these plans, these are | treasury proposals to cut another £400 _ treasury proposals to cut another £400ury proposals to cut another £400 of energy proposals with a government backed lending scheme. they are _ government backed lending scheme. they are pretty embryonic plans, this chancellor has asked his team to start _ this chancellor has asked his team to start working on a multi—billion pound _ to start working on a multi—billion pound package which will basically lead to— pound package which will basically lead to a _ pound package which will basically lead to a reduction in energy price cap. lead to a reduction in energy price can but _ lead to a reduction in energy price can but it— lead to a reduction in energy price cap. but it would only come in in january— cap. but it would only come in in january and _ cap. but it would only come in in january and not affected for the autumn— january and not affected for the autumn when people start to feel the hit, autumn when people start to feel the hit. as_ autumn when people start to feel the hit. as kate _ autumn when people start to fe

yes. kind of covid style response where the treasury steps in.— the treasury steps in. yes.tion the _ the treasury steps in. yes. the situation the country _ the treasury steps in. yes. the situation the country is - the treasury steps in. yes. the situation the country is facing, | situation the country is facing, ordinary— situation the country is facing, ordinary households and businesses is extremely severe and worrying. the next — is extremely severe and worrying. the next prime minister will take office _ the next prime minister will take office in— the next prime minister will take office injust over a week's time. based _ office injust over a week's time. based on — office injust over a week's time. based on the way they are assuming liz truss_ based on the way they are assuming liz truss will be the person who becomes— liz truss will be the person who becomes prime minister and that is what most — becomes prime minister and that is what most people seem to believe, she will_ what most people seem to believe, she will be — what most people seem to believe, she will b

that paired with a long rated treasury is the perfect bill.isa: since it is existential friday i want to hone in on, not a very bad credit cycle. is it going to wash zombies in the market? or is it a dip? michael: the latter. everyone refinanced debt in '21. everyone locked in low long-term interest rates. look on the ig market, cash on balance sheets has never been higher. that will help. we wouldn't expect a default cycle similar to the last several cycles. it would not shock me if you got a 7% peak, which is quite different than the past. there will be great opportunity in credit, private and public market. just not today. maybe three months, six months, nine months. you always get the baby thrown out with the bathwater. you always get people who expect the worst. we haven't had capitulation yet. everyone is asking whether, when are we going to buy? that is not capitulation. capitulation is not when you ask. capitulation is when you hide under your desk and refuse to buy anything. whenever we have that moment, that will create an opportunit

lord harrington, i think— treasury 22 £700. lord harrington, i think across — treasury 22 £700.ting to fold. _ minister. this move is interesting to fold. one — minister. this move is interesting to fold, one because he says in the interview— to fold, one because he says in the interview that he is confident that the treasury will follow suit and take on — the treasury will follow suit and take on board this recommendation but of— take on board this recommendation but of course we have lots of speculation and a pretty good idea of who— speculation and a pretty good idea of who the chancellor may well be after the _ of who the chancellor may well be after the tory leadership campaign and contest finishes, but it is unlikely— and contest finishes, but it is unlikely to be nadhim zahawi, so saying _ unlikely to be nadhim zahawi, so saying you — unlikely to be nadhim zahawi, so saying you are confident now is one thing. _ saying you are confident now is one thing. but _ saying you are confident now is one thing, but this is a real move by lord _ thing, but this is a real move by lor

you know what it will be in the treasury market, which is why the treasury market is priced -- has pricedt in already. all these risk assets like high-yield bonds, we just don't know who will sell them, when will sell them but something will have to be sold and that is where quantitative tightening can have an additional negative impact on risk assets apart from justified continuing to raise rates extraordinarily quickly. taylor: a quick follow on that, what about the largest buyer of ncs, when they take their heavy foot off, what does that mean for the mbs market? matthew: this is where it gets interesting. for agency mortgages, we know that more mortgages might come to the market if the fed is no longer buying them but we have to remember rates are up quite a bit, so the supply of mortgages is also going to be much lower. for agency mortgages, it is a bit different. we do not know exactly what the supply will look like, other than it is probably going to be lower than it was at lower rate levels. he also know the fed will be buying less. that is a more difficult to game for the market t

— him, but he isn't part of the treasury or in the mindset of the people _ treasury or in the mindsetreasury — actually say that he's against the treasury. but he's clearly not part of the _ treasury. but he's clearly not part of the game. he's not part of the economic— of the game. he's not part of the economic gang. let of the game. he's not part of the economic gang-— economic gang. let me bring in yasmin, because i _ economic gang. let me bring in yasmin, because i know- economic gang. let me bring in yasmin, because i know she . economic gang. let me bring in i yasmin, because i know she would economic gang. let me bring in - yasmin, because i know she would be shaking her head. how are tax cuts not inflationary? there not what you would regard as a progressive way to get money back into people's hands. it gets money into the hands of the well—off, who can be the super—rich, as well as people like you and me who have reasonable incomes, and remember one thing — liz truss is no margaret thatcher. margaret thatcher, i detested her politics, but i respected her intelligence and atte

it seems as if the treasury thinks a cut of £400| if the treasury thinks a cut of £400 would be enoughning to the ideas put forward by two energy bosses, the boss of scottishpower, and the bus of eon, that the current cap be frozen at its current level. in an emergency —— and an emergency fund be set up which the energy companies could call on so there will be no increases in fuel bills over the next couple of years, perhaps, in order to save us from this cost of living crisis that is looming. 0ne living crisis that is looming. one interesting thing about the sunday times can seem the idea was put forward as early as april and the plan could now be in place because whatever happens, nothing can be done that quickly. help will definitely be forthcoming. this belief that help will not be forthcoming is entirely wrong. it will take time. we need to develop something of a sense of urgency here. ., , ., , here. there are stories in the -a ers, here. there are stories in the papers. we — here. there are stories in the papers. we have _ here. there are stories in the papers, we have been - he

that was donald trump's secretary of the treasury and indeed every treasury secretary of my lifetime of both parties has has pushed for raising the debt ceiling. dr. scheiner, i'll ask you and just let me actually before i turn to dr. scheiner let me explain real quick about my legislation the debt ceiling reform act. it actually would not eliminate the debt ceiling but it would take it away from this increasing political dysfunction we see in congress. it would improve the mechanism and take away that catastrophic possibility of one day failing to raise the debt ceiling and plummeting us into a worldwide depression. if you want to describe some of the consequences that secretary mnuchin couldn't even imagine, if we were on the day -- one day to fail to raise the debt ceiling. >> so back in last fall -- i totally agree with you. i was not 100% sure we were going to raise the debt ceiling in time. it seemed possible we would step into the breach. we talked about what would happen if that occurred. there was a lot of uncertainty. clearly if we have an impact that -- an impasse that las

well into treasury yields, an interesting story of what happened. officials pushed back against the narrative and financial markets over the last week. they were envisioning a pivot away from tightening. that basically led to a lack of liquidity in the markets yesterday, a lot of volatility. this is futures, much more stable. we want to look at sovereign bonds, the italian two-year at 1.3 12. that election coming on the 25th of september. they will -- equity indices stabilizing somewhat. the ftse down .2%. we have to look at treasuries, we look also at what's going on in the commodity complex with opec. we could see a short meeting. over in australia, pretty much study as they go after the tumultuous concern we saw yesterday regarding taiwan. in taiwan, we are seeing some of the roots, trade shipping, the taiwan strait, despite a lot of -- nothing escalated as some traders were worried about. s&p futures game .2%. u.s. 10-year yield, to's -- 2.717. inflation in turkey. we think we have about here, turkey, july consumer prices rising 79%. it is estim

the treasury market is five times larger.an see how the plumbing will be affected by regulations, the fact that you have dealers that are not willing to take as much risk as they used to because of regulations and their own risk management processes after the global financial crisis. all of these things have contributed -- basically liquidity being good and then not. i call it fickle liquidity. i've been writing about this for nine years now. it is not surprising that we have days like yesterday where liquidity is fine on monday and then suddenly on tuesday there is no liquidity. that is the risk in these treasury markets. the quiddity completely dries up because everyone is one way and positioning cannot shift so quickly. i think it will happen more and more, a fact of life going forward. jonathan: ira jersey, thank you. we have to pick up on the story out of vienna. the opec-plus meeting started about seven minutes ago. we understand they are considering just a 100,000 barrel a day increase. the team at bloomberg has put to

yields with a big run up 10-year treasury a hair below 2.8% benchmark 2-year treasury is 3.20%.that inversion is still in play. long-term rates below short-term once oil prices moving to the down side this morning. u.s. benchmark wti $88.45. 56 cents to the down side. similar percentage loss for world benchmark ice brent crude at $94.30. nat gas below at $9.01 we have the latest headlines with silvana henao. >>> celsius is pulling its motion to hire the cfo back to $92,000 a month. he technical remains an employee of the company this decision comes days after cnbc reported on the request by celsius to list the help as a consultant during the bankruptcy process. >>> two employers in indiana employing 10,000 people in the state and it worries it hurts the drugmaker's ability to attract diverse scientific engineering talent from around the world and plan for more growth outside the home state. the manufacturing employs 10,000 people in indiana. >>> and elon musk is challenging the ceo of twitter to a public debate about fake accounts and s spam in a tweet on saturday, musk said the

not only with equities rallying, treasury yields retrading. this will give them more strength and more confidence that they can move ahead with a much more aggressive tightening campaign. the balance sheet reduction is about to get ramped up into september. it is pretty clear -- 4.5%, there is more than needs to be done. jonathan: is the fed upside down right now? luke: it is bananas. it is deja vu. it is different than you and i are used to. i was stunned by the comments because he has been my the most dovish guys around. someone who has turned hawkish. clearly there is more tightening to come. financial conditions have to tighten more to get inflation anywhere within 3% to 4%, let alone 2%. jonathan: a tug-of-war of financial conditions. i love this quote. right now the fed is losing. they will look to regain a better grip at jackson hole. the price inches up with better inflation news. the easing of financial conditions. how to expect chairman powell to navigate it. meghan: that is the way the fed thinks about. the transmission of policy is

we had the sell off in tre treasuries in the 2-year treasury and 10-year treasury jumping. in terms of stocks this morning, all three stateside are pointing stronger dow jones industrial average is looking to rally over 100 points s&p and nasdaq looking to gain ground last week, we saw significant outperformance of the nasdaq which gained 2%. stronger for the dow and s&p let's talk about that and the payroll report non-farm payrolls rising 528,000. more than double than estimate unemployment rate topping forecast at 3.5% and average hourly earnings jumped 0 .5% this will likely force the federal reserve to continue hiking aggressively to cool the economy and bring down inflation. goldman sachs economist told cnbc the july payroll numbers could force the fed to act, but other releases like the inflation figures on wednesday will determine how aggressive it will be come september >> this was a hawkish report as far as policies are concerned. it is not surprising this market is selling off on this information. it does increase the possibility the fed will have to do more our e

to the treasury space. the press conference with the taiwanese president, speaker pelosi will visit parliament on wednesday morning as well, have lunch with the president. plenty of twists and turns to expect from that meeting. heidi: hello see -- pelosi's visit has prompted military growth as well, some of the most serious actions we have seen in decades. a spokesman said washington is prepared to manage beijing's response. >> the united states will not see or want a crisis. we are prepared to manage would beijing choose to do. at the same time, we will not engage in saber rattling, we will operate in the seas and skies of the was in pacific as we have done for decades. heidi: let us bring in jodi schneider and steven engle. we have seen the white house perhaps with some level of utility tried to push back on the idea of is a provocative move. any change when it comes to the u.s. position when it comes to cross strait relations, what is the latest reaction we are getting from d.c.? >> what we are hearing i

treasury has also allowed the hires to go beyond just replacing people who are retiring which would be focused on customer service. host: when you say "agents," we generally are talking about armed law enforcement agents, correct? guest: the irs only actually has about 2000 people who work in criminal investigations who carry weapons. so it is a very small percentage of the workforce that does that. that is not really where this money is focused. host: why does the irs have a criminal investigations unit? what did they do? guest: sometimes there are crimes that are tax crimes, and the irs investigates them. they do stuff working on financing issues, a wide array of things that relate to the tax code. my understanding is that criminal investigation agency has not discharged their weapons at all in the past few years. a whole bunch of irs agents are going to come down on people and that is not the case. host: one example of that talking just referred to from fox news earlier this month, senator chuck grassley, is interviewing fox news, here is a bit of what he had to say. >> apparently,

francine: i want to talk about treasuries in a second. this is from one of my favorite writers at bloomberg, he has a piece out saying, are animal spirits running into a dump money trap? are you expecting a correction. is there too much positivity or traders are not willing to accept that we would see a protracted recession? ed: we think the economy if it falls into recession, it will be a shallow one. comparing market falls with what happened in 2008 is probably the wrong benchmark. the risk of a proper recession which [indiscernible] is now about a 60% chance. for most of this year we have been reminding clients of bullish arguments as well as bearish ones, but now that we have had a rally we are more inclined to emphasize bearish ones, we are staying defensive. bad news has been priced as good views but we think it is not too long before the news is priced as bad news again. francine: i know you said it is difficult to make longer-term calls because of volatility but how high can the dollar go? ed: it is conceivable that the dollar cou

the treasury bill market is very liquid and part of the treasury pole. it could be as wide as 10 business points. that is huge for a liquid market. everybody is very concerned right now. you know, it is a lot. and i think everyone is just frustrated that we are not getting the same sort of concern coming out of the official sector that a lot of people can see. kriti: cameron on the ny team brought up the point. and what the dot plot suggests can create a stage for that bond volatility. thank you as always for that context. a let's get more on the fed repricing. joining us now is the chief economist. that the fed dot plot a so why that bond volatility is almost inevitable. >> i think you hit on an interesting note that i think is true. in the market is anticipating that rates will stay high until they go low or until they are reversed. there is a big difference between those two and it anchors into 2023. this is the reason it could hold on for longer and it creates some of the volatility that we have in the marketplace because it is a big that being place

the fireworks in the treasury space, we saw that really harsh turn around when it came to the treasury rally being wiped out and the 10 year reversal, so sharp that we have not seen this, we had seen it very few times in the past decade or so. we are talking about the 10-year yield after falling towards a 1.5% give it the really hawkish fed commentary. even by recent standards, we have seen a so much volatility in the bond space, this was really rare. heidi: it is quite odd we are seeing that back and forth when it comes to pricing of the geopolitical risk as well. nancy pelosi's taiwan visit has prompted beijing to announce a military drills. the most provocative actions in decades. the united states security council spokesman says washington is ready to manage beijing's response. >> the u.s. does not seek or what a crisis. we are prepared to manage what beijing chooses to do. at the same time, we will not engage in saber rattling. we will operate in the seas and skies of the western pacific as we have done for decades. heidi: let us bring in our east asia correspondent. give us the l

you think about longer-term and 10-year treasury yield, over 3%.flation goes back to the 2% level in the next two years, you are locking in for eight years after that. a 1% rate of return, which is higher than we have gotten in the past. it inflation returns to the pre-pandemic trajectory or close to it, the real yield at 3% or higher is not bad. it will be a challenge for treasury market yields to go past the highs we saw in june of this past year. -- this year. kailey: looking at the yield in the ballpark of 2.7%, do you think it is realistic to expect inflation will get that close to target? michael: i think it depends on what kind you are talking about. the inflation report this month for july was surprisingly good. although still, very high. the global evidence of this outside the united states is not clear at all, whether or not inflation has peaked globally. certain countries and regions around the world are suffering. it is whether or not inflation continues at a downward pace, which is fairly aggressive. a 2.7% job -- drop is a pretty good

the treasury is correlating _ consequences. the treasury is correlating cost _ consequences. correlating cost of _ consequences. the treasury is correlating cost of living - consequences. the treasury is correlating cost of living policy options for the next prime minister to consider. rishi sunak has said he will provide more direct support to vulnerable households. liz truss has not ruled out more support but prefers the idea of tax cuts. 0ne not ruled out more support but prefers the idea of tax cuts. one of her key supporters, the chief secretary to the treasury, simon clark, has questioned the universal nature of some of the support offered so far, suggesting a preference for more targeted added if the —— intervention. the new prime minister will take office on the 5th of september, just a month shy of another rise in bills, an immediate challenge for a new leader. david wallace—lockhart, bbc news. sir salman rushdie has been taken off a ventilator and has spoken for the first time since he was stabbed several times on stage at a literary event in the united states on fr

treasury. this will be crucial. us get a quick market check, the market was up most of the day, and that it drop. all of the money seems to be going into the treasury market. the risk off mess, take a look at this, it is showing up in crude. a 4% drop for that commodity. stick with us, this is bloomberg. ♪ at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will help you create a comprehensive wealth plan for your full financial picture. with the right balance of risk and reward. so you can enjoy more of...this. this is the planning effect. millions have made the switch from the big three so you can enjoy more of...this. to xfinity mobile. that means millions are saving hundreds a year on their wireless bill. and all of those millions are on the nation's most reliable 5g network, with the carrier rated #1 in customer satisfaction. that's a whole lot of happy campers out there. and it's never too late to join them. get unlimited data with 5g included for just $30 a line per month when you get 4 lines. switch to xfinity mobile today.

david, also, treasuries are being affected by all this, and more. david: absolutely, and how long it lasts is a key question. i know we say it today, but more so today than anything. our previous guest basically alluded to the fact that going into this report, any semblance of that information was coming off, even if it doesn't last, investors will jump on that, just given how extreme it was in the itch to cover these shorts. growth heavy benchmarks, assets like korea and taiwan are leading gains. up 1% on the benchmarks. u.s. futures are still holding onto their gains. the ftse 100 futures. so it is still risk-on as we make our way into the mid-morning out of the session. david: and you have to wonder, this is the first time since i think 2021 that inflation actually undershot expectations, right? certainly a big surprise. is it out of the woods? you heard from neel kashkari and evans overnight, trying to play the optimism in the markets. we are not there yet when it comes to the fed pivot, but it is may a change of regime around the fed now. our g

the bond market, at least the 10-year treasury, maybe not the 10-year treasury, the bond market did not move much it is odd. >> that is odd bond didn't move dollar at 1.09 you need to break above 1.09 or 1.10 for something to happen brian, it is friday, it is summer 1,000 point selloff in the dow and the volume numbers at 2% below the moving day average putting it all together -- again, i want to be clear -- we could see a deeper pullback. there are things we will watch in the market to see if this is just going to be a little bit of a pullback off the 18% move off the june lows. we corrected about 6% of it. you have 1.5% to go back to the 50 day >> yeah. i'm tired of being the grim raraep reaper this monday morning you want to buy for the low? talk about nvidia orang range reso resources. let's call it opportunity monday >> brian, we are over at the end. we still like what we see in the energy space we continue to see this as an innocent until proven guilty range resources a company. a lot of them saying it cannot work further it will take profits you have not had a big up trend. that

let's show you treasury yields 10-year treasury is standing at

. _ she was chief secretary to the treasury, 2019, probably some questions — treasury, 2019, probablyrecording these conversations and whether the individual— these conversations and whether the individual who leaked them should be working _ individual who leaked them should be working irr— individual who leaked them should be working in the civil service. liz truss— working in the civil service. liz truss is— working in the civil service. liz truss is right that we do have a big productivity — truss is right that we do have a big productivity deficit with other countries, and between london, the southeast _ countries, and between london, the southeast and the rest of the uk. this has— southeast and the rest of the uk. this has been well documented, although— this has been well documented, although the causes of it are disputed. in my view, it is a problem _ disputed. in my view, it is a problem of poor skills levels, it is for management, it is inadequate investment, it is excessive regulation, but perhaps attitudes do play a _ regulation, but perhaps attitudes do play a role, — regu

the 10-year treasury and 2-year treasury is now inverted 2-year treasury is 3.22% the 10-year treasury yield is below 2.79%. we are keeping an eye on that. all rates across the curve are higher in the oil market, crude off the highest since august 3rd $90 a barrel wti is down to 9$89.34 in crypto. bitcoin showing signs of down side movement after the surge from the last couple weeks bitcoin below the $24,000 mark similar percentage move for ethereum 1, $1, $1, $1,771 >>> let's get a check of the issues in europe with julianna tatelbaum. good morning, julianna >> dom, good morning not a lot going on in terms of market action. it seems investors are somewhat in the wait-and-see mode with the inflation report due tomorrow we have a flat start to trade for the french market. cac 40 down .10% ftse 100 is down many on holiday in europe. that august low is having impact on trade this morning. we have more earnings rolling in one of the better performers is trading at the top of the stoxx 600. encouraging sign for the travel industry iwg trading at the bottom this morning after reporting a los

her trade of the treasury, she was - trade of the treasury, she was talking — trade of the treasury,t brexit _ this tape basically saying that she thought that brexit voters - this tape basically saying that she thought that brexit voters were . this tape basically saying that she i thought that brexit voters were not 'ust thought that brexit voters were not just anti—migrant, _ thought that brexit voters were not just anti—migrant, but _ thought that brexit voters were not just anti—migrant, but they - thought that brexit voters were not just anti—migrant, but they were i just anti—migrant, but they were tazy. _ just anti—migrant, but they were tazy. too. — just anti—migrant, but they were tazy. too and _ just anti—migrant, but they were lazy, too. and that's _ just anti—migrant, but they were lazy, too. and that's a _ just anti—migrant, but they were lazy, too. and that's a double i just anti—migrant, but they were i lazy, too. and that's a double when he for— lazy, too. and that's a double when he for anybody _ lazy, too. and that's a double when he for anybody that _ lazy, too. a

treasury bond will stabilize in the 3% area.wth prospects are dropping in europe we don't think the rates will continue to sky rocket >> okay. jay hatfield from infrastructure capital advisers very many thanks for joining us this morning >>> as we love to leave with the last 30 seconds, it looks positive the s&p futures are up .50%. we were higher by a full percent on the nasdaq just about an hour ago. we are slipping. similar european markets which were higher by 1% at the open and now fractionally higher. early market sentiment is positive hong kong short squeeze. nonetheless, s&p futures up by .50%. that does it for "worldwide exchange." "squawk box" is next ot this. we got this. we got this. life is for living. we got this. let's partner for all of it. edward jones when tired, achy feet make your whole body want to stop, it's dr. scholl's time. our insoles are designed with unique massaging gel waves, for all-day comfort and energy. find your relief in store or online. with xfinity internet, you get advanced security that he

treasuries. -- aussie and u.s. treasuries.are not quite at the level of inversion we are seeing in the respect of the treasuries, at levels not seen since the dot com era. in new zealand, they are centering around concerns of the housing market. we saw the post-pandemic boom and borrowers really taking advantage of low record rates. but the rbnz and rba will have a big test for the health of the households and whether economies can withstand those sorts of moves. haidi: let's get more on that. a commonwealth bank of australia reporting highest cash earnings in four years from continuing operations of 11% on the year. the senior analyst matt ingram joins us now. when you look at the nuances and the outlook, what does that tell us about the health of households in loan growth going forward? matt: thanks for having the on. household loan growth is definitely going to slow. cba called out slow and consumer confidence and high inflation. those two will have an impact on their mortgage. the cba is in pretty good shape. they grew by

jo, treasury officials also — the richest 1096 by £93.reasury officials also working on _ the richest 1096 by £93. jo, treasury officials also working on parallel- officials also working on parallel plans to introduce covid era relief including reduction in vat for hospitality, tourism and agriculture. how much will this be affordable and can it be targeted without massive administrative costs also? ~ , ,., , without massive administrative costs also? ~ , �* without massive administrative costs also? absolutely. and of course, this is rrot _ also? absolutely. and of course, this is not exactly _ also? absolutely. and of course, this is not exactly a _ also? absolutely. and of course, this is not exactly a surprise, - also? absolutely. and of course, | this is not exactly a surprise, this has been coming, maybe not to this level but we have known for months, long before the tory leadership contest which seemed to have started in the bronze age. it is just ridiculous that here we are, nearly into september, people are absolutely desperate,

mixed picture in the treasury space. the two year yield took a hit after we saw the business activity contracting. demand is slowing for manufacturers, also for service providers. oil is gaining ground in the new york section, unchanged at the moment. $94 a barrel. take a look at this chart on the bloomberg. we are seeing new home sales decelerating at the lowest level since 2016, six months of declines for this number, rising borrowing costs. properties available for sale at the highest since 2008. annabelle: in terms of what you have said about housing data, they will be interesting to see where the weakness gives jay powell a reason to temper hawkish mess, ahead of this, we are expecting commuter trading volume, new zealand is looking a little bit weaker. the aussie dollar coming back close. we have some bigger modes going on in the commodities space. we are watching asian lng prices , japan, trying to secure supplies, in the u.s. it touched $10, pulling back because we are seeing more supplies into the market. lithiu

small caps are also doing quite well, up a third of 1% treasuries are weaker, yields are higher and the dollar is stronger the chart of the day showing big moves on earnings. uber jumping 18.2%, turning cash flow positive for the first time pinterest is also soaring today, up almost 12%. and caterpillar is dragging on the dow after a revenue miss. >>> coming up today, a big interview you will not want to miss we will talk to west virginia senator joe manchin about his surprise deal on a democratic spending bill and why he says the legislation is all about fighting inflation let's get straight to the market another choppy session as investors weigh the impact of earnings and the fed's policy path those simmering tensions between the u.s. and china as well in light of speaker pelosi's visit to taiwan. joining us is dan ives from wedbush securities to help put the earnings in context. dan, what was the read-through from uber. >> i'd say it was probably the strongest quarter they have had since going public ebitda, profitability, rides looked strong in terms of the recovery it looks like fi

moving on to the action so far today and the treasury yields. there we go. 10-year treasury is 2.875% the german 10-year touched 1% today. overseas asian markets. we see the nikkei jump in particular today having been closed yesterday at 2.6% otherwise, markets are flat today. similar for the week in terms of the shanghai market and nikkei up 1.3%. hong kong is flat for the week there is the picture in europe similar to the u.s. futures. up .50% in europe. looking at 1.5% of gains for the week as a whole if things hold about here and uk gdp number came in at a decline of 0.1% of the second quarter that is better than expected which was 0.3% decline of course, in the red and raising questions whether we will be in recession after the next quarter here, i believe, two quarters of growth in a row, qualifies as recession. maybe there will be debate as it materializes it looks likely it will materialize late ther this year. >>> the dollar coming in down 1.5% this week a little bit of dollar strength on a soft week for the dollar. energy prices as wel

they bump the value of the treasury holdings up even though they do not have more treasury holdings.age securities the same issue. anna: just thinking about all that we have learned over recent days about the fed and jackson hole. it was very busy for you and your fabulous hat, which i am sorry to see you are not wearing. we seemed to get forward guidance, and yet, messages say we are data dependent. are you sure how to deal with every incoming data point in that context? mike: i am not necessarily sure because i am not sure how the economy will develop. the forward guidance and that rates are going to go up and they will be slightly restrictive. they will stay that way for some time. but we do not have forward guidance on how much they are going to go up, how fast they are going to go up, and how long they will stay that way. some fed officials say they think -- john williams today said they think 2023 -- but they are not putting any specific targets out because they need to see how the economy develops, whether we go into recession, or if we can muddle along with low growth. anna:

shery: no wonder we are seeing the reaction in the treasury space. we continue to see the yield curve flattening. the most inverted in decades. what asset classes are you watching for potential early moves from the fed or what might come as a bigger move in september as well? garfield: first of all, that if she did what pressures are worried about, i think that's about the absolute to scramble across a fixed income space to adjust to jobs numbers nobody really expected this sort of a green light to the fed for potentially a 75% basis point hike in september. the fed does have another set of data it can get before it actually meets, so you would need to get something. extraordinary at this week's inflation meeting to contemplate going for it. but we had the strong selloff across the board and treasuries, a lot of people have greatest concerns treasuries were looking fall 2 -- four looking far too complacent. at reaction function, as we were just talking about, the idea the fed is giving to pivot today more dovish case without very rapid come down and

the treasury has a role in this as well.ing and the state of the deficit, these are also ingredients in inflation and if you spend well beyond your means, you also stimulate inflation. so we tend to give a lot of effect to the words of the fed chair, but we have to recognize that's really only onin e ingr ingredient. >> but to your latter point they're going to overdo it on tightening and trying to control inflation, what sort of stress in the system do you see or fallout for the economy do you see as a result? >> i see it as more of a sustained malaise as opposed to a really deep spiky recession. and i guess the reason for that is we're coming from a position of great strength in the sense that the bank's balance sheets are incredibly strong right now. the consumer has a nice amount of savings relative to income flow we're starting with a lot of open job positions we're starting with a relatively strong stock market. so the economy is in a position to be able to take it in a way that it would not if it were in a more fragil

the treasury is collating cost—of—living policy options for the next prime minister to consider.will provide more direct support to vulnerable households. liz truss has not ruled out more support but prefers the idea of tax cuts. one of her key supporters, the chief secretary to the treasury, simon clark, has questioned the universal nature of some of the support offered so far, suggesting a preference for more targeted intervention. the new prime minister will take office on the 5th of september, just a month shy of another rise in bills — an immediate challenge for a new leader. david wallace—lockhart, bbc news. let's talk to our political correspondent, nick eardley. a new promise from the labour party on energy, on help with people's energy bills. the on energy, on help with people's energy bills-— energy bills. the issue of rising ener: energy bills. the issue of rising energy prices — energy bills. the issue of rising energy prices will _ energy bills. the issue of rising energy prices will be _ energy bills. the issue of rising energy prices will be a - energy bills. the i

we are all a little bit -- what i'm watching is the 10 year treasury in the united states.t has a big influence on the mortgage rates which influences the housing market which is a key part of the economy. it's hard to ignore that the treasury market is indicating right now that they are worried about recession. the yield has been coming down. i'm watching this closely to see what stays and where it goes from here. >> why are markets so sanguine right now? are they getting ahead of themselves because they already priced in the recession or are they said the wrong? -- are they simply wrong? >> i wouldn't call them wrong, but there is a view out there that i hope is right which is that inflation is starting to come off in the united states. that things are coming down. then there is the view that the fed will bring rates down. i am not one who subscribes to that. i would be very happy if they can raise rates to see the economy move along but not hit a brick wall. then they will keep the rates there. i have a different view than what's going on in the equity markets right now.

treasury yields rallied across the curve. two year yield added almost 50 basis points friday. we are seeing some downside in oil prices after they gained ground friday but still below $90 a barrel. concerns of recession continue but we were watching the odds of the fed rate hike being bigger than expected and now traders are putting a 75 basis point hike for september given that jobless rate fell to 3.5%, the lowest since 1969. so a record number of americans on payroll now. haidi: this all feeding into where we sit with the inflation debate. let's look at asian markets. it's a big week for australian earnings. key pressure supply chains and costs will be major themes this week. looking at the futures in sydney shaking up flat. we expect little early change monday morning. aussie dollar holding at 69 after the dollar traded in the major currencies. we saw studying for the aussie dollar. stocks finishing last week 1% lower. kiwi stocks trading flat. it dollar at 135. closing up 1.6% friday, the best week for the dollar-yen in three weeks. inflation, it seems like in spite of gl

the outlook for treasuries next. this is bloomberg. ♪ taylor: this is bloomberg markets.reasury is weaker, lower yields higher. investors are starting to digest the cooler housing data. ian lyngen with bmo capital markets joining me in studio. rp keeled -- are peak yields behind us? ian: it will take a lot to get back above 350. have consolidated it, the biggest potential when it comes to u.s. interest rates is in the front end of the curve. the fed will continue to hike rates that will put upward pressure on two-year yields, maybe three year yields depending on how aggressive they are in signaling the terminal will be higher. for now, we are reasonably confident 10 and 30 year yield will not return to prior peaks. jon: while we are waiting for what comes out of the fed minutes, clearly we are looking at a fed that is dated. are there any takeaways from recent data? you have been looking at the latest jobs report. ahead of the august jobs report, what it tells us about what kind of wiggle room the central bank may have. ian: i think they have a great deal of flexibility i

we have two year treasury yield is a 50 year high.e watching the fallout from that right across the asian foreign exchange markets. plus, more boon for china's economy. and of course more here. clark's pal could not be clearer. higher for longer, rates could be at restrictive levels for some time. he says the economy could be in pain but the fed will be tolerant of that pain. even the stock market, dark investors have that clinic. we have the selloff here in asia. the nikkei two to five down almost 3%, asian stocks as a whole are down to the lowest levels in two years, dragged down by big tech. big losses, giving away those yields. treasury yields. we are talking about two year yield. we have tenure yields, that could climb to 3.5% or 4%. we talk about the king dollar. it continues to gain, putting a lot of pressure on asian currencies. take a look at where we are in terms of the yuan. down .6%. inching ever closer to that psychological level. that is the lowest level in about 1.5 years. needless to say, yields surging in asia. >> it

transportation stoxx losing by more than 2% checking on the interest picture, right now the treasuryield, 2.75% the 2-year yielding a little lower. the 10-year, 2-year spread, still inverted, short-term rates higher than long-term ones, its lowest crude prices are showing some movement ahead of the big opec meeting coming up. crude prices down. nearly 1.5% decline. similar percentage move here, downside for ice brent crude, $99.07 turning to cryptocurrencies, we're seeing crypto and ether posting some gains right now bitcoin, $23,306 ether, 1,649, up about roughly one half of 1% now let's get a check on the action overseas. julianna tatelbaum is in our london newsroom with a bit of what's going on over there a bit of a mixed picture what's going on >> we do have a mixed picture. what we've learned is the business activity in the private sector contracted in the month of july. we're seeing some downbeat sides on the macro front equity investors seem to be shrugging that off we have a little bit of green on the cac 40 and the spanish and italian markets. the dax hovering around the fla

treasury yields have been surging higher.he dollar, clearing out the previous day's low. we will watch that pairing. to that end, the treasury two-year hitting 3.5% for the first time since 2007. kathleen: a dramatic weekend it is not over. business flash headlines, qualcomm setting up a legal showdown with one of its biggest customers. it revolves around the qualcomm acquisition of nubia, which developed ships to develop with licenses that can't be transferred. ubs in hong kong and turmoil in dear -- dealmaking. the bank has trimmed workers and investment banking, capital markets and real estate. snapchat is getting 20% of its work force and cutting back investment in straggling businesses to rein in cost and refocus after a slow down in ad revenue growth. the company says the 8% sales growth in the current quarter fell short of expectations. haidi: [indiscernible] hosting its annual biotech summit, bringing together industry executives and investors. our next guest is one of the most influential investors in the china healt

inflation hawks like former secretary treasury larry somers said, quote this bill is fighting inflation. this bill is fighting inflation. progressive leaders like senator elizabeth warren said, quote, this is a bill that truly is about fighting inflation, bringing down the costs for families and putting our country on a sounder economic footing. here's how it works. first, the bill finally delivers on a promise that washington has made for decades to the american people. we're giving medicare the power to negotiate for lower prescription drug prices, which means seniors and consumers will pay less for their prescription drugs. medicare will save in the process about $290 billion. and in addition it also changes the circumstances for people on medicare, by putting a cap of a maximum $2,000 a year, they have to pay no more than $2,000 a year, no matter how many prescriptions they have. for all the prescription drugs. which is especially important for people with cancer and long-term diseases. it's a god send. it will be a god send for many families. second, the bill locks in place lower h

shery: take a look at the treasury slump.n the u.s., but it seems the 10 year yield and the two year yield are both gaining ground. more than 60 basis points of hikes for september already. more positive eco-data, given the ism services gauge advancing to a three month high. quite the contrast from the manufacturing numbers we got earlier this month. we have quite the fed voices singing the same monetary policy tune. inflation remains job number one, rate hikes are not over yet. kathleen hays is here with the latest. the president the latest to chime in. kathleen: he says he is laser focused on inflation. that is the way to save the message we have gotten. about 36 hours from federal reserve officials. he said yes, he doesn't think there is a recession now, or a recession could happen. but start cutting rates any soon. he says no. let's listen to what he said earlier. >> some financial markets indicate they expect us to cut interest rates next year. i don't want to say it is impossible. it seems like a very unlikely scenario,

back in 2019 -- in minister at the treasury back in 2019 —— in elite recording. minister at the treasury 2019 -- in elite recording. yeah, this is leaked, a recording. - 2019 -- in elite recording. yeah, this is leaked, a recording. she i 2019 -- in elite recording. yeah, i this is leaked, a recording. she was speaking _ this is leaked, a recording. she was speaking when she was chief secretary to the treasury and she was talking about a mindset or an attitude _ was talking about a mindset or an attitude of— was talking about a mindset or an attitude of britain, british people, lacking, _ attitude of britain, british people, lacking, or— attitude of britain, british people, lacking, or needing more graft. this chimes _ lacking, or needing more graft. this chimes with— lacking, or needing more graft. this chimes with the sort of comments we sought— chimes with the sort of comments we sought in— chimes with the sort of comments we sought in a _ chimes with the sort of comments we sought in a book that came out over a decade _ sought in a book that came out over a decade ago, authored by he

we just don't know. >> it was notable that five treasury secretaries came out together, prior treasury secretary say they are supportive, as republican or for president bush. >> anything that can be done to reduce inflation is a good thing. their view is that this is better than nothing. right now we don't have this legislation. not every piece is perfect. their view would be inflation would be higher than we like. no doubt that we have inflation in the system. it will take time to get it reduced. some things that were done at the beginning turned out to be more inflationary than anyone thought other than larry summers. >> we know you have a new book coming out in september, how to invest. remember your previous book how to leave for you and a lot of the great leaders of corporate america who impressed you the most? >> what i try to do is to find what it is that makes people great investors. from people like stan or seth carman or jim simons or michael morris, they all have characteristics that make them talented on what they do. all of them are really to defy congressional wisdom. you

today it's time to hunt for safe havens in stock versus gold or treasury bonds? is that true? to our floor show traders and masters. great to have you both. dutch, we didn't even get to chicago fed president charles evans sounding the daily and hawkish bell earlier saying he's fine with a 50 basis point or even a 75 basis point hike in september. what about today east trading response tells you equities are the best bet right now or not? >> i think i'm all for, you know, another 50 dips too, even 75. i don't have a problem with it. look at what the bond's doing. it's going absolutely pair boll ick here. that's a huge move in the bond and look at nasdaq. the nasdaq is not craving. you've go a nasdaq up on a bond move like that, that's a great sign and what that shows me is these -- a lot of these nasdaq stocks have done the work, they've been beaten to heck, and when you find some that are decent businesses not going out of business down 80 or 90% like we did with caravan that, i mean, we're buying that stock at 22, 23, 24 and it's 33 today and it's just -- that stock could go

because bank of america says yields on treasuries could top 2% in six months.oing to grow fundamentals and widening yield gap between treasuries and counterparts in japan and in front -- and reflecting moves in the japanese yen this morning. it has been strengthening against the daughter but broadly -- against the dollar but broadly we are seeing the biggest unwind. hedge funds are settling down yen positions and turning more to the yen as a haven. strength has been negative for japanese stocks and we see that in the session today but this is all about geopolitical tensions. nancy pelosi plans to visit taiwan. let's look at the open in korea. mostly across the region we are risk off in markets today and we see that in the kospi at the start of trade. watching the korean won around the 1300 level. the other major focus in korea today is inflation data, we see it topping 6.3% in the previous months. the open in australia, rba decision is front and center and we expect another 50 basis point move for the third consecutive move. the aussie at a six week high. impli

>> in terms of guilt, we prefer treasuries. we were pretty early in sit -- treasuries, 3.5%.hat has been borne out by the moves we seen in the bond market. it's quite a complicated picture. there's the possibility of further physical expansion, both candidates promising further spending. i don't think it's going to be enough to offset. that does complicate the picture. francine: thank you so much for all the insight. portfolio manager j.p. morgan asset. coming up, singapore's deputy prime minister warns the u.s. and china may be sleepwalking into conflict. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: welcome back to the open. 20 minutes into the european trading day. european stocks, .2% higher. similar gains across the board. china's military said held fresh patrols around taiwan to fight back against another u.s. congressional visit. he comes less than two weeks after live fire drills following house speaker nancy pelosi's trip to taipei. singapore's prime minister in waiting told us in interviewed that the u.s. and china could sleepwalking the conflict. >> after the ukraine words of the