin not to extend several of the fed's emergency lending programs so as a result, programs that backed up the muni and corporate bond market and also loans to medium sized businesses, they used funds from the c.a.r.e.s. ability and they will now expire at the end of december and in practice, they will probably close done before that since the fed needs time to wind them down. mnuchin in a letter to powell said i am requesting that the federal reserve return the unused funds to the treasury so the $429 billion that the fed now has to give back would have backed up more than $4 trillion of loans into the economy. the fed in a rare public rebuke of the treasury responded, quote, the federal reserve would prefer that the full suite of emergency facilities

the treasury has all sorts of responsibilities.hen it comes to the overlap between treasury and the banking sector, what should we know? next treasury secretary has a norma's challenges in front of him or her. the good news is janet yellen is better equipped than nearly anybody to tackle those challenges. in terms of near-term priorities -- vonnie: specifically on the intersection between banking and treasury, as opposed to the sec or other agencies? jeremy: the treasury secretary occupies a unique role in that he or she coordinates with the other regulatory agencies. what their regulatory policies are likely to be. the treasury secretary chairs the oversight council set up -- vonnie: we may have to jump in. i'm terribly sorry. we will come back to you but we have to get to the president-elect joe biden on cabinet choices. national-elect biden: security positions in my administration. it is a team that will keep our country and our people safe and secure. a team that reflects the fact that america is back, ready to lead the world,

what is driving direction of treasuries?e are probably not going to get any negative stimulus anytime soon. on the other hand, jobs report came in better than expected. down below 7% on the unemployment rate. back to something resembling full employment sooner than expected. which force is stronger? >> i think you really nailed the two sides of the scale, the push and pull sides. on one hand, we have presumably lower supply. , rumor is that mr. biden and mr. mcconnell have had a good working relationship, but i'm assuming the odds of a large stimulus package are lower. the odds of a large infrastructure spending package are also lower. that means a lot less lower long-duration. we've got bubbling economic low.h from a cycle as we approach that, you would rise --nterest rates the interest rate rise hasn't been taken off the table. romaine: i am curious if you could talk more. we have focused heavily on stimulus and treasury issuance. there has been a bet about where we are in the economic cycle, whether this is a new economic

treasury and the federal reserve. the focus is also in europe on negotiations on brexit, ongoing after some parts of the negotiations are temporarily paused because a negotiator tested positive. 10-year fore spanish bonds and portuguese bonds ever lower. yesterdayorld shifted in the united states of america. we are on the cusp of a constitutional crisis. i have no idea in america how friday is going to work. the president is clearly inserting himself on a constitutional basis into the state crisis in michigan, and into wisconsin. what i'm watching friday is simple. vice president pence travels to georgia. it will be fascinating to see if he makes public comments on this contested election. absolutely, tom, and we are also trying to find out what the next step is. let's get to first word news in new york city with ritika gupta. ritika: good morning. another legal setback in president trump's bid to overturn joe biden's election victory. last night a federal judge denied a request to halt georgia's certification of its

as a former treasury official myself. crossed for a woman. i would have to give the odds to janet yellen at this point. >> let me ask you about the role of the treasury secretary other than signing money. there are important things that the treasury secretary has to do in normal times but in this particular time where we've not had an extension of the relief bill and it's stuck in the republican controlled senate, the role we are seeing treasury secretary mnuchin play is he's in negotiations with nancy pelosi to come up with a deal. whether you like him or not, that is now a key role of the next treasury secretary. they're going to be in negotiations with congress, both the house and with the republican controlled senate. that's a different skill set than is normally required for the treasury secretary. >> well, that's true but one that i think potential future secretary yellen could fulfill. she's used to navigating with congress given the congressional scrutiny that the fed gets for any fed chair. you ha she will not ju

treasury and the federal reserve. in europe on negotiations on brexit, ongoing after some parts of the negotiations are temporarily

treasury secretary is not like that whatsoever. the middle of one political maelstrom after another and that's assuming she'll be the new secretary of the secretary, that's janet yellen's new life. >> alan, it's david. back to the actual idea of relief, a stimulus, whatever you want to call it. what's your take on the state of the u.s. economy as we sit here right now with the pandemic spreading, unfortunately, and how much really you think would be the right number in terms of aid to obviously businesses and potentially states and municipalities >> so the state of the economy right now is pretty good, but teetering. you know, there are data lags but if you look at some of the near-term indicators, including google mobility and many other things and i just heard from your broadcast about the richmond fed and there are lots of little tea leaves the tea leaves are looking a little piqued right now and it's not a shock. the shock to me is how well the economy was hanging in there, despite the upsurge in covid it may be giving up the g

janet yellenahead, has's pick for treasury.he former fed chair will be the first woman in the position if confirmed by the senate. we will discuss what that means for markets, state street global market strategist will be joining us next. this is bloomberg. ♪ shery: janet yellen is poised to attain her next major milestone in a long line of achievements. the first woman to become treasury secretary the united states. kathleen hays is here with the latest. yellen head janet of treasury actually mean for policymaking? kathleen: i would start by saying it will have a lot to do with whatever a president joe biden wants to see for the economy, wants to see for the banks, wants to see for taxes. the treasury secretary serves the president. one of his key cabinet members. at the same time, we know that janet yellen has important attributes that i think her supporters around joe biden figure she brings to the table. remember, she was at the federal reserve when the economy slid into the recession and became the great recession. when we

should we be more bulli isish -- about the markets knowing yellen could be treasury secretary? >> i think what's equally important, you brought up the relationship she's going to have on capitol hill what it will look like since she's supposed to be non-political figure i think what dan said is important, the relationship she's going to have at the fed and people she know there's is equally as important let's remember, the senate is still run by republicans so what can and cannot be done is a huge elephant in the room, if you will. so i think, the market should be excited about this it's an acceptable choice. not only for the democrats, but for the republicans. i think this is as close to a non-event choice as president-elect biden could have made so i think it's a great choice for the market >> about a dozen republicans voted in her favor during her confirmation as fed person, that's important to bring forward through the next set of hearings guy, your take on this pick? >> yeah the market likes it and the fact you have elizabeth warren on one side singing the praises of that

other big washington story, president-elect biden expecting to name janet yellen as his pick for treasury secretary and elon musk just got even wealthier, the tesla ceo passing bill gates to become the world's second richest person. it is tuesday, november 24th, and "squawk box" begins right now. >>> good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box." i'm becky quick along with mike santoli and andrew ross sorkin joe is out today this is something to check out this morning because we're seeing some additional gauins at this hour. dow up by 311 points and that is because of a lot of things that have been happening, the political winds that are shifting, the biden transition getting access to government funds, we'll talk more about that in a moment and of course the choice that we are hearing for the new treasury secretary. and we'll talk more about that in a moment as well. yesterday you did see the dow up by over 300 points, a gain of 1.1% and that puts the dow at this point on track for its best month that we've seen since january of 1987. but it is not even the best performer when you sta

now you have treasury secretary mnuchin asking for a refund. that is shocking because one of the steady things we have had throughout this turmoil has been steady market support. if companies lose their access to capital, that comes a distressed -- that comes in distress for equities, but so far we have seen credit spreads tight, well-behaved, both in investment grade and the high yield markets. . so as long as that can remain capped, we think equity volatility remains muted. jonathan: good to catch up, as always. thatve to imagine secretary mnuchin has the best of intentions around this. he is looking to deploy some fiscal ammunition. i just find the communication around it to be really come on the -- really clumsy. two individuals that have been on the same page suddenly start to split. tom: we are not in the job of speculation, but the speculating of the speculation is was he ordered to do this, or did he do it unilaterally? what was the why of this? i would suggest that is a mystery today. maybe it gets solved today. maybe it doesn't, with

the banks and so one way to look at it if you look at you know bank holdings of treasury securities they're at multi decade highs right now so basically instead of lending to the broad public banks are buying treasuries and lending to the federal government and then the federal government is basically you know running these big deficits and getting it out you know in some ways to the public so basically banks are lending but through all their only choosing the absolute safest assets rather then going out and lending to small businesses and other things like that of course it comes and individual banks to some banks you know these large money center banks for example are very different than a small regional bank specialize in certain types of loans many of them for example at mit caught out in bad energy loans right there are some banks that specialize in that and they've been you know by basically making all those loans that so there they were punishment for actually doing the loans whereas other banks it is holding back and not lending at all so it really comes down to individual b

steven mnuchin, the treasury secretary and jim cramer on "squawk on the street. it begins right now. >> good morning and welcome to "squawk on the street. carl has the morning off let's give you a look at futures as we get ready to begin trading, last trading session of the week sloogtly l l slightly lower open. steven mnuchin will be with us, he'll explain the decision to cut the fed's emergency lending power, some of the programs, of course, that began back in march. and as pfizer and biontech move to request emergency authorization for their covid vaccine, we're going have the head of operation warp speed with us, he will discuss the path forward and so important, the distribution of said vaccine, jim, all of this and the backdrop of worsening covid cases, we talk about it every day. we need to i'm starting, i don't know what you're hearing, i'm starting to see anecdotal evidence that things are slowing down a bit in the economy. >> i'm getting that too. i'm getting people who are saying, i really would want to make a big spend, this is in terms of the big tec

so in the bond market, this is what the 10 year treasury should be. instead, for their part the soc gen analysts using a mix of wheat glee, macro economic indicators running back to 2005 took a stab at estimating the effect of the fed's bond buying effort. on the benchmark, 10 year treasury yield, no, they concluded that q.e. likely knocks around 180 basis points or $1.00 percentage points off the 10 year yield. so again, putting it into this historical context, the 10 year yield in an american economy that is capitalist and is foundationally constructed on a central bank and banking system feeding into the not for normal class. the long term rates are traditionally, and you can make a strong case for them to be without equivocation around 4 to 5 percent. that give savers enough money to save for retirement if they work hard in the economy. when the fed started buying back these bonds and dropping raise to near 0, they transferred trillions of cash from savers. you know your mom and your dad out there. they probably have grandpa, they called you up an

in the treasury market, can you do the same thing? i think many people are struggling with an answer to that right now. caroline: it is going to be so telling what we hear coming from fed chair powell in the next week, what we hear from treasury secretary mnuchin, and what we alan blinder last week, that what treasury secretary mnuchin, he called it mean, called it crazy, the fact that it has gotten a little bit harder to have that safety net in terms of programs to support small to medium-sized enterprises, programs that supports municipals. but the insurance policy was there. how will we see janet yellen steer that from a treasury policy perspective and support theo's economy when some of the akamai data is not looking so the u.s. and support economy when some of the economic data is not looking so pretty. jonathan: looking for to catching up with drew matus a little bit later. for our audience worldwide, heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika

treasury secretary, is she? the reason stocks are hitting those record highs. also coming up, coronavirus tells delivery to the law by drone. a modern day ever lived is underway and the german capital birdland. a whole bunch of problems. the global flower trade has gone from boom to bust. we'll take you to the world's largest flower auction. this is business. i'm kate ferguson. thanks for joining me. she spent 4 years as head of the u.s. federal reserve. john of yellen is us president elect joe biden's presumed pick for treasury secretary. the job would make her the most important voice in u.s. economic policy. during her time such a central bank chief between 20142018 yellen dealt with the aftermath of the global financial crisis. if she's confirmed as treasury secretary, she'll be tough with forging the economic response to the pandemic, which has seen millions of americans lose their jobs and brought businesses to their knees. and reports of expected nomination certainly haven't escaped the notice of the markets. the dow jones industrial average surpassed th

-- the fed basically financing treasury spending?s that what is pricing in, or is this a relief rally we are seeing? art: i think it is more of a relief rally. i don't think the market is pricing a lot more stimulus. i think the market has resigned itself to the fact that the next stimulus package will likely be less than what we could have gotten done october had we agreed to something in the $1.6 trillion range. i think as we head into the spring, and hopefully it is something we are able to kick in and the first quarter, but as things work their way through the spring and we see the economy slow down a bit, the next round of stimulus will be more difficult, but i think you're going to find a lot of debt hawks reemerge after being asleep for four years in the senate, and talking about our rising debt and how that is not good. i think we will have a lot of reborn debt hawks. guy: do you think there's an expectation in the market that powell continues as fed chair? only a few weeks ago, we were talking about yellen -- we were not tal

treasury -- on the bbxy. treasury yields come in about a point. copper at the close yesterday, a june 2018 hi. you had this night lift -- june 2018 high. you had this nice lift in the commodity market. tom: jp morgan on fx today, strong yen is there call into the 90's. jonathan: let's get to our guest, julian emanuel, btig chief equity and derivatives strategist. not all equity highs are made the same. can you walk me through the internals here? the market breadth, the participation? is this healthier, so to speak? julian: it is, jon. if you go back and pull out the history of any long-duration bull market, and we do believe that the bottom in march was the beginning of a longer duration bull market, you will always see a period about performance from the laggards. the small caps, the financials, especially the financials, the verycyclical elements evocative of midcycle action. it is also why we are seeing breakouts in japan we haven't seen for more than a decade. relative strength in europe. the rally is broadening. it doesn't mean that tech unde

that is why the treasury secretary minoosha and was pulling back the funds into treasury. —— steven mnuchinkage to solve that problem. and what we will see as a more moderate package than what the democrats wa nted package than what the democrats wanted to be more robust. what is your outlook to the us economy now? i think we are in pretty good shape. we are having an uneven recovery and certainly there are those areas of the market that are going to ta ke of the market that are going to take longer to recover but i think with what we are seeing, we do anticipate more government intervention, certainly even going back to janet yellen, she will want more intervention from the government and i think that works well for small business as well as large businesses so i think we're coming into a new year with anticipation of a good market. but also, all the news we're getting from various places about a vaccine, that is a changer, isn't it? it is a game changer because what we are also seeing in the markets isa are also seeing in the markets is a movement away from the stay—at—home play towards t

treasuries outstanding, what should you be watching? should be watching for risks of talking about downgrades to the sovereign of the u.s.. u.s. sovereigns already on negative watch. you should also be looking more broadly at demand and supply in the treasury market. so far everything is fine, but when you look at sniffing actions from the federal reserve , there is important questions about demand and supply and treasuries we need to think about over the coming months. jonathan: what are you optimistic about next year? torsten: i am optimistic about the vaccine and i think it will work. this is an unusual situation where there is more clarity about 2021 than the rest of 2020. that is making it difficult when you sit with your spreadsheet and try to put together your forecast for the global economy. it makes it quite complicated to think about will markets trade on the bad news in the near term or will markets look through that and focus on the vaccine next year? that is why there is still arrest things will be a bit bumpy and that few

in the treasury market we have a lift in treasury yields by about three basis points to 0.8586%, abouts points off the highs we hit two wednesdays ago on the 10 year maturity. "om: all of team "surveillance say punditry is out and experts are in. after deborah fuller is not just of the washington university school of microbiology, but is also active in the development of vaccines, and we are honored that dr. fuller could nest this morning. we have questions about vaccines and all of that. i want to go to my childhood, which was the dreaded booster shot. is a booster shot now the same as it was in 1960, or is a booster shot now so efficacious and the technology so much better that it is not a big deal? dr. fuller: a booster shot in vaccines, particularly the covid-19 vaccines we are seeing right now, is absolutely essential to increase and bring the immunity to individuals that get the vaccine up to high enough levels to protect against the infection. booster shots can be a drag in the sense that you might ,xperience increased reactive and other words a bit more soreness in your arm, bu

. >> kind of takes the relief trade, if you will, out of the treasury market. have a vaccine but have to deal with the rising case counts. >> it's difficult for bond investors to show -- no caution to the wind. >> think about what actually has the chance to survive. jeff rosenberg is joining us right now. what a week it has been in the market, tested in several fronts. let's talk about credit first. we have the fed and the treasury having a little bit of a spat over the emergency programs introduced this year. i have to say this market has responded quite well to it. what was your take? the: the most important of support measures are not affected, these were not used very much. they were most effective on announcement date, not much uptake. the market is seeing through that, and it's a little bit less of a significant market reaction because it is less of a significant issue, if those support measures were to fall away. pointsn: as my colleague out, hasn't harmed the appetite for debt. we have been trying to measure, balance out the short-term headwinds with a

that's how we got here with yellen being treasury secretary. want to pivot a little to fannie and freddie because let me tell you something, liz. i get more e-mails, tweets on my reporting about these two companies and you know, where that leaves shareholders who bought these shares of fannie and freddie post-conservatorship when they were beating they would come out of conservatorship at some point, also betting that some of the stuff the government did taking its profits were illegal, also known as a network sweep and then betting a new trump administration would recap these things, massive recapitalization, and massive release plan to them. now, as you know, trump is going to be leaving. the treasury secretary is going to change, it's going to be yellen. mark calabria thinks he's an independent director but that will be challenged in courts. he's not going anywhere until july. what could happen in the meantime to these two entities? could calabria and mnuchin in a lame duck actually make some of these massive changes that lead to a recap and

my guess, the next treasury secretary probably have a different view of that. if that treasury secretary begins to help small businesses, maybe some of those who disagree with the pic initially will say they're playing it straight, down the middle and doing things to help the economy grow so we can get people hired and help small businesses. time will tell, it's not healthy to make snap decisions, we have to see a people do their job and they will be implementing the biden philosophy which i'm confident will get us out of this mess. alicia: congressman tim ryan, thank you so much for your time and happy thanksgiving to you and your family. coming up on "fox news sunday" chris wallace talks with doctor tom inglesby for the health security, that is right here at 2:00 p.m. eastern. leland: a great conversation there and despite warnings about holiday travel during the pandemic, millions of americans are hitting the road through the woods to grandma's house, christina coleman live ellie asked for some of those travelers are. review the cdc strongly recommends that

is it treasury, money market, what was your thought process?, the story here is due to the rapid expansion of the monetary supply of the central banks, the cost capital has tripled from 5% to 15% over the last year. over the next four years, bond coupons will need to exceed that hurdle we had 500 million worth of cash, but we knew we would generate another 500 million worth of cash. we realized if we held it in cash it would deface by 10 or 15% per year bitcoin is the best safe haven treasury asset in the world right now. and it is to be revered to gold in all aspects that being the case, a lot of people understand the asset story of bitcoin it is up each year annually. but what they don't understand is bitcoin is a monetary network and it is capable of storing and chaneling energy without power loss we got excited about this idea and saw it as a solution not just for the 300 trillion of tap cal -- capital in the world it's compelling. >> sorry to interrupt. cash on a balance sheet and wanting to preserve the power of that cash is one thing inv

of the treasury. would you characterize -- u.k. economic secretary of the treasury. how would you characterize this spending package? is the worst contraction we have seen in 300 years, and they present significant challenges to our economy. he also set out a package of spending for the coming year, and will come back to parliament with a budget in march to indicate the way forward when we are clear on the effect of the vaccine and how we can actually look with confidence about the economy and on-site had. -- economy in the months ahead. guy: the prime minister has promised there will be no return to austerity yet today there was a freeze to public sector wages outside of the health sector. for those that are going to feel the effect of that, that is going to feel awfully like austerity. there are clearly very challenging decisions that the chancellor has had to make, and that is one of them. but over the six months to september this year, we see that public-sector pay has increased by 4%, whilst in t

the trouble with elizabeth warren at treasury is that the republican governor of massachusetts would appoint a replacement and most likely it would not be a democrat. >> exactly. if you're looking at the two of them, bernie sanders is really

treasury secretary, president elect joe biden's. chances choices for his economic team make it the most diverse in white house history. and the c.e.o. piece. prime minister says his forces have not killed a single civilian during the conflict in t. . great. it has been urged to engage in constructive dialogue with to great leaders during a phone call with the u.s. secretary of state. turkey is going to impose full coronavirus lockdowns on the weekends and then 4 enforce curfews on weekdays. as the country has experienced the week of record increases in new cases and deaths. the turkish medical association warns hospitals have reached capacity with new 30000 cases every day. and could impose nationwide, we can curfews in mid november restrictions, the opposition says, turned out to be insufficient. 8 prisoners in a straight line can jail have died after guards opened fire to stop a riot over a rise in corona virus infections. and that the 71 inmates and 2 guards were injured at the facility on the outskirts of colombo unrest in sri l

the treasury has halted extensions for emergency relief programs . when to break that down, what that could mean for a swift economic recovery and later tensions continue to rise between the united states and china. as the white house is mulling, new moves against the people's republic with a packed show today. so let's dive right in. and we leave the program with more positive news in the development of a coping $1000.00 vaccine after zeneca on monday said late stage trials of its vaccine can it showed it was 90 percent effective, becoming the 3rd drug maker to report similar results. now the drug which is being developed with oxford university has long been seen as one of the top contenders in the vaccine race. now during a video conference call, representatives from astra zeneca and oxford university spoke about distribution and how competition among back seem developers was actually welcome. and we've always known that we don't need multiple that scenes for the world because no one develops and i will manufacture is going to be able to be easy en

the treasury market, as well.y yield closing yesterday at 97 basis points, not the upper end of the 10-year yield range of the last 5, 6 months. how much oxygen is north of this level, and how long before risk appetite is choked off? bond market, humongous european equity out performers over the last couple of days, yet the handle retreated, 1.19 intraday monday all the way back down to 1.17. we are down .5%. i would have expected as risk appetite picked up globally, for the dollar to fouled away. that has not happened. tom: it has not happened, but it is sort of a discombobulated. daniel katzive is with bnp paribas and writes detailed and complex notes for institutional wall street. we will try to put it down right now and two basic pairs. i see huge disconnect between the major currency pairs in the em. what does that signal? >> i agree, it is a discombobulated and since monday, and it is notable -- notable in dollar-you in. good news for the world is bad news for the dollar. the fed was capping nominal yields a

treasuries did not participate in the moves yesterday, basically unchanged. move of a basis point or so. we come in a basis point to 0.89%. euro-dollar, $1.1875. $41.48.wn to joining us to kick off program, mona mahajan, allianz global investors u.s. investment strategist. kit juckes says this market is unsustainable. do you share that? asa: i think the rotation part of this equity move is somewhat sustainable. we may get some volatility. we are still not through the toughest part of this virus and this pandemic. but beyond that, i think the incremental news we got this weekend last week with not only vaccines, but vaccines over 90% effective, or 95% effective, even the scientists in their wildest hopes were not expecting that would produce that. that is incremental news that could get us through this pandemic in the next 12 months period. for us, when you think about to1, where growth may start accelerate because you have a pickup globally, rates will probably remain low through 2021, and you have the potential for fiscal stimulus and maybe some fiscal spend