treasury ourselves.examined and diagnosed the first six-month accounting court the step of the strategic plan of the court is also the discussion of the complete transfer of the full implementation of the treasury account, the treasury accounts, the model that is used all over the world , the treasury accounts in other countries, which means that all pyramids of accounts in the central bank must be under the supervision of the government, this is the most important issue that we will continue, mr. rezazadeh, of course, if you answer very briefly, your words will be for this question . no, he left this it has not been implemented. how do you respond? for example, let me say that this is related to the same round, mr. dr. dashat participated in the formulation of financial policies . the team of dr. dr. 14 as noted in note 14 , there is no team responsible for the realization of targeted receipts. and the central bank has a duty to all receipts in rials and foreign currencies should be deposited in the acc

you should pay them to the treasury account, which has been deposited in the treasury account and mine has been defaulted. when it is deferred, the beneficiaries will be the government treasurer for collection. fourthly, a problem has arisen which requires a mechanism. the sand mechanism that we put these accounts on is rightly pointed out in the 19th son of the ministry of economy to close the sub-accounts and if this issue is a necessity, it is a problem. it exists for operating devices for the demands are collected or we have passed a good law , a binding mechanism and its implementation work has not yet been seen. it will be completed gradually. i want to give you some good news today . mr. dr. talebi's center, we held many expert meetings and found the cause with the friends of the bank, the working groups that are put in multiple hands in the court of accounts, in fact, during the time when the general board had budget deductions, we looked for proper procedures and mechanisms that would work. this law is useful for good governance in fact, let's apply the procedures so that ther

kamel bank accounts, when the account is opened, the treasury of the whole country and the government did not own the amount of its own resources at the moment, and this made it difficult to spend and manage resources. law on permanent orders 196, also paragraph b, article 113 of the law the sixth program emphasized that the executive body must be obliged to transfer the bank accounts of the blocking agents to the accounts of the treasury accounts at the central bank until the legislator opened the 400 and 401 unit of the 402 unit due to the importance of the annual budget law of the year 99. he stressed that all the institutions in article 29 of the law of the sixth plan, which requires the mention of the name, must transfer the fixed amount . 10 to 20 the percentage of people is very different, which organizations are not centralized, the best subsidiaries of the ministry of oil and universities of medical sciences, and the reason why i could not be centralized is the following problems, whether or not there are already infrastructural problems, the same devices and examples let me

let's check on treasury market.k in 2011 will make did get the s&p downgraded, it was in the wake of the debt limit standoff and we saw a big move into treasuries with yields when lower. we are not seeing a lot of movement when on the treasury market. the biggest move on the front end with materials down to basis points but the 10 year yield is roughly unchanged. lizzy: thanks to bloomberg's valerie tytel. coming up, after fitch stripped the u.s. of its aaa credit rating we will bring you the latest reactions and more next. this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) enough with the calorie counting, carb cutting, diet fatigue, and stress. just taking one golo release capsule with three balanced meals a day has been clinically proven to repair metabolism, optimize insulin levels, and balance the hormones that make weight loss easy. release works with your body, not against it, so you can put dieting behind you and go live your life. head to golo.com now to join the over 2 million people who have found the right way to lose wei

treasuries.s cross as it asia editor, chris henderson. we saw the dollar rally in the u.s. session. we are seeing the downside pressure for the bloomberg dollar index now. key levels we are watching are the 1220, where we could potentially see a possible bearish reversal according to bloomberg strategists. we were watching on the upside the technical level of 1240. that would've meant a bullish breakout. this is how the picture was for emerging-market currencies given the rally in the u.s. session. in the dollar, we have the other side of the trade, em's pushing lower. right now we are seeing the offshore you on gaining a little bit. the japanese yen also getting a little bit against the greenback. let's discuss the currency markets with our next guest, the head of asia research at a and z. we have seen the downside a little bit of the dollar given the u.s. credit rating downgrade. how meaningful is this? how long can we expect it to continue? >> it came as a surprise, but i don't think is going

finally, companies have resources when it comes to the treasury . these cases should be intensified and reduced to a minimum, except for the very critical cases, with good interest and authority. these cases are very helpful for muslims, similar to last year and this year, the parliament allowed 187 more than 40. in addition , let us take care of other sources. let's do one of these things that he used this money, he found the need for it, the government, even with the permission of the parliament, we were higher than the institutions, the permission of the treasury, etc. the result of treasury accounts is a good motivation and consensus, close to zero, the pain of the organization of the budget program to the tools of the device is completely fixed, the tool to track the resources, the allocations that we have for them, about the expenses that i don't have and the implementation of the budget law that they have, which is real-time and daily with this we have devices in the implementation of the budget law with devices here we oblige that if i imple

this class of 30 year treasury to start yesterday. -- caused the 30 year treasury to surge yesterday. of earnings as you take a look at incredible gains, particularly with some of the less stocks the last year. what is it tells about the economy? what is it tells about the strength of the u.s. people are pointing to that should eradicate any concerns about political drama? do we see people still want to go to hotels and gamble and buy homes and even if the mortgage rates are high, it is not matter? qualcomm coming up with chips. it is the u.s. zionism people are coming about -- dyanism people are coming about. jonathan: you have the likes of secretary yellen calling the moves the downgrade the country arbitrary and outdated. let me share the quote with you. the decision does not change with the americans, investors, people around the world no, treasury securities are made agreement it safe and liquid asset an american company is fundamentally strong. that backs of people who have dropped the recession call. but on the same day, they have to increase the net borrowing estimate as much

it helps to define the account and enter the treasury. according to the report, the financial discipline of the government is possible. it will help the government a lot budget management, which is the main pillar of this khazan unit account, just for example, for the viewers , let me know the number of accounts that were transferred to qazvin unit last year, how much help to the government and management, in the name of allah, rahman, raheem, i read quickly to the point of the article , the most important point. that the treasury accounts of the government help, it is the management of fines in various cases of the implementation of the budget and the general financial system of the government, the most important issue is the management of cash flow to the treasury account, the key point is whether it is good or insects . in times of intense disharmony and we are in a situation where the products of our country are less or more in the whole world, these areas are very important for this flow, the use of this account enters the government

i am distracted by the treasury market. it is nice to see yields rallying, hopefully we get a breather. lizzy: if qt is going like clockwork, why speed it up? let's look at what we have, at 7:00 a.m. german factory orders for june, they are on a monthly basis and expected to go into negative territory with a smaller decline on an annual basis. at 12:15 we hear from the bank of england economist, he is usually sent out to clarify misinterpreted sages. -- misinterpreted messages. he is suggesting brits need to accept they are poorer. at 1:30 we get the all-important u.s. nonfarm payrolls report. thanks to bloomberg's reporters for our morning roundtable. you can get a roundup of the stories you need to know by going to today's edition of "daybreak." if previews the u.s. jobs report and brings you the latest on treasuries, then there is a story about jeremy hunt to find out how any bank customers have been blacklisted about their political views. nigel farage being de-banked, it finds a range for banks guilty of that. they hav

treasuries.n fitch lowers the rating it implies that they have lost confidence or are less confident that the u.s. government is able to contain it spending that keeps the debt rising at the size -- at the speed of the gdp or the u.s. economy. one of the worst things that can happen is spending gets out of control and the size of the debt starts to grow faster than the u.s. economy itself is growing because not implies the u.s. will be less able to pay the outstanding debt. right now, the government is in a position where it can do something about it, but so far, fitch is telling us the government has not done the necessary measures to contained the growth of the debt. francis coppola, in rochester it is a shot across the bows. >> i think it is. i think the driver for this actually has been the debt of default -- threat of default caused by the debt ceiling. this is not the first time we have had threats of default, due to political infighting. the first day since the financial crisis, this is th

downgrade in boosted treasury auctions. we begin with a big issue, making sense of a wild week. >> it is a job report that has something for everybody. >> the u.s. economy continues to power through. >> we curry whether the payroll numbers are telling -- we query whether the payroll numbers are telling the real story. >> u.s. treasury market is not like the other bond markets. >> this is the year of the bond, right? >> you had a rich five to near part of the curve. >> you wonder what is the long and doing for you. >> it is hard to convince people to go towards the long end. katie: joining us now we have rbc play and earl davis of bmo from canadian banks which is a little bit fun. so is your own said, i will start with you. it is hard to know where to start. if you look at 10-year gilts, there of 23 basis points through thursday only to fall 11 basis points today. how do you make sense of that volatility in benchmark treasury debt? >> like a separate -- like the separate things out. you have the fundamentals and then after t

in and try to get more treasuries.ing to see huge market reaction to this tomorrow? >> in all likelihood it will not see a huge market reaction. as we have seen also with government shutdowns and things of that nature, with debt ceiling crises, the more you have these types of activities, the more the market becomes use to them and they know what the playbook is and likely the reaction is the second or third time, it will be muted. we have seen the s&p market knows that it does not need to react and moreover, we have tomorrow, the refining schedule for the treasury which in some ways could have precipitated this move. fitch knew this was coming tomorrow so they wanted to do it with maximum reaction. we have not seen a reaction in the markets, that is very telling about what we should see tomorrow. haidi: what you see as the longer-term impact? was this an initial reaction to the bread and butter of the preoccupied market moves like the fed? >> we will go back to thinking about the end to zero rates and whether we have

clear and flexible from the treasury. i greatly respect coming up with a date and all of the emissions accounting that you guys do, it's incredibly helpful to get into the process and instructive. but they are also models. some of the unknowns we have seen in other cases, like with natural gas, get the market moving out there and see if competition will continue to have drivers from shareholders and investors and the work force of the company trying to become part of the hydrogen economy. low competition, then trying to create their own center there, i don't see people sitting back and taking the easy road. they will try to figure out how they can be the most innovative and efficient and how we can drive down costs. that is where i think there is some risk. >> i'm dying to continue to dive into these questions. but i'm going to take it back a second. you have all talked about uncertainty here and decision-making under uncertainty. what can the treasury do to actually allow itself to not be locked in to any given approach.

every i said is priced off of us treasury's so when such a lowers the rating of the us treasury, it implies that they have lost confidence or a half or less confidence that the us government is able to contain that spending in a way that keeps the dead rising at the size, the, at the speed of the g, d, p, or the, the us economy. 11 of the worst things that can happen is if the spending gets out of control and the size of the debt starts to grow faster than the us economy itself is growing. because that implies the us will be less able to pay the outstanding debt. and right now the, the, the, the government is in a position where it can do something about it. but so far fidget, still telling us that the government has not done the necessary measures to contain the growth of that debt. francis popular uh it just, it really is a shopped across the balance. isn't that? yes, i think it is. i mean, um, i think driving to this actually has to be in the stretch of 2 folds close by the desk. so you should not, because this is not the 1st time we have had the dress, a default on youtube list.

the 2-year treasury against the 10-year treasury note.he shape of the curve and what is happening is it has been st steepening up because people are pricing in the end of the rate hiking cycle and we reached the end of the road for where the 2-year treasury note can go. the 10-year treasury is rising higher and higher. it has been rising faster than the 2-year treasury has been rising i thought it was interesting to note from the perspective that according to the data, the bearish bets on long-term u.s. treasuries are at the highest level since july positioning going into jackson hole today is short. the market is positioned for a move up wwards in the u.s. yiels federal reserve officials at jackson hole are split on the need for further rate hikes adding scrutiny to jay powell's keynote speech later today boston fed president susan collins told reporters the fed may continue to hike rates to see inflation take a more settled path downward. that was at odds with remarks from patrick harker who insisted that now is the time for the fed to

data, not necessarily this wave of treasury issuance. funnily enough, treasury yields are continuing to rise this morning. the 10-year yield is up another four basis points, after claiming nearly 15 this week already. lizzy: let's take our focus back across the pond. across the road actually to threadneedle street. it's bank of england day. the bank is expected to hike by a quarter-point today to 5.25%, as well as its latest forecast for the u.k. economy. silvana has been replaced. you have hot wage growth. the headline inflation number is almost four times the bank of england's target. 50 basis still very much on the table. valerie: market pricing is in the middle, 35 basis points for today. that was price for the previous meeting when they surprised with 50. it's funny, we look at e.m. economies who have maybe not been punished for definition is lately. -- dovishness lately, but developed market economies like japan have been punished for dovishness. the risk is if they don't hike by 50, the currency weakens. maybe they hike by 25, but

as a result, us treasury. so now having to pay higher interest rates to compensate for that higher risk. so what's gonna happen is that for us companies is going to be a partner for them to raise money. it's gonna be hard for them to finance investment, but that's a consequence of this poor and governance structure of the country in which they operate. and i think that's something that most companies have learned to, to live with. and the knowledge that they'll be a higher cost. now, for those who are holders of the us treasury, they'll be compensated with higher interest payments. so again, i think the markets will work itself out in terms of repricing, us treasures in a way that makes people confidence and be able to hold us treasures as a source of savings in terms of i'm trying to understand the market. so you, shaking your head on the let's, let's see what you want to say. oh i, i am so harsh. i completely disagree with my colleagues. first off. uh the uh, it's not about containing spending, it's about in

they actually introduce themselves to me from the treasury accounts under the supervision of the treasury and the central bank should be put in place and, thank god , the majority of the institutions in this field cooperate well. the university of medical sciences has its own income. the universities of medical sciences already had several accounts, which total about 77,000 accounts, which should be opened in this research. only in it should be done in the case of devices that had a valid excuse and we took them from the bank during the facilitation period. remember, how many months will it take us to transfer all the accounts after the end of the education period? this temporary permission has been given, which will be blocked within a few months . unfortunately, some companies do

there's no reason to be selling off treasuries.ything, take the tactical decision and buy the treasuries at this moment. so we're seeing some of that today. but still, 30 year yields climbed by another seven basis points yesterday at one point, german 30 year yields rose to the highest since 2014 on an intraday basis. and the curve yesterday bear steepened again. it's at its closest to zero since may. when it comes to american equity. at first yesterday, the session was one of gains. if we go to the chart, we can see some of that petering out in this morning's futures session, that decline there again, just when the day changes is around the time we got the moody's cut of various regional banks. to some of their credit ratings. will that have an impact on this overall corporate bond market? will that start to be the thing that sets off a cascade of corporate changes to bonds? we are worried about this to default cycle, at least some people are. and that junk bonds have rallied too much. could this be the thing that changes it? chin

thereafter, early 2020, we had sort of peak bullishness for treasuries as the pandemic was breakingurse, this week we got very close to actually those levels that we saw during the taper tantrum in other periods of real bearish sentiment in bonds. i'm kind of inclined to take the other side of the trade here, for a couple of reasons. first of all, the soft landing i think people are a little bit premature on this. there's a lot of economic headwinds that still remain, a lot of the other data we're seeing, even american express increasing their reserves and set aside. this is the most resilient consumers there are. that suggests that consumers are under pressure we know that treasuries are the safe haven in geopolitical and other sort of disruptive events. the other thing i would say is that because options on things like treasuries tend to be relatively inexpensive, making a bullish bet can be a low-cost way to hedge so the way i was looking at this, was simply going out to december, you could buy the par calls, 100 straight calls on tlt, those were about 2.50 when i was looking at

treasuries?t is true but not to bring money home but more to keep it in agencies or other parts of the u.s. fixed income market that has a higher yield better return. i think the idea that we would see anything pronounced would have to be visible in the market and that is still pretty unlikely at this point. the other thing to bear in mind is china is sitting on probably some paper losses that would be extreme just as everybody else's and the treasuries market because of the selloff in the last two years. and this month as well. lizzy: thanks to paul dobson, bloomberg's executive editor for asian markets. coming up, walmart raised its outlook again but strikes a cautious tone on american consumers and the economy. we had a wrap up of this week's u.s. retail earnings next. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> another strong quarter for walmart raising the outlook for the fiscal year for the second time in a row, seeing comparable store sales up 6.3% versus the 4% the analysts were anticipating. it is feeding o

in general, the case that we put on the agenda after the accounts of the final beneficiary's treasury is gone, but now it is happening within the normal limits of the payment of salaries and wages of the employees , the furniture has progressed by more than 80% in this field , but the important part and hard and difficult karun percent it remains to be seen that we directly support this lonely thought regarding the construction payments of the country . to remove the stain of adib khan through the government and the nation and keep his profit, in fact , certain groups, a special company, a brand in this field and the bed of corruption, god willing, ms. zamanbandi label, please announce the timing, especially to the account of the single treasury, which is now only about the sectors that asked for permission. getting it completed in their facilities or a bank guarantee and so on like the oil companies, all the services of the general treasury have been cut off since the beginning of this year, and we are obliged to actually obey the law. the type of closure of the field of corruption a

that is good considering where treasuries are, especially when treasuries are on pace to go down nextr which is the growing consensus among investors. paul: is there any reason to take a look at risk assets, though,, because you can't find pretty decent yield elsewhere with treasuries staying on cash. margie: that is true, but those terms are fleeting. you could get 6.5% in money market yields, but we will see those yields start to drop in a few months if and when the federal reserve begins to lower rates. so we think it is better to look at the long-term, look at good quality equities. equities will once again outproduce anything in the fixed income area for total return. shery: is there any relative good value in the fixed income space? margie: i think the high-yield market below investment grade is actually, for fixed income investor, a pretty good opportunity. good yields are 7.5% and 8%. most are trading at $.90 on the dollar. if you had yields come down, you could have some appreciation plus, the yield is a lot more than treasuries that investment grade. the supply of high-yield

the treasury and the federal reserve have a tremendous amount of influence. so even though it's theory, a council of equal and everybody gets the vote there certainly is a tremendous amount of day to day sway from treasury and the fed. i mean, they have an outside the vote council a bit more in everybody else and to some degree and of course, treasury. the chair so they set the agenda and they so there is a degree to whoever is chairing it does matter and does have an influence, but it also kind of matters how cordial you were because i was involved often in the selection of some of the other members of fsoc. i started with a familiarity with many of the players and so had a pretty good relationship people which is why we had a very cooperative process in 2020 where we started a designation determined whether fannie and freddie were systemic. and again, we did a cooperatively with the fed and treasury and identified a number of problems in the mortgage and just unpack for everyone to determine if fannie and freddie were systemic. what is that that a legal def

lizzy: talk us through the market reaction, the treasury and dollar moves. >> in the late treasury session, the steepening continued. we saw new cycle highs for the 10-year yield, and new cycle highs for the 30-year yield. rates priced in for next year, those cuts priced next year for the fed continually get priced out little by little. the pressure also continues in the yield space overnight. there is still substantial pressure on treasury yields in the asia session, causing issues for the jgb market, we had a 20-your auction in japan that was considerably weak. this global yield pressure is continuing. we're seeing global government yields at 15-year highs. this is a trying to keep your eye on. it has caused upheaval in the equity markets with the s&p retracing nearly 5% since highs in july. lizzy: we will keep an eye on them throughout the program. let's get back to china because according to property agents and private data providers, china's housing slump is much worse than the official data showed. bloomberg's lucille liu is with us now. what are the discrepancies in the home sales d

out the treasury market, because that was not priced in when the treasury made the statement on monday, traders started to really guess, this is not just issuing t-bills just to get that account filled up this is about, we're borrowing a lot of money, because we have fiscal spending that's expansion their. we didn't really change it through the debt ceiling so, you have to borrow to fund it and that means longer maturity bonds have to be borrowed. and i think that's what got priced in today. on the other hand, the downgrade itself, awkward timing, as i heard the discussion it's interesting they referenced january 6th, and really a statement, this is brinksmanship that is going to last. and that's going to become an issue in the future. part of the reaction of the stock market is about someone who comes in the white house in the future, in a future administration, going to have to deal with the deficit and that's a negative scenario. so that may be some what of a reaction in the stock market today. >> you know, whether or not you agree with the downgrade or what, the fact of the matter

see the case for 30 year treasuries.id, where will they settle out given this global backdrop? it's one thing to say there is more room to run for the selloff. it's another thing to say just going forward, it's going to be a higher risk premium on some of the securities simply because of this backdrop. tom: absolutely. we have multiple time horizons because first things first, we have to get through a recession in the next six to 10 months which could easily push treasury yields lower. when we get through that on the others, you are looking at long-term demand for long-duration. again, beginning to deteriorate, so we are talking about treasury yields settling higher highs and higher lows into the next business cycle. so where should 30 year treasury self? realistically, something on the order of 25 to 50 basis points north of 10 year treasuries which should probably start to sell around 5% in the next cycle. that has got to get through this recession first and the next few quarters, but beyond that, around 5%. jonathan:

we're here with aaron from paypal, brian from treasury and matt from the justice department.e will get to money laundering, cybercrime, cryptocurrency, how ai is changing the game or not, what gives you hope, what gives you nightmares? lay on me your best to 62nd swing at this each of you. how does your work look difference then when we were on this stage five years ago. cast your mind back to 2018. i want to start there because they want to give people a taste of how quickly things are moving. we will start with aaron. 6 billion transactions. that is a huge playing field for us. >> very interesting playing field for us commercially, but also my role to protect those customers and transactions. the other accelerating trends are on the bad actors side. they are getting more sophisticated and attacking more at scale than ever. covid and covid relief is a great example of the last five years. we've already scams are estimated between 200 and $200 billion. not from paypal, just overall. part to combat that. we want to stop the bad actors. we also want to enable our customers. we

treasuries and the dollar rallied. cascade of what was going on in the u.s. flight to qualify. we're going to talk about debt issuance, a deficit that's being funded, and essentially, we're monetizing a lot of debt in this country. some -- at some point, debt to gdp ratios and multiples matter. the political circus in washington is something that, yeah, i get that, but that's not the reason and frankly, politics have always been there i think we just happen to know more about our politics than ever, though we want to know less >> yeah, there's a line here, fitch says the u.s. has had limited progress in tackling medium-term challenges related to social security benefits and other benefits >> going to be interesting to see -- now, the gold market should rally on the back of something like this, theoretically. gold had a rough day today i think part of the reason ten-year yields went back above 4% if you are a gold but, these are the types of things, these are the types of stories that could be a catalyst. >> we will als

since the beginning of the 13th government, the full implementation of the treasury account law has been prioritized. we brought up the meeting of the economic headquarters of the government and the president emphasized that these are about 50 other components that have not yet joined the treasury accounts . this must happen by the end of this year. the statistics of the court of accounts indicates that electricity was blocked in individual accounts, including the accounts of universities of medical sciences, at the end of 1401. in the collection of the ministry of science and the ministry of health, about 72 thousand sub-accounts have not yet been transferred , although the spokesperson of the ministry of health says that most of the accounts the universities of medical sciences have been transferred to the central bank. there are a limited number of accounts that in the past years , facilities were obtained with them and through them. that the treasury we are following up on their transfer to the central bank, because some of them have either been issued a guarantee based on that accou

we do get a wave of issuance from the treasury. does that continue to add pressure on the treasury markets? >> we are michelle bowman saying the fed may need to raise rates further. >> i think that will put enough restraint on the economy that it will continue to slow. my outlook is we will still be in a restrictive territory in 2024. >> that was the latest fed speak her. we'll get more from both of them later today. let's turn to geopolitics. a hike on a russian naval vessel and oil tanker signaling a rapidly expanding war. one market intelligence firm seeing frame rates ballooning. the cost of shipping food may rise by as much as 50%. this is a crucial moment. we just had another harvest and it is a crucial avenue. talk us through these moves. it is very crucial avenue. nearly 20% of its oil exports, that is 2.5 million barrels of crude per day going through this transport avenue. the issue was with the backdrop. we have oil already at your highs. they could cause some inflationary pressure. we are not seeing crude bounce very hi

it will be paid today in cooperation with the targeted organization and the treasury.rrow we have, god willing, most of this matter will be paid , god willing, let me point out that in the year 1400, most of it fell in this 13th government. khawam is very difficult for us in the government to provide numbers and inshallah, thanks and duty, i don't know anything special about the farmers, that in the infrastructure resources of germany in 2014, consumption increased, production and nothing special happened, and it is very difficult to estimate this amount . please tell me about the situation of drinking resources and consumption, and that one of the criticisms about wheat is that it is multifaceted, this is the situation of chapter 4 of manto , reforming the budget structure, which is the next focus of our conversation, the leader. sattar's mother is also present in this law this year there are 1,401 items in the office, including domestic sales, which have increased from 100% to 200%. the appearance of good news is not good news, but after that, the export of products

treasuries, i spoke earlier, showing 16-year highs. 10-year treasury is 4.31. 2-year treasury is high of 5%. i believe is the third time we've broken through 5% since 2007. there you have it. third time the 2-year treasury broke 5% since 2007. equity markets are breaking concerns of the rising interest rates. nasdaq and dow opening in the green in positive territory. in terms of data, not a lot to watch out for today. the jackson hole isymposium is the important event on friday. >> we have seen that issue in the equity and bond markets, joumanna. when interest rates rise or yields rise, you see tech stocks suffer. that was not the case yesterday with therally in the nasdaq breaking the four-day losing streak. joumanna, looking at the market expectation for fed futures, rate cuts expectations are pushed back. first rate cut priced in may of 2024. they were expecting a rate cut now. >> let's unpack the drivers. i spent time thinking about it this morning. remember yesterday when we were catching up on what you missed in markets last week? one thing is the data is

we have brian from treasury. that is joining us from the justice department. we are going to get the money laundering, cryptocurrency, how ai is changing the game or not. what gives you hope, what gives you nightmares? i want to start with a quick level set. lay on me your best swing. how does your work look different? 6 billion transactions. that is a huge playing field for us. 20 billion transactions. a very interesting playing field for us commercially. the other exhilarating trends we saw are on the bad actors i. they are getting more sophisticated and attacking more scale than ever. i think covid and covid believe is a great example of the last five years. covid believe as we all read, scams are estimated between 200 and $300 billion. not for paypal, just overall. we certainly did our part to combat that. we want to stop the bad actors. we also want to enable our customers. we had to quickly give it to deal with that sophistication while ensuring the good customers that needed that belief could get it. >> brian, the view from treasury. >> you see the expl

you might have noticed the headlines on the auction for 10 year treasuries. we have been anticipating this and we had the three year option yesterday and there a 30 year auction tomorrow will stop ira jersey -- tomorrow. ira joins us to talk about the success of this current option -- option and how much we expect this week. >> there is -- not quite a record but it is up there and much higher than a lot of astana going into the refunding announcement last week. today's option was decent. they came in where traders thought at 1:00, under 4%. importantly and this is the thing that is shocking or will give relief to people who are word the supply would not be taken down is that indirect vineyard --bidders bought 72% of this option which is the highest this year. a strong option overall. >> are you concerned about tomorrow because i know you are less concerned about the shorter end yesterday, the three year and today is in the middle but tomorrow, we get the long end option -- auction. >> that will be a test on how much derision or market risk investors want to t

we hope that this part of the researcher will enter the treasury with a delay.s a delay compared to the sale . 65 and it is a guidance that nature exists, god willing, in the coming months we hope that this amount can be achieved. we also have tax revenues. about 85 percent of these 24 service workers have been realized, and it is about 220 hemats, of which i think 85 meters will be value added tax and consumption tax. it will be direct for the bad part of the capital assets in the country . and let's do things that are vital from the point of view they are among the first priorities, but last year, more than 100% of the construction budget was realized for the first time. also, it was emphasized that resources of this kind should be used for the place, if at least we use its assets or income , to be the output that results. may he remember the song. if i want to tell you, last year we worked with omrani hammat malik in different tiers . you allocated me 115%. maybe we have a little change to 11%. in the performance of 1480% , the maximum is 91%. it was about 80

treasuries extend a rally. the u.s. curbs its ambition bloomberg learns that investment into restrictions in china are more limited than first expected. plus, after bank stocks stumble, italy clarifies its new tax on windfall profits, saying it will cap. all right, we are going to give it -- get earnings but first let us look at markets because it has been quite the rally in the 10 year yield. we saw a drop by six basis points yesterday. most of the gains on the front end of your screen happened during the asia and europe session. those gains are maintained today, about two basis points. if we can have such a risk off day, such a flight to haven, flight to bonds on such little information, we have a lot about banking stocks --we knew the picture for regional banks underscores the fragility of the summer market. let me show the stocks because yesterday it was banking stocks that led the slide. perhaps there is the idea that the moody's downgrade challenged our current narrative of a soft landing. and that there wouldn't

treasury auctioning three-year notes today.er the next few days. also we will get earnings from rivian and lyft. the first option against the just over an hour -- begins in just over an hour. this is a big event. talk me through the significance of what is about to happen and the set up into it. guest: these auctions occur every month. what's different about this month versus the previous year is the treasury department increased the amount that it is issuing an order to cover higher than expected deficits. i'm not so worried about today's three year auction with treasury yields upwards of 4.5% and it being relatively short term, it's an area where central banks were rebuilding their dollar reserves might participate in today's auction, but tomorrow's 10 year and the 30 year on thursday present more market risk and people were anticipating as of last week. we expected increases of $1 billion in each of those auctions the next two days, but instead we got $3 billion of 10 year and $2 billion of 30 year. will the market be able t